Super Typhoon Haiyan's Intensification and Unusually Warm Sub-Surface Waters

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:25 PM GMT on November 13, 2013

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A remarkable warming of the sub-surface Pacific waters east of the Philippines in recent decades, due to a shift in atmospheric circulation patterns and ocean currents that began in the early 1990s, could be responsible for the rapid intensification of Super Typhoon Haiyan. Hurricanes are heat engines, which means they take heat energy out of the ocean, and convert it to kinetic energy in the form of wind. It's well-known that tropical cyclones need surface water temperatures of at least 26.5°C (80°F) to maintain themselves, and that the warmer the water, and the deeper the warm water is, the stronger the storm can get. Deep warm water is important, since as a tropical cyclone tracks over the ocean, it stirs up cooler water from the depths, potentially reducing the intensity of the storm. When both Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita exploded into Category 5 hurricanes as they crossed over a warm eddy in the Gulf of Mexico with a lot of deep, warm water, the concept of the total heat energy available to fuel a hurricane--the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP)--became one that gained wide recognition. The Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines has the largest area of deep, warm water of anywhere on Earth, and these waters have historically fueled the highest incidence of Category 5 storms of anywhere on the planet. Super Typhoon Haiyan tracked over surface waters that were of near-average warmth, 29.5 - 30.5°C (85 - 87°F.) However, the waters at a depth of 100 meters (328 feet) beneath Haiyan during its rapid intensification phase were a huge 3°C above average, according to Professor I-I Lin of the Department of Atmospheric Science at the National Taiwan University. An analysis by the Japan Meteorological Agency for October showed ocean temperatures 4 - 5°C (7 - 9°F) above average during October (Figure 1). This analysis was from a model. When looking at actual measurements made by the Argo float data in early November, the temperatures in the layer 100 meters below the surface under Haiyan were about 3°C above average, not 4 - 5°C, according to Dr. Lin. As the typhoon stirred this unusually warm water to the surface, the storm was likely able to feed off the heat, allowing Haiyan to intensify into one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever observed.


Figure 1. Modeled departure of temperature from average at a depth of 100 meters in the West Pacific Ocean during October 2013, compared to a 1986 - 2008 average. The track and intensity of Super Typhoon Haiyan are overlaid. Haiyan passed directly over large areas of sub-surface water that were much above average in temperature, which likely contributed to the storm's explosive deepening. While this model showed 4 - 5°C departures from average in October, the actual values were closer to 3°C in early November, according to Argo float data. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Why was there such unusually warm sub-surface water?
The sub-surface waters east of the Philippines have warmed dramatically over the past twenty years. According to Pun et al. (2013), "Recent increase in high tropical cyclone heat potential area in the Western North Pacific Ocean", the depth to where ocean temperatures of at least 26°C (79°F) penetrates has increased by 17% since the early 1990s, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential has increased by 13%. The warm-up is due to an increase in the surface winds blowing across the region--the trade winds--which have caused a southward migration and strengthening of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) and the North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC). The strong trade winds have pushed a large amount of water up against the east coast of the Philippines in the past twenty years, resulting in a rate of sea level rise of 10 mm per year--more than triple the global average of 3.1 mm/yr (Figure 2.) This extra sea level rise contributed to the storm surge damage from Super Typhoon Haiyan. Sea level rise data from Legaspi in the Eastern Philippines shows a rise of about 305 mm (12 inches) since 1949. For comparison, global average sea level rose 7.5" (190 mm) since 1901. Part of the rise along the eastern Philippine coast is from tectonic processes--the subsidence of the Philippine plate under the Eurasian plate--but most of it is due to the stronger trade winds piling up warm water along the coast, and the fact that warmer waters expand, raising sea level.


