New Blast of Cold Air Invades Midwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on February 26, 2014

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A frigid blast of Arctic air will bring some of the coldest late February temperatures seen in decades to the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. this week, with temperatures 15 - 30° below normal commonplace. The cold air isn't going anywhere fast, and will stick around through early next week. The cold blast is due to an extreme jet stream pattern we have seen before this winter--a sharp ridge of high pressure over California, and a large trough of low pressure over Eastern North America. This upper air pattern was described by the National Weather Service in Buffalo, New York on Tuesday as one that occurs less than once every 30 years in late February. The intense cold is already affecting the Upper Midwest this Wednesday morning. My vote for worst winter weather of the day goes to Central Minnesota at Alexandria, where a temperature of -8°F this morning combined with winds of 14 mph to make a wind chill of -28°. The winds are expected to increase to 25 - 30 mph Wednesday afternoon with higher gusts, creating blizzard conditions. In Chicago, the intense cold is expected to put the December - February average temperature for this winter below 19°, making the winter of 2013 - 2014 the 3rd coldest winter in the Windy City's history. Only the winters of 1978 - 1979 and 1903 - 1904 were colder.


Figure 1. Great Lake ice cover as seen on February 19, 2014, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. Ice cover on North America’s Great Lakes reached 88 percent in mid-February 2014—levels not observed since 1994. The average maximum ice extent since 1973 is just over 50 percent. It has surpassed 80 percent just five times in four decades. The lowest average ice extent occurred in 2002, when only 9.5 percent of the lakes froze. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Rain coming to California
Unlike previous versions of this extreme jet stream pattern, though, the ridge over the Western U.S. will not be very persistent. The ridge of high pressure over California, which brought numerous record high temperatures for the date on Tuesday, will get broken down by a weak low pressure system on Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday and Saturday, a more intense storm system will smash through the ridge, bringing moderate to heavy rain to much of drought-parched California. This storm will then track eastwards, potentially bringing a major snowstorm and destructive ice storm on Monday to Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average at 2 meters (6.6') as diagnosed by the GFS model at 00 UTC February 26, 2014. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) created a sharp kink in the jet stream (Figure 3), which allowed cold air to spill southwards out of the Arctic over the Eastern U.S. Compensating warm air flowed northwards into the Arctic underneath ridges of high pressure over Alaska and Europe. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.


Figure 3. Winds at a height where the pressure is 250 mb show the axis of the jet stream, seen here at 00 UTC February 26, 2014. A sharp trough of low pressure was present over the Eastern U.S., and unusually strong ridges of high pressure were over the Western U.S. and the North Atlantic. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.

Wanted: professionals willing to speak about climate change to local groups
If you are a professional or graduate student with a strong background in climate science, the world needs you to reach out to local audiences at schools, retirement homes, the Chamber of Commerce, etc., and share your expertise. A new initiative by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) and the United Nations Foundation called climatevoices.org is launching a Science Speakers Network this spring, with the goal of bringing scientists and their local communities together for real dialogue on climate science that speaks to citizens’ current and future well-being and responsibility as members of a community and democracy. Materials for context-setting presentations will be offered as will coaching regarding how to begin conversations about climate change with fellow citizens. If you are interested in volunteering for this network, please go to climatevoices.org and create a profile.  Profiles will “go public” when the full web site is launched in April. Once you create a profile, you will be kept up to date on Climate Voices progress including construction of the full web site, availability of presentation materials, webinar coaching, and plans for project launch. For any questions, please contact: Cindy Schmidt (UCAR), cschmidt@ucar.edu. I have my own set of slides I use for such talks that anyone is welcome to borrow from, available at http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2013/climatetalk.ppt.

Jeff Masters

Snowy Friday (Beaker)
After a major winter storm in the Twin Cities area, I spent Friday afternoon capturing a glimpse of the beauty left in the aftermath of the storm.
Snowy Friday

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At 5:30 am, temperature at my house in Truckee, CA is 32 F.
Snowing, with about one inch on the ground, after raining well into the wee hours of the morning. Probably several more inches in the high country - my house sits at 5900 ft.
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Quoting 630. SFLWeatherman:
dry season?? not in WPB!
YEAH sure seems that way,but in the tropical season,you'll get your rains then..not too far away,we here had some rain but not the deluge i was expecting.
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Looks like nature is going to repay me for mocking it about the March 6 fail storm and instead send me a ice storm XD.Ahh nature you sure are a joker...
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Year To Date Rain for SE FL
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The winter that won't end!.It won't even hit freezing tomorrow and winds we'll make it feel like near 0 at times.Not looking forward to ice.I would rather have heavy wet snow.
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Ice Threat.....Winter Storm Titan.

