NHC Adds Unnamed Subtropical Storm to 2013's Atlantic Tally

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:19 PM GMT on February 17, 2014

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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced last week that the hurricane season of 2013 had one more storm that should have been named--a short-lived low that developed south of the Azores during early December, which became a subtropical storm on December 5. "Should-Have-Been-Named-Subtropical-Storm-Nestor" reached top sustained winds of 45 mph. The storm formed over unusually cool waters of 22°C (72°F), and brought sustained 10-minute winds of 37 mph with a gust to 54 mph near 00 UTC December 7 to Santa Maria in the southeastern Azores. With this addition, the 2013 Atlantic season ended with 14 tropical and subtropical storms. Two, Ingrid and Humberto, became hurricanes, but neither became a major hurricane.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Unnamed Subtropical Storm Fourteen at 15:30 UTC December 6, 2013, as it approached the Azores Islands. At the time, "Should-Have-Been-Named-Subtropical-Storm-Nestor" had 45 mph sustained winds. Image credit: NASA.

December named storms are rare
The unnamed 2013 subtropical storm is the Atlantic's first December tropical or subtropical storm since Tropical Storm Olga of 2007. There have been eighteen Atlantic tropical or subtropical storms that have formed in the month of December since record keeping began in 1851. Only four have hit land. Eight of the eighteen storms have occurred since 1995. Eight have been hurricanes, with a Category 2 hurricane in 1925 being the only December storm to hit the mainland U.S.

December named storms have higher than usual odds of being subtropical in nature, since the ocean temperatures required to create a fully tropical system are typically lacking. The NHC began naming subtropical storms in 2002. Between 1968 and 2001, subtropical storms were simply given numbers ("One", "Two", etc). Before 1968, subtropical storms were never classified as such, but were sometimes called "Unnamed storm". A landmark study performed by Herbert and Poteat (1975) led to a substantial increase in the identification and naming of subtropical storms in the late 1970s and early 1980s. However, when Bob Sheets became director of the National Hurricane Center between 1987 and 1995, he declared that subtropical storms should not be recognized, and very few subtropical storms were classified during this period. Prior to 1968, there are many systems that were subtropical in the Atlantic that should have been included in the official HURDAT database. I've seen estimates that 5-10 storms were missed in the 1950s, and ten between 1969 and 1999. A reanalysis effort is underway to include these "missed" storms into the database. However, it will be several years before this process is complete. Here are all of the tropical and subtropical storms that have formed in December in the Atlantic since 1995:

2013: Unnamed Subtropical Storm Fourteen, December 5
2007: Tropical Storm Olga, December 11
2005: Tropical Storm Zeta, December 30
2003: Tropical Storm Odette, December 4
2003: Tropical Storm Peter, December 7

Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is an "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high".

Mexican National Hurricane Agency formed
The president of Mexico announced in mid-January the creation of a new National Hurricane Agency. The new institution may begin operations as soon as this summer, and will study how to generate and communicate hurricane and severe weather forecasts.

Jeff Masters

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1177. nonblanche
4:08 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 1090. sar2401:

I imagine it got a lot more exciting when the Navy moved the Top Gun school up there in 1996. The guys who get to go to that school are some of the best (and also craziest) pilots in the Navy. There have been two crashes at Fallon in the past three years. One involved a contractor from Airborne Tactical Advantage Company that flying an Israeli built Kfir fighter. The ATAC pilots are hired to fly the "dissimilar" aircraft like the Kfir to give Navy pilots experience in fighting non-US aircraft. That was the one that crashed right on the runway in 2012. The pilot did not make it in that crash. Another crash occurred in 2011 involving an F/A-18 but that one occurred further out in the desert and the two crew members were able to eject safely before the crash. Unfortunately, pilots flying high performance aircraft at the limits of their design will sometimes have a bad outcome. :-(


It was the pilot flying the Israeli jet that I was thinking about. Windy morning, worse than a couple days ago (when Reno recorded a 100mph gust.) That was a really sad incident - a combination of bad weather, a very hard gust, and directions from the ground that all came together.

