Earth has its Warmest November in Recorded History

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:49 PM GMT on December 17, 2013

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November 2013 was the globe's warmest November since records began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and NASA. The year-to-date period of January - November has been the 4th warmest such period on record. November 2013 global land temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record. November 2013 was the 345th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. Global satellite-measured temperatures in November 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 16th or 9th warmest in the 35-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. Northern Hemisphere November snow cover was the 16th greatest in the 48-year record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of November 2013 in his November 2013 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for November 2013, the warmest November for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Most of the world's land areas experienced warmer-than-average monthly temperatures, including much of Eurasia, coastal Africa, Central America, and central South America. Much of southern Russia, north west Kazakhstan, south India, and southern Madagascar were record warm. Meanwhile, northern Australia, parts of North America, and southwest Greenland were cooler than average. No regions of the globe were record cold. According to Roshydromet, Russia observed its warmest November since national records began in 1891. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

The four billion-dollar weather disasters of November 2013
Four new billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the Earth during November 2013: Super Typhoon Haiyan ($5.8 billion), the November 17 tornado outbreak in the U.S. ($1.7 billion), flooding in Cambodia ($1 billion, the costliest disaster in Cambodian history), and the ongoing U.S. drought, which has been in progress all year, but with damages listed for the first time this year ($2.5 billion.) These four disasters bring the world-wide tally of billion-dollar weather disasters so far this year to 39, according to the November 2013 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield. This is the second highest yearly total of billion-dollar weather disasters for the globe since accurate disaster records began in 2000. However, the total cost of weather-related disasters so far in 2013 is below the average for the past ten years, according to Senior Scientist Steve Bowen of Aon Benfield. The record highest number of billion-dollar weather disasters was 40, set in 2010. For comparison, during all of 2012, there were 27 billion-dollar weather disasters. The U.S. total through November 2013 is nine.


Disaster 1. Super Typhoon Haiyan hit the Central Philippines on November 8, 2013, as one of the strongest tropical cyclones in world history, with peak surface winds estimated at 195 mph by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Haiyan killed over 6,000 people and did at least $5.8 billion in damage, making it the costliest and 1st or 2nd deadliest disaster in Philippine history. In this image, we see a Filipino boy carrying bottled water amongst the damaged houses where a ship was washed ashore in Tacloban city, Leyte province, central Philippines on Sunday, Nov. 10, 2013. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila)


Disaster 2. The most expensive November tornado outbreak hit the U.S. on November 17, causing damage estimated at $1.6 billion. This image shows a view of part of Washington, Illinois from Mackenzie Street on Sunday, Nov. 17, 2013, after an EF-4 tornado tore through the area, one of three EF-4 tornadoes from the outbreak. (AP Photo/Alex Kareotes)


Disaster 3. Heavy monsoon rains caused the Mekong River in Cambodia to overflow its banks in October and November 2013, causing $1 billion in damage. According to the International Disaster Database, EM-DAT, this would make the disaster Cambodia's most expensive and 6th deadliest natural disaster in its history. In this photo, we see Cambodian children swimming in flood waters at a village in Kandal province on October 7, 2013. Photo credit: TANG CHHIN SOTHY/AFP/Getty Images)


Disaster 4. The on-going U.S. drought has cost at least $2.5 billion so far in 2013. In this image, we see that Lake Mead water levels from 1938 - 2013 in July have shown a precipitous drop since drought conditions gripped the Western U.S. in 2000. The Lake Mead photo was taken by wunderphotographer LAjoneson June 29, 2007, when the lake had a "bathtub ring" 109' tall. Water level data from The Bureau of Reclamation is overlaid.

Neutral El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific
For the 19th month in row, November 2013 featured neutral El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific. The December 5 El Niño discussion from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center notes that "While current forecast probabilities are still greatest for ENSO-neutral by mid-summer, there is an increasing chance for the development of El Niño. None of the El Niño models predict La Niña conditions by the summer of 2014, and 7 of 16 predict El Niño conditions. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C below average or cooler for three consecutive months for a La Niña episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were 0.0°C from average as of December 16, and have been +0.1 to -0.4°C from average since April 1, 2013.

