Extreme Cold Wave Invades Eastern Half of U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:33 PM GMT on January 07, 2014

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A remarkable Arctic cold blast--the most severe since 1996 or 1994 in much of the U.S.--is smashing daily low temperature records across the Midwest, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast today. The counter-clockwise flow of air around powerful Winter Storm Ion, a 961 mb low centered just east of Hudson Bay at 9 am EST, is pushing frigid air from northern Canada deep into the U.S., bringing freezing temperatures as far south as Central Florida. Strong winds of 15 - 25 mph are accompanying the cold blast, and have brought dangerously cold wind chills of -30°F or lower to at least nineteen states. The coldest winds chills on Tuesday morning were over Southern Michigan, Northeast Indiana, Northwest Ohio, and Southern Ontario. The temperature in Detroit bottomed out at -14° on Tuesday morning--their 16th coldest day in recorded history--and the wind chill hit a remarkable -41°. The high temperature in Detroit on Tuesday is expected to remain below zero; the city's list of days with a high temperature below zero is a short one, with only three such days in recorded history. The cold air has eased some in Chicago, which had a low temperature Tuesday morning of -11°. Chicago's high temperature hit -1° on Monday; the noontime temperature on Monday was a remarkable -14°F, the 7th coldest noontime temperature ever measured in the Windy City. From the 10 EST Tuesday NWS Storm Summary, here are the coldest wind chill readings observed so far in the cold wave:

Comertown, MT: -63
Rolla, ND: -60
Glenwood, MN: -56
Summit, SD: -56
Waupaca, WI: -56
Ironwood, MI: -54
Mount Mitchell, NC: -50
Dubuque, IA: -49
Moline, IL: -46
Toledo, OH: -45
Ingalls Field, VA: -45
Valparaiso, IN: -44
Canaan Heights, WV: -44
Brownlee, NE: -43
Clarion, PA: -42
Oakland, MD: -41
Jamestown, NY: -38
Garden City, KS: -33
St. Charles, MO: -31


Figure 1. A frigid morning in the Windy City: Chicago seen from the air on January 7, 2014, after the low temperature hit -11°F. Image credit: Hank Cain

Worst weather of the day: Buffalo, NY
My vote for worst weather of the day goes to Buffalo, New York, where heavy snow was falling at 9 am with a temperature of -6°F. West winds of 24 mph gusting to 33 mph created a dangerously cold wind chill of -32°, and a wind gust of 60 mph was recorded at 3:26 am. West-southwest winds blowing along the length of Lake Erie are creating an epic lake effect blizzard in the Buffalo region, which may see snow accumulations of up to three feet before the storm ends on Wednesday. An ice jam has also formed on the Niagara River, leading to issuance of a flash flood warning for low-lying areas along the river.


Figure 2. A cold day on Lake Ontario. Sea smoke is visible over the lake in this shot taken three miles west of Pultneyville, NY, on January 7, 2014. The outside air temp was 1°F. Image credit: wunderphotographer JACKMAY52.


Figure 3. A cold day in the Great Lakes: Arctic air flowing over the Great Lakes on January 6, 2014 creates bands of lake-effect snow snows over and in the lee of the lakes. Image credit: NASA.

Weather whiplash in New York City
New York City is enduring a classic case of weather whiplash due to this week's wild weather. Freezing rain on Sunday morning caused a Delta flight to skid off a runway at JFK airport. But on Monday morning, a surge of warm air riding northeastwards in advance of Winter Storm Ion boosted the temperature in the Big Apple to 55°. The cold front associated with Ion passed though the city Monday afternoon, allowing the low temperature on Tuesday morning to plummet to 4°, beating the record for the date of 6° set in 1896.

The culprit: cold air from Canada and the polar vortex
In the winter, the 24-hour darkness over the snow and ice-covered polar regions allows a huge dome of cold air to form. This cold air increases the difference in temperature between the pole and the Equator, and leads to an intensification of the strong upper-level winds of the jet stream. The strong jet stream winds act to isolate the polar regions from intrusions of warmer air, creating a "polar vortex" of frigid counter-clockwise swirling air over the Arctic. The chaotic flow of the air in the polar vortex sometimes allows a large dip (a sharp trough of low pressure) to form in the jet stream over North America, allowing the Arctic air that had been steadily cooling in the northern reaches of Canada in areas with 24-hour darkness to spill southwards deep into the United States. In theory, the 1.5°F increase in global surface temperatures that Earth has experienced since 1880 due to global warming should reduce the frequency of 1-in-20 year extreme cold weather events like the current one. However, it is possible that climate change could alter jet stream circulation patterns in a way that could increase the incidence of unusual jet stream "kinks" that allow cold air to spill southwards over the Eastern U.S., a topic I have blogged about extensively, and plan to say more about later this week.