And yes - we trust the people in the air and on the ground to be safe as they can.

(A good friend took his son to the Reno Air Show, left to come home about a half hour before THAT crash a couple years ago. He was 8 at the time, and we didn't tell him what happened until a year later, when he was older enough to handle the news.)

Sometimes I wonder how the flyers and crew can manage in the windstorms we get around here, but I also understand their need to be ready for all kinds of conditions. And yep - we're getting a crazy windfront from Pyramid Lake blowing through right now, and a jet just flew over our farm.
Member Since: October 21, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 272
1176. sar2401
3:44 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting Naga5000:


That's an assumption not backed by any evidence. The map posted is designed to make you see it that way. Let's take a step back and really think about it.

If there is a confirmed spotted tornado, funnel, or doppler indicated tornado NWS will issue a warning. The average forward motion of a tornado is roughly 30 mph, ranging from 0 - 70, the length of time a tornado may be onthe ground averages roughly 15 minutes, but can range from 0 min to 2 hours. If you do the math of averages alone, it's obvious the NWS would have to issue huge swaths of tornado warning to accommodate the inherent features of a tornadic storm.

Edit: I would be willing to bet that the disconnect between tornado warnings and people following them may have more to do with mistrust of governmental agencies in the parts of the country mainly effected by tornadoes. (Just my opinion, I haven't really looked into it)

It appears to me (without any real knowledge of how that map was produced) that the yellow may be the total area affected by tornados compared to the total area affected by tornado warnings. I don't know how that was calculated but it seems like a non-trivial task to somehow come up with the total area of all tornadoes in a five year period. I'd have to see some more details of how this was done before I put credence in that map.

As to the opinion in your last sentence, I won't dignify that with a response.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17327
1175. ScottLincoln
3:37 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 1164. Patrap:


GOP Lawmaker Claims We 'Could Use' Twice As Much Carbon Dioxide In The Atmosphere

The Huffington Post | by Mollie Reilly


A Utah lawmaker has proposed a bill that would limit the state's ability to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, claiming that the atmosphere "could use twice as much carbon dioxide" as it has now.

State Rep. Jerry Anderson (R-Price) introduced H.B. 229, which would change the definition of an air contaminant to exclude "natural components of the atmosphere," such as carbon dioxide, from being defined as contaminants. ...


This goes far beyond just CO2. Many things that are harmful to humans and other species could be defined as "natural components of the atmosphere." In fact, this would pretty much change the fundamental definition of pollution or contamination, which has more to do with effect and concentration than whether or not the material can be found naturally.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3320
1174. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:27 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1173. Torito
3:19 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 1172. washingtonian115:
Yeah in February..Perhaps a sign of a interesting spring to come.


Probably a rather dangerous one.... Might have to weather-proof our house again. It got pretty damaged through all this snow and ice.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1172. washingtonian115
3:16 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 1171. Torito:


It's up here in Manchester now, about to cross into PA..... Just heard some about 10 minutes ago. First thunderstorm of the year, eh?
Yeah in February..Perhaps a sign of a interesting spring to come.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17799
1171. Torito
3:13 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 1170. washingtonian115:
I heard thunder about a hour ago.Weird.


It's up here in Manchester now, about to cross into PA..... Just heard some about 10 minutes ago. First thunderstorm of the year, eh?
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1170. washingtonian115
3:12 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
I heard thunder about a hour ago.Weird.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17799
1169. Patrap
3:10 PM GMT on February 19, 2014


2014 Mardi Gras Parade Schedule

Click on the Mardi Gras Krewes below for further information and interactive routes for each parade.


FRIDAY | Feb 21

Route

French Quarter
Krewe of Cork 3:00pm

Uptown
Krewe of Oshun 6:00pm

Krewe of Cleopatra 6:30pm

Metairie
Krewe of Excalibur 7:00pm

Mandeville
Krewe of Eve 7:00pm
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
1168. PalmBeachWeather
3:06 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
What a beautiful day, gorgeous weather, bills are all paid, grandkids are back in school, and 1.5 Qt. of chocolate almond ice cream in the freezer....Nothing better.
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
1167. opal92nwf
3:04 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 1113. StormTrackerScott:
Looks like Winter went poof in FL and now comes Summer. I guess our 3 weeks of Winter was good while it lasted.


