Super Typhoon Haiyan's Intensification and Unusually Warm Sub-Surface Waters

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:25 PM GMT on November 13, 2013

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A remarkable warming of the sub-surface Pacific waters east of the Philippines in recent decades, due to a shift in atmospheric circulation patterns and ocean currents that began in the early 1990s, could be responsible for the rapid intensification of Super Typhoon Haiyan. Hurricanes are heat engines, which means they take heat energy out of the ocean, and convert it to kinetic energy in the form of wind. It's well-known that tropical cyclones need surface water temperatures of at least 26.5°C (80°F) to maintain themselves, and that the warmer the water, and the deeper the warm water is, the stronger the storm can get. Deep warm water is important, since as a tropical cyclone tracks over the ocean, it stirs up cooler water from the depths, potentially reducing the intensity of the storm. When both Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita exploded into Category 5 hurricanes as they crossed over a warm eddy in the Gulf of Mexico with a lot of deep, warm water, the concept of the total heat energy available to fuel a hurricane--the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP)--became one that gained wide recognition. The Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines has the largest area of deep, warm water of anywhere on Earth, and these waters have historically fueled the highest incidence of Category 5 storms of anywhere on the planet. Super Typhoon Haiyan tracked over surface waters that were of near-average warmth, 29.5 - 30.5°C (85 - 87°F.) However, the waters at a depth of 100 meters (328 feet) beneath Haiyan during its rapid intensification phase were a huge 3°C above average, according to Professor I-I Lin of the Department of Atmospheric Science at the National Taiwan University. An analysis by the Japan Meteorological Agency for October showed ocean temperatures 4 - 5°C (7 - 9°F) above average during October (Figure 1). This analysis was from a model. When looking at actual measurements made by the Argo float data in early November, the temperatures in the layer 100 meters below the surface under Haiyan were about 3°C above average, not 4 - 5°C, according to Dr. Lin. As the typhoon stirred this unusually warm water to the surface, the storm was likely able to feed off the heat, allowing Haiyan to intensify into one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever observed.


Figure 1. Modeled departure of temperature from average at a depth of 100 meters in the West Pacific Ocean during October 2013, compared to a 1986 - 2008 average. The track and intensity of Super Typhoon Haiyan are overlaid. Haiyan passed directly over large areas of sub-surface water that were much above average in temperature, which likely contributed to the storm's explosive deepening. While this model showed 4 - 5°C departures from average in October, the actual values were closer to 3°C in early November, according to Argo float data. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Why was there such unusually warm sub-surface water?
The sub-surface waters east of the Philippines have warmed dramatically over the past twenty years. According to Pun et al. (2013), "Recent increase in high tropical cyclone heat potential area in the Western North Pacific Ocean", the depth to where ocean temperatures of at least 26°C (79°F) penetrates has increased by 17% since the early 1990s, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential has increased by 13%. The warm-up is due to an increase in the surface winds blowing across the region--the trade winds--which have caused a southward migration and strengthening of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) and the North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC). The strong trade winds have pushed a large amount of water up against the east coast of the Philippines in the past twenty years, resulting in a rate of sea level rise of 10 mm per year--more than triple the global average of 3.1 mm/yr (Figure 2.) This extra sea level rise contributed to the storm surge damage from Super Typhoon Haiyan. Sea level rise data from Legaspi in the Eastern Philippines shows a rise of about 305 mm (12 inches) since 1949. For comparison, global average sea level rose 7.5" (190 mm) since 1901. Part of the rise along the eastern Philippine coast is from tectonic processes--the subsidence of the Philippine plate under the Eurasian plate--but most of it is due to the stronger trade winds piling up warm water along the coast, and the fact that warmer waters expand, raising sea level.


Figure 2. Trend in sea level from satellite altimeter measurements in 1993 - 2010. Black lines are the Sea Surface Height (SSH) in cm from Rio et al. (2009.) Image credit: Qiu, B., and S. Chen, 2012, "Multidecadal sea level and gyre circulation variability in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean", Journal of Physical Oceanography 42.1 (2012): 193-206.

