Record Cold in a Warming World

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:58 PM GMT on March 04, 2014

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An impressive blast of Arctic air has toppled more records for all-time March cold over the Eastern U.S., in the wake of the major snowstorm that brought 4 - 8" of snow from Missouri to Maryland. Fresh snow is very efficient at radiating heat to space, and the 3.8" of snow that fell in Baltimore on Monday helped drive the temperature down to 5°F on Monday night, tying the city's all-time March low temperature record set on March 4, 1873. The temperature eventually dipped down to 4°F Tuesday morning, breaking the March record. Atlantic City, NJ, which got 5.5" of snow on Monday, also set a new all-time cold record for the month of March on Monday night, when the temperature fell to 2°F. The previous all-time low for the month of March was 3°F set on March 4, 2009. Official records for the Atlantic City area date back to 1874.

At least five other cities have set or tied all-time March cold temperature records during the current cold wave:

Charlottesville, Virginia set an all-time March low of 1°F Tuesday morning (previous record: 7°F on March 4, 1943.)

Billings, Montana set an all-time March low of -21° on March 2, 2014 (previous record: -19°.)

Pierre, South Dakota set an all-time March low on both March 1 and March 2, dipping to -20° (previous record: -19°F on March 11, 1998.)

Flint, Michigan set an all-time March low of -16° on March 3 (previous record: -12°.)

Rockford, Illinois tied its all-time March record low of -11° on March 3.

At least five U.S. cities have set records for their coldest winter on record, as detailed by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest blog post. He has not yet compiled a list of cities that have set a record for their warmest winter on record during 2013 - 2014, but I know of at least two: Las Vegas, Nevada, and Tucson, Arizona.


Figure 1. Departure of surface temperature from average as diagnosed by the GFS model at 00 UTC March 4, 2014. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) allowed cold air to spill southwards out of the Arctic over the Eastern U.S., bringing temperatures up to 36°F (20°C) below average. Compensating warm air flowed northwards into the Arctic underneath a ridge of high pressure over Europe. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.

How can a planet that is warming experience record cold?
This week's impressive cold blast brings up the question: How can a planet undergoing "global warming" experience record cold? Well, it's a big planet, and the weather has naturally crazy extremes. We expect to see many locations experience all-time daily and monthly cold records each month. It's just that the number of these cold records will be outnumbered by all-time heat records, when averaged over the globe, and over decades. It is called Global Warming for good reason! A 2009 study led by Dr. Jerry Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO found that in the U.S., the ratio of the number of record daily highs to lows was near 1:1 in the 1960s and 1970s, but had increased to more than 2:1 during the decade of the 2000s, due to our warming climate. The ratio for the 2010’s was approximately 2.4-to-1 for daily records, for the four years 2010 - 2013, as explained in detail at Guy Walton's wunderblog. If "business as usual" emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide continue this century, this ratio of record highs to record lows is expected to increase to 20:1 by the year 2050, and 50:1 by 2100. So, even on planet experiencing extreme global warming, we will still see a few record low temperatures in the 22nd Century.


Figure 2. Ratio of record daily highs to record daily lows observed at about 1,800 weather stations in the 48 contiguous United States from January 1950 through September 2009. Each bar shows the proportion of record highs (red) to record lows (blue) for each decade. The 1960s and 1970s saw slightly more record daily lows than highs, but in the last 30 years record highs have increasingly predominated, with the ratio now about two-to-one for the 48 states as a whole. ©UCAR, graphic by Mike Shibao; data from a 2009 study led by Dr. Jerry Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO.

Two Years Ago: Summer in March
When we do break all-time heat records in the current warming climate, we should expect that some of these new records will crush the old records in phenomenal ways. That was the case during the astonishing U.S. record-breaking "Summer in March" heat wave just two years ago, in 2012. It was the warmest March on record for the contiguous U.S., 8.6°F above the 20th century average for March, and 0.5°F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months that have passed since the U.S. record began in 1895, only one month, January 2006, had a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012. Every state in the nation experienced a record warm daily temperature during March, and 25 states east of the Rockies had their warmest March on record. An additional 15 states had monthly temperatures ranking among their ten warmest. All-time March records were broken at 290 stations, with some stations breaking their all-time March record four times. There were 21 instances of the nighttime temperatures being as warm, or warmer, than the existing record daytime temperature for a given date. Four stations broke daily records by 30°F or more.


