California's Record Warmth and Drought Won't Stop Outdoor NHL Hockey

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:41 PM GMT on January 23, 2014

Share this Blog
52
+

No rain or snow fell anywhere in California over the past week, prompting no change to the drought rankings for the state in today's U.S. Drought Monitor update. California's area experiencing extreme drought remained at 63%, making it one of the three worst winter droughts in state history. To break the drought, most of the state needs more than 12" of precipitation, and most of the southern half of the state needs more than a year of rainfall to fall in one month. On Wednesday, the San Francisco Bay area experienced its 10th consecutive day of record highs, with Oakland, Mountain View, Jan Jose, and Gilroy all hitting record highs of 72° - 75°. According to the National Weather Service, since December 23, record highs have been reported in the Bay Area a remarkable 22 out of 32 days.


Figure 1. One of the key water supply reservoirs for Central California, Lake Oroville, as seen on January 17, 2014. Image credit: California Department of Water Resources.


Figure 2. The amount of precipitation that must fall in one month to break the California drought is equivalent to more than a year's worth in most of the southern half of the state. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Outdoor hockey in record-warm Southern California?
The heat is also on in Southern California, where Burbank, California, located about 10 miles north-northwest of downtown Los Angeles, hit 81° on Wednesday. Not only was that a record high for the date, it also set a new record for consecutive January days with highs of 80° or above--ten. The previous record was eight consecutive days, set in 2009. A rare January fire weather watch is posted for the area, where offshore Santa Ana winds and humidities below 20% will heighten the fire danger Thursday and Friday.

The record warm weather in Southern California will not deter the National Hockey League from playing its first-ever outdoor hockey game in the U.S. west of the Rocky Mountains on Saturday in Los Angeles' Dodger Stadium. Puck drop is scheduled for Saturday at 7:15 pm, and temperatures are expected to be near 70° after a daytime high of 80°. The ice will be protected from the sun's heat during the day by an insulated, heat-reflecting Mylar blanket, according to an article in the Los Angeles Times. A 53-foot truck that houses pumps and refrigeration equipment will circulate glycol coolant at the rate of 1,000 gallons a minute through ice pans set up beneath the ice to keep the ice temperature at 22 degrees.


Figure 3. California Governor Jerry Brown holds a chart showing statewide average precipitation as he declares a drought state of emergency for California during a news conference on January 17, 2014 in San Francisco. At his State of the State address on Wednesday, Governor Brown said, "we do not know how much our current problem derives from the build-up of heat-trapping gasses, but we can take this drought as a stark warning of things to come.” Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images.

The forecast: no drought relief in sight
Less than an inch of precipitation has fallen over more than 95% of the state so far in January 2014, and the prospects for significant rain through the end of January look bleak. The large and persistent ridge of high pressure that has set up over the West Coast and shows no signs of budging. Since rain-bearing low pressure system tend to travel along the axis of the jet stream, these storms are being carried along the axis of the ridge, well to the north of California and into Southeast Alaska, leaving California exceptionally dry. Over the past few days, the GFS and European models have at times predicted that the ridge would weaken in 8 - 10 days and allow rain to move into Northern California. However, these forecasts have not been consistent, and forecasts that far into the future are not reliable, as it is very difficult to dislodge such a persistent and strong upper-level wind pattern.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1254 - 1204

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

1254. ARiot
2:08 PM GMT on January 31, 2014
Here in MD at the top of the bay, I ain't washing the salt off the cars just yet.

The roads are white with salt, and I hope whatever rain we get isn't too hard. I have a feeling that salt will come in handy soon.

I also think a return to warmer than normal is in the cards for late Feb. and March. Just a hunch.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 366
1253. Jedkins01
10:27 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
000
FXUS62 KTAE 251955
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
255 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2014

...Wintry precipitation possible Tuesday through Wednesday...


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The global models are forecasting the aforementioned front to
stall on Tuesday as a strong, positive tilted short wave trough
(embedded within the mean 500 mb trough) approaches from the
northwest. The first forecast challenge will be the potential for
some light freezing rain/sleet/rain mix Tuesday morning with some
lingering moisture in Southeast AL and South GA. This appears as a
low probability/low impact event, but we will keep an eye on it.

