Record Cold in a Warming World

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:58 PM GMT on March 04, 2014

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An impressive blast of Arctic air has toppled more records for all-time March cold over the Eastern U.S., in the wake of the major snowstorm that brought 4 - 8" of snow from Missouri to Maryland. Fresh snow is very efficient at radiating heat to space, and the 3.8" of snow that fell in Baltimore on Monday helped drive the temperature down to 5°F on Monday night, tying the city's all-time March low temperature record set on March 4, 1873. The temperature eventually dipped down to 4°F Tuesday morning, breaking the March record. Atlantic City, NJ, which got 5.5" of snow on Monday, also set a new all-time cold record for the month of March on Monday night, when the temperature fell to 2°F. The previous all-time low for the month of March was 3°F set on March 4, 2009. Official records for the Atlantic City area date back to 1874.

At least five other cities have set or tied all-time March cold temperature records during the current cold wave:

Charlottesville, Virginia set an all-time March low of 1°F Tuesday morning (previous record: 7°F on March 4, 1943.)

Billings, Montana set an all-time March low of -21° on March 2, 2014 (previous record: -19°.)

Pierre, South Dakota set an all-time March low on both March 1 and March 2, dipping to -20° (previous record: -19°F on March 11, 1998.)

Flint, Michigan set an all-time March low of -16° on March 3 (previous record: -12°.)

Rockford, Illinois tied its all-time March record low of -11° on March 3.

At least five U.S. cities have set records for their coldest winter on record, as detailed by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest blog post. He has not yet compiled a list of cities that have set a record for their warmest winter on record during 2013 - 2014, but I know of at least two: Las Vegas, Nevada, and Tucson, Arizona.


Figure 1. Departure of surface temperature from average as diagnosed by the GFS model at 00 UTC March 4, 2014. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) allowed cold air to spill southwards out of the Arctic over the Eastern U.S., bringing temperatures up to 36°F (20°C) below average. Compensating warm air flowed northwards into the Arctic underneath a ridge of high pressure over Europe. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.

How can a planet that is warming experience record cold?
This week's impressive cold blast brings up the question: How can a planet undergoing "global warming" experience record cold? Well, it's a big planet, and the weather has naturally crazy extremes. We expect to see many locations experience all-time daily and monthly cold records each month. It's just that the number of these cold records will be outnumbered by all-time heat records, when averaged over the globe, and over decades. It is called Global Warming for good reason! A 2009 study led by Dr. Jerry Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO found that in the U.S., the ratio of the number of record daily highs to lows was near 1:1 in the 1960s and 1970s, but had increased to more than 2:1 during the decade of the 2000s, due to our warming climate. The ratio for the 2010’s was approximately 2.4-to-1 for daily records, for the four years 2010 - 2013, as explained in detail at Guy Walton's wunderblog. If "business as usual" emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide continue this century, this ratio of record highs to record lows is expected to increase to 20:1 by the year 2050, and 50:1 by 2100. So, even on planet experiencing extreme global warming, we will still see a few record low temperatures in the 22nd Century.


Figure 2. Ratio of record daily highs to record daily lows observed at about 1,800 weather stations in the 48 contiguous United States from January 1950 through September 2009. Each bar shows the proportion of record highs (red) to record lows (blue) for each decade. The 1960s and 1970s saw slightly more record daily lows than highs, but in the last 30 years record highs have increasingly predominated, with the ratio now about two-to-one for the 48 states as a whole. ©UCAR, graphic by Mike Shibao; data from a 2009 study led by Dr. Jerry Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO.

Two Years Ago: Summer in March
When we do break all-time heat records in the current warming climate, we should expect that some of these new records will crush the old records in phenomenal ways. That was the case during the astonishing U.S. record-breaking "Summer in March" heat wave just two years ago, in 2012. It was the warmest March on record for the contiguous U.S., 8.6°F above the 20th century average for March, and 0.5°F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months that have passed since the U.S. record began in 1895, only one month, January 2006, had a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012. Every state in the nation experienced a record warm daily temperature during March, and 25 states east of the Rockies had their warmest March on record. An additional 15 states had monthly temperatures ranking among their ten warmest. All-time March records were broken at 290 stations, with some stations breaking their all-time March record four times. There were 21 instances of the nighttime temperatures being as warm, or warmer, than the existing record daytime temperature for a given date. Four stations broke daily records by 30°F or more.