Video 1. I appeared on Democracy Now this morning to discuss the cold wave, the polar vortex, and possible linkages between climate change and wild jet stream behavior.


Figure 4. From wunderground's Jet Stream page, we see the large dip in the jet stream over the U.S. responsible for this week's extreme Arctic air outbreak.

Siberians agree: North American winters are impressive!
The last time I experienced weather this cold was on January 18, 1994. I walked across the University of Michigan campus in Ann Arbor that evening in bitter cold temperatures of ten below zero, driving winds, and lake effect snow--which the road salt had absolutely no effect on. I made it to Hill Auditorium to hear a concert by the Siberian throat singers of Tuva. After performing one of their songs that was sung in their native language, the singers explained through a translator that the lyrics described the story of their epic voyage that day from Dayton, Ohio northwards on I-75 to Michigan in a blinding snow storm with visibilities near zero and intensely cold temperatures. Their vehicle spun out into the ditch, but they were able to push it out and make it to the concert on time. "Siberia is known for its brutal winters," the translator said, "but North American winters are just as impressive!" The next morning the temperature bottomed out at -20° in Detroit, the third coldest reading in city history.

Winter storm Christina (formerly Hercules) pounds the UK with huge waves
The winter storm (dubbed "Hercules") that hit the U.S. last week morphed into a massive 950 mb low pressure system to the east of the UK on Monday. The storm, called "Christina" by the Free University of Berlin, generated huge waves of up to 8 meters (27 feet) that battered the southwest coasts of the UK on Monday, causing damaging coastal flooding, according to the BBC. Huge waves from the storm also battered Portugal, injuring four and damaging about two dozen cars. The unusually contorted jet stream pattern associated with Christina pulled warm air to the north over Western Europe on Monday. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Amsterdam had its warmest January day on record Monday: 14°C (57°F), and the temperature hit a sizzling 26.2°C (79°F) in Murcia, Tocino Bridge Station, Spain--not bad for the core of winter!


Video 2. Impressive waves from Winter Storm Christina (formerly "Hercules") pound the UK on Monday, January 6, 2014.

Jeff Masters

Natures Crystal (huba)
Frosted Glass backed-up by the sun.
Natures Crystal
Through Wonderland (whiterain)
At a nose-biting 2 degrees near the top of the mountain, the trees no longer have wisping hairs of snow brushing past, but are fully frosted over in decorative white. T'was a perfect day for skiing, and perfect views to accompany.
Through Wonderland
City Sundog (bbend)
I have never seen as many sundogs in a whole winter as the amount I've seen thus far this winter! Temp was -19 but the windchill was only about -37 as comparison to yesterday's -54 for us! Need a weather category for sundogs!
City Sundog

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457. lifeinanortherntown
10:30 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Quoting 411. CybrTeddy:
Wouldn't be surprised if the sun shot out another powerful X-flare today from AR1944.


Happened last night. BIG one -- seven times the size of earth. NASA says Northern lights may be as far south as Colorado in a day or so!

"Solar astronomers have been keeping an eye on giant sunspot AR1944, and as it turned towards Earth today, the sunspot erupted with a powerful X1.2-class flare. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center said the flare sparked a “strong radio blackout” today, and they have issued a 24 hour “moderate” magnetic storm watch indicating a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the flare may be heading towards Earth."

Read more: http://www.universetoday.com/107864/monster-sunspo t-erupts-with-an-x-class-flare/#ixzz2pqfwJruw
Member Since: January 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
456. hydrus
4:02 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Quoting 452. TroutMadness:


lol you have gone by me many times then (Zug Island)
Yep. Have fueled up near there, and always saw ya on the radars..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19550
455. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:01 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
454. weathermanwannabe
3:59 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
438. Luisport 10:24 AM EST on January 08, 2014
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.


