Record Cold in a Warming World

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:58 PM GMT on March 04, 2014

Share this Blog
59
+

An impressive blast of Arctic air has toppled more records for all-time March cold over the Eastern U.S., in the wake of the major snowstorm that brought 4 - 8" of snow from Missouri to Maryland. Fresh snow is very efficient at radiating heat to space, and the 3.8" of snow that fell in Baltimore on Monday helped drive the temperature down to 5°F on Monday night, tying the city's all-time March low temperature record set on March 4, 1873. The temperature eventually dipped down to 4°F Tuesday morning, breaking the March record. Atlantic City, NJ, which got 5.5" of snow on Monday, also set a new all-time cold record for the month of March on Monday night, when the temperature fell to 2°F. The previous all-time low for the month of March was 3°F set on March 4, 2009. Official records for the Atlantic City area date back to 1874.

At least five other cities have set or tied all-time March cold temperature records during the current cold wave:

Charlottesville, Virginia set an all-time March low of 1°F Tuesday morning (previous record: 7°F on March 4, 1943.)

Billings, Montana set an all-time March low of -21° on March 2, 2014 (previous record: -19°.)

Pierre, South Dakota set an all-time March low on both March 1 and March 2, dipping to -20° (previous record: -19°F on March 11, 1998.)

Flint, Michigan set an all-time March low of -16° on March 3 (previous record: -12°.)

Rockford, Illinois tied its all-time March record low of -11° on March 3.

At least five U.S. cities have set records for their coldest winter on record, as detailed by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest blog post. He has not yet compiled a list of cities that have set a record for their warmest winter on record during 2013 - 2014, but I know of at least two: Las Vegas, Nevada, and Tucson, Arizona.


Figure 1. Departure of surface temperature from average as diagnosed by the GFS model at 00 UTC March 4, 2014. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) allowed cold air to spill southwards out of the Arctic over the Eastern U.S., bringing temperatures up to 36°F (20°C) below average. Compensating warm air flowed northwards into the Arctic underneath a ridge of high pressure over Europe. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.

How can a planet that is warming experience record cold?
This week's impressive cold blast brings up the question: How can a planet undergoing "global warming" experience record cold? Well, it's a big planet, and the weather has naturally crazy extremes. We expect to see many locations experience all-time daily and monthly cold records each month. It's just that the number of these cold records will be outnumbered by all-time heat records, when averaged over the globe, and over decades. It is called Global Warming for good reason! A 2009 study led by Dr. Jerry Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO found that in the U.S., the ratio of the number of record daily highs to lows was near 1:1 in the 1960s and 1970s, but had increased to more than 2:1 during the decade of the 2000s, due to our warming climate. The ratio for the 2010’s was approximately 2.4-to-1 for daily records, for the four years 2010 - 2013, as explained in detail at Guy Walton's wunderblog. If "business as usual" emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide continue this century, this ratio of record highs to record lows is expected to increase to 20:1 by the year 2050, and 50:1 by 2100. So, even on planet experiencing extreme global warming, we will still see a few record low temperatures in the 22nd Century.


Figure 2. Ratio of record daily highs to record daily lows observed at about 1,800 weather stations in the 48 contiguous United States from January 1950 through September 2009. Each bar shows the proportion of record highs (red) to record lows (blue) for each decade. The 1960s and 1970s saw slightly more record daily lows than highs, but in the last 30 years record highs have increasingly predominated, with the ratio now about two-to-one for the 48 states as a whole. ©UCAR, graphic by Mike Shibao; data from a 2009 study led by Dr. Jerry Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO.

Two Years Ago: Summer in March
When we do break all-time heat records in the current warming climate, we should expect that some of these new records will crush the old records in phenomenal ways. That was the case during the astonishing U.S. record-breaking "Summer in March" heat wave just two years ago, in 2012. It was the warmest March on record for the contiguous U.S., 8.6°F above the 20th century average for March, and 0.5°F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months that have passed since the U.S. record began in 1895, only one month, January 2006, had a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012. Every state in the nation experienced a record warm daily temperature during March, and 25 states east of the Rockies had their warmest March on record. An additional 15 states had monthly temperatures ranking among their ten warmest. All-time March records were broken at 290 stations, with some stations breaking their all-time March record four times. There were 21 instances of the nighttime temperatures being as warm, or warmer, than the existing record daytime temperature for a given date. Four stations broke daily records by 30°F or more.


