California's Sierra Snowpack Only 12% of Average, a Record Low

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:32 PM GMT on January 31, 2014

Share this Blog
55
+

California's first significant snow storm of 2014 hit the Sierras on Wednesday and Thursday, dumping up to 2 feet of snow, with a melted water equivalent of up to two inches. However, this modest snowstorm was not enough to keep the Sierra snowpack from recording its lowest snow amounts in more than 50 years of record keeping during Thursday's Sierra Snow Survey. The survey found a snow pack that was only 12% of normal for this time of year. Until Thursday, the lowest statewide snowpack measurement at this time of year was 21% of average, in 1991 and 1963, according to the Los Angeles Times. Since snowpack in the Sierras forms a crucial source of water for California, the dismal snow survey results are a huge concern.


Figure 1. Frank Gehrke, chief of the California Cooperative Snow Survey Program for the Department of Water Resources, walks leaves a snow covered meadow after the second snow survey of the year near Echo Summit, Calif., Thursday, Jan. 30, 2014. Despite the overnight snow storm the survey showed the snow depth at 12.4 inches with a water content of only 1.4 inches for this location at this time of the year. Gehrke said that while the recent snow fall will help, it is not enough to impact the water supply.(AP Photo)

The forecast: little drought relief in sight
One of the most persistent and intense ridges of high pressure ever recorded in North America has been anchored over the West Coast since December 2012. While the ridge has occasionally broken down and allowed low pressure systems to leak though, these storms have mostly brought spotty and meager precipitation to California, resulting in California's driest year on record during 2013. January 2014 could well be its driest January on record. The ridge inevitably builds back after each storm, clamping down on any moisture reaching the state. Since rain-bearing low pressure systems tend to travel along the axis of the jet stream, these storms are being carried along the axis of the ridge, well to the north of California and into Southeast Alaska, leaving California exceptionally dry. The latest runs of the GFS and European models show that the ridge is now building back, and it appears likely that California will see no significant precipitation until at least February 7. A weak upper level low will move along the coast on Sunday and spread some light rain along the immediate coast, but this precipitation will generally be less than 0.25"--too little to have any significant impact on the drought. The ridge will not be as intense when it builds back, though, which gives me some hope that a low pressure system will be able to break the ridge by mid-February and bring the most significant rains of the winter rainy season to California.


Figure 2. One of the key water supply reservoirs for Central California, Lake Oroville, as seen on January 20, 2014. Image credit: California Department of Water Resources.

Worst California drought in 500 years?
UC Berkeley paleoclimatologist B. Lynn Ingram, author of "The West Without Water: What Past Floods, Droughts, and Other Climatic Clues Tell Us About Tomorrow", said in an interview, “this could potentially be the driest water year in 500 years.” Her research on tree rings shows that California has not experienced such an extreme drought since 1580. "If you go back thousands of years, you see that droughts can go on for years if not decades, and there were some dry periods that lasted over a century, like during the Medieval period and the middle Holocene. The 20th century was unusually mild here, in the sense that the droughts weren’t as severe as in the past. It was a wetter century, and a lot of our development has been based on that." It's no wonder, then, that the overall agricultural impact of the drought could reach $1 billion this year, according to the Fresno-based Westlands Water District.

California's drought woes are part of an on-going 14-year Western U.S. drought that began in 2000, and peaked between 2000 - 2004. A 2012 study titled, Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America, found that the 2000 - 2004 drought was the most severe Western North America event of its kind since the last mega drought over 800 years ago, during the years 1146 - 1151. The paper analyzed the latest generation of climate models used for the 2013 IPCC report, which project that the weather conditions that spawned the 2000 - 2004 drought will be the new normal in the Western U.S. by 2030, and will be considered extremely wet by the year 2100. If these dire predictions of a coming "megadrought" are anywhere close to correct, it will be extremely challenging for the Southwest U.S. to support a growing population in the coming decades.