The most challenging portion of this forecast is Tuesday night and
Wednesday due to the unusual question of precip type (for our
area). The 12 UTC GFS backed off on QPF a bit in our forecast
area, while the 12 UTC ECMWF has more QPF than it`s previous run.
Looking at partial thicknesses, the ECMWF would support about an
inch of snow across part of our forecast area, while the GFS
solution would be more of a mix (including light rain, freezing
rain, sleet, snow). My colleague made the interesting point that
there is also an unusual discrepancy between the operational
models and their ensembles. With all of this uncertainty, we
haven`t made any major changes to yesterdays forecast and are
still calling for multiple precip types across much of our region.
It`s important to note that even a little bit of accumulating
ice/snow/sleet can have significant impacts to travel in the Deep
South.


After a chilly mid week (with the potential for a hard freeze or
two), there is finally good agreement among the GFS and ECMWF in a
major large scale 500 mb pattern change. Both models forecast a long
wave trough to develop over the western CONUS and a ridge over the
east. This would mean a gradual warming trend for our area and
generally fair weather.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6895
1252. Jedkins01
10:24 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6895
1251. flsky
9:26 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
The prediction is for 78 degrees next Sun and Mon here in ECFL. Hope the forecast holds - I need it!
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1737
1250. flsky
9:24 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Quoting 1203. pottery:
I go with Keeper.
Here's some ''More Love''

Was in the PanYard with this band last night.

n_US">

Looks like fun! Is this an annual event?
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1737
1249. GeorgiaStormz
8:40 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Quoting 1248. Levi32:


The 12km and 32km NAM are the same model. The 32km NAM is a lower resolution grid that covers the entire model domain (North America). The native 12km model grid is restricted to the CONUS. You will notice forecasts from both are exactly the same, but one will look like a different resolution than the other.


ok thanks.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9470
1248. Levi32
8:39 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Quoting 1235. GeorgiaStormz:
Question, on levi's site I am wondering the difference between the 12 and 32km nam.

If i'm understanding correctly

1. The 12km nam is only for the US and not all of north america.. Therefore it should be more accurate in shorter time before systems from off the grid move in and also more accurate toward the interior.

2. the 30km nam is on a full north american grid, so impulses in the epac for example will be properly handled, and with time handled more correctly than would the 12km.

That's just my guess.


The 12km and 32km NAM are the same model. The 32km NAM is a lower resolution grid that covers the entire model domain (North America). The native 12km model grid is restricted to the CONUS. You will notice forecasts from both are exactly the same, but one will look like a different resolution than the other.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26462
1247. Sfloridacat5
8:38 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Having a nice warm day down here in S.W. Fl.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4809
1246. GeorgiaStormz
8:36 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
And I'm right

compare 12z




to 18z



Much further south.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9470
1245. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
8:36 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1244. GeorgiaStormz
8:35 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
18Z allows energy to lag even more SW....

definitely trending to GFS..

I'd say this run has the low track across the central gulf with even less snow
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9470
1243. Astrometeor
8:21 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
NWS WFO in Nashville dropped my high on Tuesday from 20 to 11.

.....

Here she comes again.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 8301
1242. Drakoen
8:17 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
NWS Tallahassee:

The global models are forecasting the aforementioned front to
stall on Tuesday as a strong, positive tilted short wave trough
(embedded within the mean 500 mb trough) approaches from the
northwest. The first forecast challenge will be the potential for
some light freezing rain/sleet/rain mix Tuesday morning with some
lingering moisture in Southeast AL and South GA. This appears as a
low probability/low impact event, but we will keep an eye on it.

The most challenging portion of this forecast is Tuesday night and
Wednesday due to the unusual question of precip type (for our
area). The 12 UTC GFS backed off on QPF a bit in our forecast
area, while the 12 UTC ECMWF has more QPF than it`s previous run.
Looking at partial thicknesses, the ECMWF would support about an
inch of snow across part of our forecast area, while the GFS
solution would be more of a mix (including light rain, freezing
rain, sleet, snow). My colleague made the interesting point that
there is also an unusual discrepancy between the operational
models and their ensembles.
With all of this uncertainty, we
haven`t made any major changes to yesterdays forecast and are
still calling for multiple precip types across much of our region.
It`s important to note that even a little bit of accumulating
ice/snow/sleet can have significant impacts to travel in the Deep
South.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
1241. GeorgiaStormz
8:10 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Quoting 1239. Drakoen:
The ECMWF ensemble members telling a different story that the deterministic. 36/50 members on the ECMWF 00z, show the potential for snowfall in Tallahassee with a mean of 1.6 inches.

ECMWF 00z:


Awaiting the 12z update.


12z is cool




snow down there is rare..

