New Blast of Cold Air Invades Midwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on February 26, 2014

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A frigid blast of Arctic air will bring some of the coldest late February temperatures seen in decades to the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. this week, with temperatures 15 - 30° below normal commonplace. The cold air isn't going anywhere fast, and will stick around through early next week. The cold blast is due to an extreme jet stream pattern we have seen before this winter--a sharp ridge of high pressure over California, and a large trough of low pressure over Eastern North America. This upper air pattern was described by the National Weather Service in Buffalo, New York on Tuesday as one that occurs less than once every 30 years in late February. The intense cold is already affecting the Upper Midwest this Wednesday morning. My vote for worst winter weather of the day goes to Central Minnesota at Alexandria, where a temperature of -8°F this morning combined with winds of 14 mph to make a wind chill of -28°. The winds are expected to increase to 25 - 30 mph Wednesday afternoon with higher gusts, creating blizzard conditions. In Chicago, the intense cold is expected to put the December - February average temperature for this winter below 19°, making the winter of 2013 - 2014 the 3rd coldest winter in the Windy City's history. Only the winters of 1978 - 1979 and 1903 - 1904 were colder.


Figure 1. Great Lake ice cover as seen on February 19, 2014, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. Ice cover on North America’s Great Lakes reached 88 percent in mid-February 2014—levels not observed since 1994. The average maximum ice extent since 1973 is just over 50 percent. It has surpassed 80 percent just five times in four decades. The lowest average ice extent occurred in 2002, when only 9.5 percent of the lakes froze. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Rain coming to California
Unlike previous versions of this extreme jet stream pattern, though, the ridge over the Western U.S. will not be very persistent. The ridge of high pressure over California, which brought numerous record high temperatures for the date on Tuesday, will get broken down by a weak low pressure system on Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday and Saturday, a more intense storm system will smash through the ridge, bringing moderate to heavy rain to much of drought-parched California. This storm will then track eastwards, potentially bringing a major snowstorm and destructive ice storm on Monday to Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average at 2 meters (6.6') as diagnosed by the GFS model at 00 UTC February 26, 2014. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) created a sharp kink in the jet stream (Figure 3), which allowed cold air to spill southwards out of the Arctic over the Eastern U.S. Compensating warm air flowed northwards into the Arctic underneath ridges of high pressure over Alaska and Europe. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.


Figure 3. Winds at a height where the pressure is 250 mb show the axis of the jet stream, seen here at 00 UTC February 26, 2014. A sharp trough of low pressure was present over the Eastern U.S., and unusually strong ridges of high pressure were over the Western U.S. and the North Atlantic. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.

Wanted: professionals willing to speak about climate change to local groups
If you are a professional or graduate student with a strong background in climate science, the world needs you to reach out to local audiences at schools, retirement homes, the Chamber of Commerce, etc., and share your expertise. A new initiative by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) and the United Nations Foundation called climatevoices.org is launching a Science Speakers Network this spring, with the goal of bringing scientists and their local communities together for real dialogue on climate science that speaks to citizens’ current and future well-being and responsibility as members of a community and democracy. Materials for context-setting presentations will be offered as will coaching regarding how to begin conversations about climate change with fellow citizens. If you are interested in volunteering for this network, please go to climatevoices.org and create a profile.  Profiles will “go public” when the full web site is launched in April. Once you create a profile, you will be kept up to date on Climate Voices progress including construction of the full web site, availability of presentation materials, webinar coaching, and plans for project launch. For any questions, please contact: Cindy Schmidt (UCAR), cschmidt@ucar.edu. I have my own set of slides I use for such talks that anyone is welcome to borrow from, available at http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2013/climatetalk.ppt.

Jeff Masters

Snowy Friday (Beaker)
After a major winter storm in the Twin Cities area, I spent Friday afternoon capturing a glimpse of the beauty left in the aftermath of the storm.
Snowy Friday

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739. nonblanche
5:21 AM GMT on February 28, 2014
Quoting 639. oldnewmex:
At 5:30 am, temperature at my house in Truckee, CA is 32 F.
Snowing, with about one inch on the ground, after raining well into the wee hours of the morning. Probably several more inches in the high country - my house sits at 5900 ft.


