Major Winter Storm Delaying Travel in Eastern U.S.; Lehar Weakens to a Tropical Storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 27, 2013

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The busiest travel day of the year in the U.S. is at hand this Wednesday, and Winter Storm Boreas continues to slow travel over much of the Eastern U.S. with a nasty mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, heavy rain, and high winds. Dangerous snowy and icy travel will continue to cause trouble in many of the high elevation areas from the Smoky Mountains to Maine Wednesday. The greatest snows of 6+ inches will fall in the Adirondack Mountains of New York, and strong northwest winds will bring lake effects of 2 - 4" to Rochester, NY and much of the south shore of Lake Ontario.


Figure 1. Winter Storm Boreas heads up the Eastern U.S. on Tuesday, November 26, 2013. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

A very wet and windy storm for the U.S.
Boreas has tapped into an "Atmospheric River" of very moist air from the Gulf of Mexico, and the amount of water vapor available to make rain (the "Precipitable Water") was near record highs (for November) along the East Coast Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The high elevation areas of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia received more than 3" of rain in a 24-hour period ending at 8 am EST Wednesday, and both New York City and Philadelphia got more than 2". The heavy rains, combined with cloud ceilings as low as 500 feet and wind gusts as high as 40 mph, have slowed air traffic landing at New York's La Guardia airport and in Philadelphia. The FAA web site warned of 1 hour delays for flights arriving in Philadelphia, and 2 hours at La Guardia, on Wednesday morning. However, none of the other 38 major airports in the U.S. was reporting delays in excess of over 15 minutes Wednesday morning, and Winter Storm Boreas has been more of a nuisance than a travel disaster.

Accompanying Boreas' heavy rains along the coast have been high winds; a Wind Advisory for sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph, with gusts up to 60 mph, is in place along much of the coast from New Jersey to Maine. While the rains will be gone on Thursday in time for the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade in New York City, winds will still be strong, making conditions potentially too dangerous for the balloons used in the parade. These balloons are not allowed to fly if the city experiences sustained winds of 23 mph with gusts of 34 mph. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 15 - 25 mph gusting to 40 mph on Thursday.


Figure 2. Observed precipitation for the 24-hour period ending Wednesday, November 27, 2013. Image credit: NOAA.

Lehar weakens to a tropical storm; threat to India lessens
Cyclone Lehar has met up with dry air and strong upper level winds that have torn into the storm, reducing it to a tropical storm with 65 mph winds at it heads west-northwest at 17 mph towards India's Bay of Bengal coast. Satellite images show that Lehar is much less organized than before, with a much diminished area of heavy thunderstorms. Cooler waters near shore and continued dry air and wind shear as the storm nears landfall will keep Lehar below hurricane strength until landfall. Landfall is expected to occur between 06 - 12 UTC Thursday, November 28, in the Andhra Pradesh state of India.

Have a great Thanksgiving, everyone, and I'll be back Friday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Storm Boreas.. (suzi46)
hitting us hard up here in the Mt Washington Valley of NH and Western mountains of Maine..heavy freezing rain over snow, sleet..flood warnings are in place and downed/broken trees/wires beginning to occur..
Storm Boreas..
()
November Rose (noneinc)
I was surprised to see these crystals on the Rose. I guess I had a little hoar frost. Need to get out earlier.
November Rose

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652. DaveFive
1:20 AM GMT on December 02, 2013
Dear Dr. Masters, I have enjoyed reading your forecast and report. I liked the photo of the rose with the first frost as well as the cabin on Mt. Washington New Hampshire. According to that photo of the cabin in the snow atop Mt. Washington, there doesn't seem to be much snow on Mt. Washington at this time. That mountain should have more than five feet of snow by now. Hopefully, larger storms will arrive there in the next month or so. Nothing much has happened out west in San Jose, California. We just had one day of measurable precipitation in September as well as one day of precipitation in November. I hope that we will be getting some more rain and mountain snow here soon.
Sincerely, Dave Five
Member Since: August 16, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 311
651. ScottLincoln
5:46 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
Quoting 636. MPI88:


I find this a rather odd conclusion that more or less encourages inadequate sheltering.

Obviously tornado's do not have to be lethal when you are above ground. However the probability of getting injured greatly increases with inadequate sheltering.

Risk = probability x consequence.

Given the amount of uncertainty (tornado track, intensity, quality of your home) I would not take that bet. An 1% probability on a major consequence (death) is a no go.