Arctic sea ice falls to 6th lowest November extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during November was 6th lowest in the 35-year satellite record, and had the largest November extent since 2010, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Jeff Masters

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1283. ARiot
1:34 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
wrong thread
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 366
1282. Goodenough
5:44 PM GMT on December 22, 2013
OK... recorded history... what is that to what really happened in the PAST! Liberals just want to hear themselves over and over and over..and TAKE CONTROL! Give us a break! blllaaaa blaaaaa blaaaaaa..... sound like Al Gore all over again! CLIMATE CHANGES FOLKS! get over it..
Member Since: March 28, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
1281. ProgressivePulse
6:09 AM GMT on December 21, 2013
Remember the tropical storm that disintegrated when it hit Texas during the drought? Same deal, different place.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
1280. ProgressivePulse
6:07 AM GMT on December 21, 2013
Quoting 1273. StormTrackerScott:


something was definitely off as we should have had a very active season but dry air, Saharian Dust, and stability really killed our season. Typically after an El-nino we have a very active season but the lack of El-nino for 4 years may have played a role this year.


Steady feed of dry air from South America directly into the MDR killed the season. It's a rather new phenomenon, obviously.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
1279. scuba123
3:29 AM GMT on December 20, 2013
Interesting post by Dr. Masters. I noticed he didn't mention the antarctic sea ice extent. While he probably doesn't need more data to make his point, showing how that is also trending negative just like the arctic would in my opinion make for a more conclusive (and complete) demonstration of recent evidence of AGW.
Member Since: September 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 6
1278. BahaHurican
11:13 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Quoting 1208. LargoFl:
actually im one of the most active everyday posters in here,and if ice age is what i prefer to talk about then so be it..period
Good grief. I can't believe we are back here attacking each other on personality instead of on arguments... People, if you disagree with someone else, please refrain from calling them names! The other day it was Pat, now it's Largo. None of the namecallers are making the blog any better by their behaviour, either. I don't agree with Largo's viewpoint. So. The. *$@!. What.
I have to call him names and get all up in arms? Come on people.

Explain your viewpoint. Then agree to disagree. We can be better than this petty display suggests.

Sheesh.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
1277. ScottLincoln
10:09 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Quoting 1276. skipl:
Good counter-point.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/19/claim-novem ber-2013-is-the-warmest-ever-but-will-the-real-nov ember-2013-temperature-please-stand-up/

Wow. No. Not even close. In fact, that post's central point is based upon an elementary mistake in understanding temperature anomalies.

They are claiming that different temperature records show a different anomaly, and thus, it may not be the warmest November on record. By itself, the claim that each temperature dataset does not always have the same years as record warm, record cold, etc is a true claim. This is due to very straight-forward reasons, including different % coverage of the globe, different elevations being measured (surface vs. lower troposphere), different interpolation techniques, to name a few.

But you have to read further. They claim that it's the different base periods that cause some datasets to show warmest and others to not show warmest.

The difference here is that NCDC is using the “20th Century Average” where the other sources are using accepted 30 year climatology periods. Choosing that period can make a big difference in the outcome.

Huh? What? No. The different base periods do not change trends. The different base periods do not change whether or not a year is record coldest or record warmest. In fact, they do not change the relative order of years vs. temperature in any way.

All the author has done is grab anomalies from different baselines and, rather than comparing them correctly to their own rankings within that dataset, compared them to other datasets with other baselines and other calculation techniques. That is a big no-no.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 2876
1276. skipl
9:42 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Good counter-point.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/19/claim-novem ber-2013-is-the-warmest-ever-but-will-the-real-nov ember-2013-temperature-please-stand-up/
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
1275. PedleyCA
9:15 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Quoting 1264. GTstormChaserCaleb:
That's strange isn't normal to get more rainfall on avg. in the winter than it is in the summer on the West Coast of the US?


