New Blast of Cold Air Invades Midwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on February 26, 2014

Share this Blog
47
+

A frigid blast of Arctic air will bring some of the coldest late February temperatures seen in decades to the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. this week, with temperatures 15 - 30° below normal commonplace. The cold air isn't going anywhere fast, and will stick around through early next week. The cold blast is due to an extreme jet stream pattern we have seen before this winter--a sharp ridge of high pressure over California, and a large trough of low pressure over Eastern North America. This upper air pattern was described by the National Weather Service in Buffalo, New York on Tuesday as one that occurs less than once every 30 years in late February. The intense cold is already affecting the Upper Midwest this Wednesday morning. My vote for worst winter weather of the day goes to Central Minnesota at Alexandria, where a temperature of -8°F this morning combined with winds of 14 mph to make a wind chill of -28°. The winds are expected to increase to 25 - 30 mph Wednesday afternoon with higher gusts, creating blizzard conditions. In Chicago, the intense cold is expected to put the December - February average temperature for this winter below 19°, making the winter of 2013 - 2014 the 3rd coldest winter in the Windy City's history. Only the winters of 1978 - 1979 and 1903 - 1904 were colder.


Figure 1. Great Lake ice cover as seen on February 19, 2014, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. Ice cover on North America’s Great Lakes reached 88 percent in mid-February 2014—levels not observed since 1994. The average maximum ice extent since 1973 is just over 50 percent. It has surpassed 80 percent just five times in four decades. The lowest average ice extent occurred in 2002, when only 9.5 percent of the lakes froze. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Rain coming to California
Unlike previous versions of this extreme jet stream pattern, though, the ridge over the Western U.S. will not be very persistent. The ridge of high pressure over California, which brought numerous record high temperatures for the date on Tuesday, will get broken down by a weak low pressure system on Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday and Saturday, a more intense storm system will smash through the ridge, bringing moderate to heavy rain to much of drought-parched California. This storm will then track eastwards, potentially bringing a major snowstorm and destructive ice storm on Monday to Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average at 2 meters (6.6') as diagnosed by the GFS model at 00 UTC February 26, 2014. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) created a sharp kink in the jet stream (Figure 3), which allowed cold air to spill southwards out of the Arctic over the Eastern U.S. Compensating warm air flowed northwards into the Arctic underneath ridges of high pressure over Alaska and Europe. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.


Figure 3. Winds at a height where the pressure is 250 mb show the axis of the jet stream, seen here at 00 UTC February 26, 2014. A sharp trough of low pressure was present over the Eastern U.S., and unusually strong ridges of high pressure were over the Western U.S. and the North Atlantic. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.

Wanted: professionals willing to speak about climate change to local groups
If you are a professional or graduate student with a strong background in climate science, the world needs you to reach out to local audiences at schools, retirement homes, the Chamber of Commerce, etc., and share your expertise. A new initiative by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) and the United Nations Foundation called climatevoices.org is launching a Science Speakers Network this spring, with the goal of bringing scientists and their local communities together for real dialogue on climate science that speaks to citizens’ current and future well-being and responsibility as members of a community and democracy. Materials for context-setting presentations will be offered as will coaching regarding how to begin conversations about climate change with fellow citizens. If you are interested in volunteering for this network, please go to climatevoices.org and create a profile.  Profiles will “go public” when the full web site is launched in April. Once you create a profile, you will be kept up to date on Climate Voices progress including construction of the full web site, availability of presentation materials, webinar coaching, and plans for project launch. For any questions, please contact: Cindy Schmidt (UCAR), cschmidt@ucar.edu. I have my own set of slides I use for such talks that anyone is welcome to borrow from, available at http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2013/climatetalk.ppt.

Jeff Masters

Snowy Friday (Beaker)
After a major winter storm in the Twin Cities area, I spent Friday afternoon capturing a glimpse of the beauty left in the aftermath of the storm.
Snowy Friday

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 189 - 139

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Quoting 178. ScottLincoln:

But that's just it, Levi, the trend didn't flat line. You made a new trend, over a shorter period with frequent climate variability noise stronger than the signal.

