Record Cold in a Warming World

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:58 PM GMT on March 04, 2014

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An impressive blast of Arctic air has toppled more records for all-time March cold over the Eastern U.S., in the wake of the major snowstorm that brought 4 - 8" of snow from Missouri to Maryland. Fresh snow is very efficient at radiating heat to space, and the 3.8" of snow that fell in Baltimore on Monday helped drive the temperature down to 5°F on Monday night, tying the city's all-time March low temperature record set on March 4, 1873. The temperature eventually dipped down to 4°F Tuesday morning, breaking the March record. Atlantic City, NJ, which got 5.5" of snow on Monday, also set a new all-time cold record for the month of March on Monday night, when the temperature fell to 2°F. The previous all-time low for the month of March was 3°F set on March 4, 2009. Official records for the Atlantic City area date back to 1874.

At least five other cities have set or tied all-time March cold temperature records during the current cold wave:

Charlottesville, Virginia set an all-time March low of 1°F Tuesday morning (previous record: 7°F on March 4, 1943.)

Billings, Montana set an all-time March low of -21° on March 2, 2014 (previous record: -19°.)

Pierre, South Dakota set an all-time March low on both March 1 and March 2, dipping to -20° (previous record: -19°F on March 11, 1998.)

Flint, Michigan set an all-time March low of -16° on March 3 (previous record: -12°.)

Rockford, Illinois tied its all-time March record low of -11° on March 3.

At least five U.S. cities have set records for their coldest winter on record, as detailed by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest blog post. He has not yet compiled a list of cities that have set a record for their warmest winter on record during 2013 - 2014, but I know of at least two: Las Vegas, Nevada, and Tucson, Arizona.


Figure 1. Departure of surface temperature from average as diagnosed by the GFS model at 00 UTC March 4, 2014. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) allowed cold air to spill southwards out of the Arctic over the Eastern U.S., bringing temperatures up to 36°F (20°C) below average. Compensating warm air flowed northwards into the Arctic underneath a ridge of high pressure over Europe. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.

How can a planet that is warming experience record cold?
This week's impressive cold blast brings up the question: How can a planet undergoing "global warming" experience record cold? Well, it's a big planet, and the weather has naturally crazy extremes. We expect to see many locations experience all-time daily and monthly cold records each month. It's just that the number of these cold records will be outnumbered by all-time heat records, when averaged over the globe, and over decades. It is called Global Warming for good reason! A 2009 study led by Dr. Jerry Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO found that in the U.S., the ratio of the number of record daily highs to lows was near 1:1 in the 1960s and 1970s, but had increased to more than 2:1 during the decade of the 2000s, due to our warming climate. The ratio for the 2010’s was approximately 2.4-to-1 for daily records, for the four years 2010 - 2013, as explained in detail at Guy Walton's wunderblog. If "business as usual" emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide continue this century, this ratio of record highs to record lows is expected to increase to 20:1 by the year 2050, and 50:1 by 2100. So, even on planet experiencing extreme global warming, we will still see a few record low temperatures in the 22nd Century.


Figure 2. Ratio of record daily highs to record daily lows observed at about 1,800 weather stations in the 48 contiguous United States from January 1950 through September 2009. Each bar shows the proportion of record highs (red) to record lows (blue) for each decade. The 1960s and 1970s saw slightly more record daily lows than highs, but in the last 30 years record highs have increasingly predominated, with the ratio now about two-to-one for the 48 states as a whole. ©UCAR, graphic by Mike Shibao; data from a 2009 study led by Dr. Jerry Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO.

Two Years Ago: Summer in March
When we do break all-time heat records in the current warming climate, we should expect that some of these new records will crush the old records in phenomenal ways. That was the case during the astonishing U.S. record-breaking "Summer in March" heat wave just two years ago, in 2012. It was the warmest March on record for the contiguous U.S., 8.6°F above the 20th century average for March, and 0.5°F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months that have passed since the U.S. record began in 1895, only one month, January 2006, had a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012. Every state in the nation experienced a record warm daily temperature during March, and 25 states east of the Rockies had their warmest March on record. An additional 15 states had monthly temperatures ranking among their ten warmest. All-time March records were broken at 290 stations, with some stations breaking their all-time March record four times. There were 21 instances of the nighttime temperatures being as warm, or warmer, than the existing record daytime temperature for a given date. Four stations broke daily records by 30°F or more.