I know, right? We got maybe a quarter inch of rain overnight (I was just hauling my you-know-what into the main house to start breakfast about when you posted.) If you look at the pasture not-quite-edge-on, it's starting to look green. (Which is a little early, but the goats aren't complaining. It isn't so much that they're getting more than a nibble, as it is giving them something to DO.)

We're at just about 4000 feet here, no snow, just rain. It woke me up twice during the night, ahhhh.
Member Since: October 21, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 256
738. JEL
7:25 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Why are Lakes Michigan and Ontario relatively open while Superior, Huron, and Erie are practically frozen over? I base this on the photo in this article. It can't be east-west orientation (relative to wind, for example), because Michigan and Ontario are perpendicular (roughly), and Superior is a deep lake while Erie is relatively shallow.
Member Since: May 14, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
737. ScottLincoln
4:07 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 703. weathermanwannabe:
the single biggest short-term threat facing Man from climate issues is fresh water to drink and for agriculture.


I dont think you'd be the only way saying this as I've read many scientists discussing these issues. Seems very reasonable to me.

Quoting 703. weathermanwannabe:
Also remember that the effects of climate change are "regional" in nature. If we do get a "super" El Nino over the next year, we have to think beyond the impacts of a shortened Atlantic hurricane season; California might get a lot of rain recovery the next Winter as a result, but we could also see some brutal drought conditions in the mid-west for the spring and summer of 2015.

I think what's more accurate is to say that climate is global in nature, but what humans tend to feel (and be most impacted by) is weather and climate variability. Humans do not really notice climate changes, but we do notice longer term droughts/wet periods (climate variability) or short term floods, heat waves, and storms (weather). We won't necessarily notice sea level rise, but we will notice when that next storm comes that it causes more flooding than the same storm 20 years prior.

This is one area where we certainly need to do better. Unfortunately our understanding of teleconnections beyond ENSO are still weak. Forecasts for this recent winter across the CONUS are one example.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3193
736. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:05 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
735. mati
4:05 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 704. CuriousAboutClimate:
was all of Greenland green and warm, or just some areas along certain coasts?


just the coast lines and fjords

History of Greenland


Temperature Record of Greenland
Member Since: September 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 63
734. LargoFl
4:03 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 728. Dakster:


another Neutral or La Nina year? I don't understand the question.
yes could be another lack luster storm season like 2013..which is OK with me..we really dont need any hurricanes hitting the usa
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38541
733. LargoFl
4:01 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 730. wxmod:
Scientists liken Chinese smog to ‘nuclear winter’

"Air pollution in parts of China is now so extreme it could lead to conditions similar to a “nuclear winter,” scientists say. The smog that covers the country has become so thick it is impeding photosynthesis, potentially disrupting China’s food supply."

http://rt.com/news/chinese-smog-nuclear-winter-00 8/
one note on this..Milk prices in the USA will go up because China is buying so much of Our domestic milk production
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38541
732. GeorgiaStormz
4:01 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 721. LargoFl:
this winter just does NOT want to give up..its almost March!!


We good down here. Just a lil chilly... no winter precip :'(
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
731. LargoFl
4:00 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
our northern states here could use This energy This winter huh..................Currently geothermal power heats 89%[6] of the houses in Iceland and over 54% of the primary energy used in Iceland comes from geothermal sources. Geothermal power is used for many things in Iceland. 57.4% of the energy is used for space heat, 15.9% is used for electricity, and the remaining amount is used in many miscellaneous areas: swimming pools, fish farms, and greenhouses, for example.[6]
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38541
730. wxmod
4:00 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Scientists liken Chinese smog to ‘nuclear winter’

"Air pollution in parts of China is now so extreme it could lead to conditions similar to a “nuclear winter,” scientists say. The smog that covers the country has become so thick it is impeding photosynthesis, potentially disrupting China’s food supply."

http://rt.com/news/chinese-smog-nuclear-winter-00 8/
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1758
729. GeorgiaStormz
4:00 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
What a mess

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
728. Dakster
4:00 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 724. LargoFl:
what happens IF..no el-nino this year?


another Neutral or La Nina year? I don't understand the question.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10322
727. ScottLincoln
3:59 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 692. NCstu:
It was indisputably greenER due to the medieval warm period.

