Save the Keeling Curve!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:13 PM GMT on March 11, 2014

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Climate change's most iconic research project is in danger--a victim of budget cuts in an era of increased government belt-tightening. The Keeling Curve is a measurement of the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere made atop Hawaii’s Mauna Loa, begun in 1958 by Dr. Charles Keeling. It is the longest-running such measurement in the world. The curve was instrumental in showing how human emissions of carbon dioxide were steadily accumulating in Earth's atmosphere, and raised awareness that human-caused climate change was an ever-increasing threat to the stability of our climate. After Keeling's death in 2005, the measurements were continued by his son, Ralph F. Keeling. Support from NSF, NOAA and NASA is being diminished or withdrawn, and Keeling has turned to crowd-funding to help raise funds to continue these important measurements. I hope you can join me in making a donation.


Figure 1. The Keeling Curve: climate change's most iconic image. The curve's steady year-by-year increase in CO2 due to burning of coal, oil, and natural gas has wriggles on top of it, due to the natural seasonal cycle in CO2--plants suck in CO2 during the Northern Hemisphere growing season, then release it during the winter. Image credit: Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USCD.


Figure 2. Dr. Charles Keeling posing at the entrance to the Charles Keeling Building at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

CO2 Levels Hit 401 ppm
The latest data from the Keeling curve website shows that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are surging upwards in their usual late winter push, as plants return CO2 to the atmosphere before the Northern Hemisphere spring growing season hits. CO2 levels reached 401 ppm (parts per million) last week on top of Mauna Loa, setting a new record. CO2 levels were at 280 ppm in 1870, increased less than 1 ppm per year in the 1960s, then accelerated to 2 ppm per year during the 2000s. Less than 1% of the increase since 1870 has been due to natural sources, such as volcanoes. The last time carbon dioxide levels reached 400 ppm—between 2.5 and 5 million years ago during the Pliocene Era—the Earth was 3.5 to 9° F warmer (2 to 5° C), and sea levels were 65 to 80 feet higher.

Links
There is a hashtag #savetheKeelingCurve
Eli Rabett's post, Shaking the Cup for Science
What Does 400 ppm Look Like? December 2013 blog post by Robert Monroe of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.




Senate holds all-nighter on climate change
A group of 31 U.S. Senators pulled an all-nighter last night on the floor of the U.S. Senate, taking turns from 9 pm Monday night until 9 am Tuesday morning to promote policy actions on climate change. Many of the Senators involved issued tweets using the hashtag #Up4Climate. The all-nighter was another indication that politicians are becoming increasingly bold about speaking up on climate change.

Latest Version of our WunderMap App Now Includes WunderPhotos
Weather Underground has released today a new version of our WunderMap app for iPhone and iPad. The main new feature that we'd like to highlight is the WunderPhotos layer--now users can view, share, and submit photos all from within the app. Here are a few of the features of the new version of the WunderMap app:

◦ Improved Weather Station display, and both station size and station spacing are now adjustable (Weather Stations Layer ⇒ Settings).
◦ New WunderPhotos layer! View, share, and submit beautiful weather photos.
◦ Fixed incorrect elevation for some Personal Weather Stations.
◦ Swipe-to-delete search history items.
◦ "Terrain/Satellite” and other map options made more prominent.
◦ Bug fixes (crashes, visual glitches, and usability enhancements).
◦ Optimized performance across all devices.


The latest version is available to download for iPhone and iPad at https://itunes.apple.com/app/wundermap/id364884105?mt=8.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
sar2401, Not ruled out the terrorism theory.

CNN Breaking News ‏@cnnbrk · 3 min
CIA not ready to rule out terrorism in missing Malaysia Airlines flight, agency director says


Of course not, no theory is taken off the table until a preponderance of evidence rules it in or out. Gathering the evidence is what they're working on now. I guarantee you no one in the media knows how that's going, but they will speculate constantly, since that's what gets people to watch and click on links.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13461
Quoting 53. sar2401:

Your images don't work, GT.
Yeah I noticed that, try the link. I guess we are not allowed to post .png here, anyways I'm glad it is not working because it would slowdown the blog.
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Future meterologist
Link
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54. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting 34. DFWdad:
I contributed.

It is really important to keep recording consistent observations from so far back. We have so few.

This indicator will also help verify the current administration's designation of CO2 as a pollutant, and its measurement as a 'Canary in a coal mine'.