There is a threat of significant, damaging ice accumulation Sunday across the Ohio Valley, and potentially parts of the mid-Mississippi Valley and Ozarks as well. It is too early to pinpoint the exact area that will be affected %u2013 reasonable scenarios range from just north of the Ohio River to just south of the Ohio River. The ultimate location of any ice storm will depend on exactly how far south the sub-freezing air near the ground reaches.

For Sunday, the northern scenario would target cities such as Indianapolis, Dayton, and Columbus (Ohio), and Cincinnati. The southern scenario could affect cities such as Memphis, Nashville, Paducah, Louisville, and Lexington.

On Monday, the ice accumulation zone is likely to be situated across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. Again, depending on exactly where cold ground temperatures and warm air aloft line up, the ice threat could range from Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, D.C., to a more southerly zone that might include Richmond and Norfolk, Va.

If you live in any of these areas, you should prepare for the possibility of a significant ice storm. We have some tips on things you may want to do now while the storm is still several days away.




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Winter Storm Titan: Ice Storm Possible for Ohio Valley; Snowstorm for West, Midwest, Northeast

Major storm begins in California late Thursday night and Friday with heavy rain and mountain snow
Modest Midwest snow Saturday turns into potentially major winter storm for Midwest Sunday, Northeast later Sunday into Monday
Ice storm possible for Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, mid-Mississippi Valley, Ozarks
Heavy snowfall expected from Central Plains to Northeast



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Quoting 628. Sfloridacat5:


Just don't know how you guys/gals do it. I guess you just need to wear the proper clothes when you go outdoors.
I've gotten to the point whenever the temperature drops below 60 degrees I think its chilly outside (reaching for a sweater or light jacket).



Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 8:00 AM EST Thursday 27 February 2014
Condition:Partly Cloudy
Pressure:29.5 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:10.2°F
Dewpoint:2.8°F
Humidity:72%
Wind:WSW 12 gust 19 mph
Wind Chill: -5
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54371
the weather radio in my house
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dry season?? not in WPB!
Quoting 622. Sfloridacat5:


Last night was a disappointment. I've been waiting all week for the rain and all I got was .02
Just barely enough to wet the ground.

Everytime it rains its up around Central Fl or further North. South Florida continues with its dry season.
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Quoting 628. Sfloridacat5:


Just don't know how you guys/gals do it. I guess you just need to wear the proper clothes when you go outdoors.
I've gotten to the point whenever the temperature drops below 60 degrees I think its chilly outside (reaching for a sweater or light jacket).



Apparently your body regulator needs things warm. I am the opposite. I can't take it when the temps break about 75 - I flee to an area that has A/C.

I get my neighbors riled up when it's in the 40's and 50's outside (You know both days this year) and I am walking around my yard with shorts and a t-shirt on, while they look like Nanook of the North. They ask aren't you cold and I ask aren't you ridiculous looking in that parka. (or if I want to be nice, aren't you hot?)

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10442
Quoting 626. hurricanes2018:

Nearby Airports cold morning here

New Haven | Clear | 7 °F
Chester | Partly Cloudy | 10 °F
Meriden | Clear | 4 °F
Bishops Orchards-Meadow Ridge | 3.9 °F
Orcutt | 4.8 °F
Bishops Orchards-LHR | 4.7 °F


Just don't know how you guys/gals do it. I guess you just need to wear the proper clothes when you go outdoors.
I've gotten to the point whenever the temperature drops below 60 degrees I think its chilly outside (reaching for a sweater or light jacket).

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Gradual clearning followed by another week of dry weather. I love the nice weather but we're setting our self up for a bad fire season for our area if this dry weather continues.
1.06" of rain for the month of February at my location in Fort Myers.