"Indisputably" is probably not the term you were looking for.
We do not have objective precipitation records, vegetation indeces, or objective temperature records back that far, so we can only infer through anecdotes and proxies. We also have to be careful to talk about the same parts of Greenland; many of our proxies are for the ice cap, not the warmer coastal areas, and the coastal areas tend to be where we only have anecdotes. "Greener" is also highly subjective and has little scientific meaning. I will assume that "more natural flora and higher crop suitability" is close to what you meant.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that Greenland was more supportive of some flora during the regional warming of the medieval warm period. Temperature reconstructions are not as conclusive; this one from NOAA shows temperatures in the southern portion of Greenland at comparable levels to today.




To my knowledge, almost all of the Norse settlements (and thus, almost all of our anecdotal evidence) was in southern Greenland.

Be careful not to be led astray by looking at proxies alone, however. Proxies respond to climate over several years to decades, and the current change in climate is moving at a rate that will not yet show up accurately. When you look at the instrumental record compared to the proxies, the picture becomes quite clear - Greenland is quickly becoming warmerwarming to the same level as the medieval warm period, and it is looking likely that we've already surpassed that with no end in sight.

"Indisputably greener" (warmer) is starting to look in dispute.


Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3193
726. SuperYooper
3:59 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 706. fire635:
In regards to the wind turbines... has anybody considered that disrupting the hurricane may be a bad thing? Hurricanes have been forming on earth for billions of years. I believe that they are necessary for earth's balance. Screwing with mother nature is not necessarily a good thing. I'm all for ways of manufacturing ways for us to protect ourselves from the storms, but not thinking eliminating the storm is the best way to go about that.


Just look up "Yellowstone mismanagement". Mankind has a penchant for knowing everything there is to know...and then being shown that we are a bunch of idiots.
Member Since: August 18, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 1602
725. Dakster
3:57 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 710. LargoFl:
I never knew..the USA wants to BUY Greenland?..did you??....................There are other theories as to how Greenland got its name. One theory is that the “green” in Greenland is actually a translation error. The word “grunt” actually means ground and it could be that Greenland was meant to be named Gruntland (or ground land).

The island has never been heavily populated. Much of it is covered by a sheet of ice. The only area that is not covered in ice is only clear because the air is so dry that ice cannot form. Many Native cultures have used the island as a hunting ground and several nations have used the island as a strategic launching point or a base during various conflicts and wars.

The island is currently owned by Denmark despite previous attempts by the United States to purchase the island.


Yep. and if you want to emigrate to Greenland, they are trying to make that easier, but for now I think it is the same as if you wanted to emigrate to Denmark. They need skilled and unskilled labor like crazy. The catch, you have to live on Greenland.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10322
724. LargoFl
3:57 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
what happens IF..no el-nino this year?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38541
723. Dakster
3:54 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 662. Torito:
Now, this is interesting.....


Computer simulations by Professor Mark Z. Jacobson have shown that offshore wind farms with thousands of wind turbines could have sapped the power of three real-life hurricanes, significantly decreasing their winds and accompanying storm surge, and possibly preventing billions of dollars in damages...

...So he went about developing the model further and simulating what might happen if a hurricane encountered an enormous wind farm stretching many miles offshore and along the coast. Amazingly, he found that the wind turbines could disrupt a hurricane enough to reduce peak wind speeds by up to 92 mph and decrease storm surge by up to 79 percent.


full article.