We should have a lot more than we do and the fall/winter stuff isn't showing up yet.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4926
1274. NCstu
9:08 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Quoting 1273. StormTrackerScott:


something was definitely off as we should have had a very active season but dry air, Saharian Dust, and stability really killed our season. Typically after an El-nino we have a very active season but the lack of El-nino for 4 years may have played a role this year.
I think you're a little too hung up on the nino.
Member Since: August 7, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 400
1273. StormTrackerScott
8:53 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Quoting 1262. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Atmospherically speaking this years hurricane season behaved like an El-Nino. Somehow though the temperatures offshore of Ecuador said otherwise. Maybe Earth's oscillations has something to do with it? Not sure which one to blame or it could be a combination of a few?


something was definitely off as we should have had a very active season but dry air, Saharian Dust, and stability really killed our season. Typically after an El-nino we have a very active season but the lack of El-nino for 4 years may have played a role this year.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 1 Comments: 934
1272. ARiot
8:51 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Quoting 1243. jpsb:

The glacification of the Earth would be vastly worse then a little warming. In fact glacification could make life extinct on Earth. And we know for a fact that glacification happens. Fortunately the entire Earth has not frozen over yet. (Well maybe 600my ago see Snow Ball Earth). But not recently. It has been calculated that if the ice sheets get as far south as Texas were would be no stopping their advance. Game over for mankind and everything else.

We are in a interglacial warm period, interglacial are relatively short 10000-20000 year or so. The next glacification is due any time now.


The published science on that topic says you are wrong.

Here's a summary of why, in everyday language, with links to explore if you decide to read where it is atttributed.

I do agree, however, that a significant global average temperature swing of 3-6C warmer or 3-6 degrees cooler would significantly impact modern life and make our current population projections hard to sustain in what we consider "modern" comfort.

Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 366
1271. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
8:49 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1270. DonnieBwkGA
8:49 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Sunday's record warmest low for DC is 49 degrees. That's gonna be broken. If it's gonna be warm might as well have a low of 60 and break the monthly record.
Member Since: June 29, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 1681
1269. Climate175
8:47 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Snow is a coming... Jan here we go ! Lets go ! PS. Washi Models have been showing a snowy coastal system for us Dec 31- Jan 1 time period.
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 2268
1268. washingtonian115
8:46 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Quoting 1266. Climate175:
Don't worry Washi January and February will live up to its titles!
We'll see about that.It's to late for a white Christmas.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15715
1267. GTstormChaserCaleb
8:46 PM GMT on December 19, 2013


So the Arctic Oscillation affects the North Atlantic Oscillation?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 6690
1266. Climate175
8:42 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Quoting 1252. washingtonian115:
I don't like 60's and 70's in December at all :(.Especially when I see "near record warmth" in the forecast.We can't achieve a good snow in D.C but we can achieve record warmth.WTF.
Link
Don't worry Washi January and February will live up to its titles!
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 2268
1265. TropicalAnalystwx13
8:41 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Quoting 1255. StormTrackerScott:


Highest since May and 2nd highest since 2010. Normal as in trending toward El-Nino you mean. If you ask me it's the absence of El-Nino that's what has dried out the atmosphere across the Atlantic Basin leading to very few hurricanes. I am very interested in seeing how we fare next year during El-Nino as eventhough I am going with 11 named storms the ones that form could be very intense. Bottomline next years hurricane season looks interesting.

No I mean normal as in typical. Large jumps [in both dorections] when dealing with the PDO are common. It has nothing to do with his so-called trend towards El Niño. The PDO influences the ENSO, not the other way around.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30259
1264. GTstormChaserCaleb
8:41 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Quoting 1261. PedleyCA:


56.0 and not getting any rain. Go figure....
That's strange isn't normal to get more rainfall on avg. in the winter than it is in the summer on the West Coast of the US?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 6690
1263. ricderr
8:40 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Highest since May and 2nd highest since 2010. Normal as in trending toward El-Nino you mean.


the problem with your statement is that there have been other months where the values changed even more significantly month to month and then reversed the following month....so...your statement may or may not be correct but using that chart as validation does not work
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 668 Comments: 20163
1262. GTstormChaserCaleb
8:39 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Quoting 1260. StormTrackerScott:
I am also interested in hearing about research being done on how if at all the absence of El-Nino has caused this down turn in hurricanes as the atmosphere has been really dry for about 2 years across our basin.
Atmospherically speaking this years hurricane season behaved like an El-Nino. Somehow though the temperatures offshore of Ecuador said otherwise. Maybe Earth's oscillations has something to do with it? Not sure which one to blame or it could be a combination of a few?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 6690
1261. PedleyCA
8:38 PM GMT on December 19, 2013


56.0 and not getting any rain. Go figure....
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4926
1260. StormTrackerScott
8:34 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
I am also interested in hearing about research being done on how if at all the absence of El-Nino has caused this down turn in hurricanes as the atmosphere has been really dry for about 2 years across our basin.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 1 Comments: 934
1259. Dakster
8:33 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Quoting 1222. opal92nwf:
I actually think FL is gonna get a cane in 2014. And if not, then almost for sure in 2015.

