Save the Keeling Curve!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:13 PM GMT on March 11, 2014

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Climate change's most iconic research project is in danger--a victim of budget cuts in an era of increased government belt-tightening. The Keeling Curve is a measurement of the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere made atop Hawaii’s Mauna Loa, begun in 1958 by Dr. Charles Keeling. It is the longest-running such measurement in the world. The curve was instrumental in showing how human emissions of carbon dioxide were steadily accumulating in Earth's atmosphere, and raised awareness that human-caused climate change was an ever-increasing threat to the stability of our climate. After Keeling's death in 2005, the measurements were continued by his son, Ralph F. Keeling. Support from NSF, NOAA and NASA is being diminished or withdrawn, and Keeling has turned to crowd-funding to help raise funds to continue these important measurements. I hope you can join me in making a donation.


Figure 1. The Keeling Curve: climate change's most iconic image. The curve's steady year-by-year increase in CO2 due to burning of coal, oil, and natural gas has wriggles on top of it, due to the natural seasonal cycle in CO2--plants suck in CO2 during the Northern Hemisphere growing season, then release it during the winter. Image credit: Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USCD.


Figure 2. Dr. Charles Keeling posing at the entrance to the Charles Keeling Building at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

CO2 Levels Hit 401 ppm
The latest data from the Keeling curve website shows that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are surging upwards in their usual late winter push, as plants return CO2 to the atmosphere before the Northern Hemisphere spring growing season hits. CO2 levels reached 401 ppm (parts per million) last week on top of Mauna Loa, setting a new record. CO2 levels were at 280 ppm in 1870, increased less than 1 ppm per year in the 1960s, then accelerated to 2 ppm per year during the 2000s. Less than 1% of the increase since 1870 has been due to natural sources, such as volcanoes. The last time carbon dioxide levels reached 400 ppm—between 2.5 and 5 million years ago during the Pliocene Era—the Earth was 3.5 to 9° F warmer (2 to 5° C), and sea levels were 65 to 80 feet higher.

Links
There is a hashtag #savetheKeelingCurve
Eli Rabett's post, Shaking the Cup for Science
What Does 400 ppm Look Like? December 2013 blog post by Robert Monroe of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.




Senate holds all-nighter on climate change
A group of 31 U.S. Senators pulled an all-nighter last night on the floor of the U.S. Senate, taking turns from 9 pm Monday night until 9 am Tuesday morning to promote policy actions on climate change. Many of the Senators involved issued tweets using the hashtag #Up4Climate. The all-nighter was another indication that politicians are becoming increasingly bold about speaking up on climate change.

Latest Version of our WunderMap App Now Includes WunderPhotos
Weather Underground has released today a new version of our WunderMap app for iPhone and iPad. The main new feature that we'd like to highlight is the WunderPhotos layer--now users can view, share, and submit photos all from within the app. Here are a few of the features of the new version of the WunderMap app:

◦ Improved Weather Station display, and both station size and station spacing are now adjustable (Weather Stations Layer ⇒ Settings).
◦ New WunderPhotos layer! View, share, and submit beautiful weather photos.
◦ Fixed incorrect elevation for some Personal Weather Stations.
◦ Swipe-to-delete search history items.
◦ "Terrain/Satellite” and other map options made more prominent.
◦ Bug fixes (crashes, visual glitches, and usability enhancements).
◦ Optimized performance across all devices.


The latest version is available to download for iPhone and iPad at https://itunes.apple.com/app/wundermap/id364884105?mt=8.

Jeff Masters

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106. NCstu
Quoting 73. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Tuesday, 1 April 2014: 9:45 AM
Pacific Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )
Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and M. E. Kieper and J. L. Beven II
A proposed reanalysis of 1969's Hurricane Camille has been completed, as part of the Atlantic Hurricane Database Reanalysis Project. This overall reassessment of the main archive for tropical cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico has been necessary to correct systematic biases and random errors in the data as well as to search for previously unrecognized systems. The reanalysis of Hurricane Camille has been expedited to allow for a homogeneous comparison of all four of the U.S. landfalling Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category 5 hurricanes since 1900 (the 1928 “San Felipe” Hurricane in Puerto Rico, the 1935 “Labor Day Hurricane” in the Florida Keys, 1969's Hurricane Camille in Louisiana/Mississippi, and 1992's Hurricane Andrew in southeastern Florida). A review of the available ship, station, radar, aircraft and satellite observation is presented, along with the reanalysis methodology. Finally, highlights of the Best Track Change Committee approved changes to Camille's genesis, track, intensity, and dissipation are discussed.

