2013: Earth's 4th Warmest Year on Record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:26 PM GMT on January 21, 2014

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Earth had another top-ten hottest year on record in 2013, which ranked as the 4th warmest year since records began in 1880, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center said today. NASA rated 2013 as the 7th warmest on record. The disagreement between the two data sets is minor, since the 2013 numbers were within 3% of each other. Including 2013, nine out of ten of the warmest years in the 134-year period of record have occurred during the 21st century (2001–2013). Only one year during the 20th century--1998--was warmer than 2013. Global land temperatures were the 4th warmest on record during 2013, and ocean temperatures were the 8th warmest. Global satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere were the 4th or 9th warmest in the 35-year record, according to UAH and RSS, respectively. Following the two wettest years on record (2010 and 2011), 2013 joined 2012 as having near-average precipitation on balance across the globe. A NASA press release issued today noted that "weather patterns always will cause fluctuations in average temperatures from year to year, but the continued increases in greenhouse gas levels in Earth's atmosphere are driving a long-term rise in global temperatures. Each successive year will not necessarily be warmer than the year before, but with the current level of greenhouse gas emissions, scientists expect each successive decade to be warmer than the previous. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that traps heat and plays a major role in controlling changes to Earth's climate. It occurs naturally and also is emitted by the burning of fossil fuels for energy. Driven by increasing man-made emissions, the level of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere presently is higher than at any time in the last 800,000 years."


Figure 1. Departure of global temperature from average for 2013. Australia had its warmest year on record, and portions of Indonesia, Central Asia, and East Africa were also record warm. The only land area cooler than average was in the Central U.S., and no parts of the globe were record cold. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.


Figure 2. Earth's top ten warmest years since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA and NASA. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Earth's departure in temperature from a 1951 - 1980 average during the period 1880 - 2013, according to NOAA and NASA. Image credit: NASA.

NOVA show on Super Typhoon Haiyan: Wednesday at 9 pm
The PBS NOVA series is airing a show on Super Typhoon Haiyan called "Killer Typhoon", on Wednesday, January 22 at 9 pm ET on most PBS stations. I've had a chance to preview the episode, and thought it was well-done, with impressive storm surge footage and excellent graphics. Commentary is provided by hurricane experts Kerry Emanuel and Jeff Weber, storm surge expert Dr. Hal Needham, and the current head of the American Meteorological Society, Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd. Here's the web site for more info: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/earth/killer-typhoon.html.

Jeff Masters

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313. cRRKampen
5:50 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
297. StormTrackerScott, as I have a visit, no time to say more than: thank you very much for the wonderful reply. Corrollary to '94 well found!
Member Since: April 3, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 156
312. Climate175
3:35 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
RIP 1990-1999.
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3367
311. jpsb
2:34 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting 302. biff4ugo:
Good Morning/Evening.

It looked like the one cold anomaly for 2013 was in Antarctica right over the PIG. I also read that the Pine Island's slide into the ocean was self sustaining and may not be slowed by cooler temps. Anybody else know about that?




And then again maybe not
Lead author, Dr Pierre Dutrieux, from British Antarctic Survey (BAS) said: "We found ocean melting of the glacier was the lowest ever recorded, and less than half of that observed in 2010. This enormous, and unexpected, variability contradicts the widespread view that a simple and steady ocean warming in the region is eroding the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

One cold anomaly? Over the Pine Island Glacier?

Antarctica sets low temperature record of -135.8 degrees
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1174
310. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:06 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
309. hurricanes2018
1:55 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
lots of snow here!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13258
308. StormTrackerScott
1:52 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Ridge over Alaska and another south of Greenland spells cold weather for the US for the next 2 weeks. I was hoping for a warm up but that just doesn't appear to be the case.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
307. Naga5000
1:49 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting 306. StormTrackerScott:


Good morning Naga5000.


Good cold morning!
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3234
306. StormTrackerScott
1:48 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting 304. Naga5000:


Dis you explore the link? Did you look at the methodology used? Did you see where the data came from? Did you notice this particular graph was the average of Ecuador as a whole? Did you see they had separate graphs by city?

