The tropics are finally quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:32 PM GMT on December 09, 2005

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There is no tropical storm activity in the Atlantic today for the first time since early November. The remains of Hurricane Epsilon are just a swirl of low clouds at the base of a cold front sweeping towards Europe, and are not a threat to regenerate into a tropical storm. However, all of the computer models are forecasting that a strong extratropical low pressure system will develop on Sunday near the region Epsilon died, and this new low has the potential to develop into Tropical Storm Zeta by late next week as it moves slowly westward over the mid-Atlantic. This storm will not be a threat to any land areas, and is expected to recurve harmlessly to the northeast later in the week.

Blog topics for the remainder of the year
I am working on a number of blog topics related to hurricane season that I hope to post over the next two weeks. There include:

1) Why did Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands get missed this year?

2) What was the global hurricane season like? Did the other oceans experience as many intense hurricanes as the Atlantic, supporting a global warming connection?

3) Why was Katrina's storm surge so huge?

4) Was this year's incredible hurricane season partially attributable to global warming?

My next update will be on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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303. code1
2:44 PM GMT on December 12, 2005
And Katrina just keeps on giving/taking....The below is a post from Hills blog that I made and wanted everyone here to see as well. Gonna donate to Target if possible in WU's name. I know we are all storm tired and maxed out on giving to victims, but $15-$20 for a child to have pajamas is not too much to ask....

Posted By: code1 at 9:06 AM CST on December 12, 2005.
Wanted to post this:

Just saw a little boy, around 10-12 years old on GMA. Missed the entire clip, but he only asked for a pair of pajamas for Christmas!! Heart broken here. On a good note, the clip said Target had a registry, you can find the site through GMA to donate for these unfortunate children. Most of them Katrina victims. Imagine a child that age just asking for pajamas.....
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
302. ForecasterColby
12:27 PM GMT on December 12, 2005
Atmos:

[img src="imageurl"] with instead of [ and ]
301. atmosweather
5:02 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
now i know i need sleep
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
300. atmosweather
5:00 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
sorry guys i havent posted pics in ages, should be like this

“img src="http://image.weather.com/looper/archive/atl_oce_sat_720x486/4L.jpg?1134363167140”>
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
299. davefoster
4:59 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
Oops, sorry, I see that forecasterColby has already put up the map.
298. atmosweather
4:58 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
thx dave

krwz, this will be hybrid system even if it becomes tropical storm zeta, and hybrid systems usually have lower pressures than fully tropical systems, so the winds wont be that high if they name it
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
297. davefoster
4:56 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
If anyone's interested in seeing the cut-off low south of the Azores then here's a good link.

Cut-off Low (Zeta)

I don't think they'll move the floater until, at the earliest, the NRL come out with an Invest for the low.

This low has a reaonable chance of becoming Zeta in the next 2 or 3 days, so you should take the opportunity of seeing a system that is about to go tropical, another one like Epsilon.

I'm running a bit of a competition on my site to predict when we get Hurricane Zeta, where it will appear and where it will make landfall, if at all. Just for fun, no prizes unfortunately.

There's also a wind-up discussion about Epsilon with a chance to pass comment.

Dave Foster's Hurricane Pages

Cheers
Dave
296. atmosweather
4:55 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
and here it is from the weather channel

“img src=" http://image.weather.com/looper/archive/atl_oce_sat_720x486/4L.jpg?1134363167140”>
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
295. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
4:54 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
990mb now that meanthis Z storm or what would be come the Z storm would have 60 to 70 mph winds with a 990mb low or the mb may have got lower then it was be for like 987mb or 985mb what dos any one think?
294. snowski
4:48 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
Whoops..I was trying to paste this loop
293. snowski
4:47 AM GMT on December 12, 2005



Here's an updated loop of our low.
292. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
4:35 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
atmosweather yes i saw it 2 time and may see it 2 or 3 more time
291. atmosweather
4:32 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
twice? wow, must be good then. i'll see if i can see it lol
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
290. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
4:30 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
ok atmosweather you will find that the movie is very good i saw it 2 time now and may see it two more time that is how the movie is
289. snowski
4:26 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
Link

Here's another cool picture.
288. atmosweather
4:15 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
if i can i will krwz
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
287. snowski
4:10 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
I don't suppose there's any way to shift the GOES floater so it's over the low at 32N 29W?
286. seflagamma
4:09 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
Good Evening, still watching Survivor but I like to check in here from time to time to see what is happening.
Do you really think we have another storm out there?
gamma
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40882
285. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
4:08 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
atmosweather go see the movie you may like the movie more then you do the book
284. ForecasterColby
4:00 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
I don't use it, Snowski. Just saw that on another weather forum and it seemed a good image.
283. ForecasterColby
3:59 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
In fact, hit the Wilma page here at wunderground under the 2005 map, if you look at the landfall radar loop you can see it.
282. snowski
3:59 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
I'm glad somebody else likes Intellicast.com...
281. ForecasterColby
3:57 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
Tornado, that image is not doctored in any way. It was also visible in the NEXRAD here at wunderwx and the NHC's too.
280. atmosweather
3:54 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
LOL torn

i actually have that channel and was watching it when i saw the "2". actually looked pretty real because it developed not just appeared
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
279. ForecasterColby
3:53 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
Yes. Notice deeper convection firing independantly from the front.
278. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
3:53 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
atmosweather go see the movie you may like ot more then the book
277. tornadoty
3:52 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
Someone on Accuweather mentioned that the 2 in Wilma might have been the local news channel 2's creative form of advertising, or that it might be a sign from the Soviet-era weather-controlling Japanese mafia machine.
276. TampaSteve
3:47 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
The one in the area of 34N 27W, right???
275. TampaSteve
3:45 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
Colby: Yeah...it's fortunate for us that Mexico "took one for the team". If Wilma had shot the gap between Mexico and Cuba and stayed over that super-warm loop current instead of making landfall in the Yucatan, we could have been looking at a Cat 4 or even Cat 5 barreling into the Florida Gulf Coast. That's not a pleasant thought.
274. ForecasterColby
3:39 AM GMT on December 12, 2005


