Record Cold in a Warming World

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:58 PM GMT on March 04, 2014

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An impressive blast of Arctic air has toppled more records for all-time March cold over the Eastern U.S., in the wake of the major snowstorm that brought 4 - 8" of snow from Missouri to Maryland. Fresh snow is very efficient at radiating heat to space, and the 3.8" of snow that fell in Baltimore on Monday helped drive the temperature down to 5°F on Monday night, tying the city's all-time March low temperature record set on March 4, 1873. The temperature eventually dipped down to 4°F Tuesday morning, breaking the March record. Atlantic City, NJ, which got 5.5" of snow on Monday, also set a new all-time cold record for the month of March on Monday night, when the temperature fell to 2°F. The previous all-time low for the month of March was 3°F set on March 4, 2009. Official records for the Atlantic City area date back to 1874.

At least five other cities have set or tied all-time March cold temperature records during the current cold wave:

Charlottesville, Virginia set an all-time March low of 1°F Tuesday morning (previous record: 7°F on March 4, 1943.)

Billings, Montana set an all-time March low of -21° on March 2, 2014 (previous record: -19°.)

Pierre, South Dakota set an all-time March low on both March 1 and March 2, dipping to -20° (previous record: -19°F on March 11, 1998.)

Flint, Michigan set an all-time March low of -16° on March 3 (previous record: -12°.)

Rockford, Illinois tied its all-time March record low of -11° on March 3.

At least five U.S. cities have set records for their coldest winter on record, as detailed by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest blog post. He has not yet compiled a list of cities that have set a record for their warmest winter on record during 2013 - 2014, but I know of at least two: Las Vegas, Nevada, and Tucson, Arizona.


Figure 1. Departure of surface temperature from average as diagnosed by the GFS model at 00 UTC March 4, 2014. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) allowed cold air to spill southwards out of the Arctic over the Eastern U.S., bringing temperatures up to 36°F (20°C) below average. Compensating warm air flowed northwards into the Arctic underneath a ridge of high pressure over Europe. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.

How can a planet that is warming experience record cold?
This week's impressive cold blast brings up the question: How can a planet undergoing "global warming" experience record cold? Well, it's a big planet, and the weather has naturally crazy extremes. We expect to see many locations experience all-time daily and monthly cold records each month. It's just that the number of these cold records will be outnumbered by all-time heat records, when averaged over the globe, and over decades. It is called Global Warming for good reason! A 2009 study led by Dr. Jerry Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO found that in the U.S., the ratio of the number of record daily highs to lows was near 1:1 in the 1960s and 1970s, but had increased to more than 2:1 during the decade of the 2000s, due to our warming climate. The ratio for the 2010’s was approximately 2.4-to-1 for daily records, for the four years 2010 - 2013, as explained in detail at Guy Walton's wunderblog. If "business as usual" emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide continue this century, this ratio of record highs to record lows is expected to increase to 20:1 by the year 2050, and 50:1 by 2100. So, even on planet experiencing extreme global warming, we will still see a few record low temperatures in the 22nd Century.


Figure 2. Ratio of record daily highs to record daily lows observed at about 1,800 weather stations in the 48 contiguous United States from January 1950 through September 2009. Each bar shows the proportion of record highs (red) to record lows (blue) for each decade. The 1960s and 1970s saw slightly more record daily lows than highs, but in the last 30 years record highs have increasingly predominated, with the ratio now about two-to-one for the 48 states as a whole. ©UCAR, graphic by Mike Shibao; data from a 2009 study led by Dr. Jerry Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO.

Two Years Ago: Summer in March
When we do break all-time heat records in the current warming climate, we should expect that some of these new records will crush the old records in phenomenal ways. That was the case during the astonishing U.S. record-breaking "Summer in March" heat wave just two years ago, in 2012. It was the warmest March on record for the contiguous U.S., 8.6°F above the 20th century average for March, and 0.5°F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months that have passed since the U.S. record began in 1895, only one month, January 2006, had a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012. Every state in the nation experienced a record warm daily temperature during March, and 25 states east of the Rockies had their warmest March on record. An additional 15 states had monthly temperatures ranking among their ten warmest. All-time March records were broken at 290 stations, with some stations breaking their all-time March record four times. There were 21 instances of the nighttime temperatures being as warm, or warmer, than the existing record daytime temperature for a given date. Four stations broke daily records by 30°F or more.


Figure 3. "This is the kind of sunset that you can expect to see in July, not in March. 77°F when I took this," said the caption on this wunderphoto taken on March 17, 2012 in Windom, Minnesota by wunderphotographer sally.

