New Blast of Cold Air Invades Midwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on February 26, 2014

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A frigid blast of Arctic air will bring some of the coldest late February temperatures seen in decades to the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. this week, with temperatures 15 - 30° below normal commonplace. The cold air isn't going anywhere fast, and will stick around through early next week. The cold blast is due to an extreme jet stream pattern we have seen before this winter--a sharp ridge of high pressure over California, and a large trough of low pressure over Eastern North America. This upper air pattern was described by the National Weather Service in Buffalo, New York on Tuesday as one that occurs less than once every 30 years in late February. The intense cold is already affecting the Upper Midwest this Wednesday morning. My vote for worst winter weather of the day goes to Central Minnesota at Alexandria, where a temperature of -8°F this morning combined with winds of 14 mph to make a wind chill of -28°. The winds are expected to increase to 25 - 30 mph Wednesday afternoon with higher gusts, creating blizzard conditions. In Chicago, the intense cold is expected to put the December - February average temperature for this winter below 19°, making the winter of 2013 - 2014 the 3rd coldest winter in the Windy City's history. Only the winters of 1978 - 1979 and 1903 - 1904 were colder.


Figure 1. Great Lake ice cover as seen on February 19, 2014, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. Ice cover on North America’s Great Lakes reached 88 percent in mid-February 2014—levels not observed since 1994. The average maximum ice extent since 1973 is just over 50 percent. It has surpassed 80 percent just five times in four decades. The lowest average ice extent occurred in 2002, when only 9.5 percent of the lakes froze. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Rain coming to California
Unlike previous versions of this extreme jet stream pattern, though, the ridge over the Western U.S. will not be very persistent. The ridge of high pressure over California, which brought numerous record high temperatures for the date on Tuesday, will get broken down by a weak low pressure system on Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday and Saturday, a more intense storm system will smash through the ridge, bringing moderate to heavy rain to much of drought-parched California. This storm will then track eastwards, potentially bringing a major snowstorm and destructive ice storm on Monday to Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average at 2 meters (6.6') as diagnosed by the GFS model at 00 UTC February 26, 2014. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) created a sharp kink in the jet stream (Figure 3), which allowed cold air to spill southwards out of the Arctic over the Eastern U.S. Compensating warm air flowed northwards into the Arctic underneath ridges of high pressure over Alaska and Europe. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.


Figure 3. Winds at a height where the pressure is 250 mb show the axis of the jet stream, seen here at 00 UTC February 26, 2014. A sharp trough of low pressure was present over the Eastern U.S., and unusually strong ridges of high pressure were over the Western U.S. and the North Atlantic. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.

Wanted: professionals willing to speak about climate change to local groups
If you are a professional or graduate student with a strong background in climate science, the world needs you to reach out to local audiences at schools, retirement homes, the Chamber of Commerce, etc., and share your expertise. A new initiative by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) and the United Nations Foundation called climatevoices.org is launching a Science Speakers Network this spring, with the goal of bringing scientists and their local communities together for real dialogue on climate science that speaks to citizens’ current and future well-being and responsibility as members of a community and democracy. Materials for context-setting presentations will be offered as will coaching regarding how to begin conversations about climate change with fellow citizens. If you are interested in volunteering for this network, please go to climatevoices.org and create a profile.  Profiles will “go public” when the full web site is launched in April. Once you create a profile, you will be kept up to date on Climate Voices progress including construction of the full web site, availability of presentation materials, webinar coaching, and plans for project launch. For any questions, please contact: Cindy Schmidt (UCAR), cschmidt@ucar.edu. I have my own set of slides I use for such talks that anyone is welcome to borrow from, available at http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2013/climatetalk.ppt.