A Reanalysis of 1969's Hurricane Camille
I'm dying for a Camille/Haiyan showdown!
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Figure 1. The Keeling Curve: climate change's most iconic image. The curve's steady year-by-year increase in CO2 due to burning of coal, oil, and natural gas has wriggles on top of it, due to the natural seasonal cycle in CO2--plants suck in CO2 during the Northern Hemisphere growing season, then release it during the winter.

True, and this is always the explanation which is given for the 'saw tooth' curve. However, warm water outgasses CO2, while cold water absorbs it.

During the northern hemisphere winter, the southern ocean warms up, so there must also be a net input of CO2 from that source.
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103. jpsb
Quoting 84. sar2401:

GT, there's a glaring error in his calculations. He says:
Since the beginning of the industrial revolution we have removed .095% of the oxygen in our atmosphere.

From my admittedly not very good calculational skills, that should be .0095%. Nine-tenths of a percent would be a huge loss of oxygen when average room air is about 19%. Pulse oximeters, for example, would not be reading correctly, since no one's blood could reach 100%, or even 99%, saturation. I'm surprised that blog survived almost seven years with such a large error and no correction.


Close but no quite. You need one more zero.

One percent is .01 one tenth of one percent is .001

So ninety-five percent of one tenth of one percent is .00095
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Quoting 93. LargoFl:
just heard on Rush,that a single jet airliner puts out enourmous amounts of CO2 on each flight...are we demanding that the arilines shut down in the global warming fight to keep the earth cooler?...will those who are premoting glbal warming not ever take a flight again?...now lets get to the SUV's and trucks...will everyone get rid of them?...you see folks..talk is cheap..when it comes to the actual giving up things..people wont..its human nature i guess..its why this GW fight will never win..relax..build higher sea walls up and down the coasts lol..its about all we can do..no wait...you cant block my ocean view with that high wall...you see what i mean..........


They won't. Love your last line...
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Thank you for the link to crowd sourcing of the CO2 study - Hoping that they make their targets and continue the good work (yes, I chipped in too). Sounds like the anti-science/fact faction is running the show. How long before they convince their constituents that the sun revolves around the earth?

f
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Rush eh?

Well, we can fly, drive and ski on water and run coal Plants till the CO2 reaches 1000ppm, and the Oil and coal runs out,,..then things should settle back to 300ppm, in about a Millennia or so.

The O2 Levels are going to dip too.

Hows the ol EIB thing going?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting 84. sar2401:

GT, there's a glaring error in his calculations. He says:
Since the beginning of the industrial revolution we have removed .095% of the oxygen in our atmosphere.

From my admittedly not very good calculational skills, that should be .0095%. Nine-tenths of a percent would be a huge loss of oxygen when average room air is about 19%. Pulse oximeters, for example, would not be reading correctly, since no one's blood could reach 100%, or even 99%, saturation. I'm surprised that blog survived almost seven years with such a large error and no correction.

This FAQ has basically the same calculation, but indicates that it is since the industrial revolution:
Cumulative decrease from the dawn of the industrial era to 2005: (3.61016)/(3.7061019)106= 972 per meg. The decrease of 972 per meg corresponds to losing 972 O2 molecules per million O2 molecules in the atmosphere, or a loss of roughly 0.1% of the O2 content.
http://scrippso2.ucsd.edu/faq

More resources on this topic:
http://www.carboscope.eu/?q=co2_budget
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/fig3-4.htm

Perhaps if you have strong reasoning to believe that the page is in error, you could email the page authors?
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AGW is A House on Fire Link
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
No problem here GT...

