Super Typhoon Haiyan's Intensification and Unusually Warm Sub-Surface Waters

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:25 PM GMT on November 13, 2013

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A remarkable warming of the sub-surface Pacific waters east of the Philippines in recent decades, due to a shift in atmospheric circulation patterns and ocean currents that began in the early 1990s, could be responsible for the rapid intensification of Super Typhoon Haiyan. Hurricanes are heat engines, which means they take heat energy out of the ocean, and convert it to kinetic energy in the form of wind. It's well-known that tropical cyclones need surface water temperatures of at least 26.5°C (80°F) to maintain themselves, and that the warmer the water, and the deeper the warm water is, the stronger the storm can get. Deep warm water is important, since as a tropical cyclone tracks over the ocean, it stirs up cooler water from the depths, potentially reducing the intensity of the storm. When both Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita exploded into Category 5 hurricanes as they crossed over a warm eddy in the Gulf of Mexico with a lot of deep, warm water, the concept of the total heat energy available to fuel a hurricane--the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP)--became one that gained wide recognition. The Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines has the largest area of deep, warm water of anywhere on Earth, and these waters have historically fueled the highest incidence of Category 5 storms of anywhere on the planet. Super Typhoon Haiyan tracked over surface waters that were of near-average warmth, 29.5 - 30.5°C (85 - 87°F.) However, the waters at a depth of 100 meters (328 feet) beneath Haiyan during its rapid intensification phase were a huge 3°C above average, according to Professor I-I Lin of the Department of Atmospheric Science at the National Taiwan University. An analysis by the Japan Meteorological Agency for October showed ocean temperatures 4 - 5°C (7 - 9°F) above average during October (Figure 1). This analysis was from a model. When looking at actual measurements made by the Argo float data in early November, the temperatures in the layer 100 meters below the surface under Haiyan were about 3°C above average, not 4 - 5°C, according to Dr. Lin. As the typhoon stirred this unusually warm water to the surface, the storm was likely able to feed off the heat, allowing Haiyan to intensify into one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever observed.


Figure 1. Modeled departure of temperature from average at a depth of 100 meters in the West Pacific Ocean during October 2013, compared to a 1986 - 2008 average. The track and intensity of Super Typhoon Haiyan are overlaid. Haiyan passed directly over large areas of sub-surface water that were much above average in temperature, which likely contributed to the storm's explosive deepening. While this model showed 4 - 5°C departures from average in October, the actual values were closer to 3°C in early November, according to Argo float data. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Why was there such unusually warm sub-surface water?
The sub-surface waters east of the Philippines have warmed dramatically over the past twenty years. According to Pun et al. (2013), "Recent increase in high tropical cyclone heat potential area in the Western North Pacific Ocean", the depth to where ocean temperatures of at least 26°C (79°F) penetrates has increased by 17% since the early 1990s, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential has increased by 13%. The warm-up is due to an increase in the surface winds blowing across the region--the trade winds--which have caused a southward migration and strengthening of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) and the North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC). The strong trade winds have pushed a large amount of water up against the east coast of the Philippines in the past twenty years, resulting in a rate of sea level rise of 10 mm per year--more than triple the global average of 3.1 mm/yr (Figure 2.) This extra sea level rise contributed to the storm surge damage from Super Typhoon Haiyan. Sea level rise data from Legaspi in the Eastern Philippines shows a rise of about 305 mm (12 inches) since 1949. For comparison, global average sea level rose 7.5" (190 mm) since 1901. Part of the rise along the eastern Philippine coast is from tectonic processes--the subsidence of the Philippine plate under the Eurasian plate--but most of it is due to the stronger trade winds piling up warm water along the coast, and the fact that warmer waters expand, raising sea level.


Figure 2. Trend in sea level from satellite altimeter measurements in 1993 - 2010. Black lines are the Sea Surface Height (SSH) in cm from Rio et al. (2009.) Image credit: Qiu, B., and S. Chen, 2012, "Multidecadal sea level and gyre circulation variability in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean", Journal of Physical Oceanography 42.1 (2012): 193-206.

