Floods From Mediterranean Storm 'Ruven' Kill 18 in Sardinia, Italy

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:56 PM GMT on November 20, 2013

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Slow-moving and powerful Extratropical Storm Cleopatra (called Ruven by the Free University of Berlin) dumped prodigious rains over the Mediterranean island of Sardinia on Monday, triggering floods that have killed at least eighteen people. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the highest 24-hour rainfall recorded at an official station was 467 mm (18.39") measured at Orgosolo (Nuoro province.) Note that media reports on Tuesday incorrectly reported the deluge as occurring in less than two hours. Monday's deluge was at most the 3rd greatest 24-hour rainfall event for Sardinia. An October 16, 1951 storm brought 544 mm (21.42") in 24 hours to Sicca d' Erba, causing the greatest 20th Century flood in Sardinia history. Second place goes to Villagrande Strisaili on December 6, 2004, when 517mm (20.35") fell.


Figure 1. Extratropical Storm Cleopatra/Ruven over the Mediterranean at night, taken at approximately 6 UTC (1:30 am EST) November 19, 2013. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterrey.

Slow moving hybrid storm to blame
Monday's extreme rainfall event was caused by a slow-moving extratropical low pressure system that lingered over relatively warm 19 - 20°C waters Mediterranean waters long enough to develop a shallow warm core, according to cyclone phase space diagrams from the GFS and UKMET models available from Florida State University, and an analysis from the European Storm Forecast Experiment. As the low deepened to a central pressure near 990 mb, bands of heavy thunderstorms developed over the mountainous terrain of Sardinia and dumped torrential rains. Ocean temperatures were about 0.5°C (1°F) above average, which helped intensify the storm's rains. While the storm's shallow warm core meant that Cleopatra/Ruven had a hybrid nature and was able to pull heat energy out of the ocean like a hurricane does, this was not the primary cause of the heavy rain, which would have occurred without the storm having a shallow warm core. Hybrid storms that bring extreme weather to the Mediterranean happen regularly; I blogged in November 2011 about a hybrid storm (Rolf) that brought heavy rains and 95 mph wind gusts to Southern France.

The jet stream set-up for this extreme event was very much like the ones that spawned this year's destructive floods in Calgary, Canada, Boulder, Colorado, and Central Europe--a slow-moving upper low trapped to the south of a blocking ridge of high pressure. A NOAA chart showing the amount of "blocking"--where on the planet ridges of high pressure are getting "stuck"--shows pronounced blocking near 0°E (over the UK). The plot also shows a major block over Alaska, which has brought some remarkable warmth there (see Chris Burt's post on this, More Crazy Weather in Alaska). Slow-moving lows stay in place longer, allowing greater rains to fall over a localized area, increasing the risk of catastrophic flooding. A big question is how climate change may affect the incidence of blocking. The latest 2013 IPCC report has this to say about the subject: "Increased ability in simulating blocking in models and higher agreement on projections indicate that there is medium confidence that the frequency of Northern and Southern Hemisphere blocking will not increase, while trends in blocking intensity and persistence remain uncertain." It seems like we've been getting more than our fair share of these slow-moving "blocked" storms that generate extreme rainfall events, though; I discussed the possibility that climate change may be at work in this regard in a post on the $22 billion flood that hit Central Europe this summer.


Video 1. The BBC report, "Cyclone Cleopatra traumatises people of Sardinia." Thanks go to wunderground member barbamz for posting this link in my blog comments.

Jeff Masters

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567. VAbeachhurricanes
11:55 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
Quoting 552. barbamz:
Congratulations to India, technologically!



ISRO's Mars Orbiter sends first picture of Earth, cyclone Helen captured
Thursday, Nov 21, 2013, 20:44 IST | Place: Chennai | Agency: PTI

The severe cyclonic storm 'Helen' hurtling towards Andhra Pradesh coast has been captured by India's Mars Orbiter in the first image of the country beamed back in its maiden mission to Red Planet.