5 words.... This guy is a genius.


Would love to see a real world trial on this. Double bonus. Wind electricity and hurricane protection.

Somehow, when things sound too good to be true...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10322
722. StormTrackerScott
3:49 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 685. hydrus:
That is the beginning of a serious storm....If it does pan out...And it might not...Notice the 1034 high to the N.E...


Yeah not just a big rain event but a big wind event as well with a tight pressure gradient across N FL up to NC.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2956
721. LargoFl
3:48 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 719. GeorgiaStormz:
lucky




ECMWF shows a major swath of up to a foot of wintery stuff as well
this winter just does NOT want to give up..its almost March!!
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38541
720. LargoFl
3:47 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Interesting tropical forecast for 2014 here..with 4 possibilities..................Link
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38541
719. GeorgiaStormz
3:46 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
lucky




ECMWF shows a major swath of up to a foot of wintery stuff as well
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
718. LargoFl
3:42 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 716. NCstu:
there is a bit of an ecological crisis in Nicaragua as the Chinese are quickly making way in creating a new canal.
Link

Then it will be 3 continents!!!
hmmm north south and central..lol...geez
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38541
717. VR46L
3:39 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 706. fire635:
In regards to the wind turbines... has anybody considered that disrupting the hurricane may be a bad thing? Hurricanes have been forming on earth for billions of years. I believe that they are necessary for earth's balance. Screwing with mother nature is not necessarily a good thing. I'm all for ways of manufacturing ways for us to protect ourselves from the storms, but not thinking eliminating the storm is the best way to go about that.


I believe you are right too , with last year bust season we had very little rain in the summer . Hurricanes bring rain to mid latitudes that would not get as much rain with out them .(ok at times in the British Isles that would be a good thing but others not so much .) I hate the Idea of man ,interfering with nature like that , A step to far ....
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6901
716. NCstu
3:36 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 713. LargoFl:
its interesting to note..that once the panama canal was finished, the two continents..north and south america were indeed seperated.
there is a bit of an ecological crisis in Nicaragua as the Chinese are quickly making way in creating a new canal.
Link

Then it will be 3 continents!!!
Member Since: August 7, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 431
715. LargoFl
3:36 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
RAP model says rain for south florida Tomorrow...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38541
714. LargoFl
3:31 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38541
713. LargoFl
3:29 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 708. ncstorm:
Students in the US are taught there are 7 continents..Africa, Antarctica, Asia, Australia, Europe, North America, and South America.

Europe teaches that there are 6 continents combining North and South America and calling it America..thus Africa, America, Antarctica, Asia, Australia, and Europe



its interesting to note..that once the panama canal was finished, the two continents..north and south america were indeed seperated.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38541
712. VR46L
3:28 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
.

Correct image now
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6901
711. ncstorm
3:28 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 706. fire635:
In regards to the wind turbines... has anybody considered that disrupting the hurricane may be a bad thing? Hurricanes have been forming on earth for billions of years. I believe that they are necessary for earth's balance. Screwing with mother nature is not necessarily a good thing. I'm all for ways of manufacturing ways for us to protect ourselves from the storms, but not thinking eliminating the storm is the best way to go about that.


they are already doing it with the drones according to some bloggers on here..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15317
710. LargoFl
3:27 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
I never knew..the USA wants to BUY Greenland?..did you??....................There are other theories as to how Greenland got its name. One theory is that the “green” in Greenland is actually a translation error. The word “grunt” actually means ground and it could be that Greenland was meant to be named Gruntland (or ground land).

The island has never been heavily populated. Much of it is covered by a sheet of ice. The only area that is not covered in ice is only clear because the air is so dry that ice cannot form. Many Native cultures have used the island as a hunting ground and several nations have used the island as a strategic launching point or a base during various conflicts and wars.