Figure 3. "This is the kind of sunset that you can expect to see in July, not in March. 77°F when I took this," said the caption on this wunderphoto taken on March 17, 2012 in Windom, Minnesota by wunderphotographer sally.

Jeff Masters

Apostle Islands Ice (walcek)
You drive on 3-ft. minimum thick ice for a couple miles out to these islands on frozen Lake Superior. (Saves on kayaking workout)
Apostle Islands Ice
Frozen Silence (RevMac)
No one else was out walking a very popular Nashville park on a frozen ice and snow storm day in early March.
Frozen Silence

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HIRES NAM SIM RAD 18Z RUN HR 18

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Well, I've spent so many posts this winter to the bad weather in the British Isles that it seems appropriate in my eyes to appreciate this warm and sunny outlook for the weekend as well (and as this should be our weather in Germany too, I've already fixed a little hiking tour for Sunday :-)

UK weather: 17C predicted this weekend as Britain finally warms up
The Independent, today
Parts of Britain could spend the weekend basking in temperatures of 17C, as a wave of high pressure is expected to send the mercury rising in southern England.
Much of the region could enjoy temperatures in the mid-teens on Saturday and Sunday, weeks after heavy downpours and gale-force winds flooded communities and created transport chaos.
The 17C weather would beat the current hottest day of the year so far, which saw highs of 14C in parts of London on 14 February.
The predicted temperatures are almost double the average 9C weather expected for this time of year. ...


17C = 62,6F

Forecast of temperature anomaly for Sunday:


Saved image.

Have a good night all!
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 54 Comments: 5930
Quoting 876. jrweatherman:


There is talk of potential severe weather tomorrow in Florida. Will this rain stabilize the air a bit and lower the risk of severe weather - in particular the West Coast?


It is looking more and more of a heavy rain threat for C FL. S FL maybe the place that see's the severe weather. One thing that will have to be watched is for possible tornadoes along the warm front question is where does it set up and that is what is a bit confusing right now. Some models say N FL and others say C FL. I would bet though a solid 2" to 3" of rain is coming our way.
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Quoting 725. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


so I guess I will have to break out the ugly stick
I have 3 ugly sticks.... Great fishing rods.
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Quoting 873. ncstorm:






Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
Quoting 874. Grothar:


No wonder it's raining here.
just a little shower enough to wet the grass
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Quoting 870. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



There is talk of potential severe weather tomorrow in Florida. Will this rain stabilize the air a bit and lower the risk of severe weather - in particular the West Coast?
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 943
This is from 4am this morning from the NWS Miami WFO. That's a pretty detailed analysis of the severe weather threat of the upcoming week if you asked me LOL.

"PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TODAY. AN EXPECTED SURFACE LOW IS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
TOMORROW. AS IT DOES, IT WILL INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE
LAYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND NORTH FLORIDA. PLUS, THERE IS
A 500MB TROUGH DIGGING AND DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS TROUGH
WILL CAUSE THE SFC LOW TO DEEPEN. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE
MODELS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF. THE NAM IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
GFS. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS TO MAKE LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. ALL THE MODELS HAVE THE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND
THE LOW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIR MASS FOR THE WEEKEND.

