NOAA Issues El Niño Watch

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:58 PM GMT on March 06, 2014

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NOAA has issued an El Niño Watch for the summer and fall of 2014, giving a 50% chance that an El Niño event will occur. The March 6 El Niño discussion from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center noted that "While all models predict warming in the tropical Pacific, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether El Niño will develop during the summer or fall. If westerly winds continue to emerge in the western equatorial Pacific, the development of El Niño would become more likely. However, the lower forecast skill during the spring and overall propensity for cooler conditions over the last decade still justify significant probabilities for ENSO-neutral. The consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, with about a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the summer or fall."

None of the El Niño models predict La Niña conditions for peak hurricane season, August-September-October 2014, and 8 of 18 predict El Niño conditions. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer for three consecutive months for an El Niño episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were -0.6°C from average as of March 3, and have been +0.1 to -0.7°C from average since April 1, 2013. El Niño conditions tend to make quieter than average Atlantic hurricane seasons, due to an increase in upper-level winds that create strong wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic.


Figure 1. Depth-longitude section of the departure of ocean temperature from average over the equatorial Pacific upper ocean between 0 - 300 meters between 5°S and 5°N during the period February 25 - March 1, 2014. Averages are taken from a 1981 - 2010 base period. While surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific were near average to cooler than average, a strong eastwards-propagating Kelvin wave with temperatures up to 6°C (11°F) above average at a depth of about 160 meters was headed towards the Eastern Pacific. If unusually strong westerly winds continue over the equatorial Western Pacific during March and April, this Kelvin wave has the potential to trigger a strong El Ninño event over the Eastern Pacific later this year. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

An impressive westerly wind burst over the Equatorial Pacific
The potential El Niño event has been made more likely over the past month due to the intensification of a strong "Westerly Wind Burst" (WWB) along the equatorial Pacific west of the Date Line. As of March 6, 2014, westerly winds that were more than 10 m/s (22 mph) stronger than average had developed between 140 - 150°E, just north of New Guinea. These unusually strong westerly winds were acting to push warm water piled up to the east of the Philippines eastwards towards South America. The "Westerly Wind Burst" was due, in part, to the counter-clockwise circulation of wind around Typhoon Faxai, which became a tropical storm on February 28 near 9°N, 149°E, and later intensified into a Category 1 typhoon. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, was also likely involved in amplifying the WWB. In order to keep the momentum of this WWB going and trigger a full-fledged El Niño event, some additional west-to-east push of winds is likely needed during March and April. Some extra push may come from a tropical disturbance (96P) that has developed this week south of the Equator near 13°S 153°E, to the northeast of Australia. The clockwise circulation of air around this storm is bringing increased westerly winds to the Equator in the region of the WWB, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is giving this disturbance a "medium" chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Friday. The GFS and European models predict that this storm will move southwards and bring heavy rain to the Queensland province of Australia over the weekend.


Figure 2. Departure of the 5-day average west-to-east blowing wind (the "zonal" wind) from average, averaged along the Equator, between 2°S and 2°N. A strong "Westerly Wind Burst" (WWB) formed in January 2014 near 140°E, and has intensified and propagated eastwards along the Equator. As of March 6, 2014, westerly winds that were more than 10 m/s (22 mph) stronger than average had developed. Image credit: NOAA/PMEL.

Additional links
An El Niño Coming in 2014? Guest blog post by Dr. Michael Ventrice on February 21, 2014.
All eyes on the tropical Pacific: March 5, 2014 blog post by Georgia Tech climate scientist Kim Cobb.

Jeff Masters

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2056. WaterWitch11
4:34 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting 1980. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I like the other one better
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1607
2055. ScottLincoln
4:19 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting 2033. StormTrackerScott:


Really "bud" try 91 so maybe you should do more research.

Orlando
min F max F avg F avg prcp
Jan 50.7 71.6 61.2 2.33
Feb 50.0 71.8 60.9 4.00
Mar 55.5 77.5 66.5 3.24
Apr 61.3 84.0 72.7 1.30
May 66.9 88.4 77.7 3.10
Jun 71.7 90.5 81.1 7.53
Jul 73.5 92.1 82.8 7.15
Aug 73.7 91.4 82.6 7.07
Sep 72.7 89.3 81.0 6.27

Oct 66.6 84.1 75.3 2.86
Nov 56.9 77.0 67.0 1.65
Dec 51.8 72.9 62.3 2.01
Average 62.6 82.6 72.6 48.51
89 vs. 91 can be explained by sites located on different sides of the same metro area, or even using different periods of record for averaging. Basically you've tried to distract everyone from the main point of his reply by showing one small (and mostly insignificant) piece could be incorrect.

