SnowedOutAtlanta: Extreme Travel Chaos in the Deep South

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on January 29, 2014

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A dangerous winter storm swept through the Deep South on Tuesday, dumping 1 - 4" of snow and 1/4" - 1/2" of ice on a region unused to dealing with severe winter weather. Travel chaos resulted in many cities, and at least nine people died in storm-related accidents. Officially, 2.6" of snow fell at the Atlanta Airport from Winter Storm Leon, and snow amounts across the city ranged from 1.5" - 3.5". But with temperatures in the low 20s, and only 40 snow plows and 30 sand trucks to handle the snow, Atlanta streets and highways quickly turned into parking lots during the afternoon snow, as schools, businesses, and government offices all closed nearly simultaneously, sending a huge number of vehicles onto the roads. Atlanta experienced its worst traffic day of all-time, and thousands of motorists were forced to abandon their vehicles, with many spending the night sheltering in stores, stalled cars, or strangers' homes. A Facebook group dubbed SnowedOutAtlanta, meant to connect stranded motorists with people willing to put them up for the night, had thousands of members by Tuesday night. Thousands of children never made it home, and were forced to spend the night at their schools or at bus shelters. There were 1200 confirmed traffic accidents in Atlanta, with at least 130 injuries, according to media reports. It was Atlanta's worst driving day since the infamous Snow Jam of 1982, when 6" of snow also created traffic chaos, stranding thousands of motorists.

The Weather Channel's Paul Goodloe had this to say about his evening commute home Tuesday night:

"On my drive home tonight, I gave a ride to a school bus driver who was walking on a road that was littered with abandoned cars.  He said his bus got stuck with kids on it not far from the school. They walked back.  He told me there are several hundred kids spending the night at East Cobb Middle and several hundred high school kids spending the night at Wheeler High. He said several buses were involved in traffic accidents, usually with other people running into the buses.  One bus was hit on all 4 sides."


Figure 1. Traffic gridlock in Atlanta on Tuesday afternoon, January 28, 2014. Image credit: @beercontrol/twitter.


Figure 2. Snow began falling in Atlanta at 11:15 am on Tuesday, and the progression of traffic gridlock in the city was remarkably swift as everyone left school and work simultaneously and flooded area roads. Image credit: Kevin O. via Twitter.

Dangerous travel continues on Wednesday
After a morning low of 11° in Atlanta on Wednesday morning, the temperature will struggle to reach the freezing mark, resulting in little improvement in road conditions during the day. A Winter Storm Warning continues for Atlanta throughout this afternoon, even though skies are sunny, and no precipitation is expected. I don't think I've even seen a Winter Storm Warning issued with a forecast of clear skies, but if it helps keep people off the roads, it's a great idea:

"… Winter Storm Warning now in effect until 1 PM EST this afternoon...
* locations... northern Georgia.
* Hazard types... continued hazardous driving conditions due to snow and ice covered roads.
* Accumulations... no additional accumulations.
* Timing... now through this afternoon.
* Impacts... snow and ice covered roadways will make travel extremely treacherous. Numerous vehicle accidents have already been reported across northern Georgia. Stay off the roadways if possible."


At 1 pm, this Winter Storm Warning was replaced with a "Civil Emergency Message", which is the way situations like this should be handled in the future.
Atlanta was warned well in advance of the winter storm, but local officials failed to plan properly for the storm. Advances in weather forecasting won't help much if people don't use the information to make the right decisions. J. Marshall Shepherd, a University of Georgia professor who serves as the current head of the American Meteorological Society, had these points to make in his blog post, "An Open Thank You to Meteorologists in Atlanta":

1.  The public needs to clearly understand what Watch, Warning, and Advisory mean rather than what they “think” they mean. Also, they must understand that a Watch for a winter event has nuanced differences than tornado, hurricane, or other warnings.

2.  Should we develop “warnings” that are more clearly meaningful to the public like a number or index? Research and scholarly discussion will be required, but increasingly, social science research is revealing that how people consume information is as critical as giving them the right information.

3.  The public must watch the evolving forecast not a snapshot they saw 2  or so days ago. The forecasts change.

4.  A friend (not a meteorologist but an intelligent, attentive citizen) noted that a few media outlets, at times, showed 4 different model scenarios at times. She noted that this is confusing to the public. I agree. We, as meteorologists, use an array of model tools, diagnostics, or data. Does the public need to see “the sausage making” or the scenarios we weigh out?  When these scenarios are shown on TV or a website, we, as professionals, know how to consume them, but the public may be confused or misinterpret the message.