Here's an updated loop of our low.
273. ForecasterColby
3:38 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
Crap, I guess table tags don't work around here :(
272. ForecasterColby
3:37 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
I numberWind I numberPressure I numberSS scale equiv.030-44999-1010Tropical Depression145-59987-998Tropical Storm260-74975-986Tropical Storm375-89963-974Category 1490-104951-962Category 1-25105-119939-950Category 26120-134927-938Category 37135-149915-926Category 48150-164903-914Category 4-59165-179891-902Category 510>179<891Category 5
271. TampaSteve
3:36 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
Hey Colby...cool site...hadn't really checked it out before...thanks!

270. ForecasterColby
3:35 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
Yeah. Maybe it was referring to itself being the second major hurricane to hit the area in two years?
269. ForecasterColby
3:32 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
This low is now an I1 on my scale. For those of you on my site, I posted my scale in an easily readable format in the conventions thread.

Link
268. TampaSteve
3:30 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
Colby: That "2" image in Wilma is pretty neat...but wasn't Wilma actually a Cat 3 (125 mph) at that point???
267. atmosweather
3:08 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
i liked the books a lot, but havent seen the movie.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
266. ForecasterColby
3:02 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
You didn't like the Narnia books, Torn? I loved em.
265. ForecasterColby
3:01 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
Wasn't Epsilon proof that optimism is useless?



Theres the "2" radar image from Wilma's landfall.
264. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
3:00 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
be back in a few
263. AySz88
2:59 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
atmos: I doubt they want to be excited by the chances, perhaps instead trying to wish possible-Zeta away with optimism.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
262. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
2:56 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
what about you atmosweather?
261. atmosweather
2:49 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
hey torn

yeah they mention it but they dont seem very excited by its chances really
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
260. tornadoty
2:47 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
I didn't like the books, I don't want to see the movie.

Read this:

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING CONTROLS THE W ATLC CENTERED ALONG 60W-65W
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO JUST E OF BERMUDA. 1020 MB HIGH IS NEAR
26N57W RIDGING SW INTO THE SE BAHAMAS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE PLENTIFUL W
OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS N OF 25N WITH A FEW TSTM AREAS. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 27.5N70W ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROUGH FROM THE NW BAHAMAS TO 30N67W. THICK CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM 31N74W TO S
FLORIDA AS A TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE E USA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES THE ATLC FROM 30W-60W S OF 28W. IN THE NE ATLC...
POWERFUL 990 MB LOW IS NEAR 32N29W WITH WINDS APPROACHING STORM
FORCE. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED IN LARGE UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM
THE LOW SW TO 19N41W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR
31N20W TO 20N21W DISSIPATING JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDES. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 22.5N-30N
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 22W. THIS LOW IS BEING WATCHED FOR
SIGNS OF SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST IT COULD BECOME MORE OF A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH TIME. FOR NOW
THERE ISN'T MUCH CENTRAL CONVECTION AND IT IS TOO ENTANGLED WITH
FRONTS TO EVEN CONSIDER SUBTROPICAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. FOR
WHAT IT IS WORTH... A CONSENSUS OF COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST THIS
SYSTEM TO BE THE MOST SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL ON THE 13TH.
HIGH
LATITUDE BLOCKING N OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW THE LOW TO BE CUTOFF
FOR A FEW DAYS BUT IT DOESN'T APPEAR TO HAVE AS MUCH TIME AS EPSILON
DID TO FORM. DRY AIR ALOFT HAS PENETRATED MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC
EXCEPT SE OF A LINE FROM 17N16W TO 10N34W WHERE A FEW HIGH CLOUD AND
ITCZ SHOWERS REMAIN. OBVIOUSLY TRADES ARE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN
AVERAGE S OF THE LARGE LOW AND REMAIN CLOSE TO AVERAGE OR A LITTLE
ABOVE W OF 50W INTO THE CARIBBEAN.

They mention the possible Zeta.
259. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
2:37 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
hey tornadoty did you see narnia yet
258. tornadoty
2:29 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
Hey KRWZ.
257. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
2:25 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
lol any one there
256. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
2:18 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
hurricanechaser you got e mail
255. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
2:04 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
palmettobug53 i do not no

any one see hurricanechaser today?
254. ForecasterColby
1:38 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
Palmetto, take a look at www.imdb.com
253. Trouper415
1:07 AM GMT on December 12, 2005
Here's a dynamite quote.

"Jim Cantore pushes forecasting to the next level. Much as Michael Jordan changed basketball, Jim Cantore has forever altered the field of weather forecasting."
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.