NOW, AS FOR HOW THIS DEVELOPING LOW WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. FOR TODAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW, WILL WORK TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE. CUMULUS FORMATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID DAY.
SOME OF THE CU IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND MAY
INTERACT WITH A WEAK CONVERGENCE AREA THAT LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE IN
THE LAKE REGION. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE INSTABILITY, WHICH MAY
RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS, HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND MENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS IN PALM BEACH
COUNTY AND THE LAKE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NAM MODEL SOUNDING FOR PBI SHOWS CAPE AROUND 1700 JOULES, 0-3KM
BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KTS, 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS, A
FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 12300 FT, LOW 0-3KM STORM REL HELICITY, A
VEERING WINDS PROFILE, PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ABOVE NORMAL, BUT
WITHIN 2 SD OF NORMAL, AND STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10KTS. THE
700-500MB LAPSE RATE IS AROUND 5.3. THE NAM SOUNDING IS ALSO
SHOWING A STRONG CAP AT AROUND 700 MB THAT COULD HINDER ANY
DEVELOPMENT AT ALL. THE MODELS DO SHOW A 90-100KT JET AT 250MB
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THEY DO DISAGREE WITH THE EXACT
POSITION. HOWEVER, THIS JET COULD GIVE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO
OVERCOME THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON. THE CAP DOES ERODE BY THIS
EVENING, BUT IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO MAXIMIZE CONVECTION TODAY.
ALSO, WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS
AS CURRENT PARAMETERS DO NOT FAVOR ANY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT.

GOING FORWARD TO TOMORROW AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE CWA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES. CAPE WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 JOULES. THE
700-500MB LAPSE RATE DOES INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 5.7. THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS AROUND 12000FT, AND 500MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -11C. THE WIND
PROFILE IS SLIGHTLY VEERING WITH HEIGHT. 0-3KM HELICITY WILL ONLY
BE AROUND 69. THE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30KTS AND
THE 0-6KM AROUND 45KTS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER 250MB JET, BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE FURTHER NORTH AND WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST, WHICH ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE, KEEPING THE AREA
OUT OF THE ENTRANCE OR EXIT REGIONS. THIS MAY LIMIT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ON THURSDAY. ALSO, THERE MAY BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL HAMPER INSOLATION. SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR
SO FLORIDA? BASICALLY IT GIVES THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE GIVEN PARAMETERS, SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG, WITH POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE DUE TO
WIND AND/OR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER, BY THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, CONVECTION MAY WANE AS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REDUCE THE
DESTABILIZATION. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE LOW
WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH UNTIL IT EMERGES OVER
THE ATLANTIC, WHICH PUTS THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE CWA FRIDAY
MORNING, PROBABLY MEANS MOST OF THE STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH THE FRONT BRINGING A
LINE OF SHOWERS, POSSIBLY EVEN HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OF
COURSE, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW AND WHAT AFFECT CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE ON DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ANY CHANGES IN TIMING AND/OR CONDITIONS COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE CURRENT FORECAST.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A COOLER AIR MASS TO BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR. ALSO, THE DEW POINTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR, IF NOT AT THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURE, WHICH COULD BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN CURRENTLY LOOKS
TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AND PASSES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA."
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Quoting 871. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
grothar, FL (KAMX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



No wonder it's raining here.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26118


Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15285
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15285
grothar, FL (KAMX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
Quoting 854. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


its not going to be a bust

its got to get here first

then we wait for a bust


Lol I agree... hopping for the best : lots of thunder & rain, lots of strong tropical waves, lots of instability... but also lots of sunny days with clear blue sky and beautiful CBs all around ;-) .. AND PLEASE NO DUST
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Quoting 849. JNTenne:

I'm grammar certainly not prefect


Well, let's face it, nobody's prefect.
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867. Skyepony (Mod)
All that in #859 looks right as far as the math behind the simple idea of it...for those not so mathematically inclined they take this formula or ones a little more complex & use it as a simple climate model..to plug & play, to see the results with different parameters. These usually don't include e & if they do maybe just one layer. Here is one I haven't played with much.. There are more complex ones, they just take alot of computer space & time to run.
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A large storm cloud covers the Sydney CBD on March 5, 2014 in Sydney, Australia. A severe thunderstorm warning was issued for the Sydney metropolitan area late this afternoon with heavy rainfall due to cause flash flooding in areas. (Photo by Cassie Trotter/Getty Images)
Link
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865. ARiot
The advanced tab of this summary that cites the relevant sources will help clarify things.

