Record Cold in a Warming World

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:58 PM GMT on March 04, 2014

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An impressive blast of Arctic air has toppled more records for all-time March cold over the Eastern U.S., in the wake of the major snowstorm that brought 4 - 8" of snow from Missouri to Maryland. Fresh snow is very efficient at radiating heat to space, and the 3.8" of snow that fell in Baltimore on Monday helped drive the temperature down to 5°F on Monday night, tying the city's all-time March low temperature record set on March 4, 1873. The temperature eventually dipped down to 4°F Tuesday morning, breaking the March record. Atlantic City, NJ, which got 5.5" of snow on Monday, also set a new all-time cold record for the month of March on Monday night, when the temperature fell to 2°F. The previous all-time low for the month of March was 3°F set on March 4, 2009. Official records for the Atlantic City area date back to 1874.

At least five other cities have set or tied all-time March cold temperature records during the current cold wave:

Charlottesville, Virginia set an all-time March low of 1°F Tuesday morning (previous record: 7°F on March 4, 1943.)

Billings, Montana set an all-time March low of -21° on March 2, 2014 (previous record: -19°.)

Pierre, South Dakota set an all-time March low on both March 1 and March 2, dipping to -20° (previous record: -19°F on March 11, 1998.)

Flint, Michigan set an all-time March low of -16° on March 3 (previous record: -12°.)

Rockford, Illinois tied its all-time March record low of -11° on March 3.

At least five U.S. cities have set records for their coldest winter on record, as detailed by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest blog post. He has not yet compiled a list of cities that have set a record for their warmest winter on record during 2013 - 2014, but I know of at least two: Las Vegas, Nevada, and Tucson, Arizona.


Figure 1. Departure of surface temperature from average as diagnosed by the GFS model at 00 UTC March 4, 2014. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) allowed cold air to spill southwards out of the Arctic over the Eastern U.S., bringing temperatures up to 36°F (20°C) below average. Compensating warm air flowed northwards into the Arctic underneath a ridge of high pressure over Europe. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.

How can a planet that is warming experience record cold?
This week's impressive cold blast brings up the question: How can a planet undergoing "global warming" experience record cold? Well, it's a big planet, and the weather has naturally crazy extremes. We expect to see many locations experience all-time daily and monthly cold records each month. It's just that the number of these cold records will be outnumbered by all-time heat records, when averaged over the globe, and over decades. It is called Global Warming for good reason! A 2009 study led by Dr. Jerry Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO found that in the U.S., the ratio of the number of record daily highs to lows was near 1:1 in the 1960s and 1970s, but had increased to more than 2:1 during the decade of the 2000s, due to our warming climate. The ratio for the 2010’s was approximately 2.4-to-1 for daily records, for the four years 2010 - 2013, as explained in detail at Guy Walton's wunderblog. If "business as usual" emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide continue this century, this ratio of record highs to record lows is expected to increase to 20:1 by the year 2050, and 50:1 by 2100. So, even on planet experiencing extreme global warming, we will still see a few record low temperatures in the 22nd Century.


Figure 2. Ratio of record daily highs to record daily lows observed at about 1,800 weather stations in the 48 contiguous United States from January 1950 through September 2009. Each bar shows the proportion of record highs (red) to record lows (blue) for each decade. The 1960s and 1970s saw slightly more record daily lows than highs, but in the last 30 years record highs have increasingly predominated, with the ratio now about two-to-one for the 48 states as a whole. ©UCAR, graphic by Mike Shibao; data from a 2009 study led by Dr. Jerry Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO.

Two Years Ago: Summer in March
When we do break all-time heat records in the current warming climate, we should expect that some of these new records will crush the old records in phenomenal ways. That was the case during the astonishing U.S. record-breaking "Summer in March" heat wave just two years ago, in 2012. It was the warmest March on record for the contiguous U.S., 8.6°F above the 20th century average for March, and 0.5°F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months that have passed since the U.S. record began in 1895, only one month, January 2006, had a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012. Every state in the nation experienced a record warm daily temperature during March, and 25 states east of the Rockies had their warmest March on record. An additional 15 states had monthly temperatures ranking among their ten warmest. All-time March records were broken at 290 stations, with some stations breaking their all-time March record four times. There were 21 instances of the nighttime temperatures being as warm, or warmer, than the existing record daytime temperature for a given date. Four stations broke daily records by 30°F or more.


