The Unusually Quiet Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2013 Ends

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:53 PM GMT on November 29, 2013

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The end of the unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 is at hand. The final tally of thirteen named storms was above the average of eleven for a season, but the two hurricanes (Ingrid and Humberto) and zero major hurricanes were well below the average from 1950 - 2012 of six and three, respectively. The 2013 season ranked as the sixth-least-active Atlantic hurricane season since 1950, in terms of the collective strength and duration of named storms and hurricanes (ACE index), which was just 33% of the 1981 - 2012 average. The 2013 hurricane season was the first time since 1994 no major hurricanes formed, and was only the third below-normal season since the high-activity period for Atlantic hurricanes began in 1995. NOAA and the U.S. Air Force Reserve flew 45 hurricane hunter aircraft reconnaissance missions over the Atlantic basin this season, totaling 435 hours--the fewest number of flight hours since at least 1966, said NOAA in a press release summarizing the 2013 hurricane season.



Worst storm of the season: Ingrid
Mexico took a severe beating in 2013, with eight landfalling storms: one hurricane (Ingrid) and two tropical storms (Barry and Fernand) from the Atlantic side, and two hurricanes (Manuel and Barbara), and three tropical storms from the Pacific side. The deadliest and most expensive Atlantic storm of 2013 was Hurricane Ingrid, which weakened to a tropical storm with 65 mph winds before hitting Mexico about 200 miles south of the Texas border on September 16, 2013. Ingrid's heavy rains triggered flooding that killed 23 and did $1.5 billion in damage, making the storm the 7th costliest tropical cyclone in Mexican history. Barry and Fernand, which both hit the Mexican coast in the Gulf of Mexico between Tampico and Veracruz, dumped torrential rains and triggered floods that killed five and fourteen people, respectively. The first storm of the season, Tropical Storm Andrea, was the only named storm to make landfall in the United States this year. Andrea brought tornadoes, heavy rain, and minor flooding to portions of Florida, eastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina, causing one fatality and damage less than $25 million. No other deaths were recorded from Atlantic named storms in 2013. Tropical Storm Chantal did minor damage on Dominica and Martinique in the Lesser Antilles, and Tropical Storm Gabrielle did minor damage on Bermuda.


Figure 1. The strongest Atlantic hurricane of 2013, Category 1 Hurricane Ingrid, lays siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Ingrid killed 23 and did $1.5 billion in damage to Mexico. On the Pacific side, we see Tropical Storm Manuel, which killed 169 people and did $4.2 billion in damage to Mexico. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

A preseason forecast bust
It was a bad year to be in the seasonal hurricane forecast business. All of the pre-season forecasts called for at least 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE index at least 30% higher than average. With the actual numbers being 2 hurricanes, 0 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of just 33% of average , these forecasts were a major bust. The only pre-season forecast that one could deem successful was issued by a team at Penn State, led by Dr. Michael Mann, who only attempted to predict the number of named storms (they said 12 - 20, with a best estimate of 16.) The preseason forecasts largely failed because many of the factors that usually lead to active seasons that we can look at months beforehand all pointed towards an active season:

1) No El Niño was present. When El Niño conditions are not present in the Eastern Pacific, wind shear tends to be low over the tropical Atlantic, favoring hurricane formation.

2) Ocean temperatures were above average.

3) Sea level pressures were lower than average.

4) Wind shear was near average.

5) The African Monsoon was active, with many strong tropical waves emerging from the coast of Africa. These disturbances form the nucleus for about 85% of all major hurricanes.