You haven't demonstrated evidence to suggest that the climatic trend has changed in a meaningful way. In fact, the trend rate since 1975 has remained within the confidence interval of all subsequent trend start dates, right up to 2005:

HadCRUT, Cowtown & Way technique

I noticed that you chose your trend lines to begin in 2001. Again using HadCRUT (Cowtan & Way technique), we can use 2000 as a breakpoint and make a post-2000 trend prediction:


No evidence of a change in trend since 2000.
Quoting 167. ScottLincoln:

There has been an apparent slowing of the surface air temperatures over the last 10-15 years. It does not extend to the cryosphere or the oceans, which are larger storages of heat.
And when put into the context of the actual warming trend "pre-pause," there actually is no evidence of an actual pause:


"Does this mean global warming is slowing, nobody knows?"
That's just not accurate, Levi. We've discussed this before, you again have completely ignored the oceans and cryosphere to try and claim that there is some slowing in the heat accumulation. This is just not supported by the evidence when you look at the whole climate system.

You are right, a "30 year slowing" would be significant. Certainly no such "30 year slowing" exists when the evidence of slowing over a shorter period is not particularly strong.


Some of the "missing" heat may be due to volcanic activity.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I can tell you that the 2014 HS will surprise us !!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
winds gusting stronger here now by me.............

I can't believe that front is creating convection down there again. I got .32" for just light rain. It will be a lot more breezy after the front goes through...and colder too. My high of 52 occurred at midnight and the temperature is now 42. The winds are 15 mph with 22 mph gusts. The strange thing is that the high yesterday was 75 with north winds all day and now it's 42, still with north winds. I used to think I understood something about weather. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15282
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
185. yoboi
Quoting 183. luvtogolf:


When I first came to this blog I had questions about GW. I got called everything and bullied. Just for inquiring. It quickly turned me against them. So now I'm sarcastic. Funny thing is, I believe GW is happening. I can't deny the crazy weather that is happening across the globe. What I am not convinced is the percentage that man is impacting GW. We are playing a role, but I'm not sure how much.



About 10 %.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Local SWAN Model Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128331
Quoting 162. StormWx:


Don't let this person get under your skin, this person continuously belittles people on this blog and has so for years. And I am 100% sure said person would not meet the qualifications of becoming a speaker anyways, which really only makes this person an internet wannabe scientist. I see you've been a member on this site since 2002, good to see old timers still around.


When I first came to this blog I had questions about GW. I got called everything and bullied. Just for inquiring. It quickly turned me against them. So now I'm sarcastic. Funny thing is, I believe GW is happening. I can't deny the crazy weather that is happening across the globe. What I am not convinced is the percentage that man is impacting GW. We are playing a role, but I'm not sure how much.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
winds gusting stronger here now by me.............
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
When debating the Science in such depth, always default to da Market.


Heartland Meme # 4
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128331
Quoting 175. bjrabbit:


Your condolences aren't needed. But if they make you feel superior, super.

Given that explanations of these hocus theories are getting more twists in them than a pretzel...that tells me we are getting near the end. It is tantamount to when people buy stock in the stock market at the top of the bubble...their rationality is based totality on emotions, not reality.


There are no hocus theories. Research and publication is a discourse in a theoretical context. The slowdown in surface warming is being studied, the empirical evidence that explains this aspect of a very complex system is added to the theory.

Regardless, it does not have an impact on the basis of AGW which is a measured energy imbalance that has been empirically measured at the wavelength of greenhouse gases, most notably, CO2.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 157. Levi32:


When the trend flat-lines, it can be called a "pause." The length of that pause, as you pointed out, is what matters.

Later all.

But that's just it, Levi, the trend didn't flat line. You made a new trend, over a shorter period with frequent climate variability noise stronger than the signal.

You haven't demonstrated evidence to suggest that the climatic trend has changed in a meaningful way. In fact, the trend rate since 1975 has remained within the confidence interval of all subsequent trend start dates, right up to 2005:

HadCRUT, Cowtown & Way technique

I noticed that you chose your trend lines to begin in 2001. Again using HadCRUT (Cowtan & Way technique), we can use 2000 as a breakpoint and make a post-2000 trend prediction:


No evidence of a change in trend since 2000.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 162. StormWx:


Don't let this person get under your skin, this person continuously belittles people on this blog and has so for years. And I am 100% sure said person would not meet the qualifications of becoming a speaker anyways, which really only makes this person an internet wannabe scientist. I see you've been a member on this site since 2002, good to see old timers still around.