Jeff Masters

Snowy Friday (Beaker)
After a major winter storm in the Twin Cities area, I spent Friday afternoon capturing a glimpse of the beauty left in the aftermath of the storm.
Snowy Friday

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some heavy rain in this system...........
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Having watched both at length, I would rather have TWC back. I don't think WeatherNation is equipped to handle a big event like a tornado outbreak or landfalling hurricane. Their technology is far inferior to TWCs, and most of the time, they're on a 3-hour loop (so you're not getting your latest weather). I'm with you in thinking TWCs shows are useless, but they're the best (barring local news) at covering big events.

Yes, WeatherNation is behind TWC in technology, which is to be expected for a startup. Thier website is pretty good, and I don't have to wade through stories of dolphin rescues and guys who claim to be magnetic to find it. :-) WeatherNation is catching up quickly in the technology department and they still remain focused on weather. During our last ice and snow event, they did a much better job than our local stations. Now, that's not saying much, but still...I think TWC should be looking over their shoulder.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15269
Quoting 228. ncstorm:


When Jesus come back it wont be to complain about the planet that I can assure you..

I will be praying for you though..


We got publicly called out:) Maybe when Jesus comes back I'll get to play a round of golf with him. I'll probably shoot my best score ever that day.
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Quoting 191. CuriousAboutClimate:


supported only by your lies and not a single shred of evidence, because you are a blatant liar.
Talk like that may get you a ban on Dr. Master's blog - but thanks for telling the truth.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128318
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yes that big Blob is headed right for us............
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wind power density animation
earth model
Link
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Nothing happening yet, 63F here. Barstow looks like it is getting creamed though.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5817
Quoting 193. StormTrackerScott:
California is in for a lot of rain the next couple of days. 2" to 4" in Los Angeles is not to shabby.

Can you imagine how slippery those freeways are gonna be!
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earth mosel has added new layers update your links

Wind |

wind speed at specified height


Temp |

temperature at specified height


TPW (Total Precipitable Water) |

total amount of water in a column of air
stretching from ground to space

|


RH relative humidity
AD air density
WPD wind power density


TCW (Total Cloud Water)
total amount of water in clouds
in a column of air from ground to space


MSLP (Mean Sea Level Pressure) |

air pressure reduced to sea level

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Quoting 198. Xyrus2000:


You're wasting your time. People like luvtogolf and ncstorm have demonstrated on multiple occasions that they know nothing about the science and also don't want to know. It doesn't matter how much research, papers, and data you have to back up your position you will never, ever convince them of anything. Jesus himself could come down from the heavens on a sunbeam, stand before these people and say, "Hey. You're messing up the planet my father created for you to live on. Stop it." and their response would be, "Go away you tree-huggin' communist hippy before we nail you to an oil derrick."

Spend your time educating those that actually want to be educated. It's more rewarding. :)


When Jesus come back it wont be to complain about the planet that I can assure you..

I will be praying for you though..
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Quoting 217. LargoFl:
yeah hope it doesnt break up like they usually do huh


I know - frustrating. This one is holding together. It will be interesting to see what we get after this line pushes through. There is more widespread rain out there. Not sure if it will overspread us or maybe just to our South.
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Quoting yonzabam:
Is California prone to flash flooding? 6" falling on hard, dry ground in the mountains seems ominous.

Yes, it is, but the dry ground isn't as much a problem as the hillsides in burn areas, at least in southern California. The main problem in northern California is mainstem river flooding ad the soils get saturated. So far, at least, this doesn't look like a general flooding worry. The 6 inches you refer to may occur in very isolated spots in the Big Sur area. 1" to 2" looks more likely in the valleys.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15269
Therefore, any scientific result that isn't in your favor is immediately invalid.

We call that, the "Krauthammer" effect.







Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128318
Another forest fire ignites in the dry southern part of Puerto Rico.

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12Z ecmwf gives me 2 big rain events...both look too marginal for severe weather so far
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Quoting 220. sar2401:

I have both WeatherNation and TWC on my cable system. TWC is more entertaining if I'm looking for, say, 12 hours straight of "Freaks of Nature" and find Al Roker a really good weather person/entertainer. TWC apparently thinks that Locals on 8's is really enough weather information for anyone. WeatherNation, OTOH, is kind of boring unless there's real weather here. They actually cover it in real time and, so far, I haven't seen a guy on steroids out in the rain getting blown around. If I had to lose one channel, TWC would be my choice.