Much appreciated!

Dr. M.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
A Global Perspective:






Link

Your images don't work, GT.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13461
What is the total cost of running the Scripps observatory on Mauna Loa? When I was last on top of Mauna Loa, I visited the NOAA observatory. It looked like they are monitoring Co2 concentrations there as well, since they had a graph posted that looked like the Keeling Curve. OK, I just looked up the NOAA site on Mauna Loa and they are monitoring Co2. How is this different from what Scripps is doing? Is there some reason we need two sites located a couple of hundred feet from each other doing the same thing?

NOAA Mauna Loa Observatory
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13461
GTstormChaserCaleb #41 - There evidence of a higher ocean stand in the same area in the form of a relic beach, which extends all the way to south Florida. Here's a link to one study:

Sea-Level Highstands Over the Last 500,000 Years: Evidence from the Ironshore Formation on Grand Cayman, British West Indies

"Available evidence indicates that sea level at the time of deposition of each unit relative to present sea level was: unit A, 29.0 to 25.5 m; unit B, 23.0 to 10.5 m; unit C, 22.5 to 11.1 m; and unit D, 12.5 to 16.0 m. These data are good estimates of eustatic sea-level highstands over the last 500 ky."
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A Global Perspective:






Link
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Quoting 43. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Worst case scenario, I don't see this happening in my lifetime, but it may happen in someones else's lifetime.



Thanks for the new blog...

Do you have one for the northeast... maybe for the Chesapeake Bay or NYC area... I feel we are not in a good shape either
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Quoting 42. MahFL:


The say this "We advance no specific policy" , but they advocate a large cut in CO2 emissions...
Do they think that will materialize out of thin air ?


No, but they do not want to dictate a policy, usually because there are multiple policy solutions. This happens all the time. For example, the Domestic Violence track in Sociology at UCF has some amazing research coming out. The research can point to an issue to be addressed, but it is not the position of the researchers or school to recommend specific actions that local, state, or federal governments should take.

Supporting a cut in CO2 is one thing, advocating a carbon tax is another.

Edit for clarity: Researches research, they can tell you what the data says, in this case less CO2 = good idea, but they are not policy makers, and in general they will not say HOW to get less CO2. That is for the people whose job is to decide those things.
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sar2401, Not ruled out the terrorism theory.

CNN Breaking News ‏@cnnbrk · 3 min
CIA not ready to rule out terrorism in missing Malaysia Airlines flight, agency director says

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14073
Quoting 43. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Worst case scenario, I don't see this happening in my lifetime, but it may happen in someones else's lifetime.

Yeah,In a million a years.
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Quoting 44. sar2401:

Thanks, Scott, I will send him an e-mail about the broken links. Do you know if the responsibility for the Bufkit Warehouse site has been taken on by anyone else?

Chris created and developed the site, along with the associated other tools (Meteogram Generator). My understanding is that he still running all of these himself.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:
From the previous comment thread...

Chris has graduated with his Ph.D. and now works for CIMMS. The ISU emails usually expire a few months after graduation.

Try contacting him at karstens.chris@gmail.com

Thanks, Scott, I will send him an e-mail about the broken links. Do you know if the responsibility for the Bufkit Warehouse site has been taken on by anyone else?
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13461
Worst case scenario, I don't see this happening in my lifetime, but it may happen in someones else's lifetime.

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Quoting 35. LargoFl:
Florida and the Rising seas............Link


The say this "We advance no specific policy" , but they advocate a large cut in CO2 emissions...
Do they think that will materialize out of thin air ?
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For ncstorm, TAWX13, Bluestorm5 and anyone else who lives in North Carolina.



Image credited to Center for Natural Hazards Research, East Carolina University.
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Thanks, Dr. Masters. I just gave $20 to support this important monitoring.
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Quoting 35. LargoFl:
Florida and the Rising seas............Link
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From the previous comment thread...
Quoting 364. sar2401:

I didn't realize that was our Scott until you pointed it out. I see now when I click on his name that it's him. He needs a better picture though. :-)

On the down side, none of the offices close to me (Birmingham, Jackson, and Memphis) have working links on the second map. I've contacted ckarsten@iastate.edu, who appears to be the person responsible for maintaining the web site, but the-mail bounced. It looks like he was a student when the BUFKIT Warehouse was written but the site was last updated in 2011, so maybe he graduated and moved on. I hope Scott will see this and let me know a good contact.