Figure 3. "This is the kind of sunset that you can expect to see in July, not in March. 77°F when I took this," said the caption on this wunderphoto taken on March 17, 2012 in Windom, Minnesota by wunderphotographer sally.

Jeff Masters

Apostle Islands Ice (walcek)
You drive on 3-ft. minimum thick ice for a couple miles out to these islands on frozen Lake Superior. (Saves on kayaking workout)
Apostle Islands Ice
Frozen Silence (RevMac)
No one else was out walking a very popular Nashville park on a frozen ice and snow storm day in early March.
Frozen Silence

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Quoting 480. gulfbreeze:
You think a small bone at the base of the spinal column is all you need to prove evolution and where did we come from big bang?

Don't believe in the "big bang"?
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482. txjac
Quoting 475. Birthmark:

If a question is asked without rancor, "algore", or insinuation it will almost always be answered respectfully. People who come in "asking" about AGW, but at the same time claiming it is a hoax, probably aren't going to be treated as well. So, I would hope that the lesson that the newly joined learn is to ask questions if they really are interested in the answer, and to save the...um, nonsense for later, preferably some other blog.


Agree with what you say.

Just remember how I struggle/d with asking some questions. Didnt want to appear too "non-knowledgeable" and did not want to start an arguement.

Sometimes you knowledgeable, science focused, people dont realize how intimidating you can be ...lol
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Quoting 480. gulfbreeze:
You think a small bone at the base of the spinal column is all you need to prove evolution and where did we come from big bang?


Just because you can't understand it doesn't mean it didn't happen.
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Quoting 468. sar2401:

That would be "believe", but what part of evolution do you think can't be proven? For example, all humans have a coccyx. Can you tell me why we have it and what it used to be?
You think a small bone at the base of the spinal column is all you need to prove evolution and where did we come from big bang?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy, and the environment.



*** Ukraine Seen Building Support for U.S. Natural Gas Export

Haze Shrouds Malaysian Capital Amid Forest Fires and Drought

* Timber Thieves Threaten California's Redwood Giants :(



Live fast, die young strategy spawned Amazon tree boom

* Shale gas estimate in North West 'bigger' than previously thought (UK)

!!! New bird family discovered in Asia



* Cold and warm polar water mixing slows

Prequel outshines the original: Exceptional fossils of 160-million-year-old Doahugou biota

What makes flying snakes such gifted gliders?

*** Outbursts of anger linked to greater risk of heart attacks and strokes

!!! Passive smoking causes irreversible damage to children's arteries

* Range of electrical frequencies that help heal chronic wounds tested by researchers

Sea-level rise threatens UNESCO World Heritage sites

*** New data confirms Arctic ice trends: Ice-free season getting longer by five days per decade

Solar power: Making it less expensive and more efficient

* Oceanographer refutes claims that climate change is slowing pace of Gulf Stream

Relativity shakes a magnet: New principle for magnetic recording

GE to hike pro-environment energy research by $10 bn


* US report: Great Lakes levels rebounded in 2013

Alaska editorial roundup

West Virginia editorial roundup


Texas editorial roundup

Obama budget seeks cuts in Great Lakes cleanup program

Court rejects BP claim that Gulf oil spill settlement is unfair

* Ukraine crisis: Could US energy save Ukraine?

Ukraine Crisis Won't Affect Space Station, NASA Chief Says Are you sure?
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A really good blogger I know put out this blog earlier. He uses the word "expected" in the title, but don't worry, he does note the long range uncertainty:

Major Severe Weather Outbreak Expected in Mid-March



Quoting 465. nigel20:

The rain or the temps?

The rain.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well, that's just great (sarcasm).


Yeah, but the weekend looks great...so far. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17460
Quoting 471. sar2401:

Good evening, Nigel. It's 41 degrees here with just enough cold drizzle to make it miserable. No ice and none forecast, so it could be worse. Still and all, I'd rather be any place in the Caribbean right now than in Alabama.

Hey Sar! Yes, our visitors enjoy this time of year. The Caribbean is generally dry and warm. Great for outdoor adventures.

Current temp in Kingston is just about 77F, dew point is 71F and rel humidity is 83%.
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Quoting 466. txjac:


Look at is this way ...
Wonder how may people lurk on here, or are newly joined and checking out the "temp" in here. And they see others post questions that they might have and see them get kind of rude responses ...

This makes a person afraid to ask a question. Someone that "knows" something is going on ...and weighing the AGW theory and afraid to ask anything about it.