The original point still stands... that 91F is only for one month, and the month wasn't April, and even in August, it wouldn't be 90F everyday if the average was 91.
Quoting 2050. StormTrackerScott:



Just posted this.

A senior source involved in preliminary investigations in Malaysia said the failure to find any debris indicated the plane may have broken up mid-flight, which could disperse wreckage over a very wide area, Reuters reported.

I think you need to look up what "may" means when used as a qualifier.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3192
2054. ARiot
2:39 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting 2042. EyEtoEyE:
Do you think a North Korean missile , brought it down?


NK? Improbable.

I suspect the debris will be found, but they will have to undertake a significant effort to find the most-probable cause.

The US TWA flight is still a matter of great controversy in some circles. I suspect this flight will be too, but perhaps to a lesser extent since the altitude at time of lost contact was rather high.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 366
2053. Bluestorm5
2:37 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting 2050. StormTrackerScott:




Just posted this.

A senior source involved in preliminary investigations in Malaysia said the failure to find any debris indicated the plane may have broken up mid-flight, which could disperse wreckage over a very wide area, Reuters reported.
I agree with that but you would think debris would have already been found by now if that's the case... if the plane crashed as one piece and debris is floating, that will be very tough to find as it'll be like needle in haystack.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
2052. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:35 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2051. StormTrackerScott
2:35 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Plane disappeared while flying at 35,000 feet.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2922
2050. StormTrackerScott
2:30 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting 2049. Bluestorm5:
No, bomb or missile isn't the only explanation for loss of contact. There's so many explanations for the disappearance. If the plane was bombed, we would have found debris scattered all over Gulf of Thailand. If the plane went down over ocean, then it might have done so in one piece which can explain why there's no debris so far. Air France's debris wasn't found for 2 weeks before the tail fin was found. However, Gulf of Thailand is not massive like Atlantic Ocean so it shouldn't be this hard to find debris...



Just posted this.

A senior source involved in preliminary investigations in Malaysia said the failure to find any debris indicated the plane may have broken up mid-flight, which could disperse wreckage over a very wide area, Reuters reported.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2922
2049. Bluestorm5
2:28 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting 2046. StormTrackerScott:


No one said it was "definitely a bomb". Sounds like you are trolling the blog again.

The 2 guys that had stolen passports from Italy & Austria are concerning. One would think that if these passports were reported stolen 2 years ago that they would have been flagged once going thru security.


I'm afraid that a bomb was set off aboard that plane as that would be the only explanation for a sudden loss of contact. If the plane had a mechanical problems the pilot would have time to set off a may day signal.

No, bomb or missile isn't the only explanation for loss of contact. There's so many explanations for the disappearance. If the plane was bombed, we would have found debris scattered all over Gulf of Thailand. If the plane went down over ocean, then it might have done so in one piece which can explain why there's no debris so far. Air France's debris wasn't found for 2 weeks before the tail fin was found. However, Gulf of Thailand is not massive like Atlantic Ocean so it shouldn't be this hard to find debris...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
2048. StormTrackerScott
2:28 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Marianne Brown

March 10, 2014
HANOI — As the search for a missing Malaysian airliner entered its third day, the head of Malaysia's Civil Aviation Authority called the disappearance of flight MH370 an "unprecedented mystery".

Azharuddin Abdul Rahman said Monday that the massive air and sea search has failed to find any trace of the plane or 239 people on board.

Interpol confirmed at least two passengers on the flight used stolen passports and authorities are checking to see whether others aboard used false identity documents.

Reuters quoted the chief Malaysian investigator as saying the two men who used stolen passports to board the jetliner were not of Asian appearance. Airport CCTV footage showed they completed all security procedures, he said.


Azharuddin said a hijacking attempt could not be ruled out.

