Taming Hurricanes With Wind Turbines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:35 PM GMT on December 13, 2013

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How can one significantly reduce the winds of nature’s most destructive storms, and at the same time provide up to half of the world’s electric power? The answer, according to Dr. Mark Jacobson of Stanford’s Civil and Environmental Engineering department, is to install massive arrays of tens of thousands of offshore wind turbines, which can extract wind energy from hurricanes and dramatically reduce their winds and storm surges. I’m in San Francisco this week for the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), the world’s largest climate science conference, where Dr. Jacobson presented a talk titled, “Taming hurricanes with arrays of offshore wind turbines that simultaneously reduce global warming and air pollution and provide normal electric power.” Using a 3-D global atmospheric computer model with finer-scale meshes zoomed in along the U.S. coast, he ran simulations of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy, and studied how an array of 70,000 wind turbines that generate 300 Gigawatts of power placed along the coast might impact these storms. The simulations showed that as the outer winds of these hurricanes moved over the wind turbines, they extracted enough energy from the storms to reduce the winds by 50%, and increase the central pressure by 16 mb. A decrease in the storm surge of 6 - 72% occurred as a result.


Figure 1. The wind speeds at 15 meters above the surface as simulated at 10 am EDT August 29, 2005 during Hurricane Katrina. Left: Katrina’s winds without an off-shore wind turbine array of 70,000 units present (7.58-MW Enercon E-126 turbines spaced every 0.45 km2 within 100 km of the coast.) Right: Hurricane Katrina after passing through the simulated array. The wind turbines extracted a huge amount of energy from the hurricane, significantly reducing its winds. Image credit: Mark Jacobson and Cristina Archer, “Taming Hurricanes With Arrays of Offshore Wind Turbines”, presentation made to the Willet Kempton Wind Energy Symposium University of Delaware February 27, 2013.

Vulnerability of wind turbines to hurricane winds
The wind turbines used in the study shut down when winds hit 76 mph, and are destroyed at wind speeds of 112 mph. The eyewall winds of Katrina did destroy a number of turbines in the simulation. Even so, the cost of the lost turbines in such a case would likely be made up for by the reduced damage of the hurricane’s winds and storm surge at the coast due to the presence of the wind turbine array. Note that a 2012 paper by Rose et al. that got a lot of media attention, “Quantifying the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines“, significantly overestimated the risks of wind turbines being destroyed by a hurricane, as pointed out by NOAA hurricane scientist Dr. Mark Powell, and as conceded by the authors of the study. It is reasonable to build large offshore arrays of wind turbines in hurricane-prone regions, provided some extra engineering effort is put into the design of these turbines. A talk presented at AGU yesterday by Jay Apt and Stephen Rose of Carnegie Mellon University, “Quantifying the hurricane risk to offshore wind power,” recommended that offshore wind turbines install backup power systems in order to orient the blades correctly to reduce extreme wind loads during hurricane conditions.

More research needs to be done on how large wind turbine arrays might affect the weather. These turbines could potentially cause significant changes to precipitation patterns along the coast. As I blogged about in 2012, in the Southeast U.S., tropical cyclones provide 15 - 20% of the annual precipitation, and 20% - 50% of all droughts between 1960 - 2009 were busted by a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane. If wind turbine arrays reduce the intensity of tropical storms making landfall, it makes sense that the amount of rain they dump will also decline. Droughts are often more damaging than hurricanes, and it may be necessary to shut down a large array of coastal wind turbines in a situation where a tropical storm or hurricane with drought-busting rains is headed for a drought region. Who should make this decision? How strong of a storm should we let hit? There are many tough questions to answer.


Figure 2. Wind turbine damage on Miyakojima Island, Japan after Typhoon Maemi struck on September 11, 2003. Image credit: Takahara, et al., 2004, “Damages of wind turbine on Miyakojima Island by Typhoon Maemi in 2003.”