Megadroughts in the Western U.S. can develop from natural causes, as well, and the current pattern of cooler than average ocean temperatures in the Eastern Pacific and warmer than average ocean temperatures in the Atlantic increase the odds of drought conditions like the ones we have seen during the current megadrought. Edward Cook, director of the Tree Ring Laboratory at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, N.Y., said at a presentation last month at the American Geophysical Union meeting that tree ring data show that the area of the West that was affected by severe drought in the Medieval period was much higher and much longer than the current drought. It is “indeed pretty scary,” Cook said. “One lasted 29 years. One lasted 28 years. They span the entire continental United States." Two megadroughts in the Sierra Nevada of California lasted between 100 and 200 years. Bobby Magill at Climate Center has more on Dr. Cook's presentation in a post, Is the West’s Dry Spell Really a Megadrought?
 


Figure 3. Normalized precipitation over Western North America (five-year mean) from 22 climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report, as summarized by Schwalm et al., 2012, Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America. The horizontal line marks the precipitation level of the 2000 - 2004 drought, the worst of the past 800 years. Droughts of this intensity are predicted to be the new normal by 2030, and will be considered an outlier of extreme wetness by 2100. The paper states: "This impending drydown of western North America is consistent with present trends in snowpack decline as well as expected in-creases in aridity and extreme climate events,including drought, and is driven by anthropogenically forced increases in temperature with coincident increases in evapotranspiration and decreases in soil moisture. Although regional precipitation patterns are difficult to forecast, climate models tend to underestimate the extent and severity of drought relative to available observations. As such, actual reductions in precipitation may be greater than shown. Forecasted precipitation patterns are consistent with a probable twenty-first century megadrought." Image credit: Schwalm et al., 2012, Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America, Nature Geoscience 5, 551-555, Published online 29 JULY 2012, DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1529, www.nature.com/naturegeoscience.

Related posts
Unprecedented Cut in Colorado River Flow Ordered, Due to Drought, my August 2013 post.

Lessons from 2012: Droughts, not Hurricanes, are the Greater Danger, my November 2012 post.

How Two Reservoirs Have Become Billboards For What Climate Change Is Doing To The American West, August 12, 2013 climateprogress.org post by Tom Kenworthy.

Scientists Predicted A Decade Ago Arctic Ice Loss Would Worsen Western Droughts. Is That Happening Already?, June 2013 post by Joe Romm at climateprogress.org.

Twenty Cities At Risk of Water Shortages, August 14, 2013 wunderground news post by Nick Wiltgen

‪If There's Global Warming...Why Is It So Cold?‬
It's been top-ten coldest January on record in the Upper Midwest, and much colder than average over much of the Eastern U.S. However, the that isn't the case over other portions of the globe, including the Western U.S. and Alaska. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt analyzes the situation in his latest post, How Cold has this January been in the U.S.? He concludes, "this January’s average temperature nationally has probably been close to normal since the western half of the nation has been almost as much above average as the eastern half was below average. The only region that will most likely have experienced a TOP 10 coldest January will be the Upper Midwest." In the U.S., only four stations set all-time low minimum temperature records in January, compared to 34 that set all-time high maximum temperature records. I've been monitoring global temperatures this month, and it appears likely that January will rank between the 5th and 15th warmest January since record keeping began in 1880. Of particular note were the amazingly warm January temperatures in the Balkans. According to weather record researcher Maximiliano Herrera, "over 90% of all stations in the Balkans from Slovenia to Croatia to Bosnia to Serbia To Montenegro to Kosovo etc., have DESTROYED their previous record of warmest January ever (many locations have 100 - 200 years of data.) In many cases the monthly temperatures were 7 - 9°C (13 - 16°F) above average, and the new records were 3 - 4°C above the previous record. This is for THOUSANDS of stations, almost all of them. In Slovenia, for example, Mount Kredarica is the only station in the whole country not to have set its warmest January on record."


Video 1. ‪If There's Global Warming ... Why Is It So Cold?‬ The latest video from climate videographer Peter Sinclair on the Yale Climate Forum website demonstrates that while it was a very cold January in the Midwest, this has been counterbalanced by record warmth over the Western U.S. and Alaska, caused by an unusually extreme kink in the jet stream.