Chris has graduated with his Ph.D. and now works for CIMMS. The ISU emails usually expire a few months after graduation.

Try contacting him at karstens.chris@gmail.com
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LargoFl #32 and #30 - When one makes those paleoclimate comparisons, it's easy to overlook the fact that the Earth's continents have shifted around quite a bit over time. The present period of Ice Ages with occasional interglacial periods only began around 3 million years ago. It's been suggested that the climate underwent a basic change back then due the the closure of the Isthmus of Panama, which cut off the connection between the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific. As a result the North Atlantic is more saline than the Pacific, which then resulted in the strong overturning circulation in the Atlantic, which is absent in the North Pacific. Thus, it's not likely that warming today will have an analog in the climate before about 3.3 million years BP.

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Im wondering...how much..automobile exhaust contributes to global warming?.....and if such a link WAS found...just how many here...would give up driving their cars?....................exactly...so what point is there..to defending, and posting..and worrying about global warming in the first place..NO ONE is capable of fixing any rise in temps..all your going to get..is Rising Taxes..govt controls on what you do etc.....and nothing will change...except your pocketbook and whats in it.....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101
Florida and the Rising seas............Link
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101
I contributed.

It is really important to keep recording consistent observations from so far back. We have so few.

This indicator will also help verify the current administration's designation of CO2 as a pollutant, and its measurement as a 'Canary in a coal mine'.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CO2 Levels Hit 401 ppm
The latest data from the Keeling curve website shows that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are surging upwards in their usual late winter push, as plants return CO2 to the atmosphere before the Northern Hemisphere spring growing season hits. CO2 levels reached 401 ppm (parts per million) last week on top of Mauna Loa, setting a new record. CO2 levels were at 280 ppm in 1870, increased less than 1 ppm per year in the 1960s, then accelerated to 2 ppm per year during the 2000s. Less than 1% of the increase since 1870 has been due to natural sources, such as volcanoes. The last time carbon dioxide levels reached 400 ppm—between 2.5 and 5 million years ago during the Pliocene Era—the Earth was 3.5 to 9° F warmer (2 to 5° C), and sea levels were 65 to 80 feet higher.

Thank You Dr. Masters for this post. It is not a matter of if, but when now. I think based on these trends it is too late, it is unfortunate we did this too ourselves, but ancient history will suggest just like the collapse of many civilizations we are also heading in that direction, only a matter of time now. Then a new one will begin, all a process of evolution. Just like the dinosaurs came up and died, we raised from the ashes and ashes we shall return. Anyways, on a more positive note, the weather is nice here today and I like to say, live it one day at a time. Whatever happens tomorrow or in the future will happen for a reason. You can still give back to the Earth what the Earth has given you life. So let us not take it for granted and destroy it.
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After this deep freeze, there were several "hothouse earth" periods when the temperature exceeded those we experience today. The warmest was probably the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), which peaked about 55 million years ago. Global temperatures during this event may have warmed by 5°C to 8°C within a few thousand years, with the Arctic Ocean reaching a subtropical 23°C. Mass extinctions resulted.

The warming, which lasted 200,000 years, was caused by the release of massive amounts of methane or CO2. It was thought to have come from the thawing of methane clathrates in deep ocean sediments, but the latest theory is that it was caused by a massive volcanic eruption that heated up coal deposits. In other words, the PETM is an example of catastrophic global warming triggered by the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Since then, the Earth has cooled. For the past million years or so, the climate has switched between ice ages and warmer interglacial periods with temperatures similar to those of the past few millennia. These periodic changes seem to be triggered by oscillations in the planet's orbit and inclination that alter the amount of solar radiation reaching Earth.

