Super Typhoon Haiyan's Intensification and Unusually Warm Sub-Surface Waters

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:25 PM GMT on November 13, 2013

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A remarkable warming of the sub-surface Pacific waters east of the Philippines in recent decades, due to a shift in atmospheric circulation patterns and ocean currents that began in the early 1990s, could be responsible for the rapid intensification of Super Typhoon Haiyan. Hurricanes are heat engines, which means they take heat energy out of the ocean, and convert it to kinetic energy in the form of wind. It's well-known that tropical cyclones need surface water temperatures of at least 26.5°C (80°F) to maintain themselves, and that the warmer the water, and the deeper the warm water is, the stronger the storm can get. Deep warm water is important, since as a tropical cyclone tracks over the ocean, it stirs up cooler water from the depths, potentially reducing the intensity of the storm. When both Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita exploded into Category 5 hurricanes as they crossed over a warm eddy in the Gulf of Mexico with a lot of deep, warm water, the concept of the total heat energy available to fuel a hurricane--the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP)--became one that gained wide recognition. The Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines has the largest area of deep, warm water of anywhere on Earth, and these waters have historically fueled the highest incidence of Category 5 storms of anywhere on the planet. Super Typhoon Haiyan tracked over surface waters that were of near-average warmth, 29.5 - 30.5°C (85 - 87°F.) However, the waters at a depth of 100 meters (328 feet) beneath Haiyan during its rapid intensification phase were a huge 3°C above average, according to Professor I-I Lin of the Department of Atmospheric Science at the National Taiwan University. An analysis by the Japan Meteorological Agency for October showed ocean temperatures 4 - 5°C (7 - 9°F) above average during October (Figure 1). This analysis was from a model. When looking at actual measurements made by the Argo float data in early November, the temperatures in the layer 100 meters below the surface under Haiyan were about 3°C above average, not 4 - 5°C, according to Dr. Lin. As the typhoon stirred this unusually warm water to the surface, the storm was likely able to feed off the heat, allowing Haiyan to intensify into one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever observed.


Figure 1. Modeled departure of temperature from average at a depth of 100 meters in the West Pacific Ocean during October 2013, compared to a 1986 - 2008 average. The track and intensity of Super Typhoon Haiyan are overlaid. Haiyan passed directly over large areas of sub-surface water that were much above average in temperature, which likely contributed to the storm's explosive deepening. While this model showed 4 - 5°C departures from average in October, the actual values were closer to 3°C in early November, according to Argo float data. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Why was there such unusually warm sub-surface water?
The sub-surface waters east of the Philippines have warmed dramatically over the past twenty years. According to Pun et al. (2013), "Recent increase in high tropical cyclone heat potential area in the Western North Pacific Ocean", the depth to where ocean temperatures of at least 26°C (79°F) penetrates has increased by 17% since the early 1990s, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential has increased by 13%. The warm-up is due to an increase in the surface winds blowing across the region--the trade winds--which have caused a southward migration and strengthening of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) and the North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC). The strong trade winds have pushed a large amount of water up against the east coast of the Philippines in the past twenty years, resulting in a rate of sea level rise of 10 mm per year--more than triple the global average of 3.1 mm/yr (Figure 2.) This extra sea level rise contributed to the storm surge damage from Super Typhoon Haiyan. Sea level rise data from Legaspi in the Eastern Philippines shows a rise of about 305 mm (12 inches) since 1949. For comparison, global average sea level rose 7.5" (190 mm) since 1901. Part of the rise along the eastern Philippine coast is from tectonic processes--the subsidence of the Philippine plate under the Eurasian plate--but most of it is due to the stronger trade winds piling up warm water along the coast, and the fact that warmer waters expand, raising sea level.