Wind to power the world?
Dr. Jacobson is a big booster of wind power. A 2012 paper that he published along with co-author Christina Archer in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) found that there is enough wind to exceed the total world energy demand by several times, even after accounting for reductions in wind speed caused by the wind turbines. Their model showed that 4 million turbines, each operating at a height of 100 meters and producing 5 megawatts, could supply 7.5 terawatts of power—more than half the world's all-purpose power demand—without significant negative effects on the climate. "To get there, however, we have a long way to go. Today, we have installed a little over 1 percent of the wind power needed," Jacobson said, in a Stanford press release. Half of the 4 million turbines would be situated over water, and the other 2 million would require a little more than 0.5% percent of Earth's land surface—about half the area of the state of Alaska. However, virtually none of this area would be used solely for wind, but could serve dual purposes such as open space, farmland, ranchland or wildlife preserve.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I’ll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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1030. LargoFl
3:47 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50411
1029. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:46 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1028. ILwthrfan
3:34 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
I got blasted Friday night and Saturday morning. Had about 8" at 7am, then the temperature was too warm, 37F, while it still was snowing heavily till about 10AM. It was an extremely wet and heavy snow, still about 6" compacted on the ground. :) Great stuff.

Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1699
1027. JRRP
3:26 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6503
1026. NCstu
3:26 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Quoting 1014. HadesGodWyvern:
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 02-20132014
16:30 PM RET December 16 2013
============================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (996 hPa) located at 15.7S 73.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
locally 120 NM radius from the center in the northwest quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
========================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 220 NM in the northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 16.0S 71.7E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 15.9S 70.5E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS 15.7S 68.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS 16.1S 65.4E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
==========================
This general pattern of the system has a few evovled for the last 6 hours. The cyclonic curvature has accentuated, but convection is not yet consolidated. 0726z oceansat-2 winds data shows only the western part of the system. Consequently, it is difficult to calibrate winds extensions. However, at this time, strongest winds seem to be present in the northwestern quadrant. Current intensity is maintained at 30 knots with locally gale force winds 35 knots within the northwestern quadrant.

The system is still moving west southwestward, under the steering influence of the lower levels subtropical high pressures. A weakness of the ridge should leave the system within a weak steering environment, that will cause a slow down of the forward motion until Wednesday. From Thursday, the system should accelerate again on a west southwestward track. At the end of the forecast period, an upper level trough may do to decelerate the system again and even do it curve clearly southward.

Over this expected track, the easterly to northeasterly vertical wind-shear should gradually decrease and allow the system to deepen progressively. The sea surface temperatures are favorable on the forecast track.

The current forecast track is close to the two last available ECMWF deterministic outputs (16/0000 UTC and 16/06z). The latest output from the ECMWF ensemble forecast (16/0000 UTC) still shows some significant spread in the tracks at medium range of the forecast that induces a rather low confidence in both track and intensity forecast.

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
TROPICAL LOW 03U
8:49 PM WST December 16 2013
============================================

At 7:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 8.5S 98.1E or 435 km north northeast of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west southwest at 7 knots.

The low is moving west southwest and may develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday as it passes to the northwest of Cocos Islands.

GALES are not expected on the Cocos Islands during Tuesday, however GALES with gusts to 100 km/h are possible during Wednesday and may persist into Thursday morning.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to increase later Tuesday as the system moves closer. Depending on the movement of the low, the rain and thunderstorms should continue through Wednesday then ease on Thursday.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 8.5S 97.5E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 8.8S 96.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 10.9S 94.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 12.3S 90.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
=========================
The low has been located with a combination of animated satellite imagery, microwave imagery and scatterometer winds. However, due to the broad circulation there is some uncertainty as to its exact position.

The system has recently moved west southwest, however this movement is expected to slow over the next 12-24 hours before resuming a more southwesterly track later on Tuesday. While the current position is uncertain, there is a reasonable amount of confidence in the forecast motion as there is strong agreement between the models.

Shear at 06Z was moderate [15 to 25 knots] with lighter shear to the south of the system. With the system moving into lighter shear, development is likely. Model guidance indicates the system strengthens and 90% or greater of the EC ensemble members have a greater than 34 knot system during Thursday and Friday.

