Mighty 955 mb Nor'easter Pounds Canadian Maritime Provinces

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:50 PM GMT on March 27, 2014

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The strongest Nor'easter of 2014 blasted Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia on Wednesday with wind gusts over 100 mph and up to a half meter (19.5") of snow, bringing travel to a standstill and causing power outages that affected about 17,000 customers in Nova Scotia. The mighty storm intensified rapidly on Wednesday afternoon, "bombing" to a central pressure by 2pm EDT of 955 mb--similar to the central pressure of a Category 3 hurricane. The storm's pressure fall of 45 mb in 24 hours is among the greatest on record for a Nor'easter (for comparison, the 1978 Cleveland Superbomb had a pressure drop of 43 millibars in 24 hours, also to 955 mb.) The La Have Bank buoy south of Halifax, Nova Scotia measured a pressure of 957 mb as the center of the storm passed nearby, along with significant wave heights of 29 feet. A wind gust of 129 mph was measured on Wednesday at the Bay of Fundy, and sustained winds of 89 mph with a gust to 115 mph was recorded between 6:30 - 7:30 pm EDT in Wreckhouse, Newfoundland, beating the previous strongest gust of 112 mph set in 2007 (Wreckhouse is named for the terrain-enhanced winds that often cause destruction.) Grand Étangon the Gulf of St Lawrence side of Cape Breton in Nova Scotia recorded top sustained winds of 70 mph, gusting to 102 mph. This location is susceptible to strong "Les Suêtes" winds in this type of setup--"Suêtes" is a dialectal corruption of French "sud-est," or "southeast". These southeasterly winds travel up over Cape Breton and a funneling effect intensifies them as they blow downslope toward the Gulf of St Lawrence. As a result, these gusts are not truly representative of the storm, but rather the storm plus local terrain effects. Environment Canada has a special "Les Suêtes Wind Warning", and issued it for Wednesday's storm.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image taken at approximately 2pm EDT Wednesday March 26, 2014, of the powerful Nor'easter affecting Canda's Maritime provinces. At the time, the storm had a central pressure of 955 mb, and was generating winds over the water of Category 1 hurricane strength (at least 74 mph.) Image credit: NASA.

Thanks go to TWC's Nick Wiltgen, Stu Ostro, Mike Seidel, and Matt Crowther for some of the stats on this storm.

Jeff Masters

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662. JNTenne
2:32 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
What's up with the WU Logo today??
Member Since: May 21, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 566
661. nonblanche
5:05 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Quoting 625. oldnewmex:
Yay!
Greater Lake Tahoe Area


Winter Storm Watch


Statement as of 2:22 AM PDT on March 28, 2014



... Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from late tonight through
late Saturday night...

A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from late tonight through
late Saturday night.

* Timing: light snow Friday night will intensify by early Saturday
morning and continue into Saturday night.

* Snow accumulations: 1 to 2 feet above 7000 feet... with 6 to 10
inches down to lake level are possible.

* Winds: southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Snow levels: 6500 to 7000 feet Saturday morning falling to
lake level Saturday afternoon.

* Impacts: heavy snow may create low visibility along with
hazardous travel conditions. Be prepared for possible delays
and chain controls... especially over Sierra passes.


I know, right? Here just east of Fallon it's high clouds, breeze picking up, looks like from the flag out front that wind's blowing to the northeast. We'll probably still get some sunshine here and there - but I think tomorrow's going to be mostly an indoor chores day with bored, irritable goats blaming it all on me.

The neat thing about a dry climate like this is how little rain it takes to spike more green. Meanwhile 240 miles to the west, Honorable Estranged Spouse is grumbling about how El Nino means he has to cut the patch of grass behind his townhouse, and is wishing I could sneak a goat or two into his yard. :)
Member Since: October 21, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 258
660. redwagon
3:38 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Quoting 658. redwagon:


Doesn't really seem enough cape to allow supercells but they're already firing to the North and West.

OTOH the birds are suddenly real noisy, males herding their families around.


Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3265
659. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:37 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
658. redwagon
3:36 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Quoting 637. hurricanes2018:
severe weather!!


Doesn't really seem enough cape to allow supercells but they're already firing to the North and West.

OTOH the birds are suddenly real noisy, males herding their families around.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3265
657. opal92nwf
3:36 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Yes!!!!

Statement as of 10:31 AM CDT on March 28, 2014

... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until 1115 am CDT
for southeastern Escambia... southeastern Santa Rosa and Okaloosa
counties...