Why have the trade winds sped up?
The surface trade winds in the equatorial Pacific are part of the Walker Circulation--a pattern of rising and sinking air along the Equator that the El Nino/La Nina cycle influences. A strong Walker circulation means there is lower pressure over Indonesia, which pulls in more air at the surface along the Equator from the east, increasing the easterly trade winds. As these trade winds strengthen, they pull surface ocean waters away from South America, allowing cold water to upwell to the surface. This is a La Niña-like situation, which takes heat energy out of the atmosphere, putting it into the ocean, keeping global surface temperatures cooler than they would otherwise be. A weakened Walker circulation is the reverse, resulting in weaker trade winds, and a more El Niño-like situation with higher global surface temperatures. As long as the stronger Walker circulation that has been in place since the early 1990s holds, global surface temperatures should stay cooler than they otherwise would be, prolonging the slow-down in global surface warming that has received much attention this year. There may also be a greater chance of super typhoons and higher storm surges affecting the Philippines, due to the warmer sub-surface waters and re-arranged ocean currents. A 2013 paper by L’Heureux et al. notes that the climate models predict that the Walker circulation should weaken (a more El Niño-like situation)--the reverse of what has been observed the past twenty years. The researchers took the observed pressure patterns over the Pacific in recent decades and removed the atmospheric response to the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The resulting pattern they found showed a steady strengthening of the Walker circulation, in concert with global rising temperatures. So, are we seeing a failure of the climate models? Or is the recent speed-up of the Walker circulation a decades-long temporary "speed bump" in the climate system? Time will tell. It is worth pointing out that a just-released paper by British and Canadian researchers shows that the global surface temperature rise of the past 15 years has been greatly underestimated. As discussed at realclimate.org, "The reason is the data gaps in the weather station network, especially in the Arctic. If you fill these data gaps using satellite measurements, the warming trend is more than doubled in the widely-used HadCRUT4 data, and the much-discussed “warming pause” has virtually disappeared."

I appeared on PBS Newshour last night to discuss the linkages between stronger tropical cyclones and climate change, video here.

References
L’Heureux, Michelle L., Sukyoung Lee, and Bradfield Lyon, 2013, "Recent multidecadal strengthening of the Walker circulation across the tropical Pacific", Nature Climate Change 3.6 (2013): 571-576.

Pun, Iam‐Fei, I‐I. Lin, and Min‐Hui Lo, 2013, "Recent increase in high tropical cyclone heat potential area in the Western North Pacific Ocean", Geophysical Research Letters (2013).

Qiu, B., and S. Chen, 2012, "Multidecadal sea level and gyre circulation variability in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean", Journal of Physical Oceanography 42.1 (2012): 193-206.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 758. barbamz:
On German Spiegel there was a kind of eye witness report today with informations from a german woman who lives in the Philippines for three and a half years and who got many friends in Tacloban. She says that the family of the president of the Philippines and the governing family in Tacloban are die-hard foes, which certainly doesn't help in the management of the catastrophy. One may consider it when relaesed numbers differ between Tacloban and Manila.


Interesting and certainly not out of the question! What a lot of people don't realise, is the rather, what can be maybe deemed 'tribal' feelings in many places. It may sound weird to some, but being foes as such, can mean SO much. A big problem when Libya fell too. But it would make a lot of sense with the difference in their figures too. Even if entirely lame in such circumstances. But the average citizen often means very little to those in such 'higher' places..where ever they are in the world.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53828
Quoting 780. mitthbevnuruodo:


Yes. And corruption is SO embedded in so many places. And sadly, those most likely TO corrupt, often are those with the biggest desire to excel and be in a position giving them the ability to do so. Rare is the person who seeks a position of power, who isn't likely to corrupt. It itself, attracts those who would indulge in it. And why the world never seems to run just right for the whole, and sadly probably never will.


we will
just has not been
an event big enough yet
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EP, 98, 2013111500, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1090W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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Quoting 779. yoboi:



Try going 7 days without eating or drinking water....If you do it.....it will change your outlook about things.....
real fast but that's in anyones case
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Quoting 776. nwobilderburg:


its pretty sad how corruption and fighting is still occuring, even the wake of this disaster


Yes. And corruption is SO embedded in so many places. And sadly, those most likely TO corrupt, often are those with the biggest desire to excel and be in a position giving them the ability to do so. Rare is the person who seeks a position of power, who isn't likely to corrupt. It itself, attracts those who would indulge in it. And why the world never seems to run just right for the whole, and sadly probably never will.
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779. yoboi
Quoting 776. nwobilderburg:


its pretty sad how corruption and fighting is still occuring, even the wake of this disaster



Try going 7 days without eating or drinking water....If you do it.....it will change your outlook about things.....
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XX/XX/XX
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53828
Quoting 774. Skyepony:
This is about 40 miles from where that sinkhole took that guy earlier this year.