5. Forecasting capacity in the 1-5 day window is quite good, but as we get to local-to-regional scales and 1-24 hour time frame (“the mesoscale”), the processes are not as well-represented in the models. We know where improvements are needed. Budget cuts, travel restrictions, and other policy decisions hinder research and development that lead to improvements for citizens.

6.  We still have challenges in how weather information is consumed, interpreted, or viewed by policymakers and decision-makers. This is ultimately the root of the Atlanta mess from Tuesday, in my view. I don't believe "anyone" is necessarily to blame. The situation simply points out that we still have challenges in communicating across the science-decisionmaker-public "gap."  



Figure 3. People work to clear stranded vehicles on County Road 25, Tuesday Jan. 28, 2014 in Wilsonville, Ala. (AP Photo/Hal Yeager)

Freezing rain and snow end across the South
Though freezing rain and snow from Winter Storm Leon have ended across most of the South, temperatures well below freezing will continue to keep traffic paralyzed over a swath of the country from East Texas to Eastern North Carolina. Atlanta wasn't the only city with extreme traffic problems. Birmingham, Alabama looked much like Atlanta, with thousands of drivers stuck and hundreds of children unable to get home; Tuscaloosa, Alabama declared a state of emergency and ordered all non-emergency vehicles off the road; 124 miles of I-10 in the Florida Panhandle were closed on Wednesday morning due to ice. Fortunately, the freezing rain was not great enough to cause serious power outages, with ice accumulations generally under 1/4". Here are a few of the power outage numbers as of midnight on Tuesday:

NC: Two utilities reporting 2,528 without power
SC: Two utilities report 997 without electricity
GA: One utility reports 1,260 without power
TX: Three utilities report 914 without power
LA: Two utilities, 417 without power

Jeff Masters

Winter hits the South (chinagirl1)
Winter hits the South
Winter hits the South
Alabama Snow ? ! ? ! (sampsondog)
Simple Alabama Snowman.
Alabama Snow ? ! ? !
Snow Day (sillysun)
Winter Storm, blustery cold and snow!!
Snow Day

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779. snow2fire
8:50 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
If another winter storm hits ATL next week, the result would be the same except that mayor would blame it on all the people that tried to go home when he ORDERED them to stagger going home according to his master plan.

There is so much wrong with this...

Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 223
778. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:00 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
777. wxgeek723
3:45 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Winter 2013-2014 has entered the top 15 for number of days below zero prior to February in the Twin Cities.


Records date back to the 1870s.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3574
776. pcola57
3:44 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Cyclone Dylan bears down on North Queensland as locals brace for destructive winds
Friday January 31, 2014 - 01:34 EDT



"Residents in North Queensland are gearing up for destructive winds as Cyclone Dylan is expected to make landfall early this morning."

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6819
775. ColoradoBob1
3:42 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 773. ColoradoBob1:
300 evacuated due to fire in Norway
SMAVAERET, Norway, Jan. 30 (UPI) -- More than 300 people were evacuated from the island of Froya in Norway due to a brushfire sweeping through the villages on the island, officials said.
The fire broke out Wednesday, destroying about 90 buildings in Hasvag and Smavaeret, forcing the evacuation of 33 residents from those villages, TheLocal.no reported.


Read more: Link



Firefighters face 'a new reality'
January 30, 2014
UPDATED: As firefighters struggled to gain control over the second major brushfire this week, experts were warning that Norway faces a new seasonal reality regarding fire danger. Emergency crews simply didn't expect they'd need to fight such fires in the middle of winter, but a changing climate with unpredictable weather is now sparking calls for new levels of preparedness.
"Just a month ago, no one would have said there was a threat of brushfires in Trøndelagime at this of year," Dagfinn Kalheim, director of the Norwegian fire prevention association


Link


The villages in question =
Link
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2420
774. VR46L
3:39 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 772. Dakster:


Me too, it was like, well, is anything left it the area?

Is the Earth splitting in two?


Yeah that really would be doomsday !
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
773. ColoradoBob1
3:37 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
300 evacuated due to fire in Norway
SMAVAERET, Norway, Jan. 30 (UPI) -- More than 300 people were evacuated from the island of Froya in Norway due to a brushfire sweeping through the villages on the island, officials said.
The fire broke out Wednesday, destroying about 90 buildings in Hasvag and Smavaeret, forcing the evacuation of 33 residents from those villages, TheLocal.no reported.