Why have the trade winds sped up?
The surface trade winds in the equatorial Pacific are part of the Walker Circulation--a pattern of rising and sinking air along the Equator that the El Nino/La Nina cycle influences. A strong Walker circulation means there is lower pressure over Indonesia, which pulls in more air at the surface along the Equator from the east, increasing the easterly trade winds. As these trade winds strengthen, they pull surface ocean waters away from South America, allowing cold water to upwell to the surface. This is a La Niña-like situation, which takes heat energy out of the atmosphere, putting it into the ocean, keeping global surface temperatures cooler than they would otherwise be. A weakened Walker circulation is the reverse, resulting in weaker trade winds, and a more El Niño-like situation with higher global surface temperatures. As long as the stronger Walker circulation that has been in place since the early 1990s holds, global surface temperatures should stay cooler than they otherwise would be, prolonging the slow-down in global surface warming that has received much attention this year. There may also be a greater chance of super typhoons and higher storm surges affecting the Philippines, due to the warmer sub-surface waters and re-arranged ocean currents. A 2013 paper by L’Heureux et al. notes that the climate models predict that the Walker circulation should weaken (a more El Niño-like situation)--the reverse of what has been observed the past twenty years. The researchers took the observed pressure patterns over the Pacific in recent decades and removed the atmospheric response to the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The resulting pattern they found showed a steady strengthening of the Walker circulation, in concert with global rising temperatures. So, are we seeing a failure of the climate models? Or is the recent speed-up of the Walker circulation a decades-long temporary "speed bump" in the climate system? Time will tell. It is worth pointing out that a just-released paper by British and Canadian researchers shows that the global surface temperature rise of the past 15 years has been greatly underestimated. As discussed at realclimate.org, "The reason is the data gaps in the weather station network, especially in the Arctic. If you fill these data gaps using satellite measurements, the warming trend is more than doubled in the widely-used HadCRUT4 data, and the much-discussed “warming pause” has virtually disappeared."

I appeared on PBS Newshour last night to discuss the linkages between stronger tropical cyclones and climate change, video here.

References
L’Heureux, Michelle L., Sukyoung Lee, and Bradfield Lyon, 2013, "Recent multidecadal strengthening of the Walker circulation across the tropical Pacific", Nature Climate Change 3.6 (2013): 571-576.

Pun, Iam‐Fei, I‐I. Lin, and Min‐Hui Lo, 2013, "Recent increase in high tropical cyclone heat potential area in the Western North Pacific Ocean", Geophysical Research Letters (2013).

Qiu, B., and S. Chen, 2012, "Multidecadal sea level and gyre circulation variability in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean", Journal of Physical Oceanography 42.1 (2012): 193-206.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 683. Articuno:

Congrats :)
Thank you Art.It's been a long time coming...
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Quoting 667. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I have an off-topic question for those who are good with math. Took a test for pre-calculus today, had this problem:

Solve: e^x e^-x=2

I got no solution. My teacher said that wasn't right. How?!

I'm in 9th and I'm only in Geometry, shouldn't even be in geometry because I got C's all year long in the class last year.
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Quoting 679. PalmBeachWeather:
4 more working days and I'm retired... Will be going to Naples , Fl to visit all my relatives... Maybe, Just maybe, I will run into Nea...
alrightttt...I did it 2 years ago early..you'll Love It....congrats.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
Quoting 679. PalmBeachWeather:
4 more working days and I'm retired... Will be going to Naples , Fl to visit all my relatives... Maybe, Just maybe, I will run into Nea...

Congrats :)
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Quoting 651. indianrivguy:


Exactly, by getting someone else to have the pipeline.. they can't get it in their own country, so they are trying to buy their way across our country..

Canadian Bacon I say!
EH!
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Quoting 679. PalmBeachWeather:
4 more working days and I'm retired... Will be going to Naples , Fl to visit all my relatives... Maybe, Just maybe, I will run into Nea...


Congrats on retirement!!!

Don't hurt Nea when you run into him/her.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10266
Quoting 674. StormTrackerScott:


e^(x) + e^(-x) = 2

Multiply everything by e^x

e^(2x) + 1 = 2e^(x)
e^(2x) - 2e^(x) + 1 = 0
(e^x - 1)² = 0

Therefore, we have that:

e^x - 1 = 0
e^x = 1
ln(e^x) = ln(1)
x = 0

Hope this helps!