At 1022 am CDT... a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing
quarter size hail and damaging winds over 60 mph were located along a
line extending from 6 miles southeast of Gulf Breeze to 10 miles
southeast of Bagdad to 10 miles northwest of Crestview... moving east
at 30 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Pensacola international Airport... midway...
Ocean City... Fort Walton Beach... Woodlawn Beach...
Tiger Point... Navarre Beach... Holley...
Shalimar...

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 14 and 66.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

These are dangerous storms. Prepare for destructive hail and damaging
winds. People outside should move inside a strong building but away
from windows.


Lat... Lon 3027 8755 3053 8717 3043 8717 3038 8726
3033 8726 3039 8687 3037 8711 3045 8695
3054 8703 3043 8709 3043 8710 3060 8703
3092 8682 3092 8640 3045 8639 3048 8646
3042 8659 3038 8639 3037 8640 3038 8682
time... Mot... loc 1530z 290deg 19kt 3031 8702 3053 8683 3085 8663
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 2677
656. Patrap
3:31 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Its been rumblin and stumblin thru all morn here.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
655. Patrap
3:30 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Quoting 651. Skyepony:
The fire devil throwing flaming tumbleweeds is a must see..nice Rod Burgundy in there too.



Awesomeness, always cool when unexpected.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
653. opal92nwf
3:27 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
These storms look just as or more intense than the big severe events they forecast, which usually turns out to be a less than hugely impressive/barely severe t'storm limit squall line with not even 60 mph winds experienced here.

I find that the worst storms we get usually occur when the mets aren't heavily predicting a big severe storm event.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1027 am EDT Fri Mar 28 2014

Near term [through today]...
active mesoscale convective system across southern Alabama will continue to move slowly
east southeastward today across the Florida Panhandle and adjacent
coastal waters. Local hi-resolution guidance shows the bulk of the
rain associated with this mesoscale convective system moving across our Alabama and
Florida Panhandle zones before spreading offshore. Surface data
show that a rather stable airmass is in place across the region,
so the potential for severe weather is very low.
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 2677
652. Dakster
3:27 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Quoting 643. Tazmanian:



Your late two the party we had a EF0 tornado in California back on Wednesday


I saw it first...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10398
651. Skyepony (Mod)
3:26 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
The fire devil throwing flaming tumbleweeds is a must see..nice Rod Burgundy in there too.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 38110
650. weathermanwannabe
3:25 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Quoting 649. opal92nwf:

Mobile had a severe t'storm warning.


It's looking pretty nasty at the moment along the coast and just off-shore in those parts.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9208
649. opal92nwf
3:24 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Quoting 648. weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Very strong squall line moving off-shore of Pensacola at the moment. Hopefully, the stronger t-storms will stay off-shore of the Panhandle. Will yall know later this afternoon how we fare later in the Tallahassee region.

These type of squall lines usually fall apart just before reaching the Big Bend (because of the stabilizing effect of Appalachee Bay) and then they ramp up again East of us on the way to I-75 and Jacksonville.

Mobile had a severe t'storm warning.
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 2677
648. weathermanwannabe
3:23 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Good Morning. Very strong squall line moving off-shore of Pensacola at the moment. Hopefully, the stronger t-storms will stay off-shore of the Panhandle. Will let yall know later this afternoon how we fare later in the Tallahassee region.

These type of squall lines usually fall apart just before reaching the Big Bend (because of the stabilizing effect of Appalachee Bay) and then they ramp up again East of us on the way to I-75 and Jacksonville.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9208
647. Tazmanian
3:21 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Quoting 642. Andrebrooks:
Tropical Storm Amanda?



Vary unlikely still a bit early yet but with a strong el Nino coming we may see a lot of name storm in May this year the E Pac hurricane season may all ready be showing sings of a early start
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115248
646. opal92nwf
3:20 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Quoting 632. Bluestorm5:
CIPS Analog Guidance of St. Louis University have been getting my attention lately with the last few severe events. Today, this popped up on their Twitter feed suggesting something severe around April 3rd. Last time we had the pink in analog, moderate risk was issued for Tennessee on February 20/21.