If you find that summary lacking, perhaps the source material linked within the summary will be more suitable.







Quoting 859. CuriousAboutClimate:
The scientific evidence tells us that human activities are largely responsible for our warming climate



i'm not disputing this....but please explain how and what evidence...we're told that increased carbon...but is there a formula stating such and such an increase should be responsible for X degree in heat...thanx


the equation %u0394F = %u03B1ln(C/Co) is for calculating the change in radiative forcing per change in CO2 concentration. %u03B1 = 5.35

this results in a radiative forcing of 3.7 watts/meter^2 for a doubling of CO2.

incoming radiation at top of atmosphere = ~240 watts/meter^2

at equilibrium, outgoing radiation at top of atmosphere = ~240 watts/meter^2.
outgoing energy can be written as %u03C3T^4.
%u03C3 = 5.67x10^-8.
solve for T and you get ~255 K, the effective radiating temperature of the planet.

so adjust the equation for a decrease in outgoing energy at TOA of 3.7 watts/meter^2 and you get 236.3 watts/meter^2 = %u03C3T^4.
solve for T and you get ~254 K, a change of ~ 1 K at TOA (this is under a scenario in which you instantaneously double CO2). Forcing the planet to radiate at the TOA at 254 K causes the surface to warm up until the atmosphere above it is at 255 K again (you're now at equilibrium). this is the widely-agreed upon 1 degree C warming for a doubling of CO2 without feedbacks. But since feedbacks are likely to be positive (and paleoclimate changes in temperature agree with that), the 1 degree C is amplified.

You can then look at estimates of climate sensitivity, usually written %u0394T = %u0394F%u03BB. so I can make a crude estimate of sensitivity as follows. take CO2 increase since records began (i'm talking about atmospheric CO2 records) and estimate the change in forcing based on the change in CO2. I get 1.27 watts/meter^2 using the first equation above. Take the temperature change over that same timeframe and you get 0.78 degrees C. Solve for %u03BB in the sensitivity equation and you get 0.61. then use the sensitivity equation for a change in forcing of 3.7 watts/meter^2 (a doubling of CO2), and plug in 0.61 for %u03BB and you get a change of 2.27 degrees C for a doubling of CO2. This is just a crude estimate but it should give you an idea of how some of the values you may have seen are determined.

does anyone think I missed anything, other than emissivity? (I left it out to avoid complicating the matter further)
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You don't usually see this until March.


that's a year away
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Quoting 860. Naga5000:


There is no magic formula. It is dependent on other forcings and variables. Be skeptical, however, don't be so quick to dismiss paper after paper that shows humans being responsible for 75%+ of the observed warming.

I think part of the disconnect here is you want some simple plug and play equation and planetary climate forcings are more complex than that.


you make some good points. I think i do want a simple plug and play so we can convince society (ie decision makers) and move on to tackle the problem if needed. I'm sure at some point Einstein was told a simple formula could not explain a complex theory. I can hope.
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Quoting 857. Skyepony:
Extreme Weather in New Zealand on Wednesday, 05 March, 2014 at 17:02 (05:02 PM) UTC.
Description
A clean-up operation is now underway in Christchurch after the worst storm in almost 40 years blasted its way across central parts of New Zealand. Power was cut to hundreds of homes as emergency services were called in to rescue motorists and also to sandbag businesses. Canterbury was badly affected, and there have been mudslides as well as flashfloods across the region. The Fire Service was inundated with nearly 200 calls from residents reporting damage to their homes. The port town of Lyttelton which is a suburb of Christchurch, on the eastern coast of the South Island, reported 160mm of rain in only 24 hours. As a result 19 households were evacuated as the torrential rain blocked transport links. The downpours caused a 10 metre landslip near the end of the Wellington Airport runway. The heavy rain was accompanied by violent winds. Wind gusts as high as 119kph were recorded in exposed areas in and around the Wellington area. Around 3,500 customers remain without power, but the storm weather is now easing. The airport in Christchurch did manage to stay open, but there is a severe backlog due to delays in other parts of the country. KiwiRail is also clearing a backlog after ferry crossings were suspended due to high waves across the Cook Strait. Wind warnings currently remain in place for Wellington, The Wairarapa and coastal Hawkes Bay, but are expected to be lifted by Thursday morning.