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Nearby Airports cold morning here

New Haven | Clear | 7 °F
Chester | Partly Cloudy | 10 °F
Meriden | Clear | 4 °F
Bishops Orchards-Meadow Ridge | 3.9 °F
Orcutt | 4.8 °F
Bishops Orchards-LHR | 4.7 °F
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Winter Storm Titan!!!
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Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 29 degrees and I'm going to have to go out early and warm up/defrost the suv before I head off to teach my little ones today. We have a high of 56 expected, so we'll probably be in the high 40's. But tomorrow the high is ten degrees warmer, 66 and Saturday another ten degrees higher, mid-seventies. Louisianans are ready for spring to get here.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: steak, eggs and hash browns, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, croissants, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and diced ham or bacon, Oversize Breakfast Biscuits with sausage patties and strawberry jelly on the side, bagels with cream cheese and jelly, thick slices of fried honey ham, cheesy grits and shrimp, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
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Good morning everyone. Bad times for seabirds. At first the storms in the Atlantic this winter (see below) and later this year maybe a strong El Nino in the Pacific which means lack of food as well, as far as I know.

France: storms leave thousands of dead seabirds on beaches
EuroNews Video, 27/02 07:14 CET
More than 21,000 dead birds have been found on France’s Atlantic beaches since the beginning of the year.
Huge storms meant they couldn’t catch fish that dive deeper to escape the storms.
After not eating for at least fifteen days, they died of malnutrition.
Experts say the death toll is unprecedented for at least a century.


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Quoting 618. LargoFl:
gee.................


Last night was a disappointment. I've been waiting all week for the rain and all I got was .02
Just barely enough to wet the ground.

Everytime it rains its up around Central Fl or further North. South Florida continues with its dry season.
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Quoting 620. LargoFl:
i KNOW SAR has the heat on tonight..wow.....


Got it on here, 37 right now. That would be 23 degrees below the Florida 60 degree standard for freezing.
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i KNOW SAR has the heat on tonight..wow.....
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE AT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE LATEST
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

SEVERAL HOURS OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS LEVY COUNTY. SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION STATEMENT FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE FREEZE WATCH.
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gee.................
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this massive blob Mar-7 goes into the big bend of florida on the ooz GFS..wow...
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Good Morning!......
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Hi ncstorm, yes the GFS and Euro have it as well. Looks like we really need to follow these trends on the nodels.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3318
LOL hey please help speak up about climate change to the seniors. Desperation is pathetic
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Nearby Airports very cold here

New Haven | Clear | 12 °F
Chester | Clear | 14 °F
Meriden | Clear | 9 °F

Bishops Orchards-Meadow Ridge | 11.1 °F
Orcutt | 10.6 °F
Bishops Orchards-LHR | 11.0 °F
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Good Gosh..that is one huge storm by Florida







Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
Quoting 569. BahaHurican:
It's raining on the Streets of San Francisco!!!



Hey, don't bogart that weather, pass some our way. :)
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609. flsky
Looks like a picket fence after storm surge.
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Quoting 598. sar2401:

Keep, did you check out the web site those pictures came from? Some pretty strange stuff there. Luckily, you're in Canada, so no need to worry about being interned in a FEMA camp. :-)


just more bat boy news



Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54371
Quoting Astrometeor:
17.2 currently:


Still 38 and overcast with high clouds down here. Winds are still 5-10 so we're not going to reach the upper 20's if this continues.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16068
606. Skyepony (Mod)
Oceansat fail..

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17.2 currently:

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604. Skyepony (Mod)
Low off Greenland weakened a little..from 958 to 963mb.

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
602. Skyepony (Mod)
Got .35" in Melbourne so far..

Today is Tornado and Thunderstorm Awareness Day

At midnight Tornado Drill Day begins for the entire state of FL..

General Information: At approximately 1010am EST on Thursday, February 27, all National Weather Service Forecast Offices serving Florida will transmit a practice Tornado Warning. The warning will be transmit
ted via NOAA Weather Radio Drill in place of the normal Routine Weekly Test (RWT). The Routine Weekly Test normally conducted each Wednesday will NOT take place on February 26. Local Radio and TV stations and Emergency Management offices may also choose to
broadcast this warning drill in some areas. The practice Tornado Warning will be cancelled at 1030
am EST. The drill this year was moved from Wednesday to Thursday, due to a conflict with the Florida Public Schools. If severe weather threatens Florida on Thursday, the test will be postponed to Friday, Feburary 28.