Figure 3. "This is the kind of sunset that you can expect to see in July, not in March. 77°F when I took this," said the caption on this wunderphoto taken on March 17, 2012 in Windom, Minnesota by wunderphotographer sally.

Jeff Masters

Apostle Islands Ice (walcek)
You drive on 3-ft. minimum thick ice for a couple miles out to these islands on frozen Lake Superior. (Saves on kayaking workout)
Apostle Islands Ice
Frozen Silence (RevMac)
No one else was out walking a very popular Nashville park on a frozen ice and snow storm day in early March.
Frozen Silence

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1133. VR46L
RAMMB Imagery

Loop Embedded


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1132. LargoFl
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1131. yoboi
Quoting 986. sar2401:

Drat! I forgot to mention that a malformed or just gigantic image has done that to me as well, and it got fixed when the offending post scrolled off my 50 posts at a time count. I've used Firefox but I must admit Chrome is faster, uses less memory, and just has a bunch of more useful features than Firefox.

Yes, I've read all the information and data at your link previously. As I said, I have no doubt the figures are right and the globe is warming. It's still not clear to me how much human activity or just the presence of increasing Co2 is the main contributor to this warming. I'm not all convinced humans, regardless of their scientific background, have the skill or precision to predict what the world will look like in 2100. I suspect that, in the next decade, it will become clear that AGW is a huge problem that will need lots of resources and skill to mitigate or that the whole thing is not such a big deal after all. Since I don't have the skill to predict the answer, I'm just hoping it will be the latter and not the former.




About 10%.........
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
1130. LargoFl
Quoting 1128. jrweatherman:


Looking at that lightening data, it sure appears that SW FL is going to get hit hard.
yeah the low actually comes in just north of tampa,and it seems..reading the nws warnings..yours is stronger worded..we'll see later on what verifies..oh oh..just heard my first boom of thunder here..
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1129. LargoFl
looks like the squall line comes to us late afternoon or this evening..wow...
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Quoting 1121. GeoffreyWPB:


Looking at that lightening data, it sure appears that SW FL is going to get hit hard.
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1127. LargoFl
Quoting 1116. jrweatherman:


So you think there will be a squall line behind this large area of rain?
oh yes,later today
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1126. LargoFl
Quoting 1121. GeoffreyWPB:
oh boy..its going to be booming here later today when that gets here huh
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Quoting 986. sar2401:

...I have no doubt the figures are right and the globe is warming. It's still not clear to me how much human activity or just the presence of increasing Co2 is the main contributor to this warming....

???
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1124. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Moody AFB, GA (KVAX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

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1123. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1120. rjsenterp:
You gotta love these "climate" scientists. If it gets warm it's global warming and if it gets cold it's global warming. Either way they get their government funding for their studies.


it is global warming and as a result we have cold air displacement occurring from kinked jet stream's to wandering polar vortex's

change one thing change everything

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1122. Skyepony (Mod)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38198
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You gotta love these "climate" scientists. If it gets warm it's global warming and if it gets cold it's global warming. Either way they get their government funding for their studies.
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1119. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1118. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1117. ARiot
Quoting 1113. CarlitosAtun:


The San Andreas fault system is a transform plate boundary. Wrong kind of boundary to put most of California in the ocean. Not gonna happen. Devastation? Yes, just a matter of time. The new Atlantis? No.


I agree. In fact. In terms of geologic time, I suspect the New Madrid and Mississippi River making a new gluf or inland sea would be more likely to give us a new "coastline".

It's hard to google either topic due to lots of conspiracy material and hyperbolic TV shows, but it's interesting to read articles from the geologic and education communities on the topic.

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Quoting 1114. LargoFl:
we'll have to see later on..what we see on radar is just the early stages..heavy stuff comes later today..


So you think there will be a squall line behind this large area of rain?
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1115. LargoFl
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1114. LargoFl
Quoting 1112. jrweatherman:


You can surely see the rotation going on with the radar.
While the rain shield is solid, the storms are not looking overly strong or severe yet. Looking at the lighting data I'm seeing a lot of rogue strikes out there but noting really concentrated that would indicate a severe storm.