However, these factors tell only roughly 50% of the story. The other 50% is not predictable more than a week or two in advance: the large-scale atmospheric circulation. This summer and fall, an unusually strong trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic brought large amounts of dry, sinking air to the tropical Atlantic. Large amounts of dry air also invaded from the Sahara, and from Northeast Brazil, which had suffered the most expensive drought in Brazil's history ($8 billion) earlier in the year. The combined onslaught of dry air from these multiple sources was enough to overwhelm the otherwise favorable conditions for development, leading to one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record. According to Phil Klotzbach of the Colorado State seasonal forecast team, the relative humidity at the 700 mb level (roughly 10,000 feet) in the Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic (7.5- 22.5°N, 20-75°W) in August was the lowest observed in the past 35 years, and was the 8th lowest during September. The strength of the sinking motion of the air in this region during August and September was the second greatest of the past 35 years. It's tough to sustain a thunderstorm updraft when there is so much dry, sinking air at middle levels of the atmosphere.



Special Characteristics of the 2013 Hurricane Season
The 2013 hurricane season had the following special characteristics, as summarized by Phil Klotzbach of the Colorado State seasonal forecast team:

• Thirteen named storms occurred during 2013. This is the most named storms to occur in a year with two or fewer hurricanes in the historical record. The 1931 hurricane season had thirteen named storms but only three hurricanes.

• 35.75 named storm days (NSD) occurred during 2013. This is the fewest NSD since 2009 (30 NSD).

• Two hurricanes formed in 2013. This is the fewest hurricanes since 1982, when two hurricanes also formed.

• No major hurricanes formed in 2013. The last year with no major hurricane formations was 1994.

• ACE in 2013 was only 30 units. This is the lowest ACE for an Atlantic hurricane season since 1983 (17 ACE units.)

• No major hurricanes made U.S. landfall in 2013. The last major hurricane to make U.S. landfall was Wilma (2005), so the U.S. has now gone eight years without a major hurricane landfall. Since 1878 when relatively reliable landfall data became available, the U.S. has never had an eight-year period without a major hurricane landfall.

• The maximum intensity reached by any hurricane this year was 85 mph (Humberto and Ingrid). This is the weakest maximum intensity achieved by the most intense hurricane of a season since 1968 (Gladys, 85 mph.)

• Humberto reached hurricane strength early on September 11. It became the second latest forming first hurricane of the year, developing into a hurricane just hours before the previous record latest forming first hurricane of the year (Gustav, 2002.)

• Two tropical cyclones (TCs) formed in the Main Development Region (south of 23.5°N, east of 75°W) prior to 1 August. The last year with two TCs forming in this region prior to 1 August was all-time busiest hurricane season on record, 2005. The median ACE of the 10 years with two TCs in the MDR prior to 1 August was 174 ACE units. The 2013 season clearly defied many of the typical pre-season climate signals.


Video 1. Wunderground member CycloneOz put together this animation of all the named storms of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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1275. skipl
5:49 PM GMT on December 03, 2013
Quoting 1257. WxGeekVA:
I'm currently working on a project for my college seminar class about how media shapes public opinion on climate change. Does anyone have any good articles or sources related to this topic, from either side of the spectrum. Basically, my idea is to show that people have their opinion on climate change shaped one way or another by news outlets such as MSNBC, Fox News, HuffPost, etc.


NOTE: I'm not trying to deny the fact that humans are causing climate change, I just want to show a major reason why some people still deny it.

Thanks!


I find the website: http://wattsupwiththat.com/ very valuable.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
1274. BillinSac
9:59 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Quoting 1257. WxGeekVA:
I'm currently working on a project for my college seminar class about how media shapes public opinion on climate change. Does anyone have any good articles or sources related to this topic, from either side of the spectrum.

Thanks!


A good source is the Bad Astronomy blog by Phil Plait. He takes the entire denialist culture to task, and devotes quite a bit of print to why it happens. Another is Andy Revkins' DotEarth blog. Same deal, but cites many industry/political sources along the way.
Member Since: December 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
1273. georgevandenberghe
8:05 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Quoting 1252. Pallis:
Adopt a gopher tortoise. Just look for a new development going up and grab one before it gets run over. They will probably outlive you.