Thanks....I really like Dr Masters and his blogs...I just don't understand being so invested in something. I don't know how long I continue to hang in there...tough on the ole' blood pressue!!! Take care StormWx....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 153. Tropicsweatherpr:
Nino 3.4 is climbing slowly.Someone talked about the jaws theme lol.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 124. Birthmark:

A little help? Can you please point out the "pause" for me? TIA.



My condolences about your feelings on the rest.


Your condolences aren't needed. But if they make you feel superior, super.

Given that explanations of these hocus theories are getting more twists in them than a pretzel...that tells me we are getting near the end. It is tantamount to when people buy stock in the stock market at the top of the bubble...their rationality is based totality on emotions, not reality.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 172. ricderr:
The rain is about to sweep through Orlando.


severe?


Doesn't look like at this time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 96. TimSoCal:
Starting to look pretty wet.



Not seeing any action yet.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5817
The rain is about to sweep through Orlando.


severe?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The rain is about to sweep through Orlando.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 76. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hopefully this won't start any arguments, but I am ready to dodge tomatoes thrown at me.

Why is Anthropogenic Global Warming Denialism Important?

Posted by Greg Laden on June 28, 2011

And what do we do about it?


Global warming is for real, and it is important. Just as important is the fact that global warming is largely anthropogenic. Global warming is important because conditions for life on the planet are changing due to warming as well as other changes caused by the release of fossil carbon into the atmosphere, in ways that will have, on balance, negative impacts; That it is anthropogenic is important because this means we have identified a cause of an important negative effect and thus could potentially curtail it. The anthropogenic nature of global warming is also important for another reason: It provides a test case. Can humanity handle a problem of this magnitude, that it has created for itself, with sufficient speed to curtail the worse consequences? Or not?

It has been said that global warming is a mixed bag: For some it will be bad, for others it will be good. This is a myth. Global warming is on balance bad, and it is mostly bad. Never mind the extra CO2 in the atmosphere that plants like, and which would increase agricultural productivity. Plants do not produce more tissue, fruit, grain, or what have you in direct proportion to the CO2 in the atmosphere. A little, yes, but after a small increase in productivity more CO2 does not increase productivity. The small amount of productivity is offset by the negative consequences of global warming.

It may be that the most significant impact of “global warming” will actually be not in atmospheric temperature change, but rather, in the change of ocean chemistry caused by absorption of extra CO2. If ocean chemistry changes in a way that some models predict, it will become difficult for several kinds of small marine organisms to build their shells. Many of these organisms reside at or near the base of the marine food chain. Some also serve, collectively, as one of the primary means by which atmospheric CO2 is broken down to produce atmospheric oxygen. Collectively, they are one (and an important one) of several “lungs of the, planet.” In the worse case, which may or may not happen, oxygen may become noticeably depleted in our atmosphere, and food supplies may be negativelhy affected.

The situation will probably eventually resolve itself. A widespread oxygen-breathing organism causes the oxygen-producing system to fail and disrupts its own food chain. The oxygen-breathing organism then goes extinct (taking numerous other species with it). Eventually, oxygen-producing systems re-develop, food chains adjust, and something like present-day conditions return, and since the oxygen-breathing organism that caused the problem to begin with has gone extinct, things would be back to something that passes for normal for a while.

If you are an anthropogenic global warming denialist, you can count yourself as partly responsible for such a calamity. You probably won’t live to see the worst consequences because you are old (most AGW denialists are grumpy old men). You may want to write a letter to your grandchildren, who will suffer these consequences, explaining your role in creating their misery. Just sayin’

What does AGW denialism look like?

It looks like a lot of things.

It looks like anonymous Internet cranks shouting at other people for not being real scientists.

It looks like people shouting about alarmism.

It looks like faux journalists seeking a “balanced view” that gives “both sides” of “the debate.”

It looks like web sites pretending to be valid science-oriented resources faking data and making stuff up, and Internet trolls dropping links to those sites wherever possible to (mis)direct people to them.

How do we address it?

Call them on it, every time they open their mouths. Demand explanations for their motives (which is something to think about, by the way). If you are a blogger and they comment on your blog, you need not be intimidated by screechy references to the “First Amendment” … just delete their blaterhing or change their links to point to the web site of the Spam Museum, a major Minnesota Attraction. Or whatever.