Current intensity is based on scatterometer winds. Unable to assign T1.0 as yet. The forecast intensity is based on conditions being moderately favorable with shear decreasing as the system moves south. sea surface temperatures are high and there is no dry air expected to effect the system.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for the Cocos Islands


I used to do actuarial work for a company in Mauritius. So not only does the place exist, they have an insurance industry too!
Member Since: August 7, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 432
1025. hurricanes2018
3:23 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
winter storm for the northeast again
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 149 Comments: 124628
1024. eddye
3:14 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
sfl catgory 5 dude the gfs shows us geting into the 30 dec 28
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1394
1023. Torito
3:07 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Tomorrow's TCFP.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 4483
1022. Torito
3:05 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Quoting 1014. HadesGodWyvern:
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 02-20132014
16:30 PM RET December 16 2013
============================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (996 hPa) located at 15.7S 73.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.


Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 4483
1021. ricderr
2:58 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
2014 hurricane season outlook

there is going to be storms
some not bad some real bad
all of them will spin
but maybe not long
to become strong






the first ever correct early season prediction :-)
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 685 Comments: 23562
1020. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:50 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Quoting 1019. ricderr:
We will use this 2013 experience to more carefully monitor the smaller-scale changes of the THC in the future.



as much as i dislike early season forecasts.....the only saving grace is the explanation of the science behind the prediction...both in the forecast itself and then the reasoning post season



2014 hurricane season outlook

there is going to be storms
some not bad some real bad
all of them will spin
but maybe not long
to become strong
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59083
1019. ricderr
2:41 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
We will use this 2013 experience to more carefully monitor the smaller-scale changes of the THC in the future.



as much as i dislike early season forecasts.....the only saving grace is the explanation of the science behind the prediction...both in the forecast itself and then the reasoning post season
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 685 Comments: 23562
1018. weathermanwannabe
2:40 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Rather than talk about next year's hurricane season (in December), most of the US is in the 20-30's this morning with the exception of extreme South California, Texas, and the Florida Peninsula.  As it should be this time of the year although I am surprised that my local forecast today for North Florida has us with a high of 76 on Friday; might see a few record highs in these parts if that comes to pass.

  • Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 76.
  • Friday Night A 20 percent chance of
    rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57.
  • Saturday A 20 percent chance of
    showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 76.

Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10769
1017. JRRP
2:36 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Quoting SLU:
LOL!!!!!






and the EURO
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6503
1016. weathermanwannabe
2:34 PM GMT on December 16, 2013

Quoting 1015. Tropicsweatherpr:


Interesting read here of CSU December qualitative discussion of 2014 North Atlantic season where they talk about new factors to take into consideration.
Thanks; here is an example from this discussion as to what I alluded to below in terms of going outside of the normal factors:

We attribute a sizable portion of the reduction in the 2013 hurricane activity to the unusual springtime (April through June) weakening of the THC/AMO and the associated large increase in strength of the Atlantic gyre. We failed to realize the importance of this first half of the year reduction in the strength of the THC and increase in strength of the subtropical gyre. Part of our failure was due to the rapid reversal in strength of the THC(and gyre) in July that has continued to the present. We will use this 2013 experience to more carefully monitor the smaller-scale changes of the THC in the future.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10769
1015. Tropicsweatherpr
2:29 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Quoting 1013. weathermanwannabe:
Based upon the past few Atlantic Hurricane season years; between the stable air, proliferation of tropical storms, and lack of major hurricanes, it seems to be getting harder to make accurate pre-season predictions. Past predictions, and and specifically the historically more accurate early-late season updates (May going into August updates) from the major outlets (including NHC and Colorado State) have been based primarily on the applicable Enso condition and other big ticket items such as sst's, overall sheer conditions, and SAL issues. Even so, we have seen so called "favorable" conditions collapse in recent years due to other factors outside of the big-ticket items; faster than usual trade winds in the 2012 season and unusually stable air in the 2013 season.

My point is that the last two-three seasons have been a departure (prediction wise) from the majority of previous analog years thus resulting in the worst pre-season predictions we have seen after a pretty good track record in previous years with the exception of the very anomalous 2005 record season.

We might have to start thinking out of the box from the traditional big-ticket items in upcoming years and bringing other less obvious factors into the prediction equation. Finally, given the very low success rate of predictions this far out, I would take all of them (between now and the August 2014 updates) with a big grain of salt.

