Rare November Tornado Outbreak Kills 6; Subtropical Storm Melissa Forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on November 18, 2013

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A rare and deadly late-season tornado and severe weather outbreak blitzed the Midwest U.S. on Sunday, killing at least six people and leaving widespread significant damage. A tornado preliminarily rated as a violent EF-4 touched down in New Minden, Illinois, east of St. Louis, carving a path of destruction three miles long, killing two people, and blowing semi trucks off of I-64. The twister was one of only twenty EF-4s to occur in the U.S. in November dating back to 1950, and was the third most northerly November EF-4 ever observed, according to data from the Tornado History Project. The most widespread damage from Sunday's outbreak occurred in the town of Washington (population 16,000), about 140 miles southwest of Chicago, where another powerful EF-4 tornado destroyed or heavily damaged 250 - 500 homes and an apartment complex. A northern Illinois man says he discovered mail belonging to Washington residents on his property in Channahon, about 80 miles northeast Washington, according to the (Peoria) Journal-Star. Three other tornado deaths occurred in Massac County in the far southern part of Illinois, making Sunday the deadliest November tornado outbreak in Illinois history. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 68 preliminary tornado reports, along with 412 reports of high wind gusts and 32 reports of hail. Sixteen of the wind gusts were in excess of 74 mph (hurricane strength.)


Figure 1. A view of part of Washington, Illinois from Mackenzie Street on Sunday, Nov. 17, 2013 after a tornado tore through the area. (AP Photo/Alex Kareotes)


Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image of the supercell thunderstorm that spawned the Washington, Illinois tornado of November 17, 2013.

A strange 2013 tornado season
Sunday's tornado outbreak is yet another anomaly in what has been a very unusual 2013 tornado season. The top three tornado outbreaks have occurred in November, January, and October--well outside the usual spring/summer peak of tornado season:

Top Five Tornado Days of 2013
------------------------------------------
01/29/13: 62 tornadoes
11/17/13: 68 (filtered) tornadoes, but likely to decrease once damage surveys completed
10/31/13: 42 tornadoes
05/20/13: 32 tornadoes
05/31/13: 30 tornadoes

It's been an unusually slow severe weather season, with the 2013 preliminary tally of 818 tornadoes before Sunday the lowest year-to-date count since the extreme drought year of 1988. However, when severe weather outbreaks have come, they have been unusually destructive. According to Aon Benfield, there have been five severe weather outbreaks topping $1 billion in damages this year. This is the third highest number of such disasters on record, going back to 1980. The record is shared by 2011 and 2012, with seven billion-dollar-plus severe weather outbreaks, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. According to Aon Benfield, "prior to Sunday’s outbreak, both economic and insured losses attributed to severe weather were slightly below the 10-year average in 2013. Thus far, economic losses from convective storm events were roughly USD15.7 billion and approximately USD9.2 billion of those losses were covered by insurance. The 2003-2012 averages are USD17 billion and USD11 billion, respectively. It remains too early to project losses from Sunday’s event." The most expensive and deadliest severe weather outbreak of 2013 hit on May 20, when Moore, Oklahoma was devastated by an EF-5 tornado that killed 23 people and did $2 billion in damage. Yesterday's damage was severe and widespread, and there is a good chance the outbreak will become the first-ever billion-dollar severe weather outbreak to hit in November.


Figure 3. Prior to Sunday's severe weather outbreak, there were seven billion-dollar weather disasters in the U.S. in 2013. Five of these disasters were severe weather outbreaks--the third highest such total in history.

November tornado outbreaks: how rare?
Since 1950, there have been 2211 November tornadoes, killing 251 and injuring 5060.