As you mentioned, they might come together and things could get more interesting, I'm just wondering if the stronger stuff will be more to our East and South?
we'll have to see later on..what we see on radar is just the early stages..heavy stuff comes later today..
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Quoting 1108. LargoFl:
lol we are getting hit with a warm front-a cold front-and a strong low in the gulf..when they all meet later today..boom


You can surely see the rotation going on with the radar.
While the rain shield is solid, the storms are not looking overly strong or severe yet. Looking at the lighting data I'm seeing a lot of rogue strikes out there but noting really concentrated that would indicate a severe storm.

As you mentioned, they might come together and things could get more interesting, I'm just wondering if the stronger stuff will be more to our East and South?
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You guys need to check out the storm on the S.W. portion of the radar out in the GOM. It's on the same latitude as the Naples area. It's severe and shows rotation.

Need to look at the long range radar to see it.

On the local radar out of NBC in Fort Myers its very nasty with a black core (heaviest reflectivity of their radar).
Hopefully we won't see anything like that make it on shore later today.
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1110. LargoFl
ok so the real bad stuff hits me this evening maybe..
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1109. LargoFl

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A GULF LOW AND COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS
WILL EXPAND ONSHORE LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATER SPOUTS.
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1108. LargoFl
lol we are getting hit with a warm front-a cold front-and a strong low in the gulf..when they all meet later today..boom
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1107. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

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1106. LargoFl
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1105. LargoFl
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1104. LargoFl
Quoting 1100. icmoore:
Good morning Largo, Scott, and everybody. It looks like a little weather watching today for us in FL.
good morning,yes today is our day for the bad weather..light rain by me right now..the heavier stuff still offshore..
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good morning everyone
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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 AM CST THU MAR 06 2014

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN AND CNTRL FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE LWR 48 THROUGH FRI. SRN
STREAM LOW NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX SHOULD CONTINUE ESE INTO SRN MS BY
THIS EVE...BEFORE TURNING E INTO CNTRL GA EARLY FRI. THE LOW IS
PRECEDED BY SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
DEAMPLIFY IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
FL. SCTD TO NUMEROUS TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SVR...WILL CROSS
CNTRL AND SRN FL LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TNGT AS BOTH THE LEAD
DISTURBANCES AND THE MAIN TROUGH IMPACT THE FL PENINSULA.

ELSEWHERE...UPSTREAM SRN BRANCH TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE W CST
WILL REACH NRN CA/SRN ORE THIS AFTN AND THE NRN GRT BASIN EARLY
FRI...ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR SCTD...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS.

...FL TODAY/TNGT...
LATEST SFC DATA PLACE SFC LOW ATTENDANT TO ARKLATEX UPR SYSTEM OVER
THE N CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO ATTM...WITH STNRY FRONT EXTENDING ESE
FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND THE FL PENINSULA A LITTLE N OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT NWD INTO CNTRL FL LATER
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE GRADUAL DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW AND TO THE
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION/CONSOLIDATION OF ARKLATEX UPR TROUGH.

LOW-LVL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF LEAD UPR IMPULSES...AND
UPLIFT ALONG EXISTING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...HAVE SUPPORTED
A ROBUST SW-NE ORIENTED MCS OVER THE ERN GULF OVERNIGHT. THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY ESE THROUGH MIDDAY. EMBEDDED
FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS/LOW AMPLITUDE LEWPS AND BOWS MAY
BRING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND TO THE W CST OF FL NEAR TAMPA
BY MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM AROUND THAT TIME OR A BIT
LATER FARTHER S AND E OVER THE FL PENINSULA AS DIURNAL HEATING AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES REDISTRIBUTE LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS OVER THE REGION.

AMPLE /40 TO 60 KT/ 700-500 MB WSWLY FLOW WILL EXIST IN THE WARM
SECTOR TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS GIVEN PRESENCE OF
FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE /PW AROUND 1.75 INCHES/...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AT
LEAST MODEST SFC HEATING...AND MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG.
FARTHER N...A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LVL SHEAR/ISOLD TORNADO
POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP ALONG STNRY/WARM FRONT OVER THE CNTRL PART OF
THE PENINSULA...WHERE SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID/UPR LVL FLOW ALSO WILL
EXIST. BUT THE STRONGEST/MOST SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS MAY OCCUR OVER THE
SRN THIRD OF THE STATE...WHERE THE GREATEST BUOYANCY SHOULD DEVELOP.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...BOTH EMBEDDED IN LINE
SEGMENTS/LEWPS AND ALONG SEA-BREEZE AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES...OVERALL SETUP COULD YIELD A TORNADO OR TWO IN ADDITION
TO A FEW SWATHS OF DMGG WIND.