However, it is clear that the orbital changes alone would not have produced large temperature changes and that there must have been some kind of feedback effect (see the section on Milankovitch cycles in this article).
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101
I listened to a lot of the senate session last night while working on other stuff. The denier used the typical excuses...it's been cold this winter, therefore it's actually cooling, not warming, scientists at NOAA and other agencies are modifying the data to fit an agenda, etc. It's nice to see senate at least partially educated, those statements were quickly struck down. I almost cringed when I heard them mention polar vortex, but they didn't go too far out of context.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
my view is..outside of ocean level rise and perhaps more severe storms..humans will still be here..working day after day like always..will there be changes?..sure there will be but we humans forget..the earth is Always changing..nothing stays the same..add continent drift etc and volcano's etc..only we humans demand..things stay the same...nature says NO...so we humans must and we will..adjust huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101
29. JRRP
Link
mmmm
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I read a lil while ago, some science paper on the atmosphere of earth and CO2 is just a small fraction of it...but i guess add methane to the mix and both create a problem,paper didnt say wether CO2 was causing a rise in earth's temp,or it if is a natural occurance as it does from time to time..it did say in the age of dinosaurs...the earth was much hotter than it is today....so the earth HAS been here before..just no humans there to record it..hence the worry today...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101
suposed to be Not as Strong as last week..we'll see if that verifies..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101
Here is the May 2013 NOAA Release on the Mauna Loa observations:


CThat increase is not a surprise to scientists, said NOAA senior scientist Pieter Tans, with the Global Monitoring Division of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo. The evidence is conclusive that the strong growth of global CO2 emissions from the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas is driving the acceleration.

Before the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century, global average CO2 was about 280 ppm. During the last 800,000 years, CO2 fluctuated between about 180 ppm during ice ages and 280 ppm during interglacial warm periods. Today's rate of increase is more than 100 times faster than the increase that occurred when the last ice age ended.


Link

And here the biggest producers in the world of Co2 (in terms of fossil fuel burning and cement production on a per capita basis). Interesting to see Australia in first place as of 2012:

Australia
United States
Saudi Arabia
Canada
South Korea
Russian Federation
Taiwan
Japan
Netherlands
Germany
Poland
United Kingdom
EU27
Ukraine
China
Italy
South Africa
Spain
France
Iran
Mexico
Thailand
Brazil
Indonesia
India

Link

We are ALL in the same small boat.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8850
local met has added WIND to the next 2 days storm..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101
Quoting 17. Naga5000:


CO2 is well mixed, but this should explain it a bit better.
"CO2 concentrations aren’t the same everywhere. In general, CO2 is well mixed in the atmosphere, mainly because it’s so long lived. Individual CO2 molecules do cycle back and forth in annually balanced exchanges between the atmosphere, biosphere, and oceans. However, the net addition of CO2 to the atmosphere from human activities will take a very long time to be permanently absorbed by oceans, plants, and soil. If you add a pulse of extra CO2 into the atmosphere, only about half of it will be gone from the air a century later. The rest will leave the atmosphere even more gradually, over hundreds and even thousands of years.

Since CO2 has plenty of time to disperse throughout the global atmosphere, it’s possible to use values collected at a remote site like Mauna Loa—more than two miles above the Pacific, and many hundreds of miles from any continent—as a proxy for global concentrations." Link


I will have to look but I seem to recall a scientist from Mauna Loa making some El Nino predictions........
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Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 11:00 AM EDT Tuesday 11 March 2014
Condition:Partly Cloudy
Pressure:29.7 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:43.2°F
Dewpoint:31.8°F
Humidity:64%
Wind:WNW 3 mph
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
thanks for update doc

sad to hear of funding cuts
but its to be expected
how else are they to silence the science
take away funding easy

but it don't matter

forever faster and faster
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Going skiing in NH 10-days from now. Should be good skiing!

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON
EDT THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 20 INCHES
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its 57F IN new York city at 11am this morning iTS going to 64F LATER AROUND 4PM!! spring weather to me..
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13863
the aussie mets have their el nino update out...i have no time to go over it so here is the Link...i from their first paragrpah...

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral – neither El Niño nor La Niña. However, international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that warming of the tropical Pacific is likely in the coming months, with most models showing temperatures approaching or exceeding El Niño thresholds during the austral winter.


remember..their winter is our summer....so if the models hold out...it would probably be our fall when el nino is declared...which is what many of the experts have been stating
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Quoting 14. weathermanwannabe:
Thank You Dr. Makes sense that the most accurate readings for C02 should be made at high altitudes and away from major industry centers. I suppose that given that location (Hawaii) and with the westward push of the atmosphere over the Pacific, that they are probably picking up a lot of emissions from Asia and China over recent decades with their industrialization push.

Also interesting to wonder if we are currently in the infancy of a Pliocene Era type warming event based upon the current trending.


Aerosols tend to linger where produced and create a cooling climate force while CO2 tends to disperse globally, generally speaking.

