Winter of 2013 - 2014: Top-10 Coldest in Midwest; Warmest on Record in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:19 PM GMT on March 14, 2014

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The winter of 2013 - 2014 will go down in the history books in the Midwest U.S. as a top-ten coldest winter on record, but ranked as the warmest winter on record in California. Temperatures averaged over December 2013 - February 2014 in the contiguous U.S. made it our 34th coolest winter since records began in 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. The last winter that was colder was 2009 - 2010, which ranked 15th coolest. For comparison, the winter of 2012 - 2013 was the 20th warmest, and the "non-winter" of 2011 - 2012 was the 4th warmest. Seven states had a top-ten coldest winter on record in 2013 - 2014: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan. Three states had a top-ten warmest winter on record: California, Arizona, and Alaska. The Southwest had an unusually dry winter, with California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas all recording top-ten dryness. For the nation as a whole, it was the 9th driest winter on record. The winter average snow cover extent for the contiguous U.S. was the 10th largest since record keeping began in 1966.


Figure 1. Perhaps the most iconic image of the U.S. winter of 2013 - 2014: Traffic gridlock in Atlanta on Tuesday afternoon, January 28, 2014 after Winter Storm Leon brought 2.6" of snow, shutting down the city. Image credit: @beercontrol/twitter.

25th most extreme U.S. winter since 1910
The U.S. winter of 2013 - 2014 had the 25th highest level of extremes observed since 1910, thanks primarily to the spatial extent of cold maximum and minimum temperatures and days with precipitation, according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI). The index tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. For the Western U.S. (California and Nevada), it was the most extreme winter on record, primarily because 84% of the region experienced top-10% dryness.


Figure 2. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for the winter of 2013 - 2014. Seven Midwest states had a top-ten coldest winter on record, but it was the warmest winter on record in California. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 3. Historical precipitation ranking for the U.S. for the winter of 2013 - 2014. California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas all had top-ten driest winters on record; no states had a top-ten wettest winter. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 4. Despite cool winters in 2013 - 2014 and 2009 - 2010, wintertime (December, January, February) temperatures in the contiguous U.S. have increased by about 2°F over the past 100 years. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 5. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for California for the winter period December, January, and February. The winter of 2013 - 2014 had the most severe drought conditions since record keeping began in 1895. January and February 2014 also set records for most severe drought conditions ever recorded in those months. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

February 2013: 37th coolest February for the U.S.
February 2013 was cooler than average in the contiguous U.S, ranking as the 37th coolest February since 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin each had a top-ten cold February, and Arizona, California, and Utah each had a top-ten warmest February. There were 1.75 times as many record cold daily highs (2,205) and lows (1,276), compared to record warm daily highs (945) and lows (1,043.)

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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1542. indianrivguy
2:56 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Quoting 1496. Sfloridacat5:


We need the rain down here.
I was speaking from a severe weather potential point of view.

We can take every drop of rain we can get from this system down here.
As mentioned, my rain station has only picked up 1.68" in the past 2 months. We also had a brush fire break out near some homes just the other day.


Our perspectives are different. I am concerned about the Everglades watershed because I do not want any more discharges for Okeechobee Lake into our estuaries. Only a long term drought will help the St. Lucie estuaries recover.

If you don't have it already, you might enjoy this web site. Go Hydrology!
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2564
1541. Articuno
2:36 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2465
1540. weathermanwannabe
2:33 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
I have a creek in the back yard (North of Tallahassee) and the water flow was pretty healthy back there yesterday but nothing like Tropical Storm Faye several years back when the entire back yard up to the house and basement flooded after 22-24 inches of training bands in Tally.  I measure rainfall at my location, not by inches, but by how close the water gets to the house............ 
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9234
1539. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:32 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1538. jrweatherman
2:31 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Quoting 1537. StormTrackerScott:
Quite the light show just off Tampa right now and these storms edging closer and closer to the coast.