Figure 2. Trend in sea level from satellite altimeter measurements in 1993 - 2010. Black lines are the Sea Surface Height (SSH) in cm from Rio et al. (2009.) Image credit: Qiu, B., and S. Chen, 2012, "Multidecadal sea level and gyre circulation variability in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean", Journal of Physical Oceanography 42.1 (2012): 193-206.

Why have the trade winds sped up?
The surface trade winds in the equatorial Pacific are part of the Walker Circulation--a pattern of rising and sinking air along the Equator that the El Nino/La Nina cycle influences. A strong Walker circulation means there is lower pressure over Indonesia, which pulls in more air at the surface along the Equator from the east, increasing the easterly trade winds. As these trade winds strengthen, they pull surface ocean waters away from South America, allowing cold water to upwell to the surface. This is a La Niña-like situation, which takes heat energy out of the atmosphere, putting it into the ocean, keeping global surface temperatures cooler than they would otherwise be. A weakened Walker circulation is the reverse, resulting in weaker trade winds, and a more El Niño-like situation with higher global surface temperatures. As long as the stronger Walker circulation that has been in place since the early 1990s holds, global surface temperatures should stay cooler than they otherwise would be, prolonging the slow-down in global surface warming that has received much attention this year. There may also be a greater chance of super typhoons and higher storm surges affecting the Philippines, due to the warmer sub-surface waters and re-arranged ocean currents. A 2013 paper by L’Heureux et al. notes that the climate models predict that the Walker circulation should weaken (a more El Niño-like situation)--the reverse of what has been observed the past twenty years. The researchers took the observed pressure patterns over the Pacific in recent decades and removed the atmospheric response to the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The resulting pattern they found showed a steady strengthening of the Walker circulation, in concert with global rising temperatures. So, are we seeing a failure of the climate models? Or is the recent speed-up of the Walker circulation a decades-long temporary "speed bump" in the climate system? Time will tell. It is worth pointing out that a just-released paper by British and Canadian researchers shows that the global surface temperature rise of the past 15 years has been greatly underestimated. As discussed at realclimate.org, "The reason is the data gaps in the weather station network, especially in the Arctic. If you fill these data gaps using satellite measurements, the warming trend is more than doubled in the widely-used HadCRUT4 data, and the much-discussed “warming pause” has virtually disappeared."

I appeared on PBS Newshour last night to discuss the linkages between stronger tropical cyclones and climate change, video here.

References
L’Heureux, Michelle L., Sukyoung Lee, and Bradfield Lyon, 2013, "Recent multidecadal strengthening of the Walker circulation across the tropical Pacific", Nature Climate Change 3.6 (2013): 571-576.

Pun, Iam‐Fei, I‐I. Lin, and Min‐Hui Lo, 2013, "Recent increase in high tropical cyclone heat potential area in the Western North Pacific Ocean", Geophysical Research Letters (2013).

Qiu, B., and S. Chen, 2012, "Multidecadal sea level and gyre circulation variability in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean", Journal of Physical Oceanography 42.1 (2012): 193-206.

Jeff Masters

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1086. Astrometeor
3:34 AM GMT on December 09, 2013
Kevin, posting on an old blog will not help you find your answers. If you want some, I suggest you go and visit the below link. But, you better be ready, because CC/AGW deniers have a hard time finding subsistence there.

Dr. Rood's blog
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 95 Comments: 9826
1085. Kevin52
3:23 AM GMT on December 09, 2013
I noticed Dr. Masters and others avoid discussing the effect of the massive undersea quake that occurred a while back plus the huge volcanic eruption that happened in the Philippines about a decade ago. He and NBC, who own TWC, have been very busy trying to blame humans and especially the USA for all the ills of the world including weather and certainly do not want to blame nature in any way.

There is a lot of money to be made and people like Al Gore and others have made millions off from global warming, and now climate change claims. Global warming was impossible to prove, and then came the revelation of the emails that showed the hoax. So to make it much more difficult to argue against the hoax masters turned to climate change because after all, the climate is always changing. Of course little is reported when the change freezes over the Danube River for the first time in a quarter century or the canals of Venice freeze over as both did last year.