Never had wolfhounds. Both my parents and grandparents had Great Danes and they lived to 9 years in the 40s (grandparents') and 50s-early 60s (parents). Veterinary care and nutrition has improved since then and 7 years seems awfully short even for a big dog. My shephard/golden mix lived to 14.8 and her mother (the golden retriever) lived to 13.
Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 17 Comments: 1585
1272. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:47 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1271. Torito
3:34 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1270. Torito
3:32 PM GMT on December 02, 2013

The Flood Warning continues for
the Santee river near Jamestown.

* At 7 PM Sunday the stage was 10.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.

* Forecast... the river will rise to near 11.2 feet by Monday morning.
The river will fall below flood stage early Friday morning.

* At 12.0 feet... several dirt logging roads become impassable.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1269. Birthmark
3:28 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Quoting 1252. Pallis:
Adopt a gopher tortoise. Just look for a new development going up and grab one before it gets run over. They will probably outlive you.

I don't know. I'm pretty competitive.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
1268. Torito
3:26 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Quoting 1267. pcola57:


WU has a very good page for beginning your quest..


WU's Climate Change page




Warming in store for me. :P

Link
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1267. pcola57
3:21 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Quoting 1257. WxGeekVA:
I'm currently working on a project for my college seminar class about how media shapes public opinion on climate change. Does anyone have any good articles or sources related to this topic, from either side of the spectrum. Basically, my idea is to show that people have their opinion on climate change shaped one way or another by news outlets such as MSNBC, Fox News, HuffPost, etc.


NOTE: I'm not trying to deny the fact that humans are causing climate change, I just want to show a major reason why some people still deny it.

Thanks!


WU has a very good page for beginning your quest..


WU's Climate Change page
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6760
1266. LargoFl
3:14 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Irish Wolfhound..............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36654
1265. LargoFl
3:13 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Quoting 1220. hydrus:
They are the most loving loyal animals I have ever seen. They are very large though. We have had many taller than 3 foot at the shoulder, and well over 200 lbs.. I do not have pictures of our own to post now, but here is an oldie.
yeah a beautiful LARGE animal alright..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36654
1264. Torito
3:08 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Quoting 1260. Neapolitan:
There are a number of reasons, I think: ideological, psychological, financial, religious, inertial, etc. Here are links to a few pretty good articles on the subject:

-Why the World Won't Listen

-Why do people still deny climate change

-The Science of Truthiness: Why Conservatives Deny Global Warming

-The 5 stages of climate denial are on display ahead of the IPCC report

-The Battle Over Global Warming Is All in Your Head

-Why Smart People Deny Climate Change

-Who's Bankrolling the Climate-Change Deniers?

-THE KOCH BROTHERS: FUNDING $67,042,064 TO GROUPS DENYING CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE SINCE 1997.



Nea.... Use .org or .edu websites so the information is guaranteed to not be biased. ;)
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1263. Torito
3:05 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Quoting 1257. WxGeekVA:
I'm currently working on a project for my college seminar class about how media shapes public opinion on climate change. Does anyone have any good articles or sources related to this topic, from either side of the spectrum. Basically, my idea is to show that people have their opinion on climate change shaped one way or another by news outlets such as MSNBC, Fox News, HuffPost, etc.


NOTE: I'm not trying to deny the fact that humans are causing climate change, I just want to show a major reason why some people still deny it.

Thanks!



What Drives Public Opinion About Climate Change?

Some really long study on the subject... might be useful.

Jump to page 36 on this document for the charts and other info that might be of use to you as well...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1262. ricderr
3:03 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
I'd focus how they mostly use Headlines and two liners to get their point across






that's why roods blog and even here end up in little more than an argument....i hold that the average person does not have a clue as to a major understanding of climate change

Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 670 Comments: 21318
1261. trunkmonkey
3:03 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Quoting 1260. Neapolitan:
There are a number of reasons, I think: ideological, psychological, financial, religious, inertial, etc. Here are links to a few pretty good articles on the subject:

-Why the World Won't Listen

-Why do people still deny climate change

-The Science of Truthiness: Why Conservatives Deny Global Warming

-The 5 stages of climate denial are on display ahead of the IPCC report

-The Battle Over Global Warming Is All in Your Head

-Why Smart People Deny Climate Change

-Who's Bankrolling the Climate-Change Deniers?