Those strong storms are barley moving to the coast. It seems like they were in the same spot 3 hours ago.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 989
1537. StormTrackerScott
2:28 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Quite the light show just off Tampa right now and these storms edging closer and closer to the coast.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3327
1536. hydrus
2:28 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Quoting 1534. sar2401:

Wasn't ACARS. That supposedly was turned off 16 minutes into the flight, although Malaysia is changing that again this morning. It was the Boeing Aircraft Health Maintenance System (BAHMS). Malaysian didn't subscribe to this system, so the only data was a once an hour ping to a passive transponder built into the aircraft. The data sent back was only that a positive response was received, not any altitude or location. The arcs were developed by triangulating 7 pings from two satellites. Anyone who's done triangulation knows how reliable that result is. The Malaysian air defense radar contacts have still never been confirmed as MH370, since Malaysia says they allowed this identified aircraft to fly across their territory and made no attempt to intercept the flight. It's all pretty flimsy stuff to move a search 4500 miles away from the planned flight path
What a sad and horrible mess.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21418
1535. sar2401
2:25 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Quoting Jedkins01:



The radar has underestimated totals by a long shot, it estimates Tallahassee has received around 2 to 2.5 inches but actual total is over 4.5.

Similar results can be found around the Big Bend.

It actually got my total almost exactly right. I'm going out and buying a lottery ticket. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16117
1534. sar2401
2:21 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Quoting beell:


They're not searching on the original flight path because the ACARS pings along with the last known contact with military radar places the plane west of path.


(left click for full image, right click, select "open in new window" for same)


NYTimes-March 15th

So far, the published info has focused on this last hourly "ping". What we have not been shown is the 5-6 (?) preceeding pings and arcs of position.

Wasn't ACARS. That supposedly was turned off 16 minutes into the flight, although Malaysia is changing that again this morning. It was the Boeing Aircraft Health Maintenance System (BAHMS). Malaysian didn't subscribe to this system, so the only data was a once an hour ping to a passive transponder built into the aircraft. The data sent back was only that a positive response was received, not any altitude or location. The arcs were developed by triangulating 7 pings from two satellites. Anyone who's done triangulation knows how reliable that result is. The Malaysian air defense radar contacts have still never been confirmed as MH370, since Malaysia says they allowed this identified aircraft to fly across their territory and made no attempt to intercept the flight. It's all pretty flimsy stuff to move a search 4500 miles away from the planned flight path
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16117
1533. hydrus
2:17 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21418
1532. Sfloridacat5
2:14 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Here's our precipitation break down in Fort Myers.
Pretty big spread from dry season 1.71" (December) to rainy season 10.14" (August).

City
Fort Myers
State
Florida

Average Annual Precipitation
55.93 inches


January
1.94 inches

February
2.15 inches

March
2.88 inches

April
2.18 inches

May
2.65 inches

June
10.09 inches

July
9.04 inches

August
10.14 inches

September
8.31 inches

October
2.88 inches

November
1.96 inches

December
1.71
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1531. hydrus
2:14 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21418
1530. StormTrackerScott
2:13 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Quoting 1529. Jedkins01:



The radar has underestimated totals by a long shot, it estimates Tallahassee has received around 2 to 2.5 inches but actual total is over 4.5.

Similar results can be found around the Big Bend.


Thundering here on the northside of Orlando. Line of storms is getting closer to Tampa now.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3327
1529. Jedkins01
2:10 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Quoting 1489. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Tallahassee, FL (KTLH) - Storm Total Precipitation




The radar has underestimated totals by a long shot, it estimates Tallahassee has received around 2 to 2.5 inches but actual total is over 4.5.

Similar results can be found around the Big Bend.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7604
1528. sar2401
2:07 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


We need the rain down here.
I was speaking from a severe weather potential point of view.

We can take every drop of rain we can get from this system down here.
As mentioned, my rain station has only picked up 1.68" in the past 2 months. We also had a brush fire break out near some homes just the other day.

I got 1.15" out of this yesterday, so it is a wet system. That still only brings me up 1.40" for the month, so we could use more rain also. Doesn't look like anything else is on the way until at least next weekend, and that doesn't look like much right now.
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1527. GeoffreyWPB
2:04 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11278
1526. Jedkins01
2:04 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Quoting 1521. Sfloridacat5:
One good thing based on the radar is the strongest storms are staying off shore.
Could get a nasty squall line develop on the southern end of the line out in the GOM.