When I was growing up, on the first Earth Day "experts" claimed we were heading for another ice age and that the worldwide temps would drop by 11°F over the next century. That was in the early 70's. Today they now predict an 11° warm up -- were too lazy to even change the temp number. LOL

You have to congratulate them on turning to climate change so as to cover their tracks. This year was one of the coldest in my memory for Michigan yet we are hearing from "experts" that it was one of the warmest. We only had a few days over 90 yet supposedly are warming up dangerously. Guess they forgot to tell the all those beach goers how warm it was. Guess the freezing cold Great Lakes didn't get the memo either.
Member Since: May 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
1084. MarytheMet
9:22 PM GMT on November 26, 2013
And exactly where is that evidence of "bigger and stronger storms"?

This is yet another anecdotal case. But the trend in tropical storms remains flat, both in number and intensity. Same with other quantifiable measures of droughts and temp extremes and other "extreme weather"

WU and Dr. Jeff simply engage in advocacy, not science. If you wonder about this, then just count the tone of the headlines of what they post on climate change. What they ignore speaks volumes.

I'm an atmospheric scientist and a firm believer in greenhouse theory and climate change. But I'm appalled at the fear-mongering and one-sided presentation.
Member Since: August 5, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
1083. Andrebrooks
6:53 PM GMT on November 15, 2013

Too late for the low train no.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 29 Comments: 991
1082. cRRKampen
6:34 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1026. Chucktown:


Maybe you live in Amsterdam, that would expain a lot. Keep on tokin' those "funny" cigs.

Gouda, not too far from A'dam.
Anyway, I guess you understand it can be quite easy to predict climate fifty years or even a century onward.

So that actually happened with AGW. Over a century. Wow, those wizard scientists.
Could've learnt their magic at school you know.
Member Since: April 3, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 156
1081. cRRKampen
6:29 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1062. Xulonn:
I know that you are from the Netherlands (as were my grandparents), and I very much appreciate your posts. I see that you signed up to post about 1.5 years ago, but notice that you are participating more regularly these days, and welcome your perspective.

I post this not just for you, but by other frustrated commenters here.

Be careful with your retorts - climate denialists and trolls can be very annoying, especially when they will not engage in rational debates. Unfortunately, when we lash out at them due to exasperation and frustration, we are seen by the moderators as "attacking" other commenters or having "personal disputes."

Some commenters in their attempts to counter claptrap and b.s., often reply with strong sarcasm - usually well deserved. However, some of us occasionally cross the threshold of moderator tolerance with our comments and receive bans - a form of censorship that is not applied to lies, myths and propaganda posted about AGW/CC here.

So the moderators regularly delete posts and banning commenters for as little as an hour and up to 24 hours for any number of commenters if a big, serious dispute breaks out.

I am trying to compose my replies that are designed to counter the lies and misinformation about AGW/CC with reason - and avoid crossing the line into "attacks." And I am certainly trying to avoid back-and-forth exchanges, both one-on-one and between multiple commenters, that can be interpreted by the mods as "personal disputes."

David van Harn, a.k.a. Xulonn
Retiree in Boquete, Panama


Dank je :)

I've been doing debate with revisionists and naive deniers for eight years and during this year I have called it quits. This is no 'debate' at all, this is something else. There is a criminal mindset at the basis of climate revisionism that combines with a fundireligous, quite evil cult and then there are - of course - a lot of blinded followers happy to be blinded some more. For the latter analyse commenters on WUWT and realize that represents roughly a third of any electorate, any country's society.

Went to NIPCC symposium in The Hague, 3rd October, to look at the leaders themselves. To smell 'm, say. Singer, Carter. They KNOW AGW is true and they are lying about it. They are playing a gullible public, spreading an unbelievable arrogance, and particularly Bob Carter can't do it without a smirk on his face all the time. It was disgusting. Disgusting!