There was a nuclear event in Japan today too..


Wow Skye..
The weather is really kicking in New Zealand..
Another mishap/fire at a nuclear at a Japanese plant..
It is beyond me why they went nuclear on an island chain with notoriously bad weather, T/C's, and earthquake/tsunamis..
I bet they had alot of help from the US on those projects..
Feel like there is more bad news in the future to come..
Just a matter of time..
Fukushima is bad enough..
JMO..
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You don't usually see this until March.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26118
Quoting 840. rickdove:


I'm looking more for a formula (like Einstein theory of relativity). I've seen predictive modeling and scientist consensus show to be inaccurate in the past so i'm not quick to believe everything i read. Man does contribute to climate change, again the question is how much? We need an Einstein to come up with the formula.


There is no magic formula. It is dependent on other forcings and variables. Be skeptical, however, don't be so quick to dismiss paper after paper that shows humans being responsible for 75%+ of the observed warming.

I think part of the disconnect here is you want some simple plug and play equation and planetary climate forcings are more complex than that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The scientific evidence tells us that human activities are largely responsible for our warming climate



i'm not disputing this....but please explain how and what evidence...we're told that increased carbon...but is there a formula stating such and such an increase should be responsible for X degree in heat...thanx


the equation ΔF = αln(C/Co) is for calculating the change in radiative forcing per change in CO2 concentration. α = 5.35

this results in a radiative forcing of 3.7 watts/meter^2 for a doubling of CO2.

incoming radiation at top of atmosphere = ~240 watts/meter^2

at equilibrium, outgoing radiation at top of atmosphere = ~240 watts/meter^2.
outgoing energy can be written as σT^4.
σ = 5.67x10^-8.
solve for T and you get ~255 K, the effective radiating temperature of the planet.

so adjust the equation for a decrease in outgoing energy at TOA of 3.7 watts/meter^2 and you get 236.3 watts/meter^2 = σT^4.
solve for T and you get ~254 K, a change of ~ 1 K at TOA (this is under a scenario in which you instantaneously double CO2). Forcing the planet to radiate at the TOA at 254 K causes the surface to warm up until the atmosphere above it is at 255 K again (you're now at equilibrium). this is the widely-agreed upon 1 degree C warming for a doubling of CO2 without feedbacks. But since feedbacks are likely to be positive (and paleoclimate changes in temperature agree with that), the 1 degree C is amplified.

You can then look at estimates of climate sensitivity, usually written ΔT = ΔFλ. so I can make a crude estimate of sensitivity as follows. take CO2 increase since records began (i'm talking about atmospheric CO2 records) and estimate the change in forcing based on the change in CO2. I get 1.27 watts/meter^2 using the first equation above. Take the temperature change over that same timeframe and you get 0.78 degrees C. Solve for λ in the sensitivity equation and you get 0.61. then use the sensitivity equation for a change in forcing of 3.7 watts/meter^2 (a doubling of CO2), and plug in 0.61 for λ and you get a change of 2.27 degrees C for a doubling of CO2. This is just a crude estimate but it should give you an idea of how some of the values you may have seen are determined.

does anyone think I missed anything, other than emissivity? (I left it out to avoid complicating the matter further)
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Quoting 841. Some1Has2BtheRookie:


The Russians have already landed probes on the surface of Venus. The probes did not last very long. We do have better technology and materials now than what we did during that time, but they would still have to very tough machines to survive on Venus for very long.