They are staying off shore because the system is slow moving, not because they are trying to avoid land. Don't be fooled, this squall line has plenty of support throughout the day, in fact if you look at the models and SPC synopsis, dynamic support for Central and South Florida will be even better as the day goes. That is, this is a slow moving system, but not a weakening one, when the line finally does reach the coast, its slow progress will likely lead to heavy totals potentially of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7604
1525. Jedkins01
2:00 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Quoting 1481. StormTrackerScott:
The pattern for the rest of this month looks extremely stormy for FL infact some of the GFS ensembles have been consistantly showing 10" to 15" of rain over the next 2 weeks across FL.

Here's the Euro thru day 10. This more than what we would normally get the whole month of March. Literally one storm system after another is going to cross the FL over the next few weeks.






The average March precip in Clearwater FL is 3.81 inches, and similar for much of Central Florida. While it is the drier season, it isn't really that dry on average when you compare it to many places in the country that average similar totals per month, in fact the dry season average total for all dry season months added is around 23 inches which isn't as dry as one would think for a whole dry season. Compare this to places like California which has a true "dry" season where its normal to go 7 to 8 months with less than a few inches of rain.


Also, the drier season months are often feast or famine, that is the totals we see is the mean, but there have been some years with less than an inch of rain in a month but some years we get 5,6 or more inches during these months, which often depends on El Nino or La Nina, Neutral years often result in totals slightly above or slightly below rather than well above or well below like El Nino or La Nina typically produce.



Given all this though, its not rare to see patterns like this this time of year, some years its wet, some years it not, the dry season is really the hit or miss season rather than a true dry season. We can and do occasionally get very heavy rain this time of year.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7604
1524. sar2401
1:59 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Quoting ricderr:

in California 4.7!!
in California 4.7!!




when it gets above 6 I get excited

LOL. A 4.7 in LA means some people just woke up early.

EDIT: Or a 4.4...
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1523. sar2401
1:58 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Enrique Iglesias is going to perform outdoors in New York City where it's 25 degrees.
He said yesterday he was enjoying 85 degrees at his home of Miami Fl.

That's a shock to the system. Poor Enrique.

He'll probably die of hypothermia. I know I would. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16117
1522. sar2401
1:56 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Quoting MahFL:


To be fair they could have been en route to their designated search area at a high altitude cruising level.

Generally, handout pictures are taken to at least simulate searchers taking some kind of active role in their jobs. Now Malaysia is again reversing their timeline, saying they're not sure when the ACARS system was turned off. I have never been involved in a search where, 10 days into it, the timeline keeps changing.
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1521. Sfloridacat5
1:51 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
One good thing based on the radar is the strongest storms are staying off shore.
Could get a nasty squall line develop on the southern end of the line out in the GOM.
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1520. jrweatherman
1:50 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Quoting 1519. MahFL:


Don't you mean crawling eastwards ?


You got me:) It'still early...
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 989
1519. MahFL
1:49 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Quoting 1518. jrweatherman:


Looking at the lightning detector, the heavy concentration is still is bit offshore and is crawling westward. Let's see if it holds together.


Don't you mean crawling eastwards ?
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1518. jrweatherman
1:47 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Quoting 1510. LargoFl:
new port richey etc..almost to you folks.........


Looking at the lightning detector, the heavy concentration is still is bit offshore and is crawling westward. Let's see if it holds together.
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1517. Tropicsweatherpr
1:45 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel · 2 min
Earthquake near Los Angeles revised down to a 4.4 per USGS: http://wxch.nl/1fCJPx4

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14332
1516. MahFL
1:44 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Pretty sad excuse for a search.


To be fair they could have been en route to their designated search area at a high altitude cruising level.
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1515. ricderr
1:44 PM GMT on March 17, 2014

in California 4.7!!
in California 4.7!!




when it gets above 6 I get excited
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21758
1514. hurricanes2018
1:40 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
in California 4.7!!
in California 4.7!!
Los Angeles 4.7!!
Earthquake near Los Angeles revised down to a 4.4
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 53562
1513. hurricanes2018
1:33 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
ice storm tonight
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 53562
1512. RickWPB
1:32 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
I hope West Palm Beach gets some rain from this one. The last one we only got a trace of rain.
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1511. Michfan
1:21 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Its going to be a nasty lunch to dinner time in Orlando.
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1510. LargoFl
1:12 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
new port richey etc..almost to you folks.........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39264
1509. LargoFl
1:11 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
still just to my north..booming wow..........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39264
1508. LargoFl
1:09 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Big booming in the distance along with lightning flashers..guess we here are going to get the whole nine yards with this one..well im ready..gutters clean,all the light stuff taken in etc..just hope we dont lose power.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39264
1507. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:04 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54434
1506. StormTrackerScott
1:03 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Quoting 1504. LargoFl:
YES real gusty winds here on the coast scott..this one might turn bad with daytime heating too..


