New Blast of Cold Air Invades Midwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on February 26, 2014

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A frigid blast of Arctic air will bring some of the coldest late February temperatures seen in decades to the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. this week, with temperatures 15 - 30° below normal commonplace. The cold air isn't going anywhere fast, and will stick around through early next week. The cold blast is due to an extreme jet stream pattern we have seen before this winter--a sharp ridge of high pressure over California, and a large trough of low pressure over Eastern North America. This upper air pattern was described by the National Weather Service in Buffalo, New York on Tuesday as one that occurs less than once every 30 years in late February. The intense cold is already affecting the Upper Midwest this Wednesday morning. My vote for worst winter weather of the day goes to Central Minnesota at Alexandria, where a temperature of -8°F this morning combined with winds of 14 mph to make a wind chill of -28°. The winds are expected to increase to 25 - 30 mph Wednesday afternoon with higher gusts, creating blizzard conditions. In Chicago, the intense cold is expected to put the December - February average temperature for this winter below 19°, making the winter of 2013 - 2014 the 3rd coldest winter in the Windy City's history. Only the winters of 1978 - 1979 and 1903 - 1904 were colder.


Figure 1. Great Lake ice cover as seen on February 19, 2014, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. Ice cover on North America’s Great Lakes reached 88 percent in mid-February 2014—levels not observed since 1994. The average maximum ice extent since 1973 is just over 50 percent. It has surpassed 80 percent just five times in four decades. The lowest average ice extent occurred in 2002, when only 9.5 percent of the lakes froze. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Rain coming to California
Unlike previous versions of this extreme jet stream pattern, though, the ridge over the Western U.S. will not be very persistent. The ridge of high pressure over California, which brought numerous record high temperatures for the date on Tuesday, will get broken down by a weak low pressure system on Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday and Saturday, a more intense storm system will smash through the ridge, bringing moderate to heavy rain to much of drought-parched California. This storm will then track eastwards, potentially bringing a major snowstorm and destructive ice storm on Monday to Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average at 2 meters (6.6') as diagnosed by the GFS model at 00 UTC February 26, 2014. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) created a sharp kink in the jet stream (Figure 3), which allowed cold air to spill southwards out of the Arctic over the Eastern U.S. Compensating warm air flowed northwards into the Arctic underneath ridges of high pressure over Alaska and Europe. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.


Figure 3. Winds at a height where the pressure is 250 mb show the axis of the jet stream, seen here at 00 UTC February 26, 2014. A sharp trough of low pressure was present over the Eastern U.S., and unusually strong ridges of high pressure were over the Western U.S. and the North Atlantic. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.

Wanted: professionals willing to speak about climate change to local groups
If you are a professional or graduate student with a strong background in climate science, the world needs you to reach out to local audiences at schools, retirement homes, the Chamber of Commerce, etc., and share your expertise. A new initiative by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) and the United Nations Foundation called climatevoices.org is launching a Science Speakers Network this spring, with the goal of bringing scientists and their local communities together for real dialogue on climate science that speaks to citizens’ current and future well-being and responsibility as members of a community and democracy. Materials for context-setting presentations will be offered as will coaching regarding how to begin conversations about climate change with fellow citizens. If you are interested in volunteering for this network, please go to climatevoices.org and create a profile.  Profiles will “go public” when the full web site is launched in April. Once you create a profile, you will be kept up to date on Climate Voices progress including construction of the full web site, availability of presentation materials, webinar coaching, and plans for project launch. For any questions, please contact: Cindy Schmidt (UCAR), cschmidt@ucar.edu. I have my own set of slides I use for such talks that anyone is welcome to borrow from, available at http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2013/climatetalk.ppt.

Jeff Masters

Snowy Friday (Beaker)
After a major winter storm in the Twin Cities area, I spent Friday afternoon capturing a glimpse of the beauty left in the aftermath of the storm.
Snowy Friday

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Quoting 640. JohnLonergan:



Climate Change: Evidence & Causes

Climate change is one of the defining issues of our time. It is now more certain than ever, based on many lines of evidence, that humans are changing Earth's climate. The atmosphere and oceans have warmed, accompanied by sea-level rise, a strong decline in Arctic sea ice, and other climate-related changes.

Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) absorb heat (infrared radiation) emitted from Earth's surface. Increases in the atmospheric concentrations of these gases cause Earth to warm by trapping more of this heat. Human activities - especially the burning of fossil fuels since the start of the Industrial Revolution - have increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations by about 40%, with more than half the increase occurring since 1970. Since 1900, the global average surface temperature has increased by about 0.8 C (1.4 F). This has been accompanied by warming of the ocean, a rise in sea level, a strong decline in Arctic sea ice, and many other associated climate effects. Much of this warming has occurred in the last four decades. Detailed analyses have shown that the warming during this period is mainly a result of the increased concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Continued emissions of these gases will cause further climate change, including substantial increases in global average surface temperature and important changes in regional climate. The magnitude and timing of these changes will depend on many factors, and slowdowns and accelerations in warming lasting a decade or more will continue to occur. However, long-term climate change over many decades will depend mainly on the total amount of CO2 and other greenhouse gases emitted as a result of human activities.

Project background

The Royal Society and the US National Academy of Sciences, with their similar missions to promote the use of science to benefit society and to inform critical policy debates, offer this new publication as a key reference document for decision makers, policy makers, educators, and other individuals seeking authoritative answers about the current state of climate change science. The publication makes clear what is well established, where consensus is growing, and where there is still uncertainty. It is written and reviewed by a UK-US team of leading climate scientists. It echoes and builds upon the long history of climate-related work from both national science academies, as well as the newest climate change assessment from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

This work was kindly supported by the Raymond and Beverly Sackler US-UK Scientific Forum.

Link to the report:
Climate Change Evidence & Causes(PDF)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550


Tornado symbol in SF
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Quoting 535. Naga5000:


Yay let's generalize and jump to conclusions about people.

It's like you just enjoy hearing yourselves complain.

Stay here awhile it sounds like they use common sense here and it's more relaxed. I can tell from this morning that you could use some of that,your BP was up.
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Here comes Storm #1 on stage left.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5685
Quoting 531. tramp96:

Good for you but I seriously doubt if 10% of the people over on Rood's blog try as hard as you do
but they sure can whine about it.


Yay let's generalize and jump to conclusions about people.

It's like you just enjoy hearing yourselves complain.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3252
534. beell
Quoting 533. TropicalAnalystwx13:

beell, I don't think I've ever asked before--are you a degreed meteorologist?


No. I got kicked out for being disagreeable.
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Quoting 529. beell:


Throw in the mid-level troughs and attendant vorticity which stretch out (the bottom drops out) and increase the "spin" (and ascent) as they crest the Rockies. End result is a steady supply of lee surface lows or surface troughs that play a critical role in tornadogenesis.

beell, I don't think I've ever asked before--are you a degreed meteorologist?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
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Quoting 516. AGWcreationists:
Well, let's see. I don't drive any more, I sold my car. My heat is from oil, but I have an efficiency in a remodeled home, so I don't use that much. The bus I ride uses diesel, but I am sharing the ride. The train I ride uses electricity generated by coal and nuclear power. The groceries I buy and carry home by transit in a backpack and duffle bag are delivered there by diesel-powered trucks. I do travel by air twice a year to visit my elderly parents.

So even someone with a small carbon footprint like me still needs oil.

And that will not change anytime soon that I can see.

Most Americans are energy hogs. And a lot of them bewail global warming as they have a big suburban home and have two vehicles and drive to work and drive all over suburbia on errands and take vacations that require flight.

So they are not serious if they truly believe in AGW. Actions speak a lot louder than words.

The irony is, I am a skeptic and I have a very small carbon footprint, mainly because I believe in conservation - those that can, should.

Good for you but I seriously doubt if 10% of the people over on Rood's blog try as hard as you do
but they sure can whine about it.
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Quoting 463. TroutMadness:


True, but racing fueled a lot of the development of the "infernal" :) combustion engine, lots of money wuz/is spent on refinement, way more i would think than electrical car systems
and Zug Island was once considered the "dirtiest square mile on the planet"


Good points too...but think about it...the physics and chemistry of the internal combustion engine and the variability of each in connection with...are what drove and allowed those improvements. For example..you can increase hp with very small changes..that changes the physics of the engine. For example, you can increase the hp of an engine by simply increasing the size of a bore....