Landslide in USA on Thursday, 14 November, 2013 at 14:22 (02:22 PM) UTC.
Description
A home collapsed into a sinkhole in Dunedin early Thursday morning. Deputies and EMS workers are on the scene at 1112 Robmar Road in the neighborhood just north of downtown Dunedin. Duke Energy has shut down power to the area, and six other homes have been evacuated as a precaution. At 7:00 a.m., Dunedin Deputy Fire Chief Tripp Barrs said that two homes were collapsing and the sinkhole, estimated at 80 feet wide and 40 feet deep, was still expanding.
No injuries have been reported.




back then read up about them...UGH nightmare! I'd be proper freaking out! But I do that over natural things anyway LOL But still!
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Quoting 771. barbamz:
Haiyan Relief: UN Instructs U.S. Marines to Keep Relief Goods Away from Philippine Officials
IBT, By Reissa Su | November 14, 2013 4:25 PM EST


its pretty sad how corruption and fighting is still occuring, even the wake of this disaster
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Quoting 757. cynyc2:


Not entirely true. If OPEC were to embargo again, the countries affected would have to bid on other markets, and that would affect us in the US.

Keep in mind that oil is a world market. The Keystone pipeline is so that Canada can sell on that world market. We pay about 20% less that other countries on this market now. If Canada has access to the gulf, that price will rise.

Canada wants access to our refineries - why build them if you can use someone else's? The refineries just happen to be located in an area that has tankers leaving empty on a regular basis as well.

There is a reason we export more refined products currently from the US than we import. They are more profitable elsewhere than they are here, even when the shipping cost is included...


Yes, like here in the UK! 1.30 a measly LITER LOL Even when you account for monetary difference, still A LOT! And even with monetary difference, can only equate it evenly with cost of living. Just cause the UK pound is worth more than the dollar market-wise..it still means the same in everyday living. So, really makes no help.

And oil co' and their backers..will do whatever to make sure their profits rise...so no hope for the rest of us aside from renewables...and a BIG part of why I'm for them on a personal level! (ie:having own solar/wind/whatever source)
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774. Skyepony (Mod)
This is about 40 miles from where that sinkhole took that guy earlier this year.

Landslide in USA on Thursday, 14 November, 2013 at 14:22 (02:22 PM) UTC.
Description
A home collapsed into a sinkhole in Dunedin early Thursday morning. Deputies and EMS workers are on the scene at 1112 Robmar Road in the neighborhood just north of downtown Dunedin. Duke Energy has shut down power to the area, and six other homes have been evacuated as a precaution. At 7:00 a.m., Dunedin Deputy Fire Chief Tripp Barrs said that two homes were collapsing and the sinkhole, estimated at 80 feet wide and 40 feet deep, was still expanding.
No injuries have been reported.


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Haiyan Relief: UN Instructs U.S. Marines to Keep Relief Goods Away from Philippine Officials
IBT, By Reissa Su | November 14, 2013 4:25 PM EST
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Brazil says Amazon deforestation rose 28% in a year
BBC News, 14 November 2013 Last updated at 23:07 GMT

Brazil says the rate of deforestation in the Amazon increased by 28% between August 2012 and last July, after years of decline.

The government is working to reverse this "crime", Environment Minister Izabella Teixeira said.

Activists have blamed the increase in destruction on a controversial reform to Brazil's forest protection law.

Last year Brazil reported the lowest rate of deforestation in the Amazon since monitoring began.

The provisional statistics from August 2012 to last July suggest that the area suffering deforestation was 5,843 sq km (2,255 sq miles), compared to 4,571 sq km (1,765 sq miles) in the previous 12 months.

Despite the interruption of the decline sequence started in 2009, the latest deforested area still remains the second lowest ever recorded.

The result frustrated the government's expectations, but several scientific institutions had suggested increases in their monthly deforestation reports.

