New Blast of Cold Air Invades Midwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on February 26, 2014

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A frigid blast of Arctic air will bring some of the coldest late February temperatures seen in decades to the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. this week, with temperatures 15 - 30° below normal commonplace. The cold air isn't going anywhere fast, and will stick around through early next week. The cold blast is due to an extreme jet stream pattern we have seen before this winter--a sharp ridge of high pressure over California, and a large trough of low pressure over Eastern North America. This upper air pattern was described by the National Weather Service in Buffalo, New York on Tuesday as one that occurs less than once every 30 years in late February. The intense cold is already affecting the Upper Midwest this Wednesday morning. My vote for worst winter weather of the day goes to Central Minnesota at Alexandria, where a temperature of -8°F this morning combined with winds of 14 mph to make a wind chill of -28°. The winds are expected to increase to 25 - 30 mph Wednesday afternoon with higher gusts, creating blizzard conditions. In Chicago, the intense cold is expected to put the December - February average temperature for this winter below 19°, making the winter of 2013 - 2014 the 3rd coldest winter in the Windy City's history. Only the winters of 1978 - 1979 and 1903 - 1904 were colder.


Figure 1. Great Lake ice cover as seen on February 19, 2014, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. Ice cover on North America’s Great Lakes reached 88 percent in mid-February 2014—levels not observed since 1994. The average maximum ice extent since 1973 is just over 50 percent. It has surpassed 80 percent just five times in four decades. The lowest average ice extent occurred in 2002, when only 9.5 percent of the lakes froze. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Rain coming to California
Unlike previous versions of this extreme jet stream pattern, though, the ridge over the Western U.S. will not be very persistent. The ridge of high pressure over California, which brought numerous record high temperatures for the date on Tuesday, will get broken down by a weak low pressure system on Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday and Saturday, a more intense storm system will smash through the ridge, bringing moderate to heavy rain to much of drought-parched California. This storm will then track eastwards, potentially bringing a major snowstorm and destructive ice storm on Monday to Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average at 2 meters (6.6') as diagnosed by the GFS model at 00 UTC February 26, 2014. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) created a sharp kink in the jet stream (Figure 3), which allowed cold air to spill southwards out of the Arctic over the Eastern U.S. Compensating warm air flowed northwards into the Arctic underneath ridges of high pressure over Alaska and Europe. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.


Figure 3. Winds at a height where the pressure is 250 mb show the axis of the jet stream, seen here at 00 UTC February 26, 2014. A sharp trough of low pressure was present over the Eastern U.S., and unusually strong ridges of high pressure were over the Western U.S. and the North Atlantic. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.

Wanted: professionals willing to speak about climate change to local groups
If you are a professional or graduate student with a strong background in climate science, the world needs you to reach out to local audiences at schools, retirement homes, the Chamber of Commerce, etc., and share your expertise. A new initiative by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) and the United Nations Foundation called climatevoices.org is launching a Science Speakers Network this spring, with the goal of bringing scientists and their local communities together for real dialogue on climate science that speaks to citizens’ current and future well-being and responsibility as members of a community and democracy. Materials for context-setting presentations will be offered as will coaching regarding how to begin conversations about climate change with fellow citizens. If you are interested in volunteering for this network, please go to climatevoices.org and create a profile.  Profiles will “go public” when the full web site is launched in April. Once you create a profile, you will be kept up to date on Climate Voices progress including construction of the full web site, availability of presentation materials, webinar coaching, and plans for project launch. For any questions, please contact: Cindy Schmidt (UCAR), cschmidt@ucar.edu. I have my own set of slides I use for such talks that anyone is welcome to borrow from, available at http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2013/climatetalk.ppt.

Jeff Masters

Snowy Friday (Beaker)
After a major winter storm in the Twin Cities area, I spent Friday afternoon capturing a glimpse of the beauty left in the aftermath of the storm.
Snowy Friday

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Despite last week's warm-up, the CONUS temperature average is 1.7C below the 1981-2010 average--and it should fall further over the coming days.

It's 39F with a cold, steady rain here in coastal NC.

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Quoting 132. Neapolitan:
I've posted the rain forecasts several times myself, and I've seen others do it here, as well. But I'll say this much: as nice as these rains are, they'll account for not much more than a drop in the bucket, as the annual rainy season has but a few more weeks in it--and the long, dry summer begins. IOW, welcome as these storms are, they're not going to be enough to get rid of the drought. Fact is, they'll barely make a dent.

California is in trouble...


Not according to ABC News..you may want to enlighten them on your discovery so they can retract their story.. and you posting the rain is always with a "but" as you just did before which represents doom and gloom..excerpt from the story below..



The first storm on Wednesday won't offer much relief, just light overnight rains heading into Thursday. By Friday, radar images show the second storm should drench the entire state for 24 hours.