Read more: Link



Firefighters face 'a new reality'
January 30, 2014
UPDATED: As firefighters struggled to gain control over the second major brushfire this week, experts were warning that Norway faces a new seasonal reality regarding fire danger. Emergency crews simply didn't expect they'd need to fight such fires in the middle of winter, but a changing climate with unpredictable weather is now sparking calls for new levels of preparedness.
"Just a month ago, no one would have said there was a threat of brushfires in Trøndelagime at this of year," Dagfinn Kalheim, director of the Norwegian fire prevention association


Link
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2420
772. Dakster
3:34 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 768. VR46L:


LMAO !!!

I love typos ,that just are so obviously typos ...


Me too, it was like, well, is anything left it the area?

Is the Earth splitting in two?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10282
771. StormTrackerScott
3:33 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Orlando

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2937
770. StormTrackerScott
3:31 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Strong upper ridge building towards FL. With this in play it is going to be hard to get rid of rain chances across C & S FL as it is keeping a band of deep moisture overhead.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2937
769. pcola57
3:28 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
T/C 11P (Dylan)..





SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 003
WTPS31 PGTW 300300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 148.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 148.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.6S 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.8S 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 21.0S 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 148.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 310300Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6819
768. VR46L
3:24 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 766. Dakster:


USGS reported a 22 mag earthquake that went unnoticed for too long a period of time.


LMAO !!!

I love typos ,that just are so obviously typos ...
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
767. Dakster
3:24 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 757. Torito:
Umm... This 327MPH wind gust is a glitch, right?...

Link


It has been removed from that link, unless I am missied it. The only field that says wind/gust is blank.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10282
766. Dakster
3:22 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 763. VR46L:


Umm I think we would have heard about it ,if it was not an error ....


USGS reported a 22 mag earthquake that went unnoticed for too long a period of time.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10282
765. MsZola
3:15 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 759. GeorgiaStormz:
I don't know if it was a gamble in that sense.. many on here thought the GFS was crazy and the consensus even among mets was south of atlanta with the NAM/ECMWF..Still could have prepared more.


I think the local was really de-emphasizing it. I talked to someone just north of Atlanta that morning. I'd looked up his forecast and said "wow, it looks like you guys are going to get hit."

He said "nah, going to be to our south."

I referred him to his local page here and read it out loud to him. "A couple of inches of snow and an inch of sleet/ice".

"We'll see," he said.
'
He ended up one of the thousands whose drive home took hours rather than minutes.

So locally they apparently weren't disseminating NWS info or taking it seriously.
Member Since: July 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 35
764. GeorgiaStormz
3:10 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
One year ago today.




also somebody had some fun with the atlanta traffic map

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
763. VR46L
3:00 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 757. Torito:
Umm... This 327MPH wind gust is a glitch, right?...

Link


Umm I think we would have heard about it ,if it was not an error ....
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
762. beell
2:55 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 760. GeorgiaStormz:


There was never any freezing rain..

The 0C 850mb line for exmple, was well south of atlanta.

It snowed, turned to slush as people squashed it/it melted on roads, and to ice as it froze. wherever tire tracks had passed it was solid ice up to 1/2" thick or more.


That was my understanding, GS. 2m air temps were below freezing and falling for all three locations at the onset of reported snow.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16613
761. GeorgiaStormz
2:53 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 748. ILwthrfan:


This is has no chance right? I mean not even the 93' Super storm covered that much area with more than 6". I have never seen anything remotely even close to this type of scenario in my lifetime. Even if this is a combination of 2 systems it would impressive in scale.


I doubt it verifies.. compared to ensembles it's a bit much
It also is the result is two systems. (maybe 3)
Either way, it will be fun to watch.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
760. GeorgiaStormz
2:49 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 755. beell:


I would have to admit to a certain amount of ignorance to the weather in Atlanta on Tuesday morning-as my attention was elsewhere.

Three sites in the Atlanta area reporting snow only. That is not to say there was not any freezing rain.

Date / Time / Winds / Visibility / Weather

Atlanta, DeKalb-Peachtree Airport
28 12:53 NW 6 0.75 Light Snow Fog/Mist
28 11:53 NW 7 10.00 Overcast

Atlanta, Fulton County Airport-Brown Field
28 11:53 NW 8 2.50 Light Snow
28 10:53 N 6 10.00 Overcast

Hartsfield-Jackson/Atlanta International Airport
28 10:52 NW 10 10.00 Light Snow
28 09:52 NW 13 10.00 Overcast

NWS Local Obs History





There was never any freezing rain..