Links
Another Unexpected Disaster That Was Well Forecast. Based in Atlanta, TWC's Bryan Norcross concludes that "WARM GROUND + VERY COLD AIR + SNOW + WORKDAY = CHAOS. If the decision-makers understood the formula above, this information should have been sufficient to trigger a proper response."

Jon Stewart Lays Into Georgia’s Snowpocalypse

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Crystallized Beauty (mischa13)
Gulf Shores, AL 1.29.14
Crystallized Beauty
Ice in the swamp (JCFindley)
An atypical day in a southern swamp.
Ice in the swamp

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1272 - 1222

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

1272. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:34 PM GMT on February 03, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1271. hurricanes2018
1:24 PM GMT on February 03, 2014
this is starting to look bad here!! someone will get 12 inches of snow
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 12811
1270. wilsongti45
1:23 PM GMT on February 03, 2014
Not to steal the thunder from the current snow storm but...

Despite the timing
and track differences...the low should be a deep one. The general
model consensus is 980s...but some of the ensemble members are in
the 970s S of Li.

Have mercy!
Member Since: February 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 157
1269. biff4ugo
1:10 PM GMT on February 03, 2014
Amazing 2 weekends of great "Fair" weather at the Hoggetowne Fair. It is usually at least one day of FREEZING weather and one Amazingly wet day during the 5 day weekend run, but this year all the rain and the worst of the cold happened during the week days in between. It was fantastic!
OK, we can turn back on regular weather now.

Thanks Dr. M for posting good weather and science communication to combat the pro-ignorance media.

Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 1536
1268. Doppler22
1:08 PM GMT on February 03, 2014
3" of snow already.
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3626
1267. hurricanes2018
12:53 PM GMT on February 03, 2014
Winter Storm Maximus is update to more snow now someone will get 12 inches of snow!! 2inches of snow in one hour to.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 12811
1266. StormTrackerScott
12:48 PM GMT on February 03, 2014
We had some seabreeze action yesterday. Shortly after at around 6:30 it poured.


Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2227
1265. StormTrackerScott
12:44 PM GMT on February 03, 2014
You would think the rainy season is starting especially after I picked up 2.61" last week with many areas picking up close to 5".

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2227
1264. hurricanes2018
12:39 PM GMT on February 03, 2014
Alerts for Guilford: Winter Storm Watch, Winter Weather Advisory...winter storm watch is more Tuesday night
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 12811
1263. AussieStorm
12:34 PM GMT on February 03, 2014
TC Fletcher is now ex-TC Fletcher but is forecast to regenerate.


And Ex-TC Edna is forecast to make a comeback.


This Tropical Low looked good this morning before it crossed land. This is being predicted to continue east and become a TC in the GOC later this week.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15882
1262. washingtonian115
12:31 PM GMT on February 03, 2014
Nothing but rain here.A non event for me.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16325
1261. Doppler22
12:29 PM GMT on February 03, 2014
1"/1.5" per hour rates at my house in York County, PA right now. Shew its coming down hard :p
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3626
1260. VirginIslandsVisitor
12:22 PM GMT on February 03, 2014
Quoting 1251. Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning.

The pattern of fast moving showers will continue in the NE Carribbean for the next few days. Febuary is supposed to by a dry month but it has started above normal in rainfall.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW ALONG WITH RELATIVELY CONSISTENT MOISTURE AT
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD MID WEEK. CURRENT
PRECIPITABLE WATER MODELS SHOW MOISTURE FALLING FROM 1.60 TO
1.08 INCHES BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN SHOOTING UP TO 1.6
INCHES ON FRIDAY WHEN MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED THE WEEK AFTER NEXT WEEK.


Good morning everyone

A beautiful morning here on the island!

Had a huge Super Bowl party in our yard last night. Of course, 20 minutes before the game started, the power blew out on three islands, St. Thomas, Water Island and St. John. You could hear the screams of frustration. Fortunately, where we live we are on the hospital line so are always the first to be restored. It came on three minutes before the game started. I understand that we were a few between the islands to see the game. Have no idea what happened but that's two years in a row for Super Bowl time. PO'd workers??