THE SVR THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST THIS AFTN/EARLY TNGT...AND
DIMINISH AS THE UPR SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
REFORMS NEWD OFF THE GA CST LATER TNGT/EARLY FRI.

..CORFIDI/MARSH.. 03/06/2014
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1100. icmoore
Good morning Largo, Scott, and everybody. It looks like a little weather watching today for us in FL.
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Good morning.

Sunrise in San Juan.

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1098. LargoFl
I guess Jedkins is getting his share of the storms already huh...
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1097. LargoFl
for south florida.................
THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TODAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE THEY COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A THREAT OF
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

TORNADOES: THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES TODAY ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS TODAY ACROSS ALL
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

WIND: STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE WINDS COULD BE IN
EXCESS OF 58 MILES PER HOUR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

HAIL: HAIL IS POSSIBLE TODAY. SOME LOCALIZED HAIL MAY EXCEED ONE
INCH.

FLOODING: URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA,
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.

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1096. LargoFl
Quoting 1095. StormTrackerScott:


I wouldn't be surprised to see those winds verify even without thunderstorms later this afternoon.
yes im afraid folks not paying attention today are in for a surprise huh..
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Quoting 1093. LargoFl:


I wouldn't be surprised to see those winds verify even without thunderstorms later this afternoon.
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1094. LargoFl
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES.
PEOPLE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD KEEP INFORMED ABOUT THE LATEST
WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS.

&&

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1093. LargoFl
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1092. LargoFl
tornado outlook..oh oh...................
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1091. LargoFl
wow...........
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Slight risk of severe weather for the Southern half of the state. I wouldn't dought this being updated.
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1089. LargoFl
stay alert and safe today folks..................
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A GULF LOW AND COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS
WILL EXPAND ONSHORE LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATER SPOUTS.
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Quoting 1085. StormTrackerScott:
Looks like 2" to 4" of rain are going to occur across C FL today. Also watchout for tornadoes as there is a developing low due west of Tampa right now. This low may strengthening to 1003 or 1004mb before coming ashore near Tampa this afternoon.





El-Nino deniers can't deny that there is something going on in the atmosphere that is telling us that El-Nino is coming.



Those are very strong storms (especially to the S.W. of the radar site) to be picked up so well that far out in the GOM.
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1087. LargoFl
Quoting 1085. StormTrackerScott:
Looks like 2" to 4" of rain are going to occur across C FL today. Also watchout for tornadoes as there is a developing low due west of Tampa right now. This low may strengthening to 1003 or 1004mb before coming ashore near Tampa this afternoon.



yes its been awhile since we have had a strong storm here around tampa bay..i hope folks listen to the warnings today
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Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 42 degrees with a wind chill of 36 and a light rain. We'll get about ten degrees warmer later on.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Slow-Poached Eggs with Shrimp and cheesy Grits, regular or whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, crepes filled with cream cheese and strawberries, topped with whipped cream, eggs and hash browns, Egg, Cheese and chorizo Quesadillas, Apple Pie Breakfast Cakes, bagels with cream cheese and jelly or lox, cinnamon streusel muffins, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
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Looks like 2" to 4" of rain are going to occur across C FL today. Also watchout for tornadoes as there is a developing low due west of Tampa right now. This low may strengthening to 1003 or 1004mb before coming ashore near Tampa this afternoon.





El-Nino deniers can't deny that there is something going on in the atmosphere that is telling us that El-Nino is coming.

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1084. LargoFl
well anyway..after this system moves away from florida we get some beautiful days ahead for us...
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1083. LargoFl
THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOWS A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET (40 TO 50
KNOT RANGE) OVER THE EASTERN GULF SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PENINSULA DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH EFFECTIVE
DEEP LAYERED SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 45 KNOTS. THIS SHEAR
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED STORMS AFFECTING THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. IN ADDITION A
TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES
INCREASING INTO THE 250-400 M2/S2 RANGE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE MAXIMIZED. RATHER COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES (-10 TO -12C RANGE) VIA MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
GIVEN ALL OF THIS WILL INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND/HAIL WORDING IN THE
MORNING ZONE PACKAGE.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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