Figure 3. "This is the kind of sunset that you can expect to see in July, not in March. 77°F when I took this," said the caption on this wunderphoto taken on March 17, 2012 in Windom, Minnesota by wunderphotographer sally.

Jeff Masters

Apostle Islands Ice (walcek)
You drive on 3-ft. minimum thick ice for a couple miles out to these islands on frozen Lake Superior. (Saves on kayaking workout)
Apostle Islands Ice
Frozen Silence (RevMac)
No one else was out walking a very popular Nashville park on a frozen ice and snow storm day in early March.
Frozen Silence

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This hurricane season will obviously be a bust, since we will only have 29 named storms, 28 hurricanes, and 27 major hurricanes, with 26 US tropical landfalls, 25 US Hurricane Landfalls, and 24 US major hurricane landfalls, 23 of which will be cat 5s.
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Lol at people trying to already call a bust 3-7 months out in advance.The funniest ish yet.


no way......check out the 120 day models...they're showing cat 5's already lined up tampa bound
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Quoting 823. washingtonian115:
Lol at people trying to already call a bust 3-7 months out in advance.The funniest ish yet.


Yeah. Way to early to even guess as to what type of season we will have. A lot depends on if we get an El Nino and if we do - how strong it will be?

My forecast:
Named storms: 6-25
Hurricanes: 2-17
Majors: 0-8

How's that for sticking my neck out:)?
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Quoting 827. yonzabam:


Interesting article. The phrase 'snowball in hell's chance' springs to mind. Transporting a plane with a 50 metre wingspan on a spaceship to Venus? Well, maybe they'll fold the wings, or something.



They said inflatable..
So I'm thinking a smallish packing arrangement..
All technology needed for the mission is already a known..
So it's doable..
Kinda cool (HOTTT)..Lol.. :)
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829. VR46L
Quoting 817. yonzabam:


You mean for two weeks last June!


Na it was beautiful most of the summer, well in Ireland last year !
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If anyone wants to chim in about ENSO,I have a blog exclusively about that.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14755
Quoting 819. pcola57:


Hey yonzabam..
They've been working on a Venus probe mission..
From Space.com..

Inflatable Aircraft Could Cruise Venus Skies..
For complete article Click Image below..




Interesting article. The phrase 'snowball in hell's chance' springs to mind. Transporting a plane with a 50 metre wingspan on a spaceship to Venus? Well, maybe they'll fold the wings, or something.

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Quoting 823. washingtonian115:
Lol at people trying to already call a bust 3-7 months out in advance.The funniest ish yet.


Hey Washi..
Not me..
I'm expecting a vibrant T/C season..
All fish I hope.. :)
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Quoting 821. LargoFl:
12Z GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE 12Z
NAM WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES FL.
12Z GFS SOUNDINGS DEPICT A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AT 900 MILLIBARS
(3500 FEET) MIGRATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.


I wouldn't be surprised if we have some severe storms in Central Fl tomorrow. Maybe a tornado or two. The question is will they hit the coast this time or develop more inland has they have done in the past.
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Lol at people trying to already call a bust 3-7 months out in advance.The funniest ish yet.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17599
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12Z GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE 12Z
NAM WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES FL.
12Z GFS SOUNDINGS DEPICT A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AT 900 MILLIBARS
(3500 FEET) MIGRATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
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Also years that El-nino was building in across the Pacific have yielded a very inactive tornado season like 2009
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Quoting 808. yonzabam:


It's very complex stuff. It's believed that greenhouse gases, including water vapour, warm the Earth's surface by 33C. So, without them, Earth would probably be a snowball in space, and life, if it existed at all, would only exist in a tundra region girdling the equator.

One of the most problematic areas is the fact that the more CO2 in the air, the less warming each additional molecule contributes. That's because it traps outgoing IR radiation at two narrow wavelengths, and the more CO2, the more 'saturated' those wavelengths become. At some point, so much IR is being trapped that any additional CO2 would have no additional warming effect.

I've no idea how good a handle scientists have on this, but Venus shows what can happen when the greenhouse effect goes 'runaway'. The molten lead temperature at the surface of Venus is believed to be due to CO2 and water vapour.