"We're not calling it a drought-buster, but it definitely will make a difference," said Jim Bagnall, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Hanford, one of many San Joaquin Valley towns where farmers have fallowed crops in anticipation of record low water supplies. "With these few storms, we could see about an inch total in the valley. So this could obviously have some significant impact."

The wet weather is badly needed: Since July 1, only 5.85 inches of rain have fallen in San Francisco, or about 35 percent of normal for this time of year. Just 1.2 inches have fallen in downtown Los Angeles, compared to 10.45 inches in a normal year.

The heavy rains will likely lead to flash flooding and runoff, carrying mud, trees and debris in areas burned in recent fires, such as the Colby fire, near Glendora.

"People who live around the burn areas need to be aware that Friday and Saturday could be potentially dangerous days," said Andrew Rorke, senior meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard.

At higher elevations, the storms could blanket the Sierra in several feet of snow reaching down as low as about 4,500 feet, Bagnall said.

Looking further into the future, meteorologists say computer models show another sign of hope: greater chances that this year could see El Nino conditions and accompanying rainfall.

The San Jose Mercury News reports (http://bit.ly/1fmbIyT) researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in November there was a 36 percent chance of El Nino conditions developing by August 2014. NOAA recently updated that probability to 49 percent.

"There's been an uptick recently. More models favor El Niño," said Jon Gottschalck, acting chief of operational prediction at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Md. "We certainly don't want to promise anything, but conditions are looking better."

Scientists are quick to say that El Nino conditions don't guarantee that California will get intense rainfall. But if the pattern is strong and temperatures are warm in the Pacific Ocean, the likelihood of heavy rainfall increases.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16083
Quoting 124. Birthmark:

A little help? Can you please point out the "pause" for me? TIA.



My condolences about your feelings on the rest.


There has been a dramatic slowing of the warming trend over the last 10-14 years. This is a fact. You did not show a trend for less than a 30-year period. Does this mean global warming is actually slowing? Nobody knows. A 30-year slowing would be more significant.

This is the "pause."

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I think the Weather channel will be back on DirecTV on March 1st, 2014 at midnight.Since the keeptheweatherchannel.com site is gone, I think they will be back.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
134. NCstu
Quoting 132. Neapolitan:
I've posted the rain forecasts several times myself, and I've seen others do it here, as well. But I'll say this much: as nice as these rains are, they'll account for not much more than a drop in the bucket, as the annual rainy season has but a few more weeks in it--and the long, dry summer begins. IOW, welcome as these storms are, they're not going to be enough to get rid of the drought. Fact is, they'll barely make a dent.

California is in trouble...
dude, the super nino is gonna make the Californians miss the drought. I would say landslides, erosion, and flooding are a big threat too.
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Was browsing news articles. Over on Ars Technica - scientist believes massive off shore windfarms can reduce the wind speeds of hurricanes

Here is a link to the article(as always in plain text to ensure no cries of malice :) ):

http://arstechnica.com/science/2014/02/massive-of fshore-wind-farms-unexpected-benefit-hurricane-pro tection/


Not sure I would want a massive wind farm out in the ocean (even though I dont live there)

But sure is interesting perspective wise.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 126. ncstorm:
See this wont be posted by some on here because it doesn't represent doom and gloom as most want to represent on this blog..but those dang drought maps get posted though..look California is getting rain..even several feet of snow in the Sierra Nevada
I've posted the rain forecasts several times myself, and I've seen others do it here, as well. But I'll say this much: as nice as these rains are, they'll account for not much more than a drop in the bucket, as the annual rainy season has but a few more weeks in it--and the long, dry summer begins. IOW, welcome as these storms are, they're not going to be enough to get rid of the drought. Fact is, they'll barely make a dent.

California is in trouble...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
130. NCstu
Quoting 128. sar2401:

We went through this a couple of days ago. With the exception of his "hurricane forecast" issued through PRWeb, there's no evidence I've seen that backs up any of his other claims. His web site is registered through Godaddy with an anonymous proxy, not something legitimate businesses do. Everything on his web site requires you pay him some unknown amount of money to see anything else. Until I see evidence to the contrary, I consider him a fraud.
you mean his prediction of 130 years of cooling might not be right???
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As with many others, I too will continue to educate those not informed on climate change.

That being said, this next storm set cannot make up its mind in the models (though I believe they are getting a handle on it slowly) but its back to saying a lot of snow for KC Mo area.

But the big red blobishness in Arkansas is interesting. 4+ inches of precip - imagine that in a snow packed wallop. I think it will be mix or rain but hard to tell at this point.
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Quoting ricderr:
Strong 2014 Hurricane Season Predicted: by Company with Best Predictions Record Past 5 Years
Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), a leading hurricane and climate cycle Prediction Company, and the only organization that was correct in predicting the weak 2013 season, recently issued...