Deadliest: 24 killed, 11/06/2005, F-3 tornado near Evansville, Indiana
Longest path: 160 miles, 11/23/1992, F-3 tornado in North Carolina
Most November tornadoes: 154 in 2004 (both 2005 and 1992 had 153)

Here is a list of the largest November tornado outbreaks since 1950:

95 tornadoes: November 21–23, 1992, Texas to Mississippi and into the Ohio Valley. The most intense and largest November outbreak on record in U.S. history. Produced violent tornadoes from Texas to Mississippi and into the Ohio Valley, including six F4s and two extremely long-track tornadoes, 160 miles and 128 miles.
75 tornadoes: November 9–11, 2002, Southeast U.S. and Ohio Valley. Very large and deadly outbreak produced multiple killer tornadoes across the Ohio Valley and Southeastern United States. A violent F4 hit Van Wert, Ohio, killing four people. Deadly F3 also hit Mossy Grove, Tennessee, killing seven.
67 tornadoes: November 23–24, 2001, Southeast U.S. Thirteen people killed.
50 tornadoes: November 15, 2005, Central and Southeast U.S. One person killed.
50 tornadoes: November 15 - 16, 1987, Oklahoma, Texas, and Mississippi
46 tornadoes: November 27–28, 2005, Central and Southeast U.S. One person killed.
44 tornadoes: November 15, 1988, Central and Eastern U.S.
40 tornadoes: November 15 - 16, 1989, Produced a deadly F4 that struck Huntsville, Alabama, at rush hour. Strong tornadoes touched down as far north as Quebec.

Sunday's outbreak will probably rank as the fourth most prolific November tornado outbreak since 1950. But what was really remarkable about the outbreak was how far north it extended, with severe thunderstorms and tornado warnings issued in Wisconsin and Michigan. NWS Gaylord has confirmed an EF-0 at I-75 near Waters yesterday, which closed the highway. This is the farthest north there's been a tornado in Michigan in November or this late in the year in the period of modern tornado records (1950-present), and only the seventh November tornado recorded in Michigan. In Southeast Lower Michigan where I live, I've never seen such a powerful and long-lasting high wind event during the 40 years I've lived here. As I sawed up the downed tree blocking my street last night, accompanied by wild winds, flashing lightning, and the eerie orange glow of a nearby electrical transformer blowing, I reflected once again how the severe weather season has become increasingly noticeable in cold season months here. These events are rare enough and our database is so poor that we can't make any definitive statements on how climate change may be affecting them, but one would expect to see cold-season severe weather events become increasingly common farther to the north in a warming climate. According to the Chicago NWS, prior to Sunday’s tornado outbreak, there had been just twelve November tornadoes since 1950 in the 23-county region of Northeast Illinois and Northwest Indiana that they service (six of these twisters touched down on November 12, 1965.) Preliminary tornado reports indicate that as many as six tornadoes may touched down Sunday in the region (four in Will County, one in Grundy County, and one in Newton County.) November tornadoes tend to be strong and destructive, and any shift to a climate with more of these beasts will be unwelcome. The Chicago NWS wrote: "Eight of the twelve previous November tornadoes were EF-2 or stronger, showing that when tornadoes do occur in November, there is a decent likelihood they will be significant (EF-2 or stronger). The primary reason for this is strong dynamics and wind field that tend to be present in the cool season (late autumn and winter), which add to a greater amount of wind shear.  This is a key component to tornadoes, and the greater the wind shear the more likelihood for significant tornadoes."


Figure 4. MODIS image of Subtropical Storm Melissa, taken at 13:30 UTC (8:30 am EST) November 18, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Subtropical Storm Melissa forms
A large low pressure system centered about 740 miles east-southeast of Bermuda acquired enough organization to become Subtropical Storm Melissa, the 13th Atlantic named storm of 2013. The storm is generating sustained winds in excess of tropical storm force, as seen on the latest ASCAT satellite wind map. Ocean temperatures are near 27°C, which is about 1°C above average, and plenty warm enough to support tropical storm formation. While wind shear is currently a high 30 - 40 knots, it is expected to drop to the moderate range on Tuesday before increasing again on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that Melissa has a large band of heavy thunderstorms displaced more than 100 miles from the center of circulation, which is characteristic of a subtropical storm. Heavy thunderstorm activity near the center is beginning to build, so it is possible that NHC would classify this system as Tropical Storm Melissa on Tuesday. Melissa will not be a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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464. Neapolitan
4:03 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Quoting 446. pcola57:


Thanks for that Nea..
sorry about the late response..
Dog needed to go out..
What I'm trying to visualize is how many times over will that in a gaseous state would cover the surface of the Earth..
A common man's comparison..
Would that be as tall as a skyscraper from sea level? ect..
Well, the numbers I gave were for an atmosphere of 100% gaseous CO2 at standard pressure. A year's worth of our CO2 emissions would yield more than 20,000 cubic kilometers of pure CO2 at that pressure. That's a cube roughly 27 kilometers on a side. But, of course, CO2 in our atmosphere isn't anywhere close to 100% it's a well-mixed gas that just this past year briefly reached 400 parts per million for the first time in hundreds of thousands of years. That doesn't sound like much, but it's far more than enough to cause the heating we've been seeing.

Yes, the earth's atmosphere is a big place, and encompasses a vast volume. But at the current rate of around 4.1 million metric tons of CO2 per hour, we're doing our best to fill it up as quickly as we can... :-\
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13278
463. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:59 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
462. barbamz
3:59 PM GMT on November 19, 2013

Current rain rate in the Mediterranean area with "Cleopatra".
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 44 Comments: 5030
461. Torito
3:54 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Quoting 460. Patrap:
Dr. Ricky Rood's Climate Change Blog

Change in the Weather: Climate Change and Arctic Oscillation (7)
By: Dr. Ricky Rood, 11:14 PM CST on November 18, 2013


I will come back to this below, but first a reminder of the other ideas I introduced in the middle part of the series. Most importantly, there is a stream of air that wants to flow around the North Pole. Likely in a world that has no mountains, no land and water sitting next to each other, then that air would actually circulate with the pole in the center. We live in a world with mountains and oceans and continents, which distort this stream of air. It’s a little like boulders in a creek, and water going around the boulders. The stream becomes wavy. There are other factors that also cause the air to be wavy, but I have introduced enough to make my points, and you can go back to the earlier blogs linked at the bottom for words and pictures. What causes the air to spin around the North Pole? The first thing to consider is the rotation of the Earth. The Earth’s atmosphere wants to line up with the rotation. Another important factor in determining the details of the air circulating around the North Pole is heating and cooling. The patterns of heating and cooling contribute to setting up high-pressure and low-pressure systems. Air flows from high to low pressure and as it flows towards low pressure it does its best to line up with the rotation of the Earth. This relation between high and low pressure and the Earth’s rotation is one of the most important features of the motion of the air in the atmosphere and the water in the ocean.



Pat...... No Tuesday tussles, alright? ;)
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
460. Patrap
3:53 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Dr. Ricky Rood's Climate Change Blog

Change in the Weather: Climate Change and Arctic Oscillation (7)
By: Dr. Ricky Rood, 11:14 PM CST on November 18, 2013


I will come back to this below, but first a reminder of the other ideas I introduced in the middle part of the series. Most importantly, there is a stream of air that wants to flow around the North Pole. Likely in a world that has no mountains, no land and water sitting next to each other, then that air would actually circulate with the pole in the center. We live in a world with mountains and oceans and continents, which distort this stream of air. It’s a little like boulders in a creek, and water going around the boulders. The stream becomes wavy. There are other factors that also cause the air to be wavy, but I have introduced enough to make my points, and you can go back to the earlier blogs linked at the bottom for words and pictures. What causes the air to spin around the North Pole? The first thing to consider is the rotation of the Earth. The Earth’s atmosphere wants to line up with the rotation. Another important factor in determining the details of the air circulating around the North Pole is heating and cooling. The patterns of heating and cooling contribute to setting up high-pressure and low-pressure systems. Air flows from high to low pressure and as it flows towards low pressure it does its best to line up with the rotation of the Earth. This relation between high and low pressure and the Earth’s rotation is one of the most important features of the motion of the air in the atmosphere and the water in the ocean.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
459. Torito
3:50 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
458. Torito
3:47 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Potential severe weather for the northeast 132 hours out.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
457. Torito
3:43 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
I hope GFDL does not play out here.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
456. VAbeachhurricanes
3:42 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Quoting 453. standurground:
Food for thought: "Is AGW man's slow slide into extinction?". If so the problem is going to be self-correcting.