There is no reasoning with criminals or sects, or fascism.
Any attempt to do so legitimizes them.
Those who try to reason with the usual suspects like Watts, Carter, Tisdale, Curry et cetera effectively endorse them. That is my message now and I am very aware the good people will need some time to get used to it. It is painful, trust me I know that.
But they will - a Haiyan is the real argument, the most painful it is the tragedy.

Risking bans everywhere I take snipes on revisionists, even all those naive ones (because voting rights should come with a measure of responsibility, six grade level will do fine) and otherwise I follow and report on the hyperexponentially increasing AGW mayhem like reporting on a soccer match (though I cannot and will not hold this position suggesting enjoyment of amusement when truly innocent people get hit by a Haiyan. O yes, let this madness end now!).

I have no intention at all to convince people of AGW. I, and many others, have tried many different ways - from the scientific polite reasoning and education and documentaries like Al Gore's to activism like Mann's or brutal fighting with revisionists like occurs at Deltoid, and my conclusion is the people will only learn the message through confrontation, or as one 'dbstrom' over at Sou's declared: adaptation is powered by destruction (I would add the word 'solely').

I talk 'fascism', always risking editing or a ban, but I do it because I have some in-depth knowledge of that 'ideology' and use this for my conclusions about the war on science. Watts' obsession with the d-word really put me smack on that track.
But the quickest bans come from what immediately follows from 'adaptation is powered solely by destruction' that is when I hope for some more Sandy- or Aussie bush fire events, or for the floods of the millenium for Holland et cetera asap, because any confrontation now will likely be milder than the one in twenty years and confrontation on countries which can make a difference might save Bangladesh from an event drowning four million later.

Actually that is what the climate revisionists want. Abott wants Australia to burn out this summer, while he doesn't want the Aussies to know why that would happen. It is that or dementia and I don't buy the latter (though with Curry I've some doubts onceawhile).

/cRR
Member Since: April 3, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 156
1080. JohnLonergan
6:03 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1069. Xulonn:
Gosh darn, dang-nabbed AGW/CC must be messing with tropical weather patterns. I think the global warming alarmists are behind it - just to make the mets look bad. They're using millions of dollars from George Soros and Al Gore to manipulate weather with chemtrails, cloud seeding and HAARP. I think overfishing is part of it too! Without as many fish creating the ocean currents by wiggling their tails, things are all messed up.


Ahh!, I love the smell of snark for lunch.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3155
1079. Skyepony (Mod)
6:01 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
There's the one in TX. Probibly could pick it out on radar. They've evacuated the whole town..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
1078. Skyepony (Mod)
5:56 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Uptick in industrial explosions..

Tokyo Japan~ oil recycling plant.

India~ gas leak at a steel plant.

Explosion in USA on Friday, 15 November, 2013 at 04:17 (04:17 AM) UTC.
Description
A Chevron Corp pipeline exploded near a tiny Texas town south of Dallas on Thursday, shooting flames high in the air and prompting evacuations from nearby homes and a school district, but no injuries were reported, the company and emergency officials said The explosion south of Milford, Texas, was caused by a construction crew that accidentally drilled into a 10-inch liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) line, Tom Hemrick, director of Hill County Emergency Management, told KTVT-TV in Dallas. He said all workers were accounted for "The fire is definitely getting smaller," Hemrick said of the conflagration in an open field near Milford, a town of 700 people some 50 miles south of Dallas. Another 14-inch LPG line runs a few feet from the one that blew up and product was still flowing because stopping it would increase the risk of a secondary explosion, he said. "It is still flowing because the flow cools the line," he said. By mid-afternoon Chevron confirmed Hemrick's version of events, identifying the line as a Chevron-operated West Texas LPG system near Milford. Calling the explosion an "incident," the company said an excavation crew was working at the site when a rupture on the line was reported. Five workers were evacuated, and no one was hurt, Chevron said. "The flow of product in the pipeline has been shut off and residual burn continues," the company said. Chevron was monitoring the adjacent LPG line. A state regulator said the line was part of the West Texas LPG Pipeline Limited Partnership, a 2,295-mile common-carrier pipeline system that transports natural gas liquids from New Mexico and Texas to Mont Belvieu, Texas, for processing. Chevron owns 80 percent of the pipeline system and Atlas Pipeline Partners has a 20 percent stake. Milford's volunteer fire chief, Mark Jackson, told Dallas' WFAA-TV that about 200 students in the town's school district were evacuated, and officials closed off numerous roads around the fire. A local CBS-TV affiliate broadcast footage of big flames rising from a field and engulfing what appeared to be a drilling rig or other large piece of equipment. Several nearby pickup trucks were burned.