The island is currently owned by Denmark despite previous attempts by the United States to purchase the island.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38541
709. NCstu
3:26 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Professor Jeffrey Park, from Yale University, responds:


It is easy to overinterpret terminology. The phrases “Medieval Warm Period,” “Little Ice Age,” and even “Greenland” have some history behind them. Near the year 1000AD the Norse Vikings established farming settlements in Greenland. Subsistence farming would have been impossible in Greenland in 1900AD, so this is clear evidence of unusual warmth in the North Atlantic region at that time. Similarly, anecdotal evidence of unusually cold winters in the early-modern period in Northern Europe (roughly during the Protestant Reformation) and of temporary advances of glaciers in the European Alps suggested a period of cooler climate there. How large were these climate excursions? How long did they last? How widespread were they? Because we don’t have eyewitnesses at all places in all centuries, scientists have tried to answer these questions with climate-proxy data.
Member Since: August 7, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 431
707. CaneFreeCR
3:26 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 673. yonzabam:


Electricity has to be used as it's made. It can't be 'stored'.

Check out several technologies to store the energy of electricity -- it's the energy you store. Batteries store electricity as chemical energy, pumped storage stores it as potential energy, as does compressed air storage. They're all in use to "store electricity" and when they're used the electricity becomes available at a different time than when it was generated.
Member Since: August 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 218
706. fire635
3:25 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
In regards to the wind turbines... has anybody considered that disrupting the hurricane may be a bad thing? Hurricanes have been forming on earth for billions of years. I believe that they are necessary for earth's balance. Screwing with mother nature is not necessarily a good thing. I'm all for ways of manufacturing ways for us to protect ourselves from the storms, but not thinking eliminating the storm is the best way to go about that.
Member Since: June 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 485
705. LargoFl
3:24 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
How Greenland got its Name...........Link
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38541
704. CuriousAboutClimate
3:22 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
was all of Greenland green and warm, or just some areas along certain coasts?
Member Since: January 28, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 205
703. weathermanwannabe
3:22 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Not the expert on GW or climate change but I always say the same mantra; the single biggest short-term threat facing Man from climate issues is fresh water to drink and for agriculture. To the degree that climate change impacts this issue (remember that 1 billion people on Earth get their water for drinking and agriculture from snow pack melt) we might be in some serious trouble at the moment.

Also remember that the effects of climate change are "regional" in nature. If we do get a "super" El Nino over the next year, we have to think beyond the impacts of a shortened Atlantic hurricane season; California might get a lot of rain recovery the next Winter as a result, but we could also see some brutal drought conditions in the mid-west for the spring and summer of 2015.

Just Sayin.....................
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702. LargoFl
3:22 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
6Z GFS for Monday......................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38541
701. jrweatherman
3:21 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 659. StormTrackerScott:
Good morning guys. A good crew is on this am. Picked up .91" since yesterday in Longwood.


Another disappointing rain event in Clearwater. I got about .25" at my house which seems to be about the normal for the Bay Area. I am getting more interested in what the models are saying around the 7th. Could be a big weather event for Florida.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 948
700. mati
3:19 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 692. NCstu:
It was indisputably greenER due to the medieval warm period.


maybe maybenot Groenland was named as such, according to the norse saga's, in the hope of attracting more settlers from Island

Link
Member Since: September 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 63
699. VR46L
3:17 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 690. ScottLincoln:

Hint...not because the continent was predominantly green.


When did Greenland become a continent ?I thought it was like India a sub continent .....
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698. LargoFl
3:16 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
905 AM EST THU FEB 27 2014

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DOMINATED BY RIDGING OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...FOLLOWED
DOWNSTREAM BY A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN CONTROL OF MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. A POTENT AND VERY COLD LOBE OF ENERGY
WITHIN THIS TROUGH IS PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH
H5 HEIGHTS OF 485-490DM AND 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -30. THAT IS COLD
FOR THIS LATE IN FEBRUARY...EVEN FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WE WILL
SEE JUST A QUICK GLANCING COOL DOWN THE NEXT DAY OR 2 BEFORE A QUICK
REBOUND IN TEMPS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOW ANALYZED OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA...THROUGH ALL OF OUR FORECAST ZONES. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED
NORTH AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH A COOLER AIRMASS
FILTERING SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S TO THE
NORTH OF I-4...RANGING TO THE 50S THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND IN THE
60S DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WILL SLOW THE DIURNAL TEMP RISE AND MAKE TODAY THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