It starting to get really weird going this long without one.

It's weird to think that when the last one hit in 2005, people that are in high school and college now were just kids..

It's really incredible how long this lull has been.


Only Cane we have gotten lately is the type that grows in fields. (Sugarcane)

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9728
1258. GTstormChaserCaleb
8:33 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Quoting 1257. washingtonian115:
Haha yeah.Might as well get out my sun screen and short sleeves.It's that type of disgusting weather.I like this weather in April..Not december.
Washington, DC on Sunday.

Sunday
Chance of a Thunderstorm
72F | 50F
Chance of T-storms
50% chance of precipitation

Looks like FL. avg. for Dec.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 6690
1257. washingtonian115
8:30 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Quoting 1256. DonnieBwkGA:
Sweatin' on the solstice?
Haha yeah.Might as well get out my sun screen and short sleeves.It's that type of disgusting weather.I like this weather in April..Not december.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15715
1256. DonnieBwkGA
8:26 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Sweatin' on the solstice?
Member Since: June 29, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 1681
1255. StormTrackerScott
8:26 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Quoting 1253. TropicalAnalystwx13:

And completely normal.


Highest since May and 2nd highest since 2010. Normal as in trending toward El-Nino you mean. If you ask me it's the absence of El-Nino that's what has dried out the atmosphere across the Atlantic Basin leading to very few hurricanes. I am very interested in seeing how we fare next year during El-Nino as eventhough I am going with 11 named storms the ones that form could be very intense. Bottomline next years hurricane season looks interesting.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 1 Comments: 934
1254. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:24 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BRUCE, CATEGORY THREE (03U)
2:26 AM WST December 20 2013
============================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Bruce, Category Three (961 hPa) located at 13.0S 90.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
55 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 13.5S 88.2E - 95 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS 13.9S 86.3E - 100 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS 15.8S 81.6E - 105 knots (CAT 4)
72 HRS 19.3S 78.2E - 95 knots (CAT 4)

Additional Information
=========================
The system continues to intensify with a broad eye structure.

A steady west southwest motion continues under the influence of a mid level ridge to the south. There is strong model agreement for this motion to be maintained for the next few days.

Shear is expected to remain low for the next few days and oceanic heat content remains suitably elevated. Intensity is forecast to proceed at a standard rate in the medium term. Forecast maximum intensity is capped at present to 105 knots 10 minute mean.

***This will be the final tropical cyclone advisory from Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth**

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
CYCLONE TROPICAL AMARA (02-20132014)
22:30 PM RET December 19 2013
============================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Amara (960 hPa) located at 18.0S 66.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 9 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
40 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
========================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 135 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 18.6S 65.1E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS 19.3S 64.3E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS 21.4S 65.3E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS 22.0S 66.8E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
==========================
During the past six hours, the system has slightly intensified, closing then consolidation of the eye wall in the western semi-circle on microwave data 1351z and 1550z, with cooling of the central dense overcast on infrared imagery. CIMMS data shows always two upper level outflow channels. Persistence of the channel in the north for the next 12 hours will temporally limiting in a first time the weakening due to sea surface temperature.

Up to Friday, Amara may keep on moving generally south westward to west southwestward under the steering influence of the mid- tropospheric subtropical high pressures existing southeast. From Saturday, the subtropical ridge is expected to weaken and a high to mid-level trough is expected to move in the south of the system. The system is forecast to recurve southward to southeastward , and begin to be weaken, undergoing the strengthening wind shear ahead of the upper level trough

From Sunday, the weakening system is forecast to slow down under a weak steering flow in the mid to low troposphere. At the end of the forecast period, the weakened system should go back westward with the steering flow of the subtropical anticyclone rebuilding south of the Mascarenes islands.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43682
1253. TropicalAnalystwx13
8:23 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Quoting 1176. StormTrackerScott:


How's that PDO holding up? J/K -87 to -11 in a month is pretty impressive.