Even though I never would've figured that out, I knew I should've put 0! Lol, thanks.
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4 more working days and I'm retired... Will be going to Naples , Fl to visit all my relatives... Maybe, Just maybe, I will run into Nea...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 675. Neapolitan:
There are reports today that people vacating Tacloban--by foot, mostly--are covering their noses and mouths out of necessity to protect them from the stench of uncountable numbers of the dead lying among the ruins of their city. It's pretty clear, then, that despite the Philippine governor's assertion that there are no more than a few hundred more missing people unaccounted for, a final tally of the deceased that's even close to accurate is still a long ways off...


I saw a pic of mass graves being dug on TWC. Death Toll likely over 10,000 as many people have still not been accounted for.

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Quoting 675. Neapolitan:
There are reports today that people vacating Tacloban--by foot, mostly--are covering their noses and mouths out of necessity to protect them from the stench of uncountable numbers of the dead lying among the ruins of their city. It's pretty clear, then, that despite the Philippine governor's assertion that there are no more than a few hundred more missing people unaccounted for, a final tally of the deceased that's even close to accurate is still a long ways off...


We know a government would never lie about a think like that.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10266
1935 eye witness....................9:20 p.m.---Barometer 27.22 inches; wind abated. We now heard other noises than the wind and knew center of storm was over us. We now head for the last and only cottage that I think can or will stand the blow due to arrive shortly. All hands, 20 in number, gather in this cottage. During this lull the sky is clear to northward, stars shining brightly and a very light breeze continued; no flat calm. About the middle of the lull, which lasted a timed 55 minutes, the sea began to lift up, it seemed, and rise very fast; this from ocean side of camp. I put my flashlight out on sea and could see walls of water which seemed many feet high. I had to race fast to regain entrance of cottage, but water caught me waist deep, although writer was only about 60 feet from doorway of cottage. Water lifted cottage from its foundations, and it floated.
10:10 p.m.---Barometer now 27.02 inches; wind beginning to blow from SSW.
10:15 p.m.--The first blast from SSW., full force. House now breaking up---wind seemed stronger than any time during the storm. I glanced at the barometer which read 26.98 inches, dropped it in water and was blown outside into sea; got hung up in broken fronds of coconut tree and hung on for dear life. I was then struck by some object and knocked unconscious.

•September 3:
2:25 p.m.---I became conscious in tree and found I was lodged about 20 feet above ground. All water had disappeared from island; the cottage had been blown back on the island, from whence the sea receded and left it with all people safe.
Hurricane winds continued till 5 a.m. and during this period terrific lightning flashes were seen. After 5 a.m. strong gales continued throughout the day with very heavy rain.

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
There are reports today that people vacating Tacloban--by foot, mostly--are covering their noses and mouths out of necessity to protect them from the stench of uncountable numbers of the dead lying among the ruins of their city. It's pretty clear, then, that despite the Philippine governor's assertion that there are no more than a few hundred more missing people unaccounted for, a final tally of the deceased that's even close to accurate is still a long ways off...
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Quoting 667. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I have an off-topic question for those who are good with math. Took a test for pre-calculus today, had this problem:

Solve: e^x+e^-x=2

I got no solution. My teacher said that wasn't right. How?!


e^(x) + e^(-x) = 2

Multiply everything by e^x

e^(2x) + 1 = 2e^(x)
e^(2x) - 2e^(x) + 1 = 0
(e^x - 1)² = 0

Therefore, we have that:

e^x - 1 = 0
e^x = 1
ln(e^x) = ln(1)
x = 0

Hope this helps!
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Quoting 669. indianrivguy:


snort...


Changes in latitudes, changes in attitudes.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10266
Quoting 653. PalmBeachWeather:
Never did care too much for Buffet... Hate the song "Margaritaville"

I claim there's a woman to blame for the hatred of this good of a song. :P
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Quoting 663. Ameister12:

That is very sad. I always wanted to visit Wilmington and check out the NWS office, but I didn't realize the town had been declining over the last couple years.
Rachel Ray...Whether you like her or not...Did a great benefit for the town of Wilmington.... Everyone was so happy that she spent time to make a little difference.
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Quoting 653. PalmBeachWeather:
Never did care too much for Buffet... Hate the song "Margaritaville"


snort...
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Lots of moisture gathering in the Gulf & Caribbean and all seem to be converging on FL.