Although it is interesting to note that the Panhandle got winter by tenfold compared to central and southern FL.

While we were covered in ice and in the 20's in the daytime, most of peninsular FL was in the 70's in late January.
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 2870
1166. Torito
3:03 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 1137. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
NAM HIRES SIM RAD 06Z RUN HR45



That squall attached to that system is picture perfect.. Might be some really rough weather coming from that.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1165. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:54 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 1157. ricderr:
City of Toronto continued

Major storm expected late Thursday and Friday.





wow keep...is this the first one of the year for you?...LOL


first thunder if it happens
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
1164. Patrap
2:52 PM GMT on February 19, 2014


GOP Lawmaker Claims We 'Could Use' Twice As Much Carbon Dioxide In The Atmosphere

The Huffington Post | by Mollie Reilly


A Utah lawmaker has proposed a bill that would limit the state's ability to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, claiming that the atmosphere "could use twice as much carbon dioxide" as it has now.

State Rep. Jerry Anderson (R-Price) introduced H.B. 229, which would change the definition of an air contaminant to exclude "natural components of the atmosphere," such as carbon dioxide, from being defined as contaminants. As the Salt Lake Tribune notes, the legislation would also restrict the state from establishing standards for acceptable atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases below 500 parts per million.

"The carbon dioxide level back in the days of the dinosaurs was considered to be about 600 parts per million. And they seemed to thrive quite well ... The vegetation back in those times was lush," Anderson said during a Tuesday committee hearing on the bill. "I'm thinking we could double the carbon dioxide rate and not have any adverse effects that I can tell. In Nebraska, they did a study and said basically that in our dry climates out here, we would be very much benefited by having more carbon dioxide than we have now."

According to Utah Public Radio, Anderson said he doesn't see carbon dioxide levels as a factor in climate change.

“The climate, always, is changing and the weather is never the same from one day to the next," Anderson said. "So, carbon dioxide has been a real culprit but I don't see it that way. We actually could use twice as much carbon dioxide as we’ve got.”

He continued, "I hate to think how cold it would have been a couple of months ago if we didn't have some global warming, it’s been a good thing to keep us from freezing to death."

Anderson's remarks stand at odds with the findings of the vast majority of climate scientists. A 2013 survey found that 97 percent of climate science papers agree that global warming is due to human activity, including carbon dioxide emissions. Those scientists have also found a number of harmful effects that would come as a result of higher carbon dioxide emissions, including worse heat waves, loss of sea ice and rapidly rising sea levels.

Matt Pacenza of the Healthy Environmental Alliance of Utah described the bill to KCPW last month as a stunt.

“We read this, plain and simple, as a bid from someone who, you know, probably thinks that climate change is a myth and is opposed to any efforts to be energy-efficient and move away from dirty coal and embrace mass transit and do all the things that so many folks think are a good idea," he said.

Members of the state's House Natural Resources, Agriculture, and Environment Committee voted to hold the bill.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
1163. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:52 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 1158. Patrap:



Hows the Mayor doing ?, I hope he hasn't "cracked" over the Weather as of late keep.

; )
I don't follow that circus pat
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
1162. LargoFl
2:51 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
mucape is kinda High around here fri-sat............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42045
1161. LargoFl
2:49 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42045
1160. ricderr
2:43 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
I hope he hasn't "cracked" over the Weather as of late keep.


crack killed apple jack
he just jumped in and never jumped back
he was just to blind to see that
death lives in the rock house
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 676 Comments: 22344
1159. hydrus
2:40 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 1154. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


big enough as it is we don't need anything major

just want some snow melt that's all
Next couple of model runs should show what we are going to deal with.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22585
1158. Patrap
2:39 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 1157. ricderr:
City of Toronto continued

Major storm expected late Thursday and Friday.





wow keep...is this the first one of the year for you?...LOL



Hows the Mayor doing ?, I hope he hasn't "cracked" over the Weather as of late keep.