Figure 3. "This is the kind of sunset that you can expect to see in July, not in March. 77°F when I took this," said the caption on this wunderphoto taken on March 17, 2012 in Windom, Minnesota by wunderphotographer sally.

Jeff Masters

Apostle Islands Ice (walcek)
You drive on 3-ft. minimum thick ice for a couple miles out to these islands on frozen Lake Superior. (Saves on kayaking workout)
Apostle Islands Ice
Frozen Silence (RevMac)
No one else was out walking a very popular Nashville park on a frozen ice and snow storm day in early March.
Frozen Silence

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1183 - 1133

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24Blog Index

1183. Jffklly
11:25 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
not to be critical, but was the statement "Fresh snow is very efficient at radiating heat to space," intending to say 'Fresh snow is very efficient at REFLECTING heat to space'?
Member Since: September 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
1182. WarsawIN
10:18 PM GMT on March 13, 2014
Your claim that Fort Wayne has had the snowiest winter on record is incorrect. According to data on the Midwest Regional Climate Center website, the snowiest winter season (Dec 1-Feb 28) is 61.1" 1981-82. This winter season (Dec 1-Feb 28) at Fort Wayne was second with 59.4". For the snow year (Jul 1- Jun 30) the record most snow at Fort Wayne is 81.2" in 1981-82. So far this snow year (through Mar 12) Fort Wayne has had 72.2" which is 2nd snowiest (so far).
Member Since: January 5, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
1181. Andrebrooks
4:08 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
An El Niño Watch is in effect for the Equalaterial Pacific for this summer.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 29 Comments: 991
1180. Chapelhill
3:06 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Quoting 1157. StormTrackerScott:


Low is really deepening about 200 miles west of Tampa right now. I hope C & S FL are ready for what is about to go down.
Cold air wedge is getting stronger over NC as the Gulf low deepens. NE winds at 13 gusting to 18. Dewpoint at 19 degrees. Winter weather adv. goes into effect at 6pm for mixed precip. Yea, more winter!
Member Since: August 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 426
1179. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:00 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Quoting 1170. ricderr:
My possibly incredibly stoopid observation: it doesn't FEEL like this is going to get severe. At least not here. It just feels like it's going to be a long, rainy day. Sometimes, being outside, you can sense when the weather is going to really go downhill. this doesn't feel like that to me. Your thoughts?


my big toe says no rain in el paso today


your under extreme tumbleweeds condition

dry up blow away
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1178. BobinTampa
2:58 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Quoting 1170. ricderr:
My possibly incredibly stoopid observation: it doesn't FEEL like this is going to get severe. At least not here. It just feels like it's going to be a long, rainy day. Sometimes, being outside, you can sense when the weather is going to really go downhill. this doesn't feel like that to me. Your thoughts?


my big toe says no rain in el paso today


Just checked. 0%. Big toe nailed it.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
1177. LargoFl
2:58 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
941 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

GMZ830-850-853-856-870-873-876-061530-
941 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS...

AT 933 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS UP TO 33
KNOTS FROM CEDAR KEY TO 60 NM WEST OF SARASOTA...MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES. BOATERS SHOULD
SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS WITH LITTLE OR NO
ADVANCE WARNING. SEEK SAFETY IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 2924 8304 2919 8306 2919 8295 2903 8273
2896 8272 2890 8262 2826 8272 2818 8279
2807 8277 2788 8285 2692 8238 2667 8328
2740 8366 2787 8378 2849 8379 2886 8404
2913 8359 2930 8315

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
1176. hydrus
2:58 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Cold
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20495
1175. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:58 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1174. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:57 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Melbourne, FL (KMLB) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1173. LargoFl
2:57 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Quoting 1171. Naga5000:


To be fair, there is certainly no good time for I-4. :)
gee i used to travel it every day before i retired..i know what you mean for sure.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
1172. LargoFl
2:56 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
well more and more thunder here on the coast..havent had a storm like this in quite awhile huh..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
1171. Naga5000
2:55 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Quoting 1152. LargoFl:
yeah for sure,not a good idea being on I-4 today


To be fair, there is certainly no good time for I-4. :)
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3246
1170. ricderr
2:55 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
My possibly incredibly stoopid observation: it doesn't FEEL like this is going to get severe. At least not here. It just feels like it's going to be a long, rainy day. Sometimes, being outside, you can sense when the weather is going to really go downhill. this doesn't feel like that to me. Your thoughts?