I like the NAM better but i beleive the ecmwf more


the New nam consolidates the energy more, like the GFS
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9470
1240. GeorgiaStormz
8:08 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Switch of energy off california in progress

18znam hr 27



switches from moving north with the system off the left of image, to moving south with the continental trough.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9470
1239. Drakoen
8:08 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
The ECMWF ensemble members telling a different story that the deterministic. 36/50 members on the ECMWF 00z, show the potential for snowfall in Tallahassee with a mean of 1.6 inches.

ECMWF 00z:


Awaiting the 12z update.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
1238. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
8:08 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Quoting 1228. PedleyCA:


I will beware the Ides of March then. Last time we had a nasty drought like this you know what happened afterwards. Hopefully the atmospheric river isn't lined up to wash us off the planet....lol
I will let ya know if it is
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52397
1237. Astrometeor
8:06 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Quoting 1233. hurricanes2018:
cold night my friends


Low of 21 forecasted for me. Balmy compared to what has happened twice now this month, but still 7 degrees below the climatic normal for the date:

Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 8301
1236. GeorgiaStormz
8:06 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Quoting 1234. Drakoen:


Would be nice if the NAM trended farther south so more of North Florida could get in on the action. The ECMWF 12z showed this as a possibility.


No because I live in N GA

I believe with a strong high to the north, this all ends up in the GOM anyway.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9470
1235. GeorgiaStormz
8:05 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Question, on levi's site I am wondering the difference between the 12 and 32km nam.

If i'm understanding correctly

1. The 12km nam is only for the US and not all of north america.. Therefore it should be more accurate in shorter time before systems from off the grid move in and also more accurate toward the interior.

2. the 30km nam is on a full north american grid, so impulses in the epac for example will be properly handled, and with time handled more correctly than would the 12km.

That's just my guess.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9470
1234. Drakoen
8:03 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Quoting 1225. GeorgiaStormz:
Yeah that nam run was cool



too far south for my liking..
also at the end of the run it's still snowing in AL/Ga


I liked the previous run better(4" by the end of the run and still falling)


GFS now actually brings the energy through mexico


but digs it way deep into the gulf, and given that the nam is trending south run by run with the snow, I'd wager that this stays off shore or only near the gulf coast again

offshore:


Would be nice if the NAM trended farther south so more of North Florida could get in on the action. The ECMWF 12z showed this as a possibility.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
1233. hurricanes2018
8:02 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
cold night my friends
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 11112
1232. GeorgiaStormz
8:01 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
I will note the GFS is still hung up on mexico for a while before coninuing movement








a stronger positive tilt of the continental trough and less consolidation on the SW energy would favor the NAM solution (all though the NAM overdoes it anyway)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9470
1231. gregpinehurstnc
7:57 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
wow. a 45 second snow flurry , here at the pinehurst resort located in beuful nc!! to bad the usga does not let golfers play in cold, that would be a hoot,, dang it, it was nice to see, yet, after the 2000 snow, no power 4 7 days, i would like 8 inches of snow, not enuff to cause hell here in pinehurst, just enuff to sled down # 7, miss that turn you in the lake!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 88
1230. GeorgiaStormz
7:51 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
18Z nam trends further south imo

coming out now
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9470
1229. Sfloridacat5
7:50 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Quoting 1221. LargoFl:
these artic blasts come down thru canada..why dont they come down thru alaska into the pacific so the artic blast moves into california,THEN they would get their rains...


Depending on the Jet stream setup (storm track) artic air does plunge down into the Pacific Northwest and down into California.

This year the pattern doesn't support that. Big ridge pulling warm air up into Alaska with cold air plunging down into the middle and Eastern parts of the U.S. That sets Cali up for warm and dry conditions.

When I was in San Diego a few years back, the snow level was down to low elevations. It can get quite cold down into Southern California.
They need the rain (winter storms) so hopefully the pattern will change.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4809
1228. PedleyCA
7:48 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Quoting 1226. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its stuck in park there doing a circle dance with itself should move soon maybe two more weeks end of first week of feb maybe rains may not come till ides of march


I will beware the Ides of March then. Last time we had a nasty drought like this you know what happened afterwards. Hopefully the atmospheric river isn't lined up to wash us off the planet....lol
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4946
1227. GeorgiaStormz
7:47 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
With such a deep, cold Arctic airmass, it could seem logical that any weather system in the southern stream would be shunted south of here, well down in the Gulf. So, for now, we are not going to mention snow for South Alabama Tuesday.