OUR REGION RESIDES ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WITHIN A FAST WESTERLY FLOW CONTAINING SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES
STREAMING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLENTY OF LEFT OVER COLUMN
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW THESE IMPULSES ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE DIVERGENT
UPPER JET STRUCTURE TO PROVIDE A FEW PERIODS LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST IMPULSE THIS MORNING
WILL ALIGN WITH THIS JET TO PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...WITH THE SUBSEQUENT
FOLLOWING IMPULSES TRENDING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY
THE EVENING HOURS ALONG WITH THE MORE EFFICIENT UPPER DIVERGENCE.
THIS TREND IS SHOWN BY THE LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE
GLOBAL GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE. DUE TO THIS CONSENSUS AND SUPPORTING
SATELLITE TRENDS...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED TOWARD THIS
PHILOSOPHY. THE WEAKNESS OF EACH IMPULSE...MEANS THAT THEIR SYNOPTIC
INFLUENCES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW WELL EACH OF THE NWP
GUIDANCE MEMBERS INITIALIZE. WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY THROUGH THE
DAY TO FIND THOSE MEMBERS INITIALIZING THE CENTRAL GULF REGION THE
BEST...AND CONTINUE TO TREND TIMING/LOCATION OF THE SHOWER BATCHES
THROUGH THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

BY THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT...MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR
LIFT ALONG WITH THE BEST COLUMN MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL SHOW ANY LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES ENDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH WITH A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS BECOMING STRONGLY
ESTABLISHED FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. A FAVORABLE DRAINAGE FLOW
PATTERN LOOKS TO BRING ENOUGH COLD AIR SOUTHWARD THAT WE ARE
CONCERNED WITH TEMPS LATE NIGHT APPROACHING...OR EVEN DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF LEVY COUNTY. A FREEZE WATCH
IS CURRENTLY UP FOR LEVY COUNTY...AND WILL BE LOOKING CLOSELY AT THE
12Z GUIDANCE LATER THIS MORNING TO DETERMINE IF THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SUB-FREEZING TEMPS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AND UPGRADE TO A FREEZE
WARNING. IN TERMS OF FROST...THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IN THE MOS
GUIDANCE IS ALMOST TOO GREAT (5-7 DEGREES) TO SUPPORT MUCH FROST
FORMATION ACROSS LEVY COUNTY. HOWEVER...IF WE END UP DE-COUPLING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER LATE AT NIGHT...THEN THIS DIFFERENCE MAY END UP BEING
LESS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PATCHY FROST MAY ACTUALLY EXIST
SOUTH OF THE FREEZE WATCH ACROSS CITRUS/SUMTER AND HERNANDO COUNTIES
WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING...BUT THE DRY
AIR INTRUSION WILL BE LESS. WILL ALSO LOOK AT THIS POTENTIAL...AND
WILL LIKELY ADD FROST INTO THE GRIDS FURTHER SOUTH THAN IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE
LOWER/MID 50S DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES.

AFTER THE COOL START...FRIDAY WILL BEGIN A SEVERAL DAY STRETCH OF
FAIR WEATHER AND QUICKLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A GREAT LOOKING
WEEKEND IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER APPEARS IN STORE.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38541
697. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:14 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE 13-20132014
16:00 PM RET February 27 2014
===========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Subtropical Depression (997 hPa) located at 32.7S 37.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving south southwest at 7 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
45 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 165 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 240 NM in the southeastern quadrant. Gale force winds locally present in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: NIL

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS 33.2S 37.7E - 40 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
24 HRS 34.4S 37.8E - 40 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
48 HRS 40.6S 42.4E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
========================
The non tropical low pressure area that formed Monday night close to the south-eastern coasts of southern Africa has gained some tropical characteristics during the last 24 hours as deep convection has flared up close to the center and wrapped half the way around the center. This situation has been possible as the environmental shear is easing as the system is currently close to the upper level trough axis.