We will not go extinct from it, could drive the population down a bit.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5697
455. pcola57
3:42 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Quoting 448. Patrap:


A lot.

The Warming continues on the High side of the climate models, as the Climate models as a whole have underplayed the warming collectively for a decade.

We stay on the High side of most if not all the trend lines upward.

The tipping points are closer, and some..here already,

as the Grand Experiment continues, unabated.



But awareness of it doubles every day.

Food fo thought.





Hey Pat..
I'm in total agreement with ya..

It's so hard for me to wrap my head around the 36 Billion tonne record carbon pollution data ..
It's in a gaseous state as we all know..
And seems to be invisible to the naked eye when mixed with the other gases present in the atmosphere..
I think a visualization would be so much better way to put that figure for those of us (as you know.. :)
That have a lacking ability to comprehend the figures without the comparison..

The chart is one way..
I was hoping for an common man's comparison for another way of understanding that figure..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6656
454. Torito
3:41 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Very wide area of high seas are associated with Melissa.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
453. standurground
3:40 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Food for thought: "Is AGW man's slow slide into extinction?". If so the problem is going to be self-correcting.
Member Since: August 10, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
452. Torito
3:37 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Mag 6.3 in Indonesia!



Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
451. VAbeachhurricanes
3:33 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Quoting 442. Neapolitan:
Aw, c'mon; that's only 4.1 million metric tons of the stuff--or 2.28 billion cubic meters--per hour. So we should be worried only if we think that the 55 cubic kilometers (or so) of excess CO2 we're pumping into the atmosphere every single day can possibly have an adverse effect on things.


Go to China and ask them politely to stop, I'm sure they will.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5697
450. barbamz
3:30 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Quoting 439. HrDelta:


I know we have had a few screwball Warm-Core Cyclones in the Mediterranean. Was Cleopatra one of them.


I can only quote estofex.org (see post #391):
"Latest phase diagrams now agree in a shallow warm-core structure with that feature."
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 44 Comments: 5030
449. cRRKampen
3:30 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Quoting 446. pcola57:


Thanks for that Nea..
sorry about the late response..
Dog needed to go out..
What I'm trying to visualize is how many times over will that in a gaseous state would cover the surface of the Earth..
A common man's comparison..
Would that be as tall as a skyscraper from sea level? ect..

No way.
Air at the density of water covers with 10 metres, 13 centimetres (cf unit of atmosphere).
Water 2700m.

A few tenths of ppm were added to the air this year. An almost two inch layer of CO2 got closer to two inches, say.
Member Since: April 3, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 132
448. Patrap
3:30 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Quoting 438. pcola57:


Good Morning Hilde..
Can anyone here give me an area conversion for the 36 billion tonnes?


A lot.

The Warming continues on the High side of the climate models, as the Climate models as a whole have underplayed the warming collectively for a decade.

We stay on the High side of most if not all the trend lines upward.

The tipping points are closer, and some..here already,

as the Grand Experiment continues, unabated.



But awareness of it doubles every day.

Food fo thought.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
447. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:28 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
21:00 PM JST November 19 2013
====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 3.0N 105.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43689
446. pcola57
3:23 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Quoting 442. Neapolitan:
Aw, c'mon; that's only 4.1 million metric tons of the stuff--or 2.28 billion cubic meters--per hour. So we should be worried only if we think that the 55 cubic kilometers (or so) of excess CO2 we're pumping into the atmosphere every single day can possibly have an adverse effect on things.