Jeff Masters

Apostle Islands Ice (walcek)
You drive on 3-ft. minimum thick ice for a couple miles out to these islands on frozen Lake Superior. (Saves on kayaking workout)
Apostle Islands Ice
Frozen Silence (RevMac)
No one else was out walking a very popular Nashville park on a frozen ice and snow storm day in early March.
Frozen Silence

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Quoting 230. Birthmark:

I have. I don't see anything that warrants a countdown clock.


ok
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15702
232. Skyepony (Mod)
GEOS-5 on the Thurs-Friday storm..

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Quoting 230. Birthmark:

I have. I don't see anything that warrants a countdown clock.


The only thing I can think of is a close brush with Asteroid Apophis.
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Quoting 222. ncstorm:


maybe you should read back..

I have. I don't see anything that warrants a countdown clock.
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Quoting 227. Gearsts:
Eric Blake ‏EricBlake12
The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season had only 3.25 hurricane days-- fewest since 1925! 1983 was the closest since that year with 3.50 dead

Levi Cowan ‏TropicalTidbits
EricBlake12 Amazing. The funny thing is, even with a potential El Nino, 2014 will likely beat 2013, just by virtue of chance.


Trust me, 2014 will be wayyyyyyy more interesting ;)

We only had like, one good looking hurricane last year?
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12z CMC precip map



12z GFS
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15702
Eric Blake EricBlake12
The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season had only 3.25 hurricane days-- fewest since 1925! 1983 was the closest since that year with 3.50 dead

Levi Cowan TropicalTidbits
EricBlake12 Amazing. The funny thing is, even with a potential El Nino, 2014 will likely beat 2013, just by virtue of chance.Link
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Quoting 201. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Wow this is crazy and that had to suck if you were eating dinner.

"All I said was the chicken was a little dry!"
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225. Skyepony (Mod)
Tornado in Arizona..

Description
A tornado touched down in Mesa over the weekend, something Valley weather experts said is a very rare occurrence for the area. The National Weather Service in Phoenix confirmed the tornado on Sunday, one day after strong thunderstorms made their way through eastern parts of the Valley. Debris that included down trees and an empty hot tub tossed over a brick wall confirmed rotating winds consistent with an EF0 strength tornado with speeds up to 85 mph. "The EF Scale, which became operational on February 1, 2007, is used to assign a tornado a 'rating' based on estimated wind speeds and related damage," explains the NWS website. While Arizona sees up to 10 tornadoes per year, almost all of them are in the northeastern part of the state. The last twister to hit the Valley was four years ago according to NWS experts. On average, the NWS told 3TV the Valley only sees one tornado every five to 10 years �" the strongest on record being an EF1 which carries winds up to 110 mph. The experts said straight-line winds from microburst activity during the monsoon season can produce damage just as severe as, or even more so than weak tornadoes. The strongest tornado in Arizona history, according to the NWS, was an EF3 (winds of 136-165 mph) twister in the Prescott area.
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Quoting 218. Birthmark:

What do you think is going to happen in January 2034 that warrants a countdown clock?





Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54479
Quoting 218. Birthmark:

What do you think is going to happen in January 2034 that warrants a countdown clock?


maybe you should read back..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15702
Ukmet also says thurs-friday will be stormy...
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Quoting 194. yonzabam:


I know they have to err on the safe side, but how many false alarms do you get for every tornado strike within, say, 5 miles?


Sirens don't go off unless we are in a Tornado Warning (funnel cloud detected or sighted in the area). And for OK, we don't get too many.

I don't recall how many times they have gone off for real since moving here. In the past 6 years, we have had 3 tornadoes (all relatively weak) pass through or on the outskirts of town.

One actually lifted up and passed directly over the building I worked (at that time) in. When it came back down, knocked over trees and business signs along a stretch of road. I was at home in the closet with little one and a small mattress above our heads. :D

We have been fortunate (not like Moore).
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Quoting 218. Birthmark:

What do you think is going to happen in January 2034 that warrants a countdown clock?
Quoting 218. Birthmark:

What do you think is going to happen in January 2034 that warrants a countdown clock?


Apophis maybe?
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Quoting 197. ncstorm:
maybe we should start a countdown here to January 2034 like we did for the Mayans calendar..

we have a lot of tech gurus on here that could create one..

What do you think is going to happen in January 2034 that warrants a countdown clock?
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well this model also says the LOW will cross central florida.......
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216. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 208. nrtiwlnvragn:
Anyone know the status of OSCAT other than what is on OSI SAF webpage ?

24-Feb-2014 OSCAT wind data dissemination is switched off since the input data is severly degraded.

I have looked & haven't found anything else. Really been missing it..
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Quoting 201. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Wow this is crazy and that had to suck if you were eating dinner.