When you have friends or colleagues who seem to show leanings towards AGW denialism, show them clearly that you do not take them seriously, indicate subtly that their credibility is at stake, politely give them links to sites like Real Climate where actual climate scientists talk about actual climate science. Do not vote for, and always vote against, politicians who are denialists. Yes, yes, I’m suggesting that Anthropogenic Climate Change is a “litmus test” issue, because it is. And the litmus test is not only a political one … it is also a test of ocean acidity, which has increased by an average of 30% with the release of fossil carbon to date, and which is expected to reach 150% by 2100, which, in turn, is probably beyond one or more thresholds of disaster.

When you look upon a global warming denialist, you are not seeing a person who is deluded, wrong, misinformed, or misguided. You are seeing a person who is intent on killing your grandchildren. You may want to treat them politely, you may want to be a dick to them. Do whatever works. But don’t let them think for a second that you do not know what the consequences of their actions are. Don’t let them get away with it.

Link


Good points GT. There is really now balance to reporting for real. It is all FAUX news and the Koch Brothers making a case for doing nothing but letting them make a lot of money. They will all crawl into their bunkers when the sh-t hits the fan and watch as everyone else bears the brunt of their greed and lies. I'm of the opinion that we can do little to stop the changes already in place as the feedback loops on most of them are already tipped the wrong way. It is more a matter of survival of the human species and most of the other biologic species on this planet that we are extincting at a rapid rate (Read the Sixth Extinction).

There seems so little we can do at this point. We could stop emitting greenhouse gases today and the amount in the atmosphere would still take many generations to change.

I'm already old and unless I get that robot body and computer brain won't see most of this occur. But my children, grandchildren, and someday, great-grandchildren will suffer the consequences.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FWIW, the UAH trend over the entire record is 0.138 +/- 0.069 C per decade, giving a lower bound of 0.069 C per decade

The UAH trend since, say, 1998, is 0.062 +/- 0.221 C per decade, giving an upper bound of 0.283 C per decade.

The trends and their uncertainties overlap. So there is no statistical evidence of a pause or plateau.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
168. NCstu
Quoting 158. StormTrackerScott:
How's 995mb sound over Charlotte, NC on the 12Z Euro at 204hrs. Geesh. Euro is showing one hell of an active southern jet next week with an Arctic airmass in place this looks to be a lot of fun coming for the SE US,

that sounds terrible actually. Charlotte is a much more pleasant place to live when the weather is nice.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 136. Levi32:


There has been a dramatic slowing of the warming trend over the last 10-14 years. This is a fact. You did not show a trend for less than a 30-year period. Does this mean global warming is actually slowing? Nobody knows. A 30-year slowing would be more significant.

This is the "pause."


There has been an apparent slowing of the surface air temperatures over the last 10-15 years. It does not extend to the cryosphere or the oceans, which are larger storages of heat.
And when put into the context of the actual warming trend "pre-pause," there actually is no evidence of an actual pause:


"Does this mean global warming is slowing, nobody knows?"
That's just not accurate, Levi. We've discussed this before, you again have completely ignored the oceans and cryosphere to try and claim that there is some slowing in the heat accumulation. This is just not supported by the evidence when you look at the whole climate system.

You are right, a "30 year slowing" would be significant. Certainly no such "30 year slowing" exists when the evidence of slowing over a shorter period is not particularly strong.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good afternoon everyone. It has been a chilly and damp day here in the Austin area. Temps gradually fell during the early morning hours and our high today so far has been lower than last night's recorded low. Currently it is in the mid to upper 30s, whereas two days ago it was in the mid 80s. Fingers crossed that we are done with any sub-freezing temps for the season and I can get my garden going again :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 161. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The freezing line is located far to the northwest though. It's just boring rain.


A storm center over CLT would mean thunderstorms for you guys.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 160. Xulonn:
Isn't that actually a mid-range noise signal, in the big picture, Levi?

I consider you one of the brightest people here, Levi and greatly respect your contributions to tropical weather forecasting, especially your graphics. You are without peer here.

However, you just posted one step on the escalator.



I'm more of a 'numbers' man.

Global average decadal temperature anomaly, base period 1951-80. Source NASA GISS.