The system has hybrid characteristics with both latent heat release and baroclinic process involved for sustaining its strength. As usual for this kind of low, the cloud tops are rather warm and the system is over marginal sea surface temperatures in the 24-25C range. The current intensity is based on scatt data of this morning that is showing 30 knots winds over the whole circulation and even 30-35 knots in the southwestern quadrant.

Within the next few days, the system should continue to round the low to mid-level subtropical highs located to its southeast that tend to move eastwards. Friday night, the system should accelerate southwards and merge within a the mid-lat westerlies Saturday night.

This system should still be within a weak vertical wind shear environment for the next 24 hours. After that (Friday night), north to north-westerly shear is expected to strengthen. The system should therefore undergo its extratropical transition.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03
21:00 PM JST February 27 2014
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.0N 148.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 8.8N 148.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F
0:00 AM FST February 28 2014
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 15F (998 hPa) located at 15.7S 179.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. The depression is reported as moving north northeast at 7 knots.

Convection remains persistent along the southern flank in past 24 hours. Organization has not improved much in past 24 hours. System lies under an upper ridge, east of an upper trough in a moderate sheared environment. Outflow good to the south but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.2 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT=2.0, MET=2.0 and PT=2.0.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Global models agree on a northeast movement and then a southeast movement with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 15.8S 179.7W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS 16.8S 178.5W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS 20.3S 176.9W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45319
696. CuriousAboutClimate
3:13 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
happening now: climate change presentation/conference on a NAS/Royal Society Q&A put together recently


Link
Member Since: January 28, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 205
695. LargoFl
3:13 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 685. hydrus:
That is the beginning of a serious storm....If it does pan out...And it might not...Notice the 1034 high to the N.E...
this one we need to watch huh hydrus..whatever it becomes its got florida written all over it
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38541
694. sullivanweather
3:08 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 676. hydrus:
From my standpoint, the winters of the 1970,s were brutal. Even though I was living in South Florida, we made many trips to N.J. and New England. I was born in the mid 60,s, but my Father told me that winter in the early 60,s in New England and N.J.was much worse than the late 60,s. The 40,s and 50,s were bad virtually every single year. I realize that this is from 2 peoples standpoint, but many other folks I have spoken with agree on this.


The 40's and the 50's were bad virtually every year??

In what way? In terms of winter weather? If so then you were mistaken because the winters of 1948-49 through 1953-54 were six winters in a row of anomalous warmth still unrivaled in the temperature record.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
693. mati
3:08 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 678. hydrus:
If they can build such a wind farm, they most likely can find a way to store it. In fact, I bet it would be easier and much less costly to find ways to store the energy as it is to build a colossal wind farm.jmo


The idea i have seen is to convert the extra electricity to either hydrogen or methane and then to ship the methane via conventional gas pipelines to whomever needs it...

Link

Member Since: September 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 63
692. NCstu
3:02 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 690. ScottLincoln:

Hint...not because the continent was predominantly green.
It was indisputably greenER due to the medieval warm period.
Member Since: August 7, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 431
691. Michfan
2:58 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 673. yonzabam:


Electricity has to be used as it's made. It can't be 'stored'.


Hence why battery technology is the major long term barrier to most renewables becoming mainstream in the U.S.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1733
690. ScottLincoln
2:57 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 655. thelmores:
I wonder why Greenland was named Greenland?

Hint...not because the continent was predominantly green.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3193
689. Michfan
2:52 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Quoting 659. StormTrackerScott:
Good morning guys. A good crew is on this am. Picked up .91" since yesterday in Longwood.


.73" here in Waterford Lakes in East Orlando.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1733

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.