Very early April on my birthday, Severe weather seems to have a higher propensity to strike. (for me, usually with a tornado warning)

1999: Experienced a tornado warning near Montgomery, AL. (took shelter in bathroom for a long time)
2006: Tornado warning with actual tornado striking nearby (Close to St. Louis!)
2009: Tornado warning with green skies observed near Ft. Walton Beach, FL. (most scary/serious tornado warned storm I've experienced in FL Panhandle)
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 2677
645. Andrebrooks
3:16 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Quoting 643. Tazmanian:



Your late two the party we had a EF0 tornado in California back on Wednesday
Yep.:)
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 30 Comments: 1108
644. Patrap
3:16 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Orleans Parish

Special Statement

Statement as of 10:06 AM CDT on March 28, 2014

... Line of strong thunderstorms moving east affecting St. Charles
Parish... upper Jefferson Parish... Orleans Parish... upper St. Bernard
Parish...

At 958 am CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists were
tracking a line of strong thunderstorms from near New Orleans to 13
miles southwest of Avondale... moving east at 20 mph.

The line of strong thunderstorms will affect areas in and around...
Bridge City... Lakefront Airport... New Orleans... Westwego... Marrero...
Gretna... Terrytown... Chalmette and Lake Catherine.

These storms are capable of producing wind gusts to near 40
mph... which could down tree limbs and blow around unsecured small
objects. Additionally... frequent lightning is occurring. Seek
shelter in a safe home or building until these storms have passed.

Heavy rainfall of one to two inches in a short period of time will
also be possible with these storms. These rainfall totals could
result in ponding of water around low lying roadways. Remember... do
not drive your vehicle into water covered roadways. The depth may be
too great to allow a safe crossing.

Heavy rain will also result in reduced visibility along area
roadways including interstates 10... 610 and 510. Drivers traveling
through the impacted areas should exercise caution.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
643. Tazmanian
3:15 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Quoting 639. opal92nwf:
Wow, tornado in California



Your late two the party we had a EF0 tornado in California back on Wednesday
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115248
642. Andrebrooks
3:14 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Quoting 635. Tazmanian:
Now this is a little early look what I found its at 10N at. 100W

Tropical Storm Amanda?
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 30 Comments: 1108
641. Andrebrooks
3:14 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 30 Comments: 1108
640. washingtonian115
3:14 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
I don't want a "super el nino".My weather around here will be super boring.Like I'm living in California and not D.C.I know the 2013 atlantic hurricane season was a bore fest but at least the winter made up for that.If the el nino is to strong we'll have a warm rainy winter.Bleh!.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17071
639. opal92nwf
3:13 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Wow, tornado in California

U.S. Storm Report Map
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 2677
638. Tazmanian
3:12 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Its in a area of 5 two 20kt of wind shear wounder if it has a Ch

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115248
637. hurricanes2018
3:11 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
severe weather!!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
636. Andrebrooks
3:10 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Remember you can go to my blog to record any severe weather.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 30 Comments: 1108
635. Tazmanian
3:09 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Now this is a little early look what I found its at 10N at. 100W

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115248
634. Skyepony (Mod)
2:58 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
California hauls young salmon
30 million chinook trucked toward sea due to drought
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 38110
633. Naga5000
2:55 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Quoting 630. jitterboy:
What was the Nor'easter's name? How can we possibly keep safe without knowing the storms name???
Quoting 631. Patrap:
Well, they did not name the Bomb for the simple reason not enough Millions in the US would be affected,and that alone kept many from the "jitter's" one could say maybe?

: P


Yawn. :)
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3436
632. Bluestorm5
2:55 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
CIPS Analog Guidance of St. Louis University have been getting my attention lately with the last few severe events. Today, this popped up on their Twitter feed suggesting something severe around April 3rd. Last time we had the pink in analog, moderate risk was issued for Tennessee on February 20/21.

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8027
631. Patrap
2:54 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Well, they did not name the Bomb for the simple reason not enough Millions in the US would be affected,and that alone kept many from the "jitter's" one could say maybe?

: P
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
630. jitterboy
2:52 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
What was the Nor'easter's name? How can we possibly keep safe without knowing the storms name???
Member Since: December 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 128
629. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:50 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Quoting 615. ncstorm:
So can someone explain to me the difference between a super El Nino and a Modoki El Nino..couldn't find much on what a "super" El Nino is..

Please be gentle..

As others have said, there's no official criteria for a "Super El Nino", it was dubbed much like "Superstorm Sandy" was. Anyways, in a traditional El Nino, the warmest waters (relative to average) are focused off the coast of South America. In a Modoki El Nino, the warmest waters are focused in the central Pacific, somewhere south of Hawaii.