And completely normal.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30259
1252. washingtonian115
8:22 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
I don't like 60's and 70's in December at all :(.Especially when I see "near record warmth" in the forecast.We can't achieve a good snow in D.C but we can achieve record warmth.WTF.
Link
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15715
1251. NCstu
8:20 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Quoting 1243. jpsb:

The glacification of the Earth would be vastly worse then a little warming. In fact glacification could make life extinct on Earth. And we know for a fact that glacification happens. Fortunately the entire Earth has not frozen over yet. (Well maybe 600my ago see Snow Ball Earth). But not recently. It has been calculated that is the ice sheets get as far south as Texas were would be not stopping their advance. Game over for mankind and everything else.

We are in a interglacial warm period, interglacial are relatively short 10000-20000 year or so. The next glacification is due any time now.
how do you know that we are due for glaciation?
Member Since: August 7, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 400
1250. SouthTampa
8:08 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Quoting 1236. PalmBeachWeather:
Tampa...We all have our own opinions...I have mine and Phil Robertson has his.. That's what makes the world go round...Glad we don't all think the same...That would be boring.
I agree, PBW. I do, however, believe that opinions formed on reason, logic, and evidence to be much more valuable than those formed in absence of such. I always feel the burden of evidence is on the claimant; if Largo thinks an ice age is coming, let's hear why and discuss the merits.
Member Since: June 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 111
1249. DonnieBwkGA
8:05 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
A sunny mild afternoon. Frosty this morning. From 32 to 68 here today!
Member Since: June 29, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 1681
1248. SLU
8:02 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Quoting 1246. JRRP:


Some nice weather in about one week.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4734
1247. jpsb
7:55 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Quoting 1242. FLwolverine:
Largo, stop worrying so much.

From Nature reports climate change: Carbon is Forever. Link



BTW the last time earth was 5C warmer than today, there were no humans here - the only mammals were little shrew size critters. The concern is not about the earth: it will be here. The question is whether humans will be - with or without civilization.


I wonder if that has anything to do with the large to huge predators roaming around the planet at that time?



Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1010
1246. JRRP
7:54 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5083
1245. nrtiwlnvragn
7:51 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
The 35 Naughtiest Dogs On The Planet
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10466
1244. VR46L
7:46 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Quoting 1241. PalmBeachWeather:
Braggin' about the storms we have been in again... I bet nobody here was in the Salem witch hunts in 1692 and 1693... I was there...Still have the scars to prove it..


LMAO !!! Good One

Remind me not to get on your bad side .


Anyway

Back on topic



Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6613
1243. jpsb
7:42 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Quoting 1210. NCstu:
I'm not quite following your ice age argument. Are you saying that it's coming and it will be really bad or are you saying that eventually it will come (like hundreds or thousands of years from now) and it will be worse than global warming?

The glacification of the Earth would be vastly worse then a little warming. In fact glacification could make life extinct on Earth. And we know for a fact that glacification happens. Fortunately the entire Earth has not frozen over yet. (Well maybe 600my ago see Snow Ball Earth). But not recently. It has been calculated that if the ice sheets get as far south as Texas were would be no stopping their advance. Game over for mankind and everything else.

We are in a interglacial warm period, interglacial are relatively short 10000-20000 year or so. The next glacification is due any time now.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1010
1242. FLwolverine
7:37 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Quoting 1185. LargoFl:
nothing I do not believe global warming is a danger that we need to raise taxes and costs to prevent..im sorry if people take offense, the earth has warmed many times in its history and i dont see any excerption here,its been 5 degree's celcius warmer before and the earth is still here..now an end to this current interglacial period would turn all our lives upside down, maybe even ending human history..a BIG difference in dangers..wh
Largo, stop worrying so much.

From Nature reports climate change: Carbon is Forever. Link

University of Chicago oceanographer David Archer, who led the study with Caldeira and others, is credited with doing more than anyone to show how long CO2 from fossil fuels will last in the atmosphere. As he puts it in his new book The Long Thaw, "The lifetime of fossil fuel CO2 in the atmosphere is a few centuries, plus 25 percent that lasts essentially forever. The next time you fill your tank, reflect upon this"3.

"The climatic impacts of releasing fossil fuel CO2 to the atmosphere will last longer than Stonehenge," Archer writes. "Longer than time capsules, longer than nuclear waste, far longer than the age of human civilization so far."