Don't shoot the messenger and don't be so angry because your opinion is not in line with the observations. It's going to be okay. :)


Good morning Naga5000.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
305. StormTrackerScott
1:47 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting 303. biff4ugo:
California sure wishes they had a chunk of that snow in the east.
Their lack of snow pack is a slow motion disaster. I pray this kink in the jet moves on and brings back snow and rain to them. They will be wishing for those Colorado floods, come spring.
With the fires, they may be wishing for them now.


Tell me about it. Looks dry for the next 2 weeks.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
304. Naga5000
1:46 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting 300. CycloneOz:


This data you have found goes back to 1890 for Ecuador. Uh huh...okay.

Where exactly...because there are three distinct tropical zones here in Ecuador.

I prefaced my report with an altitude of 8600 feet. This is one zone.

Then...there are the valley zones (all lumped into one) and the Amazonia zone.

Once again, back to your data...it only shows one data point.

Now...you have two (via me.)

Where's the 3rd?

MY POINT: Looks like the climate scientists are NOT HERE!



Dis you explore the link? Did you look at the methodology used? Did you see where the data came from? Did you notice this particular graph was the average of Ecuador as a whole? Did you see they had separate graphs by city?

Don't shoot the messenger and don't be so angry because your opinion is not in line with the observations. It's going to be okay. :)
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3234
303. biff4ugo
1:43 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
California sure wishes they had a chunk of that snow in the east.
Their lack of snow pack is a slow motion disaster. I pray this kink in the jet moves on and brings back snow and rain to them. They will be wishing for those Colorado floods, come spring.
With the fires, they may be wishing for them now.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1543
302. biff4ugo
1:38 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Good Morning/Evening.

Is the Antarctic Sea Ice extent expanding because the land ice meltwater on the ocean surface freezes easier?

It looked like the one cold anomaly for 2013 was in Antarctica right over the PIG. I also read that the Pine Island's slide into the ocean was self sustaining and may not be slowed by cooler temps. Anybody else know about that?

Why is there such a strong and consistent bias in temperature between NOAA measurements and NASA? Are there hot gages in one, or a warmer sea temp algorithm?
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1543
301. ILwthrfan
1:35 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Love this pattern we are in...

120 GFS snowfall forecast. Yes.

Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1456
300. CycloneOz
1:27 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting 285. Naga5000:


Have no fear, the data is here.




Link
Just like most places in the world, the trend is evident in the regional record as well.

The link has historical data for the major cities as well. Where are you at in Ecuador? My wife used to teach there years ago.


This data you have found goes back to 1890 for Ecuador. Uh huh...okay.

Where exactly...because there are three distinct tropical zones here in Ecuador.

I prefaced my report with an altitude of 8600 feet. This is one zone.

Then...there are the valley zones (all lumped into one) and the Amazonia zone.

Once again, back to your data...it only shows one data point.

Now...you have two (via me.)

Where's the 3rd?

MY POINT: Looks like the climate scientists are NOT HERE!

Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3617
299. StormTrackerScott
1:18 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Also looks very wet across Northern & Western Australia.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
298. StormTrackerScott
1:16 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Meanwhile Australia is on Fire! Looks at these temps! Yikes!

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
297. StormTrackerScott
1:11 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting 295. Envoirment:
December was the 4th warmest on record in the UK and January has been/looks to continue to be above average too. Quite a stark contrast to last year's winter where we had weeks of freezing temps and huge snow drifts even into March! Not one cold spell either this winter, which is a shame. :(


From JB. Get ready because here it comes!

WINTER COMES TO EUROPE( WESTERN)
January 21 08:46 PM
Brutal cold has extended west into Scandinavia from its Asian source, but the mild and sometimes wild pattern that has dominated western Europe this winter is starting to turn a bit. This happend in the winter of 1994, as it was mild in January and cold in February. Yet another link to one of our winter analogs here in the states.
One thing we can not seem to do is develop any kind of major backing of the Asian ridge west into Iceland and Greenland. The very warm water in the N pac means that the blocking that has developed this year is over Alaska and over the top to north Asia. Chances are the fast jet on the eastern side of the eastern N American trough is helping stoke the ridge south of it ( subsidence part of the jet) and enhance the northeast Atlantic low. This turns southeast over the ridge toward Europe, but it keeps much of the air in Europe Atlantic in origin.
However the means the next 15 days show that the trough is going to dive southeast in the means over western Europe. The way western Europe gets very cold is to have blocking over Greenland and Iceland and this allows troughs to dive south thru Scandinavia and then turn southwest, with arctic air
This is not the case now

