New Blast of Cold Air Invades Midwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on February 26, 2014

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A frigid blast of Arctic air will bring some of the coldest late February temperatures seen in decades to the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. this week, with temperatures 15 - 30° below normal commonplace. The cold air isn't going anywhere fast, and will stick around through early next week. The cold blast is due to an extreme jet stream pattern we have seen before this winter--a sharp ridge of high pressure over California, and a large trough of low pressure over Eastern North America. This upper air pattern was described by the National Weather Service in Buffalo, New York on Tuesday as one that occurs less than once every 30 years in late February. The intense cold is already affecting the Upper Midwest this Wednesday morning. My vote for worst winter weather of the day goes to Central Minnesota at Alexandria, where a temperature of -8°F this morning combined with winds of 14 mph to make a wind chill of -28°. The winds are expected to increase to 25 - 30 mph Wednesday afternoon with higher gusts, creating blizzard conditions. In Chicago, the intense cold is expected to put the December - February average temperature for this winter below 19°, making the winter of 2013 - 2014 the 3rd coldest winter in the Windy City's history. Only the winters of 1978 - 1979 and 1903 - 1904 were colder.


Figure 1. Great Lake ice cover as seen on February 19, 2014, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. Ice cover on North America’s Great Lakes reached 88 percent in mid-February 2014—levels not observed since 1994. The average maximum ice extent since 1973 is just over 50 percent. It has surpassed 80 percent just five times in four decades. The lowest average ice extent occurred in 2002, when only 9.5 percent of the lakes froze. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Rain coming to California
Unlike previous versions of this extreme jet stream pattern, though, the ridge over the Western U.S. will not be very persistent. The ridge of high pressure over California, which brought numerous record high temperatures for the date on Tuesday, will get broken down by a weak low pressure system on Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday and Saturday, a more intense storm system will smash through the ridge, bringing moderate to heavy rain to much of drought-parched California. This storm will then track eastwards, potentially bringing a major snowstorm and destructive ice storm on Monday to Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average at 2 meters (6.6') as diagnosed by the GFS model at 00 UTC February 26, 2014. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) created a sharp kink in the jet stream (Figure 3), which allowed cold air to spill southwards out of the Arctic over the Eastern U.S. Compensating warm air flowed northwards into the Arctic underneath ridges of high pressure over Alaska and Europe. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.


Figure 3. Winds at a height where the pressure is 250 mb show the axis of the jet stream, seen here at 00 UTC February 26, 2014. A sharp trough of low pressure was present over the Eastern U.S., and unusually strong ridges of high pressure were over the Western U.S. and the North Atlantic. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.

Wanted: professionals willing to speak about climate change to local groups
If you are a professional or graduate student with a strong background in climate science, the world needs you to reach out to local audiences at schools, retirement homes, the Chamber of Commerce, etc., and share your expertise. A new initiative by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) and the United Nations Foundation called climatevoices.org is launching a Science Speakers Network this spring, with the goal of bringing scientists and their local communities together for real dialogue on climate science that speaks to citizens’ current and future well-being and responsibility as members of a community and democracy. Materials for context-setting presentations will be offered as will coaching regarding how to begin conversations about climate change with fellow citizens. If you are interested in volunteering for this network, please go to climatevoices.org and create a profile.  Profiles will “go public” when the full web site is launched in April. Once you create a profile, you will be kept up to date on Climate Voices progress including construction of the full web site, availability of presentation materials, webinar coaching, and plans for project launch. For any questions, please contact: Cindy Schmidt (UCAR), cschmidt@ucar.edu. I have my own set of slides I use for such talks that anyone is welcome to borrow from, available at http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2013/climatetalk.ppt.

Jeff Masters

Snowy Friday (Beaker)
After a major winter storm in the Twin Cities area, I spent Friday afternoon capturing a glimpse of the beauty left in the aftermath of the storm.
Snowy Friday

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Quoting hydrus:
And that is if we get it 50% off...

Considering that we'd have to use three times the world's known supply of aggregates we should get something off just for cornering the market. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15176
Quoting 333. sar2401:

Yes, it's been discussed for several days. Other than the fact it will cost about 10 times our GDP for the next 10 years, it's a wonderful idea. :-)


So we can wall off Texas (basically) with a 1,000 Foot Wall - 150 Feet thick. But we can't build a wall along the US/Mexico border.