Looks like SPC is about to issue a tornado watch for C FL.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3327
1505. StormTrackerScott
1:03 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Quoting 1502. LargoFl:
REAL BAD WINDS..........................Special Weather Statement

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
852 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014

FLZ043-242-171330-
SUMTER-INLAND CITRUS-
852 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN SUMTER
AND SOUTHEASTERN CITRUS COUNTIES FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS VALID UNTIL 930 AM EDT...

AT 852 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR HEATHERWOOD...OR NEAR INVERNESS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH WILL AFFECT HEATHERWOOD...INVERNESS...
INVERNESS AIRPORT AND RUTLAND.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL
OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.


&&

LAT...LON 2881 8247 2897 8223 2896 8196 2896 8195
2888 8195 2866 8235
TIME...MOT...LOC 1252Z 235DEG 31KT 2879 8232

$$


Largo there is a dangerous storm about to come ashore in Pasco County.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3327
1504. LargoFl
1:02 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Quoting 1500. StormTrackerScott:
Very dangerous weather about to come ashore near Tampa and it is important that people heed all warnings as there is a rotating thunderstorm getting closer to the west coast of FL now.

YES real gusty winds here on the coast scott..this one might turn bad with daytime heating too..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39264
1503. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:01 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54434
1502. LargoFl
1:01 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
REAL BAD WINDS..........................Special Weather Statement

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
852 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014

FLZ043-242-171330-
SUMTER-INLAND CITRUS-
852 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN SUMTER
AND SOUTHEASTERN CITRUS COUNTIES FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS VALID UNTIL 930 AM EDT...

AT 852 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR HEATHERWOOD...OR NEAR INVERNESS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH WILL AFFECT HEATHERWOOD...INVERNESS...
INVERNESS AIRPORT AND RUTLAND.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL
OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.


&&

LAT...LON 2881 8247 2897 8223 2896 8196 2896 8195
2888 8195 2866 8235
TIME...MOT...LOC 1252Z 235DEG 31KT 2879 8232

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39264
1501. StormTrackerScott
1:01 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
I can say this Dewpoints are nearing 70 now in Orlando and it is very breezy as well with winds from the South.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3327
1500. StormTrackerScott
1:00 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Very dangerous weather about to come ashore near Tampa and it is important that people heed all warnings as there is a rotating thunderstorm getting closer to the west coast of FL now.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3327
1499. StormTrackerScott
12:58 PM GMT on March 17, 2014

<>img src=" MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0196
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 171252Z - 171515Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING
TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING. THIS MAY
NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS OR SO.

DISCUSSION...A CORRIDOR OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER THE EAST GULF/LOOP CURRENT INVOF A
NE/SW-ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS WITHIN A WARM CONVEYOR
IMPLIED BY OVERNIGHT MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY. SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ROUGHLY ALIGNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY THAT
EXTENDS FROM BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE GULF TO NRN FL.
THETA-E DEFICITS OWING TO PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING ROUGHLY
N OF A LINE FROM CITRUS TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTIES ARE REINFORCING
THIS BOUNDARY. S OF THE BOUNDARY...POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
SUPPORTING AN INFLUX OF MIDDLE-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS AMIDST SFC-BASED
EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS PER 12Z TBW...MFL...AND KEY RAOBS. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEWPOINTS LIE ALONG THE W FL COAST NEAR AND S OF TAMPA WHERE
SOME ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT OFF THE E GULF IS BREEDING AN INLAND
MANIFESTATION OF LATENT HEAT FLUXES ATOP THE WARMER GULF WATERS.