We went through this a couple of days ago. With the exception of his "hurricane forecast" issued through PRWeb, there's no evidence I've seen that backs up any of his other claims. His web site is registered through Godaddy with an anonymous proxy, not something legitimate businesses do. Everything on his web site requires you pay him some unknown amount of money to see anything else. Until I see evidence to the contrary, I consider him a fraud.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16481
When one comes here using his employee's as a moniker for his position,I'm sure glad I don't work for someone like that.


; )


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
See this wont be posted by some on here because it doesn't represent doom and gloom as most want to represent on this blog..but those dang drought maps get posted though..look California is getting rain..even several feet of snow in the Sierra Nevada







Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16083
125. whitewabit (Mod)
Dr Masters ..

I was wondering if the 80% ice coverage on the great lakes will equate to higher water levels this spring due to less radiant evaporation this winter ? And if so how much of a rise in levels could be expected.
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Quoting 117. bjrabbit:
I guess what is driving this is that normal people, based on observable evidence, just don't care about global warming, especially since MM and his bleating sheep can't explain the "pause". The "Pause" which is btw is becoming longer that the warming that existed in the late 90's.

A little help? Can you please point out the "pause" for me? TIA.



My condolences about your feelings on the rest.
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123. NCstu
Quoting 114. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
actually he has pretty good odds the region is overdue for a big one its been awhile

and there have been a few big ones the last few years all around the ring

so not a matter of if but when
Here is his incredibly bold prediction:


"Prediction Summary - In July of 2012, California will enter a three year window for PFM induced​ increased earthquake activity. The window is centered on the period December 2013 to March 2014. There is an overall 90% risk for a major to strong earthquake (6.4 to 8 magnitude) during this period, a 75% risk for a major (7 to 8 magnitude) earthquake, and a 40% risk for a severe 7.5 to 8 magnitude earthquake. Note that the risk for a major earthquake is very much above the long-term risk. The highest predicted risk of(75%) for a major earthquake is from July 2013 to July 2014, with the greatest and most likely risk period​ being December 2013 into March 2014."
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Quoting 117. bjrabbit:
I was enjoying the post until...

Climatevoices.org....What a joke. To set up a profile, they make you agree, electronically that you subscribe to their crackpot theories. So much for open debate. What is even scarier is that if you look at the qualifications of potential speakers, they have multiple levels of acceptance. Of course they want somebody who has an actual degree in weather science, but, if you are a communications major who never took a course in Differential Equations, but believe in AGW....you'll do. The bottom level of acceptance would probably allow many of the self assured AGWer's on this blog who more than likely never took any more advanced math class than Algebra II, to be a speaker. It's not what you know, but what you believe.

I guess what is driving this is that normal people, based on observable evidence, just don't care about global warming, especially since MM and his bleating sheep can't explain the "pause". The "Pause" which is btw is becoming longer that the warming that existed in the late 90's.

I look at people like my employees...who couldn't care less about the subject. So, AGWer's are having to gin things up to keep this scam going.

BZ
Shorter version: "I don't like science. It's scary."

See all the letters you could have saved yourself from typing? ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 65. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
with the way its going if and when the cold breaks down we may get a sudden warming to herald in spring if it stays cold for most of march
Keeper, with the recent weather extremes, and what Dr. Masters calls "whiplash weather" influenced by AGW/CC, I "believe" that it is possible that the U.S. could see some interesting early spring warm-ups.
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'blogquote'>Quoting 110. hydrus:
It was said that some of the bad guys are making there way into law enforcement despite psych screens and background checks...Not good.



Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2014

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 26 2014 - 12Z Fri Feb 28 2014

...Arctic air continues to filter into the eastern two thirds of the
Country...

...Showers and thunderstorms expected along the Gulf Coast states...

...Much needed precipitation should move into drought stricken
California...

With an arctic airmass in place, temperatures will remain below average
over a good portion of the nation east of the Rockies through the next
couple of days. Teens and single digit highs are expected across much the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions today, while temperatures struggle
to get above freezing in locations as far south as the Tennessee valley.
By Thursday temperatures should begin to rebound across the central and
southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. However back the
north, a reinforcing shot of colder air will move across the upper
Midwest and Great Lakes, driving temperatures even lower. From the
eastern Dakotas to the upper Great Lakes, subzero to single digits are the
expected daytime highs on Thursday -- temperatures that are 30 to 40
degrees below normal for this time of year. In addition to some lake
effect snow showers, scattered light snows may focus near the low pressure
center associated with the reinforcing shot of colder air as it moves
across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Otherwise, expect dry
conditions across this region through the period.