I know it is just a proposal. But did anyone really think about this, before suggesting it???
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Quoting Dakster:
KOTG - You got some explaining to do. What is up with this?

http://www.sunnyskyz.com/blog/130/A-Haunted-House -Snaps-Photos-At-The-Scariest-Moment-Of-The-Tour-A nd-I-Can-t-Stop-Laughing

Link

They're lying. Those are just pictures of normal Canadians looking at the long range forecast. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15176
Quoting 333. sar2401:

Yes, it's been discussed for several days. Other than the fact it will cost about 10 times our GDP for the next 10 years, it's a wonderful idea. :-)
And that is if we get it 50% off...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21199
Quoting presslord:
OK...while we're at itLink

Only 78,00 wind turbines somewhere off the coast of New Orleans? Heck, once we're done with the walls, we should get right on this.

Has something funny been put in the water these guys have been drinking? :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15176
Quoting 308. PedleyCA:
Whats your temp/humidity Dakster, it is a blistering 63.5 here/53% humidity.
It's better if post the humidity too. So, I know what you level of suffering is.
Hint: Keep a Towel in Car and place it over the top of the dash and steering wheel when you exit. Keeps the wheel cool and you have something to wipe sweat on.....


Gee. Thanks for rubbing that in. Yes, I have a towel and squeegee handy for my face.
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Quoting auburn:
Umm did anyone see this?SMH..


There’s a new proposal that calls for building several giants walls across tornado alley in the Midwest.

Proposed by physicist Rongjia Tao of Temple University, the walls would measure about 1,000 feet high and 150 feet wide. According to his research, it would stop the flow of air from the north and south, preventing tornadoes from forming. The concept stems from China, where mountain ranges from east to west help reduce tornadoes.

Meteorologist and professional storm chaser, Tony Laubach was skeptical about the logistics of this idea. On America’s Newsroom, he told Bill Hemmer, “Scientifically what he’s proposing, I don’t think is going to have an effect on a big enough scale to mitigate tornado dangers.”

Yes, it's been discussed for several days. Other than the fact it will cost about 10 times our GDP for the next 10 years, it's a wonderful idea. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15176
OK...while we're at itLink
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Quoting 321. jrweatherman:


I was joking. I agree with you.

I know. :)
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KOTG - You got some explaining to do. What is up with this?

http://www.sunnyskyz.com/blog/130/A-Haunted-House -Snaps-Photos-At-The-Scariest-Moment-Of-The-Tour-A nd-I-Can-t-Stop-Laughing

Link
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Quoting 326. auburn:
Umm did anyone see this?SMH..


There’s a new proposal that calls for building several giants walls across tornado alley in the Midwest.

Proposed by physicist Rongjia Tao of Temple University, the walls would measure about 1,000 feet high and 150 feet wide. According to his research, it would stop the flow of air from the north and south, preventing tornadoes from forming. The concept stems from China, where mountain ranges from east to west help reduce tornadoes.

Meteorologist and professional storm chaser, Tony Laubach was skeptical about the logistics of this idea. On America’s Newsroom, he told Bill Hemmer, “Scientifically what he’s proposing, I don’t think is going to have an effect on a big enough scale to mitigate tornado dangers.”
Someone posted this earlier...I think most will agree it would not work and probably make things worse. Especially for folks and structures within a thousand feet or more.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21199
326. auburn (Mod) 3:23 PM CST on February 26, 2014

I know a tunnel guy who can model it with a Oatmeal Round Can, and some straws.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128282
Published on Dec 13, 2013

The winter ice pack in the Arctic was once dominated by multi-year*, thick ice. Today, very little old ice remains. This animation shows maps of sea ice age from 1987 through the end of October 2013. Age class 1 means "first-year ice," which is ice that formed in the most recent winter. The oldest ice (9+) is ice that is more than 9 years old. Animation by NOAA climate.gov, based on research data provided by Mark Tschudi, CCAR, University of Colorado.

*Revised on 2/21/14. Caption originally said "old." Revised to "multi-year" to reduce ambiguity.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128282
326. auburn (Mod)
Umm did anyone see this?SMH..