Deniers, sceptics shouldnt be made to feel inferior when asking questions ...

Granted there are those that ask over and over the same thing ...

If a question is asked without rancor, "algore", or insinuation it will almost always be answered respectfully. People who come in "asking" about AGW, but at the same time claiming it is a hoax, probably aren't going to be treated as well. So, I would hope that the lesson that the newly joined learn is to ask questions if they really are interested in the answer, and to save the...um, nonsense for later, preferably some other blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txjac:


Ignorant here but want to know ...

What is the difference between the lead acid battery pack and the lithium battery pack?

The lithium ion battery pack is made up from (about) 7100 Panasonic AA lithium ion penlight cells wired together in series. This produces the main power to run the Tesla's electric motor and drive-train. A lead acid battery is what you typically find under your hood. It provides power to start the motor and run the on-board computer and ignition system while it's being recharged by the alternator. It also runs all the 12 volt parts of the car while the motor is turned off.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17460
473. txjac
Quoting 471. sar2401:

Good evening, Nigel. It's 41 degrees here with just enough cold drizzle to make it miserable. No ice and none forecast, so it could be worse. Still and all, I'd rather be any place in the Caribbean right now than in Alabama.


That's how Houston was today ...just raw. Rainy, cold, windy, thunderstorms ....I loved it though!
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Quoting 464. gulfbreeze:
If you beleave in Science you can not beleave in evolution no facts to back it up!!

Have you looked? You might be surprised with what you find.
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Quoting nigel20:
Good evening guys! A bit of low to mid level moisture is across the western and central Caribbean. May allow for low to mid level convection tomorrow.


The polar trough may also erode the mid to upper ridge across the region.



Good evening, Nigel. It's 41 degrees here with just enough cold drizzle to make it miserable. No ice and none forecast, so it could be worse. Still and all, I'd rather be any place in the Caribbean right now than in Alabama.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17460
Quoting 462. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well, that's just great (sarcasm).


Look on the bright side; mid 60's and sunny for your weekend.
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469. txjac
Quoting 467. sar2401:
Rich
Well, rats. Chrome just ate my entire post. At any rate, the Tesla does indeed have a sealed lead acid battery. It's used to "start" the battery pack and run 12 volt accessories like the touch screen instrument panel and door locks. There are a number of posts at the Tesla Forum about the battery and some of the woes users are experiencing. As usual with Tesla, they aren't very forthcoming about information about the main lithium ion battery pack or the auxiliary 12 volt battery but Car & Driver tore it apart and confirmed it was a sealed lead acid battery.


Ignorant here but want to know ...

What is the difference between the lead acid battery pack and the lithium battery pack?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gulfbreeze:
If you beleave in Science you can not beleave in evolution no facts to back it up!!

That would be "believe", but what part of evolution do you think can't be proven? For example, all humans have a coccyx. Can you tell me why we have it and what it used to be?
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17460
Rich
Quoting Birthmark:

Moments before you left, I discovered that neither the Tesla Roadster nor the Tesla S use lead-acid batteries. I was pretty sure that that was the case.


Here is a link to the Tesla S. It also uses lithium-ion batteries. ("Model S is a rear wheel drive electric vehicle. The liquid-cooled powertrain includes the battery, motor, drive inverter, and gear box.
60 kWh microprocessor controlled, lithium-ion battery")



Well, rats. Chrome just ate my entire post. At any rate, the Tesla does indeed have a sealed lead acid battery. It's used to "start" the battery pack and run 12 volt accessories like the touch screen instrument panel and door locks. There are a number of posts at the Tesla Forum about the battery and some of the woes users are experiencing. As usual with Tesla, they aren't very forthcoming about information about the main lithium ion battery pack or the auxiliary 12 volt battery but Car & Driver tore it apart and confirmed it was a sealed lead acid battery.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17460
466. txjac
Quoting 460. Birthmark:

I have no problem with people that don't want to accept AGW theory. My problem is when they post their misperceptions, misundertandings, and bad information in a public forum. That wrong information is then read by people who haven't made up their minds or haven't the science and can't discriminate between solid science and bogus claims by blog "scientists." These are the people that I am addressing when I answer the denialist nonsense.

Denialists cannot be reached by mere fact in most cases. Whether they deny evolution, global warming, or relativity, they all discount the science or are unacquainted with it.


Look at is this way ...
Wonder how may people lurk on here, or are newly joined and checking out the "temp" in here. And they see others post questions that they might have and see them get kind of rude responses ...