Thanks for that Nea..
sorry about the late response..
Dog needed to go out..
What I'm trying to visualize is how many times over will that in a gaseous state would cover the surface of the Earth..
A common man's comparison..
Would that be as tall as a skyscraper from sea level? ect..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6656
445. Torito
3:22 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Quoting 443. Neapolitan:
Probably because the NHC does. And so does WU, for that matter...


Actually, I am pretty sure that the NHC does not count Subtropical systems in ACE....

But it doesn't matter.... The NHC says that Melissa will become tropical soon.

This is from NOAA..

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index is calculated by summing the squares of the estimated 6-hourly maximum sustained wind speed in knots (Vmax2) for all periods in which the tropical cyclone is a tropical storm or greater intensity (sustained winds of 34 kt or greater). Note that the official NOAA definition of the ACE Index does not include those periods when the system is characterized as sub-tropical. However, we are including this information to allow for comparison between individual cyclones across all basins, many of which contain records which inadequately distinguish between tropical and subtropical cyclones. For a complete description of the ACE Index see Bell and Chelliah (2006), Journal of Climate (19) 590-612.

Link

From this, we get the impression that unnoficial numbers include subtropical systems, but official summaries do not.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
444. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:22 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEPRESSION BOB06-2013
17:30 PM IST November 19 2013
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The depression over west central Bay of Bengal moved northwestward and now lays center near 15.0N 85.0E, about 550 km east-northeast of Chennai, 430 km east-southeast of Machilipatnam and 350 km south-southeast of Vishakhapatnam.

The system would intensify into a deep depression during next 12 hours. It would move west northwestwards for some time, then west southwestward and cross south Andhra Pradesh and adjoining north Tamil Nadu coast between Chennai and Ongole around Thursday night.


According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken low/medium cloud embedded with moderate to intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 13.5N to 18.5N and 83.0E to 88.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -75C. Convective banding is more pronounced in northeast sector of the system. Convection near the center has organized and consolidated during the past 6 hours.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center. The central pressure of the depression is 1004 hPa.

A buoy located near 14.7N and 86.0E reported mean sea level pressure of 1009.3 hPa, 24 hour pressure change of -2.4 hPa and a ship near 16.0N and 87.0E reported mean sea level pressure of 1010.5 hPa, wind of 21 knots at 1200 UTC November 19th.

The depression lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge which runs along 17.0N. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity are favorable for intensification and they have increased during past 12 hours. The sea surface temperature is about 28-29C. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is moderate to high (15-25 knots). The Madden= Jullian oscillation index lies over phase 1 with amplitude less than 1. Numerical weather prediction models suggest that Madden-Jullian oscillation index would continue in phase 1 during next 3 days with amplitude less than 1. The current phase and amplitude are not very supportive for intensification.

Divergence in numerical weather prediction models guidance continues with respect to landfall point and time, as the track forecast varies from west southwest to northwest direction. With respect to intensification, there is more consensus suggesting slow intensification or no intensification. Current forecast is based on consensus numerical weather prediction and synoptic analysis.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43689
443. Neapolitan
3:18 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Quoting 436. Tropicsweatherpr:
Why Dr Maue is counting ACE units for Melissa being Subtropical?

Link
Probably because the NHC does. And so does WU, for that matter...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13278
442. Neapolitan
3:17 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Quoting 430. HildeAndJohn:
Global carbon emissions set to reach record 36 billion tonnes in 2013!

Link
Aw, c'mon; that's only 4.1 million metric tons of the stuff--or 2.28 billion cubic meters--per hour. So we should be worried only if we think that the 55 cubic kilometers (or so) of excess CO2 we're pumping into the atmosphere every single day can possibly have an adverse effect on things.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13278
441. barbamz
3:17 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Death toll in Sardinia is now at 18 :(

--------------

Updated BBC article
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 44 Comments: 5030
440. Torito
3:16 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Quoting 438. pcola57:


Good Morning Hilde..
Can anyone here give me an area conversion for the 36 billion tonnes?