-THE KOCH BROTHERS: FUNDING $67,042,064 TO GROUPS DENYING CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE SINCE 1997.


Looks like the Saudis are paying top dollar to keep American oil out of the pumps!!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 579
1260. Neapolitan
3:00 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Quoting 1257. WxGeekVA:
I'm currently working on a project for my college seminar class about how media shapes public opinion on climate change. Does anyone have any good articles or sources related to this topic, from either side of the spectrum. Basically, my idea is to show that people have their opinion on climate change shaped one way or another by news outlets such as MSNBC, Fox News, HuffPost, etc.


NOTE: I'm not trying to deny the fact that humans are causing climate change, I just want to show a major reason why some people still deny it.

Thanks!
There are a number of reasons, I think: ideological, psychological, financial, religious, inertial, etc. Here are links to a few pretty good articles on the subject:

-Why the World Won't Listen

-Why do people still deny climate change

-The Science of Truthiness: Why Conservatives Deny Global Warming

-The 5 stages of climate denial are on display ahead of the IPCC report

-The Battle Over Global Warming Is All in Your Head

-Why Smart People Deny Climate Change

-Who's Bankrolling the Climate-Change Deniers?

-THE KOCH BROTHERS: FUNDING $67,042,064 TO GROUPS DENYING CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE SINCE 1997.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13442
1259. VAbeachhurricanes
2:55 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Quoting 1257. WxGeekVA:
I'm currently working on a project for my college seminar class about how media shapes public opinion on climate change. Does anyone have any good articles or sources related to this topic, from either side of the spectrum. Basically, my idea is to show that people have their opinion on climate change shaped one way or another by news outlets such as MSNBC, Fox News, HuffPost, etc.


NOTE: I'm not trying to deny the fact that humans are causing climate change, I just want to show a major reason why some people still deny it.

Thanks!


I'd focus how they mostly use Headlines and two liners to get their point across. The average reader doesn't intently read most articles. So if an article says "Coldest month in 30 years" or "Warmest month in 30 years" People will probably pick up those points without getting most of the context involved in the article.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6002
1258. VAbeachhurricanes
2:52 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Quoting 1213. VR46L:


Yep , We kind of shrug at gusts of 70 mph its a way of life here . but we do not comprehend what a 70 mph sustained tropical storm means ... as they very different animals . I guess I find myself sniggering at drama over 35 mph gusts ,I know its wrong to but sometimes the hype even on this side of the water . when its something that happens once a month from autumn though spring can be annoying ! so I laugh


Could you imagine those 35 mph winds, but in -10F degree weather like the Midwest is gonna feel. That's a cold I hope I never have to feel. Bone shuttering cold.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6002
1257. WxGeekVA
2:50 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
I'm currently working on a project for my college seminar class about how media shapes public opinion on climate change. Does anyone have any good articles or sources related to this topic, from either side of the spectrum. Basically, my idea is to show that people have their opinion on climate change shaped one way or another by news outlets such as MSNBC, Fox News, HuffPost, etc.


NOTE: I'm not trying to deny the fact that humans are causing climate change, I just want to show a major reason why some people still deny it.