Days 1-5


Days 6-10


Days 11-15


What happens here will produce heavy snows in eastern and central interior Europe. Maritime air crashes into the arctic air from the east ( remember those big positives develop big highs, with east winds on their south side and southeast winds from Asian toward Europe on the west side)
So we see alot of snow the next 8 days.. the snow in the UK is from changes to snow mainly over the high ground, as the storms come over the UK with plenty of maritime air

Snowfall Map



meanwhile temps week 1 look like this.. then they cool further week two in the west..but you can see how nasty it is in the est


Then BAM!


The total is the coldest 16 day period of the winter..But as of now the kind of pattern we have seen to send the west into the deep feeze is not yet there. Certainly colder, but then again the Feb 94 analog was indicating that

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
296. cRRKampen
1:08 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting 295. Envoirment:
December was the 4th warmest on record in the UK and January has been/looks to continue to be above average too. Quite a stark contrast to last year's winter where we had weeks of freezing temps and huge snow drifts even into March! Not one cold spell either this winter, which is a shame. :(

Same thing for Holland, also it was the third Dec in a row to enter a top ten position. Though Dec '10 came in a coldest top ten position.
January will average mild too. But there is some suspense as a pool of Scandi deep freeze is inching westwards. Models suggest it will halt over or slightly north of Holland though. And as the US plunges in again that will restart those powerful Atlantic westerlies.
Member Since: April 3, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 156
295. Envoirment
1:04 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
December was the 4th warmest on record in the UK and January has been/looks to continue to be above average too. Quite a stark contrast to last year's winter where we had weeks of freezing temps and huge snow drifts even into March! Not one cold spell either this winter, which is a shame. :(
Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 511
294. StormTrackerScott
1:04 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
0Z Euro temps! Lord Have Mercy!


Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
293. StormTrackerScott
1:00 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting 290. StormWx:
FL Temps :) Brrrr.



39 here in Longwood and forecast calls for 33 tonight. We might actually get a freeze tonight. First one this winter.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
292. StormTrackerScott
12:58 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Not much rain across the US per the 0Z Euro except for FL. Could be a wet period coming across FL with such a deep persistant trough across the central & eastern US.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
291. StormWx
12:53 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
The end of January is going out with a chill.

Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 897
290. StormWx
12:51 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
FL Temps :) Brrrr.

Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 897
289. oldnewmex
12:48 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Meanwhile, out West...
California statewide snowpack water content currently stands at 13 percent of normal for this date.
Sierra Nevada snowpack
Member Since: January 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 165
288. SFLWeatherman
12:47 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
lol going down to 33 tonight!! :) i will bring him back to life! :P
Quoting 279. Sfloridacat5:


Here's one of them (frostyman). Maybe tonight S.Fl will bring him back to life.
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4386
286. GeorgiaStormz
12:16 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting 261. Jedkins01:
Just a heads up for fellow MET students, I am taking my first course in atmospheric dynamics, and for those who say you hate math, be prepared to study up on your math skills, because the schedule for the entire first 1/3 of this class is substantial difficulty mathematics before we even do any meteorology.

Make sure you know everything soundly through Calculus and a little bit of ODE is being introduced.

Don't worry as much about Trig substitution and numerous integration methods though. But be prepared to derive a lot of equations and formulas using methods in Calculus. Definitely know series and summations as well.

Again, you'll have to learn to not hate math, because deriving calculus is a lot harder than just taking derivatives and integrals of functions, and we do a LOT of deriving so far in my MET classes. Although its more difficult, it helps you learn the math better and how to apply it practically better.

At least it does for me anyway.




great...
atleast i like math
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9719
285. Naga5000
12:06 PM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting 283. CycloneOz:
Current Conditions at 8600 feet in Ecuador:

The same as yesterday, the day before...going on 10 years now...the same every day.