Having watched both at length, I would rather have TWC back. I don't think WeatherNation is equipped to handle a big event like a tornado outbreak or landfalling hurricane. Their technology is far inferior to TWCs, and most of the time, they're on a 3-hour loop (so you're not getting your latest weather). I'm with you in thinking TWCs shows are useless, but they're the best (barring local news) at covering big events.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32067
tampa nws.........MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NATURE COAST TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
ADVANCES SOUTHEAST INTO LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES. THIS IS ALL
HANDLED WELL IN THE GRIDS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST.

WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WE ARE CURRENTLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS...
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. SECOND...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
35 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 850MBS THIS AFTERNOON WITH 50 KNOT
WESTERLY WINDS AT 600MBS. WHILE THE OVERALL CAPE WILL BE
LOW...THERE COULD BE SHALLOW ZONE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE
SURFACE THROUGH 900MBS OR SO DUE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING. ANY
STORMS THAT FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS WILL
BE ROOTED AT THE SURFACE AND COULD BE QUITE EFFECTIVE AT
TRANSPORTING MOMENTUM TO THE GROUND. THE MOST LIKELY INITIATION
AREA WILL BE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE
WITH THE ADVANCING MCS.

&&

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. The Weather Channel has all but ended their attempts at getting back on DirecTV. WeatherNation looks permanent.

I have both WeatherNation and TWC on my cable system. TWC is more entertaining if I'm looking for, say, 12 hours straight of "Freaks of Nature" and find Al Roker a really good weather person/entertainer. TWC apparently thinks that Locals on 8's is really enough weather information for anyone. WeatherNation, OTOH, is kind of boring unless there's real weather here. They actually cover it in real time and, so far, I haven't seen a guy on steroids out in the rain getting blown around. If I had to lose one channel, TWC would be my choice.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15269
jrfl..we just may get that big blob out in the gulf later...oh oh GRO heard the blob alert.........
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Is California prone to flash flooding? 6" falling on hard, dry ground in the mountains seems ominous.
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Quoting 212. jrweatherman:


About to get me here in Clearwater. Line is pretty thin though.
yeah hope it doesnt break up like they usually do huh
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Quoting 180. Patrap:
When debating the Science in such depth, always default to da Market.


Heartland Meme # 4


General rule of business:

The scientific validity of a result is inversely proportional to the negative impacts the result has on your bottom line raised to the 99th power.

Therefore, any scientific result that isn't in your favor is immediately invalid.
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Tampa Please lower the shields lol.............
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San Francisco, CA (KMUX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

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Yep. They better get a lot of snow over the next 6 weeks because their rainy season is over. The saving grace could be a strong El Nino next winter? Let's see how it pans out.




if they could get enough to bring their resevoirs to at least 70 percent of capacity they would be ok for the year.....and no...i doubt that will happen...but i'll wishcast it to happen.....as for next year...i would tend to agree...hopefully cal and the southwest will end their droughts
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21639
Quoting 209. LargoFl:
yep almost to my area a lil later..


About to get me here in Clearwater. Line is pretty thin though.
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CALIFORNIA..been awhile since you folks had this kind of forecast huh..................
...STORMY WEATHER WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...

A COUPLE OF WINTER STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY... BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...
GUSTY WINDS... HIGH ELEVATION SNOW... AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. THE FIRST STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TOMORROW... FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE SECOND STORM FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

LIGHT RAIN BEGAN IN SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST INTO VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM .50 TO 1.00 INCH ACROSS
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS TO 1.00 TO 2.00 INCHES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS
AND MOUNTAINS...EXCEPT LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 3.00 INCHES ACROSS
FAVORED SOUTH FACING SLOPES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RELATIVELY
HIGH... REMAINING ABOVE 7500 FEET TODAY THEN DROPPING TO AROUND
6500 FEET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE SECOND STORM WILL BE STRONGER AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SPREAD QUICKLY INTO VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SECOND STORM SYSTEM OVER MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF INTENSE RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND STORM COULD BE VERY IMPRESSIVE.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS... WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG FAVORED SOUTH
FACING SLOPES.