Further to the east, expect some light snows to move across the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast early today in association with an upper
disturbance and weak cold front moving across the region. Then later in
the period as the low crossing the Midwest nears the Northeast coast and
gains access to some Atlantic moisture, it may develop some better
organized heavier snows along the northern New England coast by late
Thursday.

Further to the south at the leading edge of the initial shot of arctic
air, a frontal boundary will continue to focus convection along the Gulf
coast today. Moisture drawn from the Gulf should fuel some organized
areas of moderate to heavy rains over this region today, especially from
the central Gulf coast into north Florida. The boundary and associated
precipitation should drop down into the Gulf by early Thursday, but
Florida will see continued shower and thunderstorm activity as the front
pushes through the state.

A long-standing ridge in the West will give way to an approaching Pacific
system, allowing precipitation to spread inland over the Western U.S.
beginning later today. Drought stricken California should see the brunt
of the action, with the highest totals expected along the Sierra and the
coastal ranges. By Thursday expect this system to move across the Great
Basin into the Rockies, but with another system nearing the California
coast by early Friday.

Pereira


"...every cop is a criminal...and all the sinners, saints..."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Some models have the AO going to minus 4..That would be bad..

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Quoting 67. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Maybe we can get some tech support?



Not available here in Florida either. It is summer here.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10572
I was enjoying the post until...

Climatevoices.org....What a joke. To set up a profile, they make you agree, electronically that you subscribe to their crackpot theories. So much for open debate. What is even scarier is that if you look at the qualifications of potential speakers, they have multiple levels of acceptance. Of course they want somebody who has an actual degree in weather science, but, if you are a communications major who never took a course in Differential Equations, but believe in AGW....you'll do. The bottom level of acceptance would probably allow many of the self assured AGWer's on this blog who more than likely never took any more advanced math class than Algebra II, to be a speaker. It's not what you know, but what you believe.

I guess what is driving this is that normal people, based on observable evidence, just don't care about global warming, especially since MM and his bleating sheep can't explain the "pause". The "Pause" which is btw is becoming longer that the warming that existed in the late 90's.

I look at people like my employees...who couldn't care less about the subject. So, AGWer's are having to gin things up to keep this scam going.

BZ
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 29. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
earth


Date | 2014-02-26 13:00 Local 1 pm est

Data | Wind + Temp @ Surface

Scale |

Source | GFS / NCEP / US National Weather Service


Link


3rd storm lurking back off the Aluetians. Wonder if that is for SoCal....
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I parked my car for 30 minutes to go shopping and I almost froze to the steering wheel !!
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Quoting 109. NCstu:
"Dilley says that while other weather organizations predicted a strong hurricane season for last year, GWO was the only organization that was correct in predicting a very weak 2013 hurricane season due to hostile upper atmospheric wind shear, and that the United States coast would not have a hurricane strike"

I think this guy is a bit of a hack. On the one hand he did in fact nail the 2013 season. On the other hand, what does it say when someone makes a prediction that is completely different than the rest of the scientific community? Here's some good stuff:

He is also currently predicting a 130 year global cooling cycle. He also predicted a 7.0 or higher earthquake in California between November and March. If CA sees a big earthquake in March, then I might change my mind and start calling him a genius.
actually he has pretty good odds the region is overdue for a big one its been awhile

and there have been a few big ones the last few years all around the ring

so not a matter of if but when
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
Quoting 43. ncstorm:
LOL..is there another Dr. Rood's blog that I am not aware of where people are kind and helpful to one another?
NC, if you ever go there and ask an intelligent question, you will be quite surprised at the polite and helpful response you get. However, since you go over there occasionally only to berate, insult and attack the science-minded regulars who get sarcastic with trolls and AGW/CC deniers, some resentment and questioning of your sincerity might surface.

So why do you go to the climate blog of a climate science professional, and do nothing there except attack the messengers for their "manners" and never honor Dr. Rood by asking an intelligent question?

Unfortunately, I can practically guarantee the you will not even attempt to write an honest and intelligent response to my question, but rather will attack and berate me for daring to challenge your false statement.

Please be honest and forthright for once. I, for one, would be most pleased if you would stop the nastiness and join in earnest conversation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 104. sar2401:

I'm not particularly concerned about snow except in the furthermost north reaches of the Gulf states. I am concerned that this could be a good setup for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, since this is a classic cold versus warm air event. Assuming the GFS verifies, it might be snow and ice in Tennessee and dodging hail and tornadoes down here.
I hope not..The snow is O.K.
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Quoting 100. ricderr:
Strong 2014 Hurricane Season Predicted: by Company with Best Predictions Record Past 5 Years
Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), a leading hurricane and climate cycle Prediction Company, and the only organization that was correct in predicting the weak 2013 season, recently issued its hurricane predictions for the 2014 through 2017 seasons. CEO David Dilley, says the upcoming Atlantic Basin hurricane season will be stronger and more dangerous than last year, an about face from 2013 which saw the development and strength of tropical storm and hurricane activity suppressed by hostile upper atmospheric wind shear.