Explosion in USA on Friday, 15 November, 2013 at 04:15 (04:15 AM) UTC.
Description
Detroit officials evacuated an elementary school and other buildings within a one-block radius of a chemical plant that erupted in flames on Thursday. The blaze erupted at the Chemical Technology Inc on the city's east side, said Detroit Fire Lt. Theresa Halsell. She did not know how many people were affected by the evacuation nor did she know of any injuries. GEE White Academy, an elementary school, was evacuated at about 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) at the advice of the police, according to Basel Al-Jabari, business manager for the school. The school has 447 students and 42 staff members. He said there were no injuries. Video footage of the fire on local media shows a large plume of black smoke coming from the plant. Chemical Technology makes adhesives, coatings, paints and cleaners, according to its website. The phone did not ring at the company.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
1077. cRRKampen
5:48 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1076. georgevandenberghe:


Old fashioned forecasters didn't even try to forecast a week out. Nature keeps showing us why it still isn't a good idea.


Seems senseless to evacuate before a Sandy or a Haiyan, of course, because you never really can know they're coming until they're on you. Tsk tsk.
Member Since: April 3, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 156
1076. georgevandenberghe
5:35 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1075. hydrus:
And this is why I like forecasting the old fashion way.:)


Old fashioned forecasters didn't even try to forecast a week out. Nature keeps showing us why it still isn't a good idea.

Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 17 Comments: 1625
1075. hydrus
5:26 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1073. TropicalAnalystwx13:

All the meteorologists at TWC noted it as a possibility and nothing more. When it became apparent that the ECMWF's solution wasn't going to pan out, they began noting the prospects of snow were decreasing.
And this is why I like forecasting the old fashion way.:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20506
1074. hydrus
5:24 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Way out but interesting.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20506
1073. TropicalAnalystwx13
5:12 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1068. Sfloridacat5:


Like the predicted East Coast snow storm that never happened. Even TWC meteorologist kept showing the models and saying it was going to snow in MD and VA the following week.
Everyone got excited and it ended up being a bust.

All the meteorologists at TWC noted it as a possibility and nothing more. When it became apparent that the ECMWF's solution wasn't going to pan out, they began noting the prospects of snow were decreasing.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
1072. Sfloridacat5
5:11 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1047. KDDFlorida:

Actually, we need it. Bring it on!


A lot of people don't realize how dry most of Florida is from Oct - May.
It brings on the fire season that can really get going towards Spring time.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6092
1071. AGWcreationists
5:11 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1031. Xulonn:
Not at all. The two hairs were always discrete - no splitting involved.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The old AGW two-step. Sell a severe weather event as proof that political action has to be taken to combat CO2 emissions, while innocently saying that such statements are not concrete claims that climate change was the leading factor for the weather event in question. Quite disingenuous. And it makes debate over such claims akin to trying to nail Jell-O to a tree, and that is probably the entire point.
Member Since: November 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 489
1070. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
5:10 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1069. Xulonn
5:07 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1004. Sfloridacat5:


The "experts" have done a terrible job of predicting hurricanes over the past few years.