Electric batteries and their charging systems and not quite as susceptible to such tweaking...otherwise, there would be some good ole' country boys who would have been able to UNDERSTAND and make those changes...however physics and chemistry won't let them.

Look...all of us on this blog want a cleaner planet. What we essentially disagree as to the how and why. My assertion is there is no clean solution outside of nuclear fusion because physics and chemistry won't allow it.

Bert

Bert
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529. beell
Quoting 518. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Wow significant drop off when you get West of Texas and points north. May explain how huge the Gulf of Mexico plays apart in tornadoes.


Throw in the mid-level troughs and attendant vorticity which stretch out (the bottom drops out) and increase the "spin" (and ascent) as they crest the Rockies. End result is a steady supply of lee surface lows or surface troughs that play a critical role in tornadogenesis.
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Quoting 497. beell:
Sea level rise has been rough on Nevada.
Yep. I heard tarpon are hitting south of Las Vegas.
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Sorry
Kept posting wrong image
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Quoting 508. TimSoCal:


Nope, but this incoming storm is very El Nino-ish. If we can get a couple more of these(not back-to-back, plz) before the dry season, we should be OK.
I was kiddin about the Nino thing. I know it is far from being here, but half a foot forecast in some areas of California is a great thing.
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img src="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif"


Uhhhh... That's a tornadic symbol
like 10 minutes from my family
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Quoting beell:
sar, the map is calculated in percent of time below freezing based on hourly metar observations.

Somewhere around 2,088 hrs total. You're up to about 3.5% based on what you have looked at.

Thanks, Beell, I think you and TA must have posted at the same time.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13138
Quoting 465. help4u:
Enjoy the rest of the day after all god made it for you.For god so loved the world he gave his only son that who so ever believes in him will not perish but have eternal life!Good news!

You need to capitalize God.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Look carefully--the map isn't showing the number of hours below-freezing, it's showing the percentage of time from December 1, 2013 to 8am this morning below-freezing. So...

24 hours in a day * 31 days in December = 744 hours
24 hours in a day * 31 days in January = 744 hours
24 hours in a day * 25 full days in February = 600 hours
And 9 hours (midnight to 8am) today

Total - 2,097 hours

Adding up the number of hours you've estimated your location has spent below freezing, that's 72/2097 which equals...0.034% of time below freezing (3.4/100th). It looks like you may have spent a few more hours than you think below freezing.

Right after I hit "Post Comment" I thought, "Dang, it's not total hours". :-) Yep, I got that wrong. As I said, I didn't look at my records going all the way back to December. I'll add them up and calculate the percentage. I still think we were above 10% but I understand the limitations of a shaded chart too. Thanks for the correction.

EDIT: I ran my weather station numbers through Excel and came out with 13% of the hours below freezing. Higher than 10% but close enough for a shaded map. I also had Excel parse the number of hours at or above 70. That came out to 9%. Compared to everyone up north, I really have nothing to complain about.
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Quoting JohnLonergan:
EDITORIAL in NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE

I emboldened the last two paragraphs which are the most important things to take from the editorial.

Scientist communicators

The slowdown in Earth's surface temperature increase has made headlines worldwide %u2014 but mainly to dismiss climate science. My bold



I think the problem is worse than that portrayed in the article. The response of many scientists was first to deny that a {pause, slowdown, flattening out, choose your poison} even happened. I've seen it here when Levi posted about the temperature flat lining and was immediately attacked because he didn't include ocean heat. That's not what he posted about, it was air temperature. That has been used in graphs for a long time to depict the warming of the globe. I'm absolutely certain that's what the public thinks about when it comes to global warming, not total heat. Same thing with the cold winter. People were falling all over themselves to prove it really wasn't cold. What climate scientist need to communicate is that a decrease in the rate of increase of global air temperature doesn't prove or disprove global warming. A cold winter doesn't prove or disprove global warming. It's the trend that matters. Climate predictions are never going to get every wiggle right when it comes to things like global air temperactures. If the pause continues long enough, we then have a different trend line. If the next 10 or so winters are this cold, something else is going on with climate other than what was predicted. None of the models are infallible but they are the best science we have now. Stop saying what happened didn't happen and concentrate on the point that the general trends are still intact.
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Quoting 511. sar2401:

There has to be some data error in that map. I'm is SE Alabama, where the color code shows 5-10 hours below freezing. We were below freezing for 53 hours during the January 29-30 snow and ice storm alone. We have had 7 nights below freezing in February that resulted in another 21 hours at or below freezing. I haven't even looked at earlier in January and into December, but my own unscientific "chatter factor" and dead plants tells me that we spent more than 10% of the time below freezing. The amount of time spent below freezing in the Sierra Nevada mountains also doesn't look right.

Look carefully--the map isn't showing the number of hours below-freezing, it's showing the percentage of time from December 1, 2013 to 8am this morning below-freezing. So...

24 hours in a day * 31 days in December = 744 hours
24 hours in a day * 31 days in January = 744 hours
24 hours in a day * 25 full days in February = 600 hours
And 9 hours (midnight to 8am) today

Total - 2,097 hours

Adding up the number of hours you've estimated your location has spent below freezing, that's 74/2097 which equals...0.035% of time below freezing (3.5/100th). It looks like you may have spent a few more hours than you think below freezing.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
Quoting 449. Grothar:
This map was compiled by NOAA designer John Nelson of 60 years of tornado activity in the US.

Wow significant drop off when you get West of Texas and points north. May explain how huge the Gulf of Mexico plays apart in tornadoes.
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517. beell
sar, the map is calculated in percent of time below freezing based on hourly metar observations.

Somewhere around 2,088 hrs total. You're up to about 3.5% based on what you have looked at.
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Quoting 417. Patrap:
How do we get off Oil?

Well, let's see. I don't drive any more, I sold my car. My heat is from oil, but I have an efficiency in a remodeled home, so I don't use that much. The bus I ride uses diesel, but I am sharing the ride. The train I ride uses electricity generated by coal and nuclear power. The groceries I buy and carry home by transit in a backpack and duffle bag are delivered there by diesel-powered trucks. I do travel by air twice a year to visit my elderly parents.

So even someone with a small carbon footprint like me still needs oil.

And that will not change anytime soon that I can see.

Most Americans are energy hogs. And a lot of them bewail global warming as they have a big suburban home and have two vehicles and drive to work and drive all over suburbia on errands and take vacations that require flight.

So they are not serious if they truly believe in AGW. Actions speak a lot louder than words.

The irony is, I am a skeptic and I have a very small carbon footprint, mainly because I believe in conservation - those that can, should.
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Quoting 511. sar2401:

There has to be some data error in that map. I'm is SE Alabama, where the color code shows 5-10 hours below freezing. We were below freezing for 53 hours during the January 29-30 snow and ice storm alone. We have had 7 nights below freezing in February that resulted in another 21 hours at or below freezing. I haven't even looked at earlier in January and into December, but my own unscientific "chatter factor" and dead plants tells me that we spent more than 10% of the time below freezing. The amount of time spent below freezing in the Sierra Nevada mountains also doesn't look right.


We had more than 5 to 10 hours below freezing during a single cold outbreak in Tallahassee. We had a high of 34 and it was only above freezing for 3 hours, we spent over 24 hours below freezing during that 2 day period.
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Quoting 510. Gearsts:
Levi any chance for and El nino video from you? ;)


Soon :)
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For West Palm Beach...Rain tomorrow, then back to comfortable...

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is a map of the amount of time (in %) that the United States has spent below freezing since December 1, 2013. Almost all of the lower 48 has spent at least 5/100th of that time below freezing. I've spent 1/10th of the time below 32F. Northern Minnesota has spent 95/100th of their time below 32F. Most of Florida, the extreme Gulf Coast, southeastern Texas, and the southern coasts of Nevada and California have been "spared".