Fascinating; I guess I will know that we are really trouble if I start to see Auroras in the skies over Florida..................
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
453. LargoFl
3:54 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
12z gfs just coming out...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
452. TroutMadness
3:54 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Quoting hydrus:
I have been on the Detroit River many times while working as a merchant marine during the early and mid 80,s. It is rough in some areas to say the least, while across the river in Windsor seems clean and tranquil...go figure..:)


lol you have gone by me many times then (Zug Island)
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 55
451. LargoFl
3:51 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
450. PalmBeachWeather
3:46 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Quoting 445. VR46L:


I don't understand what the **** he is doing there !

That country leader is clearly a megalomaniac, did you hear what he did to his uncle ?

I don't think any right minded person is comfortable with the North Korea issue !

Absolutely beautiful day here saw the Golden disc all day !But a cooler air is around today !
I heard about all of the hungry dogs VR... It hasn't been proven yet
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5750
449. PalmBeachWeather
3:45 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Quoting 443. hydrus:
I never found Rodman to be intelligent, and if he is, he is a strange one.
Now he may put a life in danger.
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5750
448. hydrus
3:45 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Quoting 444. indianrivguy:


I think they should keep him...

We said the same thing over breakfast this morning..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19550
447. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:44 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Quoting 442. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it would be if it all fell in 6 hrs
10 inch per hr snowfall rate

I've never seen or heard of that amount nor no one else

be a quick 5+
feet of snow
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52265
446. hydrus
3:44 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Quoting 441. TroutMadness:


I'm in the Detroit Metro Area(Downriver) and will be moving to our place in Grayling in Northern Michigan this year. Winters have been mild in southern Michigan too, I haven't ice fished down here in a while.. last winter was one of the best snowmobiling seasons in the Grayling area in years tho.
The wife's Dad is from Clarkesville, Tn
I have been on the Detroit River many times while working as a merchant marine during the early and mid 80,s. It is rough in some areas to say the least, while across the river in Windsor seems clean and tranquil...go figure..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19550
445. VR46L
3:44 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Quoting 440. PalmBeachWeather:
And one wrong word from Dennis Rodman could get many innocent people killed....Not the brightest bulb on the tree. He needs to come home and stay


I don't understand what the **** he is doing there !

That country leader is clearly a megalomaniac, did you hear what he did to his uncle ?

I don't think any right minded person is comfortable with the North Korea issue !

Absolutely beautiful day here saw the Golden disc all day !But a cooler air is around today !
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6613
444. indianrivguy
3:44 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Quoting 440. PalmBeachWeather:
And one wrong word from Dennis Rodman could get many innocent people killed....Not the brightest bulb on the tree. He needs to come home and stay


I think they should keep him...

Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2428
443. hydrus
3:41 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Quoting 440. PalmBeachWeather:
And one wrong word from Dennis Rodman could get many innocent people killed....Not the brightest bulb on the tree. He needs to come home and stay
I never found Rodman to be intelligent, and if he is, he is a strange one.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19550
442. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:40 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Quoting 435. Thunderfan:


100 cm of snow? Is that a lot? Never good with metric system. Maybe 100 cm of snow in Cuba would do it for me.
it would be if it all fell in 6 hrs
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52265
441. TroutMadness
3:38 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Quoting hydrus:
Tennessee has had 3 mild winters in a row. 2010 did have a couple of snow events. Two of those winters were so mild, long time residents a typical autumn season has more winter weather. I am from Florida, and I am learning how difficult winter can be.


I'm in the Detroit Metro Area(Downriver) and will be moving to our place in Grayling in Northern Michigan this year. Winters have been mild in southern Michigan too, I haven't ice fished down here in a while.. last winter was one of the best snowmobiling seasons in the Grayling area in years tho.
The wife's Dad is from Clarkesville, Tn
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 55
440. PalmBeachWeather
3:38 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
And one wrong word from Dennis Rodman could get many innocent people killed....Not the brightest bulb on the tree. He needs to come home and stay
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5750
439. hydrus
3:25 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Quoting 433. TroutMadness:


Sigh, I ain't got all the sleds running yet. I actually broke out the snoblower, haven't used in a couple of years(i normally like to shovel snow)
Tennessee has had 3 mild winters in a row. 2010 did have a couple of snow events. Two of those winters were so mild, long time residents a typical autumn season has more winter weather. I am from Florida, and I am learning how difficult winter can be.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19550
438. Luisport
3:24 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Space Weather Message Code: WATA50
Serial Number: 48
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 08 1214 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Jan 08: None (Below G1) Jan 09: G3 (Strong) Jan 10: G3 (Strong)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1948
437. Neapolitan
3:15 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Quoting 431. luvtogolf:


So charts are posted showing that we are having fewer frigid nights since 1070 in Detroit, Minneapolis and St. Louis. REALLY! Since 1970? And we because of that we say scream global warming. How old is the earth. I don't know, maybe billions of years old. That sample of time is so irrelevant it is irresponsible to post.
I don't see anyone screaming. I simply see a large set of charts showing warming across the US, and many others showing warming around the globe. Thus, "global warming". You can debate, if you wish, about the reasons why it's happening, and you can debate about just how bad it will get. But there's no credible debating that it's happening; to do so would be the very definition of "irresponsible".
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13277
436. 47n91w
3:02 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
I took the windspeed and temp data from a nearby weather station and plotted out wind chill values since Sunday, far northern Wisconsin:



I typo-ed the year on graph's title. 2014 still seems strange to write and type!
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
435. Thunderfan
3:00 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
so what will it take how large an event do you require for you to even consider climate change is behind it

ya want 200 mm of rain in an hr 100 cm of snow in 6 hrs

5 ef5 tornadoes on the ground at the same time

hail the size of small melons to fall on a city the size of dallas

whats it to take maybe 60 percent melt out of Greenland would be best that way it will really get the message out

I like the Greenland choice myself if its going to change us that will without a doubt do it


100 cm of snow? Is that a lot? Never good with metric system. Maybe 100 cm of snow in Cuba would do it for me.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 1 Comments: 308
434. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:58 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Quoting 431. luvtogolf:


So charts are posted showing that we are having fewer frigid nights since 1070 in Detroit, Minneapolis and St. Louis. REALLY! Since 1970? And we because of that we say scream global warming. How old is the earth. I don't know, maybe billions of years old. That sample of time is so irrelevant it is irresponsible to post.
so what will it take how large an event do you require for you to even consider climate change is behind it

ya want 200 mm of rain in an hr 100 cm of snow in 6 hrs

5 ef5 tornadoes on the ground at the same time

hail the size of small melons to fall on a city the size of dallas

whats it to take maybe 60 percent melt out of Greenland would be best that way it will really get the message out

I like the Greenland choice myself if its going to change us that will without a doubt do it
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52265
433. TroutMadness
2:58 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Quoting hydrus:
A large portion of the North American Continent is in for a rough winter..


Sigh, I ain't got all the sleds running yet. I actually broke out the snoblower, haven't used in a couple of years(i normally like to shovel snow)
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 55
432. hydrus
2:53 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Quoting 428. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


hr 69 of the 12z nam looks interesting

now that the bitter cold is ending we begin the focus on the next features


A large portion of the North American Continent is in for a rough winter..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19550
431. luvtogolf
2:49 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Quoting 395. Xeloi:


While science says that Global Warming is for real and I believe it... this plot doesn't real show andthing meaningful. Firstly, errors... when you fit a straight line, you get an error bar on the slope. This isn't shown, so we have no idea how significant the slope is. Moreover, it is REALLY hard to calculate this error bar, because the algorithms that fit straight lines are developed for Gaussian distributions of measurement errors, while for small numbers like these, we have Poisson distributions. Furthermore, values less than zero are not possible, which also skews the errors. Also... global warming predictions an INCREASE in extreme events, not a decrease -- cold snaps should be are included in that.

Maybe if we could see a map of the shift of number of sub-zero days, year-by-year, you might be able to assemble a statistically meaningful sample.

It might be more interesting to look at how the leaves are change later each year and the average snow line shifting northward.