Agreed..
In the article they said it would have to maintain a certain altitude to last any amount of time..
And a separate satellite in orbit to relay data collected..
Sounds complex..
But engineers at aerospace firms Northrop Grumman and L'Garde know more than I do for sure..
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857. Skyepony (Mod)
Extreme Weather in New Zealand on Wednesday, 05 March, 2014 at 17:02 (05:02 PM) UTC.
Description
A clean-up operation is now underway in Christchurch after the worst storm in almost 40 years blasted its way across central parts of New Zealand. Power was cut to hundreds of homes as emergency services were called in to rescue motorists and also to sandbag businesses. Canterbury was badly affected, and there have been mudslides as well as flashfloods across the region. The Fire Service was inundated with nearly 200 calls from residents reporting damage to their homes. The port town of Lyttelton which is a suburb of Christchurch, on the eastern coast of the South Island, reported 160mm of rain in only 24 hours. As a result 19 households were evacuated as the torrential rain blocked transport links. The downpours caused a 10 metre landslip near the end of the Wellington Airport runway. The heavy rain was accompanied by violent winds. Wind gusts as high as 119kph were recorded in exposed areas in and around the Wellington area. Around 3,500 customers remain without power, but the storm weather is now easing. The airport in Christchurch did manage to stay open, but there is a severe backlog due to delays in other parts of the country. KiwiRail is also clearing a backlog after ferry crossings were suspended due to high waves across the Cook Strait. Wind warnings currently remain in place for Wellington, The Wairarapa and coastal Hawkes Bay, but are expected to be lifted by Thursday morning.


There was a nuclear event in Japan today too..
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Quoting 820. StormTrackerScott:
Also years that El-nino was building in across the Pacific have yielded a very inactive tornado season like 2009
This could get interesting..The
latest Euro has what appears to be a severe weather outbreak in a week or so..

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855. Skyepony (Mod)
I think here's video from that port when the waves were getting started..

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Quoting 850. CaribBoy:


Bust season = dry and boring


its not going to be a bust

its got to get here first

then we wait for a bust
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
Are you able to be more specific in what it is that you are looking for as an answer? Are you looking for the ever elusive, Unifying Theory of Everything? :) I may need a week or two to answer that one for you. LOL


sorry...i meant that answer was fine...thanx again
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852. Skyepony (Mod)
Nuclear Event in USA on Wednesday, 05 March, 2014 at 04:27 (04:27 AM) UTC.
Description
The Nine Mile Point 2 nuclear power plant shut down early today following the an on-site electrical power failure, plant operator Constellation Energy Nuclear Group said. The cause of the power failure is still under review. The loss of the power supply impacted the flow of cooling to both of the plant's reactor recirculation pumps, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission reported. In response, the plant's operators manually scrammed the reactor at 1:43 a.m., which entails inserting all of the control rods to halt the fissioning process. The two NRC resident inspectors assigned to Nine Mile Point will review the event, including troubleshooting on the loss of the power supply and any repairs. The plant is currently in "hot" shutdown, which means the reactor and reactor coolant system remain heated and pressurized, NRC officials said. Constellation officials said the reactor lost power from an apparatus called an "uninterruptible power supply." The reactor shutdown is not expected to impact electrical service to homes and businesses in the region, company officials said. At full power, Nine Mile Point 2 generates 1,360 megawatts, enough for about 1.4 million average households.
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Quoting 848. Skyepony:
Update on the waves

Extreme Weather in Spain on Tuesday, 04 March, 2014 at 03:39 (03:39 AM) UTC.

Back
Updated: Wednesday, 05 March, 2014 at 04:11 UTC
Description
Tidal waves of over 10 metres (32'6") off the north coast of Spain have caused widespread destruction and torrential rain in the south has forced emergency services to evacuate an entire village.


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Member Since: May 21, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 566
Quoting 689. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Depends on what qualifies as a bust.