The 0C 850mb line for exmple, was well south of atlanta.

It snowed, turned to slush as people squashed it/it melted on roads, and to ice as it froze. wherever tire tracks had passed it was solid ice up to 1/2" thick or more.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
759. GeorgiaStormz
2:48 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 693. sar2401:

That was really the issue, wasn't it? I can't help but think that with earlier warning or better action by those in charge of the schools (take your pick of who you want to beat up) that tremendous traffic jam could have been avoided. Added to all the moms picking up the kids you had all the businesses releasing employees early. That gridlock was almost inevitable. I didn't realize GA DOT had all that equipment available. Did they do any pretreating at all or were they just too far behind the power curve? I live in Eufaula and the bridge and causeway going from Eufaula to Georgetown had nothing applied at all, at least as of 3:00 pm today. The bridge deck, which is quite a steep grade coming out of Georgetown, was completely covered in snow and ice. If I didn't have good tires and four wheel drive I never would have attempted that bridge.



They had resources, but most to all of them were allocated south of the city.
All they did was pretreat some bridges in and around atlanta, and if they never return to them, that doesnt do much. North of atlanta nearly nothing at all was done

Quoting 695. FLWaterFront:
In the Atlanta gridlock case, it is clear that it was politicians who dropped the ball, not meteorologists.

As for the weather in this storm not turning out as it was originally predicted, several of us on this blog pointed out right from the beginning that this particular storm was going to be awfully difficult to predict, in terms of precisely where what type of frozen precipitation was going to fall, how much was going where and so on. It was clear even to some of us who are not professional meteorologists but study the weather nonetheless that the dynamics with this event were unusually fluid and unpredictable.

In any case it is clearly better to be safe than sorry. In the sorry example of what happened with the city government of Atlanta and the state government of Georgia, officials gambled on the chance that nothing significant was going to happen in Metro Atlanta so they did not need to expend funds and resources in preparation for that. But they gambled and lost, big time.


I don't know if it was a gamble in that sense.. many on here thought the GFS was crazy and the consensus even among mets was south of atlanta with the NAM/ECMWF..Still could have prepared more.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
758. Tropicsweatherpr
2:46 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Many in the U.S will like this to arrive.


Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14253
757. Torito
2:43 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Umm... This 327MPH wind gust is a glitch, right?...

Link
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
756. Tazmanian
2:42 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 742. GeorgiaStormz:
ECMWF by end of run

sharp gradient

10" for parts N GA...none south of atlanta





and all the snow washi could ever hope for... This would cripple such a large swath of the US




big snow for dallas starts at reasonable 160-170hrs


not complete fantasy



LOL I think the ECW. Is broken
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115082
755. beell
2:36 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 712. MahFL:


No, it was freezing rain.


I would have to admit to a certain amount of ignorance to the weather in Atlanta on Tuesday morning-as my attention was elsewhere.

Three sites in the Atlanta area reporting snow only. That is not to say there was not any freezing rain.

Date / Time / Winds / Visibility / Weather

Atlanta, DeKalb-Peachtree Airport
28 12:53 NW 6 0.75 Light Snow Fog/Mist
28 11:53 NW 7 10.00 Overcast

Atlanta, Fulton County Airport-Brown Field
28 11:53 NW 8 2.50 Light Snow
28 10:53 N 6 10.00 Overcast

Hartsfield-Jackson/Atlanta International Airport
28 10:52 NW 10 10.00 Light Snow
28 09:52 NW 13 10.00 Overcast

NWS Local Obs History



Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16613
754. Torito
2:35 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 753. grappler71:


Is the euro model or those images available for free anywhere? I used to be able to run the 10 day animated simulation from this site but haven't seen it for the last year. Is it pay only now? Any help appreciated for a weather novice. Thanks


Yeah, ECMWF precipitation maps are really hard to find now for free, most places require payments to view them now.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
753. grappler71
2:33 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 742. GeorgiaStormz:
ECMWF by end of run

sharp gradient

10" for parts N GA...none south of atlanta





and all the snow washi could ever hope for... This would cripple such a large swath of the US




big snow for dallas starts at reasonable 160-170hrs


not complete fantasy


Is the euro model or those images available for free anywhere? I used to be able to run the 10 day animated simulation from this site but haven't seen it for the last year. Is it pay only now? Any help appreciated for a weather novice. Thanks
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
752. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:32 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BASYANG
5:00 PM PhST January 30 2014
===================================

The Tropical Depression east of Mindanao is about to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility and is named "BASYANG"

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Basyang (1004 hPa) located at 8.6N 136.4E or 1,108 km east of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

Signal Warnings
=====================

Signal Warnings #1

Visayas region
---------------
1. Southern Leyte

Mindanao region
----------------
1. Surigao del Norte
2. Siargao Island
3. Surigao del Sur
4. Dinagat Province
5. Misamis Oriental

Additional Information
========================
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Expected to make landfall over Surigao Provinces late Friday evening or early Saturday morning.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboards of central and southern Luzon and of Visayas due to Tropical Depression "Basyang" and the Northeast Monsoon.