my big toe says no rain in el paso today
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 670 Comments: 21389
1169. LargoFl
2:54 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Quoting 1167. BobinTampa:


My possibly incredibly stoopid observation: it doesn't FEEL like this is going to get severe. At least not here. It just feels like it's going to be a long, rainy day. Sometimes, being outside, you can sense when the weather is going to really go downhill. this doesn't feel like that to me. Your thoughts?
no we are just getting to outer rains..the strong stuff is still way out in the gulf closer to the low..when that gets here..well..we'll see what happens...every warning says the heavy stuff comes late afternoon and evening
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
1168. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:51 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Moody AFB, GA (KVAX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1167. BobinTampa
2:51 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Quoting 1160. LargoFl:
yes latest updates say this might turn severe..we'll see..pouring steady rain by me with some booming..not too much wind yet


My possibly incredibly stoopid observation: it doesn't FEEL like this is going to get severe. At least not here. It just feels like it's going to be a long, rainy day. Sometimes, being outside, you can sense when the weather is going to really go downhill. this doesn't feel like that to me. Your thoughts?
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
1166. LargoFl
2:51 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Quoting 1164. PalmBeachWeather:
Looks like all heck will break out for me later this evening...Jupiter got hammered last night.v
yes it seems we all are in for it later on..stay safe down there
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
1165. LargoFl
2:50 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Geez its a Good thing this isnt July huh........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
1164. PalmBeachWeather
2:49 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Looks like all heck will break out for me later this evening...Jupiter got hammered last night.v
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5818
1163. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:49 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1162. LargoFl
2:47 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
birdbath is full already..not scientific but goes to show how much rain is falling here by me...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
1161. LargoFl
2:46 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Quoting 1155. GeorgiaStormz:
wow georgia your going to get some of this also..stay safe up there ok
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
1160. LargoFl
2:44 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Quoting 1157. StormTrackerScott:


Low is really deepening about 200 miles west of Tampa right now. I hope C & S FL are ready for what is about to go down.
yes latest updates say this might turn severe..we'll see..pouring steady rain by me with some booming..not too much wind yet
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
1159. StormTrackerScott
2:42 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Some of the models are showing 50 to 60mph winds this afternoon across C FL as the low comes across. Well see.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
1158. ricderr
2:41 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
You gotta love these "climate" scientists. If it gets warm it's global warming and if it gets cold it's global warming. Either way they get their government funding for their studies.

"the internet is the perfect platform for people to prove their ignorance to a large audience."

JR
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 670 Comments: 21389
1157. StormTrackerScott
2:41 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Quoting 1155. GeorgiaStormz:


Low is really deepening about 200 miles west of Tampa right now. I hope C & S FL are ready for what is about to go down.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
1156. CybrTeddy
2:40 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Quoting 1120. rjsenterp:
You gotta love these "climate" scientists. If it gets warm it's global warming and if it gets cold it's global warming. Either way they get their government funding for their studies.


Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
1155. GeorgiaStormz
2:36 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
1154. LargoFl
2:35 PM GMT on March 06, 2014

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
905 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...
...DAMAGING WIND/HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADOES POSSIBLE...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND NUISANCE FLOODING IN AFTERNOON

CURRENT...A WARM FRONT ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM KISSIMMEE TO MCO AIRPORT
AND TITUSVILLE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. A MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT WITH 70F DEWPOINTS WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT. THE LTST SOUNDING FROM
XMR YIELDED AN ENVIRONMENTALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS LARGELY DUE
TO THE OVERLYING COLD POOL OF -14C @H5 ALONG WITH PWAT NR 1.4
INCHES. CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT MCS UPSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WL ACT TO INHIBIT CONV POTENTIAL THIS MORNING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE THEME PARKS AND NORTH BREVARD COUNTY NWD.

IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTN WITH APCH OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW
ABNORMALLY CLOSE TO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA ALONG WITH SOME SB
HEATING AND THE INCREASED WINDS ALOFT. THE CONSIDERABLE RAIN SHIELD
MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST WL BE MONITORED FOR EMBEDDED
CELLS TO OBTAIN ANY STRUCTURE AND CANNOT IGNORE THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT
FOR PSBL HAIL DEVELOPMENT. TIMING FRO ONSET OF STRONGER STORMS
APPEARS TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AND FROM THE OSCEOLA
THEME PARKS TO COCOA AND SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON.

IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT AN ORGANIZED OR BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
WILL TRAVERSE ECFL DURING THE DAY AND EMERGE OFF OF THE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

(MODIFIED PREV DISC) MODEL SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY SHOW GREATEST
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (HELICITIES) FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LIFTING WARM FRONT(VALUES 400-600)...AND SOUTHWARD
(VALUES 200-400). GREATER INSTABILITY IS MORE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTH
WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE THINNER...BUT DEGREE OF OVERALL
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. WINDS MAY STAY BACKED TO THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TREASURE OR SPACE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THUS
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

WL UPDATE FORECAST SHORTLY FOR A FEW ADJUSTMENTS IN AREAL VERBIAGE.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
1153. FatPenguin
2:34 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Quoting 1120. rjsenterp:
You gotta love these "climate" scientists. If it gets warm it's global warming and if it gets cold it's global warming. Either way they get their government funding for their studies.


That logic is horrible.

If money were the issue, there would be plenty of it for scientists who could prove AGW false with peer-reviewed, published papers. I'm pretty sure the fossil fuel industry could easily out-spend the tiny government grants if they thought the scientists could disprove AGW. However, that's not happening. Why? Because there are NO such scientific papers. Again, that logic is total fail.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
1152. LargoFl
2:33 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Quoting 1150. BobinTampa:
Sooo, I'm guessing I picked a bad day to visit the Orlando offices?

Think I'll go ahead and reschedule that.
yeah for sure,not a good idea being on I-4 today
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
1151. LargoFl
2:32 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
1150. BobinTampa
2:28 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Sooo, I'm guessing I picked a bad day to visit the Orlando offices?

Think I'll go ahead and reschedule that.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
1149. ARiot
2:27 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Quoting 1120. rjsenterp:
You gotta love these "climate" scientists. If it gets warm it's global warming and if it gets cold it's global warming. Either way they get their government funding for their studies.


On this magical government funding, how much is it annually?

How does it compare to other government funding for federal R & D?

Who gets it?

How may jobs does it provide for?

What does the average climate researcher working a government grant make while working a study?

How much do we support renewable energy compared to fossil fuel energy through federal money and resource security?

Who benefits from understanding climate patterns?

Answer these questions and you will probably no longer make silly comments about government research money.





Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 366
1148. LargoFl
2:26 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
901 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.NOW...THE LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST THIS
MORNING. THE NORTHERNMOST AREAS ARE NOW PUSHING ACROSS AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 4...INCLUDING THE ORLANDO METRO. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

THE WARM FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...
APPROXIMATELY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO BROOKSVILLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
BREVARD...OKEECHOBEE...AND THE TREASURE COAST WHERE CLOUD COVER IS
THINNER AND BETTER DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE ONSET OF
RAIN. EVEN IN AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT...EMBEDDED STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DOWNBURSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL.

PEOPLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD STAY INFORMED OF THE
WEATHER TODAY...AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN YOUR AREA.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
1147. LargoFl
2:23 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Flood Warning

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
909 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE FL HAS ISSUED A FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN FLORIDA...

SANTA FE RIVER AT FORT WHITE AFFECTING ALACHUA...BRADFORD...
COLUMBIA...GILCHRIST...SUWANNEE AND UNION COUNTIES

.ADDITIONAL RAINFALL RUNOFF FLOWING INTO THE ALREADY ELEVATED SANTA
FE RIVER WILL CAUSE THE RIVER TO REACH FLOOD STAGE AT FORT WHITE ON
FRIDAY EVENING. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CREST A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE ON MONDAY. FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED BASED ON ACTUAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH TODAYS EVENT...SO RESIDENTS AND THOSE WITH INTERESTS
ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS
AND FORECASTS.

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
1146. CuriousAboutClimate
2:23 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
yoboi continues to blatantly lie with his 10% claim.

the science says:



meanwhile yoboi never provides a single shred of evidence backing up his 10% lie.
Member Since: January 28, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 199
1145. LargoFl
2:22 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
1144. Tropicsweatherpr
2:20 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
CPC issues El Nino Watch. See the update at my ENSO blog.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14004
1143. Naga5000
2:11 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Quoting 1120. rjsenterp:
You gotta love these "climate" scientists. If it gets warm it's global warming and if it gets cold it's global warming. Either way they get their government funding for their studies.