Hey yonzabam..
They've been working on a Venus probe mission..
Much to learn about greenhouse runaway..
From Space.com..

Inflatable Aircraft Could Cruise Venus Skies..
For complete article Click Image below..


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Quoting 813. nwobilderburg:


Does having a lack of storms cause negative effects, like drought or something


Well here in FL the years we had plenty of named systems ie 2010, 2011, & 2012 were all relatively dry years overall in FL. So it depends and then I've seen years where we have had very few storms but then have had one of our wetter years. The reason is when storms form they tend to veer out to sea and as a result would cause sinking air to build in over FL basically shutting down sea storm formation across the FL Penisula for several days until the storm gets far enough away for our moisture to build back in. .
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Quoting 816. VR46L:


Lack of real storms means a beautiful summer in the British Isles Like last summer !


You mean for two weeks last June!
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816. VR46L
Quoting 813. nwobilderburg:


Does having a lack of storms cause negative effects, like drought or something


Lack of real storms means a beautiful summer in the British Isles Like last summer !
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stay alert to your local warnings central florida tomorrow.......................................... .....
THU...MODELS ARE BETTER DEFINING THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. MOS POPS GO FROM AROUND 60 SOUTH TO ALMOST 100
OVER THE NORTH LIMIT OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF MODEL TIMING IS
CORRECT...SHOULD BE LOOKING AT LIKELY COVERAGE EARLY IN THE MORNING
THEN RAMPING UP TO CATEGORICAL INDIAN RIVER AND OSCEOLA CO`S NORTH
BY NOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS OR HIGHER
FROM 1 TO 3 KM AGL FAVOR THE FORMATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER
THURSDAY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 809. StormTrackerScott:


I agree, but hurricane Season 2014 doesn't look good for the Atlantic Basin in terms of lack of storms. You never know though.


Does having a lack of storms cause negative effects, like drought or something
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todays gulf storms getting closer now.......
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Quoting 802. StormTrackerScott:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
228 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...
...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS FORECAST THURSDAY...
...DAMAGING WIND AND BRIEF TORNADOES POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...


CURRENT-TONIGHT...A STALLED FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE GULF WHILE MOVING EASTWARD. A GOOD FETCH
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND WILL MAKE
FOR A WARM OVERNIGHT. WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOWING OVER A
SHALLOW RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT
PROCESS THAT WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS/MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

THU...MODELS ARE BETTER DEFINING THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. MOS POPS GO FROM AROUND 60 SOUTH TO ALMOST 100
OVER THE NORTH LIMIT OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF MODEL TIMING IS
CORRECT...SHOULD BE LOOKING AT LIKELY COVERAGE EARLY IN THE MORNING
THEN RAMPING UP TO CATEGORICAL INDIAN RIVER AND OSCEOLA CO`S NORTH
BY NOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS OR HIGHER
FROM 1 TO 3 KM AGL FAVOR THE FORMATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER
THURSDAY.


THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARDS WOULD BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS...HOWEVER
HELICITY VALUES IN THE LOWEST 3KM INITIALLY ABOVE 100 SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN SOME CELLS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE ALONG THE WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ADVANCING NORTHWARD
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
ONE CAN REFER TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER`S
DAY TWO OUTLOOK...SWODY2...FOR MORE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION OF THE
UPCOMING WEATHER AND OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS...HWO...FOR
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THURSDAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN FOR A STORMY DAY OR TWO HUH SCOTT..
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Quoting 806. ncstorm:


its too early to know what we will have this year..


I agree, but hurricane Season 2014 doesn't look good for the Atlantic Basin in terms of lack of storms. You never know though.
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Quoting 798. ricderr:
The scientific evidence tells us that human activities are largely responsible for our warming climate



i'm not disputing this....but please explain how and what evidence...we're told that increased carbon...but is there a formula stating such and such an increase should be responsible for X degree in heat...thanx


It's very complex stuff. It's believed that greenhouse gases, including water vapour, warm the Earth's surface by 33C. So, without them, Earth would probably be a snowball in space, and life, if it existed at all, would only exist in a tundra region girdling the equator.