The public and local DRRMCs concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
751. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:32 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #18
TROPICAL CYCLONE DYLAN, CATEGORY TWO (07U)
11:08 PM EST January 30 2014
================================================

At 11:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Dylan, Category Two (975 hPa) located at 18.9S 148.2E or 125 km north of Bowen and 155 km east northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 7 knots towards the coast.

Storm Force Winds
===================
40 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
30 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
20 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
20 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
220 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0D1.5/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Dylan is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Bowen on Friday morning around sunrise.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible between Cardwell and St Lawrence Friday morning extending to adjacent inland areas later Friday morning. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 km/h are possible in coastal areas near the center.

Winds are expected to ease by the afternoon.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected about coastal and adjacent inland areas of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast and Whitsundays districts.

Coastal residents between Ayr and St Lawrence are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide on Friday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Ayr, particularly on the high tide on Friday morning. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS 20.4S 147.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 21.7S 145.3E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 23.1S 141.1E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical Cyclone Dylan has developed during the day - the max wind estimate of 55 knots based on Flinders Reef observations between 0700-1000 UTC north the of center. There is evidence of some easterly shear with convection largely constrained to the western flank limiting the extent of curvature. Dvorak estimates remain lower at -3.0 based on curved band of 0.6 wrap.

Landfall is expected within 12 hours and the system should weaken quickly thereafter although a convergent band to the south of the center may cause severe gusts and heavy rainfall that could extend well inland during the day. A separate severe weather warning has been issued to that effect.

Astronomical tides are close to the highest yearly tides, thus increasing the vulnerability to any storm surge. Based on the current track the cyclone should cross a few hours before the expected high tide but nevertheless inundation remains an ongoing concern as the southeasterly flow is already causing a positive anomaly of around 0.5 meters.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
======================================

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Cardwell to St Lawrence extending to adjacent inland areas, including Collinsville.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
750. hydrus
2:29 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 746. GeorgiaStormz:


Shows ice for dc...

from their forecast discussion

BUT MODELS HINT THAT A SURFACE WEDGE/CAD SCENARIO MAY
BE IN PLACE WHILE WARMING ENSUES ALOFT AND THAT MEANS THAT
FREEZING PRECIPITATION MAY BE A LEGITIMATE P-TYPE/CONCERN FOR THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

Could shutdown dc if they get enough
Good morning GS. It is going to be an interesting February weather wise.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21191
749. hurricanes2018
2:29 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
superbowl weather in the 40's and ice storm by next week!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 15 Comments: 30337
748. ILwthrfan
2:26 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 742. GeorgiaStormz:
ECMWF by end of run

sharp gradient

10" for parts N GA...none south of atlanta





and all the snow washi could ever hope for... This would cripple such a large swath of the US




big snow for dallas starts at reasonable 160-170hrs


not complete fantasy


This has no chance right? I mean not even the 93' Super storm covered that much area with more than 6". I have never seen anything remotely even close to this type of scenario in my lifetime. Even if this is a combination of 2 systems it would be impressive in scale.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1520
747. washingtonian115
2:24 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 746. GeorgiaStormz:


Shows ice for dc...

from their forecast discussion

BUT MODELS HINT THAT A SURFACE WEDGE/CAD SCENARIO MAY
BE IN PLACE WHILE WARMING ENSUES ALOFT AND THAT MEANS THAT
FREEZING PRECIPITATION MAY BE A LEGITIMATE P-TYPE/CONCERN FOR THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

Could shutdown dc if they get enough
Snow I can tolerate.Ice..no.Well I'm off.I'll check in later for the models.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
746. GeorgiaStormz
2:23 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 741. hydrus:


Shows ice for dc...

from their forecast discussion

BUT MODELS HINT THAT A SURFACE WEDGE/CAD SCENARIO MAY
BE IN PLACE WHILE WARMING ENSUES ALOFT AND THAT MEANS THAT
FREEZING PRECIPITATION MAY BE A LEGITIMATE P-TYPE/CONCERN FOR THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