Can't wait until the predictions for 2014 come out. Then we can assume the opposite will happen.

Gosh darn, dang-nabbed AGW/CC must be messing with tropical weather patterns. I think the global warming alarmists are behind it - just to make the mets look bad. They're using millions of dollars from George Soros and Al Gore to manipulate weather with chemtrails, cloud seeding and HAARP. I think overfishing is part of it too! Without as many fish creating the ocean currents by wiggling their tails, things are all messed up.
Member Since: June 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1416
1068. Sfloridacat5
5:07 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1056. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the key to model watching is seeing if dipictions move up in time with each new run that comes out if its not consistent then its likely not to happen


Like the predicted East Coast snow storm that never happened. Even TWC meteorologist kept showing the models and saying it was going to snow in MD and VA the following week.
Everyone got excited and it ended up being a bust.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6092
1067. Dakster
5:06 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1064. ARiot:


I don't know what you're reading, but some recent papers pose the hypothesis that if anthropogenic forcing continues and CO2 stays above 290/300 ppm then the processes we think should cause an ice age won't be able to do so.

However it is far more complex than what you or I can summarize.

Generally though, one should not speak of "crops" and "a thousand feet of ice" (as in a glacial period) in the same example.

One is a seasonal thing.

The other is approaching geologic time.

And unless I'm missing something, our species wasn't "farming crops" during the last glacial.

AGW forcing is a few hundred year threat, or sooner.

Glaciers are a tens of thousands of years threat.

The two probably don't concern each other on any time scale we can relate to.


I agree on the time frame and analogy. Two points though, how would you feel if we could do something to stop it and didn't.

Second, what is the harm in creating a better/cleaner world, even if it was for nothing?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
1066. Dakster
5:03 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Can't help you there. Hopefully it holds out.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
1065. FunnelVortex
5:00 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1060. Dakster:


Wouldn't worry about it. Driving you may want to make alternate routes so you can avoid the weather. And we are in the time of the year that bad weather rarely sticks around for long.


Okay. But my main concern now is hoping for the snow to hold off until I get back. I dont want to miss it.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
1064. ARiot
5:00 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 989. LargoFl:
so IF what I am reading is confirmed,the current global warming if any,would slow down a return to a glacial period,yes oceans may indeed rise some,yes storms May become more severe,but in the long term, its a good thing for humanity as a whole..you cant grow crops under a thousand feet of ice.


I don't know what you're reading, but some recent papers pose the hypothesis that if anthropogenic forcing continues and CO2 stays above 290/300 ppm then the processes we think should cause an ice age won't be able to do so.

However it is far more complex than what you or I can summarize.

Generally though, one should not speak of "crops" and "a thousand feet of ice" (as in a glacial period) in the same example.

One is a seasonal thing.

The other is approaching geologic time.

And unless I'm missing something, our species wasn't "farming crops" during the last glacial.

AGW forcing is a few hundred year threat, or sooner.

Glaciers are a tens of thousands of years threat.

The two probably don't concern each other on any time scale we can relate to.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 366
1063. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:58 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
gfs 240 lala hrs out

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1062. Xulonn
4:58 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 986. cRRKampen:

So that's what you do when you receive a well worked explanation for a phenomenon. You troll.
You are a climate revisionist. Do you get paid? No? A stupid one at that, then.
I know that you are from the Netherlands (as were my grandparents), and I very much appreciate your posts. I see that you signed up to post about 1.5 years ago, but notice that you are participating more regularly these days, and welcome your perspective.

I post this not just for you, but by other frustrated commenters here.

Be careful with your retorts - climate denialists and trolls can be very annoying, especially when they will not engage in rational debates. Unfortunately, when we lash out at them due to exasperation and frustration, we are seen by the moderators as "attacking" other commenters or having "personal disputes."