That is not very easy to do..... Air temperature.... Pressure.... Many other things affect the amount of area that 36 billion tonnes would take up.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
439. HrDelta
3:13 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Quoting 404. barbamz:

Waterspout today in the harbour of Gallipoli at the southeastern tip of Italy (Ionian Sea). Pretty wild!


Probably the same one when developing.



I know we have had a few screwball Warm-Core Cyclones in the Mediterranean. Was Cleopatra one of them.
Member Since: October 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 450
438. pcola57
3:08 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Quoting 430. HildeAndJohn:
Global carbon emissions set to reach record 36 billion tonnes in 2013!

Link


Good Morning Hilde..
Can anyone here give me an area conversion for the 36 billion tonnes?
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6656
437. Torito
3:07 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Quoting 436. Tropicsweatherpr:
Why Dr Maue is counting ACE units for Melissa being Subtropical?


Some people do, others don't.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
436. Tropicsweatherpr
3:06 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Why Dr Maue is counting ACE units for Melissa being Subtropical?

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13311
435. Skyepony (Mod)
3:01 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Quoting 413. MahFL:


You mean EF5 right ? Cat5 is a hurricane.....


I totally meant EF5. LOL, I was blogging overtired.. Think I was going to post about Melissa & got in the tornado discussion.

Melissa..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36107
434. Torito
2:59 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
VARIOUS SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF MELISSA
IS LOCATED ABOUT 20 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS. HOWEVER...

SOME WEAK ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN THE INNER
CORE REGION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THE
CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE SEPARATING FROM THE ELONGATED PARENT CLOUD
BAND THAT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST OF MELISSA. THESE INDICATORS
SUGGEST THAT MELISSA IS TRYING TO MAKE TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.


THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 55 KT BASED
ON A 55-KT SUBTROPICAL SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/09 KT. A STRONG COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING BERMUDA FROM THE
WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE MELISSA NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...AND CONTINUE THAT MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. BY
96-120 HOURS...THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT OF MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND CEASE TO EXIST
AS A SEPARATE ENTITY. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS DEVELOPING TRACK SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCA AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.

THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
JUXTAPOSED DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS WHEN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO BE AT ITS LOWEST VALUE OF AROUND 10 KT. THIS SHOULD
HELP MELISSA TO TRANSITION FROM A SUBTROPICAL TO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. IT IS
STILL POSSIBLE THAT MELISSA COULD OBTAIN HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE
THE CYCLONE REACHES SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATER AND MOVES INTO A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN 24-36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON.

TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII FORECASTS DURING THE
EXTRATROPICAL STAGE AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND WERE COORDINATED WITH
THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
433. Torito
2:56 PM GMT on November 19, 2013

...MELISSA STILL MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 54.6W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST. THE
STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED...AND MELISSA IS
ANTICIPATED TO TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM...FROM THE
CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
432. StormWx
2:56 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Um.....BRRRRRRRRRR

Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 439
431. Jedkins01
2:55 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Quoting 373. barbamz:
Good morning everybody.


Raw-Video with aerial views.

Very bad news emerge from Sardinia (Italy) in the Mediterranean Sea (I've posted last night about the developing situation over there):

Sardinia hit by deadly cyclone and flooding
BBC News, 19 November 2013 Last updated at 09:11 GMT

At least 16 people have been killed in flooding prompted by a cyclone and heavy rain that swept through the Italian island of Sardinia.

A number of people are reported missing after rivers burst their banks, sweeping cars away and causing bridges to collapse.

The worst-hit area appears to be in and around the north-eastern city of Olbia.

Prime Minister Enrico Letta has spoken of a "national tragedy" and a state of emergency is expected to be declared.

"We're at maximum alert," Giorgio Cicalo, an official from Sardinia's civil protection authority, told Italy's Rai TV.