Aug 2004 (Modoki):



Nov 1997 (Traditional, Super):

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
628. Patrap
2:50 PM GMT on March 28, 2014

Smoke billowing from a plant in Tokyo Bay, Japan. Government officials and scientists are gathered in Yokohama this week ahead of the launch of the IPCC report. Photograph: Franck Robichon/EPA

IPCC report: climate change felt 'on all continents and across the oceans'
Leaked text of blockbuster report says changes in climate have already caused impacts on natural and human systems


Suzanne Goldenberg in Yokohama

theguardian.com, Friday 28 March 2014 08.28 EDT

Climate change has already left its mark "on all continents and across the oceans", damaging food crops, spreading disease, and melting glaciers, according to the leaked text of a blockbuster UN climate science report due out on Monday.

Government officials and scientists are gathered in Yokohama this week to wrangle over every line of a summary of the report before the final wording is released on Monday – the first update in seven years.

Nearly 500 people must sign off on the exact wording of the summary, including the 66 expert authors, 271 officials from 115 countries, and 57 observers.

But governments have already signed off on the critical finding that climate change is already having an effect, and that even a small amount of warming in the future could lead to "abrupt and irreversible changes", according to documents seen by the Guardian.

"In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans," the final report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will say.

Some parts of the world could soon be at a tipping point. For others, that tipping point has already arrived. "Both warm water coral reef and Arctic ecosystems are already experiencing irreversible regime shifts," the approved version of the report will say.

This will be the second of three reports on the causes, consequences of and solutions to climate change, drawing on researchers from around the world.

The first report, released last September in Stockholm, found humans were the "dominant cause" of climate change, and warned that much of the world's fossil fuel reserves would have to stay in the ground to avoid catastrophic climate change.

This report will, for the first time, look at the effects of climate change as a series of risks – with those risks multiplying as temperatures warm.

The thinking behind the decision was to encourage governments to prepare for the full range of potential consequences under climate change.

"It's much more about what are the smart things to do then what do we know with absolute certainty," said Chris Field, one of the co-chairs overseeing the report. "If we want to take a smart approach to the future, we need to consider a full range of possible outcomes and that means not only the more likely outcomes, but also outcomes for truly catastrophic impacts, even if those are lower probability," he said.

The gravest of those risks was to people in low-lying coastal areas and on small islands, because of storm surges, coastal flooding and sea-level rise.

But people living in large urban areas would also be at risk from inland flooding that wipes out homes and businesses, water treatment centres and power plants, as well as from extreme heatwaves.

Food production was also at risk, the report said, from drought, flooding, and changing rainfall patterns. Crop yields could decline by 2% a decade over the rest of the century.

Fisheries will also be affected, with ocean chemistry thrown off balance by climate change. Some fish in the tropics could become extinct. Other species, especially in northern latitudes, are on the move.

Drought could put safe drinking water in short supply. Storms could wipe out electricity stations, and damage other infrastructure, the report is expected to say.

Those risks will not be borne equally, according to draft versions of the report circulated before the meeting. The poor, the young and the elderly in all countries will all be more vulnerable to climate risks.

Climate change will slow down economic growth, and create new "poverty traps". Some areas of the world will also be more vulnerable – such as south Asia and south-east Asia.

The biggest potential risk, however, was of a number of those scenarios unfolding at the same time, leading to conflicts and wars, or turning regional problem into a global crisis, said Saleemul Haq, a senior fellow of the International Institute for Environment and Development and one of the authors of the report.

"The really scary impacts are when things start getting together globally," he said. "If you have a crisis in two or three places around the world, suddenly it's not a local crisis. It is a global crisis, and the repercussions of things going bad in several different places are very severe."

There was controversy in the run-up to the report's release when one of the 70 authors of a draft said he had pulled out of the writing team because it was "alarmist" about the threat. Prof Richard Tol, an economist at Sussex University, said he disagreed with some findings of the summary. But British officials branded his assessment of the economic costs of climate change as "deeply misleading".

The report argues that the likelihood and potential consequences of many of these risks could be lowered if ambitious action is taken to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change. It also finds that governments – if they act now – can help protect populations from those risks.

But the report also acknowledges that a certain amount of warming is already locked in, and that in some instances there is no way to escape the effects of climate change.

The 2007 report on the effects of climate change contained an error that damaged the credibility of the UN climate panel, the erroneous claim that Himalayan glaciers could melt away by 2035.