Environmentalists say the controversial reform of the forest protection law in 2012 is to blame for the upwards trend.

The changes reduced protected areas in farms and declared an amnesty for areas destroyed before 2008.

The reform, a long-standing demand of the country's farmers' lobby, known as the ruralists, was passed after several vetoes by President Dilma Rousseff. ...


Whole article see link above.
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769. yoboi
Quoting 763. Neapolitan:
Why, to make himself look better, of course. The President's "Aw, c'mon, it ain't that bad here" is the Filipino equivalent of "Heckuva job, Brownie!"

Anyway, might I suggest you study up on the Philippines? It's fascinating. Better yet, Google Corruption in the Philippines. It's just as fascinating--but also very depressing, especially in light of the current situation.


Really dude Bush has been gone for many yrs.......maybe talk to Blanco & Nagin for why they would not ask for fed-aid.....I am from Louisiana and Blanco, Nagin and Bush all blew it for Katrina....I know because I spent 5 days in NOLA when the storm hit.....Repukes and demorats are to blame for that fiasco......there is not a day that goes by that I don't wake up and have to relive what many people in louisiana went thru SO please leave out the Brownie, Blanco, Nagin and Bush things alone.......you have No clue what we went thru here.......thanks
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Quoting 767. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
some form of it everywhere sad really I just take note of it as another trait of human nature


"Follow the money..."
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Quoting 763. Neapolitan:
Why, to make himself look better, of course. The President's "Aw, c'mon, it ain't that bad here" is the Filipino equivalent of "Heckuva job, Brownie!"

Anyway, might I suggest you study up on the Philippines? It's fascinating. Better yet, Google Corruption in the Philippines. It's just as fascinating--but also very depressing, especially in light of the current situation.
some form of it everywhere sad really I just take note of it as another trait of human nature
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LesBonsTemps, this is your guy Podul right now. Glad to hear that you're fine in Nha Trang. May it stay this way!



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Sunset in Charlotte TN taken 1.5 hours ago...
Y'all have a nice evening...
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TD 32 (Podul) is currently centered almost directly over Nha Trang, Vietnam where we are receiving heavy, but not torrential, rain. Winds are light. Not sure how much rain we had last night, but I believe it was off and on. Some minor street flooding has begun; judging from conditions in TD 30 10 days ago (pre-Haiyan) we can expect flooded roadways in places soon if rains persist at this intensity for several more hours. Only a nuisance for some, nothing more.
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Quoting 752. ncstorm:


what would be the vested interest in him downplaying an event? maybe he was misinformed or maybe he is right..less numbers would mean less aid..that would mean he would want people to suffer instead of receiving help? I hope not..Im personally rooting for the President to be right..

does the UN have a vested interest?

Why, to make himself look better, of course. The President's "Aw, c'mon, it ain't that bad here" is the Filipino equivalent of "Heckuva job, Brownie!"

Anyway, might I suggest you study up on the Philippines? It's fascinating. Better yet, Google Corruption in the Philippines. It's just as fascinating--but also very depressing, especially in light of the current situation.
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It was kind of weird to watch that storm chaser video where they were rescuing people from first floor rooms in the middle of the storm. It was like no one had mentioned storm surge.

Edit: That was Tacloban.
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98E up to 30%.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. AFTER THAT TIME...STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND INTERACTION WITH LAND ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Quoting 741. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ya they always hide the dead as to not scare folk and make themselves look bad for not taking measures to prevent the numbers in the first place
That is what it starting to look like.
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Nathan VanderKlippe

TACLOBAN CITY, Philippines — The Globe and Mail

Last updated Wednesday, Nov. 13 2013, 10:27 PM EST


As the truck lumbers past the rubble-strewn remains of Tacloban City, onlookers pull shirts over their faces and use fingers to plug their noses. The truck is laden with death, 34 people killed by Typhoon Haiyan. Their decay, after five days in the heat and humidity, creates a stench that blankets the street as the truck passes by.





This is a funeral procession, or what amounts to one in a place where unidentified bodies still lie on roadsides, their skin now sloughing off in decomposition.

The truck’s trip, before it is interrupted by a report of attacking rebels, is the opening of a mass burial effort in a city overwhelmed.