Bust season = dry and boring
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Quoting 842. Guysgal:
Terrifying article on Antarctic collapse. Link

Sorry to be so critical (its the cold I'm sure) but in the first paragraph of the linked article... "The largest source of the coldest water in the world's oceans ceased producing Antarctic Bottom Water in 1976. The surface water around Antarctica, which has be been freshening since the 1950's,"

This is a very serious topic and I'm grammar certainly not prefect -BUT COME ON!
Member Since: May 21, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 566
848. Skyepony (Mod)
Update on the waves

Extreme Weather in Spain on Tuesday, 04 March, 2014 at 03:39 (03:39 AM) UTC.

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Updated: Wednesday, 05 March, 2014 at 04:11 UTC
Description
Tidal waves of over 10 metres (32'6") off the north coast of Spain have caused widespread destruction and torrential rain in the south has forced emergency services to evacuate an entire village. Some 30 metres (97'6") of the pier off the port in Cudillero, some 40 kilometres west of Oviedo (Asturias) have been ripped up and washed away, flooding the yacht marina. Waves reached over the breakwater into the road along the seafront, forcing emergency services to cordon off the area to prevent members of the public from trying to get a closer look and putting their lives at risk. Gale-force winds of over 110 kilometres per hour (66mph) and waves of nine metres (29'3") in height have swept the coast of the province of A Coruna, in the north-western region of Galicia and pedestrians and cars have been banned from the seafront road. Further down the coast in the province of Lugo, the A Pedra de Burela lighthouse was literally snapped in two by freak waves, and the remains of it have been likened to the Leaning Tower of Pisa due to its precarious position.

Ports have been closed off all along the Basque Country's coastal provinces, Vizcaya and Guipuzcoa whilst rivers have burst their banks in Asturias and the Basque Country, flooding roads and homes. Catalunya has also suffered flooding, tidal waves, avalanches and snowdrifts. In total, 40 provinces in 15 of Spain's 17 regions are under weather warnings for extremely turbulent conditions, including the Canaries and Balearics and the west of Andalucia, the country's southernmost mainland region. A total of 28 people - the only occupants at the time - had to be evacuated from the small village of Santiago Pontones in the Cazorla Segura and Las Villas nature reserves in the province of Jaen after a river burst its banks. And in the village of Mogon, also in Jaen and close to the larger town of Villacarrillo, the river Aguascebas - a branch of the larger Guadalquivir - burst its banks and garages were flooded out. Other than Catalunya in the north, the east and south-east coasts have largely escaped the freak weather conditions, but the knock-on effect of high winds means the chill factor is lower than the air temperatures in these areas. Moderate to gale-force winds have also caused isolate forest fires in parts of the Valencia region. The wind, rain and high tides are not expected to settle down until Thursday, when spring is due to arrive early, according to the State meteorological agency, AEMET.
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Quoting 801. Tropicsweatherpr:


I can't imagine 2014 being as pathetic as the 2013 season was. Big question is homegrown quality systems this season?


I would love to see many systems forming near 14N 57W this year xD
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Quoting 840. rickdove:


I'm looking more for a formula (like Einstein theory of relativity). I've seen predictive modeling and scientist consensus show to be inaccurate in the past so i'm not quick to believe everything i read. Man does contribute to climate change, again the question is how much? We need an Einstein to come up with the formula.


E=MC^2+x-y^2?
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Good evening/afternoon. Nearly six inches (150mm) of rain in 24 hours in some parts of New Zealand (according to an Italian weather website), that's a lot.

Big storm another blow for quake-hit residents
Radio New Zealand News, updated at 10:12 pm on 5 March 2014
Christchurch's mayor says Tuesday's massive storm has been another disaster for people struggling with the aftermath of recent damaging earthquakes.
The storm exceeded forecasts in its intensity and has been upgraded to a 1-in-100-year event, Lianne Dalziel says. The mayor and Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownlee met with shocked and scared residents while out observing the damage on Wednesday.
Christchurch City Council land drainage operations manager Mike Gillooly told Radio New Zealand that rainfall over the 24-hour period had been the most intense since 1975. ...