A senior source involved in preliminary investigations in Malaysia said the failure to find any debris indicated the plane may have broken up mid-flight, which could disperse wreckage over a very wide area, Reuters reported.


The news agency also quoted a U.S. government source as saying that the United States has reviewed imagery taken by American spy satellites for evidence of a mid-air explosion, but saw none.

China urged Malaysia to step up the search for the missing plane and has sent security agents to help with the investigation into the misuse of passports. More than 150 Chinese nationals were on the flight. China has sent four search-and-rescue vessels and two warships to help in the mission.

In all, eight countries joined the search for the plane early Saturday, but so far no positive sightings of the jetliner have been made. Malaysia’s Department of Civil Aviation said the eight nations have a combined 40 ships and 34 aircraft involved in the hunt.
Grieving Indonesian mother Suharni displays a portrait of her son Sugianto Lo and wife Vinny Chynthya who are both passengers of the missing Malaysia Airlines flight, March 10, 2013.Grieving Indonesian mother Suharni displays a portrait of her son Sugianto Lo and wife Vinny Chynthya who are both passengers of the missing Malaysia Airlines flight, March 10, 2013.

Several sightings of suspicious objects were reported Saturday and Sunday, including what was believed to be a window or door of the plane. But Azharuddin said nothing has been verified.

"We have not found anything that appears to be objects from the aircraft, let alone the aircraft. We will be intensifying our efforts to locate the missing aircraft," he told reporters.

He said some samples of an oil slick spotted in the area are being analyzed to see if they could have come from the aircraft.

"The honorable prime minister used the word perplexing," said Azharuddin. "We are equally puzzled as well and to be confirmed what really happened on that particular day, on this ill-fated aircraft, we need hard evidence, we need concrete evidence, we need parts of the aircraft."
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2922
2047. StormTrackerScott
2:21 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting 2042. EyEtoEyE:
Do you think a North Korean missile , brought it down?


My first thoughts were a missile or bomb.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2922
2046. StormTrackerScott
2:20 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting 2043. StormWx:


Yes, if it was indeed an explosion at 35,000 the debris would be scattered over miles, and there would be lots of floating debris as well. Cant rule it out, but the fact that nothing has been found and we have no information its all speculation. Saying it was definitely a bomb is ridiculous. Anyways, back to the weather.


No one said it was "definitely a bomb". Sounds like you are trolling the blog again.

The 2 guys that had stolen passports from Italy & Austria are concerning. One would think that if these passports were reported stolen 2 years ago that they would have been flagged once going thru security.


I'm afraid that a bomb was set off aboard that plane as that would be the only explanation for a sudden loss of contact. If the plane had a mechanical problems the pilot would have time to set off a may day signal.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2922
2045. StormTrackerScott
2:18 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting 2040. StormWx:


Wow Scott, you must have some information that the authorities don't have. I would call them at once explain your theory and provide your evidence.



That's what CNN was reporting last night. The only way to know for sure is if authorities can find the black box. Lots of unknowns for sure.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2922
2044. Bluestorm5
2:16 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting 2038. EyEtoEyE:
How deep is the South China Sea , where the potential crash site is?
However, if the plane is indeed east of Vietnam rather than south, then we might have Air France 2007 problem...

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
2043. StormWx
2:16 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting Bluestorm5:
If the bomb went off, we would have debris found already since few of them will likely be floating in ocean.


Yes, if it was indeed an explosion at 35,000 the debris would be scattered over miles, and there would be lots of floating debris as well. Cant rule it out, but the fact that nothing has been found and we have no information its all speculation. Saying it was definitely a bomb is ridiculous. Anyways, back to the weather.
Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 937
2042. EyEtoEyE
2:14 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Do you think a North Korean missile , brought it down?
Member Since: July 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
2041. Bluestorm5
2:13 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting 2038. EyEtoEyE:
How deep is the South China Sea , where the potential crash site is?
They have been searching Gulf of Thailand which is only 200 feet deep at maximum.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
2040. StormWx
2:13 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting StormTrackerScott:





I'm afraid that a bomb was set off aboard that plane as that would be the only explanation for a sudden loss of contact. If the plane had a mechanical problems the pilot would have time to set off a may day signal.


Wow Scott, you must have some information that the authorities don't have. I would call them at once explain your theory and provide your evidence.

Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 937
2039. Bluestorm5
2:10 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting 2036. StormTrackerScott:


The 2 guys that had stolen passports from Italy & Austria are concerning. One would think that if these passports were reported stolen 2 years ago that they would have been flagged once going thru security.


I'm afraid that a bomb was set off aboard that plane as that would be the only explanation for a sudden loss of contact. If the plane had a mechanical problems the pilot would have time to set off a may day signal.
If the bomb went off, we would have debris found already since few of them will likely be floating in ocean.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
2038. EyEtoEyE
2:10 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
How deep is the South China Sea , where the potential crash site is?
Member Since: July 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
2037. NCstu
2:10 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting 2036. StormTrackerScott:


The 2 guys that had stolen passports from Italy & Austria are concerning. One would think that if these passports were reported stolen 2 years ago that they would have been flagged once going thru security.
Only sort of concerning if you're suggesting terrorism. Normally terrorist groups claim their deeds. A missile seems likely. I can't think of anything else that would be immediate. I hope I'm wrong.
Member Since: August 7, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 431
2036. StormTrackerScott
2:05 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting 2035. Patrap:
The 777 either had a Mid Air Breakup, or other catastrophic event. No Epirb ping was ever heard, let alone any May Day distress either, so most likely it's in a large number of pieces at the bottom of the South China Sea.

It will be most important to recover the FDR, and CVR...to see what occurred.


The 2 guys that had stolen passports from Italy & Austria are concerning. One would think that if these passports were reported stolen 2 years ago that they would have been flagged once going thru security.


I'm afraid that a bomb was set off aboard that plane as that would be the only explanation for a sudden loss of contact. If the plane had a mechanical problems the pilot would have time to set off a may day signal.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2922
2035. Patrap
2:02 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
The 777 either had a Mid Air Breakup, or other catastrophic event. No Epirb ping was ever heard, let alone any May Day distress either, so most likely it's in a large number of pieces at the bottom of the South China Sea.

It will be most important to recover the FDR, and CVR...to see what occurred.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
2034. StormTrackerScott
2:01 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Usually from Late April on it starts hitting 90 nearly everyday. So again enjoy these 70's and 80's now as the heat is just around the corner for us Floridians. Infact it has already been hot many days this Winter here with highs in the mid to upper 80's many days in February.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2922
2033. StormTrackerScott
1:59 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting 2023. StormWx:


90 every day Scott? Even the average temp in August is 89. The average high in April is 80-81. We are at March 10. I wouldnt expect 90s til the summer bud.


Really "bud" try 91 so maybe you should do more research.

Orlando
min F max F avg F avg prcp
Jan 50.7 71.6 61.2 2.33
Feb 50.0 71.8 60.9 4.00
Mar 55.5 77.5 66.5 3.24
Apr 61.3 84.0 72.7 1.30
May 66.9 88.4 77.7 3.10
Jun 71.7 90.5 81.1 7.53
Jul 73.5 92.1 82.8 7.15
Aug 73.7 91.4 82.6 7.07
Sep 72.7 89.3 81.0 6.27

Oct 66.6 84.1 75.3 2.86
Nov 56.9 77.0 67.0 1.65
Dec 51.8 72.9 62.3 2.01
Average 62.6 82.6 72.6 48.51
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2922
2032. NCstu
1:57 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting 2030. EyEtoEyE:
Off topic here , do any of you think we will ever find the missing Malaysian Airliner ?
of course. Who knows about the time frame though.
Member Since: August 7, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 431
2031. Patrap
1:56 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Nothing like a crazed JB tweet to begin da work week.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
2030. EyEtoEyE
1:55 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Off topic here , do any of you think we will ever find the missing Malaysian Airliner ?
Member Since: July 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
2029. Tazmanian
1:48 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting 2025. Tropicsweatherpr:


Dr Ventrice twitter account.





Ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115080
2028. CaribBoy
1:41 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Nobody thought the 2013 HS would be so inactive ... so why the 2014 HS would also be INACTIVE?

The 2013 forecast was a bust... we have no idea of what will happen in 2014, el nino or not.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6168
2027. LargoFl
1:34 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
I think this model is a bit slow on timing.....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
2026. LargoFl
1:33 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting 2022. StormTrackerScott:
It's just a matter of time before we are hitting 90 everyday here in Orlando. More than likely just a few weeks away. So enjoy the 70's and 80's while you can.