Figure 2. Trend in sea level from satellite altimeter measurements in 1993 - 2010. Black lines are the Sea Surface Height (SSH) in cm from Rio et al. (2009.) Image credit: Qiu, B., and S. Chen, 2012, "Multidecadal sea level and gyre circulation variability in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean", Journal of Physical Oceanography 42.1 (2012): 193-206.

Why have the trade winds sped up?
The surface trade winds in the equatorial Pacific are part of the Walker Circulation--a pattern of rising and sinking air along the Equator that the El Nino/La Nina cycle influences. A strong Walker circulation means there is lower pressure over Indonesia, which pulls in more air at the surface along the Equator from the east, increasing the easterly trade winds. As these trade winds strengthen, they pull surface ocean waters away from South America, allowing cold water to upwell to the surface. This is a La Niña-like situation, which takes heat energy out of the atmosphere, putting it into the ocean, keeping global surface temperatures cooler than they would otherwise be. A weakened Walker circulation is the reverse, resulting in weaker trade winds, and a more El Niño-like situation with higher global surface temperatures. As long as the stronger Walker circulation that has been in place since the early 1990s holds, global surface temperatures should stay cooler than they otherwise would be, prolonging the slow-down in global surface warming that has received much attention this year. There may also be a greater chance of super typhoons and higher storm surges affecting the Philippines, due to the warmer sub-surface waters and re-arranged ocean currents. A 2013 paper by L’Heureux et al. notes that the climate models predict that the Walker circulation should weaken (a more El Niño-like situation)--the reverse of what has been observed the past twenty years. The researchers took the observed pressure patterns over the Pacific in recent decades and removed the atmospheric response to the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The resulting pattern they found showed a steady strengthening of the Walker circulation, in concert with global rising temperatures. So, are we seeing a failure of the climate models? Or is the recent speed-up of the Walker circulation a decades-long temporary "speed bump" in the climate system? Time will tell. It is worth pointing out that a just-released paper by British and Canadian researchers shows that the global surface temperature rise of the past 15 years has been greatly underestimated. As discussed at realclimate.org, "The reason is the data gaps in the weather station network, especially in the Arctic. If you fill these data gaps using satellite measurements, the warming trend is more than doubled in the widely-used HadCRUT4 data, and the much-discussed “warming pause” has virtually disappeared."

I appeared on PBS Newshour last night to discuss the linkages between stronger tropical cyclones and climate change, video here.

References
L’Heureux, Michelle L., Sukyoung Lee, and Bradfield Lyon, 2013, "Recent multidecadal strengthening of the Walker circulation across the tropical Pacific", Nature Climate Change 3.6 (2013): 571-576.

Pun, Iam‐Fei, I‐I. Lin, and Min‐Hui Lo, 2013, "Recent increase in high tropical cyclone heat potential area in the Western North Pacific Ocean", Geophysical Research Letters (2013).

Qiu, B., and S. Chen, 2012, "Multidecadal sea level and gyre circulation variability in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean", Journal of Physical Oceanography 42.1 (2012): 193-206.

Jeff Masters

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oh beautiful sunrise here in e cen florida the cloud bank off to the west held off just long enough.
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some good rain on the way here finally..............
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST FRI NOV 15 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA
OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. AFTER THAT
TIME...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Link

First-ever map of global deforestation.
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Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. After two nights of temps around 32, it's back to 51 degrees with a high expected of 69 and raining. My heat was fixed for the second night, which was a relief.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: steak, eggs and hash browns, Crawfish Breakfast Enchiladas with and without cheese, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, Egg, Sausage & Cheese Breakfast Bowl, fluffy scrambled eggs with and without cheese, Apple pie bites (apple slice wrapped in a croissant), andouille sausage and shrimp over cheesy grits, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice.Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
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Although I understand the parallel you are trying to make between the two storms, there are some very important distinctions that need to be considered, when doing so.

First, the eye of Andrew was smaller and more compact than Haiyan's, when the latter made landfall S of Tacloban City.