This makes a person afraid to ask a question. Someone that "knows" something is going on ...and weighing the AGW theory and afraid to ask anything about it.

Deniers, sceptics shouldnt be made to feel inferior when asking questions ...

Granted there are those that ask over and over the same thing ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 462. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well, that's just great.


The rain or the temps?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 460. Birthmark:

I have no problem with people that don't want to accept AGW theory. My problem is when they post their misperceptions, misundertandings, and bad information in a public forum. That wrong information is then read by people who haven't made up their minds or haven't the science and can't discriminate between solid science and bogus claims by blog "scientists." These are the people that I am addressing when I answer the denialist nonsense.

Denialists cannot be reached by mere fact in most cases. Whether they deny evolution, global warming, or relativity, they all discount the science or are unacquainted with it.
If you beleave in Science you can not beleave in evolution no facts to back it up!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening guys! A bit of low to mid level moisture is across the western and central Caribbean. May allow for low to mid level convection tomorrow.


The polar trough may also erode the mid to upper ridge across the region.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, that's just great (sarcasm).

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 460. Birthmark:

I have no problem with people that don't want to accept AGW theory. My problem is when they post their misperceptions, misundertandings, and bad information in a public forum. That wrong information is then read by people who haven't made up their minds or haven't the science and can't discriminate between solid science and bogus claims by blog "scientists." These are the people that I am addressing when I answer the denialist nonsense.

Denialists cannot be reached by mere fact in most cases. Whether they deny evolution, global warming, or relativity, they all discount the science or are unacquainted with it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 452. Jedkins01:



As long as there are stubborn people, and people attempting to think you can convince stubborn people, well I suppose not.

I have no problem with people that don't want to accept AGW theory. My problem is when they post their misperceptions, misundertandings, and bad information in a public forum. That wrong information is then read by people who haven't made up their minds or haven't the science and can't discriminate between solid science and bogus claims by blog "scientists." These are the people that I am addressing when I answer the denialist nonsense.

Denialists cannot be reached by mere fact in most cases. Whether they deny evolution, global warming, or relativity, they all discount the science or are unacquainted with it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dr. Masters kills me no matter how cold it gets it's still about G/W!!!
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457. txjac
Quoting 456. Astrometeor:
OUT OF SCHOOL TOMORROW! YES!

This means we now have 1 day to make up at some point...oh well, I'm a senior. Doesn't affect me.


Yippee! Enjoy your last year! Fond memories to build on. Never forget where you came from.
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OUT OF SCHOOL TOMORROW! YES!

This means we now have 1 day to make up at some point...oh well, I'm a senior. Doesn't affect me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
455. etxwx
Future warming imperils Statue of Liberty
Mar 05, 2014
Excerpt: The sightseer of 4014 may have to pay a virtual visit to the Tower of London or Statue of Liberty, said a climate study Wednesday that warned of dramatic ocean encroachment on heritage sites.

While modern civilisation is fascinated by the pyramids of Egypt, Rome's Colosseum and the Parthenon in Greece, much of this inheritance as well as our own cultural legacy may be lost to sea-levels rising as much as 1.8 metres (six feet) due to global warming, researchers said.

Out of more than 700 listed UNESCO World Heritage sites, nearly 140 risk being flooded in 2,000 years' time, they projected in a study published in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

These also include the Sydney Opera House, Venice in Italy, Japan's Hiroshima Peace Memorial and Robben Island in South Africa where Nelson Mandela was imprisoned for 18 years.

The calculation is based on sea-level rises associated with temperatures three degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than pre-Industrial Revolution levels. The UN-targeted maximum rise is 2 C.
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Quoting 452. Jedkins01:



As long as there are stubborn people, and people attempting to think you can convince stubborn people, well I suppose not.


there was an NPR 'Hidden Brain' article about just that sort of thing today. Including possible techniques about how to actually change ones mind.

And yes, the snow is coming down now, right after the winter pileup cleared out of my yard
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Quoting 441. Patrap:
I go wit science, not Meet the Press or Rush, nor Watts, nor Spencer.

Dem NOAA and Climatologist run a purty tight ship.


Being wrong all the time is not a Badge o Honor.

Itsa jus being wrong a lot.

: P

Happy Mardi Gras.