High 72
Low 59

Mostly cloudy, chance of rain.

Climate change? Not here.

I can't find any climate change scientists. I've been looking for them.

My quality of life just increased, however.
Grits are made of hominy. Arroz para morocho is lightly ground hominy.

I have to grind it down further to get course ground grits.

Mine are not magic grits. My grits take 45 minutes to cook to perfection.

I take pride in my grits, just like any other self-respecting Southerner.


Have no fear, the data is here.




Link
Just like most places in the world, the trend is evident in the regional record as well.

The link has historical data for the major cities as well. Where are you at in Ecuador? My wife used to teach there years ago.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3234
284. westscotweather
11:45 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting 269. Patrap:


As soaring greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions drove global CO2 concentrations past 400 parts per million in May 2013, shell-shocked climate scientists warned that unless we urgently adopt "radical" measures to suppress GHG emissions (50 percent cuts in emissions by 2020, 90 percent by 2050) we're headed for an average temperature rise of 3 degrees or 4 degrees Celsius before the end of the century. Four degrees might not seem like much, but make no mistake: Such an increase will be catastrophic for our species and most others. Humans have never experienced a rise of 4 degrees in average temperatures. But our ancestors experienced a four-degree cooler world. That was during the last ice age, the Wisconsin Stage (26,000 to 13,300 years ago). At that time, there were two miles of ice on top of where I'm sitting right now in New York City. In a four-degree warmer world "Heat waves of undreamt-of-ferocity will scorch the Earth's surface as the climate becomes hotter than anything humans have ever experienced. ... There will be "no ice at either pole." "Global warming of this magnitude would leave the whole planet without ice for the first time in nearly 40 million years." Sea levels will rise 25 meters - submerging Florida, Bangladesh, New York, Washington DC, London, Shanghai, the coastlines and cities where nearly half the world's people presently live. Freshwater aquifiers will dry up; snow caps and glaciers will evaporate - and with them, the rivers that feed the billions of Asia, South America and California. The "wholesale destruction of ecosystems" will bring on the collapse of agriculture around much of the world. "Russia's harsh cold will be a distant memory" as "temperatures in Europe will resemble the Middle East. ... The Sahara will have crossed the Strait of Gibraltar and be working its way north into the heart of Spain and Portugal. ... With food supplies crashing, humanity's grip on its future will become ever more tentative." Yet long before the temperature increase hits four degrees, the melting will have begun thawing the permafrost of the Arctic, releasing vast quantities of methane buried under the Arctic seas and the Siberian and North American tundra, accelerating GHG concentrations beyond any human power to stop runaway warming and sealing our fate as a species.

..more'


There would be no ice at either pole with a 3-4C rise? Yeah I guess Vostok station on Antarctica will become the ideal summer holiday destination, 24 hour sunbathing and all. Who writes that shrill nonsense?It's hyperbolic scare quotes like the above that give the factual scientific basis of AGW a bad name.

Anyway, marginal chances of breaking our winter snow drought tomorrow from a weak occlusion crossing British Isles, models mostly teasing the possibility of wintry weather over the next ten days but each shot is marginal. Cold rain seems more likely.
Member Since: December 4, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 66
283. CycloneOz
11:40 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
Current Conditions at 8600 feet in Ecuador:

The same as yesterday, the day before...going on 10 years now...the same every day.

High 72
Low 59

Mostly cloudy, chance of rain.

Climate change? Not here.

I can't find any climate change scientists. I've been looking for them.

My quality of life just increased, however.
Grits are made of hominy. Arroz para morocho is lightly ground hominy.

I have to grind it down further to get course ground grits.

Mine are not magic grits. My grits take 45 minutes to cook to perfection.

I take pride in my grits, just like any other self-respecting Southerner.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3617
282. VR46L
11:35 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
Just a drive by and I don't know how to embed
Its from the Nasa site
http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003800/a003 887/

GEOS-5 Model of 2005 Hurricane Season


Back to lurkin

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6820
281. Sfloridacat5
11:33 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
Cold air pooling up down in S.W. Florida. Expected 38 in Fort Myers with temperatures near freezing inland with frost likely.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6040
280. TroutMadness
11:26 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Forgot this link.