I am absolutely in no way advocating that a person choose to remain above ground if they have the option of getting below ground during the treat of a tornado. The best action to take during a tornado is to get inside a sturdy structure, into a small interior room on the lowest floor.

The point of my technical blog post is to comment on the myth that you must get below ground to survive a tornado, which implies that those without a basement or safe room should evacuate or search for other shelter if faced with a confirmed large and dangerous tornado. Empirical evidence strongly suggests that your chance of surviving a violent tornado - one that completely destroys your house down to the foundation - is not low, even in portions of the country with few basements. This empirical evidence was corroborated by additional details on the Joplin tornado. I also showed evidence that the chance of fatality increases as the "relative sheltering" decreases.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 2876
650. ScottLincoln
5:41 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
Quoting 624. Sfloridacat5:
As long as it isn't a EF5 that does this to you house.

In my blog post I reference two papers that summarize fatalities in F5 tornadoes. The majority of persons survived in areas with F4/5 damage. The chance of being hit by the isolated areas of EF5 winds in the EF5 tornado is also quite small.
Quoting 625. Sfloridacat5:
Lets try this in a different post.

EF5 damage - nothing but slab left. But I do agree that most tornadoes (even EF3 or stronger ) are survivable if you get in the right location of the home.


Not sure how large this will appear.
Damage from May 15, 2013 GRANBURY, Texas -6 deaths
Not sure how this tornado was rated an EF4 with some homes "wiped clean from their foundations."
This house had just been finished being built a few hours before the tornado hit. Tornado left nothing but the slab.

An important discriminator in deciding EF4 vs. EF5 is how well the home was attached to the foundation. Typically engineers will look for a continuous load path through the structure into the foundation that provides resistance to high winds.

Also of note... a detached home of average construction that is completely swept clean has expected winds of 200 mph. With the new EF-scale, winds must be 201 or greater for an EF5 classification, meaning that homes must be of above-average construction, even if just slightly. This is a slight difference between the F-scale and the new EF-scale.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 2876
649. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:53 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
648. Skyepony (Mod)
3:51 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
Event into space in Greece on Friday, 29 November, 2013 at 04:31 (04:31 AM) UTC.
Description
Meteor falling into the sea at night time in Greece, on the island of Zakynthos to cause panic in citizens but concluded that there was no damage. Greek official news agency ANA-MPA reported, eyewitnesses of the air with a violent explosion that lit up one of the object, like a ball of fire fall very quickly towards the sea, the statement was given.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36107
647. Luisport
3:40 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
Quoting 642. Luisport:
Catastrophic situation in Madeira Island again due flash floods Link
Amount of rain 'comparable' to the 2010 catastrophic flash floods Link
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1948
646. PensacolaDoug
3:11 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
If its a chicken hawk, Foghorn Leghorn better hide.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
645. Patrap
3:08 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
644. lilElla
3:08 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
Quoting 643. Sfloridacat5:
Off topic
Just took a picture of this guy out my window. I guess it's some type of hawk.


my guess - either an immature Sharp-shinned or Coopers Hawk. Size and tail would help confirm.

Edit: after thinking about your location, Florida, and the speckled wing markings, I think this may be a red-shouldered hawk. :) One I rarely see in Wisconsin.
Member Since: December 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 272
643. Sfloridacat5
3:03 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
Off topic
Just took a picture of this guy out my window. I guess it's some type of hawk.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4790
642. Luisport
3:02 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
Catastrophic situation in Madeira Island again due flash floods Link
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1948
641. Sfloridacat5
2:54 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
Quoting 636. MPI88:


I find this a rather odd conclusion that more or less encourages inadequate sheltering.

Obviously tornado's do not have to be lethal when you are above ground. However the probability of getting injured greatly increases with inadequate sheltering.

Risk = probability x consequence.

Given the amount of uncertainty (tornado track, intensity, quality of your home) I would not take that bet. An 1% probability on a major consequence (death) is a no go.


I graduated from Moore High School just south of Oklahoma City. We had a house just West of Moore out in an undeveloped area at the time (just oil pumps).

I wouldn't live in Oklahoma (tornado alley region) of the country without a basement or a shelter of some kind.
Tornadoes 1962 - 2011 (Central Oklahoma)
Area just north of Oklahoma City shows a lot of long track tornadoes. This is also the area where the chasers were killed this year.


Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4790
640. Neapolitan
2:51 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
Quoting 636. MPI88:


I find this a rather odd conclusion that more or less encourages inadequate sheltering.