Secondly, the distance between the 922 mb pressure measured in Andrew and the northern-most portion of the eyewall was only 11 nm. This is quite significant because the 982 mb pressure you are referencing was recorded at the NHC, which was 15 nm from the centroid of the eye, and a full 4 nm OUTSIDE the eyewall.

In addition, hurricane Andrew was rapidly intensifying as it was coming ashore just E of Homestead. In contrast, both the radar and satellite presentations of Haiyan, while still impressive, had deteriorated somewhat between the initial landfall near Guiuan, and it's subsequent landfall just S of Palo. This was not surprising since the northern eyewall, that would ultimately move into Tacloban, had been encountering friction (as it scraped along the southern coast of Samar) during the entire two hours that elapsed between the two respective landfalls.

With the aforementioned in mind, there's very little doubt that Haiyan didn't have as steep a pressure gradient, at closest approach to Tacloban, as the one observed in hurricane Andrew-when it struck the SE coast of Fl. Based on all the available data collected to date, it seems far more plausible that Typhoon Haiyan moved ashore into the Lyete peninsula with a lowest barometric pressure in the general vicinity of 930 mb, and likely at category four intensity (possibly borderline category five). I suspect that the satellite estimates over-exaggerated the peak intensity of Haiyan, when it made its initial landfall near Guiuan. That being said, it is highly probable that it was still a very intense category five TC (with a lowest minimum central pressure in the 910 mb range) when it made landfall in eastern Samar.
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A wet night for my area on Oahu.

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Quoting 826. Bluestorm5:


And pressure was ~960 mb 15 nm from center according to storm chasers. Basically, this mean Haiyan having pressure below 920 mb or so is very possible at 2nd landfall with crazy pressure gradient. Thanks for the information, Scott. It's too bad we'll never know the true pressure from this storm while at sea, 1st landfall, and 2nd landfall.


I thought I'd take this opportunity to share a post I made on another weather forum in response to another blogger who made a similar suggestion as the one I've read here; that Haiyan must've had a "crazy" pressure gradient at its second landfall, and also used Andrew as an analog storm.

I should add that the obvious reason people are making this assumption is because the pressure reading taken by the storm chasers in Tacloban City seems inconsistent with the extreme intensity most want to ascribe to it. In other words, this talk about a supposed incredible pressure gradient isn't supported by the actual in situ observations, but based solely on presumptions to fit what most want to believe. If the aforementioned storm chasers had observed a pressure of 930 mb in Tacloban, as opposed to 960 mb, the idea of a supposed "crazy" pressure gradient wouldn't be seriously discussed.

To keep this post shorter, I will simply post the post I made on this subject, in another forum, in a subsequent post here.
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Good Rain Chances Today finally......
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Good Morning Folks!........................
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Quoting 863. ColoradoBob1:
Quoting 847. BaltimoreBrian:

Join NewsVine , and come see me, I can help to your store the torrent of information. you are trying to record.

Pasting giant blocks of links here means nothing.
Well, I wouldn't completely agree with that on the receiving end...

@ Brian, we really enjoy having your daily list.
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Link

If all the ice melted ???
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Link

Is Global Heating Hiding out in the Oceans?

Parts of Pacific Warming 15 Times Faster Than in Past 10,000 Years
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Also on GEM at 96 hours....
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System still in Atlantic.. may actually happen
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869. red0
Quoting 867. swflurker:
Isn't the acid coming from the atmosphere via rain?


The acid is generated in the ocean waters as co2 dissolves in it. When CO2 and H2O meet, you get a little bit of H2CO3 or Carbonic acid. Carbonated water from the coke fountain contains a bit too for reference.


The flip side of this is that anything that breaks the sea surface will cause more co2 to meet more h2o. Fat kids doing cannonballs off the end of the pier contribute to increased ocean acidification!
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Before and After Yolanda/Haiyan

Shows the scar left by the typhoon.