One of the most problematic areas is the fact that the more CO2 in the air, the less warming each additional molecule contributes. That's because it traps outgoing IR radiation at two narrow wavelengths, and the more CO2, the more 'saturated' those wavelengths become. At some point, so much IR is being trapped that any additional CO2 would have no additional warming effect.

I've no idea how good a handle scientists have on this, but Venus shows what can happen when the greenhouse effect goes 'runaway'. The molten lead temperature at the surface of Venus is believed to be due to CO2 and water vapour.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 804. ncstorm:
so dust in March is the end to the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season that lasts from June to November..

well that is that..


Hey nc..
I think the Atlantic T/C season is going to at, the least, be close to climatological averages..
Hoping for good watching with lives spared..
Fingers crossed.. :)
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Quoting 805. StormTrackerScott:


Home grown systems are always fun. We might have plenty of those this year.


its too early to know what we will have this year..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16208
Quoting 804. ncstorm:
so dust in March is the end to the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season that lasts from June to November..

well that is that..


Home grown systems are always fun. We might have plenty of those this year.
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so dust in March is the end to the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season that lasts from June to November..can someone let NOAA know so they wont look silly in putting out a hurricane prediction analysis..

well that is that..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16208
Quoting 796. StormTrackerScott:


W-Pac maybe slow as well. The only active area I see this year will be across the Eastern Pacific due to the warming of the equatorial waters in that region.


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
228 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...
...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS FORECAST THURSDAY...
...DAMAGING WIND AND BRIEF TORNADOES POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...


CURRENT-TONIGHT...A STALLED FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE GULF WHILE MOVING EASTWARD. A GOOD FETCH
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND WILL MAKE
FOR A WARM OVERNIGHT. WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOWING OVER A
SHALLOW RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT
PROCESS THAT WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS/MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

THU...MODELS ARE BETTER DEFINING THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. MOS POPS GO FROM AROUND 60 SOUTH TO ALMOST 100
OVER THE NORTH LIMIT OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF MODEL TIMING IS
CORRECT...SHOULD BE LOOKING AT LIKELY COVERAGE EARLY IN THE MORNING
THEN RAMPING UP TO CATEGORICAL INDIAN RIVER AND OSCEOLA CO`S NORTH
BY NOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS OR HIGHER
FROM 1 TO 3 KM AGL FAVOR THE FORMATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER
THURSDAY.


THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARDS WOULD BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS...HOWEVER
HELICITY VALUES IN THE LOWEST 3KM INITIALLY ABOVE 100 SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN SOME CELLS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE ALONG THE WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ADVANCING NORTHWARD
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
ONE CAN REFER TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER`S
DAY TWO OUTLOOK...SWODY2...FOR MORE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION OF THE
UPCOMING WEATHER AND OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS...HWO...FOR
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THURSDAY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 793. Gearsts:
Not looking good for the season to come :( I hope the Wpac can give us a show this year cause is looking like a boring season like 2013.


I can't imagine 2014 being as pathetic as the 2013 season was. Big question is homegrown quality systems this season?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14755
I have no clue ... Just a dust storm like that could shred the cape verdes season at the end of August




ahhh...but august is the start of their rainy season
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799. VR46L
Quoting 795. Gearsts:
No CapeVerde season but look closer to home O_o


Is it not too early to write off the Cape Verdes already ... August is a long way away
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The scientific evidence tells us that human activities are largely responsible for our warming climate



i'm not disputing this....but please explain how and what evidence...we're told that increased carbon...but is there a formula stating such and such an increase should be responsible for X degree in heat...thanx
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
797. VR46L
Quoting 792. StormTrackerScott:


LOL! You got to be kidding. Is hurricane Season doomed already?



I have no clue ... Just a dust storm like that could shred the cape verdes season at the end of August
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Quoting 793. Gearsts:
Not looking good for the season to come :( I hope the Wpac can give us a show this year cause is looking like a boring season like 2013.


W-Pac maybe slow as well. The only active area I see this year will be across the Eastern Pacific due to the warming of the equatorial waters in that region.

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Quoting 792. StormTrackerScott:


LOL! You got to be kidding. Is hurricane Season doomed already?

No CapeVerde season but look closer to home O_o
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Quoting 789. Tropicsweatherpr:


Wow,that is a strong outbreak for early March. Not a good sign for an active CV season if these big outbreaks are the norm this year.