Interesting read here of CSU December qualitative discussion of 2014 North Atlantic season where they talk about new factors to take into consideration.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15657
1014. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:29 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 02-20132014
16:30 PM RET December 16 2013
============================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (996 hPa) located at 15.7S 73.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
locally 120 NM radius from the center in the northwest quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
========================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 220 NM in the northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 16.0S 71.7E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 15.9S 70.5E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS 15.7S 68.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS 16.1S 65.4E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
==========================
This general pattern of the system has a few evovled for the last 6 hours. The cyclonic curvature has accentuated, but convection is not yet consolidated. 0726z oceansat-2 winds data shows only the western part of the system. Consequently, it is difficult to calibrate winds extensions. However, at this time, strongest winds seem to be present in the northwestern quadrant. Current intensity is maintained at 30 knots with locally gale force winds 35 knots within the northwestern quadrant.

The system is still moving west southwestward, under the steering influence of the lower levels subtropical high pressures. A weakness of the ridge should leave the system within a weak steering environment, that will cause a slow down of the forward motion until Wednesday. From Thursday, the system should accelerate again on a west southwestward track. At the end of the forecast period, an upper level trough may do to decelerate the system again and even do it curve clearly southward.

Over this expected track, the easterly to northeasterly vertical wind-shear should gradually decrease and allow the system to deepen progressively. The sea surface temperatures are favorable on the forecast track.

The current forecast track is close to the two last available ECMWF deterministic outputs (16/0000 UTC and 16/06z). The latest output from the ECMWF ensemble forecast (16/0000 UTC) still shows some significant spread in the tracks at medium range of the forecast that induces a rather low confidence in both track and intensity forecast.

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
TROPICAL LOW 03U
8:49 PM WST December 16 2013
============================================

At 7:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 8.5S 98.1E or 435 km north northeast of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west southwest at 7 knots.

The low is moving west southwest and may develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday as it passes to the northwest of Cocos Islands.

GALES are not expected on the Cocos Islands during Tuesday, however GALES with gusts to 100 km/h are possible during Wednesday and may persist into Thursday morning.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to increase later Tuesday as the system moves closer. Depending on the movement of the low, the rain and thunderstorms should continue through Wednesday then ease on Thursday.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 8.5S 97.5E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 8.8S 96.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 10.9S 94.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 12.3S 90.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
=========================
The low has been located with a combination of animated satellite imagery, microwave imagery and scatterometer winds. However, due to the broad circulation there is some uncertainty as to its exact position.

The system has recently moved west southwest, however this movement is expected to slow over the next 12-24 hours before resuming a more southwesterly track later on Tuesday. While the current position is uncertain, there is a reasonable amount of confidence in the forecast motion as there is strong agreement between the models.

Shear at 06Z was moderate [15 to 25 knots] with lighter shear to the south of the system. With the system moving into lighter shear, development is likely. Model guidance indicates the system strengthens and 90% or greater of the EC ensemble members have a greater than 34 knot system during Thursday and Friday.

Current intensity is based on scatterometer winds. Unable to assign T1.0 as yet. The forecast intensity is based on conditions being moderately favorable with shear decreasing as the system moves south. sea surface temperatures are high and there is no dry air expected to effect the system.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for the Cocos Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 50382
1013. weathermanwannabe
2:24 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Based upon the past few Atlantic Hurricane season years; between the stable air, proliferation of tropical storms, and lack of major hurricanes, it seems to be getting harder to make accurate pre-season predictions.  Past predictions, and and specifically the historically more accurate early-late season updates (May going into August updates) from the major outlets (including NHC and Colorado State) have been based primarily on the applicable Enso condition and other big ticket items such as sst's, overall sheer conditions, and SAL issues.  Even so, we have seen so called "favorable" conditions collapse in recent years due to other factors outside of the big-ticket items; faster than usual trade winds in the 2012 season and unusually stable air in the 2013 season.

My point is that the last two-three seasons have been a departure (prediction wise) from the majority of previous analog years thus resulting in the worst pre-season predictions we have seen after a pretty good track record in previous years with the exception of the very anomalous 2005 record season. 

We might have to start thinking out of the box from the traditional big-ticket items in upcoming years and bringing other less obvious factors into the prediction equation.  Finally, given the very low success rate of predictions this far out, I would take all of them (between now and the August 2014 updates) with a big grain of salt.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10769
1012. FunnelVortex
2:15 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Quoting 1010. SLU:


Tropical Storm "Nestor"


I see. Slow blog this morning
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2905
1011. Sfloridacat5
2:04 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Quoting 1008. FunnelVortex:


lol what?