There’s a new proposal that calls for building several giants walls across tornado alley in the Midwest.

Proposed by physicist Rongjia Tao of Temple University, the walls would measure about 1,000 feet high and 150 feet wide. According to his research, it would stop the flow of air from the north and south, preventing tornadoes from forming. The concept stems from China, where mountain ranges from east to west help reduce tornadoes.

Meteorologist and professional storm chaser, Tony Laubach was skeptical about the logistics of this idea. On America’s Newsroom, he told Bill Hemmer, “Scientifically what he’s proposing, I don’t think is going to have an effect on a big enough scale to mitigate tornado dangers.”
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Quoting 318. SkulDouggery:
Ok so this guy is a turn coat of whatever. And his opinion makes no difference. Not scientific - yada yada yada....
Why is he testifying in front of a senate committee?
Not trying to be cute (like so many here), but seriously why is the senate wasting the time on the floor?
Because that is there job, regardless who or what goes before the legislative chamber.. Besides , this sort of thing has happened for decades if not longer.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21199
Quoting 319. StormTrackerScott:


Yeah just heavy rain here except for one rouge lightning strike. Probably about an 1" here now with more on the way but not as heavy as the round that just moved thru.


According to the executive airport we picked up .11, but downtown is always a bit lower than the surrounding areas.

The lakes around here are very low. I was out in Metrowest for work yesterday ans saw reservoirs completely empty. Any little bit helps.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3378
Quoting 318. SkulDouggery:
Ok so this guy is a turn coat of whatever. And his opinion makes no difference. Not scientific - yada yada yada....
Why is he testifying in front of a senate committee?
Not trying to be cute (like so many here), but seriously why is the senate wasting the time on the floor?

Most likely, he was invited by those who wanted what he was going to say to be said.
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Quoting 192. jrweatherman:


Based on?


My intuition xD
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Quoting 314. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Politics, region, and money are all very opinionated topics. On the other hand, climate change (global warming) is a fact...most people who disagree either don't understand the concept completely or believe it's a scam by the government, in which case not much can be done to change their thinking...


I was joking. I agree with you.
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Quoting 318. SkulDouggery:
Ok so this guy is a turn coat of whatever. And his opinion makes no difference. Not scientific - yada yada yada....
Why is he testifying in front of a senate committee?
Not trying to be cute (like so many here), but seriously why is the senate wasting the time on the floor?


I've often wondered why politicians that are lawyers by trade engage in setting education policy.

In other words, your guess is as good as mine.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3378
Quoting 315. Naga5000:


Yeah it just moved through. Heavy rain, very little wind, no lightning. Boring. :)


Yeah just heavy rain here except for one rouge lightning strike. Probably about an 1" here now with more on the way but not as heavy as the round that just moved thru.
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Ok so this guy is a turn coat of whatever. And his opinion makes no difference. Not scientific - yada yada yada....
Why is he testifying in front of a senate committee?
Not trying to be cute (like so many here), but seriously why is the senate wasting the time on the floor?
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Quoting 307. SkulDouggery:


Not claiming this to be evidence


says it all right there

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Quoting SkulDouggery:
From Patrick Moore, Greenpeace co-founder:

"There is no scientific evidence that human activity is causing the planet to warm", according to Greenpeace co-founder Patrick Moore, who testified in front of a Senate committee on Tuesday.

Moore argued that the current argument that the burning of fossil fuels is driving global warming over the past century lacks scientific evidence. He added that the Earth is in an unusually cold period and some warming would be a good thing.

Full Story: (yes its from what the warmers call "Faux News")
http://nation.foxnews.com/sites/nation.foxnews.com /files/styles/story_624_300/public/feb26_ice.jpg


The correct link is here. Fox News incorrectly stated that Moore was a co-founder of Greenpeace. He was an early member and later president but he was not a co-founder. He left Greenpeace in 1986 "not of his own accord", by his own admission. His current organization, Greenspirit, has served as a paid public relations representative of both the nuclear and Indonesian forest industries. He has published no papers on climate and, again by his own admission, "is now more interested in politics than research". I'm no big fan of Greenpeace but I also wouldn't use Moore as any kind of authority on global warming.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15176
Quoting 302. StormTrackerScott:


Are you guys in Orlando getting any heavy rain?