GWO was the only organization that was correct in predicting a very weak 2013 hurricane season
Ocala, FL (PRWEB) January 17, 2014

Global Weather Oscillations Inc. GWO), a leading hurricane and climate cycle prediction company, recently issued its hurricane predictions for the 2014 through 2017 seasons.
CEO David Dilley, Ocala, FL, says the upcoming season will be stronger and more dangerous than last year, with 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. This will be an about face from 2013 which saw the development and strength of tropical storm and hurricane activity suppressed by hostile upper atmospheric wind shear. An average hurricane season has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
In a newspaper interview in late December http://www.ocala.com/article/2013131219767 , Dilley says that while other weather organizations predicted a strong hurricane season for last year, GWO was the only organization that was correct in predicting a very weak 2013 hurricane season due to hostile upper atmospheric wind shear, and that the United States coast would not have a hurricane strike. As it turned out, hostile wind shear dominated the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico region during most the 2013 hurricane season.
The wind shear coupled with sand blowing off Africa and over the eastern Atlantic, stifled developing tropical systems similar to an El Nino, and was one of the key reasons for the 2013 being the third weakest hurricane season since 1956 and least active hurricane season since 2009.
Mr. Dilley says that what makes GWO a standout from other organizations is their commitment to research and development of GWO%u2019s Climate Pulse Technology (CPT) that incorporates climate cycle mechanisms that control the rhythm of weather cycles. Research over the past 25 years has found that each of the Atlantic and Gulf coastal zones have varying weather cycles, and within each cycle, there exists smaller weather cycles which make each zone unique. Once all of the cycles are discovered, Dilley then uses the Climate Pulse Technology to accurately assess the intensity of a future hurricane season, and the probability risk for hurricane or tropical storm conditions within a prediction zone for that year.
GWO makes specific predictions for 11 U. S. coastal zones from New England to Texas, and is currently expanding their predictions to include the Philippine Islands in the western Pacific, and eventually all of the western Pacific and Caribbean regions. Prediction Zones assigned a high probability risk for a hurricane are termed %u201CHot Spots%u201D for that year; GWO%u2019s red-flag hot spot predictions for the United States have been nearly 90 percent accurate since 2006, and instrumental for long-range planning by insurance companies and other organizations.
GWO%u2019s recent CPT model successes include the very weak 2013 hurricane season, hot spot zone predictions of Hurricane Ike (2008), Irene (2011), and Sandy (2012). The prediction of Sandy, a high-impact hybrid storm was made 3 years in advance, and Irene 2 years in advance. Mr. Dilley is confident about his 2014 prediction calling for an active season (17 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes). The last major hurricane to strike the U.S. was in 2005 (Wilma), but that could change in 2014.
David Dilley, a former NOAA meteorologist formed Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) in 1992 with the specific understanding that weather and climate occurs in cycles. While mankind is playing some role in climate change, David Dilley believes most climate changes are primarily attributable to weather cycles. He disputes the notion that hurricanes occur randomly and are impossible to predict. He states %u201CThere are no random hurricanes, everything occurs in cycles.%u201D


They could be right although we may have a limited amount of storms this year but the ones that do form could be humdingers. I also don't know if there is a normal anymore to weather predictions especially with the constant loss of Arctic Sea Ice altering weather patterns the likes we have never seen before. Good read.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3937
Quoting 105. Patrap:
Not much humor in a murder...esp when the shooter was a retired Fla. Police Officer.
It was said that some of the bad guys are making there way into law enforcement despite psych screens and background checks...Not good.



Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2014

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 26 2014 - 12Z Fri Feb 28 2014

...Arctic air continues to filter into the eastern two thirds of the
Country...

...Showers and thunderstorms expected along the Gulf Coast states...

...Much needed precipitation should move into drought stricken
California...

With an arctic airmass in place, temperatures will remain below average
over a good portion of the nation east of the Rockies through the next
couple of days. Teens and single digit highs are expected across much the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions today, while temperatures struggle
to get above freezing in locations as far south as the Tennessee valley.
By Thursday temperatures should begin to rebound across the central and
southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. However back the
north, a reinforcing shot of colder air will move across the upper
Midwest and Great Lakes, driving temperatures even lower. From the
eastern Dakotas to the upper Great Lakes, subzero to single digits are the
expected daytime highs on Thursday -- temperatures that are 30 to 40
degrees below normal for this time of year. In addition to some lake
effect snow showers, scattered light snows may focus near the low pressure
center associated with the reinforcing shot of colder air as it moves
across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Otherwise, expect dry
conditions across this region through the period.