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I have an off-topic question for those who are good with math. Took a test for pre-calculus today, had this problem:

Solve: e^x+e^-x=2

I got no solution. My teacher said that wasn't right. How?!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ahh, folks, this about Guiuan in the landfall area. Looks like this major knew how to speak to the people in order to convince them to evacuate [huhh, and this is post 666, matching "Armaggedon", see below]:

How One Philippine Town Avoided Calamity
In Storm-Hit Town, Mayor Pushed Residents to Flee to Safety

WSJ, by Paul Baylis And Te-Ping Chen, Updated Nov. 14, 2013 1:59 p.m. ET

Extract:
... And yet Guiuan, which is situated on the southeastern tip of Samar Island, where Typhoon Haiyan made landfall a week ago, has in some ways been lucky.

"I can't explain it," said U.S. Navy Capt. Russell Hays, a medical officer who arrived recently. It surprises me because of the ferocity of the storm. Given the devastation, I would have anticipated a fatality rate approaching 10%."

As the Philippines starts to dig out from the devastation wrought by Haiyan, a process that aid agencies say will take years, many of this town's residents are homeless, but most are alive%u2014thanks largely to the mayor who bullied them to survival.

In a town of 45,000 people, 87 died. Town figures show 23 missing and 931 injured. The official death toll for the country rose Thursday to 2,357 people. More than 800,000 were displaced.

Christopher Gonzalez, 33 years old, was unbending in getting people, blas[e] about big storms, to evacuation shelters as rains and howling winds from Haiyan pummeled the coastline at this end-of-the-earth place. The evacuation centers dot the town and include the public gym, churches and schools - buildings constructed of concrete rather than the flimsier cinder blocks and wood of most homes.

"I forced the people to evacuate because this time was different," Mr. Gonzalez said in an interview in the heavily damaged town hall. "It's very hard to convince people to evacuate, because they are used to typhoons here."

The mayor and other town officials said that Haiyan, which was one of the strongest storms to make landfall anywhere on record, wasn't just a normal typhoon but a "delubyo," a local word that approximately means "armageddon."

Even some of the town's strongest buildings weren't able to withstand the force of the typhoon, known in the Philippines as Yolanda. Most of those who died were crushed when some centers, like the gym, collapsed. The force of the storm was so strong that the mayor's car was lifted off the ground and slammed into a wall of a nearby building. ...


Whole article see link above.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 54 Comments: 5930
THE MOST INTENSE HURRICANE TO EVER HIT THE USA..........CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1937...THE LABOR DAY
HURRICANE OF 1935 MONUMENT WAS DEDICATED IN ISLAMORADA. THIS
HURRICANE IS THE MOST INTENSE HURRICANE TO EVER STRIKE THE UNITED
STATES (SINCE 1851). THE LABOR DAY HURRICANE OF 1935 MADE LANDFALL
NEAR LOWER MATECUMBE KEY AT AROUND 1000 PM ON SEPTEMBER 2ND OF 1935.
THIS HURRICANE INTENSIFIED FROM A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE TO A CATEGORY
5 HURRICANE IN LESS THAN 36 HOURS BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS. ONLY TWO OTHER HURRICANES HAVE STRUCK THE UNITED
STATES WITH WINDS OF CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...HURRICANE CAMILLE IN 1969
AND HURRICANE ANDREW IN 1992. THE LABOR DAY HURRICANE OF 1935 IS THE
ONLY KNOWN HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES WITH A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BELOW 900 MILLIBARS. THE COMBINATION OF
WIND AND STORM TIDE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR NEAR COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF
A 30-MILE WIDE SWATH FROM TAVERNIER TO VACA KEY.
&&
..............Question...did the recent pacific hurricane/storm have MB less than 900mb at any time?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
could be some Heavy rain south of Tampa this weekend..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
Quoting 657. PalmBeachWeather:
Ame....Grew up very near Wilmington...A big company ruined that lovely midwest town when they left...Much of Wilmington's population were out of a job....Such a sad story for a beautiful little town.

That is very sad. I always wanted to visit Wilmington and check out the NWS office, but I didn't realize the town had been declining over the last couple years.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4975
Patience... We sure are to get many blizzards and snowstorms in Jan, Feb
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Hopefully we will get a good soaking rain from this Low..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
I was just going to put up that story tropicalanalyst.