'Mangalyaan' has beamed back the first set of pictures of Earth, capturing the Indian subcontinent and parts of Africa, ISRO said here on Thursday. The storm, captured on Tuesday, is expected to hit the southern Andhra coast on Friday.

"We are checking the equipment on board the spacecraft. This picture is from Mars Color Camera, fitted on Mars Orbiter spacecraft taken on Tuesday at 1.50 PM from over 67,975 km altitude with a resolution of 3.53 km," ISRO sources told PTI. ...


Whole article see link above.


Great for them, its crazy how low quality it is though compared to our satellites.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5998
566. pie314271
5:29 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
Seems like this might get review for a hurricane.

000
WTNT64 KNHC 211540
TCUAT4

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1145 AM AST THU NOV 21 2013

...MELISSA A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...
...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN AZORES SOON...

SATELLITE DATA RECEIVED AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE LAST NHC ADVISORY
INDICATE THAT MELISSA IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE
SATELLITE DATA SHOWED THAT MELISSA HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL LIKELY
REACH THE WESTERN AZORES WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1145 AM AST...1545 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...40.1N 34.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WNW OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Member Since: July 6, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 79
565. Neapolitan
5:03 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
Quoting 526. 1900hurricane:

You got it, changed to "dang."
Some people find any minced oaths to be objectionable; to them, "dang" is every bit as upsetting and cause for alarm as the primary curse word from which it's derived. At the opposite end of the spectrum are those who look at being bothered by strings of vowels and consonants as more than a little silly. I guess I fall somewhere in between. That is, I wouldn't want this forum to debase itself by allowing every four-letter word imaginable; I'll just hang out with my biker friends if I want to experience that. But the occasional judicious usage of an adult exclamatory phrase here or there should be no cause for folks to edit and censor themselves--especially when the word used was a mild one that originally meant "the residue of rendered fat" and isn't even considered a swear word by most people...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13441
564. VR46L
4:51 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
Interesting article from the Capital hill gang On Urban heat

Inside Washington, D.C.’s urban heat island effect
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6797
563. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:49 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
562. eddye
4:49 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
keeper of the gate so it shows mid 40 in south fla
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
561. georgevandenberghe
4:46 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
Quoting 559. Sfloridacat5:


My mother used to love Fresca. I took a big drink of it and was like WTBLANK.



Maybe it wasn't your mother's Fresca


Prior to 1969 or so Fresca was made with cyclamates and I remember it being really good. But cyclamates were banned because of cancer risk and the new Fresca that came out in 1970 was .. not good!
Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 17 Comments: 1572
560. Sfloridacat5
4:42 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
S. Texas is in for a shock of winter. I used to live in San Antonio and Corpus Christi and this is a little early in the season for such a cold snap.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5886
559. Sfloridacat5
4:41 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
Quoting 556. StormTrackerScott:


It takes a special person to like Fresca as it taste terrible! Yuck!


My mother used to love Fresca. I took a big drink of it and was like WTBLANK.

Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5886
558. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:39 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
Quoting 554. eddye:
wow keeper of the gate that cold weather
those temps are in C not F dark red line is the freeze line
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
557. StormTrackerScott
4:39 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
Quoting 555. Patrap:
U betcha'

Ice,Ice, Baby





Looking like an active Winter around our parts Pat.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2227
556. StormTrackerScott
4:38 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
Quoting 553. PensacolaDoug:
Only Pat can make "Fresca" sound like an insult!



It takes a special person to like Fresca as it taste terrible! Yuck!
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2227
555. Patrap
4:36 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
U betcha'

Ice,Ice, Baby



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
554. eddye
4:34 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
wow keeper of the gate that cold weather
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
553. PensacolaDoug
4:34 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
Only Pat can make "Fresca" sound like an insult!

Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 549
552. barbamz
4:33 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
Congratulations to India, technologically!



ISRO's Mars Orbiter sends first picture of Earth, cyclone Helen captured
Thursday, Nov 21, 2013, 20:44 IST | Place: Chennai | Agency: PTI

The severe cyclonic storm 'Helen' hurtling towards Andhra Pradesh coast has been captured by India's Mars Orbiter in the first image of the country beamed back in its maiden mission to Red Planet.