Further to the east, expect some light snows to move across the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast early today in association with an upper
disturbance and weak cold front moving across the region. Then later in
the period as the low crossing the Midwest nears the Northeast coast and
gains access to some Atlantic moisture, it may develop some better
organized heavier snows along the northern New England coast by late
Thursday.

Further to the south at the leading edge of the initial shot of arctic
air, a frontal boundary will continue to focus convection along the Gulf
coast today. Moisture drawn from the Gulf should fuel some organized
areas of moderate to heavy rains over this region today, especially from
the central Gulf coast into north Florida. The boundary and associated
precipitation should drop down into the Gulf by early Thursday, but
Florida will see continued shower and thunderstorm activity as the front
pushes through the state.

A long-standing ridge in the West will give way to an approaching Pacific
system, allowing precipitation to spread inland over the Western U.S.
beginning later today. Drought stricken California should see the brunt
of the action, with the highest totals expected along the Sierra and the
coastal ranges. By Thursday expect this system to move across the Great
Basin into the Rockies, but with another system nearing the California
coast by early Friday.

Pereira
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
109. NCstu
"Dilley says that while other weather organizations predicted a strong hurricane season for last year, GWO was the only organization that was correct in predicting a very weak 2013 hurricane season due to hostile upper atmospheric wind shear, and that the United States coast would not have a hurricane strike"

I think this guy is a bit of a hack. On the one hand he did in fact nail the 2013 season. On the other hand, what does it say when someone makes a prediction that is completely different than the rest of the scientific community?

He is also currently predicting a 130 year global cooling cycle. He also predicted a 7.0 or higher earthquake in California between November and March. If CA sees a big earthquake in March, then I might change my mind and start calling him a genius.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not much humor in a murder...esp when the shooter was a retired Fla. Police Officer.


ok...i catch your first part...but i don't understand the second part you added later
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow... talk about your cold weather up north.

And talk about hotter than heck weather in Florida. 87F right now and I parked the car for 30 minutes to go shopping and almost couldn't touch the steering wheel.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10572
Quoting 104. sar2401:

I'm not particularly concerned about snow except in the furthermost north reaches of the Gulf states. I am concerned that this could be a good setup for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, since this is a classic cold versus warm air event. Assuming the GFS verifies, it might be snow and ice in Tennessee and dodging hail and tornadoes down here.


gonna be lots of atmosphere moving around
and well when it starts moving
things like to start twisting and turning
right along with it
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
Not much humor in a murder...esp when the shooter was a retired Fla. Police Officer.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


gets very cold in GA very fast
but check out the central US





as i said no snow in the SE

I'm not particularly concerned about snow except in the furthermost north reaches of the Gulf states. I am concerned that this could be a good setup for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, since this is a classic cold versus warm air event. Assuming the GFS verifies, it might be snow and ice in Tennessee and dodging hail and tornadoes down here.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16481
Thanks for the new post Doc,
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There's no doubt in my mind that we'll never make progress as long as we function in the mindset of that goofball blogger in your previous link. He would be a real bad choice to speak to retired people. Some of them still pack a pretty mean punch. :-)



mean punch???......they're packing heat....like the old man at the theater in florida who shot the guy for texting...LOL
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Quoting 37. luvtogolf:
I will continue to reach out and do my part in preaching the truth about Climate Change.
Interesting definition of AGW/CC denial - call the falsehoods truth!
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Strong 2014 Hurricane Season Predicted: by Company with Best Predictions Record Past 5 Years
Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), a leading hurricane and climate cycle Prediction Company, and the only organization that was correct in predicting the weak 2013 season, recently issued its hurricane predictions for the 2014 through 2017 seasons. CEO David Dilley, says the upcoming Atlantic Basin hurricane season will be stronger and more dangerous than last year, an about face from 2013 which saw the development and strength of tropical storm and hurricane activity suppressed by hostile upper atmospheric wind shear.

GWO was the only organization that was correct in predicting a very weak 2013 hurricane season
Ocala, FL (PRWEB) January 17, 2014