Maybe inland but here along the coast im looking forward to 80's hopefully in a few weeks..90's are far away im afraid this year
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
2025. Tropicsweatherpr
1:26 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting 2024. Tazmanian:




Weather did you. Get thhhhe comment post from?


Dr Ventrice twitter account.


Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14250
2024. Tazmanian
1:18 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting 1985. Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning.

Maybe a brief pause on warming of ENSO?


Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 34 min
MJO event forcing anomalous westerly flow o/Andes, tanking atmos. angular momentum. Atm to move back to La Nina pttrn

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 44 min
The current westerly wind burst looks to be coming to an end, for now. There were westerlies o/ eq for nearly 1 month




Weather did you. Get thhhhe comment post from?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115080
2023. StormWx
1:16 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
It's just a matter of time before we are hitting 90 everyday here in Orlando. More than likely just a few weeks away. So enjoy the 70's and 80's while you can.



90 every day Scott? Even the average temp in August is 89. The average high in April is 80-81. We are at March 10. I wouldnt expect 90s til the summer bud.
Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 937
2022. StormTrackerScott
1:10 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
It's just a matter of time before we are hitting 90 everyday here in Orlando. More than likely just a few weeks away. So enjoy the 70's and 80's while you can.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2922
2021. Birthmark
1:09 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting 2017. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


yeah I already was guessing on that cooler wetter summer

So, you saw it first? ;-)
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
2020. StormTrackerScott
1:08 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Overall warm week here in orlando

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2922
2019. StormWx
12:56 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Same story. Different day. The pattern is strong. I wonder if the Great Lakes being almost completely frozen has an effect on the temperatures. My guess is it does.

Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 937
2018. hydrus
12:56 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
446 AM EDT Mon Mar 10 2014

Valid 12Z Mon Mar 10 2014 - 12Z Wed Mar 12 2014

...Active weather across the Northwest will shift out into the Great
Plains...

...Showers and thunderstorms expected to move across the western and
central Gulf Coast states...

...A quick moving system will bring another round of light snows to the
Northeast...

Active weather will continue to accompany a cold front dropping
southeastward out of the northwestern corner of the Country on Monday.
Another day of widespread shower activity is expected across much of the
Northwest and Intermountain West; However, the main focus for
precipitation will be across the Northern Rockies and adjacent High
Plains...where increasing winds surrounding a deepening surface low along
the boundary will force moderate to heavy upslope snows. The cold front
and deepening surface cyclone will press farther south and east through
much of the Nation's midsection on Tuesday and is expected to reach the
eastern third of the Country by Wednesday morning. A wide axis of
precipitation should develop to the north of the sinking boundary...which
will spread eastward through the Great Plains and eventually Ohio Valley.
Falling temperatures behind the front will allow for snow within the
northern edge of the precipitation shield.

Low level southerly flow ahead of a piece of southern stream energy
ejecting out of Mexico will draw increasing amounts of moisture out of the
Gulf. The abundant moisture should fuel an organized area of showers and
thunderstorms across the western and central Gulf Coast states as the
energy steadily tracks eastward early this week.

Light snow showers will be possible with another weak system racing from
the Upper Great Lakes to the Northeast Monday night into Tuesday. A lack
of moisture and the quick progression of the system will keep any snowfall
accumulations to a minimum.


Gerhardt

Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21183
2017. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:50 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting 2011. StormTrackerScott:
Hey Keeper this is from JB.