Obviously tornado's do not have to be lethal when you are above ground. However the probability of getting injured greatly increases with inadequate sheltering.

Risk = probability x consequence.

Given the amount of uncertainty (tornado track, intensity, quality of your home) I would not take that bet. An 1% probability on a major consequence (death) is a no go.
Huh? I see no signs of such "encouragement". The article Scott cited in his blog post merely explained in a very scientific and objective way that being above ground when a tornado hits is not an automatic death sentence. That's all.

(Announcing that not all people who smoke cigarettes die of cancer or emphysema shouldn't be looked at as "encouraging" people to smoke; it's just a simple statement of scientific fact.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13278
639. CybrTeddy
2:48 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
A shell of its former self.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23013
638. hydrus
2:41 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
Quoting 635. PensacolaDoug:



In a word, haulin' mass...
Yep. Speaking of which, if ISON would have been much larger, we would have had a great celestial show. jmo
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19558
637. Climate175
2:40 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
What does the Euro say?
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 2279
636. MPI88
2:33 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
Quoting 605. ScottLincoln:
Yes, you can survive that violent tornado above ground", and the odds are likely in your favor.


I find this a rather odd conclusion that more or less encourages inadequate sheltering.

Obviously tornado's do not have to be lethal when you are above ground. However the probability of getting injured greatly increases with inadequate sheltering.

Risk = probability x consequence.

Given the amount of uncertainty (tornado track, intensity, quality of your home) I would not take that bet. An 1% probability on a major consequence (death) is a no go.
Member Since: May 19, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 68
635. PensacolaDoug
2:30 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
Quoting 633. hydrus:
ISON was moving at speeds hard for many people to comprehend. The rule of thumb many years ago was if an object was moving faster than 72 kilometers per second, it come from outside the Solar System. ISON was moving at around or even over 80 KPS.



In a word, haulin' mass...
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
634. hydrus
2:29 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
Quoting 632. PensacolaDoug:
plus








equals
I,ll have one of who,s wearing I love Nestor.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19558
633. hydrus
2:27 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
Quoting 577. Patrap:
ISON was moving at speeds hard for many people to comprehend. The rule of thumb many years ago was if an object was moving faster than 72 kilometers per second, it come from outside the Solar System. ISON was moving at around or even over 80 KPS.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19558
632. PensacolaDoug
2:20 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
plus








equals
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
631. hydrus
2:14 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
Quoting 629. eyewallblues:
If Comet Ison teams up with Sub Tropical Storm Nestor....It is very apparent to me that we are DOOMED.
i done wanna die, sniffle, cry..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19558
630. GeoffreyWPB
1:58 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
From the Miami NWS Disco...

DISCUSSION...
A SLIGHTLY WARMER START TO THIS MORNING CAN BE FELT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA WHERE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE AROUND 7-10 DEGREES
WARMER THAT AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

A FAIRLY DOCILE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES WILL ALLOW NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS DURING THIS TIME WITH BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY OVER THE
ATLANTIC.

BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. A
THIN MOISTURE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY BRINGING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MODEST RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
629. eyewallblues
1:41 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
If Comet Ison teams up with Sub Tropical Storm Nestor....It is very apparent to me that we are DOOMED.
Member Since: September 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 168
628. Sfloridacat5
1:25 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
Big warm up compared to yesterday.
I woke up to 39 degrees at our house yesterday morning and 54 this morning.
15 degree warm up in 1 day.

Fort Myers Fl.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4790
627. SFLWeatherman
12:49 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
The Forecast was 61 degrees i got down to 55 degrees !:)Next Cold front on MONDAY!!:)
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4208
626. islander101010
12:31 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
comet? kind of like wishcasting this atlantic hurricane season
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
625. Sfloridacat5
12:26 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
Lets try this in a different post.

EF5 damage - nothing but slab left. But I do agree that most tornadoes (even EF3 or stronger ) are survivable if you get in the right location of the home.


Not sure how large this will appear.
Damage from May 15, 2013 GRANBURY, Texas -6 deaths
Not sure how this tornado was rated an EF4 with some homes "wiped clean from their foundations."
This house had just been finished being built a few hours before the tornado hit. Tornado left nothing but the slab.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4790
624. Sfloridacat5
12:22 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
Quoting 605. ScottLincoln:
FYI... in response to recent (and ongoing) discussions about tornado safety and the myth that persons must get below ground to survive a violent tornado, I have created a detailed blog post about mortality rates in violent tornadoes.%uFFFD Of particular note is information presented in the recently-released National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) report on the Joplin tornado, which allows some analysis to be done on survival vs. fatality depending on location and tornado strength.