There has to be some data error in that map. I'm is SE Alabama, where the color code shows 5-10 hours below freezing. We were below freezing for 53 hours during the January 29-30 snow and ice storm alone. We have had 7 nights below freezing in February that resulted in another 21 hours at or below freezing. I haven't even looked at earlier in January and into December, but my own unscientific "chatter factor" and dead plants tells me that we spent more than 10% of the time below freezing. The amount of time spent below freezing in the Sierra Nevada mountains also doesn't look right.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13138
Quoting 507. Levi32:


Interesting. Either they took that colorbar from Ryan Maue or the other way around.
Levi any chance for and El nino video from you? ;)
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509. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03
9:00 AM JST February 27 2014
====================================

Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.5N 149.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 9.1N 147.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
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Quoting 485. hydrus:
Holy fricken moly..Cal is getting some big numbers...Is Nino here already.?


Nope, but this incoming storm is very El Nino-ish. If we can get a couple more of these(not back-to-back, plz) before the dry season, we should be OK.
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Quoting 495. TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is a map of the amount of time (in %) that the United States has spent below freezing since December 1, 2013. Almost all of the lower 48 has spent at least 5/100th of that time below freezing. I've spent 1/10th of the time below 32F. Northern Minnesota has spent 95/100th of their time below 32F. Only [a good portion of] Florida, the extreme Gulf Coast, southeastern Texas, southwestern California, and southern Nevada have been "spared".

Edited for beell.



Interesting. Either they took that colorbar from Ryan Maue or the other way around.
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Quoting 504. Gearsts:
Looks like is building and eyewall already. RI?!!

The McTavish numbers are off the charts.
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Quoting 497. beell:
Sea level rise has been rough on Nevada.

;)
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Quoting 492. MississippiWx:


Omg. It's the polar vortex. Run fer yer lives!

Looks like is building and eyewall already. RI?!!
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Quoting 495. TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is a map of the amount of time (in %) that the United States has spent below freezing since December 1, 2013. Almost all of the lower 48 has spent at least 5/100th of that time below freezing. I've spent 1/10th of the time below 32F. Northern Minnesota has spent 95/100th of their time below 32F. Only [a good portion of] Florida, the extreme Gulf Coast, southeastern Texas, southwestern California, and southern Nevada have been "spared".

Edited for beell.



30% of winter in Asheville? That's pretty dang impressive...
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Is Nino here already.?



whoo....you just excited a few on here
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 670 Comments: 21391
Quoting 495. TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is a map of the amount of time (in %) that the United States has spent below freezing since December 1, 2013. Almost all of the lower 48 has spent at least 5/100th of that time below freezing. I've spent 1/10th of the time below 32F. Northern Minnesota has spent 95/100th of their time below 32F. Most of Florida, the extreme Gulf Coast, southeastern Texas, and the southern coasts of Nevada and California have been "spared".


I've been below freezing for 3/4th of the time according to that map. Going to stay below freezing for the foreseeable future with a few more low temps below zero possible. Looking at breaking the record low of -1F on Friday by several degrees. Also tied at 2nd for the snowiest winter on record, with more snow expected before 00z Saturday (end of meteorological winter). I'm still not tired of this winter.
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Quoting 477. Patrap:
Happy 86th Birthday to Fats Domino




Happy 86 to The Fat Man
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www.nola.com/paradecam

Mardi Gras Parade Cam


Live streaming video by Ustream
Known as StreetcarCam when not the Mardi Gras season, ParadeCam gives you a window on the corner of Napoleon St. and St. Charles Avenue, where the New Orleans streetcars run and Mardi Gras parades begin their route.
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Quoting watchingnva:


what in gods name, is this garbage.

It's called Facebook. Everyone gets to be an expert about something, even if you're 12 years old. :-)
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497. beell
Sea level rise has been rough on Nevada.
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Getty Image

Effects of smog akin to nuclear winter

Toxic air pollution in China impeding photosynthesis and could seriously affect country's food supply, experts warn

27 Feb 2014

BEIJING Scientists in China have warned that the country's toxic air pollution is now so bad that it resembles a nuclear winter, slowing photosynthesis in plants and potentially wreaking havoc on the country's food supply.