Who's idea was it to open the restaurant in those conditions anyways?
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Quoting 168. ScottLincoln:

I don't "believe" in the theory of anthropogenic climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect any more than I "believe" in the laws of thermodynics, gravity, or motion. It's not about faith it's about evidence.

It is known by scientists with little doubt that:
1. Humans burn fossil fuels.
2. Burning fossil fuels produces CO2
3. Adding CO2 to the atmosphere raises its concentration if it is not removed at the same or greater rate
4. CO2 absorbs and re-emits longwave infrared radiation.
5. Increasing the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere thus raises the global temperature, all other forcings being equal
6. The record of past climate changes confirms this process

Theories become widely accepted because they provide the best explanation for observable phenomenon at the present time. If evidence changes, the predominant theories will change, and it will be because of evidence, not because of something I "believe."



To have faith in something is to trust in something because you perceive you have good reason to believe it.

If you didn't believe in AGW, then well, you simply wouldn't believe it, ie. you would be one of the people arguing against it everyday.

Common man, use common sense, to say you don't believe in something because there is evidence is exactly contrary to reality. If you didn't believe in any law of science, you probably would have already died by electrocution or walking off a cliff because you don't believe in gravity.


If you didn't believe in AGW like any other law of science, either your fooling yourself or your arguing against your own reasoning, either way it doesn't make sense. Based on from what I've seen, you do indeed believe in the laws of science and global warming.


I think what you mean to say is you don't put blind faith in anything, that is you believe things with what you have determined is sufficient evidence.


Then comes the the interesting thing about human thought, the reason why some people don't believe in AGW is because they are convinced there isn't enough evidence, it may not be true, but many are convinced it doesn't exist.


There exists another complex relationship between, evidence, perception, and belief. One can have knowledge and awareness that something is reasonable, that is aware there may be a good reason to believe it, but for a complex number of reasons, an individual may choose to not believe it. One can initially be convinced of something, or be given the option to believe something, but if given enough belief in something contrary to that initial belief, the new contrary belief is then perceived to be what is really true.

Assertion applies to both apparent truths and denial of apparent truths.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7615
Quoting 197. ncstorm:
maybe we should start a countdown here to January 2034 like we did for the Mayans calendar..

we have a lot of tech gurus on here that could create one..


This reminds me of the Unix Y2.038K problem. On January 19, 2038, the 32 bit Unix second timestamp counting elapsed seconds since January 1, 1970, will overflow and timestamps after that will be negative.

But don't worry, we have 24 years to fix it.. plenty of time :-)

Tick.
Tick.
Tick.
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212. Skyepony (Mod)
Avalanche in India on Tuesday, 04 March, 2014 at 10:21 (10:21 AM) UTC.
Description
Seventy-five people were rescued in north Kashmir's Kupwara district while efforts are on to rescue another 25 after an avalanche hit a mountain pass, police said on Tuesday. A senior police officer said an avalanche hit the Sadna Pass area on Kupwara-Tangdhar road in north Kashmir on Monday. "Nearly 100 people got trapped after the avalanche hit the road at Sadna Pass which connects Tangdhar (border town) with Kupwara. "We have so far rescued 75 people, while efforts are on to rescue the remaining 25 of those still trapped," the officer said.
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12z CMC

from hour 48 to hour 90 the CMC blasts eastern NC with rain









Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15702
Quoting 205. ncstorm:


yeah..but thats not visible enough..the public needs to be warned as 34% of Americans think its not important as other issues..the fear needs to be drill into them as what could..I mean will happen..



we don't really know whats to happen nc
but I can assure you something will happen
what remains to be seen

but when we see it
it will already be too late
to un-see it
that time will have come and gone
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54479
NavGem puts the Low right Into Tampa Bay..we need to watch for these changes next few days..
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Anyone know the status of OSCAT other than what is on OSI SAF webpage ?

24-Feb-2014 OSCAT wind data dissemination is switched off since the input data is severly degraded.
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207. Skyepony (Mod)
I posted a video in my blog comments earlier of these waves too. Some people in Portugal were injured not minding the surf.


Extreme Weather in Spain on Tuesday, 04 March, 2014 at 03:39 (03:39 AM) UTC.
Description
Alerts are being issued in 40 provinces across 15 regions for strong winds, heavy snowfall, avalanches and dangerous waves along the Atlantic coast of up to 10 metres, as a fierce storm batters northern and central area of Spain. The Spanish Meteorological Office has forecast that conditions should become calmer from Tuesday onward. Red severe weather warnings are in force in Cantabria, Galicia, the Basque Country and Asturias, with winds of between 120km/h and 130km/h, rough seas that will produce swells and colossal waves and snow drifts in the sierras of Galicia and Asturias. Aragon is under a yellow alert for snowfall, which could amount to 20cm in places, as well as avalanches in the Pyrenees. Castilla y Leon is under an orange warning due to snowfall and strong winds, which could reach 100km/h in La Rioja. In Catalonia, an orange warning is in place in Lleida for snow, winds and possible avalanches while Barcelona and Tarragona have yellow alerts for wind. On the coasts, alerts are in force in Melilla, Valencia, Murcia and the Balearics for gales and dangerous coastal swells, while wind warnings are in place in Castilla-La Mancha and Madrid. AEMET defines a red warning as representing extremely high risks to the population from severe and unusual meteorological phenomena, and orange as representing serious risks to the carrying out of daily activities.
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Quoting 198. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