HOWEVER: The system yesterday and last night was not handled well by the global models, and it brought freezing rain, sleet, and some snow to Southeast Texas, and the far south part of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. We will need to watch model trends.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9470
1226. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:44 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Quoting 1223. PedleyCA:


Because we don't want to freeze our A$$ off. The big ridge of High pressure might have something to do with it.
its stuck in park there doing a circle dance with itself should move soon maybe two more weeks end of first week of feb maybe rains may not come till ides of march
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52397
1225. GeorgiaStormz
7:37 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Yeah that nam run was cool



too far south for my liking..
also at the end of the run it's still snowing in AL/Ga


I liked the previous run better(4" by the end of the run and still falling)


GFS now actually brings the energy through mexico


but digs it way deep into the gulf, and given that the nam is trending south run by run with the snow, I'd wager that this stays off shore or only near the gulf coast again

offshore:
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9470
1224. PedleyCA
7:35 PM GMT on January 25, 2014


Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 10:53 AM PST on January 25, 2014
Scattered Clouds
71 °F / 22 °C
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 18%
Dew Point: 25 °F / -4 °C
Wind: 5 mph / 7 km/h / 2.1 m/s from the West

Pressure: 30.17 in / 1022 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
UV: 3 out of 16
Pollen: 8.10 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 20000 ft / 6096 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft / 249 m

70.9 here......
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4946
1223. PedleyCA
7:32 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Quoting 1221. LargoFl:
these artic blasts come down thru canada..why dont they come down thru alaska into the pacific so the artic blast moves into california,THEN they would get their rains...


Because we don't want to freeze our A$$ off. The big ridge of High pressure might have something to do with it.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4946
1222. Astrometeor
7:30 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Quoting 1221. LargoFl:
these artic blasts come down thru canada..why dont they come down thru alaska into the pacific so the artic blast moves into california,THEN they would get their rains...


Not necessarily. These last two blasts have barely given me any precipitation. The cold air associated with these fronts is really dry.

Otherwise, you should go complain to Mr. Blocking High out there over the west...
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 8301
1221. LargoFl
7:27 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
these artic blasts come down thru canada..why dont they come down thru alaska into the pacific so the artic blast moves into california,THEN they would get their rains...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33491
1220. Astrometeor
7:27 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Quoting 1216. Doppler22:
Interesting to see this map this early in the year. I don't normally notice it until later in the year when it is much more shaded. Wonder where the darkest red will be shaded this year...



I wish they would have a yearly/monthly picture of all of the storm reports they received. Talk about colorful.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 8301
1219. LargoFl
7:25 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
7-day Tampa bay area...................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33491
1218. Astrometeor
7:25 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Quoting 1206. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
they get colder then they forecast next

weather almost never exact


That first Arctic blast they had predicted a low of 8 at the beginning. It ended up being -3 for me. Second Arctic blast said 5, I recorded 0. Third Arctic blast is up, interesting to see if the warm bias continues.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 8301
1217. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:25 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Quoting 1214. Astrometeor:


If that could come up north a little more, there's some nice frigid temperatures waiting in Middle Tennessee.
it could still change yet but iam not thinking much higher up it comes from whats showing
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52397
1216. Doppler22
7:25 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Interesting to see this map this early in the year. I don't normally notice it until later in the year when it is much more shaded. Wonder where the darkest red will be shaded this year...

Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 3269
1215. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:22 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Quoting 1213. ricderr:
yes but this is not the place for that subject
up top it says dr jeff master not rev jeff masters







darn it...and i had jokes all lined up.......oh look....a door :-)
I seen yer QOD iam coming over in a minute get ready
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52397
1214. Astrometeor
7:21 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Quoting 1212. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hr 78 forecast sim rad



If that could come up north a little more, there's some nice frigid temperatures waiting in Middle Tennessee.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 8301
1213. ricderr
7:20 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
yes but this is not the place for that subject
up top it says dr jeff master not rev jeff masters







darn it...and i had jokes all lined up.......oh look....a door :-)
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 669 Comments: 20205
1212. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:18 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
hr 78 forecast sim rad

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52397
1211. Climate175
7:16 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Quoting 1168. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yes but this is not the place for that subject
up top it says dr jeff master not rev jeff masters
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 2303
1210. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:13 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52397
1209. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:12 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52397
1208. Haiyan2013
7:12 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Anybody ready for the Groundhog day storm of 2014? :)
Member Since: January 8, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 337
1207. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:10 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52397
1206. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:10 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
Quoting 1205. Astrometeor:
NWS changed their forecast for today (after the temperatures exceeded the original):

they get colder then they forecast next

weather almost never exact
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52397
1205. Astrometeor
7:06 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
NWS changed their forecast for today (after the temperatures exceeded the original):

Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 8301
1204. pottery
7:05 PM GMT on January 25, 2014
A Blast from the Past….


Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23111

Viewing: 1254 - 1204

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.