On another note: Really hoping this forecast works out, Tropics! My sis and bro-in-law escaped the snow storms in Eastern Ontario to catch a cruise and are scheduled to come in for the day on Thursday. I've got an amazing day planned for them and it doesn't include rain!!

Have a great day, everyone

Lindy

Have

Member Since: July 30, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 573
1259. ncstorm
12:06 PM GMT on February 03, 2014
Good Morning all..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14232
1258. LargoFl
11:24 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36620
1257. LargoFl
11:23 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36620
1256. Sfloridacat5
11:21 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
NWS has backed off the snow for Washington D.C.

Today
Rain, snow, and sleet before 1pm, then a chance of rain and snow between 1pm and 3pm. High near 37. North wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. North wind 3 to 6 mph.

Tuesday Cloudy, with a high near 36. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph.

Tuesday Night Rain. Low around 32. East wind 5 to 9 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday Rain, mainly before 1pm. High near 46. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest 12 to 17 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5889
1255. aislinnpaps
11:19 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 36 degrees with a wind chill of 28. The rain moved out in the last hour or so. We have a high of 50 forecasted for later today. Guess I'll watch the bridges today. I'm also watching Thursday's forecast so far. They're saying rain with temp of 29. But that's several days away yet.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: shrimp and spinach omelet, Eggs Benedict with asparagus and a creamy low fat shrimp sauce, scrambled eggs with ricotta and brocolini, eggs and hash browns, Apple Pie Breakfast Cakes, berry breakfast pizza, Cheesecake Burritos with strawberry topping, pancakes and maple syrup, thick slices of fried honey ham, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3115
1254. LargoFl
11:18 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Short Term Forecast

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
557 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014

FLZ043-139-142-148-149-239-242-248-249-031400-
SUMTER-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...YANKEETOWN...
CRYSTAL RIVER...HOMOSASSA...HERNANDO BEACH...BAYPORT...
PORT RICHEY...HUDSON...CHIEFLAND...BRONSON...WILLISTON. ..
INVERNESS...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...DADE CITY...ZEPHYRHILLS
557 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014

.NOW...
THROUGH 9 AM...AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 2 TO 3
MILES...WITH DENSE FOG PATCHES THAT WILL QUICKLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW
DOWN...USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...AND MAINTAIN A SAFE DISTANCE
BETWEEN VEHICLES.

$$

COLSON
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36620
1253. LargoFl
11:17 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36620
1252. LargoFl
11:15 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36620
1251. Tropicsweatherpr
11:03 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Good morning.

The pattern of fast moving showers will continue in the NE Carribbean for the next few days. Febuary is supposed to by a dry month but it has started above normal in rainfall.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW ALONG WITH RELATIVELY CONSISTENT MOISTURE AT
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD MID WEEK. CURRENT
PRECIPITABLE WATER MODELS SHOW MOISTURE FALLING FROM 1.60 TO
1.08 INCHES BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN SHOOTING UP TO 1.6
INCHES ON FRIDAY WHEN MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED THE WEEK AFTER NEXT WEEK.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13913
1250. LargoFl
10:32 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN BALTIMORE AND
HARFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BALTIMORE COUNTY AND BALTIMORE CITY UNTIL 4
PM.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE
BAY BELOW POOLES ISLAND AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC.

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36620
1249. LargoFl
10:31 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Good Morning!..................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36620
1248. yonzabam
9:48 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Quoting 1213. Jedkins01:



You are indeed excused, I didn't know a banana belt was an actual term not necessarily related to banana growth or tropical weather, rather just a region warmer than the surrounding areas.