SNOW LEVELS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE 7000 FEET BUT WILL DROP DOWN
TO AROUND 5000 TO 5500 FEET BY SATURDAY. THE MOUNTAINS COULD
RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND WINTER
STORM CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

ONE AREA OF SPECIAL CONCERN WITH THE SECOND STORM WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING WITH MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN AND
AROUND RECENT BURN AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN THE COLBY AND MADISON BURN
AREAS. RESIDENTS LOCATED NEAR BURN AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEMS...INCLUDING UPDATED
FORECASTS...STATEMENTS... AND POSSIBLE ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS.

$$
KJ/DG
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Quoting 207. StormTrackerScott:
Rain is starting here and this looks like a 1" to 2" soaking coming our way.

yep almost to my area a lil later..
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Quoting 202. ricderr:
Going to dump a lot of snow in the mountains.



and that is where it is important.....everything in LA with the exception of watering lawns....will drain to the pacific and not alleviate the drought


Yep. They better get a lot of snow over the next 6 weeks because their rainy season is over. The saving grace could be a strong El Nino next winter? Let's see how it pans out.
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Rain is starting here and this looks like a 1" to 2" soaking coming our way.

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Headline for the Day!
Can giant walls protect the USA from tornadoes?
Doyle Rice, USA TODAY 9:45 a.m. EST February 26, 2014
The walls would need to be about 1,000 feet high and 150 feet wide....
"If we build three east-west great walls in the American Midwest .... one in North Dakota, one along the border between Kansas and Oklahoma to the east, and the third one in south Texas and Louisiana, we will diminish the tornado threats in the Tornado Alley forever," according to physicist Rongjia Tao of Temple University.
Link
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Quoting 203. StormTrackerScott:


I think Winter was 2 weeks in January. Looks like no freeze in Orlando in 2014. Last Freeze in Orlando was in early March 2013. You can tell too as the bugs are out of control for so early in the year especially mosquito's due to the wet Winter thus far.
yeah sure seems that way..
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wow cold comes way down on sunday........
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Quoting 199. LargoFl:
winter doesnt last long here huh...........


I think Winter was 2 weeks in January. Looks like no freeze in Orlando in 2014. Last Freeze in Orlando was in early March 2013. You can tell too as the bugs are out of control for so early in the year especially mosquito's due to the wet Winter thus far.
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Going to dump a lot of snow in the mountains.



and that is where it is important.....everything in LA with the exception of watering lawns....will drain to the pacific and not alleviate the drought
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21639
Quoting 198. Xyrus2000:


You're wasting your time. People like luvtogolf and ncstorm have demonstrated on multiple occasions that they know nothing about the science and also don't want to know. It doesn't matter how much research, papers, and data you have to back up your position you will never, ever convince them of anything. Jesus himself could come down from the heavens on a sunbeam, stand before these people and say, "Hey. You're messing up the planet my father created for you to live on. Stop it." and their response would be, "Go away you tree-huggin' communist hippy before we nail you to an oil derrick."

Spend your time educating those that actually want to be educated. It's more rewarding. :)


Another personal attack. I tried asking those questions and got ripped. And you wonder why?
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I guess all this rain will push southward thru 48 hours..
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winter doesnt last long here huh...........
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Quoting 113. Xulonn:
NC, if you ever go there and ask an intelligent question, you will be quite surprised at the polite and helpful response you get. However, since you go over there occasionally only to berate, insult and attack the science-minded regulars who get sarcastic with trolls and AGW/CC deniers, some resentment and questioning of your sincerity might surface.