'Mangalyaan' has beamed back the first set of pictures of Earth, capturing the Indian subcontinent and parts of Africa, ISRO said here on Thursday. The storm, captured on Tuesday, is expected to hit the southern Andhra coast on Friday.

"We are checking the equipment on board the spacecraft. This picture is from Mars Color Camera, fitted on Mars Orbiter spacecraft taken on Tuesday at 1.50 PM from over 67,975 km altitude with a resolution of 3.53 km," ISRO sources told PTI. ...


Whole article see link above.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 50 Comments: 5517
551. eddye
4:33 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
i would love 2 move somewhere it cold i used 2 live in jacksonville but it not very nice over their.
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
550. LargoFl
4:32 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
FL east coast with the rain again today..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36615
549. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:32 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
548. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:31 PM GMT on November 21, 2013

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
547. ricderr
4:28 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
eddye....might i give you some advice.....go to your local weather page here on WU...and look at the ten day forecast...you're chances of getting an accurate forecast will be greatly enhanced
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 670 Comments: 21298
546. eddye
4:28 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
because if we dont get any cold weather soon feel like moving 2 ny our minnesota
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
545. ncstorm
4:27 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
Quoting 539. SFLWeatherman:
12Z GFS 153HR


snow confined to the mountains now..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14227
544. StormTrackerScott
4:26 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
Look at how far south the 500 vorticity gets with this trough all the way into the Gulf. Very unusual to say the least.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2227
543. eddye
4:25 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
sfl weatherman when do u see mid 2 upper 40 for south fla
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
542. ricderr
4:24 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
I guess that's happens when your old you police everyone's comments when he says much worse but yet he is still here. He made I comment to you a few weeks ago and I was surprised he didn't get some sort of ban for that comment.

ones perception is not always reality....the fact that neither admin nor the mods banned him....might mean, better stated as must mean.... perception of some are skewed....and skewed do to a mistrust, dislike of the perceived blogger
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 670 Comments: 21298
541. StormTrackerScott
4:24 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
Quoting 534. eddye:
sfl weatherman does the gfs go out 2 dec 20th because i would like 2 knw if it shows cold in orlando


Hi Eddy, yes it looks like next Thursday it will get into the 40's at night maybe!
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2227
540. StormTrackerScott
4:23 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
Quoting 535. StormWx:


Oh yeah sport, chief, bubba!


You mean buddy.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2227
539. SFLWeatherman
4:22 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
12Z GFS 153HR
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4379
538. SFLWeatherman
4:21 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
IT goes out 2 dec 7th
Quoting 534. eddye:
sfl weatherman does the gfs go out 2 dec 20th because i would like 2 knw if it shows cold in orlando
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4379
537. ncstorm
4:21 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
Be prepared to camp out in those airports and train stations if you're traveling home for thanksgiving..

from the WPC

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1031 AM EST THU NOV 21 2013

VALID 12Z SUN NOV 24 2013 - 12Z THU NOV 28 2013


...LOW CROSSING THE SOUTH AND TURNING UP THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK
A CONCERN FOR TRAVEL..

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL HANGING BACK OVER NORTHERN MEXICO, THE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION SPREAD DOWNSTREAM REMAINS ENORMOUS. WHEN
THAT WAVE FINALLY EJECTS, ITS NORTHERN EXTENT WILL BE SUBJECT TO
THE PHASE OF THE PROGRESSION OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS SAILING ASTRIDE
THE CANADIAN BORDER. RELIED ON THE 06Z/21 GEFS MEAN AS A SYNOPTIC
BACKGROUND FOR THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES THIS PACKAGE. THIS
PARTICULAR ENSEMBLE MEAN KEPT MORE BAGGINESS IN THE ISOBARIC
PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY--A
REFLECTION OF A CLUSTER OF ITS INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS THAT INDICATED A
SLOWER EJECTION. SLOWER IS USUALLY BETTER WITH REGARD TO THE
PROGRESS OF SUCH SOUTHWEST HANGBACK TROUGHS, SO WANTED TO HEDGE
BETS IN THAT DIRECTION. PERUSAL OF THE 20 ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
COMPRISING THE 06Z/21 GEFS MEAN SHOWED DRAMATIC VARIATION--SOME
DRY, COLD SOLUTIONS FOR THE EAST COAST--SOME SNOWY ONES FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC--SOME RAINY, WINDY ONES ALL
THE WAY INTO NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION TYPE ASIDE, THE WAVE WILL
STILL AFFECT MAJOR AIRPORTS FROM DALLAS TO ATLANTA, AND PROBABLY
THE BIG HUBS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THE ALWAYS-BUSY TRAVEL
DAYS BEFORE THANKSGIVING.


THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE TWO EARLY SEASON ARCTIC OUTBREAKS FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FIRST SHOULD DELIVER A FRIGID
BLAST TO MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY. THE
SECOND IS SLATED TO BE DRAWN INTO THE SAME AREAS IN THE WAKE OF
THE SOUTHERN WAVE ON THANKSGIVING DAY. CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT
BASIN, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOULD BE IN A NO-MAN'S-LAND
REGION BETWEEN THE SPLIT STREAMS.


CISCO
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14227
536. ncstorm
4:18 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
Quoting 529. StormTrackerScott:


I guess that's happens when your old you police everyone's comments when he says much worse but yet he is still here. He made I comment to you a few weeks ago and I was surprised he didn't get some sort of ban for that comment.


I see nothing wrong with the word crap..its his own rule not WU..

by the way..its a beautiful day here in eastern NC..but our thanksgiving is looking to be ugly..I hope the east coast storm ends up being far east and we only have to deal with the cold

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14227
535. StormWx
4:14 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I guess that's happens when your old you police everyone's comments when he says much worse but yet he is still here. He made I comment to you a few weeks ago and I was surprised he didn't get some sort of ban for that comment.


Oh yeah sport, chief, bubba!
Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 892
534. eddye
4:13 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
sfl weatherman does the gfs go out 2 dec 20th because i would like 2 knw if it shows cold in orlando
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
533. barbamz
4:12 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
post #128: Ah, my English lesson for today, *visiting the Urban Dictionary again":

2. sport
the name your dad calls you by that makes you feel like a total loser, which you probably are anyway (synonyms: champ, chief, etc.)

I see, lol. In German it would be "alter Sportsfreund" (= "old mate in sports" or something like that ;)
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 50 Comments: 5517
532. eddye
4:12 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
keeper of the gate we need some 40 degree weather in south fla
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
531. SFLWeatherman
4:11 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
I need to get a new rain gauge my gauge stop working:(
Quoting 493. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Darn and I took apart my rain gauge. :(
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4379
530. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:09 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
529. StormTrackerScott
4:08 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
Quoting 528. ncstorm:
So when you throw out the next insult like "sport" or "denialist" you will think not to post it right or edit your post?? because we are responsible for our words??..walk the talk my friend..


I guess that's happens when your old you police everyone's comments when he says much worse but yet he is still here. He made I comment to you a few weeks ago and I was surprised he didn't get some sort of ban for that comment.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2227
528. ncstorm
3:58 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
So when you throw out the next insult like "sport" or "denialist" you will think not to post it right or edit your post?? because we are responsible for our words??..walk the talk my friend..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14227
527. Patrap
3:56 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
We all are responsible for our words.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
526. 1900hurricane
3:54 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
Quoting 522. Patrap:
# 519.

Can we do weather without the "C" word 1900,
I mean, would you use it on air?

A lot of Kids come here to learn about the weather.

Mature up. We not FB.