I think he's laughing at the small system in the Caribbean/Southern Atlantic.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11214
1010. SLU
2:04 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Quoting 1008. FunnelVortex:


lol what?


Tropical Storm "Nestor"
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5394
1009. Sfloridacat5
2:03 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Quoting 1007. SLU:
LOL!!!!!







GFS shows a frontal boundry sweeping through the S.E. on Dec. 24th. That should sweep everything up and away with it.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11214
1008. FunnelVortex
1:59 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Quoting 1007. SLU:
LOL!!!!!







lol what?
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2905
1007. SLU
1:57 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
LOL!!!!!





Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5394
1006. Sfloridacat5
1:56 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Quoting 1004. StormTrackerScott:


LOL. Dr. Scott is me however the Dr. Gray is thinking low numbers as well so we will see.


After last year's dismal season, coming in with low numbers seems like a save bet. Dr. Gray even admitted "we still have a lot to learn."
He got that right.
My kids at school did better than Dr. Gray at predicting named storms last season.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11214
1005. PalmBeachWeather
1:55 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
What a beautiful morning... This is the first time in months that I can finally open the windows and the sliders.... Yippee
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6006
1004. StormTrackerScott
1:35 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Quoting 998. Sfloridacat5:



Probably be a record breaking season if the professionals are predicting a slow season.

I put no trust what so ever in these seasonal hurricane forecasts.


LOL. Dr. Scott is me however the Dr. Gray is thinking low numbers as well so we will see.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 15 Comments: 8351
1003. Sfloridacat5
1:34 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Beautiful morning on Fort Myers Beach. A little cool 63 degrees, but not bad.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11214
1002. StormTrackerScott
1:33 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
With my 2014 Hurricane Season forecast released "Bow Down". Link
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 15 Comments: 8351
1001. GeorgiaStormz
1:33 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Quoting 968. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I usually split up the USA like this:



...though some states, such as North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, could be considered part of two groups.


KY should go w the ohio valley/great lakes
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9770
1000. Sfloridacat5
1:30 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Quoting 991. PensacolaDoug:

I like this one.


So California is the xxx?
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11214
999. Sfloridacat5
1:29 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Quoting 992. LargoFl:
Good Morning..7-day Tampa Bay area...


I don't see any Artic air making it down into Florida any time soon.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11214
998. Sfloridacat5
1:28 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Quoting 995. StormTrackerScott:
Dr. Scott has released his 2014 Hurricane Predictions. Combination of a potential strong El-Nino building in causing lots of shear across the Atlantic and Caribbean Basins should really put a cap on 2014's season. SE US may have 2 threats next year though one in May or June then again in September.

11 named storms
4 hurricanes
1 major



Probably be a record breaking season if the professionals are predicting a slow season.

I put no trust what so ever in these seasonal hurricane forecasts.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11214
997. GeorgiaStormz
1:27 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW THE PATTERN WILL
UNFOLD ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS. WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S IN DECEMBER...IT USUALLY SPELLS BIG TROUBLE ESPECIALLY
IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG WIND SHEAR AND DYNAMICS. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE IMPORTANT FEATURES
OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL LEAVE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS OUT OF
THE HWO FOR NOW. THE DETAILS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE QUITE A BIT
BETWEEN NOW AND THE WEEKEND BUT A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT MAY BE IN
THE CARDS FOR SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.

BMX
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996. GeorgiaStormz
1:21 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
powerful winds even at 925mb



Neg tilt shortwave in larger trough



and *GASP*

isntability

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9770
995. StormTrackerScott
1:20 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Dr. Scott has released his 2014 Hurricane Predictions. Combination of a potential strong El-Nino building in causing lots of shear across the Atlantic and Caribbean Basins should really put a cap on 2014's season. SE US may have 2 threats next year though one in May or June then again in September.

11 named storms
4 hurricanes
1 major
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 15 Comments: 8351
994. GeorgiaStormz
1:19 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
GFS finally coming back to it's senses from the craziness of earlier

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9770
993. GeorgiaStormz
1:17 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
The window for strong storms will come Sunday or Sunday night. The 06Z GFS shows a sub-1000 mb surface low near Little Rock at midday Sunday, with Alabama in the warm sector as we rise into the mid 70s. A strong low level jet (over 60 knots at 850 mb) and very significant low level bulk shear (1000-925 mb bulk shear of over 40 knots) could suggest a significant severe weather threat.