Quoting 790. VR46L:


Wonder if thats a foreboding sign for the season ...


I really don't know the answer..
But sure seems like alot of dust moves through this region most all year long..
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Quoting 789. Tropicsweatherpr:


Wow,that is a strong outbreak for early March. Not a good sign for an active CV season if these big outbreaks are the norm this year.
Not looking good for the season to come :( I hope the Wpac can give us a show this year cause is looking like a boring season like 2013.
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Quoting 790. VR46L:


Wonder if thats a foreboding sign for the season ...


LOL! You got to be kidding. Is hurricane Season doomed already?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 696. rickdove:


Well stated and I agree. The only question left is how much is man attributing to the temperature rises. Is it +.000001 degree per century? Is it +3 degrees per century? that to me is the real question. If the answer is +3 degrees per century then maybe we should spend tax dollars on this. If it is .000001 per century, then politicians should stop talking about it.


The scientific evidence tells us that human activities are largely responsible for our warming climate. Even if you would only assign human activities being responsible for just 1% of the warming it still will not take away from the fact that politicians will still need to be talking about this. Why, you may ask? Simple, human induced or not, adaptive measures will still need to be taken for the warming that is coming and for all that this will entail. What defies logic is that there are those that will stand in the way of moving towards adaptation now. How are they able to justify this in their own mind, let alone to try to justify this to anyone else? This remains a mystery to me.
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790. VR46L
Quoting 786. pcola57:
Cape Verde Under Dust -
March 5, 2014


From NASA Image of the Day..
Click on Image for complete article..





Wonder if thats a foreboding sign for the season ...
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Quoting 786. pcola57:
Cape Verde Under Dust -
March 5, 2014


From NASA Image of the Day..
Click on Image for complete article..





Wow,that is a strong outbreak for early March. Not a good sign for an active CV season if these big outbreaks are the norm this year.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14755
Quoting 744. StormTrackerScott:


At 11:45 it was 63 in Longwood and now it's 74 and climbing but thanks for the concern.


Link please showing this jump in temps at the times you've stated.... Dont' talk the talk if you can't walk the walk....

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Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop.
SLIGHT 21,290 5,490,472
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
Cape Verde Under Dust -
March 5, 2014


From NASA Image of the Day..
Click on Image for complete article..



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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CST WED MAR 05 2014

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SRN
FL...

...SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS PATTERN IS NOW MOVING THROUGH
TX. THIS FEATURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MID-DAY
THURSDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE GULF COASTAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
A MORE SUBTLE IMPULSE PRECEDING THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE ERN GULF AND FL THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD. AT THE
SFC A STALLED FRONT MAY LIFT INTO NRN FL IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SFC
CYCLONE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF ALONG WRN PORTIONS OF THIS
BOUNDARY. THIS SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN FL DURING THE DAY BEFORE
REDEVELOPING OVER THE GULF STREAM THURSDAY EVENING.

...CNTRL THROUGH SRN FL...

RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER SRN FL AND THE CNTRL GULF. A SWLY LLJ IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE ERN GULF BY MID-DAY THURSDAY AND
SHIFT EWD INTO FL AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES PERSIST REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ OVER FL WITH
THE NAM AND SREF MEANS INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER LLJ THAN THE ECMWF
AND GFS. IN EITHER CASE...MID-UPPER FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE
DAY AS THE LEAD IMPULSE AND UPPER TROUGH ADVANCE THROUGH THE GULF
COASTAL AREA WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR INCREASING TO 40-45 KT.
RICHER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS CNTRL/SCNTRL FL TO UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S IN SOUTH FL. HOWEVER...WEAK 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 1000 J/KG...WITH
THE GREATER INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS S FL.

ORGANIZED STORMS/MCS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER THE ERN GULF
EARLY THURSDAY...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST BY
MID-DAY OR DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THE LLJ...VERTICAL WIND PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN
THREAT...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON
DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND STRENGTH OF LLJ. WHILE
A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY ULTIMATELY SERVE AS A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT...A LOWER END SLIGHT
RISK APPEARS WARRANTED.

..DIAL.. 03/05/2014

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
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Current Jet Stream..



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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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