You got it, changed to "dang."
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11659
525. HuracanTaino
3:52 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
II
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 AM AST THU NOV 21 2013

...MELISSA EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY...
...GALE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------It won't be a fish after all, if it's going to affect the Azores....-------------------------------
LOCATION...40.0N 34.8W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 AM AST THU NOV 21 2013

MELISSA REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS MORNING...AS SATELLITE
PICTURES SHOW A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT SOME COLD AIR
HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...
BUT THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT IT HAS PENETRATED THE INNER CORE.
MELISSA WILL BE MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 17-18
DEGREES CELSIUS LATER TODAY AND THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WEST
OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD WRAP FURTHER AROUND THE CIRCULATION...CAUSING
MELISSA TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY
TO CHANGE LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS EAST-NORTHEAST AT 28 KT. THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD WITHIN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD IN WEAKER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND LITTLE
CHANGE WAS REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 40.0N 34.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 41.1N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 22/1200Z 42.0N 24.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/0000Z 42.2N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/1200Z 41.2N 17.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 774
524. Torito
3:52 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
Quoting 523. TropicalAnalystwx13:

000
WTNT64 KNHC 211540
TCUAT4

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1145 AM AST THU NOV 21 2013

...MELISSA A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...
...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN AZORES SOON...

SATELLITE DATA RECEIVED AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE LAST NHC ADVISORY
INDICATE THAT MELISSA IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE
SATELLITE DATA SHOWED THAT MELISSA HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL LIKELY
REACH THE WESTERN AZORES WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1145 AM AST...1545 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...40.1N 34.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WNW OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Silly errors. ;)
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
523. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:51 PM GMT on November 21, 2013

000
WTNT64 KNHC 211540
TCUAT4

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1145 AM AST THU NOV 21 2013

...MELISSA A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...
...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN AZORES SOON...

SATELLITE DATA RECEIVED AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE LAST NHC ADVISORY
INDICATE THAT MELISSA IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE
SATELLITE DATA SHOWED THAT MELISSA HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL LIKELY
REACH THE WESTERN AZORES WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1145 AM AST...1545 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...40.1N 34.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WNW OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
522. Patrap
3:49 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
The Arctic is on the move south.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
521. daddyjames
3:47 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
Quoting 517. VR46L:


Morning !

I was just looking at this map It looks horrible fpr you ...





AH, it could be worse (shh, did say that, don't want to tempt the weather gods). Here's what they are saying:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM
THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY.

* TIMING: LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT: FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND A
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AS LATE
AS SATURDAY MORNING. ICE ACCUMULATION NEAR ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
IS EXPECTED ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES...POWERLINES AND
BRIDGES. SOME LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE SLIGHTLY MORE OR LESS
ACCUMULATION.

* OTHER IMPACTS: STRONG NORTH WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
THE WEIGHT OF THE ICE ON POWERLINES AND TREES COULD RESULT IN
SOME POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. ELEVATED ROADWAYS
SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY DEVELOP A THIN LAYER OF ICE
RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL OK. SOME SNOW AND SLEET IS ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
LESS THAN ONE INCH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

However, it is not expected to impact the entire state, so this will be a more "location" specific event. I hope that my location fares well, of course. :)

Edit: The METS are also calling for the potential for severe storms to the southern part of the state.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
520. barbamz
3:47 PM GMT on November 21, 2013

Windforecast for Helen at the Eastern Coast of India (saved animation). Source Incois.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 50 Comments: 5517
519. 1900hurricane
3:47 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
The NAM seems to be having trouble ejecting the SWUS closed low so this solution isn't the most likely to verify, but dang, check out the 12Z @ 72 hours for western Texas!

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11659
518. luvtogolf
3:44 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
Quoting 509. MississippiWx:
I hope this is a precursor to our winter pattern this year. Gulf lows + cold air = the best weather.



El Nino?
Member Since: June 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 923
517. VR46L
3:43 PM GMT on November 21, 2013
Quoting 511. daddyjames:
G'morning from central OK,

I think this says it all:



A grey and dreary day, rain until midnight, freezing rain afterwards through tomorrow noon. Anything ice (hail, freezing rain) I don't like.

A couple of days break, and then the chance for this.



Blah, old man winter is coming early this year.

Cheers to you! Hope all is well.


Morning !

I was just looking at this map It looks horrible fpr you ...



Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6797

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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