New Blast of Cold Air Invades Midwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on February 26, 2014

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A frigid blast of Arctic air will bring some of the coldest late February temperatures seen in decades to the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. this week, with temperatures 15 - 30° below normal commonplace. The cold air isn't going anywhere fast, and will stick around through early next week. The cold blast is due to an extreme jet stream pattern we have seen before this winter--a sharp ridge of high pressure over California, and a large trough of low pressure over Eastern North America. This upper air pattern was described by the National Weather Service in Buffalo, New York on Tuesday as one that occurs less than once every 30 years in late February. The intense cold is already affecting the Upper Midwest this Wednesday morning. My vote for worst winter weather of the day goes to Central Minnesota at Alexandria, where a temperature of -8°F this morning combined with winds of 14 mph to make a wind chill of -28°. The winds are expected to increase to 25 - 30 mph Wednesday afternoon with higher gusts, creating blizzard conditions. In Chicago, the intense cold is expected to put the December - February average temperature for this winter below 19°, making the winter of 2013 - 2014 the 3rd coldest winter in the Windy City's history. Only the winters of 1978 - 1979 and 1903 - 1904 were colder.


Figure 1. Great Lake ice cover as seen on February 19, 2014, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. Ice cover on North America’s Great Lakes reached 88 percent in mid-February 2014—levels not observed since 1994. The average maximum ice extent since 1973 is just over 50 percent. It has surpassed 80 percent just five times in four decades. The lowest average ice extent occurred in 2002, when only 9.5 percent of the lakes froze. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Rain coming to California
Unlike previous versions of this extreme jet stream pattern, though, the ridge over the Western U.S. will not be very persistent. The ridge of high pressure over California, which brought numerous record high temperatures for the date on Tuesday, will get broken down by a weak low pressure system on Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday and Saturday, a more intense storm system will smash through the ridge, bringing moderate to heavy rain to much of drought-parched California. This storm will then track eastwards, potentially bringing a major snowstorm and destructive ice storm on Monday to Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average at 2 meters (6.6') as diagnosed by the GFS model at 00 UTC February 26, 2014. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) created a sharp kink in the jet stream (Figure 3), which allowed cold air to spill southwards out of the Arctic over the Eastern U.S. Compensating warm air flowed northwards into the Arctic underneath ridges of high pressure over Alaska and Europe. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.


Figure 3. Winds at a height where the pressure is 250 mb show the axis of the jet stream, seen here at 00 UTC February 26, 2014. A sharp trough of low pressure was present over the Eastern U.S., and unusually strong ridges of high pressure were over the Western U.S. and the North Atlantic. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.

Wanted: professionals willing to speak about climate change to local groups
If you are a professional or graduate student with a strong background in climate science, the world needs you to reach out to local audiences at schools, retirement homes, the Chamber of Commerce, etc., and share your expertise. A new initiative by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) and the United Nations Foundation called climatevoices.org is launching a Science Speakers Network this spring, with the goal of bringing scientists and their local communities together for real dialogue on climate science that speaks to citizens’ current and future well-being and responsibility as members of a community and democracy. Materials for context-setting presentations will be offered as will coaching regarding how to begin conversations about climate change with fellow citizens. If you are interested in volunteering for this network, please go to climatevoices.org and create a profile.  Profiles will “go public” when the full web site is launched in April. Once you create a profile, you will be kept up to date on Climate Voices progress including construction of the full web site, availability of presentation materials, webinar coaching, and plans for project launch. For any questions, please contact: Cindy Schmidt (UCAR), cschmidt@ucar.edu. I have my own set of slides I use for such talks that anyone is welcome to borrow from, available at http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2013/climatetalk.ppt.

Jeff Masters

Snowy Friday (Beaker)
After a major winter storm in the Twin Cities area, I spent Friday afternoon capturing a glimpse of the beauty left in the aftermath of the storm.
Snowy Friday

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Feb .26, 2014 1:30 pm ET

Northeast |


- A general area of light snow from West Virginia through Upstate New York to northern New England Thursday.

- Some lake-effect snow will be added into the general area of snow east of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

- Gusty winds across much of the region.

- Highs in the teens from central and northern New York to northern New England.

- Highs in the mid 30s to low 40s across much of the Middle Atlantic region.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bring a Poncho,Heavy Coat with Wind chills in the 30's.
Rain is very light where its reachin the ground.

Dry Air intrusion at 5-10mph

48F



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
mid-west down to -30F TONIGHT
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Each run makes it look stronger...

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<
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting 428. GTstormChaserCaleb:
1 TS/ 1 Hurricane/ 1 Category 5 Major Hurricane/ with a direct hit on Tampa Bay!...Ok now back to our regular scheduled broadcast "The Global Warming" brought to you by Wunderground. :D
Lol.
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Quoting 429. VR46L:


?????