The 10 Snowiest Colleges in the US


LOL, I guess they didn't look at Michigan Tech - the record high is 355", record low is 81" and the Keweenaw has had 201" so far this year and 38" reported on the ground.... just to the north a few miles. Very kool area, at least in the summer when I visit lol
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 58
279. Sfloridacat5
11:25 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting 266. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Whoever posted that image of the frosty man got recognition on NWS Miami's twitter page, and by AccuWeather.


Here's one of them (frostyman). Maybe tonight S.Fl will bring him back to life.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6040
278. CycloneOz
11:08 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
Doug! I have ground some grits!
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3617
277. aislinnpaps
11:06 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 29 degrees with a wind chill of 28. We have a chance of snow or freezing rain tomorrow night and a chance of snow on Friday morning. Of course for Louisiana it's snow flurries, not accumulating snow.

Hope you feel better soon, Zac.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: creamed chipped beef or sausage gravy over biscuits, Cajun Breakfast Casserole, Apple-Pecan Baked Oatmeal, Green Chili Breakfast Burrito Casserole, Cinnamon Pecan Rolls, Pumpkin Pie Coffee Cake with Pecan Crumble, cinnamon oatmeal with bruleed Bananas, Red-Pepper omelet, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Peppermint White Hot Chocolate, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3115
276. ZacWeatherKidUK
10:59 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
Good morning everyone!
I'm currently ill with the flu, but at least it means a day at home :)
It was a beautiful day here earlier but the clouds have returned now, still above normal temps at 7°c.

UK rain radar


View from my house. (I don't know why it's sideways!)
Member Since: December 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 87
275. Tropicsweatherpr
10:31 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting 273. Gearsts:


MJO/Kelvin waves,you have to love them and their extremes. Let's see what happens in the next 7 days to see if it continues to rise.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13992
274. hydrus
10:03 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting 272. TropicalAnalystwx13:
January is shaping up to be the coldest in a long time for locations east of the Rocky Mountains. The GFS shows continued shots of arctic air through early February.
Tell me..Its 4 degrees here and 10 to 20.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20487
273. Gearsts
9:55 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1412
272. TropicalAnalystwx13
6:18 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
January is shaping up to be the coldest in a long time for locations east of the Rocky Mountains. The GFS shows continued shots of arctic air through early February.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31415
271. Patrap
6:13 AM GMT on January 22, 2014


Meanwhile in the real Cryosphere Science world.

nsidc.org

National Snow & Ice Data Center

CATEGORY ARCHIVES: ANTARCTICA
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
270. jpsb
6:00 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
There will be "no ice at either pole." "Global warming of this magnitude would leave the whole planet without ice for the first time in nearly 40 million years."


Meanwhile back in the real world




Antarctic sea ice hit 35-year record high Saturday
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1174
269. Patrap
5:42 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting 869. ColoradoBob1:
The most important climate change article ever posted , it's long and it's well written , please read all of it :

Green Capitalism: The God That Failed

Link


As soaring greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions drove global CO2 concentrations past 400 parts per million in May 2013, shell-shocked climate scientists warned that unless we urgently adopt "radical" measures to suppress GHG emissions (50 percent cuts in emissions by 2020, 90 percent by 2050) we're headed for an average temperature rise of 3 degrees or 4 degrees Celsius before the end of the century. Four degrees might not seem like much, but make no mistake: Such an increase will be catastrophic for our species and most others. Humans have never experienced a rise of 4 degrees in average temperatures. But our ancestors experienced a four-degree cooler world. That was during the last ice age, the Wisconsin Stage (26,000 to 13,300 years ago). At that time, there were two miles of ice on top of where I'm sitting right now in New York City. In a four-degree warmer world "Heat waves of undreamt-of-ferocity will scorch the Earth's surface as the climate becomes hotter than anything humans have ever experienced. ... There will be "no ice at either pole." "Global warming of this magnitude would leave the whole planet without ice for the first time in nearly 40 million years." Sea levels will rise 25 meters - submerging Florida, Bangladesh, New York, Washington DC, London, Shanghai, the coastlines and cities where nearly half the world's people presently live. Freshwater aquifiers will dry up; snow caps and glaciers will evaporate - and with them, the rivers that feed the billions of Asia, South America and California. The "wholesale destruction of ecosystems" will bring on the collapse of agriculture around much of the world. "Russia's harsh cold will be a distant memory" as "temperatures in Europe will resemble the Middle East. ... The Sahara will have crossed the Strait of Gibraltar and be working its way north into the heart of Spain and Portugal. ... With food supplies crashing, humanity's grip on its future will become ever more tentative." Yet long before the temperature increase hits four degrees, the melting will have begun thawing the permafrost of the Arctic, releasing vast quantities of methane buried under the Arctic seas and the Siberian and North American tundra, accelerating GHG concentrations beyond any human power to stop runaway warming and sealing our fate as a species.