Typhoon Haiyan: UN dramatically raises death toll to more than 4,400
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659. CJ5
Quoting 651. indianrivguy:


Exactly, by getting someone else to have the pipeline.. they can't get it in their own country, so they are trying to buy their way across our country..

Canadian Bacon I say!


Not exactly. Your premise was they are doing because it is unsafe. They are doing it because they don't need it and cannot use it in their country. They have no use or capacity for raw crude outside what they already have.
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Quoting 656. TropicalAnalystwx13:
With Haiyan's death toll now at 4,460, it is quickly closing in at Thelma's record as the deadliest Philippine tropical cyclone on record. Thelma killed anywhere from 5,081 to 8,165 people despite only being a 45 mph tropical storm.
wx13.......Sad to say, but the totals will grow and grow
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Quoting 648. Ameister12:
Hopefully the NWS in Wilmington, OH mentions the potential severe weather outbreak in a Hazardous Weather Outlook later tonight, or tomorrow. Right now the forecast for my area only mentions a 70% chance of showers, and a possible thunderstorm on Sunday. Nothing that would suggest anything significant.
Ame....Grew up very near Wilmington...A big company ruined that lovely midwest town when they left...Much of Wilmington's population were out of a job....Such a sad story for a beautiful little town.
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With Haiyan's death toll now at 4,460, it is quickly closing in on Thelma's record as the deadliest Philippine tropical cyclone on record. Thelma killed anywhere from 5,081 to 8,165 people despite only being a 45 mph tropical storm.
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Quoting 648. Ameister12:
Hopefully the NWS in Wilmington, OH mentions the potential severe weather outbreak in a Hazardous Weather Outlook later tonight, or tomorrow. Right now the forecast for my area only mentions a 70% chance of showers, and a possible thunderstorm on Sunday. Nothing that would suggest anything significant.
The models are not grasping this next system to well. If anything, at least by Saturday we will know what the system has to work with.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21173
According to TWC, Haiyan's death toll has doubled.

TACLOBAN, Philippines -- The air was thick with the stench of decay as sweating workers lowered the plastic coffins one by one into a grave the size of an Olympic swimming pool.

Scores of unidentified bodies were interred together Thursday in a hillside cemetery without any ritual — the first mass burial in this city shattered by last week's Typhoon Haiyan.

Six days after the disaster, some progress was being made in providing food, water and medical aid to the half-million people displaced in the Philippines. Massive bottlenecks blocking the distribution of international assistance have begun to clear.

Quoting a government agency, the United Nations said the death toll has risen to 4,460. After the report was released, a discrepancy arose stating the number of 4,460 was actually the current total of evacuation centers open, not the death toll, but The Weather Channel independently confirmed 4,460 deaths have been confirmed in the storm's aftermath.

That figure is still expected to rise, perhaps significantly, when information is collected from other areas of the disaster zone.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4975
Quoting 633. yoboi:



Many ask why Mr Buffet bought the rail company in that area......
Never did care too much for Buffet... Hate the song "Margaritaville"
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Tropical cyclone batters Somalia

BBC weather video, 14 November 2013 Last updated at 16:41
Only five cyclones have hit Somalia since records began in 1966. However, two of these storms have been in the past year, with devastating results.
BBC Weather's Helen Willetts reports on the storm and has a look at the forecast for the Horn of Africa and South China Sea.

Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 54 Comments: 5930
Quoting 618. CJ5:


The Canadian's don't want what? A pipeline? Oil? That is Poppycock. The Canadians are doing everything they can to sell oil. They are spending money to convince us to buy bit and pipe it because they need the revenue. It has nothing to do with it being unsafe. Oil exports are down in Canada because of access to markets other than the US and down to the US because of an increase in US production. The Canadians are trying to open markets in China to sell. Several Provinces are looking at massive tax increases because of the loss of billions in revenue due to their declining market.


As far as the original post. It seems to have been a gas pipeline and from the picture it appears to be a well fire/mishap. It is not like those things don't happen on occasion.


Exactly, by getting someone else to have the pipeline.. they can't get it in their own country, so they are trying to buy their way across our country..