I stand corrected :)


In Antarctica, the peninsula area is known as 'the banana belt'.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2848
1247. GeorgiaStormz
9:45 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Mini squall line just blew through here in GA..no special westher statement but winds repeatedly neared 40 to 45 mph
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9716
1246. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:26 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
7:00 PM EST, Fletcher (992 hPa) has made landfall the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Karumba and Gilbert River Mouth.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44424
1245. robert88
8:53 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Anyone have the 00Z ECMWF total snowfall for next weekends storm? I was just wondering if it was similar to the GFS. I sure did like tonight's run of the GFS. It puts me in the 10-12 inch range in NW NC.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
1244. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:17 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE FLETCHER, CATEGORY ONE (08U)
4:03 PM EST February 3 2014
============================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Fletcher, Category One (992 hPa) located at 17.1S 140.9E or 160 km east northeast of Burketown and 70 km south southwest of Gilbert River Mouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
10 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
30 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Fletcher is now close to crossing the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast north of Karumba and should move inland this evening.

GALES with wind gusts to 100 km/h are expected this afternoon and tonight between Burketown and Kowanyamah.

The cyclone may weaken overland overnight, but is forecast to recurve towards to the west during Tuesday in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria and redevelop. As a result GALES would again be possible between Kowanyamah and Burketown extending to coastal and island communities between the Northern Territory border and Burketown later Tuesday or Wednesday.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS 17.1S 141.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 17.4S 140.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 17.5S 138.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 17.2S 137.0E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================
Mornington radar shows a small and tight circulation now on the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast north of Karumba.

Convection rapidly developed earlier this morning, although curvature on visible imagery has not shown an well defined curved band. Dvorak estimate of FT/CI of 2.5 based on ill-defined curved band signature [0.5 wrap] on visible imagery, however Dvorak trend is not particularly applicable as system has moved from land to water overnight. Cyclone intensity estimated based on well defined radar signature combined with near gales from surface observations northwest of the center earlier today. Gales are mostly likely on the northern side, being enhanced by monsoon flow and speed of motion.

The broadscale environment is favorable for development - diffluent upper wind pattern, low wind shear and very warm sea surface temperatures of around 30-32C. However the system is moving over land which should weaken it below cyclone intensity tonight.

The motion has been easterly under the influence of the monsoonal flow to the north, however this is likely to change tonight and the system should move slowly and somewhat erratically. Numerical models are consistent in depicting a reversal of direction towards the west during Tuesday, as a mid-level ridge to the south builds. This may allow the system access to the warm waters to re-intensify it as a cyclone prior to moving over land once again and weakening. By Thursday it may interact with a second low approaching from the Top End of northern Australia. This interaction may be Fujiwara-like or even vortex merger, although the system will be overland.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from the Burketown to Kowanyama.

A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal areas from Northern Territory/Queensland border to Burketown
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44424
1243. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:16 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC EDNA (10U)
5:00 PM EST February 3 2014
============================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Low, Former Edna (996 hPa) located at 13.8S 154.5E or 1000 km east northeast of Cairns has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving east at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS 13.4S 156.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 14.7S 159.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 20.0S 161.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 22.4S 160.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
========================
A relatively small sized system and embedded in the monsoon trough, Ex-TC Edna continued to maintain deep convection near its centre in the last 12 hours. The system has been moving northeastwards but is expected to take a more southeastwards track in the next 12 to 24 hours and then curve towards the south due to an upper trough to its southwest.

Outflow remains very good in the northern and eastern quandrants. The system is currently in a moderate shear zone however movement over the next 24 hours will see the system in a reduced shear environment. This may enable the cloud structures to improve with gales wrapping around a little further than just the northeast quadrant. The current intensity is based on Dvorak analysis of a curved band wrapping 0.35 degrees, yielding a T=2.0.

As the system moves closer to New Caledonia by Thursday, the cyclone is likely to come under the influence of stronger northwest flow and hence weaken below Tropical Cyclone intensity.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44424
1242. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:16 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:15 PM CST February 3 2014
========================================

At 12:30 pm CST, Monday 3 February, another tropical low, 995 hPa, was located about 100 km south southeast of Wadeye and 100 km northwest of Timber Creek and moving east southeast at 13 km/h.