“This is the very first truck,” says Jay James Arroyo, who is with the Philippines National Bureau of Investigation. He is following the truck in a covered pickup, and has dabbed Vicks VapoRub under his nose to help mask the smell.

From the day Haiyan hit, the startling number of visible corpses has been among the most affecting symbols of the devastation caused by the typhoon, which the United Nations now estimates has affected 11.3 million people – nearly one in 10 in the Philippines.

But not until Wednesday has a major effort been mounted to clear them away in Tacloban. Crews lay rows of corpses on a plaza in front of a downtown shop overlooking the water that once sold souvenirs. By Wednesday morning, 185 had been brought here, a fraction of the official death toll, which stood at 2,344. They expect 600 to be buried in coming days.

“Right now the mayor wants all the bodies removed,” says Emmanuel Aranas, a senior superintendent with the NBI. Not far from him, a single small hand sticks into the air out of one of the body bags. “The burial itself is only temporary. When the situation is better, then the government will conduct identification if they want to.”

For now, not even the basics of identification are being carried out. No one knows, for example, how many of the 34 bodies on the truck are men, women or children.

And to underscore the fraught situation in Tacloban, the burial effort is halted in a flurry of screaming and running, when a report of gunshots sends the NBI agents and accompanying troops frantically seeking cover. The soldiers, most of them unarmed, say a local rebel group called the New People’s Army has fired from a bridge ahead. The New People’s Army, or NPA, is the militant wing of the Communist Party of the Philippines. “There is information that some rebels will attack,” one says. The soldiers are visibly scared. One crosses himself.

Nearby residents join the rush away, mothers clinging to babies. One man running with a toddler trips on downed power cables, and falls hard onto the concrete. The trucks are eventually turned around and race back to the souvenir shop, soldiers yelling “Alert! Alert!” as they return.

On Wednesday, Nelson Javier watched while funeral home personnel drove up in an old Mercedes hearse to pick up the bloated body of his aunt, who died when a floating shipping container landed on her new house and crushed it.

The workers from the Rolling Hills funeral home tied her hands together, wrapped her in blankets, placed her on a stretcher and slid her into the back of the hearse. It was barely 9 a.m. and she was their sixth body of the day. Rolling Hills, which charges $1,200 for the pickup and a funeral, is the only such operation still running; the rest were either destroyed by the flood, or have owners who have left town.

The mayor of Tacloban has told residents to leave the city because the administration still lacked the means to distribute food or equipment to pull corpses from the rubble left by Haiyan, one of the most powerful storms ever recorded. But other government officials defended their response. Philippines Cabinet Secretary Rene Almendras told the BBC: “We have never,” he said, “done anything like this before.”
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On German Spiegel there was a kind of eye witness report today with informations from a german woman who lives in the Philippines for three and a half years and who got many friends in Tacloban. She says that the family of the president of the Philippines and the governing family in Tacloban are die-hard foes, which certainly doesn't help in the management of the catastrophy. One may consider it when relaesed numbers differ between Tacloban and Manila.
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Quoting 736. CJ5:


Partly true. Russia has a deal with SA that gas exports would not traverse Syria and into Europe. Russia has a deal with Iran and Iraq for the transportation of gas to Europe. Currently they control the distribution to Europe. Russia also wants to secure influence with Syria to build there distribution. It is pretty complicated and intertwined.

I have no doubt SA would prefer not to have the Keystone but even without major portions of the Keystone the US is not near as dependent on OPEC as it once was and that continues to diminish. It top production from Canada is achieved and additional production from the US is added, OPEC will have little no no influence on North America oil. That is a excellent position for the US to be in and one we have all wanted for a long time.


Not entirely true. If OPEC were to embargo again, the countries affected would have to bid on other markets, and that would affect us in the US.

Keep in mind that oil is a world market. The Keystone pipeline is so that Canada can sell on that world market. We pay about 20% less that other countries on this market now. If Canada has access to the gulf, that price will rise.

Canada wants access to our refineries - why build them if you can use someone else's? The refineries just happen to be located in an area that has tankers leaving empty on a regular basis as well.

There is a reason we export more refined products currently from the US than we import. They are more profitable elsewhere than they are here, even when the shipping cost is included...
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MANILA—A low-level Maoist insurgency active in the Philippines is complicating the distribution of aid to survivors of Typhoon Haiyan. Aid workers say they fear attack or kidnapping by rebels from the New People's Army, the 5,000-strong armed wing
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Two video reports from Guiuan today. Interesting to compare them in respect to their mood.