"We haven't seen a situation as extreme as this, perhaps for decades. Especially because it's been across the whole island."

Hundreds of people across the Mediterranean island have been moved from their homes because of the flooding caused by Cyclone Cleopatra.

Sardinian Governor Ugo Cappellacci told Italian TV that the situation on the island was "dramatic".

Olbia Mayor Gianni Giovanelli was quoted by Sky TG24 as saying that the city had been hit by an "apocalyptic"' storm.

Cyclones are extremely rare in the Mediterranean. ...


Whole article see link above.

And "Cleopatra" keeps on dumping rain onto Sardinia:




Cleopatra (saved image). Source.


Sad news, 17 inches of rain in a Mediterranean climate...
I would imagine that is close to the average YEARLY rainfall( correct me if I'm wrong).

Flooding is always the biggest killer, I think partly it is because people always take more risks with it and underestimate it despite the emphasis on flooding danger.

Many people survive tornadoes because the deafening roar and buildings and other objects getting ripped apart around them cause people to go into survival mode, in such instances, people think much smarter and are much better and knowing how to survive.

However with flooding, you ALWAYS here of people driving through flooded roadways that clearly are putting one's life at risk when it is completely unnecessary. People just don't take the destructive power of water seriously enough.

That's why as a whole, we still focus on winds too often with hurricanes, like with Sandy "but its only a category 1 how could it be that dangerous?".

Even with powerful wind storms like Haiyan, I'm sure that when all is said and done, most of the thousands who were killed was from flooding due to surge and rain.

I've heard that many have said in the Philippines about Haiyan something along these lines: " Nobody told us a tsunami was coming."

While a great job was done in evacuating a massive amount of people, I suspect the government focused too much on the 190 mph winds rather than the violent and destructive surge which I was most worried about. We have not in recent history seen how powerful the surge can be of a tropical cyclone at that power. Now we know...
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6867
430. HildeAndJohn
2:51 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Global carbon emissions set to reach record 36 billion tonnes in 2013!

Link
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429. pcola57
2:48 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Quoting 410. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Cold front is right on top of us. Trof has pushed south into Central FL.



And it's very nice here now where I'm at..
56Degrees and for us a low humidity of 66%..
Morning GT.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6656
428. Torito
2:46 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Quoting 426. pcola57:


Morning Torito.. :)
Taz's link worked for me..
And yours too.. :)


I think my browser didn't like the "11101111" in Taz's link.

Morning, Pcola.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
427. Tropicsweatherpr
2:45 PM GMT on November 19, 2013

SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 AM AST TUE NOV 19 2013

VARIOUS SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF MELISSA
IS LOCATED ABOUT 20 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS. HOWEVER...SOME WEAK ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN THE INNER
CORE REGION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THE
CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE SEPARATING FROM THE ELONGATED PARENT CLOUD
BAND THAT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST OF MELISSA. THESE INDICATORS
SUGGEST THAT MELISSA IS TRYING TO MAKE TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 55 KT BASED
ON A 55-KT SUBTROPICAL SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/09 KT. A STRONG COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING BERMUDA FROM THE
WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE MELISSA NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...AND CONTINUE THAT MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. BY
96-120 HOURS...THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT OF MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND CEASE TO EXIST
AS A SEPARATE ENTITY. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS DEVELOPING TRACK SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCA AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.

THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
JUXTAPOSED DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS WHEN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO BE AT ITS LOWEST VALUE OF AROUND 10 KT. THIS SHOULD
HELP MELISSA TO TRANSITION FROM A SUBTROPICAL TO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. IT IS
STILL POSSIBLE THAT MELISSA COULD OBTAIN HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE
THE CYCLONE REACHES SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATER AND MOVES INTO A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN 24-36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON.

TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII FORECASTS DURING THE
EXTRATROPICAL STAGE AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND WERE COORDINATED WITH
THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 31.9N 54.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 33.9N 52.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 36.6N 48.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 39.5N 43.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 42.2N 37.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/1200Z 46.5N 29.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/1200Z 53.2N 26.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13311
426. pcola57
2:45 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Quoting 423. Torito:



That radar doesn't work for me. :( Just a big blue screen.