Never heard of that acronym ,Heard of FBM though


:)

I like "Please Excuse My Dear Aunt Sally" (PEMDAS)
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My dad, who is a pilot, took this picture of some lenticular clouds a little ways south of Salt Lake City as he was flying a couple days ago:



Lenticulars are so cool!
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Been a cold Mardi Gras so far..as more Krewes roll tonight.

One a good friend from Detroit, a transplant.

She is riding in Krewe of Nyx.

Have a great ride tonight kitchengypsy.



Mardi Gras Parade Schedule 2014


WEDNESDAY, February 26th
Mystic Krewe of Druids
Uptown 6:30 p.m.

Mystic Krewe of Nyx
Uptown 7:00 p.m.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Noting:-
404. barbamz

Thanks for the info and link Barb.
This year it did not rain until Christmas day so April was our last shower.
I don't think much cleaning was necessary.
In my village they seem to keep the water the use to clean the olives in large depressions in the ground which are lined with plastic.
Eventually I assume the water evaporates and the residue they scatter on the fields.

Who's to know what really goes on? Be it China or Europe the main driving factor is always cash and the need to gain the maximum amount of it.

Interesting point this week I went to out local olive oil factory which turns over about $12 million dollars a year and I asked why they never answer the phone when I call them?
They replied that with so little turnover they cant afford to have a sectary!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
429. VR46L
Quoting 423. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


possible UFBM


?????

Never heard of that acronym ,Heard of FBM though


:)

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Quoting 425. Andrebrooks:
Link
2014 Hurricane Season Forecast still open.
1 TS/ 1 Hurricane/ 1 Category 5 Major Hurricane/ with a direct hit on Tampa Bay!...Ok now back to our regular scheduled broadcast "The Global Warming" brought to you by Wunderground. :D
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Quoting PlazaRed:
Compusary reading in an imaginary world:-

Link

So here is my annual moan or whinge:-
The locals are going through their annual burning of the olive branches, which I am told and know anyway just releases the bound up CO2 back into the atmosphere from which it came, an odourless, colourless gas which is undectable by the normal common or garden human.

So what is the thick grey clouds of gas which hang in the air here for months on end, while the locals burn their olive branches, it make me cough and my eyes water, its only smoke but as far as I can determine its toxic and of course nobody in Europe does anything about it.
Its all OK moaning about China a whole ocean away but the problem is on our own doorsteps as well.
If the corrupt coffee drinking authorities did an analysis on the smoke from western agriculture then they might find a few toxins in our air as well as what others are producing.
Oh by the way, hello Wxmond if you are out there?

Is there some way they can recycle all those trimmings? It was common to burn sawdust and wood chips here until they discovered the sawdust was good for part of the ingredients in oriented strand board and wood chips started being used as garden mulch.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13308
Quoting pablosyn:
The strongest tornado ever recorded in Brazil was a F4 tornado in Itu, São Paulo. 16 deaths.
In October 11th, 2000, the city of Viamão, metropolitan region of Porto Alegre was hit by a F3, one died and city was partially destroyed. That night was called of "the night of tornadoes". In May 25th, 2005, a F3 hit the city of Indaiatuba, with more then R$ 100 milions in damages.

http://www.metsul.com/secoes/visualiza.php?cod_su bsecao=28&cod_texto=309

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCZT0cxv5bo

I never knew Brazil had tornadoes until you started posting, Pablo. Are these rare or do they happen frequently? Is your spring and summer the most likely time for a tornado or do they happen all year?
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13308
Link
2014 Hurricane Season Forecast still open.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yoboi:





Stop hitting the enter button so often?????????

LOL. Each of those carriage returns uses up .0000000001 watt. We can all help save energy by doing away with paragraphs. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13308
Quoting 412. VR46L:


LMAO



I think I will wait on the NWS evaluation

:)


possible UFBM
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Subzero Temperature Days Reaching Near-Record Levels in Midwest

February 26, 2014

Some cities have reached record or near-record levels for the most subzero temperatures in a winter.
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#418

You should have a fine Crawfish harvest,so,

Maybe yous can do me a favor in return one day my friend.

Please,excuse me, I have Oysters to enjoy on the Veranda....


Have a nice evening.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Quoting 414. Patrap:


Isn't BP, Shell,and Exxon doing dat already ?

O wait, O snap?

As he fills his tank
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Quoting 417. Patrap:
How do we get off Oil?

My vote is for process of elimination as the economic and energy demands permit...Hopefully cleaning up the mess as we go.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20533
418. yoboi
Quoting 417. Patrap:
How do we get off Oil?