Don't know what's going on with the blog today. Some images are showing up with the broken icon and then the image shows up when I refresh...and then disappears when I refresh again. Running Chrome on Windows Vista. Must be me.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16324
just heard on Rush,that a single jet airliner puts out enourmous amounts of CO2 on each flight...are we demanding that the arilines shut down in the global warming fight to keep the earth cooler?...will those who are premoting glbal warming not ever take a flight again?...now lets get to the SUV's and trucks...will everyone get rid of them?...you see folks..talk is cheap..when it comes to the actual giving up things..people wont..its human nature i guess..its why this GW fight will never win..relax..build higher sea walls up and down the coasts lol..its about all we can do..no wait...you cant block my ocean view with that high wall...you see what i mean..........
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Quoting 87. PalmBeachWeather:
Thank you Dr. Masters

Sup Palm Beach!!
Long time no see you around
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Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Missing airliner 'changed course'
Military radar suggests the missing Malaysian airliner turned west, away from its planned route, before disappearing, Malaysia's air force says.

Per BBC.



A high-ranking military official involved in the investigation confirmed the report and also said the plane was believed to be flying low. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the information.

Do not, I repeat, do not believe these supposed high ranking anonymous military officials. There's an old saying that holds true in these situations. Those that don't know, talk. Those that do know, don't.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16324
Quoting 53. sar2401:

Your images don't work, GT.
No problem here GT...
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Fixed for you, Skye.

Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16324
Quoting 77. Skyepony:
Embeded this gauge in my blog last night sort of following the flooding in Montana.. It has shot up considerably since then.. Hope that is some sort of ice on the gauge anomaly & the town isn't lost..





It's a gauge anomaly. The USGS isn't even letting the observations through to their web page for the gauge anymore.

Unfortunately, just when we need gauges the most (during higher-end events), we see them fail most often.
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Thank you Dr. Masters
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Quoting 85. Gearsts:
I don't understand that graph to much :(
Seems like windshear because I see the units (m/s) which is velocity. The reds and pinks are higher values.
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Quoting 29. JRRP:
Link
mmmm
I don't understand that graph to much :(
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Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Man you know I want to at least be able to breath in a warming world, not struggle.

According to a study conducted by scientists from the Scripps Institute there is less oxygen in the atmosphere today than there used to be. The ongoing study, which accumulated and interpreted data from NOAA monitoring stations all over the world, has been running from 1989 to the present. It monitored both the rise of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the decline in oxygen. The conclusion of that 20 year study is that, as carbon dioxide (produced primarily by burning fossil fuels) accumulates in the atmosphere, available oxygen is decreasing.

Atmospheric Oxygen Levels Fall As Carbon Dioxide Rises

GT, there's a glaring error in his calculations. He says:
Since the beginning of the industrial revolution we have removed .095% of the oxygen in our atmosphere.

From my admittedly not very good calculational skills, that should be .0095%. Nine-tenths of a percent would be a huge loss of oxygen when average room air is about 19%. Pulse oximeters, for example, would not be reading correctly, since no one's blood could reach 100%, or even 99%, saturation. I'm surprised that blog survived almost seven years with such a large error and no correction.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16324
Quoting 79. Naga5000:


It's not a real "tipping point" that line may have been crossed already. With the length of time CO2 stays in the atmosphere and the rate at which we add more, the storage mechanisms can't keep up. 350 is better, 275 is where we have been at through most of human civilization (for context).

Link


Thanks.
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Quoting 75. FunnelVortex:


Thats a large jump. Are you sure it's not exaggerated?
We are still 86 years away from 2100, so I think you would have to extrapolate the average out. Which averages out to that level of course with a higher range of values due to uncertainty that far out.
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Quoting 78. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Man you know I want to at least be able to breath in a warming world, not struggle.

According to a study conducted by scientists from the Scripps Institute there is less oxygen in the atmosphere today than there used to be. The ongoing study, which accumulated and interpreted data from NOAA monitoring stations all over the world, has been running from 1989 to the present. It monitored both the rise of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the decline in oxygen. The conclusion of that 20 year study is that, as carbon dioxide (produced primarily by burning fossil fuels) accumulates in the atmosphere, available oxygen is decreasing.

Atmospheric Oxygen Levels Fall As Carbon Dioxide Rises


Exactly what you would expect from combustion. :)
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Quoting 55. flsky:
Future meterologist
Link

This is how i feel now:(
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Quoting 71. Dakster:
I know 400 ppm is a record for modern times. But is that a tipping point line in the sand, once it is crossed?

I can see the need for a house boat if I want to stay in Florida.