1981-90 0.20C
1991-00 0.32C
2001-10 0.55C

Figure for 2011-13 is 0.58C. This is a 'flatline'?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 157. Levi32:


When the trend flat-lines, it can be called a "pause." The length of that pause, as you pointed out, is what matters.

My point is that you should not be abruptly shutting someone down for bringing up a fact. Give them context, sure, but the "debate" here borders on vitriol daily. This goes for many on this blog. You don't help science by doing this - my two cents.

Later all.

When someone aggressively posts about a non-existent "pause" and proceeds to libel climate scientists, I'm a little reluctant to worry too much if they were treated a bit roughly. They earned it, imo.

Now, if someone who asks a genuine question in a non-aggressive, non-accusatory manner is roughed up, I'll be right there beside you protesting such unwarranted and unnecessary treatment.

And that's my two-cents.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bjrabbit:


Amazing...just because I disagree with you, you can assume something about me. You guys are sharp.

Bert


Don't let this person get under your skin, this person continuously belittles people on this blog and has so for years. And I am 100% sure said person would not meet the qualifications of becoming a speaker anyways, which really only makes this person an internet wannabe scientist. I see you've been a member on this site since 2002, good to see old timers still around.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 158. StormTrackerScott:
How's 995mb sound over Charlotte, NC on the 12Z Euro at 204hrs. Geesh. Euro is showing one hell of an active southern jet next week with an Arctic airmass in place this looks to be a lot of fun coming for the SE US,


The freezing line is located far to the northwest though. It's just boring rain.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32068
Quoting 136. Levi32:


There has been a dramatic slowing of the warming trend over the last 10-14 years. This is a fact. You did not show a trend for less than a 30-year period. Does this mean global warming is actually slowing? Nobody knows. A 30-year slowing would be more significant.

This is the "pause."

Isn't that actually a mid-range noise signal, in the big picture, Levi?

I consider you one of the brightest people here, Levi and greatly respect your contributions to tropical weather forecasting, especially your graphics. You are without peer here.

However, you just posted one step on the escalator.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 158. StormTrackerScott:
How's 995mb sound over Charlotte, NC on the 12Z Euro at 204hrs. Geesh. Euro is showing one hell of an active southern jet next week with an Arctic airmass in place this looks to be a lot of fun coming for the SE US,



Agree. However, still a bit far out but it does look to be active.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
How's 995mb sound over Charlotte, NC on the 12Z Euro at 204hrs. Geesh. Euro is showing one hell of an active southern jet next week with an Arctic airmass in place this looks to be a lot of fun coming for the SE US,

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 144. Birthmark:

Slowing is not a "pause". It is a reduction in the upward trend. Such a reduction in the last 10-14 years is rather extraordinary --but for the opposite reason that many think. Given the relatively cooler temps in the Pacific over that time, the lowest solar activity in 100 years, and a few other less important factors we should have seen outright cooling over that time frame. Instead, we see warming.

It should also be pointed out that 10-14 years isn't climate. It is a wiggle within climate. Such wiggles cannot be shown to have any real meaning within the context of climate. Weather still happens and CO2 isn't the only driver of climate, let alone weather.



When the trend flat-lines, it can be called a "pause." The length of that pause, as you pointed out, is what matters.

My point is that you should not be abruptly shutting someone down for bringing up a fact. Give them context, sure, but the "debate" here borders on vitriol daily. This goes for many on this blog. You don't help science by doing this - my two cents.

Later all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 154. WaterWitch11:
Prospectors Say Drought Has Created California%u2019s 2nd Gold Rush

Link


noun: gold; symbol: Au; plural noun: golds

a yellow precious metal, the chemical element of atomic number 79, valued esp. for use in jewelry and decoration, and to guarantee the value of currencies.





Easy Jethro, watch the water temp.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128331
The other side?



Go ahead, present your reviewed knowledge or case for what is driving the warming,the Glacial and Arctic melt, and the migrations noted as well.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128331
Prospectors Say Drought Has Created California’s 2nd Gold Rush

Link


noun: gold; symbol: Au; plural noun: golds

a yellow precious metal, the chemical element of atomic number 79, valued esp. for use in jewelry and decoration, and to guarantee the value of currencies.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1612
Nino 3.4 is climbing slowly.Someone talked about the jaws theme lol.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 94. NCstu:
Yes, Jennifer Francis said that there will be extreme cold and extreme warm this winter. Total win for Jennifer Francis. Some on here have alternatingly been completely wrong and completely right on this winter.