Yeah it just moved through. Heavy rain, very little wind, no lightning. Boring. :)
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3378
Quoting 291. jrweatherman:


I think you should add Climate Change to your list:)

Politics, region, and money are all very opinionated topics. On the other hand, climate change (global warming) is a fact...most people who disagree either don't understand the concept completely or believe it's a scam by the government, in which case not much can be done to change their thinking...
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More like Pointless....
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5809
Not noteworthy at all. BTW Moore was not a "Greenpeace co-founder", although he was an early joiner when their main issue was nuclear testing.

Moore left Greenpeace in 1986, and since then has been mainly a PR consultant for logging and energy interests. It's difficult to see how his association with Greenpeace nearly 30 years ago is relevant. He's as much a "Greenpeace co-founder" as Monckton is a "Lord".
Quoting 307. SkulDouggery:


Not claiming this to be evidence - but noteworthy that he has changed his stance so?

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Quoting 293. SkulDouggery:
From Patrick Moore, Greenpeace co-founder:

"There is no scientific evidence that human activity is causing the planet to warm", according to Greenpeace co-founder Patrick Moore, who testified in front of a Senate committee on Tuesday.

Moore argued that the current argument that the burning of fossil fuels is driving global warming over the past century lacks scientific evidence. He added that the Earth is in an unusually cold period and some warming would be a good thing.

Full Story: (yes its from what the warmers call "Faux News")
http://nation.foxnews.com/sites/nation.foxnews.com /files/styles/story_624_300/public/feb26_ice.jpg
Whats your point.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21199
.89" so far in Longwood and it's still pouring however the rain should stop soon as we wait for round 2 to arrive.



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Quoting 293. SkulDouggery:
From Patrick Moore, Greenpeace co-founder:


Oh, no! A guy said something! I guess that overturns those thousands of scientific papers. I mean, how can mere science compete with rhetoric? lol
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Whats your temp/humidity Dakster, it is a blistering 63.5 here/53% humidity.
It's better if post the humidity too. So, I know what your level of suffering is.
Hint: Keep a Towel in Car and place it over the top of the dash and steering wheel when you exit. Keeps the wheel cool and you have something to wipe sweat on.....
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5809
Quoting 299. CuriousAboutClimate:


a statement without peer-reviewed references is what passes for evidence these days?


Not claiming this to be evidence - but noteworthy that he has changed his stance so?
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Quoting 299. CuriousAboutClimate:


a statement without peer-reviewed references is what passes for evidence these days?


Well, from someone who has nothing else it does.
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well I'm out till later..

more rain for my area..I really hope this pattern breaks as my area went through the previous summer like this..



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Quoting 301. ncstorm:




I really wish we would get some below average temps as far south as C & S FL as it has been very warm lately.

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Quoting 301. ncstorm:


still the cold nc still the cold
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53838
Quoting 278. Naga5000:


No, just pointing out that it's quite okay to be humorous about religion. I think some folks have too thin of skin and read into things a bit too much. Sometimes a joke is just a joke. Carry on, indeed.


Are you guys in Orlando getting any heavy rain?
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Quoting JNTenne:
Headline for the Day!
Can giant walls protect the USA from tornadoes?
Doyle Rice, USA TODAY 9:45 a.m. EST February 26, 2014
The walls would need to be about 1,000 feet high and 150 feet wide....
"If we build three east-west great walls in the American Midwest .... one in North Dakota, one along the border between Kansas and Oklahoma to the east, and the third one in south Texas and Louisiana, we will diminish the tornado threats in the Tornado Alley forever," according to physicist Rongjia Tao of Temple University.
Link

We talked about this a couple of days ago and I knew this would happen. Nutty scientist publishes paper about something that won't work and we can never afford to build. Now let's all make fun of scientists.

What happened to Temple's own internal review system that allowed this to get published?
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15176
Quoting 293. SkulDouggery:
From Patrick Moore, Greenpeace co-founder:

"There is no scientific evidence that human activity is causing the planet to warm", according to Greenpeace co-founder Patrick Moore, who testified in front of a Senate committee on Tuesday.