; )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
1157. ricderr
2:37 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
City of Toronto continued

Major storm expected late Thursday and Friday.





wow keep...is this the first one of the year for you?...LOL
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 676 Comments: 22344
1156. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:28 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Special weather statement for
City of Toronto continued

Major storm expected late Thursday and Friday.

Two developing weather systems, one from Alberta and the other from Texas, will be tracking towards the Great Lakes, where they are forecast to merge and rapidly intensify Thursday. This intense system will bring rising temperatures to Southern Ontario, but also significant precipitation and strong winds.

Rain is expected to reach Southwestern Ontario near midday Thursday, then spread eastward to the Golden Horseshoe Thursday afternoon. As the precipitation spreads further north and eastward through the evening and overnight hours, it will encounter colder air and likely begin as snowfall before changing to rain. Freezing rain and ice pellets will also be likely as the snow transitions to rain.

While considerable uncertainty still exists regarding the details of Thursday and Friday's weather, current indicators suggest the following:

From Southwestern Ontario to the Golden Horseshoe and eastward along the Lake Ontario shore toward Kingston, rainfall amounts could be in the 30 to 40 mm range, with much of the precipitation falling Thursday night through Friday morning. Thunderstorms are also a possibility in these areas, and may result in locally higher rainfall amounts. Significant snow melt due to the rising temperatures will also be a concern.

For regions north of a line from about Kincardine eastward to Ottawa, snowfall ranging anywhere from a trace to 10 cm Thursday night may be followed by 10 to 20 mm of rain. A brief period of freezing rain and ice pellets is likely during the transition from snow to rain, however, freezing rain could persist for several hours in Eastern Ontario, especially over the Ottawa Valley.

Strong winds will also be a concern in some areas, particularly for regions along the Great Lakes shores. Southerly winds in the 30 to 60 km/h range will veer to southwesterly Friday and increase, with gusts 70 or 80 km/h possible.

Meteorologists continue to monitor the development of these weather systems. Weather watches or warnings will likely be required.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
1155. Patrap
2:25 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Ann Arbor finally above freezing after weeks below.

Ann Arbor Weather at a Glance
Weather Station
Marra Drive, Ann Arbor
Elevation925 ft

Now
Overcast
Temperature

34.9 °F

Feels Like 35 °F
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
1154. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:23 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 1151. hydrus:
Moisture return is limited. This would have been a major event if return flow was plentiful.


big enough as it is we don't need anything major

just want some snow melt that's all
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
1153. PalmBeachWeather
2:21 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 1118. StormWx:
Does it get any nicer?



StormWx.....Absolutely beautiful....Spent the last 3 days in Mt. Dora and went to the Rennigers Extravaganza...Couldn't have asked for a more wonderful weekend....Love it.
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
1152. Patrap
2:19 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
...shoulda,woulda,coulda'
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1151. hydrus
2:18 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Moisture return is limited. This would have been a major event if return flow was plentiful.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22585
1150. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:15 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
72 HR PRECIP TOTALS

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
1149. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:13 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
THURSDAY FORECAST MAP

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
1148. GeorgiaStormz
2:09 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Memphis:
BOWING SEGMENTS AND SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER INITIATION.