Quoting 86. Neapolitan:
But there were many such predictions, including right here in this forum. Perhaps not specifics: "February will be one of the coldest on record for Chicago". But some spoke of the possibility that Dr. Jennifer Francis' theory of wonky jet stream behavior due to the relatively sudden disappearance of the Arctic ice might possibly induce more-or-less persistent cold in some NH locations, and more-or-less persistent warmth in others.

That, of course, is precisely what has happened.



For one, there are extremes of cold and warm in just about any winter one chooses to look at so a generalization such as "there will be extreme cold and warm this winter" is pretty much a forecast anyone can make.

Secondly, while Francis may have correctly predicted extremes of cold and warmth this winter, if she was making such predictions based on her paper published in 2012, she was correct for the wrong reasons. Observations she cites in her paper (weaker zonal winds/positive high-latitude 500mb anomalies (beginning in autumn)/enhanced ridging in eastern north Atlantic, etc.) resultant from loss of sea-ice during the summer season yielding her conclusions all didn't happen this winter. In fact, what happened was quite the opposite -- stronger zonal winds/negative high-latitude anomalies in autumn/deep troughing in eastern north Atlantic.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Small Volcanic Eruptions Add to Larger Impact on Climate

I'm not sure how believable that is, but it's one explanation out of many to explain the slowdown in rising surface temperatures for the past decade and a half or so.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32068
Quoting 100. ricderr:
Strong 2014 Hurricane Season Predicted: by Company with Best Predictions Record Past 5 Years
Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), a leading hurricane and climate cycle Prediction Company, and the only organization that was correct in predicting the weak 2013 season
...
Mr. Dilley says that what makes GWO a standout from other organizations is their commitment to research and development of GWO’s Climate Pulse Technology (CPT) that incorporates climate cycle mechanisms that control the rhythm of weather cycles. Research over the past 25 years has found that each of the Atlantic and Gulf coastal zones have varying weather cycles, and within each cycle, there exists smaller weather cycles which make each zone unique. Once all of the cycles are discovered, Dilley then uses the Climate Pulse Technology to accurately assess the intensity of a future hurricane season, and the probability risk for hurricane or tropical storm conditions within a prediction zone for that year.

Climate Pulse Techno...what? Sounds exactly like curve fitting by another name. Hopefully they will be providing a write-up on the technique to a peer-reviewed journal soon. At least they are willing to provide predictions based upon their curve-fitting cycles hypothesis. That will allow for actual verification.
Quoting 100. ricderr:

The prediction of Sandy, a high-impact hybrid storm was made 3 years in advance, and Irene 2 years in advance.

Grade A Balogney.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCstu:
Here is his incredibly bold prediction:


"Prediction Summary - In July of 2012, California will enter a three year window for PFM induced​ increased earthquake activity. The window is centered on the period December 2013 to March 2014. There is an overall 90% risk for a major to strong earthquake (6.4 to 8 magnitude) during this period, a 75% risk for a major (7 to 8 magnitude) earthquake, and a 40% risk for a severe 7.5 to 8 magnitude earthquake. Note that the risk for a major earthquake is very much above the long-term risk. The highest predicted risk of(75%) for a major earthquake is from July 2013 to July 2014, with the greatest and most likely risk period​ being December 2013 into March 2014."

Arf! He made that up. "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM)"...there ain't any such thing except in his mind. Not mention "Lunisolar Precession" and "2013 is Year 1 of Global Cooling - Global Cooling Now in Place for the Next 130 Years". This guy is a nut case masquerading as a weather and seismic specialist. Speaking of nut cases, check out this outfit, where he was a keynote speaker.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15282
This is so "sandbox'ish" of the Weather Channel..I wonder if they got all those switches from Direct TV to other subscribers..

In one of the latest volleys in the carriage battle between Weather Channel and DirecTV, Weather has asked the FCC to investigate the quality of WeatherNation's closed captioning, tying it to the "irresponsible" decision by DirecTV to carry WeatherNation.

The satellite operator essentially replaced Weather Channel with WeatherNation after failing to reach a carriage agreement with the former. Weather Channel has been off DirecTV since Jan. 13.