Stop hitting the enter button so often?????????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
How do we get off Oil?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
416. VR46L
SREF Mean from 15Z

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The strongest tornado ever recorded in Brazil was a F4 tornado in Itu, São Paulo. 16 deaths.
In October 11th, 2000, the city of Viamão, metropolitan region of Porto Alegre was hit by a F3, one died and city was partially destroyed. That night was called of "the night of tornadoes". In May 25th, 2005, a F3 hit the city of Indaiatuba, with more then R$ 100 milions in damages.

http://www.metsul.com/secoes/visualiza.php?cod_su bsecao=28&cod_texto=309

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCZT0cxv5bo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 409. NativeSun:
Hey Pat, lets put all the knowledge and energy into cleaning up the water and air pollution instead of climate change, maybe then we could actually accomplish something.


Isn't BP, Shell,and Exxon doing dat already ?

O wait, O snap?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Compusary reading in an imaginary world:-

Link

So here is my annual moan or whinge:-
The locals are going through their annual burning of the olive branches, which I am told and know anyway just releases the bound up CO2 back into the atmosphere from which it came, an odourless, colourless gas which is undectable by the normal common or garden human.

So what is the thick grey clouds of gas which hang in the air here for months on end, while the locals burn their olive branches, it make me cough and my eyes water, its only smoke but as far as I can determine its toxic and of course nobody in Europe does anything about it.
Its all OK moaning about China a whole ocean away but the problem is on our own doorsteps as well.
If the corrupt coffee drinking authorities did an analysis on the smoke from western agriculture then they might find a few toxins in our air as well as what others are producing.
Oh by the way, hello Wxmond if you are out there?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
412. VR46L
Quoting 402. tramp96:

If you are on FB Northeast Storm Center has an interesting graph about model performance this winter


LMAO



I think I will wait on the NWS evaluation

:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
European map for tomorrow (oh, already today):




Very last post today. As low "Zarah" - of course with a lot or rain for the British - is entering the stage I was reminded of a famous film song from Swedish Zarah Leander (in German though, and it's from 1937, uuuh), known for her dark voice: The wind has told me a song ...

Translating a bit of the lyrics:
But in the night I'm awake and my soul listens. Heart, do you hear the sound and swoosh in the palm trees? The wind has told me a song. It tells of happiness, unspeakably beautiful. It knows what my heart is missing, for whom it beats and glows. It knows for whom. Come, come, Oh. ...
In the evening I often was at the shore and hoping - what for? ....
-- Of course, for a stormy low, lol.

You see, the song really is weather related. But good night now!


Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 52 Comments: 5687
From CWG..
"For cold weather fans, winter 2013-2014 is the gift which keeps on giving."

As of today February 2014 is now ranked number 21 as one of the most snowiest on record and 12th snowiest at R.N.A with 19.3 inches.I now have 46 inches for the winter and depending on next week I'll see if I have to add.
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Hey Pat, lets put all the knowledge and energy into cleaning up the water and air pollution instead of climate change, maybe then we could actually accomplish something.
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Quoting 326. auburn:
Umm did anyone see this?SMH..


There’s a new proposal that calls for building several giants walls across tornado alley in the Midwest.

Proposed by physicist Rongjia Tao of Temple University, the walls would measure about 1,000 feet high and 150 feet wide. According to his research, it would stop the flow of air from the north and south, preventing tornadoes from forming. The concept stems from China, where mountain ranges from east to west help reduce tornadoes.

Meteorologist and professional storm chaser, Tony Laubach was skeptical about the logistics of this idea. On America’s Newsroom, he told Bill Hemmer, “Scientifically what he’s proposing, I don’t think is going to have an effect on a big enough scale to mitigate tornado dangers.”



I once thought mad scientists this mad were only found in movies, apparently I was wrong...
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407. VR46L
Quoting 402. tramp96:

If you are on FB Northeast Storm Center has an interesting graph about model performance this winter


Is that the guys who hit the headlines for hype ?

Share This Viral Hoax About the Weather or You’re Going to Die
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Old man winter is not done yet..
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Quoting 400. Michfan:


Same here in Orlando. I need my electric bill to be lower. I miss opening up the house windows.


Should be nice tomorrow and Friday for us. Then back to that time of year I like to think of as "pre-summer".
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3289
Quoting 390. PlazaRed:


As that chap Carl Sagan said:-

" Anything which is possible given an infinite amount of time, is inevitable!"