THIS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO THE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S RESULTING IN
LOW LCLS...WINDS SLIGHTLY BACKED AT THE SURFACE...BULK SHEAR ON
THE ORDER OF 70 KTS...SRH 0-1 KM VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300
M2/S2...AND LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM WILL BE A PRIME ENVIRONMENT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THIS REGION. SBCAPE VALUES ARE MARGINAL WITH
READINGS FROM 400 TO 800 J/KG...BUT ALL OTHER PARAMETERS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS INITIALLY DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT INCREASING AS THE
STORM MODE BECOMES MORE LINEAR LATER IN THE EVENING.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9757
1147. GeorgiaStormz
2:08 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
the return of lightning :)

Huntsville AL

BUFR SOUNDINGS AND SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE HIGH PROB
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...TO GO ALONG WITH FREQUENT CG LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9757
1146. GeorgiaStormz
2:07 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Jackson, MS

A SOLID WARM
SECTOR WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTN WITH SOME POINTS
AT FORECAST RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH OTHERS AT LEAST WITHIN
1-2F DEGREES REACH OF THEM AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S.
MODIFIED SOUNDING WITH THESE READINGS SUGGEST HIGHER INSTABILITY
VALUES THEN CURRENT MODELED VALUES.
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A STRONG CONVERGENT FRONT THROUGH THE REGION INTO THIS
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR. THIS WILL ACT TO ERODE THE
CAP BUT ENOUGH CIN LOOKS PRESENT TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE
LINE AT BAY AND ALL CONVECTION WILL BE ORIENTED ALONG A SW/NE TILTED
LINE. THIS ANGLE OF TILT ALONG WITH THE 0-3 KM SHEAR /40-45KT/
VECTOR ANGLE MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR BOWING SEGMENTS TO FORM AND
THUS TAKE AWAY SUPPORT FOR MESO-VORTICY DEVELOPMENT IN THE LINE.

OVERALL...THIS COULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL WITHIN THE LINE.
HOWEVER, WITH WIND FIELDS AT STRONG AS THEY ARE...DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SOME SEVERE HAIL ALSO
POSSIBLE.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9757
1145. GeorgiaStormz
2:05 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
ATL

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF WITH A BANG AS MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE
ON A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM FRIDAY MORNING... ACROSS THE ATLANTA METRO AREA
BETWEEN 3 AM AND 6 AM... AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA BETWEEN
6 AM AND NOON ON FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW A HIGH SHEAR... LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT... WITH A DEEP/STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DRIVING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM QUICKLY EASTWARD. THE RESULTING
FRONTAL FORCING INTO 300-600 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE AND 35-45 KNOT
0-1KM BULK SHEAR SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FROM BOWING ECHOES EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SQUALL LINE THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER... A FEW EMBEDDED TORNADOES LOOK TO ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE RAPIDLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT... COURTEOUS OF A STRONG 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO PLACE NORTH AND PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL GEORGIA IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA... WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT LIKELY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND 9 AM FRIDAY
MORNING. ALL INTEREST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE
STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM AS WE GO
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9757
1144. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:02 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 1105. Neapolitan:
Well, to be fair, you did ask for the shake map--which was provided--and not the DYFI. So here you are. And as you can see, it's not that hard to get info from the area--not even for a moderate offshore earthquake:

quake

Oh wow right near Barbados.
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1143. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:57 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
NAM HIRES SIM RAD 06Z RUN HR60 FINAL

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
1142. Patrap
1:57 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 1448. JohnLonergan:
How we ended up paying farmers to flood our homes
This government let the farming lobby rip up the rulebook on soil protection – and now we are suffering the consequences

It has the force of a parable. Along the road from High Ham to Burrowbridge, which skirts Lake Paterson (formerly known as the Somerset Levels), you can see field after field of harvested maize. In some places the crop lines run straight down the hill and into the water. When it rains, the water and soil flash off into the lake. Seldom are cause and effect so visible.

That's what I saw on Tuesday. On Friday, I travelled to the source of the Thames. Within 300 metres of the stone that marked it were ploughed fields, overhanging the catchment, left bare through the winter and compacted by heavy machinery. Muddy water sluiced down the roads. A few score miles downstream it will reappear in people's living rooms. You can see the same thing happening across the Thames watershed: 184 miles of idiocy, perfectly calibrated to cause disaster.

Two realities, perennially denied or ignored by members of this government, now seep under their doors. In September the environment secretary, Owen Paterson, assured us that climate change "is something we can adapt to over time and we are very good as a race at adapting". If two months of severe weather almost sends the country into meltdown, who knows what four degrees of global warming will do?