Beijing and broad swathes of six northern provinces have spent the past week blanketed in a dense smog that is not expected to abate until today. Beijing's concentration of PM2.5 particles those small enough to penetrate deep into the lungs and enter the bloodstream hit 541 micrograms per cubic metre yesterday afternoon, or beyond index, according to a United States Embassy pollution monitor, before falling to 165 in the unhealthy range last night.

The World Health Organization recommends a safe level of 25; the last time PM2.5 dropped below 150 in Beijing was on Feb 19.

Ms He Dongxian, an associate professor at China Agricultural University's College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, said new research suggested that if the smog persists, Chinese agriculture will face conditions somewhat similar to a nuclear winter. She has demonstrated that air pollutants adhere to greenhouse surfaces, cutting the amount of light inside by about 50 per cent and severely impeding photosynthesis, the process by which plants convert light into life-sustaining chemical energy.

She tested the hypothesis by growing one group of chilli and tomato seeds under artificial lab light, and another under a suburban Beijing greenhouse. In the lab, the seeds sprouted in 20 days; in the greenhouse, they took more than two months.They will be lucky to live at all, Ms He told the South China Morning Post newspaper.

She warned that if the pollution does not ease, China's agricultural production could be seriously affected.Now almost every farm is caught in a smog panic, she said.

The Chinese government has repeatedly promised to address the problem, but enforcement remains patchy. In October, Beijing introduced a system of emergency measures if pollution levels remained hazardous for three consecutive days, including closing schools, shutting some factories, and restricting the use of government cars. According to China's state newswire Xinhua, 147 industrial companies in Beijing have cut or suspended production. Yet schools stayed open and government cars remained on the road.

The heavy smog in the capital may draw new scrutiny to government pledges to ease pollution around the country as leaders gather for the annual meeting of China's legislature, the National People's Congress, which begins next Wednesday. At the end of last year's event, Premier Li Keqiang promised to clean up pollution and said smog gave him a heavy heart.

One person not put off by the smog was President Xi Jinping, who made an unannounced visit on Tuesday to a trendy area popular with tourists. The visit prompted approving coverage in Chinese news reports, but also mockery on social media sites. Xi Jinping visits Beijing's Nanluoguxiang amid the smog: Breathing together, sharing the fate, said a Xinhua headline.

Mr Li Guixin, a resident of Shijiazhuang, capital of Hebei province near Beijing, has sued the local environmental protection bureau for failing to rein in the smog, saying it owed him the 10,000 yuan (S$2,065) he spent on an air purifier, masks and a treadmill to exercise indoors. He is the first person to sue the government over pollution.

Ms Li Yan, a climate and energy expert at Greenpeace East Asia, said the case could bring exposure to polluted cities outside of Beijing. She said:People ... in Beijing are suffering from polluted air, but we have the attention of domestic and international media. Shi-jiazhuang's environmental problems are far more serious and this case could bring Shijiazhuang the attention it has deserved for a long time. AGENCIES
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
This is a map of the amount of time (in %) that the United States has spent below freezing since December 1, 2013. Almost all of the lower 48 has spent at least 5/100th of that time below freezing. I've spent 1/10th of the time below 32F. Northern Minnesota has spent 95/100th of their time below 32F. Only [a good portion of] Florida, the extreme Gulf Coast, southeastern Texas, southwestern California, and southern Nevada have been "spared".

Edited for beell.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
Quoting 412. VR46L:


LMAO



I think I will wait on the NWS evaluation

:)


what in gods name, is this garbage.
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EDITORIAL in NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE

I emboldened the last two paragraphs which are the most important things to take from the editorial.

Scientist communicators

The slowdown in Earth's surface temperature increase has made headlines worldwide — but mainly to dismiss climate science.

Man-made climate change has been in the news for many years. Previously the message presented to the public was clear: climate change is global warming and that means the temperatures are going to rise unless we do something. This claim seemed to be supported by measurements of continuous increases of atmospheric CO2 — at a rate not seen before in the historical record — and associated temperature increases. Additionally, projections from climate models seemed to confirm that this was the new normal.