Moore argued that the current argument that the burning of fossil fuels is driving global warming over the past century lacks scientific evidence. He added that the Earth is in an unusually cold period and some warming would be a good thing.

Full Story: (yes its from what the warmers call "Faux News")
http://nation.foxnews.com/sites/nation.foxnews.com /files/styles/story_624_300/public/feb26_ice.jpg


a statement without peer-reviewed references is what passes for evidence these days?
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Quoting 291. jrweatherman:


I think you should add Climate Change to your list:)


Except for one other subject, what else is there to talk about then?
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Quoting 293. SkulDouggery:
From Patrick Moore, Greenpeace co-founder:

"There is no scientific evidence that human activity is causing the planet to warm", according to Greenpeace co-founder Patrick Moore, who testified in front of a Senate committee on Tuesday.

Moore argued that the current argument that the burning of fossil fuels is driving global warming over the past century lacks scientific evidence. He added that the Earth is in an unusually cold period and some warming would be a good thing.

Full Story: (yes its from what the warmers call "Faux News")
http://nation.foxnews.com/sites/nation.foxnews.com /files/styles/story_624_300/public/feb26_ice.jpg


Well, it's warming, so if it's not greenhouse gases, what's causing it? No good just saying the Earth goes through warm and cold periods. All change has a scientific mechanism driving it, such as Milankovitch cycles and solar activity. So, what's the mechanism?
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Quoting 136. Levi32:


There has been a dramatic slowing of the warming trend over the last 10-14 years. This is a fact. You did not show a trend for less than a 30-year period. Does this mean global warming is actually slowing? Nobody knows. A 30-year slowing would be more significant.

This is the "pause."



Levi, as you know, the GISTemp and HADCrut4 both use surface temperature data sets. I do not believe that you would think of the oceans as an insignificant part of our global climate. While it is true that the surface temperature observations have shown a reduced rate of increase over the past 10-14 years it is also true that the oceans have shown a greater rate of warming during this same time frame. If you are going to take a global stance it is not prudent to ignore the oceans when doing so. Would you agree?

What do the oceans tell us?


Image source
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Quoting 293. SkulDouggery:
From Patrick Moore, Greenpeace co-founder:

"There is no scientific evidence that human activity is causing the planet to warm", according to Greenpeace co-founder Patrick Moore, who testified in front of a Senate committee on Tuesday.

Moore argued that the current argument that the burning of fossil fuels is driving global warming over the past century lacks scientific evidence. He added that the Earth is in an unusually cold period and some warming would be a good thing.

Full Story: (yes its from what the warmers call "Faux News")
http://nation.foxnews.com/sites/nation.foxnews.com /files/styles/story_624_300/public/feb26_ice.jpg


Yawn, another person who isn't a climate scientist is testifying on something he shouldn't be. Maybe he should read the published research that every major scientific body in the world has agreed with. Link
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3378
Quoting 175. bjrabbit:


Your condolences aren't needed. But if they make you feel superior, super.

Given that explanations of these hocus theories are getting more twists in them than a pretzel...that tells me we are getting near the end. It is tantamount to when people buy stock in the stock market at the top of the bubble...their rationality is based totality on emotions, not reality.

Your fable bears no relation to reality.
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From Patrick Moore, Greenpeace co-founder:

"There is no scientific evidence that human activity is causing the planet to warm", according to Greenpeace co-founder Patrick Moore, who testified in front of a Senate committee on Tuesday.

Moore argued that the current argument that the burning of fossil fuels is driving global warming over the past century lacks scientific evidence. He added that the Earth is in an unusually cold period and some warming would be a good thing.

Full Story: (yes its from what the warmers call "Faux News")
http://nation.foxnews.com/sites/nation.foxnews.com /files/styles/story_624_300/public/feb26_ice.jpg
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hires nam 18z run hr 27

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53838
Quoting 285. TropicalAnalystwx13:

There are three things you're never supposed to talk about with others...

1) Don't talk about politics
2) Don't talk about religion
3) Don't talk about money

People in general are too serious these days.


I think you should add Climate Change to your list:)
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hires nam 18z run hr 18

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53838
hires nam 18z run hr 12

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53838

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.