In a letter to the commission dated Feb. 7, Weather Channel conceded that it started monitoring WeatherNation captions because of the dispute with DirecTV. It also conceded that captioning "fast-moving" weather can be a challenge and it may make its own mistakes "from time to time."

But it charged that WeatherNation captions--which it does not fail to emphasize are "transmitted on DirecTV"--are "so inaccurate that they nearly defy description."
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15300
Quoting 136. Levi32:


There has been a dramatic slowing of the warming trend over the last 10-14 years. This is a fact. You did not show a trend for less than a 30-year period. Does this mean global warming is actually slowing? Nobody knows. A 30-year slowing would be more significant.

This is the "pause."



Global average decadal temperature anomaly, base period 1951-80. Source NASA GISS.

1981-90 0.20C
1991-00 0.32C
2001-10 0.55C

Figure for 2011-13 is 0.58C. Doesn't look like a 'dramatic slowing' to me.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 122. Neapolitan:
Shorter version: "I don't like science. It's scary."

See all the letters you could have saved yourself from typing? ;-)


Amazing...just because I disagree with you, you can assume something about me. You guys are sharp.

It is so easy to say science is settled when you ignore arguments that don't jive with your belief systems.

If this blog was a baseball game, if you scored a run, you would declare "game over" because you don't offer the other side a try...risking you might lose.

AGW theory has nothing to do with science...it has to do with control, money and ultimate power.

Bert
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The whole silly warming pause, warming hiatus thing
By: Dr. Ricky Rood, 11:26 PM CST on February 20, 2014


In Figure 1, the warming pause is the leveling off of the rise in temperature after that big peak in the late 1990s, about 1998 to be precise. The blue shaded area is the temperature taken from an ensemble of models reported in the IPCC reports.

My climate-change course does not rely on equations, but I contend that it%u2019s solidly anchored in science-based reasoning. I broke my students into groups and I asked for an analysis of the graph in Figure 1. After about 15 minutes, they came up with a list of items that needed to be addressed. One item on the list was that given the very definition climate as a 30-year average, did it make sense to look at a 10-year trend? There were questions if the surface-temperature measurements were distributed properly to sample the warming in the Arctic. There were even questions about the objectivity of the chart maker. These are basic questions of scientific method.

There was another line of questions about whether the sunspot cycle might have an influence and if there had been changes related to reflection from aerosols, the particles in the atmosphere that absorb and reflect energy. These are ways the energy budget might be altered. There were questions of internal variability, especially that big spike in 1998, a known large El Nino warming. Shouldn%u2019t that variability be removed so that a trend might be more confidently isolated? Could the ocean be a buffer? Are the models expected to represent El Nino and other types of internal variability on a case-by-case basis?

These are science-based questions. They pose no challenge to the entirety of the climate-science knowledge base.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128331
Quoting 136. Levi32:


There has been a dramatic slowing of the warming trend over the last 10-14 years. This is a fact. You did not show a trend for less than a 30-year period. Does this mean global warming is actually slowing? Nobody knows. A 30-year slowing would be more significant.

This is the "slowing."


Slowing is not a "pause". It is a reduction in the upward trend. Such a reduction in the last 10-14 years is rather extraordinary --but for the opposite reason that many think. Given the relatively cooler temps in the Pacific over that time, the lowest solar activity in 100 years, and a few other less important factors we should have seen outright cooling over that time frame. Instead, we see warming.

It should also be pointed out that 10-14 years isn't climate. It is a wiggle within climate. Such wiggles cannot be shown to have any real meaning within the context of climate. Weather still happens and CO2 isn't the only driver of climate, let alone weather.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 120. presslord:
'blogquote'>Quoting 110. hydrus:
It was said that some of the bad guys are making there way into law enforcement despite psych screens and background checks...Not good.



Short Range Forecast


"...every cop is a criminal...and all the sinners, saints..."

Greetings Press.There is truth in your words of wisdom, but not every cop is a criminal, not every sinner is a saint. They are people, some with more bad than good and vice versa. This has either been predetermined already before we were created, or will be determined when we leave..It all works in the end.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 136. Levi32:


There has been a dramatic slowing of the warming trend over the last 10-14 years. This is a fact. You did not show a trend for less than a 30-year period. Does this mean global warming is actually slowing? Nobody knows. A 30-year slowing would be more significant.