BBC Link

CNN Link

More on why most of the population obviously survived see post #666.
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Quoting 753. PalmBeachWeather:
Good evening all... Going out to a late supper at Two Georges in Boynton Beach... Take care friends..



enjoy
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53828
Good evening all... Going out to a late supper at Two Georges in Boynton Beach... Take care friends..
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Quoting 747. Neapolitan:
The UN says 4,400 and rising; the President still clings to his "2,500 tops" statement. One of the two is clearly incorrect. Is it an organization there to render aid as effectively as possible? Or is it a corrupt politician who has a vested interest in downplaying the true nature of the event?

Hmmm............


what would be the vested interest in him downplaying an event? maybe he was misinformed or maybe he is right..less numbers would mean less aid..that would mean he would want people to suffer instead of receiving help? I hope not..Im personally rooting for the President to be right..

does the UN have a vested interest?

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Being a product of the 60's I always encouraged my children to bring home a few D s. I explained that D was a revolutionary and radical grade, not like the bourgeois "C" or the nerdy A and B. They considered this and decided that I was a schmuck...and would instead bring home As to tick me off. It worked.
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Quoting 747. Neapolitan:
The UN says 4,400 and rising; the President still clings to his "2,500 tops" statement. One of the two is clearly incorrect. Is it an organization there to render aid as effectively as possible? Or is it a corrupt politician who has a vested interest in downplaying the true nature of the event?

Hmmm............
the region affected by the storm was an area of uprising against the government anyway as of late maybe that has something to do with it

if anything nature did what the government wanted done anyway or would have had to do eventually
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I've seen several photos published of what look like several different large ships washed up on shore in Tacloban by the surge, surrounded by huge piles of lumber and debris. At least one caption said the ships had demolished whole neighborhoods of shanties, and undoubtedly there were hundreds of people there who are now under the piles of lumber held in place by the hulls of freighters. You can't count the bodies you can't see.
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Quoting 744. bappit:

Let u = e^x and solve the quadratic equation. The answer will be obvious.
The answer is either "6" or "C".
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Quoting 730. Jaevyn:


The UN is most likely correct. The Philippino president has one eye on the well being of his citizens and one eye on his own well being. The lower the death toll, the lower the pressure on him. Since the rest of the Philippines has about the same knowledge as we do, any downward estimate is more likely to take their eyes off the response of the government, as sad as this is.
The UN says 4,400 and rising; the President still clings to his "2,500 tops" statement. One of the two is clearly incorrect. Is it an organization there to render aid as effectively as possible? Or is it a corrupt politician who has a vested interest in downplaying the true nature of the event?

Hmmm............
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Quoting 745. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
like the old sayin goes

acceptable losses are ok as long as there is no kin to claim them
Yep...And so sad. Grandma & Grandpa takes in the little kids and will never know what happened to Mommy & Daddy.
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Quoting 742. PalmBeachWeather:
And just how long will the search continue before the bulldozers come in and hide any evidence of more bodies... Such a shame, but I believe it happens.
like the old sayin goes

acceptable losses are ok as long as there is no kin to claim them
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Quoting 667. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I have an off-topic question for those who are good with math. Took a test for pre-calculus today, had this problem:

Solve: e^x+e^-x=2

I got no solution. My teacher said that wasn't right. How?!

Let u = e^x and solve the quadratic equation. The answer will be obvious.
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Quoting 717. GTstormChaserCaleb:
WolframAlpha
My professor actually pointed us to this website. I'm just thankful my homework grades is picking up my quiz grades (it's not bad, but it's just decent) as well as one bad exam (I did well on other one). I just need to nail third exam and final exam and I'm okay. I'm 95% likely to pass Calculus at this point as long as I just study.
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Quoting 741. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ya they always hide the dead as to not scare folk and make themselves look bad for not taking measures to prevent the numbers in the first place
And just how long will the search continue before the bulldozers come in and hide any evidence of more bodies... Such a shame, but I believe it happens.
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Quoting 689. hydrus:
we will never know the exact toll..never
ya they always hide the dead as to not scare folk and make themselves look bad for not taking measures to prevent the numbers in the first place
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53828
Quoting 502. LargoFl:
I have heard the sun is going into a slow period but i dunno about this.....The Little Ice Age should be the story of the century, yet it’s only being announced quietly by climate scientists and solar physicists. Not a word is being mentioned by the mainstream media, who had a hand in selling the Global Warming propaganda that has become irrelevant as we slide into colder climate.