So charts are posted showing that we are having fewer frigid nights since 1070 in Detroit, Minneapolis and St. Louis. REALLY! Since 1970? And we because of that we say scream global warming. How old is the earth. I don't know, maybe billions of years old. That sample of time is so irrelevant it is irresponsible to post.
Member Since: June 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 886
430. hydrus
2:48 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19550
428. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:44 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Quoting 427. hydrus:
Pneumonia, colds, respiratory infections, and possibly some severe weather..


hr 69 of the 12z nam looks interesting

now that the bitter cold is ending we begin the focus on the next features


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52265
427. hydrus
2:42 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Quoting 417. Thunderfan:


Looks familiar. Looks like flu season will really get going with roller coaster temps.
Pneumonia, colds, respiratory infections, and possibly some severe weather..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19550
426. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:41 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52265
425. LargoFl
2:37 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Got you Flu Shot Yet??...................................BREVARD COUNTY --
Brevard health officials are urging residents to get a flu shot. A recent spike in cases has them concerned a possible outbreak could be on the horizon.

Friday we learned of some serious cases on the Space Coast. Leaders are worried this could become a repeat of 2009. That's when tens of millions of people were infected during a flu pandemic.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
424. LargoFl
2:30 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Tampa Nws.............HARD FREEZE AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED...

.TEMPERATURES ARE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RISE EARLY THIS MORNING AND
MOST PLACES ARE NOW ABOVE FREEZING.

FLZ139-142-239-242-081315-
/O.EXP.KTBW.HZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140108T1200Z/
COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL CITRUS-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...YANKEETOWN...
CRYSTAL RIVER...HOMOSASSA...CHIEFLAND...BRONSON...WILLISTO N...
INVERNESS
711 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...HARD FREEZE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THIS MORNING CLIMBING INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 THIS AFTERNOON.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
423. LargoFl
2:28 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
some people in those zero temps might warm up tomorrow..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
422. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:28 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Quoting 417. Thunderfan:


Looks familiar. Looks like flu season will really get going with roller coaster temps.
roller coaster temps ya I say 48 if the forecasted high for sat with rain holds
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52265
421. LargoFl
2:26 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
420. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:26 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Quoting 411. CybrTeddy:
Wouldn't be surprised if the sun shot out another powerful X-flare today from AR1944.
how strong today is the question maybe x4 today
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52265
419. LargoFl
2:23 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
42 here now..............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
418. GeoffreyWPB
2:21 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
From the Miami NWS Disco...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO USHERING
IN THE COOLER AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH
TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL OF
A FEW WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSES ALOFT WITHIN THE SW FLOW PASSING
OVERHEAD WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES UP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. MODEL PRECIPITABLE
WATER OUTPUT REFLECTS THIS TREND AND INDICATES VALUES NEARING THE 2"
MARK OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY. A BLEND
OF THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE OUTPUT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
PROBABILITIES ALONG THE EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS...THEN
TAPERING OFF WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES EARLY...A
FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS EMBEDDED WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS AND COASTAL
LOCATIONS. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IT IN THIS PACKAGE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
HAVE REMAINED STEADY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S (BRIEFLY)/LOWER
40S IN GLADES/INTERIOR AREAS TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE EAST
COAST/METRO AREAS. AS THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH TODAY...THE
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE/DRAINAGE FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST IS
PROJECTED TO SHIFT ONSHORE...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WARMER AIR OFF
THE ADJACENT GULF STREAM WATERS TO SPREAD ASHORE. A BLEND OF THE
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAS AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOWER
70S ALONG EAST COAST TODAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD AND RAIN COVERAGE ANTICIPATED AND THE RECENT POOR
MODEL PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WE WILL SLIGHTLY
UNDERCUT THIS BY A FEW DEGREES WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN PALM BEACH
COUNTY REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW THE 70 DEG MARK THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA AND THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LIFT NORTHWARD. A COMBINATION OF
RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND WEAK SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AROUND 15 DEG WARMER THAN
AVERAGE EACH NIGHT.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
417. Thunderfan
2:21 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Quoting hydrus:
Next cold wave according to the GFS at 240 hours.


Looks familiar. Looks like flu season will really get going with roller coaster temps.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 1 Comments: 308
416. biff4ugo
2:19 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
I left my nook in the commuter van overnight and the cold killed the battery. That hasn't happened to me in Florida before.