So why do you go to the climate blog of a climate science professional, and do nothing there except attack the messengers for their "manners" and never honor Dr. Rood by asking an intelligent question?

Unfortunately, I can practically guarantee the you will not even attempt to write an honest and intelligent response to my question, but rather will attack and berate me for daring to challenge your false statement.

Please be honest and forthright for once. I, for one, would be most pleased if you would stop the nastiness and join in earnest conversation.


You're wasting your time. People like luvtogolf and ncstorm have demonstrated on multiple occasions that they know nothing about the science and also don't want to know. It doesn't matter how much research, papers, and data you have to back up your position you will never, ever convince them of anything. Jesus himself could come down from the heavens on a sunbeam, stand before these people and say, "Hey. You're messing up the planet my father created for you to live on. Stop it." and their response would be, "Go away you tree-huggin' communist hippy before we nail you to an oil derrick."

Spend your time educating those that actually want to be educated. It's more rewarding. :)
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Quoting 190. Patrap:
Why not go with 9, number 9, number 9, number 9...



I thought it is was Mambo Number 5?

Link
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10310
Quoting 193. StormTrackerScott:
California is in for a lot of rain the next couple of days. 2" to 4" in Los Angeles is not to shabby.



Going to dump a lot of snow in the mountains.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
201 PM EST WED FEB 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS EASTERN US PUSHING ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOMETIME
THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY TO
SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
POINT...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
KEEP THIS BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN THE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL US WILL MOVE EAST AND DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOW IN THE
50S.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PASSAGE BY MID WEEK. AT THIS POINT I WOULD SAY THIS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THEN
A WET MID/END OF THE WEEK.

&&
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Quoting 187. sar2401:

I can't believe that front is creating convection down there again. I got .32" for just light rain. It will be a lot more breezy after the front goes through...and colder too. My high of 52 occurred at midnight and the temperature is now 42. The winds are 15 mph with 22 mph gusts. The strange thing is that the high yesterday was 75 with north winds all day and now it's 42, still with north winds. I used to think I understood something about weather. :-)
yes they are expecting my nightime temps to go down about 10 degree's or so..wont last long,Our winter is just about over in a few weeks..
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California is in for a lot of rain the next couple of days. 2" to 4" in Los Angeles is not to shabby.

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Quoting 188. CaribBoy:
I can tell you that the 2014 HS will surprise us !!!


Based on?
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Quoting 185. yoboi:



About 10 %.....


supported only by your lies and not a single shred of evidence, because you are a blatant liar.
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Why not go with 9, number 9, number 9, number 9...

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128318
Quoting 178. ScottLincoln:

But that's just it, Levi, the trend didn't flat line. You made a new trend, over a shorter period with frequent climate variability noise stronger than the signal.

You haven't demonstrated evidence to suggest that the climatic trend has changed in a meaningful way. In fact, the trend rate since 1975 has remained within the confidence interval of all subsequent trend start dates, right up to 2005:

HadCRUT, Cowtown & Way technique

I noticed that you chose your trend lines to begin in 2001. Again using HadCRUT (Cowtan & Way technique), we can use 2000 as a breakpoint and make a post-2000 trend prediction:


No evidence of a change in trend since 2000.
Quoting 167. ScottLincoln:

There has been an apparent slowing of the surface air temperatures over the last 10-15 years. It does not extend to the cryosphere or the oceans, which are larger storages of heat.
And when put into the context of the actual warming trend "pre-pause," there actually is no evidence of an actual pause:


"Does this mean global warming is slowing, nobody knows?"
That's just not accurate, Levi. We've discussed this before, you again have completely ignored the oceans and cryosphere to try and claim that there is some slowing in the heat accumulation. This is just not supported by the evidence when you look at the whole climate system.

You are right, a "30 year slowing" would be significant. Certainly no such "30 year slowing" exists when the evidence of slowing over a shorter period is not particularly strong.


Some of the "missing" heat may be due to volcanic activity.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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