However, the ECMWF gives a completely different look with the primary surface low Sunday near Buffalo, NY with only marginal severe weather parameters here.


Wait and see time.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9770
992. LargoFl
1:06 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Good Morning..7-day Tampa Bay area...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50411
991. PensacolaDoug
1:06 PM GMT on December 16, 2013

I like this one.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 798
990. StormTrackerScott
1:05 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
My worry is that we are heading for a very strong El-Nino come this time next year maybe rivaling 1982/1983 or 1997/1998. So with this I am expecting 11 storms next year 4 hurricanes and 1 major.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 15 Comments: 8351
989. StormTrackerScott
1:02 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
It is definitely looking like El-Nino is looming as notice how all the warm anomalies are slowly gaining across the E-Pac enso regions while the W-Pac enso areas are losing ground.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 15 Comments: 8351
988. Luisport
1:01 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 8 h
Heavy duty explosive cyclone comes close to British Isles Wed & Thursday -- 950 mb then drops to 943 mb. Ireland potential major wind event

Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2041
987. AussieStorm
12:58 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


What a cool link! Thanx Aussie!

would of been helpful during hurricane season.
if you click the Earth, a menu appears, very cool tools there.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
986. GeoffreyWPB
12:53 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Nice day in store for West Palm Beach...



Later in the week...

THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. LOWS EACH NIGHT SHOULD BE RUNNING IN THE
60S...EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 70S EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THESE LOWS
WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE HIGHS WILL ALSO BE RUNNING IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WHICH
IS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE HEAT INDEX COULD EVEN GET UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
THIS WEEKEND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11841
985. PensacolaDoug
12:52 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Quoting 984. AussieStorm:
Good evening all. Here is a few links of a very cool full globe wind map.

1000hPa

850hPa

700hPa

500hPa

250hPa

70hPa

10hPa (206kts above the great lakes area)

you can click on the map to see the wind speed


What a cool link! Thanx Aussie!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 798
984. AussieStorm
12:48 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Good evening all. Here is a few links of a very cool full globe wind map.

1000hPa

850hPa

700hPa

500hPa

250hPa

70hPa

10hPa (206kts above the great lakes area)

you can click on the map to see the wind speed
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
983. NEFLWATCHING
12:35 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
Quoting 920. BaltimoreBrian:
Grothar's paintings when he was young. Click to expand.


Those aren't his paintings - those are his tattoos!
Member Since: September 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
982. aislinnpaps
11:20 AM GMT on December 16, 2013
Good morning, afternoon and evening everyone. It's 30 degrees with 30 degree wind chill. It wasn't supposed to get this cold or I would have been dripping the faucets, but they are all working fine. It was busy weekend, getting house ready for company who all arrive on Friday evening. It'll be a crazy week getting the last minute stuff done.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: creamed chipped beef over biscuits, Cajun Breakfast Casserole, Apple-Pecan Baked Oatmeal, Green Chili Breakfast Burrito Casserole, Nutty Buckwheat Buttermilk Pancakes, fluffy biscuits with sausage gravy, Cinnamon Pecan Rolls, Pumpkin Pie Coffee Cake with Pecan Crumble, Spinach & Dubliner Cheese Egg Cups, cinnamon oatmeal with bruleed Bananas, Red-Pepper omelet, Sausage Strata, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Peppermint White Hot Chocolate, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3170
981. beell
11:12 AM GMT on December 16, 2013
Quoting 968. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I usually split up the USA like this:



...though some states, such as North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, could be considered part of two groups.


I like the splits the WPC uses. SPC uses the same divisions as far as I can tell. Major weather-influencing topography is taken into consideration (The Rockies, The Appalachians, The Great Lakes, etc.)



Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 152 Comments: 18053
980. TroutMadness
10:56 AM GMT on December 16, 2013
Hmmph, it's cold where I was yesterday(hope the pipes don't freeze), up north in Michigan.
Grayling Army Air Base -15, even Detroit is 8
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 134

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