YEAR WITHOUT A SUMMER FOR ONTARIO, GREAT LAKES
March 10 07:41 AM


The summer forecast I have out is meant to set the stage to hone in. But I am getting increasingly concerned on what could cause great agricultural hardship around the Great Lakes. The alarm bell went off yesterday when NOAA revealed that Lake Michigan had just hit a record high seasonal ice cover.. in March. Looking at this pattern with nothing but cold, interspersed with islands of warmth into April, I am trying to figure out how we are going to get any spring around the lakes and Ontario. Just using a very late, perhaps latest ever, of ice melt on the lakes already argues for the cold. But back in the summer of 09, there was talk after July anyway it was the year without a summer. In fact if we look at the summers of 04 and 09, both with el ninos coming on, both were the coolest summers we have seen around the great lakes in the past 15 years. However now we have the added problem of abnormally cold water anyway.
Think about it. Suppose its May and water temps are 10 degrees F below normal. A " normal" high pressure comes across, but the coolness of the lakes prevents temps from reaching what they would. The effectively supply a cap on the highs and a lower starting point for temps to drop at night. A night that would have been calm and 40 winds up at 32 with widespread frost.
What happens if a genuine chilly air mass with abnormally low dewpoints comes in during June?
Again the cap on the highs keeps it lower, and temps at night go well below where they would have been. Suppose its a borderline situation with cold.. that if the lakes were normal, there would be worry about scattered frost anyway. Well guess what. Its not scattered frost you are worried about, its saving anything you have in the ground.
Just like back last summer when I made the crack about how a cold winter coming would perhaps wake people up to the folly of AGW, the cold is now being used as an example of warm, you can bet the same thing will happen if this idea has merit
ciao for now


yeah I already was guessing on that cooler wetter summer

jb forgot lake effect in his equation except its reverse above freezing with rains and warm core cold core convective activity

but the sun is strong it won't take long

go back to my earth post you can see spring push into east asia from east europe another push in nw Alaska across bering sea towards the pole


o and believe it or not if the arctic warms we will just have to wait on a heat wave with due north winds

that's all
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
2016. hydrus
12:49 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21183
2015. hydrus
12:47 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21183
2014. hurricanes2018
12:45 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
here come the big snow storm for the northeast!!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 15 Comments: 29474
2013. hydrus
12:40 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21183
2012. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:39 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Africa is warming now

so is Europe

earth

Link
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
2011. StormTrackerScott
12:32 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Hey Keeper this is from JB.

YEAR WITHOUT A SUMMER FOR ONTARIO, GREAT LAKES
March 10 07:41 AM


The summer forecast I have out is meant to set the stage to hone in. But I am getting increasingly concerned on what could cause great agricultural hardship around the Great Lakes. The alarm bell went off yesterday when NOAA revealed that Lake Michigan had just hit a record high seasonal ice cover.. in March. Looking at this pattern with nothing but cold, interspersed with islands of warmth into April, I am trying to figure out how we are going to get any spring around the lakes and Ontario. Just using a very late, perhaps latest ever, of ice melt on the lakes already argues for the cold. But back in the summer of 09, there was talk after July anyway it was the year without a summer. In fact if we look at the summers of 04 and 09, both with el ninos coming on, both were the coolest summers we have seen around the great lakes in the past 15 years. However now we have the added problem of abnormally cold water anyway.
Think about it. Suppose its May and water temps are 10 degrees F below normal. A " normal" high pressure comes across, but the coolness of the lakes prevents temps from reaching what they would. The effectively supply a cap on the highs and a lower starting point for temps to drop at night. A night that would have been calm and 40 winds up at 32 with widespread frost.
What happens if a genuine chilly air mass with abnormally low dewpoints comes in during June?
Again the cap on the highs keeps it lower, and temps at night go well below where they would have been. Suppose its a borderline situation with cold.. that if the lakes were normal, there would be worry about scattered frost anyway. Well guess what. Its not scattered frost you are worried about, its saving anything you have in the ground.
Just like back last summer when I made the crack about how a cold winter coming would perhaps wake people up to the folly of AGW, the cold is now being used as an example of warm, you can bet the same thing will happen if this idea has merit
ciao for now
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2922
2010. StormTrackerScott
12:31 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting 2008. yonzabam:


They're identical. Got to be a mistake.


Reloaded a couple of seconds later. Refresh screen.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2922
2009. hydrus
12:31 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21183
2008. yonzabam
12:30 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting 2004. StormTrackerScott:
Here's 2/24


And here's 3/10


They're identical. Got to be a mistake.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2925
2007. hurricanes2018
12:29 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
light snow at my house this morning!!


Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 15 Comments: 29474
2006. Birthmark
12:28 PM GMT on March 10, 2014
Quoting 1908. sar2401:

I think someone pollinated at least once for you to be here. :-)

I shall have Mother checked for pistils the next time she goes to the doctor.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.