TBW VWP DATA INDICATE 50-65 KT OF SWLY/WSWLY FLOW IN THE 4-7-KM-AGL
LAYER -- I.E. POSSESSING SOME /ALBEIT LIMITED/ COMPONENT ORTHOGONAL
TO THE AMALGAMATION OF E-GULF MESO-BETA-SCALE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER A GRADUAL NET EWD MOTION OF THE
STRONGER CONVECTION TOWARD THE W FL COAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...MODEST DIURNAL SFC-LAYER HEATING BENEATH THE
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY...SHED DOWNSTREAM OF ONGOING
CONVECTION...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION TO THE S
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY. ALREADY...THE 12Z TBW RAOB
INDICATES AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH NEGLIGIBLE MLCINH.

THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW
WITH A 35 KT LLJ SAMPLED BY THE TBW AND MLB VWP/S AND THE 12Z TBW
RAOB WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY CONSIST OF QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS WITH
EMBEDDED LEWP/BOWING STRUCTURES COMING OFF THE GULF WATERS AND
SPREADING ACROSS THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE DAY --
ESPECIALLY AFTER 1430Z. AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH OF
A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ENTERING THE NW GULF...HIGH-MOMENTUM AIR JUST
ABOVE THE SFC WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
FURTHERMORE...THE 12Z TBW RAOB ALREADY INDICATES AROUND 30 KT OF
0-1-KM SHEAR...AND THE MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR IN THIS LAYER SHOULD
INCREASE AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY FOSTER
LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES.

AT THIS TIME...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF
INITIATION OF MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS SUPPORTED BY INLAND DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CLOUDS
COULD IMPEDE THIS PROCESS TO SOME EXTENT IN THE SHORT-TERM...THOUGH
AT LEAST SOME GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE MORNING.">
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3327
1498. StormTrackerScott
12:56 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Probably some waterspouts being spawned with this cell west of Tampa. Will be interesting to see if the SPC folks pull the trigger and issue a tornado watch across C FL as these cells look downright nasty and they are intensifying as they are getting closer to the coast.

Very dangerous storm looks like it will come ashore near New Port Richey

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3327
1497. StormTrackerScott
12:43 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Here's a closer look. I'm sure if you are in Clearwater you are seeing a light show over the Gulf right now as there are thousands of lightning strikes with these storms.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3327
1496. Sfloridacat5
12:43 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Quoting 1492. indianrivguy:


as long as it stays north of Orlando, it doesn't enter the Everglades watershed.. and Okeechobee lake. We are not even partially recovered from the 370 BILLION gallons that were dumped on the St. Lucie estuary yet..


We need the rain down here.
I was speaking from a severe weather potential point of view.

We can take every drop of rain we can get from this system down here.
As mentioned, my rain station has only picked up 1.68" in the past 2 months. We also had a brush fire break out near some homes just the other day.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7406
1495. georgevandenberghe
12:40 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
8" of fluffy snow on grassy areas and elevated surfaces. Less than 4" on roads and its still slushy. No school for anyone and Fed offices are closed which means under terms of my contract I can't go in to my office.

It started as snow around 6PM sunday and some impressive rates occurred around midnight.

St Patrick's day is traditional potato planting time here but not this year (truth is they could have gone in yesterday and would be fine but I was busy)


Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 18 Comments: 1828
1494. StormTrackerScott
12:39 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Tampa area is going to get hit hard in a few hours as there is a backward C forming in the Gulf and heading for the Tampa area.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3327
1493. georgevandenberghe
12:37 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Quoting 1473. Sfloridacat5:


Washington D.C. is expecting temps in the 60s by the end of the week.
Spring is on its way and there's no stopping her.

Most of D.C.'s snow on the ground will be gone by Wednesday, if not by late tomorrow afternoon.



Spring will make a transient flash-by

Our horrible mind destroying life draining SUMMER is on the way and there's no stopping her.
Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 18 Comments: 1828
1492. indianrivguy
12:32 PM GMT on March 17, 2014
Quoting 1485. Sfloridacat5:


Not much movement to the South with the line. That's not good for the southern half of Fl.



as long as it stays north of Orlando, it doesn't enter the Everglades watershed.. and Okeechobee lake. We are not even partially recovered from the 370 BILLION gallons that were dumped on the St. Lucie estuary yet..
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2564

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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