Yikes Hydrus! That is some fierce wind AND temps!
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 1496
415. hydrus
2:19 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Next cold wave according to the GFS at 240 hours.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19550
414. LargoFl
2:19 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
413. opal92nwf
2:17 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
A seemingly innocuous 10 day forecast

It will be a nice break, but here in North Florida, you can't rest easy from getting a freeze or even a hard freeze until probably mid-late March.
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 1924
412. LargoFl
2:14 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Quoting 410. opal92nwf:
Wow, first of all, they said the high yesterday was 38, and in reality, it only got as warm as 34-35 degrees here in the FL Panhandle.

And then, last night/this morning they said it would get to 23, and well, it got to 19 instead.
yes my local met said yesterday it was really hard determining just how cold it would get,moisture,cloud cover,winds all play a part in how cold it would get..they were right by my area..didnt get a freeze but with the moisture this morning sure feels colder..solid cloud cover so the sun cant warm things up, hopefully it will break later today..hard to see right now how it will get into the 60's today..just walked the dogs in the park and my fingers are frozen lol..i know its colder in other states but here we are used to the 70's and 80's..so i guess we feel the cold more..no time to get used to the cold here..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
411. CybrTeddy
2:10 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Wouldn't be surprised if the sun shot out another powerful X-flare today from AR1944.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
410. opal92nwf
2:08 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Wow, first of all, they said the high yesterday was 38, and in reality, it only got as warm as 34-35 degrees here in the FL Panhandle.

And then, last night/this morning they said it would get to 23, and well, it got to 19 instead.
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 1924
409. Neapolitan
2:01 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Quoting 395. Xeloi:


While science says that Global Warming is for real and I believe it... this plot doesn't real show andthing meaningful. Firstly, errors... when you fit a straight line, you get an error bar on the slope. This isn't shown, so we have no idea how significant the slope is. Moreover, it is REALLY hard to calculate this error bar, because the algorithms that fit straight lines are developed for Gaussian distributions of measurement errors, while for small numbers like these, we have Poisson distributions. Furthermore, values less than zero are not possible, which also skews the errors. Also... global warming predictions an INCREASE in extreme events, not a decrease -- cold snaps should be are included in that.

Maybe if we could see a map of the shift of number of sub-zero days, year-by-year, you might be able to assemble a statistically meaningful sample.

It might be more interesting to look at how the leaves are change later each year and the average snow line shifting northward.
Folks are certainly free to disbelieve or downplay solid scientific evidence if they wish; that's the beauty of being an American. Besides, they're definitely not alone (see: "Representatives, US House of"). But as those three graphs show--along with the other 63 at the Climate Central link, plus hundreds of others elsewhere--there can be little no denying that over the past forty-plus years Americans everywhere are experiencing fewer frigid nights. Or to put it another way, the USA is warming (along with, of course, the rest of the planet). If that's not "meaningful", I'm not sure what is.

So far as error bars--and the relative value of using linear (Order 1 polynomial) trendlines to show "jaggy" non-zeroable data, and Gaussian/Poisson distributions, and smoothiness, and R2 values-, and so on-climate communicators have found over the years that including all those in simple graphics tends to muddle the message, and turn people off. Such graphics certainly exist, and they obviously tell the same story in finer, more accurate detail. But for a general public still trying to come to grips with what's really happening while being whispered constant and soothing lies by a fossil fuel industry intent on keeping things as they are, images like these are, it's been found, invaluable.

And, yes, GW theory does predict an increase in both the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. That, as any scientist--or even a casual glance at the headlines--is happening. But as the entire planet warms up, a severe cold snap such as the current US one needn't necessarily be as deep as those that happened in the past to be considered just as, if not more, severe.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13277
408. StormTrackerScott
2:00 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Temp just went from 47 to 51 in 25 minutes. Temp was 37 at 11:30pm last night and has been rising ever since.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 1 Comments: 934
407. biff4ugo
1:55 PM GMT on January 08, 2014
Thanks Dr. M. particularly for the Democracy now video that spells out "drunken jet" meandering.

Xeloi, isn't the graph type your are describing a time map of exactly the change in number of nights below zero that you are asking for?

Are you surprised there are no years with less than zero nights below a given temperature? Yes this is a 1 tail statistic.

P.S. so glad to be below the frost line today.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 1496

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.