Yes, it is clearly a global conspiracy about grant funding because a career in academia makes scientists so rich. All the world's scientists, governments, academics, and major scientific organizations are involved in a conspiracy over grant funding. Are you aware of how absurd that actually sounds?

Personally, I love all my Ferrari's and summer homes in France. They said be an engineer, make the big bucks! I said no way, social science is the life for me: fast cars, government grants, women, and lavish homes.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3246
1142. LargoFl
2:08 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
might be some supercell storms today...........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
1141. Neapolitan
2:07 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Well, last week's rains helped California, but not a whole lot:

The most significant storm of the season crossed California, delivering drought-easing rainfall to coastal areas and beneficial snow in the Sierra Nevada. In addition, rain in California’s agricultural regions temporarily eased irrigation requirements and aided drought-stressed rangeland and winter grains. However, spring and summer runoff prospects improved only slightly, as pre-storm snowpack values were near record lows and because drought-parched soils soaked up most of the available moisture. In addition, the storm moved too far south to provide optimal amounts of moisture in California’s key watershed areas, with the heaviest precipitation occurring in coastal and southern California rather than the Sierra Nevada.

drought

drought

The big ugly bruise remains...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13456
1140. Neapolitan
2:06 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Quoting 1120. rjsenterp:
You gotta love these "climate" scientists. If it gets warm it's global warming and if it gets cold it's global warming. Either way they get their government funding for their studies.
Yeah, I know, right? I was looking at the Fortune list of the 100 richest people in the world, and almost every one of them is a climate scientist. There's not a single fossil fuel merchant among them!
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13456
1139. LargoFl
2:05 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Local met said the bad time will be when that big bend in the jetstream comes over us later today.......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
1138. LargoFl
2:01 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
1137. LargoFl
2:01 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Quoting 1135. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
here comes the heavy stuff largo

yes just heard the thunder..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
1136. weathermanwannabe
2:01 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
Good Morning from the steady rain in the Tallahassee/North Florida area.  I am working in Quincy today West of Tally and just drove through the rain.  No t-storms but just a steady downpour.

April [March] Showers Bring May [April] Flowers.

Here is the jet stream set up for today for the US and parts of Florida later today:


Lots of potential there for gusty winds along with t-storms for parts of Florida today and we will have to see how daytime heating impacts instability and the potential for a few tornado watches later.  However, it is not looking like an organized severe weather event at this point.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8785
1135. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:59 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
here comes the heavy stuff largo

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1134. LargoFl
1:58 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
ok so any severe stuff comes later today and this evening.............................THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR THAT WILL FACILITATE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL
BRING THE LOW INTO THE PENINSULA SOMEWHERE AROUND THE BIG BEND
AREA SOUTH TO TAMPA AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE EARLY CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS COULD ALSO ALLOW MODEST
SURFACE HEATING TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
CLOUD COVER...THUS INCREASING INSTABILITY WHILE REMAINING IN THE
WARM SECTOR. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD CIRRUS DECK
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
POSSIBLY A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
DECENT HEATING AND BETTER THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS THAN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT CAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4C TO -5C.
H5 TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROGGED AROUND -10C TO -12C WHICH WITH
THE GIVEN INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT.

ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. MODEL SOUNDING DEPICTIONS OF 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES HAVE
INCREASED AND NOW RANGE FROM AROUND 100 TO 150 M2/S2 WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALSO FACILITATE AN INCREASE IN
0-1 KM SHEAR. ALL IN ALL...THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.

BY EARLY EVENING THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TREKKING
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN FURTHER AS THE PARENT H5 TROUGH BECOMES MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BEGINS TO TAKE ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT. BY THIS TIME...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN
DRAGGING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY IT. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE MORE LINEAR IN
NATURE AND COULD POSE AN ADDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITHIN STRONGER
LINE SEGMENTS. THESE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THEY BECOME MORE DISCONNECTED FROM BETTER DYNAMICS TO THE
NORTH AND WITH HEATING LOSS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
1133. VR46L
1:56 PM GMT on March 06, 2014
RAMMB Imagery

Loop Embedded


Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6829

Viewing: 1183 - 1133

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.