Several articles on that topic are making the rounds recently

On the Plicone connection, that link in the article is a good one (What Does 400 ppm Look Like? ). It's hard to tell if modern activity / standard of living expectations can be maintained during a long-term 400-500 ppm climate. I suspect we'll blow by 500 ppm without blinking though.
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Quoting 14. weathermanwannabe:
Thank You Dr. Makes sense that the most accurate readings for C02 should be made at high altitudes and away from major industry centers. I suppose that given that location (Hawaii) and with the westward push of the atmosphere over the Pacific, that they are probably picking up a lot of emissions from Asia and China over recent decades with their industrialization push.

Also interesting to wonder if we are currently in the infancy of a Pliocene Era type warming event based upon the current trending.


CO2 is well mixed, but this should explain it a bit better.
"CO2 concentrations aren’t the same everywhere. In general, CO2 is well mixed in the atmosphere, mainly because it’s so long lived. Individual CO2 molecules do cycle back and forth in annually balanced exchanges between the atmosphere, biosphere, and oceans. However, the net addition of CO2 to the atmosphere from human activities will take a very long time to be permanently absorbed by oceans, plants, and soil. If you add a pulse of extra CO2 into the atmosphere, only about half of it will be gone from the air a century later. The rest will leave the atmosphere even more gradually, over hundreds and even thousands of years.

Since CO2 has plenty of time to disperse throughout the global atmosphere, it’s possible to use values collected at a remote site like Mauna Loa—more than two miles above the Pacific, and many hundreds of miles from any continent—as a proxy for global concentrations." Link
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Also done and I may be a little lower than you on the respectability list. :)

i don't think so but if that is the case naga....i'm in good company
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When you consider that the Japanese flew bomb-laden balloons to the US in the upper-atmosphere currents over the Pacific and that wreckage from the Japanese Tsunami started reaching the shores of Alaska and the Pacific NW in ocean currents months later, whatever happens in the Pacific Rim of Asia can actually become a "dumping ground" on the Pacific Rim of the Americas.

All the more reason to keep pressure on Asia to try to curb Co2 emissions.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8850
Thank You Dr. Makes sense that the most accurate readings for C02 should be made at high altitudes and away from major industry centers. I suppose that given that location (Hawaii) and with the westward push of the atmosphere over the Pacific, that they are probably picking up a lot of emissions from Asia and China over recent decades with their industrialization push.

Also interesting to wonder if we are currently in the infancy of a Pliocene Era type warming event based upon the current trending.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8850
Quoting 10. ricderr:
Donated $20. Amazing we could lose something this valuable due to nation's severe shortsightednes


good start always thinkin.......i matched you...so come on now...if a respectable blogger...and a not so respectable blogger can dig a little bit....i'm sure others can.......grab your wallets boys and girls...there's some work to be done


Also done and I may be a little lower than you on the respectability list. :)
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Thanks Doc..When Uncle Sammy gives me my refund, I will send a donation.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
Quoting 5. jpsb:
Thank You Dr Master, it is never a good idea to lose a good data source. But does the funding always have to come from tax payer? How much does it cost to sample the air for CO2 content? I would think not much if the equipment to do so is already in place. But I really have no idea as to the cost.
So are you sending a donation? If you think this is a good data source, but you don't donate (for whatever reason - I'm making an observation, not a judgment), then you have just demonstrated why taxpayer funding is needed.
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Donated $20. Amazing we could lose something this valuable due to nation's severe shortsightednes


good start always thinkin.......i matched you...so come on now...if a respectable blogger...and a not so respectable blogger can dig a little bit....i'm sure others can.......grab your wallets boys and girls...there's some work to be done
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Thanks for the reminder, Dr Masters. Crowd funding has helped support a lot of projects much less important than this. Maybe in addition to asking for donations, a campaign through a website like "causes" should be considered. Link

And thanks for the updates on Michigan weather. I've been really happy not to be there this winter!
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and good morning...been a busy three days moving and setting up the new office....38 hours in three days of back breaking intense work...weather was perfect for moving though....mid sixties or low seventies every day




i see noaa came out with their ENSO Cycle: Recent
Evolution, Current Status and Predictions yesterday.....while theirs been a lot of hype recent days and while i do believe we will see a nino even this year...it's important to remember that nino 3.4 SST departures is still at -0.4C
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7. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting 3. AlwaysThinkin:
Donated $20. Amazing we could lose something this valuable due to nation's severe shortsightedness.


Thank you!

Dr. M.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.