This low is expected to continue moving east across the Northern Territory south of Katherine during Tuesday to be located over the Roper-McArthur District during Wednesday and Thursday before heading west again later in the week. Although the low is expected to remain over land, there is a possibility the low will move over the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria on Wednesday prior to recurving back to the west. There is a moderate risk at this stage that the low may develop into a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
======================================

Tuesday Very Low
Wednesday Moderate
Thursday Moderate
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44424
1241. SouthCentralTx
7:09 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Quoting 1239. wxgeek723:


Well hey that's pretty exciting too! Consider the years where you received no wintry precip at all. I think mixing it up is exciting. Remember that winter is a chore, snow may look pretty but always be careful what you wish for. Tracking the weather is all about being patient. Ask Kori, he's been waiting for years for a good hurricane!

You will get your snow. One day.

And I will get....a map greener than fresh produce for now:



Oh yeah I completely understand about being patient, we were forced to be patient in 2011 for rain then last year before halloween I got a foot of rain overnight. I've had a couple of small snows like a tenth of a inch of snow over the past few years, was nice but melted the next day.

I was just 10 years old in 2004 when the Christmas Miracle happened and got 4-6 inches of snow. I love experiencing any weather extreme unless it's drought. Makes me feel horrible about California.
Member Since: March 19, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 224
1240. Astrometeor
6:56 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Also known as "Um...don't pay any attention to anything we said earlier about accumulating snows."

Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 94 Comments: 9611
1239. wxgeek723
6:55 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Quoting 1236. SouthCentralTx:


At least you get snow... All I get this winter is sleet accumulation and ice. Is asking for a record breaking snow down here to much to ask for?


Well hey that's pretty exciting too! Consider the years where you received no wintry precip at all. I think mixing it up is exciting. Remember that winter is a chore, snow may look pretty but always be careful what you wish for. Tracking the weather is all about being patient. Ask Kori, he's been waiting for years for a good hurricane!

You will get your snow. One day.

And I will get....a map greener than fresh produce for now:
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3426
1238. Astrometeor
6:40 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Quoting 1234. TropicalAnalystwx13:
This conversation is getting dragged out because someone refuses to say "I was wrong". Must be that pride thing.


No Cody, we've been telling you that you've been wrong for a while now. Glad to see you own up to it now.

Thanks!
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 94 Comments: 9611
1237. TropicalAnalystwx13
6:39 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Quoting 1234. TropicalAnalystwx13:
This conversation is getting dragged out because someone refuses to say "I was wrong". Must be that pride thing. Moving on now...

January 2014 finished with 4 tornadoes, all EF0s. None resulted in fatalities, though minor damage was observed.

We should get through much of February with little issue. For the first half of the month, constant arctic intrusions will limit instability and thus the chances for strong to severe storms. By the second half of the month, the flow should become more zonal (west to east) across the United States; this is not favorable for big outbreaks.

I should note though that flooding may become an issue in the South. With the -PNA pattern in place, persistent ridging off the Southeast coast will force the mean storm track through the central/lower Plains and through the Ohio River Valley. That plus an enhanced subtropical jet as the MJO traverses the Pacific will provide plenty of moisture from VA to TX/OK and everywhere in-between.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
1236. SouthCentralTx
6:38 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Quoting 1230. wxgeek723:
Astro why the heck did you have to give me your bad luck? I am increasingly confident tomorrow's snowstorm will underperform for the Mid Atlantic. The temperatures remain warmer than what was modeled earlier. Not to mention the temperature will hover in the mid 30s which will make it that much harder for the snow to accumulate on hard surfaces. Who knows though, still looking for 1"/hr snowfall rates.


At least you get snow... All I get this winter is sleet accumulation and ice. Is asking for a record breaking snow down here to much to ask for?
Member Since: March 19, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 224
1235. Astrometeor
6:35 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Quoting 1233. KoritheMan:


Is the Washibug at all similar to the Recurvebug that assails the Gulf Coast every year and prevents me from getting my hurricanes?


Yea, just with snow instead of hurricanes.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 94 Comments: 9611
1234. TropicalAnalystwx13
6:33 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
This conversation is getting dragged out because someone refuses to say "I was wrong". Must be that pride thing. Moving on now...