..more'
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
268. Astrometeor
5:27 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting 267. BaltimoreBrian:
When the norm of the partition becomes infinitely small.....


-_- Shut it. I ain't ready yet. Want to focus right now on my integration and logistical curves.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 95 Comments: 9779
267. BaltimoreBrian
5:21 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
When the norm of the partition becomes infinitely small.....
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8554
266. TropicalAnalystwx13
5:20 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
Whoever posted that image of the frosty man got recognition on NWS Miami's twitter page, and by AccuWeather.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31415
265. Jedkins01
5:15 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting 263. Astrometeor:


I loved math until BC Calc this year, Jedkins.

*cries softly* I've heard that the hardest part in BC Calc was series and summations...



It is, I honestly hate series and summations, mainly because it can take a lot of working out to find a pattern. Just the fact that they are continuous functions is psychologically depressing even though you don't need to find infinite terms lol.

The worst is definitely power series though, they are brutal.

The worst of all is solving O.D.E.'s using power series, it takes like 2 full pages of work to find a solution for one problem, it does make you want to cry.

Thankfully I haven't done anything with power series in meteorology, yet anyway.


I think the other reason I don't like them is that they are so dry, they remind of an application of mathematics that ONLY math lovers like, lol. They are important though in meteorology for finding approximations in use for computer models though.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7266
264. Jedkins01
5:10 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
000
FXUS62 KTAE 220248
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
948 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Current forecast remains on track for the rest of this evening.
Just made a few tweaks to the hourly grids to reflect current
forecast thinking, and dropped the Wind Chill Advisory for Dixie,
Taylor, and Lafayette counties in Florida. Based on latest model
guidance and factoring in upstream observations, it does not
appear wind chill advisory criteria (wind chill values less than
20 degrees) will be met for the above listed counties.

Otherwise expect a cold and windy night. An elongated surface
high pressure will continue to slide eastward overnight, but the
pressure gradient will remain sufficiently tight to keep the wind
gusty overnight. Strong cold air advection behind the cold
frontal passage earlier this evening will allow for temperatures
to drop rapidly over the next couple of hours. Although the wind
is making it feel colder, it is actually limiting the actual
temperature from dropping further. This is because when upper level
winds are mixed down to the surface, they warm adiabatically
offsetting the radiative processes of cooling. Stay Warm!


I love how the NWS here on campus will throw in some nice explanations to the public, I've met a handful of the forecasters here, they are great people.

Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7266
263. Astrometeor
5:10 AM GMT on January 22, 2014
Quoting 261. Jedkins01:
Just a heads up for fellow MET students, I am taking my first course in atmospheric dynamics, and for those who say you hate math, be prepared to study up on your math skills, because the schedule for the entire first 1/3 of this class is substantial difficulty mathematics before we even do any meteorology.

Make sure you know everything soundly through Calculus and a little bit of ODE is being introduced.

Don't worry as much about Trig substitution and numerous integration methods though. But be prepared to derive a lot of equations and formulas using methods in Calculus. Definitely know series and summations as well.

Again, you'll have to learn to not hate math, because deriving calculus is a lot harder than just taking derivatives and integrals of functions, and we do a LOT of deriving so far in my MET classes. Although its more difficult, it helps you learn the math better and how to apply it practically better.

At least it does for me anyway.



I loved math until BC Calc this year, Jedkins.

*cries softly* I've heard that the hardest part in BC Calc was series and summations...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.