The second issue, once it trickles into national consciousness, is just as politically potent: the government's bonfire of regulations.

Read more in The Guardian ...
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1141. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:57 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
NAM HIRES SIM RAD 06Z RUN HR57

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
1140. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:56 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
NAM HIRES SIM RAD 06Z RUN HR54

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
1139. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:56 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
NAM HIRES SIM RAD 06Z RUN HR51

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
1138. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:56 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
NAM HIRES SIM RAD 06Z RUN HR48

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
1137. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:55 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
NAM HIRES SIM RAD 06Z RUN HR45

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
1136. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:55 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
NAM HIRES SIM RAD 06Z RUN HR42

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
1135. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:54 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
NAM HIRES SIM RAD 06Z RUN HR39

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
1134. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:54 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
NAM HIRES SIM RAD 06Z RUN HR36

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
1133. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:54 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
NAM HIRES SIM RAD 06Z RUN HR33

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
1132. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:53 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
NAM HIRES SIM RAD 06Z RUN HR30

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
1131. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:53 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
NAM HIRES SIM RAD 06Z RUN HR27

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
1130. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:52 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
NAM HIRES SIM RAD 06Z RUN HR24

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
1129. hydrus
1:48 PM GMT on February 19, 2014




Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 am CST Wednesday Feb 19 2014


Valid 201200z - 211200z


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the eastern half
of the U.S. From the MS valley eastward to the Appalachians...and the
Great Lakes southward to the Gulf Coast...


...
A strong middle-level trough initially moving into the plains states is
forecast to shift eastward across the plains through the afternoon...and
then across the MS/Ohio valleys/upper Great Lakes overnight as it
begins to take on a negative tilt.


At the surface...a deepening low is forecast to move north-northeastward from the
southeastern Kansas vicinity to Lake Superior by the end of the period...while a
strong/trailing cold front sweeps quickly eastward -- crossing the MS
valley through the afternoon and then across the Appalachians
through the end of the period. This front will focus a line of
strong/severe storms from afternoon into the overnight hours.


..OH/middle and lower MS valleys across Tennessee into the deep south...
Similar to the forecast over the past couple of days...a fairly
widespread severe weather episode appears likely day 2 -- primarily
Thursday afternoon and evening and into the early morning hours of
Friday -- as a strong cold front and associated/powerful upper storm
system move across the central and into the eastern Continental U.S..


Strong southerly low-level winds advecting moisture northward will support
modest destabilization /generally around 500 j/kg mixed-layer cape/
along the front...leading to eventual initiation/expansion of a
frontal line of thunderstorms. By late afternoon...a nearly
solid/fast-moving line of convection should stretch from the southern
upper Great Lakes vicinity south-southwestward into the central/western Gulf coastal
region -- accompanied by a risk for fairly widespread damaging wind
gusts. In addition...given winds expected to increase
rapidly/significantly above the surface...a few embedded tornadoes
will be possible within the line -- particularly within a zone in
the middle Ohio/Tennessee Valley vicinity. Limited instability should limit
severe hail risk however...particularly north of the Gulf Coast states.


Overnight...storms should remain well organized/severe as they move
quickly eastward toward/into the Appalachians -- after which some
disruption of overall storm intensity/severe risk may occur.


.Goss.. 02/19/2014



Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22585
1128. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:44 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
anyone in grt lakes area and the ne make sure any storm drains near your home or business get clear off today to help drain away the water tomorrow and Friday
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
1127. CaicosRetiredSailor
1:38 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 1108. BahaHurican:
Morning all... another beautiful day in Nassau, and likely to continue so all day... cool temps are still out there, but by the weekend our local met is suggesting we'll be having afternoon "pop-up" showers due to daytime heating.... and it's not even March yet... lol ... only got down to 68 F last night, so the cold is moderating, but I'm hoping it'll stay cooler until the weekend. I didn't expect this cold snap to last as long, but it's been fun while it lasted...



Morning Baha…

We FINALLY got some rain…

YAY!
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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