USMC Band Performing at the Rex Bell tonight to close Carnival






I'm afraid that's precisely the problem, some seem to act as if it is a badge of honor:



I'm afraid that stupidity is something to be honored for to some...
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Quoting 412. sar2401:
Howdy, gang, I'm back. Did ya'll get the whole global warming thing worked out while I was gone? What? Sort of...not really...well, no...shucks. :-)



As long as there are stubborn people, and people attempting to think you can convince stubborn people, well I suppose not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 450. Climate175:
NC are your trees starting to bud yet ?


No not yet..we have the Azalea Festival here in April and thats our official start to spring when you see the flowers bloom around the city..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Quoting 447. ncstorm:


?..
NC are your trees starting to bud yet ?
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Let the warming begin!

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Quoting 446. Astrometeor:


I'm pretty sure that the snowplow-driver took aim at the reporter for fun.

I can only hope. I feel that if more reporters were buried, our media would improve...quickly. :)
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Quoting 445. sar2401:

I'm sort of hoping the first claim is true...with appropriate documentation, of course. :-)


?..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Quoting 444. hurricanes2018:
New Jersey Snow Plow Nearly Takes Out Reporter Steve Keeley

March 4, 2014

During Winter Storm Titan, one reporter got a much-needed reminder to keep a safe distance from snow plows in action. wow!!!


I'm pretty sure that the snowplow-driver took aim at the reporter for fun.
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Quoting ColoradoBob1:


Here's an example :

I claim I'm 16 year-old blonde girl with perky breasts .

A group of observers arrive with instruments to measure me. They measure and document I'm a 65 year old man with no upper teeth , an I'm half bald.

What is true ?

I am still a blonde.

That is an observed event.

I'm sort of hoping the first claim is true...with appropriate documentation, of course. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17460
New Jersey Snow Plow Nearly Takes Out Reporter Steve Keeley

March 4, 2014

During Winter Storm Titan, one reporter got a much-needed reminder to keep a safe distance from snow plows in action. wow!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 412. sar2401:
Howdy, gang, I'm back. Did ya'll get the whole global warming thing worked out while I was gone? What? Sort of...not really...well, no...shucks. :-)

Moments before you left, I discovered that neither the Tesla Roadster nor the Tesla S use lead-acid batteries. I was pretty sure that that was the case.

Quoting 66. sar2401:


From your link:
The battery pack in the Tesla Roadster...

This applies only to the roadster, which is now out of production. Only about 2600 people in the world had the $109,000 it took to buy one. The other Tesla vehicles have lead acid batteries. I own Tesla stock and know a little about what they make.

I don't think your reading comprehension holds up under scrutiny.

Here is a link to the Tesla S. It also uses lithium-ion batteries. ("Model S is a rear wheel drive electric vehicle. The liquid-cooled powertrain includes the battery, motor, drive inverter, and gear box.
60 kWh microprocessor controlled, lithium-ion battery")


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Quoting 440. ncstorm:


he has some great gifs out there..




here is a song for ya nc



Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
I go wit science, not Meet the Press or Rush, nor Watts, nor Spencer.

Dem NOAA and Climatologist run a purty tight ship.


Being wrong all the time is not a Badge o Honor.

Itsa jus being wrong a lot.

: P

Happy Mardi Gras.

USMC Band Performing at the Rex Bell tonight to close Carnival



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Quoting 438. yoboi:




that is funny....lol


he has some great gifs out there..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Seems like invoking and insulting Bill Nye somehow makes climate science wrong. Man you guys sure are sticking it to rational thought tonight. Enjoy.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3969
438. yoboi
Quoting 436. ncstorm:






that is funny....lol
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Quoting 424. Chucktown:


Should I believe Bill Nye instead? He spins this stuff so he can stay on Al Gore's payroll.


Bill Nye is not a climate scientist either. You should probably start by reading the science. You didn't answer my question, however, and bringing up Al Gore and money doesn't really add much to the credibility of your argument...which is what, anyways? I hope you aren't going down the tinfoil hat road of trying to claim monetary conspiracy across many different fields of physical science, academia, and every major scientific organization in the world.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3969
Quoting 424. Chucktown:


Should I believe Bill Nye instead? He spins this stuff so he can stay on Al Gore's payroll.


Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Quoting 433. PedleyCA:
What was your High temp Keeper? Made it to 68.6F here, forecast was 70F...
high today was 16 now 14.4 overnight low is 12 warmer than last few nights we have been below 0f
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
lol. sounds familiar. :)

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What was your High temp Keeper? Made it to 68.6F here, forecast was 70F...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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