But does the public understand how climate models work? The projections from models are presented without much additional information on how they were obtained. A model is a simplified representation of the Earth's climate system based on knowledge of its various components — physical, biological and chemical processes — and their interactions and feedbacks. A projection of future climate can be made by applying a selected scenario of anthropogenic emissions (and therefore concentrations) or radiative forcing, which is a possible representation of what will happen. The outcome will depend on the scenario and model used as well as the initial conditions. Projections are reported from a number of runs, an ensemble, to capture the most likely future climate. Models for climate change projection using emissions scenarios work best by forecasting over the longer term. But most of us think in the here and now, so the message on climate change might have been heard on a different timescale from what the scientists intended. To complicate things even more, in the past decade the climate hasn't warmed at the rate projected, and evidence of the slowdown in temperature rise has sparked a lively scientific and public debate, as highlighted this month by a collection of articles in our Focus 'Recent slowdown in global warming'.

The media reporting of a 'hiatus' came as a surprise to the public. Prior to this, the message had been of continuous warming — to be suddenly told that this was not true led to confusion. Questions started to arise as to whether the previous message had been incorrect — was global warming not happening? This, at least, was the take of sceptics who almost immediately organized their campaign to weaken the case for governments' action on climate change, as Bob Ward explains in his interview on page 170. Their campaign, thanks also to some media representations, was unfortunately successful as the seeds of doubt were quickly sown in the minds of the public. In a Commentary on page 156, Maxwell Boykoff specifically examines the media reporting and highlights how easy it was to confuse the public discourse around the complexity of climate change. The scientists did not help either, as they were quite slow at responding and, according to Ward, showed a lack of understanding of the rules of public engagement.

The response from the scientific community was to emphasise that climate change is a long-term concern, while the hiatus is a temporary phenomenon, and to highlight that natural variability has a role to play in the shorter term. The climate system consists of many natural cycles operating on differing timescales, and in combination they result in short-term natural variability. These can work to lower, or raise, the global mean surface temperature through heat uptake or release from the oceans, among other processes. There is a lot of uncertainty associated with these cycles that carries through to model representations and projections. As Ward explains, whilst reducing uncertainty is a key research question, it should not be the starting point in communication. The surprise of the slowdown in warming and the subsequent media engagement by scientists, with a focus on uncertainties, leaves the public questioning what is actually known.

Researchers should have reiterated that the science on long-term climate change is solid and widely agreed on — 97% of scientists working in the subject support the principle of anthropogenic climate change (W. R. L. Anderegg, J. W. Prall, J. Harold and S. H. Schneider, Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 12107–12109; 2010). Then, the questions about why the timing of the hiatus had not been predicted should have been addressed.

In the recent IPCC 5th Assessment Report, Working Group I — who assess the physical science basis of climate change — made it clear that the climate system has been warming unequivocally and that many of the observed changes since the 1950s are unprecedented over decades to millennia. Over the same period of time, greenhouse gas concentrations have increased and the atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished and sea levels have risen (IPCC Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. et al.) Cambridge Univ. Press; 2013). This is what is known and is what communication efforts should focus on. But communication does not work if it is not tailored to the targeted audience — in this case the general public. And addressing the public is an ongoing job scientists should proactively take on.


My bold

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Quoting 468. Patrap:


Omg. It's the polar vortex. Run fer yer lives!

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Quoting 446. Grothar:
This map does not mean that tornadoes do not strike elsewhere, only the most prone.



Looks like sharknadoes are possible in other areas of the world as well! Who knew?
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Quoting 456. bjrabbit:
What is REALLY FUNNY is that all of these folks who spout science have no idea about the physics and chemistry (uh...science) regarding battery/charging technology.

What's really funny is when some pretentious...person claims to know "that all of these folks who spout science have no idea about the physics and chemistry."

That's quite a claim. LOL
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Lenticular clouds are pretty awesome.
They even use them on patches given to high altitude glider pilots.

Quoting 432. MAweatherboy1:
My dad, who is a pilot, took this picture of some lenticular clouds a little ways south of Salt Lake City as he was flying a couple days ago:



Lenticulars are so cool!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.