Canadian Bacon I say!
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NASA-USGS Landsat Data Yield Best View to Date of Global Forest Losses, Gains

Nov. 14, 2013

The ravages of deforestation, wildfires, windstorms and insects on global forests during this century are revealed in unprecedented detail in a new study based on data from the NASA-U.S. Geological Survey Landsat 7 satellite.
The maps resulting from the study are the first to document forest loss and gain using a consistent method around the globe, at high resolution. They allow scientists to compare forest changes in different countries and monitor annual deforestation. With each pixel in a Landsat image showing an area about the size of a baseball diamond, researchers see enough detail to tell local, regional and global stories.
“Now, we have 12 years of annual forest loss over the globe,” said Matthew Hansen, whose team at the University of Maryland in College Park, Md., led the new study.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
649. ARiot
On KXL

Most of it is permitted and built and will be approved. I do accept AGW and CAGW science, but I'm also a realist. Humans are going to "burn it all" because we are incapable of doing anything less.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 366
Hopefully the NWS in Wilmington, OH mentions the potential severe weather outbreak in a Hazardous Weather Outlook later tonight, or tomorrow. Right now the forecast for my area only mentions a 70% chance of showers, and a possible thunderstorm on Sunday. Nothing that would suggest anything significant.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4975
647. eddye
largo fl does it still show the cold air for fl next week
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Paducah, KY

Temperatures are expected to be in the 70s with dew points in the
60s with a cold front bearing down on the heartland Sunday. By
Sunday both ecmwf and gfs are yielding mucapes 500+ j/kg in zero
to 1 kilometer layer. 850mb jet 50+ knots and a 500mb jet of 80
knots. This is true with most any model you pick. Using SPC`s
significant tornado parameter (STP)...values greater than one on
most any model you pick
. The majority of significant tornadoes F2
or greater have been associated with STP values greater than one.
Thus introduced severe thunderstorms into the forecast for Sunday.
Timing is still a bit in question but the window is narrowing down
with models solutions all speeding up. Right now the main threat
appears to be during the day Sunday but could linger into the
evening from the Land Between the Lakes and eastward. Things could
change for the better or not but for right now this is what we
know...the potential is there for a severe weather outbreak with
supercells forming into a QLCS
later in the day.
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FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND SHEAR ALOFT...60-80
DM 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS...SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN
600-1500 J/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS...
FAVORABLE LCL/S AND 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AROUND 300
M2/S2 INDICATE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN EARLY LOOK AT POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE MODES LEANS TOWARDS DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH
CONVECTION GRADUALLY CONGEALING INTO A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM /QLCS/
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL
FOR BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES AS THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS
POTENTIAL STORM MODES AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IN SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS AS THIS POTENTIAL EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. STAY TUNED...


Memphis
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Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 3:00 PM EST Thursday 14 November 2013
Condition:Mostly Cloudy
Pressure:30.0 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:50.2°F
Dewpoint:27.5°F
Humidity:41%
Wind:SW 20 gust 27 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
643. yoboi
Quoting 640. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Keep down here in SWLA & SETX they are spending billions of dollars to accept it target date 2016....don't know if it will be pipeline or rail but there is NO way they would be spending that kind of money on a maybe......
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13F...cold

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
Good afternoon, everybody!

I'm keeping a very close eye on the weather this weekend. The SPC has pointed out a possible severe weather outbreak on Sunday. It's been a while since there has been any significant severe weather here in southwest Ohio.

...DISCUSSION...
SOME UNCERTAINTY LINGERS...BUT TRENDS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
GUIDANCE ARE INCREASINGLY SUGGESTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4975
637. CJ5
Quoting 625. ricderr:
The Canadian's don't want what? A pipeline? Oil? That is Poppycock.



isn't it also correct that they don't want that pipeline to run through their country to seaports where they could increase profits with refining and their own transport????


No. That is not true. Canada has plenty of pipeline capacity to meet its domestic needs and has enough refining capacity to meet its needs though there are less than 20 refineries that currently exist. The government is not willing to spend the capital necessary to build additional refineries. Refining is generally a "local" proposition. It is much easier and safer to move raw crude than refined products. Since Canada can meet its current usage requirements it is not economically viable nor as safe to refine crude in house and the export the various products.
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636. N3EG
Quoting 587. Patrap:
Chevron

At approximately 9.30 a.m. (CST) today, there was an incident at a Chevron pipeline near Milford, Texas.


Run out and fill your gas tanks NOW. This one's probably good for a 30 cent increase.

/sarcasm
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.