It's not a real "tipping point" that line may have been crossed already. With the length of time CO2 stays in the atmosphere and the rate at which we add more, the storage mechanisms can't keep up. 350 is better, 275 is where we have been at through most of human civilization (for context).

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 74. Patrap:
And for perspective on how High and how fast we went, and are rising,..well,

The obvious is certain.

Man you know I want to at least be able to breath in a warming world, not struggle.

According to a study conducted by scientists from the Scripps Institute there is less oxygen in the atmosphere today than there used to be. The ongoing study, which accumulated and interpreted data from NOAA monitoring stations all over the world, has been running from 1989 to the present. It monitored both the rise of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the decline in oxygen. The conclusion of that 20 year study is that, as carbon dioxide (produced primarily by burning fossil fuels) accumulates in the atmosphere, available oxygen is decreasing.

Atmospheric Oxygen Levels Fall As Carbon Dioxide Rises
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
77. Skyepony (Mod)
Embeded this gauge in my blog last night sort of following the flooding in Montana.. It has shot up considerably since then.. Hope that is some sort of ice on the gauge anomaly & the town isn't lost..




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Quoting 70. GeorgiaStormz:


I have no idea what he is like but I'm jealous. Are you going to see Greg Carbin and the others also?
I am not specifically meeting the others, but I will probably bump into them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 74. Patrap:
And for perspective on how High and how fast we went, and are rising,..well,

The obvious is certain.



Thats a large jump. Are you sure it's not exaggerated?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
And for perspective on how High and how fast we went, and are rising,..well,

The obvious is certain.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Tuesday, 1 April 2014: 9:45 AM
Pacific Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )
Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and M. E. Kieper and J. L. Beven II
A proposed reanalysis of 1969's Hurricane Camille has been completed, as part of the Atlantic Hurricane Database Reanalysis Project. This overall reassessment of the main archive for tropical cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico has been necessary to correct systematic biases and random errors in the data as well as to search for previously unrecognized systems. The reanalysis of Hurricane Camille has been expedited to allow for a homogeneous comparison of all four of the U.S. landfalling Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category 5 hurricanes since 1900 (the 1928 “San Felipe” Hurricane in Puerto Rico, the 1935 “Labor Day Hurricane” in the Florida Keys, 1969's Hurricane Camille in Louisiana/Mississippi, and 1992's Hurricane Andrew in southeastern Florida). A review of the available ship, station, radar, aircraft and satellite observation is presented, along with the reanalysis methodology. Finally, highlights of the Best Track Change Committee approved changes to Camille's genesis, track, intensity, and dissipation are discussed.

A Reanalysis of 1969's Hurricane Camille
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We continue to dump more and more CO2 and other Fossil Fuel by-product's into the Bio-Sphere 24/7/365.

We have to discontinue use or the Song Remains the Same.



In my 54 years alone, note the Keeling graph rise.

90ppm
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
I know 400 ppm is a record for modern times. But is that a tipping point line in the sand, once it is crossed?

I can see the need for a house boat if I want to stay in Florida.
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Quoting 64. hurricanehunter27:
I am meeting with Dr. Frederick Carr at OU's meteorology department tomorrow. Do any of you know him? If so can you tell me what type of guy he is? Thanks in advance.


I have no idea what he is like but I'm jealous. Are you going to see Greg Carbin and the others also?
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LargoFl #62 - 50 years from now, the Earth might be nearly dead. Here's a rather extreme version of the future [LINK]. Are you aware that the human body can not survive when the dew point approaches 35C? We know that SST's in summer often exceed 30C, so add 4 or 5C to that and what do you get? Dieoff in many tropical regions...
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Quoting 66. nrtiwlnvragn:
Manuscripts are beginning to be posted for the upcoming 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

A tease from Reanalysis of the 1955-1964 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

Some of the most interesting results thus far include
decreasing the landfall intensity of Hurricane Audrey,
1957 from 125 kt originally in HURDAT to 105 kt,
increasing the landfall intensity of Hurricane Gracie,
1959 from 105 kt originally in HURDAT to 115 kt and
adding 12 new tropical storms.


So even in the era of reconnaissance, new TC are being identified.