Ahh, Plaza, nice to see you. I've spared this link for you as it refers to southern Spain:

Algae and Olives
EuroNew Video, 24/02 17:04 CET
Futuris visited southern Spain, an area famous for its olive orchards, to find out what microalgae and olive oil have in common.
Around 50 litres of drinking water are needed to clean 100 kilos of olives before they can be milled into olive oil.
This causes the water to become full of pollutants and need long, complex and expensive treatment.
But now researchers want to clean up the water the green way, using microalgae as their secret weapon. ...
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 52 Comments: 5687
www.wunderground.com/climate

Wunderground's Climate Change Position

Based on the evidence, more than 97% of climate scientists have concluded that human-caused climate change is happening. Climate change is already causing significant impacts to people and ecosystems, and these impacts will grow much more severe in the coming years. We can choose to take economically sensible steps to lessen the damage of climate change, and the cost of inaction is much higher than the cost of action.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Quoting 394. VR46L:


Which ever one is closest to the euro ... Between 1- 5 inches in parts over 84 hrs

If you are on FB Northeast Storm Center has an interesting graph about model performance this winter
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Quoting 396. hydrus:
Wow, and I though my Beechcraft for 57 was old. They are collectable,or so I,ve heard.


mail.... check yours pls...
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
Quoting 304. StormTrackerScott:


I really wish we would get some below average temps as far south as C & S FL as it has been very warm lately.



Same here in Orlando. I need my electric bill to be lower. I miss opening up the house windows.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Wow, and I though my Beechcraft for 57 was old. They are collectable,or so I,ve heard.


lol i have my dad's old uniform from wwii

442 RCT
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Quoting 383. TroutMadness:
Ok all, i have a question. It maybe stupid. With all the burning of fuels extracted from the ground what is happening to the volume of gases produced?
Is it being absorbed by the bodies of water around the globe


This should help. Link
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3289
Quoting 391. PedleyCA:


Just that those have been around a very long time. I have one that my dad had in the 2nd WW.
Wow, and I though my Beechcraft for 57 was old. They are collectable,or so I,ve heard.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20533
Quoting bjrabbit:


Hang in their luvtogolf...most of the most vicious people on this blog who brag about science and papers and such most likely have never even passed Calculus I so all they are doing is parroting their beliefs through the work of others, who, if they got into the meat of the work, would not understand a dang thing.

Speaking of golf, luvtogolf, I have been in the golf car industry most of my life. Despite the best technology Detroit and Japan have to offer, nobody has made an electric car battery/charging system that can endure the day in day out punishment that an fossil fuel powered car can take. How do I know this? Well, these dolts test out a lot of their theories in the golf car/low speed vehicle industry.

Furthermore, ask you local country club what it costs to charge their electric cars...it's a lot. And, it all comes from fossil fuel powered plants...which, when I see an electric car on the road, it makes me laugh my butt off.

There are a couple of us sane ones who keep trying out here....Dr Masters is interesting but I am amused how he plans on going down with the AGW ship.

Bert


interesting point but fossil fuel powered cars have had over 100 years of development

Not all power plants are fossil fueled :)
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394. VR46L
Quoting 380. nwobilderburg:


So guys ...which is more reliable
GFS
GEM
or NAM

cause the gfs gives like half the rain of the other 2 models. Which is the most realistic


Which ever one is closest to the euro ... Between 1- 5 inches in parts over 84 hrs
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379. bjrabbit 10:59 PM GMT on February 26, 201

most of the most vicious people on this blog who brag about science and papers and such most likely have never even passed Calculus I

good evening Bert..Vicious.? Like grossly immoral.? Wicked.? Cruel.?.I havent seen that for almost a year. I do read posts here that are in poor taste, and from time to time blatantly ridiculous, but I would like you to show me a vicious post, so I can dismiss as such.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20533
Got 0.5" of snow today. Snow showers expected Saturday. Then a big storm with potentially lots of snow Sunday Night/Monday and even some ice. And I have heard rumors about next Friday. Old Man Winter is very grumpy this year.
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Quoting 376. hydrus:
I am not following you with the dating myself comment. Should I take a cold shower, or throw off my intense love for me..:)


Just that those have been around a very long time. I have one that my dad had in the 2nd WW.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
Quoting 377. hydrus:
Brazil is becoming more like the U.S. East Coast by the day..Add a cat-4 and were almost complete.


As that chap Carl Sagan said:-

" Anything which is possible given an infinite amount of time, is inevitable!"
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Quoting 383. TroutMadness:
Ok all, i have a question. It maybe stupid. With all the burning of fuels extracted from the ground what is happening to the volume of gases produced?
Is it being absorbed by the bodies of water around the globe


Not a stupid question at all. Currently the big absorber of CO2 are the oceans which when it mixes into the ocean water it becomes carbonic acid lowering the PH. Dunno about smaller bodies of water like ponds, lakes or seas that don't border the ocean though. Maybe someone more knowledgeable could answer that.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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