Could shutdown dc if they get enough
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
744. washingtonian115
2:22 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 742. GeorgiaStormz:
ECMWF by end of run

sharp gradient

10" for parts N GA...none south of atlanta





and all the snow washi could ever hope for... This would cripple such a large swath of the US




Yeesh..Still 10 days away though.If that happens 2013-2014 will be one of the most memorable winters in D.C's/mid-atlantic's history.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
743. Torito
2:20 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 742. GeorgiaStormz:
ECMWF by end of run

sharp gradient

10" for parts N GA...none south of atlanta





and all the snow washi could ever hope for... This would cripple such a large swath of the US






30 inches south of MD. I won't believe it till i see it, but it's something to look out for.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
742. GeorgiaStormz
2:18 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
ECMWF by end of run

sharp gradient

10" for parts N GA...none south of atlanta





and all the snow washi could ever hope for... This would cripple such a large swath of the US




big snow for dallas starts at reasonable 160-170hrs


not complete fantasy
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741. hydrus
2:14 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
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740. Torito
2:13 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Lots of snow is supposed to fall from "winter storm maximus" in the next 2 days.

Pink is 18-24 inches, by the way.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
739. washingtonian115
2:13 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 735. Torito:


They lowered our possible snowfall amount for early next week from 12-18 inches to 6-12 inches..... however.. The end of next week now has chances for a foot of snow as well.
Well it's impossible to pin point snow totals this far out.We'll first have to see if any storm materializes before we can do that.
Quoting 736. VR46L:


There is a small chance of severe in the south and Mid west too next week
I'm not really a server weather professional so I'll leave that to the pro's.But server weather is possible in the south and mid-west with a cold front clashing with a warm air mass.That's only one ingredient though to h=get things going.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
738. hydrus
2:12 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21191
737. pcola57
2:10 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 726. Waltanater:
Looks like that "Global Warming" proof is indeed EVAPORATING! Ah ha ha ha!


Quoting 481. Waltanater:
So much for "Global Warming." That "FREEZES" that theory!

Quoting 478. Waltanater:
This "Global Warming" is KILLING us!!!

This May help you Walt..
From NASA..
What's the Difference Between Weather and Climate?



" The difference between weather and climate is a measure of time. Weather is what conditions of the atmosphere are over a short period of time, and climate is how the atmosphere "behaves" over relatively long periods of time."

Quick Google search results..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6819
736. VR46L
2:09 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 734. washingtonian115:
After a rather boring episode of weather sets in another exciting weeks lies ahead for D.C.CWG is hinting at multiple snow chances next week even if they aren't measurable.


There is a small chance of severe in the south and Mid west too next week
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
735. Torito
2:09 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 734. washingtonian115:
After a rather boring episode of weather sets in another exciting weeks lies ahead for D.C.CWG is hinting at multiple snow chances next week even if they aren't measurable.


They lowered our possible snowfall amount for early next week from 12-18 inches to 6-12 inches..... however.. The end of next week now has chances for a foot of snow as well.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
734. washingtonian115
2:07 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
After a rather boring episode of weather sets in another exciting week lies ahead for D.C.CWG is hinting at multiple snow chances next week even if they aren't measurable.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
733. hurricanes2018
2:06 PM GMT on January 30, 2014

Nearby Airports

New Haven | Clear | 18 °F
Chester | Clear | 19 °F
Meriden | Clear | 15 °F

Wrong location?


Nearby Weather Stations

Bishops Orchards-Meadow Ridge | 12.9 °F
Bishops Orchards-LHR | 3.6 °F
Jefferson Park, Madison, CT | 15.3 °F
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732. GeoffreyWPB
2:04 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
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731. GeorgiaStormz
2:03 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Past few GFS runs support 1900 hurricanes idea that after next weeks possibly stormy episode, the ensuing cold airmass could support more wintery wx





Could support snow but with the shallow arctic air maybe ice? for the Northern gulf coast states.. too far out to tell if it verifies.. good pattern though.

Reminds me of the turnaround from christmas 2010 to jan 2011
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730. GeoffreyWPB
1:57 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
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729. percylives
1:56 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
My earlier report caught the temp still going down and we bottomed this morning at 2 degrees down 4 from the previous low of this winter. This is quite low enough and this Arctic mass can leave anytime.

As I write this at 5 till 9 we're back up to a balmy 8. And for the record I'll take this cold over California's problem any day.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.