January 2014 finished with 4 tornadoes, all EF0s. None resulted in fatalities, though minor damage was observed.

We should get through much of February with little issue. For the first half of the month, constant arctic intrusions will limit instability and thus the chances for strong to severe storms. By the second half of the month, the flow should become more zonal (west to east) across the United States; this is not favorable for big outbreaks.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
1233. KoritheMan
6:32 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Quoting 1231. Astrometeor:


Sorry, the Washibug is afflicting me.

Send me a 6"+ storm, and I might recover. Otherwise, not looking good right now.


Is the Washibug at all similar to the Recurvebug that assails the Gulf Coast every year and prevents me from getting my hurricanes?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 550 Comments: 19773
1232. wxgeek723
6:32 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Quoting 1228. TropicalAnalystwx13:

You made a valid point. I don't feel the need to argue about something I was wrong about, unlike other people... *looks at Kori*


I respect your modesty
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3426
1231. Astrometeor
6:31 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Quoting 1230. wxgeek723:
Astro why the heck did you have to give me your bad luck? I am increasingly confident tomorrow's snowstorm will underperform for the Mid Atlantic. The temperatures remain warmer than what was modeled earlier. Not to mention the temperature will hover in the mid 30s which will make it that much harder for the snow to accumulate on hard surfaces. Who knows though, still looking for 1"/hr snowfall rates.


Sorry, the Washibug is afflicting me.

Send me a 6"+ storm, and I might recover. Otherwise, not looking good right now.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 94 Comments: 9611
1230. wxgeek723
6:29 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Astro why the heck did you have to give me your bad luck? I am increasingly confident tomorrow's snowstorm will underperform for the Mid Atlantic. The temperatures remain warmer than what was modeled earlier. Not to mention the temperature will hover in the mid 30s which will make it that much harder for the snow to accumulate on hard surfaces. Who knows though, still looking for 1"/hr snowfall rates.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3426
1229. KoritheMan
6:29 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Quoting 1228. TropicalAnalystwx13:

You made a valid point. I don't feel the need to argue about something I was wrong about, unlike other people... *looks at Kori*


Nothing you posted about the word "irrelevant" has anything to do with the validity of using synonyms.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 550 Comments: 19773
1228. TropicalAnalystwx13
6:28 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Quoting 1226. wxgeek723:


He can't ignore something that hasn't been presented, but he has no problem ignoring something that has.

You made a valid point. I don't feel the need to argue about something I was wrong about, unlike other people... *looks at Kori*
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
1227. KoritheMan
6:25 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Quoting 1226. wxgeek723:


He can't ignore something that hasn't been presented, but he has no problem ignoring something that has.


Of course.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 550 Comments: 19773
1226. wxgeek723
6:24 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Quoting 1222. KoritheMan:
Also, I don't hear you countering Trent's comment. Is it because you don't have one?

It's okay. We all have to swallow our pride sometimes. I still wuv you, though. <3


He can't ignore something that hasn't been presented, but he has no problem ignoring something that has.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3426
1225. KoritheMan
6:20 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Quoting 1223. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Typical Kori, reverting to petty attacks once he's realized his argument was folly.

Have fun at Walmart. :)


Not till Thursday, but thanks for the sentiment.

Love ya, bro. <3
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 550 Comments: 19773
1224. Astrometeor
6:18 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Quoting 1223. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Typical Kori, reverting to petty attacks once he's realized his argument was folly. :)


You don't have to be trollish Cody, just admit you're wrong so we can all move on with our lives.

kthxbai
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 94 Comments: 9611
1223. TropicalAnalystwx13
6:16 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Quoting 1221. KoritheMan:


Why do I even bother?

Kids these days.

Typical Kori, reverting to petty attacks once he's realized his argument was folly.

Have fun at Walmart. :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
1222. KoritheMan
6:13 AM GMT on February 03, 2014
Also, I don't hear you countering Trent's comment. Is it because you don't have one?

It's okay. We all have to swallow our pride sometimes. I still wuv you, though. <3
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 550 Comments: 19773

Viewing: 1272 - 1222

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
63 °F
Scattered Clouds