US solar scientists have announced years ago that the sun appears to be headed into a lengthly spell of low activity, which means that the Earth is far from facing a Global Warming catastrophe and actually headed into a Little Ice Age.

According to geophysicist Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera at the University of Mexico, in about 5 years the “Earth will enter a “Little Ice Age” which will last from 60 to 80 years and may be caused by the decrease in solar activity.”

The geophysicist slammed the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), saying their stand on global warming “is incorrect because only are based on mathematical models and presented results at scenarios that do not include, for example, solar activity”.

We’re already seeing and feeling the signs of the Little Ice Age, the article continues.


A word isn't being mentioned because there is nothing to mention. We aren't cooling. There is no evidence of cooling. Global temperatures haven't been "normal" since the mid '80's, and that's including multiple La Nina's and slightly below average solar activity.

In order for the Earth to cool, the energy balance of the planet has to go negative, i.e. the Earth needs to radiate more energy than it receives. That simply isn't happening (verified both by surface and satellite observations).

The Earth going into another little ice age in five years is completely ridiculous. It doesn't even make physical sense. In order for that to occur all the excess energy that has been stored in the oceans over the past decades would need to magically go away, along with some other magical process that would magically reduce the greenhouse effect. By what mechanism could this possibly happen in a 5 year period, short of a massive asteroid strike or massive supervolcano eruption?

This so-called scientist also apparently doesn't bother to read up on climate models. Every climate model incorporates a full radiative transfer model complete with solar variance. Also, all models are mathematical models of physical processes that incorporate real world data. That's why they are models. Everything from car engine models to airfoils to climate models are mathematical constructs built to simulate real world. This clown makes it sound like it's some big bad secret.

And what, pray tell, are the signs of global cooling we're experiencing? Because according to all scientific measurements I'm aware we aren't cooling. Oceans with record heat content, declining arctic ice, melting permafrost and clathrates, tree lines moving northwards, invasive species migrations, increased atmospheric moisture, whacked out weather patterns, etc. aren't exactly signs that the planet is cooling off.

I've seen cow pastures with less bull. Let this guy publish a paper with his deep insights and get it through to real science journal. Until then, he's just another denialist spouting pseudo-scientific nonsense.
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Photos of damage in Guiuan.

Mind-boggling...

http://chuvaness.com/photos-what-happened-in-guiu an/
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School matters. You demonstrate your ability to jump through hoops. That requires self-discipline. It also requires some ability to jump through those hoops. True, the hoops in the business world will always differ from those in school. More important, grades do not demonstrate self-esteem or interpersonal skills. Good self-esteem is vital.
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There's a polar bear on the Tundra cam just hanging out...eating twigs, jumping in the snow. It's actually pretty amusing to watch.

Link
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
736. CJ5
Quoting 695. trunkmonkey:


The Obama scheme was to put up a puppet Government in Syria, failed. Putin out smarted Obama!
With that said, Saudi Arabia's plan was to have this Government OK a plan for Katar and Saudi Arabia to build a pipeline from their Countries, to the Coast of Syria, to provide oil for Europe.
Currently Iran and Russia provide oil to Europe, this pipeline would cut into the profits of these two countries.
Saudi Arabia is giving Billions of dollars to stop the Keystone pipeline, if installed it will cut into their profits, America is in their back pockets, and will give into their demands!


Partly true. Russia has a deal with SA that gas exports would not traverse Syria and into Europe. Russia has a deal with Iran and Iraq for the transportation of gas to Europe. Currently they control the distribution to Europe. Russia also wants to secure influence with Syria to build there distribution. It is pretty complicated and intertwined.

I have no doubt SA would prefer not to have the Keystone but even without major portions of the Keystone the US is not near as dependent on OPEC as it once was and that continues to diminish. It top production from Canada is achieved and additional production from the US is added, OPEC will have little no no influence on North America oil. That is a excellent position for the US to be in and one we have all wanted for a long time.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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