Evacuations after Lyttelton cliff collapse
Published: 3:55PM Wednesday March 05, 2014 Source: ONE News

Edit: Video of the bad weather in New Zealand. Okay, waves are not that huge as they used to be in the Northern Atlantic, nevertheless causing severe problems for some boats:

Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 54 Comments: 5930
Quoting 839. NCstu:
Yea there's one that is supposed to go through downtown Miami, stall over Galveston, then come back east through Tampa on its way to Bermuda. And then it's gonna pull a Sandy and hit NYC. Nasty storm shaping up!


If that happens, I'll buy you a beer.
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Quoting 838. ricderr:
. This is not a complete answer to your question, but it will serve as a good start towards answering it, hopefully



nope...i appreciate the response


Are you able to be more specific in what it is that you are looking for as an answer? Are you looking for the ever elusive, Unifying Theory of Everything? :) I may need a week or two to answer that one for you. LOL
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Terrifying article on Antarctic collapse. Link
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Quoting 819. pcola57:


Hey yonzabam..
They've been working on a Venus probe mission..
Much to learn about greenhouse runaway..
From Space.com..

Inflatable Aircraft Could Cruise Venus Skies..
For complete article Click Image below..




The Russians have already landed probes on the surface of Venus. The probes did not last very long. We do have better technology and materials now than what we did during that time, but they would still have to very tough machines to survive on Venus for very long.
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Quoting 708. Naga5000:


Here is what has been published on the topic. Link Link Link Link Link Link Link

We are mostly responsible for the warming Link


I'm looking more for a formula (like Einstein theory of relativity). I've seen predictive modeling and scientist consensus show to be inaccurate in the past so i'm not quick to believe everything i read. Man does contribute to climate change, again the question is how much? We need an Einstein to come up with the formula.
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839. NCstu
Quoting 832. ricderr:
Lol at people trying to already call a bust 3-7 months out in advance.The funniest ish yet.


no way......check out the 120 day models...they're showing cat 5's already lined up tampa bound
Yea there's one that is supposed to go through downtown Miami, stall over Galveston, then come back east through Tampa on its way to Bermuda. And then it's gonna pull a Sandy and hit NYC. Nasty storm shaping up!
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. This is not a complete answer to your question, but it will serve as a good start towards answering it, hopefully



nope...i appreciate the response
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Quoting 798. ricderr:
The scientific evidence tells us that human activities are largely responsible for our warming climate



i'm not disputing this....but please explain how and what evidence...we're told that increased carbon...but is there a formula stating such and such an increase should be responsible for X degree in heat...thanx


You ask a very good question. Climate Sensitivity is as close to being a formula that I am aware of.

How can the science tell us that human activities have largely lead to the warming of our climate? This is largely done by a process of elimination and scientists must work within the known Laws of Physics, Chemistry and Thermodynamics. The AGWT is the best, scientific theory that science has to explain the observations being made. No other scientific (a required qualifier that is needed to be used) theory can even come close to explaining the observations being made than does the AGWT. Should this be an indication that the AGWT is already perfected? No. New evidence may require that the AGWT must be adjusted to better fit the observations being made. However there has been no new evidence presented that would require the AGWT to be adjusted, as of now. .... This is not a complete answer to your question, but it will serve as a good start towards answering it, hopefully.
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Was supposed to be 50F here in Middle TN now.... still only 33F... WHAT"S THE DEAL???? Why is this cold hanging on so long? Can I Speak with the Manager Please?!
Member Since: May 21, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 566
Quoting 832. ricderr:
Lol at people trying to already call a bust 3-7 months out in advance.The funniest ish yet.


no way......check out the 120 day models...they're showing cat 5's already lined up tampa bound


Tampa shields are already up deflecting them away:)
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 943
This hurricane season will obviously be a bust, since we will only have 29 named storms, 28 hurricanes, and 27 major hurricanes, with 26 US tropical landfalls, 25 US Hurricane Landfalls, and 24 US major hurricane landfalls, 23 of which will be cat 5s.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.