This year's report will be subject to far more rigorous scrutiny, scientists said. It will also benefit from an explosion of scientific research. The number of scientific publications on the impacts of climate change doubled between 2005 and 2010, the report will say.

Researchers said they also hoped to bring a fresh take on the issue. They said they hoped the reframing of the issue as a series of risks would help governments respond more rapidly to climate change.

"Previously the IPCC was accused of being very conservative," said Gary Yohe, professor of economics and environmental studies at Wesleyan University, one of the authors of the report. "This allows them to be less conservative without being open to criticism that they are just trying to scare people to death."
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
627. VR46L
2:49 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Quoting 615. ncstorm:
So can someone explain to me the difference between a super El Nino and a Modoki El Nino..couldn't find much on what a "super" El Nino is..

Please be gentle..


I think its just one of those hype terms that are bandied around to illustrate how bad some people think its going to be ....
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
626. Tazmanian
2:49 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
CA may have one of the most wettest Rainey season on record this coming fall if we do get a super el Nino in fact I think CA rainy season may start has early has Sep with rain ch likely in June-AUGUST from lift over TS and hurricanes that make. It this way from the E PAC all so monsoon season could be nuts this year
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115248
625. oldnewmex
2:46 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Yay!
Greater Lake Tahoe Area


Winter Storm Watch


Statement as of 2:22 AM PDT on March 28, 2014



... Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from late tonight through
late Saturday night...

A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from late tonight through
late Saturday night.

* Timing: light snow Friday night will intensify by early Saturday
morning and continue into Saturday night.

* Snow accumulations: 1 to 2 feet above 7000 feet... with 6 to 10
inches down to lake level are possible.

* Winds: southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Snow levels: 6500 to 7000 feet Saturday morning falling to
lake level Saturday afternoon.

* Impacts: heavy snow may create low visibility along with
hazardous travel conditions. Be prepared for possible delays
and chain controls... especially over Sierra passes.
Member Since: January 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 166
624. Patrap
2:44 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
That was a "Guest entry" here and a well written and informative one fer sure.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
623. ncstorm
2:42 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Quoting 616. Patrap:


An El Niño Coming in 2014?
By: Michael Ventrice, 8:58 AM CST on February 21, 2014



thanks Pat..reading it now..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15644
622. hydrus
2:42 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21407
621. hurricanes2018
2:41 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
heary rain moving in soon
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
620. Naga5000
2:41 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Quoting 615. ncstorm:
So can someone explain to me the difference between a super El Nino and a Modoki El Nino..couldn't find much on what a "super" El Nino is..

Please be gentle..


Super only refers to the strength and is not an actual term. Similar to 1998 in strength.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3436
619. Patrap
2:40 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
The El Niño Modoki

El Niño Modoki is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon in the tropical Pacific. It is different from another coupled phenomenon in the tropical Pacific namely, El Niño. Conventional El Niño is characterized by strong anomalous warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific (see figure below). Whereas, El Niño Modoki is associated with strong anomalous warming in the central tropical Pacific and cooling in the eastern and western tropical Pacific (see figure below). Associated with this distinct warming and cooling patterns the teleconnections are very different from teleconnection patterns of the conventional El Niño. Hence, the new phenomenon is of interest to the climate community.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
618. TimSoCal
2:39 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Quoting 615. ncstorm:
So can someone explain to me the difference between a super El Nino and a Modoki El Nino..couldn't find much on what a "super" El Nino is..

Please be gentle..


I don't think there's a true definition, but I'd probably say when the official Nino 3.4 3-month average goes above +2.0C. This has only happened twice since measurements began, 1982-83 and 1997-98.
Member Since: July 9, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 768
617. ILwthrfan
2:39 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Quoting 595. yonzabam:


It looks as if a large portion of the warmth that the ocean has 'borrowed' from the surface may be about to be repaid. This will probably result in a record global temperature record in 2015.

Whatever will the 'it hasn't warmed since 1998' brigade do then?


I think we as a group spend too much attention to every specific detail of whatever the next event or series of events to occur that will immediately support or contradict human induced climate change.

The correlation between increasing CO2 vs. it's capability of trapping heat in earths system is a FACT.

But your not going to see a 1 to 1 relationship between the two on such ridiculous small time scales and the 30 year time scale is easily included within that analysis. It's not accurate enough. You need to get the bigger picture to filter out the small forces.