Global Weather Oscillations Inc. GWO), a leading hurricane and climate cycle prediction company, recently issued its hurricane predictions for the 2014 through 2017 seasons.
CEO David Dilley, Ocala, FL, says the upcoming season will be stronger and more dangerous than last year, with 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. This will be an about face from 2013 which saw the development and strength of tropical storm and hurricane activity suppressed by hostile upper atmospheric wind shear. An average hurricane season has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
In a newspaper interview in late December http://www.ocala.com/article/2013131219767 , Dilley says that while other weather organizations predicted a strong hurricane season for last year, GWO was the only organization that was correct in predicting a very weak 2013 hurricane season due to hostile upper atmospheric wind shear, and that the United States coast would not have a hurricane strike. As it turned out, hostile wind shear dominated the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico region during most the 2013 hurricane season.
The wind shear coupled with sand blowing off Africa and over the eastern Atlantic, stifled developing tropical systems similar to an El Nino, and was one of the key reasons for the 2013 being the third weakest hurricane season since 1956 and least active hurricane season since 2009.
Mr. Dilley says that what makes GWO a standout from other organizations is their commitment to research and development of GWO’s Climate Pulse Technology (CPT) that incorporates climate cycle mechanisms that control the rhythm of weather cycles. Research over the past 25 years has found that each of the Atlantic and Gulf coastal zones have varying weather cycles, and within each cycle, there exists smaller weather cycles which make each zone unique. Once all of the cycles are discovered, Dilley then uses the Climate Pulse Technology to accurately assess the intensity of a future hurricane season, and the probability risk for hurricane or tropical storm conditions within a prediction zone for that year.
GWO makes specific predictions for 11 U. S. coastal zones from New England to Texas, and is currently expanding their predictions to include the Philippine Islands in the western Pacific, and eventually all of the western Pacific and Caribbean regions. Prediction Zones assigned a high probability risk for a hurricane are termed “Hot Spots” for that year; GWO’s red-flag hot spot predictions for the United States have been nearly 90 percent accurate since 2006, and instrumental for long-range planning by insurance companies and other organizations.
GWO’s recent CPT model successes include the very weak 2013 hurricane season, hot spot zone predictions of Hurricane Ike (2008), Irene (2011), and Sandy (2012). The prediction of Sandy, a high-impact hybrid storm was made 3 years in advance, and Irene 2 years in advance. Mr. Dilley is confident about his 2014 prediction calling for an active season (17 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes). The last major hurricane to strike the U.S. was in 2005 (Wilma), but that could change in 2014.
David Dilley, a former NOAA meteorologist formed Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) in 1992 with the specific understanding that weather and climate occurs in cycles. While mankind is playing some role in climate change, David Dilley believes most climate changes are primarily attributable to weather cycles. He disputes the notion that hurricanes occur randomly and are impossible to predict. He states “There are no random hurricanes, everything occurs in cycles.”
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Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Why does it have to take place at a retirement home? Why can't it be at a school? This is not just strictly about age, there is just as many young folks who believe in the Global Warming, and I would think it would be nice if they came up and spoke at these conventions. nctorm I think it would be great if you attend too, maybe it will change your thinking, but at least I would hope you could gain some scientific background of the situation, so if indeed things get way out of hand, you'll know the reasons why.

Well, Dr, Masters did mention retirement homes, so I guess that issue is in play. This type of outreach is a really good idea. It will get science out of journals and in front of regular folks. It's a good way for regular folks to hear about climate change from someone with a scientific background and also a good thing for the science types to hear what the average person thinks about the issue. There's no doubt in my mind that we'll never make progress as long as we function in the mindset of that goofball blogger in your previous link. He would be a real bad choice to speak to retired people. Some of them still pack a pretty mean punch. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16481
its snowing at my house again
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 54 Comments: 84194
Quoting 61. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The never-ending, record-breaking winter of 2013-14 looks to continue through the start of March. Check out low temperatures on the 5th:



Looks like >95% of America below freezing.


gets very cold in GA very fast
but check out the central US





as i said no snow in the SE
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Starting to look pretty wet.

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Thanks Dr:

A frigid blast of Arctic air will bring some of the coldest late February temperatures seen in decades to the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. this week, with temperatures 15 - 30 below normal commonplace.

And current record breaking heat in certain parts of Brazil at the same time in the Southern Hemisphere Summer.

Incredible really when you consider the implications.
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Quoting 86. Neapolitan:
But there were many such predictions, including right here in this forum. Perhaps not specifics: "February will be one of the coldest on record for Chicago". But some spoke of the possibility that Dr. Jennifer Francis' theory of wonky jet stream behavior due to the relatively sudden disappearance of the Arctic ice might possibly induce more-or-less persistent cold in some NH locations, and more-or-less persistent warmth in others.

That, of course, is precisely what has happened.
LinkNOAA and TWC fails. LinkAccuweather fail, particularly in the SE but also CA
West: Reservoirs to Catch Up, Drought Relief on Horizon

"From December through January, California will enter a period of heavy precipitation resulting in much-needed relief from the extreme drought.

For more than two years, parts of the state have endured moderate to extreme drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

"I think this can definitely alleviate some drought issues. I think we're going to fill those reservoirs up a little bit," Pastelok said."

Yes, Jennifer Francis said that there will be extreme cold and extreme warm this winter. Total win for Jennifer Francis. Some on here have alternatingly been completely wrong and completely right on this winter.
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We have posted his WP article and discussed its BS at length over at Dr. Ricky Roods climate blog.