In short, the science says that "Yes, you can survive that violent tornado above ground", and the odds are likely in your favor.

As long as it isn't a EF5 that does this to you house.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4790
623. islander101010
11:45 AM GMT on November 29, 2013
surf forecasting is not easy so many variables can affect the forecast.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
622. VR46L
11:44 AM GMT on November 29, 2013
Morning Folks !

Bracing day here ,



EDit withdrew comment maybe in bad taste
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6613
621. Andrebrooks
11:20 AM GMT on November 29, 2013
Quoting 616. Walshy:
My friend got kicked out of Walmart for recording black Friday footage, lol.

Elkin, North Carolina

Link
Lol.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 29 Comments: 946
620. LargoFl
9:49 AM GMT on November 29, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
619. LargoFl
9:47 AM GMT on November 29, 2013
Good Morning.Chilly here but not too bad this morning..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
618. Walshy
8:44 AM GMT on November 29, 2013
Quoting KoritheMan:

There was a supposed incident or two like that in the one I work at. Luckily, I was in automotive helping one of the assistants with TV sales.


Oh no. Someone posted this to reddit. Jumped to 114K views at night time. My local Walmart is going to be on the news tomorrow.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
617. KoritheMan
7:59 AM GMT on November 29, 2013

Quoting 616. Walshy:
My friend got kicked out of Walmart for recording black Friday footage, lol.

Elkin, North Carolina

Link
There was a supposed incident or two like that in the one I work at. Luckily, I was in automotive helping one of the assistants with TV sales.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19127
616. Walshy
7:50 AM GMT on November 29, 2013
My friend got kicked out of Walmart for recording black Friday footage, lol.

Elkin, North Carolina

Link
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
615. ChemPhysMath
6:58 AM GMT on November 29, 2013
Quoting 609. CybrTeddy:
Comet ISON is confirmed to have survived, partially, its encounter with the sun.


That's because it's really, really cold.
Member Since: August 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
614. Walshy
6:50 AM GMT on November 29, 2013
Significant ice storm on the GFS for North Carolina by December 10th. Taken verbatim, I would leave the area until power was restored.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
613. allancalderini
5:30 AM GMT on November 29, 2013
Looks like Nestor is not coming.FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND THE AZORES. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AS A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3707
612. bappit
5:25 AM GMT on November 29, 2013
From Houston-Galveston NWS discussion:

SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE DIMINISHED THE HIGH CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WHICH SHOULD HELP MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS...PREFERRED THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT OVER THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5561
611. Climate175
5:17 AM GMT on November 29, 2013
Quoting 607. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
system moved up into the mid 150 range lows 60's



For Dec 11-12th.
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 2279
610. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:01 AM GMT on November 29, 2013
way out into left field another sys showing for 192 204 216 hr





Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52267
609. CybrTeddy
5:00 AM GMT on November 29, 2013
Comet ISON is confirmed to have survived, partially, its encounter with the sun.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23013
608. Doppler22
4:57 AM GMT on November 29, 2013
Well, 9 heart attacks later (Due both to the amount of food eaten and the stressful Ravens game) I think I should go to bed. Good Night everyone!! Hope everyone sleeps well.

(And I did not actually have heart attacks. Just making a joke)
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 3265
607. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:56 AM GMT on November 29, 2013
Quoting 606. Climate175:
00z shows snow for MD again !
system moved up into the mid 150 range lows 60's



Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52267
606. Climate175
4:48 AM GMT on November 29, 2013
00z shows snow for MD again !
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 2279
605. ScottLincoln
4:42 AM GMT on November 29, 2013
FYI... in response to recent (and ongoing) discussions about tornado safety and the myth that persons must get below ground to survive a violent tornado, I have created a detailed blog post about mortality rates in violent tornadoes.  Of particular note is information presented in the recently-released National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) report on the Joplin tornado, which allows some analysis to be done on survival vs. fatality depending on location and tornado strength.

In short, the science says that "Yes, you can survive that violent tornado above ground", and the odds are likely in your favor.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 2876
604. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:22 AM GMT on November 29, 2013
see ya tomorrow ped

have a good evening
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52267
603. PedleyCA
4:21 AM GMT on November 29, 2013
Good Night Peeps - Stay Warm - Stay Safe - Enjoy what's left of the day....
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4928
602. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:20 AM GMT on November 29, 2013
like I said lets see what 00z run says
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52267

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.