This one does though.

Link


Morning Torito.. :)
Taz's link worked for me..
And yours too.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6656
425. Torito
2:44 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
SpinSpinSpinSpin...

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
424. pcola57
2:43 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Quoting 413. MahFL:


You mean EF5 right ? Cat5 is a hurricane.....


Thanks Maha.. :)
I understand Skyes point though..
How ya'll this am?
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6656
423. Torito
2:39 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Quoting 422. Tazmanian:




dont be a smarty pants now plzs

this is a better rader i ues all the time

Link



That radar doesn't work for me. :( Just a big blue screen.

This one does though.

Link
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
422. Tazmanian
2:36 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Quoting 421. Torito:



LOL... Here you go taz... A genuine radar from CA...



By the way... What happened to the thought of no more storms in the Atlantic?..

Told ya to wait till the 30th. ;)




dont be a smarty pants now plzs

this is a better rader i ues all the time

Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114066
421. Torito
2:34 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Quoting 418. Tazmanian:



hey you for got CA



LOL... Here you go taz... A genuine radar from CA...



By the way... What happened to the thought of no more storms in the Atlantic?..

Told ya to wait till the 30th. ;)
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
420. barbamz
2:34 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Rare downpours and floods hit Saudi capital
by Agence France-Presse
Rappler, posted on 11/18/2013 7:30 AM | Updated 11/18/2013 7:31 AM

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia - Rare heavy downpours triggered flash floods in the Saudi capital on Sunday, November 17, forcing schools and universities to close and prompting calls by the authorities for citizens to remain indoors.

At least three people were reported missing, the state news agency SPA said quoting civil defense spokesman Colonel Abdullah al-Harithi.

He added that authorities assisted dozens of people trapped by the floods, a rare phenomenon to hit the capital of the desert kingdom.

Heavy rains, accompanied by thunderstorms, have lashed Riyadh since late Saturday, November 16, triggering flash floods in several districts and cutting off power in the city's north, according to residents.

Harithi urged Riyadh citizens, estimated at more than five million people, to stay away from rivers, valleys and flooded tunnels while the education ministry ordered schools and university closed Sunday.

Saudi Arabia, like other desert countries, rarely sees heavy rainfall and religious leaders often organize prayers for rain.

But in May last year around 20 people were killed in flooding that swept parts of Saudi Arabia, which had not experienced such a high volume of rainfall for 25 years.

And in 2011, around 10 people were killed in floods in the western city of Jeddah, where 123 people also perished in floods in 2009. ...


Saudi Arabia floods kill four
November 19, 2013 04:53 PM (Last updated: November 19, 2013 05:00 PM)




Crazy!!
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 44 Comments: 5030
419. GeorgiaStormz
2:33 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Tex-Mex snow

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9453
418. Tazmanian
2:32 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Quoting 414. Torito:
Not much weather is going on in the US... I mean, there's some rain heading into Washington and Oregon, but that's about it.




hey you for got CA
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114066
417. Torito
2:28 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Quoting 416. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Victor Gensini ‏@gensiniwx 17 Nov
Initial stage of tornado. Taken near East Peoria. pic.twitter.com/LHERGDfv2L



Is that a kite I see in the sky? 0_0
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
416. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:27 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Victor Gensini ‏@gensiniwx 17 Nov
Initial stage of tornado. Taken near East Peoria. pic.twitter.com/LHERGDfv2L

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 6699
415. GeorgiaStormz
2:26 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Having taken calculus, I finally understand dProg/dt

Now I wonder what:
antideriv( (Prog)dx )


would be
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9453
414. Torito
2:25 PM GMT on November 19, 2013
Not much weather is going on in the US... I mean, there's some rain heading into Washington and Oregon, but that's about it.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.