Please note that while the Tornado Warning Drill will trigger an audible alarm on some brands of
NOAA Weather Radio, other radios (i.e. Midland WR-
100) will only display a yellow advisory light on
the console.
The NWS Melbourne Tornado Warning Drill will be issued for the following east central Florida counties:
Brevard, Indian River, Lake, Martin, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, St. Lucie, Seminole and Volusia.

Additionally, all other Florida counties will receive
practice Tornado Warning Drills from their local
NWS offices
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Choo!! Choo!! All aboard the Pacific wave train to California!


Give it about two weeks and all the news from California will be mudslides and flooding. Never fails.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16068
Choo!! Choo!! All aboard the Pacific wave train to California!

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Quoting WaterWitch11:
Link
without balance we fall...but its ok ponyo will fix it

Did you ever notice that Japanese animators make everyone look Japanese, even when they're not supposed to be?
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16068
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Keep, did you check out the web site those pictures came from? Some pretty strange stuff there. Luckily, you're in Canada, so no need to worry about being interned in a FEMA camp. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16068
Link
without balance we fall...but its ok ponyo will fix it
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Quoting PedleyCA:
Good Night Peeps - Stay Dry - Stay Warm - Heater working tonight has been off for weeks. Just in case.

GN, Pedley. Hope you get some rain.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

I used to contemplate moving to Jamaica a few years back. And tbh, I still think I'm more suited/adaptive to a tropical climate.

Jamaica is a pretty nice place generally. Cost of living is high but the beaches are good, diving is excellent, and you can always go up into the mountains for a break. Just avoid Kingston. I've been there twice. The first time was 40 years ago. It was starting to slide but not bad. I was there 15 years ago and got caught n a crossfire between what I assume were Jamaican special forces and some drug kingpins right in the center of downtown Kingston. I doubt it has gotten better.
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593. Skyepony (Mod)
GFS forecast wind swath

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592. Skyepony (Mod)
93W~ 9.3N 148.9E 20kts Click pic to watch the loop of this swirl forming.
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Good Night Peeps - Stay Dry - Stay Warm - Heater working tonight has been off for weeks. Just in case.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5921
Quoting Thrawst:


I must say, the daily thunderstorm over Nassau in the summer can be particularly INTENSE, and also photogenic.

One thing I noticed about Nassau-born thunderstorms is that 50-75% of them end up only producing 1-3 lightning strikes before they wash/rain themselves out.

Over Andros (the big island to the west of Nassau), the storms are MUCH MUCH larger and more intense. This is because of a larger and more effective sea breeze and its basically like the east-coast seabreeze in southeast Florida. One day I would love to be under one of those thunderstorms to see how hard it is raining and how much lightning is occurring, because at night, the lightning over there are non-stop.

I was under one of those off Andros. A 67 foot mast make a great lightning rod. I was struck three times in 15 minutes. I saw the storm coming, grabbed my 4 sets of jumper cable, hooked them to the stays, and threw them overboard. All hands proceeded to the "salon", such as it was, and cowered until the cell passed. It took me about a half-hour until I could hear again due to the continuous thunder. You really don't want to be under one of those.
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589. OCF
Someone upthread expressed wonderment at the notion that there were tornadoes on the West Coast. Well, admittedly, they're not that big of a hazard. But still: I spend the first 18 years of my life in Oklahoma and yet somehow the closest any tornado has ever come to a house I lived in happened in Southern California. Happened maybe 15 or 20 years ago, in January or February. The track of the tornado was less than half a mile from my house. Someone's backyard sheet metal shed was ripped up and deposited across utility wires and trees a block or two away. A fast-food place's standing sign had its flat surfaces shredded. A grocery store had a 10 foot or so hole punched in its flat roof. (They stayed open during repairs, just roping off the bad aisles.) The worst damage was a block or two further on, to the roof of a school library. All told, I suppose that sounds like EF0; maybe the school library was EF1. There was a power failure over several square miles.

Tonight: not raining where I am yet. Still waiting for it to start.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.