Some commenters in their attempts to counter claptrap and b.s., often reply with strong sarcasm - usually well deserved. However, some of us occasionally cross the threshold of moderator tolerance with our comments and receive bans - a form of censorship that is not applied to lies, myths and propaganda posted about AGW/CC here.

So the moderators regularly delete posts and banning commenters for as little as an hour and up to 24 hours for any number of commenters if a big, serious dispute breaks out.

I am trying to compose my replies that are designed to counter the lies and misinformation about AGW/CC with reason - and avoid crossing the line into "attacks." And I am certainly trying to avoid back-and-forth exchanges, both one-on-one and between multiple commenters, that can be interpreted by the mods as "personal disputes."

David van Harn, a.k.a. Xulonn
Retiree in Boquete, Panama
Member Since: June 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1416
1061. GeorgiaStormz
4:58 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Hi snowcover

now



Fantasy Land (Valid for the trend in increasE)




It was all clean during summer so its coming back.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
1060. Dakster
4:57 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1059. FunnelVortex:


Flying.


Wouldn't worry about it. Driving you may want to make alternate routes so you can avoid the weather. And we are in the time of the year that bad weather rarely sticks around for long.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
1059. FunnelVortex
4:55 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1058. Dakster:


I think it just means to keep an eye on it. Are you driving or flying?


Flying.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
1058. Dakster
4:55 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1055. FunnelVortex:


Im going to Florida from that saturday until Black Friday. What would that mean for travel?

Plus I hope the first snow holds back until I return home.


I think it just means to keep an eye on it. Are you driving or flying?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
1057. Skyepony (Mod)
4:55 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Flash Flood in Philippines on Friday, 15 November, 2013 at 14:34 (02:34 PM) UTC.
Description
A flood inundated several residential areas and killed two inhabitants of Tangerang City, Banten Province, on Thursday. The victims were identified as Ratna, 63, and Sukamto, 61, chairman of the disaster alert youth group (Tagana), Iksan Bhakti, said here on Friday. Ratna died of a heart attack while being evacuated from her flooded home at Ciledug Indah 1 residential complex. Sukamto slipped to his death while cleaning his house after the flooding. Incessant heavy rains have caused floods at Ciledug Indah 1 and 2, Pedurenan, Petir, Gondrong and Pondok Bahar in Tangerang on Thursday. The monsoon season is currently underway in Indonesia. It typically triggers floods in several provinces, including West Papua, West Sumatra, Maluku, West Kalimantan, Jakarta and North Sumatra. In Jakarta, an official from the Social Affairs Ministry has urged a voluntary group called "Disaster Alert Kampongs" (KSB) operating in the capital city to be ready for floods during the current monsoon season. "We hope that the KSB, the disaster alert youth (Tagana) and the community are ready," the Ministrys Director for Social Protection for Natural Disaster Victims, Margo Wiyono, said on Friday. The Social Affairs Ministry is also prepared to provide logistical support for refugees if required. Over the past week, a number of areas in Jakarta have been flooded because of heavy rains. On Wednesday, the rains flooded 34 locations in the capital city. The Jakarta Natural Disaster Mitigation Agency (BPBD) has mapped 62 areas that are prone to flooding in Jakartas five municipalities. In Central Jakarta, nine areas are prone to floods; in North Jakarta, 19; in West Jakarta, 17, in South Jakarta, 12; and in East Jakarta, eight such areas have been identified. "We hope the community is better prepared this year because the BPBD and the meteorological, climatology and geophysics agency (BMKG) have issued warnings earlier," he added. KSB groups have been created in the five municipalities of the capital city to help residents in case of disasters resulting from the floods.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
1056. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:51 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
the key to model watching is seeing if dipictions move up in time with each new run that comes out if its not consistent then its likely not to happen
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1055. FunnelVortex
4:50 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1052. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
by 192 now shows severe but it will change



Im going to Florida from that saturday until Black Friday. What would that mean for travel?