So it's important to not tie this event specifically to the theory, other than that frequency of the intensity of events WILL increase over time in world that continues to trap more energy within it's system. How long it takes for that system to catch up to the C02 concentrations is the only question left need answering, not "if". Whether it's 50 years, 100 years, or 1,000 years, we can't be sure, but what we are sure of is that it WILL most definitely catch up with it as evident with the larger time scales as shown below.

I really think that is the biggest issue in communicating the difficulty we have in the comprehension of the science itself.



Jared
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1526
616. Patrap
2:38 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Quoting 615. ncstorm:
So can someone explain to me the difference between a super El Nino and a Modoki El Nino..couldn't find much on what a "super" El Nino is..

Please be gentle..


An El Niño Coming in 2014?
By: Michael Ventrice, 8:58 AM CST on February 21, 2014
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
615. ncstorm
2:35 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
So can someone explain to me the difference between a super El Nino and a Modoki El Nino..couldn't find much on what a "super" El Nino is..

Please be gentle..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15644
614. ricderr
2:34 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Chance of El Nino by winter increases
ABC Rural By Catherine McAloon
PrintEmailFacebookMore services
10
Updated Wed 26 Mar 2014, 12:51pm AEDT
Sun sets over Mount Gambier
PHOTO: Chances of an El Nino, which brings hotter and drier conditions to eastern Australia, have increased for 2014. (Kate Hill: ABC South East)
RELATED STORY: US atmospheric scientists predict intense El Nino

AUDIO: Weather bureau releases EL Nino update, seasonal outlook (ABC Rural)
MAP: Melbourne 3000
The Bureau of Meteorology says the chances of an El Nino event, which brings drier and warmer conditions to eastern and northern Australia, occurring later this year have increased.

Andrew Watkins, manager of climate prediction services at the Bureau of Meteorology, says most of the models the bureau monitors are now indicating El Nino thresholds could be met later this year.

"They're ramping up their probabilities of El Nino through the winter, and indeed most of the models we survey now are saying El Nino thresholds should be met around about August," Dr Watkins said.

And the bureau's long-term outlook is forecasting the big dry to continue in Queensland and parts of New South Wales.

The outlook for April to June is also forecasting drier than normal conditions in the Top End.

In contrast, south-west W.A, and western parts of South Australia, can expect a wetter than usual start to winter.

Daytime temperatures are expected to be warmer in much of south-eastern Australia, while night time temperatures will be warmer than normal across the country.

Dr Watkins, says the climate in eastern Australia is being influenced by increasing temperatures in the tropical pacific ocean - often a pre-cursor to an El Nino.

"That tends to give drier conditions through eastern Australia and northern Australia as well.

"But over in the west what we are seeing is the impact of relatively warm conditions out in the central Indian Ocean.

"That central Indian Ocean warming up is tending to give greater evaporation over the ocean, giving greater moisture of Western Australia, and hence the chance of wetter than normal conditions."

Dr Watkins says in the last couple of weeks there have been significant changes observed in the temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean.

"It's really the temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean that drives El Nino and La Nina events.

"The tropical Pacific has been warming up over the last couple of weeks, by about 0.4 of a degree."

He says while an El Nino increases the odds of dry conditions in Australia, it doesn't necessarily guarantee them.

"We've seen about 26 El Nino events over the past century or so. About 17 of them have resulted in drought."

Dr Watkins says it's too early to predict whether it could be a weak, or strong, El Nino, and the strength of an El Nino doesn't necessarily equate to the level of impact for Australia.

"We've seen very strong El Ninos, such as 1997-98, still have dry conditions, but not as strong as you may have expected, given the strength of the event.

"We've also had relatively weak El Ninos, such as 2006-07, have quite strong impacts for Australia."
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21728
613. Skyepony (Mod)
2:32 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Like years past when this has gone off the scale (like 1997 when the T-depth anomaly chart only went to +4).. I'd bet the core of that is greater than 6, from the size of +6 compared to temp gradient in the rest of it..

Upping some of my odds...

85% of El Nino conditions occurring in the next 7-11weeks. 75% chance this gets declared an offical EL Nino (that persists for 5 months) & 45% chance it becomes a Super El Niño..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 38110
612. StormTrackerScott
2:24 PM GMT on March 28, 2014
Quoting 609. hydrus:
It appears that it is growing and picking up speed.


With each passing week the Kelvin Wave is getting more and more intense. We may need a bigger scale to accommodate this years El-Nino.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3242

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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