Thanks for the recap as many here may have missed the whole charade by Him.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
# 80 - Patrap

"Like Krauthammer on FOX news last night. How one can cram so much stupid into a conversation of Climate Change on O'Reilliy was quite the feat.

But they managed to cite BS and other fools gold nuggets of denialism"

Krauthammer posted a commentary in the WaPo last week, pointing to an op-ed in the WSJ the day before, written by McNider and Christy. Here's my comment from RealClimate:

McNider and Christy present a graph showing temperature vs. model results (Why Kerry Is Flat Wrong on Climate Change). This graph appears similar to one presented by Roy Spencer in his written testimony before the US Senate Environment and Public Works Committee last July. Here’s the LINK to Spencer’s written comments, showing this graph as Figure 2.

Spencer claimed the graph shows Middle Troposphere data, probably the UAH TMT averaged with the RSS version of the same, both data sets based on the MSU channel 2 measurements. These data are known to include strong influence from the stratosphere in addition to that from the troposphere and was the main reason given by Spencer and Christy for the introduction of their lower troposphere (now called TLT) product back in 1992. As a result of the stratospheric influence, the MT graph shows much less warming compared to that found in other data sets for the troposphere or surface. Spencer obviously knows this, which indicates that he intended to deceive the US Senate with this presentation, IMHO.

It's clear that McNider and Christy have perpetuated this deception by repeating the presentation of this graphical data. McNider and Christy didn’t mention that Spencer’s graph was limited to tropical latitudes between 20S and 20N, so the unaware might assume that the graph represented the entire Earth. Worse, McNider and Christy shifted the so-called “model” curve above the satellite data curve, which results in a visual impression of greater difference between the two. The WSJ op-ed was immediately pointed to by Charles Krauthammer in his latest opinion piece on the Washington Post late Thursday (The myth of ‘settled science’), spreading the disinformation to a much wider audience. The WSJ was clearly complicit in this deception, allowing the McNider and Christy piece to appear without the usual paywall that surrounds most of the WSJ site so that individuals reading Kruathammer’s commentary could link directly to the WSJ post. I suggest that these actions are just another example of the well known saying from pre-World War II Germany: “A lie repeated often enough becomes the truth”. As we are now entering another election cycle, I expect to see more of this sort of disinformation spread far and wide.

Given the ongoing concerns regarding the Keystone XL pipeline and EPA's proposals to regulate CO2 emissions, many sectors of the US economy, such as the fossil fuel and electric power industries would likely be impacted and sending the wrong signal to the public would likely result in imprudent investments. Presenting false and deceptive information is considered a fraud in some legal situations, particularly regarding securities. For a group of individuals to do this represents conspiracy to commit fraud, which is also a crime in the US. One can only wish that these denialist be brought before a court of law to face whatever justice is applicable...
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Quoting georgevandenberghe:



Your request is important to us. All of our reps are currently busy helping higher priority customers further away from the NORTH POLE!!. Your request will be serviced in order of latitude. Your current wait time is
34 days, 12 hours, 57 minutes.

LOL. You can tell when our friends up north are just about over the edge with winter. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16481
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:


In the long run, the Earth's water and most of its atmosphere will eventually escape into space. During its life in the main sequence, the Sun is becoming more luminous (about 10% every 1 billion years) and its surface temperature is slowly rising. The Sun used to be fainter in its early past. The increase in solar temperatures is such that in about another billion years the Earth's atmosphere will no longer be cold enough to freeze water vapour at high altitudes.[citation needed] Water molecules will then be able to reach the top of the atmosphere, which will lead to the Earth's water escaping into space, rendering the planet inhospitable to all known terrestrial life.[115][116] The Earth is not expected to survive the Sun's transition into a red giant. At its largest, the Sun will have a maximum radius beyond the Earth's current orbit, 1 AU (1.5×1011 m), 250 times the present radius of the Sun.[115] By the time the Sun has entered the asymptotic red giant branch, the orbits of the planets will have drifted outwards due to a loss of roughly 30% of the Sun's present mass. Most of this mass will be lost as the solar wind increases. Also, tidal acceleration will help boost the Earth to a higher orbit (similar to what the Earth does to the moon). If it were only for this, Earth would probably remain outside the Sun. However, current research suggests that after the Sun becomes a red giant, Earth will be pulled in owing to tidal deceleration.[1

Future of the Earth



*Disclaimer
These are just wikipedia entries and theories on the fate of the Earth and do not depict the actual outcome of the Earth. I'll be a dead man before that time anyways.

The End.

What's most amazing is that, once it was a settled science fact, the earth as we know it would end in some time span measured in billions of years, that one more dime was spent on this when we have some pretty pressing issue that aren't that far away.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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