Plus I hope the first snow holds back until I return home.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
1054. Dakster
4:50 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1049. FunnelVortex:


Yeah, true. Unlike most people I don't like having several sunny days on end.


Me either... HOWEVER, non-stop pouring rain that causes flooding isn't high on my list either. And we didn't have that this year by me.
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1053. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:49 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1051. eddye:
keeper of the gate u agree about accu weather
no that's lala land

even at 192 its lala land but fun too look at see what happens
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1052. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:47 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
by 192 now shows severe but it will change

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1051. eddye
4:47 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
keeper of the gate u agree about accu weather
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1050. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:45 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1042. Doppler22:

I saw flurries this past Tues, so that made me happy :p Wouldn't mind seeing them again. I would like snow but I don't expect snow until DEC or JAN
we should rtn back to chance of flurries tue and wed of next week till the start of the next rtn flow
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1049. FunnelVortex
4:43 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1045. Dakster:


FWIW, I'd rather be wet than dry.


Yeah, true. Unlike most people I don't like having several sunny days on end.
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1048. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:42 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1047. KDDFlorida
4:42 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1021. FunnelVortex:


And we know how much Floridians hate rain...

Actually, we need it. Bring it on!
Member Since: March 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 26
1046. eddye
4:41 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
keeper of the gate that why i dont go out 2 accuweather because on day 30 when i go 2 orlando dec 20 it shows high of 77 i thought it would be much colder
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
1045. Dakster
4:40 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1044. FunnelVortex:


I love rain too, especially strong/severe storms.

But it seems like I kept seeing Floridians whine about having so much rain during the wet season this year.


FWIW, I'd rather be wet than dry.
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1044. FunnelVortex
4:38 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1036. flsky:

I love the rain - who you been talking to. Especially with ourgreat thunder and lightning!


I love rain too, especially strong/severe storms.

But it seems like I kept seeing Floridians whine about having so much rain during the wet season this year.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
1043. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:38 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1041. eddye:
keeper of the gate that not cold i thought their was suppose 2 be a strong front coming through
maybe the next one still early for strong cold to get into fla maybe by first week of dec you will see some
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1042. Doppler22
4:37 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1034. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
back to freezing again next wed wash maybe another chance for snow for ya


I saw flurries this past Tues, so that made me happy :p Wouldn't mind seeing them again. I would like snow but I don't expect snow until DEC or JAN
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1041. eddye
4:36 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
keeper of the gate that not cold i thought their was suppose 2 be a strong front coming through
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1040. CybrTeddy
4:35 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1004. Sfloridacat5:


The "experts" have done a terrible job of predicting hurricanes over the past few years.

Can't wait until the predictions for 2014 come out. Then we can assume the opposite will happen.



If you mean predicting seasonal totals, then you're only partially correct. 2013, 2012, 2006, 2005, and 2004 were total forecasting busts. Who could have possibly predicted those seasons though? I'd love for you to do better.

If you mean predicting tropical cyclones at the NHC, then you're not only wrong, then you're being unfair to the great job they've done at forecasting and saving lives in both the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. Just look at how the NHC does compared to what PAGASA did with Haiyan? Or IMD with all the major storms they experience?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23571
1039. washingtonian115
4:35 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1034. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
back to freezing again next wed wash maybe another chance for snow for ya

But the question is will moisture be in the vicinity?.Usually the way the winters have been working for the past three years is that the moisture will come only when its warm but when the cold comes its dry.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
1038. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:34 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1037. eddye:
keeper of the gate wat about fla
for next wed
here it is lowest temp for ya next week
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1037. eddye
4:32 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
keeper of the gate wat about fla
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1036. flsky
4:31 PM GMT on November 15, 2013
Quoting 1021. FunnelVortex:


And we know how much Floridians hate rain...

I love the rain - who you been talking to. Especially with ourgreat thunder and lightning!
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1912

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.