iam already using a count down clock its called the Greenland effect


yeah..but thats not visible enough..the public needs to be warned as 34% of Americans think its not important as other issues..the fear needs to be drill into them as what could..I mean will happen..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15702
Quoting 203. Skyepony:

I put the outside view of that in my blog comments this morning.
Oh ok I know California gets some huge waves, so maybe this is not all that uncommon.
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203. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 201. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Wow this is crazy and that had to suck if you were eating dinner.


I put the outside view of that in my blog comments this morning.
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In a "warming" world, loolololololololol
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Wow this is crazy and that had to suck if you were eating dinner.

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#142 - KEEPEROFTHEGATE posted a graphic of the TLT from UAH. Too bad Christy and Spencer continue to deceive the public with their distortions. How much of that trend shown over the Arctic Ocean is the result of the TLT's known contamination from sea-ice, which in February was running at the low end of the historical range?

Arctic Sea-Ice extent
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Quoting 197. ncstorm:
maybe we should start a countdown here to January 2034 like we did for the Mayans calendar..

we have a lot of tech gurus on here that could create one..


iam already using a count down clock its called the Greenland effect
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54479
maybe we should start a countdown here to January 2034 like we did for the Mayans calendar..

we have a lot of tech gurus on here that could create one..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15702
still hot there pab
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54479
Guys, i hate the Carnival :/. Don't have nothing to watch on TV, just Carnival, that i hate. :/ damn #Brazil
At least we have 5 days of holidays
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Quoting 191. daddyjames:
Ah .. . the first signs of Spring in OK are here . . . the weekly testing of the Tornado sirens has resumed. :D


I know they have to err on the safe side, but how many false alarms do you get for every tornado strike within, say, 5 miles?
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Enjoying the Cold


By: Dr. Ricky Rood, 12:22 AM CST on March 04, 2014


The last month when the global mean monthly average was below the 20th century average was February 1985. If I count correctly, then it has been 29 years, or 348 months, since we, globally, have experienced a month colder than the 20th century average. If we look at years, rather than individual months, then this span of time extends back to 1976. I remember the fall and winter of 1976 - 1977 very well. I had moved to Tallahassee. It snowed. People raked it under the trees to take pictures. People left their sprinklers on to see ice. They destroyed their trees.
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Quoting 188. Grothar:


Hey, KEEP.

A little weak today. Just watching the fireworks. I'm so glad I don't have to argue anymore. The urge usually stops around 65 and and thankfully gets better.


ya you look after yourself
iam gonna need ya stick around for a while
arguments are good for nothing
but stopping progress

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54479
Ah .. . the first signs of Spring in OK are here . . . the weekly testing of the Tornado sirens has resumed. :D
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Changes to Remarks Section of the Vortex Data Message for Tropical Cyclones Effective May 15, 2014


Excerpt:

Effective May 15, 2014, the following format changes will take
place with the Vortex Data Message (VDM) reported from Department
of Defense (DOD) and NOAA aircraft conducting reconnaissance
missions for tropical cyclones:

1. The overall MAX WIND at flight level, and the MAX outbound
wind in the Remarks Section of the VDM will include a space
on either side of the "/", and to include "NM" after the
distance value.

The change in format will be consistent to the current Format for
the MAX flight level temperature if it’s not within 5 nm of the
flight level center in the Remarks Section.

Old Format
MAX FL WIND 73 KT 081/25 23:30:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 55 KT 083/14 01:36:00Z

New Format:
MAX FL WIND 73 KT 081 / 25 NM 23:30:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 55 KT 083 / 14 NM 01:36:00Z

2. A new remark for wind direction and speed at the surface will
be added to the Remarks Section.

Example:
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 265 / 12 KT
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Quoting 185. JohnLonergan:
Lol.
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Quoting 186. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
afternoon gro

how's the day treating ya so far


Hey, KEEP.

A little weak today. Just watching the fireworks. I'm so glad I don't have to argue anymore. The urge usually stops around 65 and and thankfully gets better.
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if ya seen it don't quote it
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54479
Quoting 177. Grothar:


How do you think they get "frosted" :)
afternoon gro

how's the day treating ya so far
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.