Thanks!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
1256. Torito
2:48 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Quoting 1254. hydrus:



I'll take the snow system 150 hours out.. Let's hope that it doesn't get dropped soon...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1255. fireflymom
2:48 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Should be in the upper 70's here today but looking a freezing by Saturday, life in Houston I guess.  Glad to see you are a wolfie fan Hydrus, we had 2 when the kids were small. I had a small business and took both dogs and kids to work with me every day. Our wonderful Wolfhounds not only put up with children learning how to walk by holding on to their fur and napping on them but always stayed between them and danger. Knew how to imply threat with out having to do more than stand and stare. Would also grab an arm and lead the kids to a safer area if they felt danger. Marvelous companions. Katie lived to be 11 years old and Cierra only made it to 8 years due to a stomach torsion.
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
1254. hydrus
2:45 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20330
1253. Torito
2:41 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
94w.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1252. Pallis
2:38 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Quoting 1225. Birthmark:

I love big dogs, but their lifespans are usually pretty short...and I get attached to my critters.
Adopt a gopher tortoise. Just look for a new development going up and grab one before it gets run over. They will probably outlive you.
Member Since: August 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 522
1251. ricderr
2:36 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Where's Keep?......3 day convective outlook shows a general risk for the south day three.......models from last week might just pan out
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 670 Comments: 21318
1250. PensacolaDoug
2:33 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Quoting 1247. islander101010:
it would seem brr creek would be right up your alley then pen. doug. will we see the sun again in e cen fl?


It's gotta push pretty far south and east to get me but cold air is heavy. Time will tell how much of it gets here.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 549
1249. Torito
2:32 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Just looking through satellite websites, i happened to find a really old archive.... I believe this is the last satellite image THE OLD GOMS picked up in 1998 before it was shut down forever...

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1248. Torito
2:26 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1247. islander101010
2:25 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
it would seem brr creek would be right up your alley then pen. doug. will we see the sun again in e cen fl?
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4266
1246. Neapolitan
2:24 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Some interesting wording from NWS Riverton WY in regards to this week's coming Arctic blast:

NOW FOR POSSIBLY THE BIGGEST EFFECT...THE COMING OF THE BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER A MILD DAY TODAY...THE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE A SLAP IN THE FACE...MORE LIKE AN UPPERCUT
TO THE JAW FROM MIKE TYSON.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. AND...WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING
COULD BE AS MUCH AS 60 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY...ALL THIS IN AROUND 36 HOURS. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING 700
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES OF MINUS 20 WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AND AS A RESULT LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY NOT RISE TO ZERO IN A LOT OF AREAS. EVEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEENS BELOW ZERO
IN MANY LOCATIONS. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW COLD THINGS
WILL GET...SINCE A LOT DEPENDS ON SNOW COVER. 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW
COULD BRING BRUTAL COLD WITH A STRONG ALBEDO AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW FALLS...NOT QUITE AS MUCH BIT
STILL PRETTY DARN COLD. IF THE BREEZE KEEPS UP...WE COULD BE LOOKING
AT POSSIBLE WIND CHILL WARNINGS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH
THIS UNCERTAINTY...WE MADE FEW CHANGES TO CONTINUITY.
REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE ONE OF THE COLDEST STRETCHES OF WEATHER
IN QUITE A WHILE.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13442
1245. Torito
2:24 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Gfs 63 hours.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1244. eyewallblues
2:18 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Quoting 1240. Torito:
Looks like a developing West Southwester.
Member Since: September 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 169
1243. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:14 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
14:30 PM IST December 2 2013
============================

The well marked low pressure area over central parts of south Bay of Bengal persists.

Prediction of Meteorological Condition
--------------------------------------
The well marked low pressure area over central parts of south Bay of Bengal would concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44462
1242. Torito
2:08 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Tomorrow's TCFP.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1241. washingtonian115
2:01 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
The ECWMF is still showing snow for D.C.I don't believe that..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16327
1240. Torito
2:01 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1239. Torito
2:00 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 2 2013


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W
TO 06N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N22W TO SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 23W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR
19N100W IS SUPPORTING RELATIVELY DRY N-NW FLOW ALOFT. CLOUDINESS
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. WEAK HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N93W. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUE...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE
HIGH CENTER WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND TUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF THEN SPREAD EASTWARD WED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET AND TRANQUIL
UNDER MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE W-SW AND DIFFLUENT OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST. A
FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH WED
WITH TRADE WINDS REMAINING GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