This is the "slowing."



To be completely accurate a slow down in surface warming is only part of the entire energy equation, when taken in context with ocean heating, the warming has not paused at all. Link

*Not directed at you, Levi*, but I find it disingenuous at best to only use surface temperature as a metric for measuring the overall energy imbalance of the system. For instance, an el nino event would certainly change those short term trends drastically.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 135. Andrebrooks:
I think the Weather channel will be back on DirecTV on March 1st, 2014 at midnight.Since the keeptheweatherchannel.com site is gone, I think they will be back.

No. The Weather Channel has all but ended their attempts at getting back on DirecTV. WeatherNation looks permanent.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32068
Please share this for it is very important that the "word" gets out to the hearing impaired on severe weather alerts, and it ain't happening like it should.


You see, by DirecTV dropping TWC the hearing impaired are already feeling the consequences.

FCC's new closed captioning rules had long journey
FCC rules aimed at stopping inaccurate closed captioning took ten years to become a reality. New FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler made it a priority of his regime.


"Five wins and a very light power reese know" sounds more like gibberish than a weather forecast.


But that was the closed caption that hearing-impaired people got during a report from the WeatherNation channel last month. What the caption was supposed to say was, "high winds and a very light, powdery snow."
Closed captioning is designed to help the deaf and hearing-impaired enjoy television and receive important news and weather reports.

Unfortunately, captions are often riddled with typos and incomplete sentences that leave viewers struggling to make sense of what is being said.
ON LOCATION: Where the cameras roll
"It's frustrating," said Cheryl Simpson, a hearing-impaired Norfolk, Va., resident who often has to rely on her husband to tell her what's happening on the screen.

During emergency news alerts, she said, "The stuff you see on the crawl does not match what they are saying."
Tom Wheeler agrees. On Thursday, the Federal Communications Commission chairman issued new rules that the regulatory agency hopes will improve closed captioning, which is mandated by the 1996 Telecommunications Act.
"Something needs to be done," Wheeler said of the current state of closed captioning.
The FCC will require that captions match spoken words in dialogue and convey background noises and other sounds to the fullest extent possible, according to agency officials familiar with the order.

The order will also mandate that captions not block other content on the screen, overlap one another, run off the edge of the video screen or be blocked by other information.
The bar will be slightly lower for news, sports and other programming that airs live as opposed to entertainment programming that is completed weeks before airing.
However, the agency still wants improvement on the often sloppy captioning that accompanies live programming.
At the FCC meeting, Claude Stout, executive director of Telecommunications for the Deaf and Hard of Hearing, stressed the need for better captioning of news programming.
"One of the most frightening moments for my wife and I was the sniper shootings that took place in late 2002," Stout said, using sign language. "Local stations in my area showed breaking news on the latest developments, but they were not captioned. We felt trapped and helpless."

The first TV programming ever to feature captioning was the PBS cooking show "The French Chef" with Julia Child in 1972. But closed captioning didn't become commonplace until the 1990s.
And even when it became a requirement in 1996, the FCC didn't foresee the need for any sort of quality control requirements for the industry.
"The lack of consistency in the quality of TV captioning demonstrates that the original assumptions that the marketplace would ensure quality captions have not borne out," said Karen Peltz Strauss, deputy of the FCC's Consumer and Governmental Affairs Bureau.


Wheeler not only expressed frustration about the current state of closed captioning, but he also wasn't happy with how long it took the agency to act on concerns about it.
The FCC was first asked to address the state of closed captioning a decade ago and issued a notice of proposed rules to try to improve the situation in 2005. The matter has pretty much been in limbo until Wheeler, who was sworn in as chairman last November, made it a priority.

"Ten years is too slow a pace," Wheeler said at the meeting, and then signed, "This is only the beginning."
The majority of closed captioning is outsourced by TV stations and broadcast and cable networks. Jill Toschi, vice president for operations at the National Captioning Institute, said the FCC's actions are a "very positive step" and send a "strong message that caption producers need to be committed quality."

Wheeler promised that the FCC won't forget about this issue going forward.
"We'll keep pace with how it's working," he said.
Could the FCC issue fines to anyone falling short of their expectations?
"We'll see," Wheeler said.

joe.flint@latimes.com
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128331
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128331

Viewing: 189 - 139

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.