The effects of carbon dioxide on the atmosphere drop off so slowly that unless we kick our "fossil fuel addiction", to use George W. Bush's phrase, we could force Earth out of its regular pattern of freezes and thaws that has lasted for more than a million years. "If the entire coal reserves were used," Archer writes, "then glaciation could be delayed for half a million years."
-------------------

BTW the last time earth was 5C warmer than today, there were no humans here - the only mammals were little shrew size critters. The concern is not about the earth: it will be here. The question is whether humans will be - with or without civilization.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 1900
1241. PalmBeachWeather
7:37 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Braggin' about the storms we have been in again... I bet nobody here was in the Salem witch hunts in 1692 and 1693... I was there...Still have the scars to prove it..
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5750
1240. dabirds
7:35 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
We'll be close to your yearly total this weekend Ped, hope ya at least get a little. Hope ours comes in long and slow, any bursts will def cause flooding. Major melt going at moment, though looks like temp rise has slowed drastically as heavier cloud cover moves in.

Very close to forecast high of 52 w/ 48 dew pt, pressure continues to drop, 29.79", S winds still blowing 8-22.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 681
1239. nrtiwlnvragn
7:33 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
1238. ricderr
7:31 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Which hurricanes? I've been thru Erin, Charley, Frances, & Jeanne


i was in irene in '99....got to see the eye of both jeanne and frances....and then wilma
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 668 Comments: 20163
1237. PensacolaDoug
7:30 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Quoting 1212. FunnelVortex:


I've been on the blog with Largo for longer than you have, and I can tell you that he is calling for a "Day After Tomorrow" scenario.




Ahem...bs.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
1236. PalmBeachWeather
7:30 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Quoting 1235. SouthTampa:
I too enjoy Largo's input on weather and current alerts, especially in our locality. However, if he, or anyone else for that matter, is going to make an argument for or against a matter of science (such as climate change), he should be prepared to back that up with evidence and have a hearty discussion. There is nothing wrong with that. To say someone is unfriendly because they disagree with you, even strongly, is dishonest.

A lot of us are passionate about our planet and think there is substantial evidence to support belief in climate change. We will defend that belief with evidence, and rightfully reject and ridicule pseudo-science and opinions offered on a whim.
Tampa...We all have our own opinions...I have mine and Phil Robertson has his.. That's what makes the world go round...Glad we don't all think the same...That would be boring.
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5750
1235. SouthTampa
7:28 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
I too enjoy Largo's input on weather and current alerts, especially in our locality. However, if he, or anyone else for that matter, is going to make an argument for or against a matter of science (such as climate change), he should be prepared to back that up with evidence and have a hearty discussion. There is nothing wrong with that. To say someone is unfriendly because they disagree with you, even strongly, is dishonest.

A lot of us are passionate about our planet and think there is substantial evidence to support belief in climate change. We will defend that belief with evidence, and rightfully reject and ridicule pseudo-science and opinions offered on a whim.
Member Since: June 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 111
1234. jpsb
7:28 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Quoting 845. Birthmark:

I'll put to you the same challenge I put to Chucktown. Calculate what the Earth's temperature should be, based on solar output. Does that temperature differ from the observed temperature? If so, why? Thanks in advance.

Lol, a fools challenge. There is a lot more then "solar output" that determines the climate on Earth. Also "solar output" varies. Not to much in the visible but a fair amount in IR. Temperature is really an almost useless metric in this discussion since it varies wildly from one location to another. Calculations of a Global Average Temperature should be looked at with a great deal of sketisism as to it's accuracy. Just what the heck is an average global temperature?

Much more meaningful might be a value for the heat content in the oceans, land surface and atmosphere. However any one claiming they are able to determine that metric had better the able to show they have millions of instrument located just about everywhere.

When it comes to climate we are still just guessing, it is to chaotic a system to predict with certainty given our knowledge of the system and our current ability to determine the state of the system at any given time.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1010
1233. PalmBeachWeather
7:16 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
Quoting 1211. LargoFl:
I used to think this was one friendly blog, many viewpoints on differing subjects and not too much fighting and name calling which makes for a good active blog..but im seeing something here..unless your with the majority here..your posts are hmmm.."trolling"??..well you can Keep your GW..i really dont Care about it at all..poof
Hang in there Largo, the majority is with you friend
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5750

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.