Also a good read:
Variability in African Easterly Waves and interactions with the environment for Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Eastern Atlantic
Thank You! Will definitely read this.
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Quoting 55. flsky:
Future meterologist
Link


That is a beautiful Video , Thank you for posting it !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Manuscripts are beginning to be posted for the upcoming 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

A tease from Reanalysis of the 1955-1964 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

Some of the most interesting results thus far include
decreasing the landfall intensity of Hurricane Audrey,
1957 from 125 kt originally in HURDAT to 105 kt,
increasing the landfall intensity of Hurricane Gracie,
1959 from 105 kt originally in HURDAT to 115 kt and
adding 12 new tropical storms.


So even in the era of reconnaissance, new TC are being identified.


Also a good read:
Variability in African Easterly Waves and interactions with the environment for Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Eastern Atlantic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Missing airliner 'changed course'
Military radar suggests the missing Malaysian airliner turned west, away from its planned route, before disappearing, Malaysia's air force says.

Per BBC.

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I am meeting with Dr. Frederick Carr at OU's meteorology department tomorrow. Do any of you know him? If so can you tell me what type of guy he is? Thanks in advance.
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Quoting 57. sar2401:

Of course not, no theory is taken off the table until a preponderance of evidence rules it in or out. Gathering the evidence is what they're working on now. I guarantee you no one in the media knows how that's going, but they will speculate constantly, since that's what gets people to watch and click on links.
Yeah that's what the news does best bait people by changing the headlines to an older article. Right now we are still in the speculation stage and we may not know exactly what happened for years to come, think back to TWA 800 how long it took that investigation to wrap up, till this day it is not 100% proven that a short circuit inside the center wing fuel tank caused a fire that ruptured the fuselage and nose. Of course an individual or group can come forward and claim responsibility.
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Quoting 42. MahFL:


The say this "We advance no specific policy" , but they advocate a large cut in CO2 emissions...
Do they think that will materialize out of thin air ?
what worries me the most is in the usa..they will surely start raising taxes..maybe very high taxes..yet most of the world especially asia..will sit back and laugh..i would not support any new taxes unless the whole world..every single country in it..would rise up against global warming and fight it..and we all know here..that will never happen....raising taxes to the govt takes in yet even More money..and 50 years from now..nothing would change..GW would still be here and OUR wallets would be a whole lot lighter....im sorry but its a money making scheme..taking it from us and giving it to them...me myself, not a penny goes to it unless forced to do so..
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Quoting 59. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Interpol 'inclined to conclude' Malaysia Airlines disappearance not terror

Link


I just saw CIA director John Brennan on live Q&A session with press.
Quoting 57. sar2401:

Of course not, no theory is taken off the table until a preponderance of evidence rules it in or out. Gathering the evidence is what they're working on now. I guarantee you no one in the media knows how that's going, but they will speculate constantly, since that's what gets people to watch and click on links.


I just saw CIA director John Brennan on live Q&A session with press saying that so as you said,all the angles are not discounted until something is found..
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Quoting 1. Naga5000:
Thanks, Dr. Masters. It's a shame data like this could be lost over budget tightening. We need to make science funding a priority again.


The NOAA will continue to monitor atmospheric CO2 concentration as they have done since the 70's. The program Dr. Masters references is a separate program that performs the same task. What will be lost, if the program does not get funding, is essentially a second independent review of atmospheric CO2 concentration. That has some value. Just wanted to clarify...

In this case the budget hawks seem to be targeting the duplicated effort.

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Quoting 47. Tropicsweatherpr:
sar2401, Not ruled out the terrorism theory.

CNN Breaking News ‏@cnnbrk · 3 min
CIA not ready to rule out terrorism in missing Malaysia Airlines flight, agency director says

Interpol 'inclined to conclude' Malaysia Airlines disappearance not terror

Link
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Quoting ScottLincoln:

Chris created and developed the site, along with the associated other tools (Meteogram Generator). My understanding is that he still running all of these himself.

Thanks again. I'll pose that question to him in my e-mail and let you know what he says.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16324
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
sar2401, Not ruled out the terrorism theory.

CNN Breaking News ‏@cnnbrk · 3 min
CIA not ready to rule out terrorism in missing Malaysia Airlines flight, agency director says


Of course not, no theory is taken off the table until a preponderance of evidence rules it in or out. Gathering the evidence is what they're working on now. I guarantee you no one in the media knows how that's going, but they will speculate constantly, since that's what gets people to watch and click on links.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16324

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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