...HISPANIOLA...
RELATIVELY LIGHT TRADE WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ARE
MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER OVER HISPANIOLA. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUE. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF THE MONA
PASSAGE WHICH ARE DRIFTING WESTWARD AND DISSIPATING...ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE E OF A SHORT WAVE FROM 27N65W TO 19N70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG
65W-67W EXTENDING TO NEAR 20N SUPPORTING SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 30N65W TO 18N68W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 23N BETWEEN 50W-65W. WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
FROM 1014 MB LOW NEAR 38N78W MOVING OFF SOUTH CAROLINA. COASTAL
RADARS SHOW FEW SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN EXTENSIVE UPPER CLOUDINESS.
A DEEP LAYER LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N25W SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MERGE N OF THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 34N25W LATER TODAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHALLOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING N OF 28N BETWEEN 16W-26W.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1238. pcola57
1:45 PM GMT on December 02, 2013

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6760
1237. PensacolaDoug
1:19 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Quoting 1235. hydrus:
Our whole family loves music. Every generation played something. My Dad played with the Young Rascals for a bit in the 60,s.


Very Cool!


Best known band I ever played in was "Ba'nana Republic." We had a good rep and following along the gulf coast and southeast all thru the 90's.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 549
1236. hydrus
1:17 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Quoting 1233. PensacolaDoug:


Rgr that! My neighborhood got "IVANIZED" severely.
My heart goes out to anyone that has been devastated by a natural disaster.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20330
1235. hydrus
1:16 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Quoting 1232. PensacolaDoug:


I played trumpet for two years in band. I wasn't very good. I use all of those sounds in my recordings tho.. I play em on keys!
Our whole family loves music. Every generation played something. My Dad played with the Young Rascals for a bit in the 60,s.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20330
1234. Sfloridacat5
1:16 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Here it comes.
7 day forecast for Corpus Christ Tx.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5903
1233. PensacolaDoug
1:15 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Quoting 1231. hydrus:
The area where I lived then was forever altered. I grew up there and its tough seeing the place you love destroyed.


Rgr that! My neighborhood got "IVANIZED" severely.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 549
1232. PensacolaDoug
1:14 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Quoting 1230. hydrus:
I play guitar, french horn and trumpet..Strange combo.?..:)


I played trumpet for two years in band. I wasn't very good. I use all of those sounds in my recordings tho.. I play em on keys!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 549
1231. hydrus
1:13 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Quoting 1224. VR46L:


I can't even begin to realise what that was like !
The area where I lived then was forever altered. I grew up there and its tough seeing the place you love destroyed.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20330
1230. hydrus
1:09 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Quoting 1214. PensacolaDoug:



Keyboards.
I got songs on ITUNES and a few other places.
I play guitar, french horn and trumpet..Strange combo.?..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20330
1229. hydrus
1:08 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Quoting 1222. PensacolaDoug:


That pic is enough to make CUJO run the other way!
They are VERY powerful. I have had them snap heavy leads. Then they just look at you as if nothing happened.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20330
1228. hydrus
1:06 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Quoting 1225. Birthmark:

I love big dogs, but their lifespans are usually pretty short...and I get attached to my critters.
I know. That is one of the hardest things about having them. The life span is approx 7 years.I love my hounds and when I loose one it is devastating for me.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20330
1227. StormTrackerScott
12:54 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Very warm week ahead for C FL. These temps are 10 degree above average. This coming after a very warm November where temps ranged in the TOP 10!

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2260
1226. VR46L
12:43 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6803
1225. Birthmark
12:38 PM GMT on December 02, 2013
Quoting 1220. hydrus:
They are the most loving loyal animals I have ever seen. They are very large though. We have had many taller than 3 foot at the shoulder, and well over 200 lbs.. I do not have pictures of our own to post now, but here is an oldie.

I love big dogs, but their lifespans are usually pretty short...and I get attached to my critters.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.