Click for larger image.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Completely wrong. Ammonia is alkaline, not acidic.
Isn't the acid coming from the atmosphere via rain?
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866. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
DEPRESSION BOB05-2013
8:30 AM IST November 15 2013
====================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, the depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved southwestward and lays center near 9.5N 83.5E, about 530 km southeast of Chennai, and 420 km east southeast of Nagapattinam.

The system would move west northwestward and cross northern Tamil Nadu coast near Nagapattinam some time around Saturday evening.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken low/medium clouds embedded with intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 8.0N to 12.5N and 80.0E to 85.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -80C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knot with gusts of 35 knots. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center. The central pressure of the depression is 1003 hPa.

Oceansat-II observations based on 1830 UTC November 14 indicate 20-30 knots in northwest and northeast sector and 15-25 knots in southern sector.

The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 14.0N in association with the anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of the system center. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity remained same during past 12 hrs. The sea surface temperature is about 28-29c and ocean thermal energy is about 60-80 kj/cm2. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is moderate to high (15-25 knots). Due to this high wind shear, the convection shows flaring and ragged wrapping. The Madden-Jullian Oscillation index lies over phase 3 with amplitude less than 1. Numerical weather prediction models suggest that Madden-Jullian Oscillation would move to phase 2 during next 24 hrs with decreasing amplitude. It is not supportive for intensification. Numerical weather prediction models guidance continues to show large variations with respect to track, landfall point and landfall time though most of the models suggest the landfall over Tamil Nadu. With respect to intensification, there is more consensus suggesting no further intensification. Even some models suggest weakening of the system before landfall. Current forecast is based on consensus Numerical weather prediction and dynamical statistical guidance and synoptic analysis.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST THU NOV 14 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA
OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. AFTER THAT
TIME...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND INTERACTION WITH LAND ARE
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Quoting 839. Pallis:
Another way soil becomes acidic is the use of high-nitrogen synthetic fertilizers. These fertilizers are usually ammonia-based, which increases soil acidity. Soil gets leached into creeks, then rivers until it gets into the oceans. This is why we now see red tide in the wrong time of year sometimes.


Completely wrong. Ammonia is alkaline, not acidic.
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Quoting 847. BaltimoreBrian:

Join NewsVine , and come see me, I can help to your store the torrent of information. you are trying to record.

Pasting giant blocks of links here means nothing.
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Quoting 858. TomTaylor:
Heat and moisture are required, clearly. The point is Haiyan had more sub-surface heat available to it than it needed. Therefore, the anomalous sub-surface heat Masters' is looking at was probably largely irrelevant.

The true reason Haiyan was able to attain such spectacular structural perfection was because of an ideal upper-level environment. Low latitude may have also allowed it to resist an EWRC since the Coriolis parameter decreases as you approach the equator.

Haiyan underwent an eyewall replacement just after passing Palau. The convection surrounding the eye weakened briefly before the eye itself grew in size.
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Quoting 859. PedleyCA:
Good Night Peeps - Stay Safe - Stay Warm - Beware of Hazards ......
Isn't it like 6 in the afternoon where you are at? I mean, I go to bed early sometimes, but if I went to sleep that early, I would be up a 1 AM and ready to kill some fish.
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Quoting 854. BaltimoreBrian:
I mean, how strong would Haiyan have been if the water had been 77F? Perfect atmospheric conditions wouldn't have done a lot with that. Haiyan had everything going for it, and needed everything to become as strong as it did.
That would have been quite different than reality. Tom's right. It passed over that water without gaining a quadrillioth of the energy it passed over. I watched it on radar. It simply took all of the moisture from a thousand miles radius and decided to truck on yonder. The heat is still there to see, unlike the gulf of Mexico.
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Good Night Peeps - Stay Safe - Stay Warm - Beware of Hazards ......
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Quoting 854. BaltimoreBrian:
I mean, how strong would Haiyan have been if the water had been 77F? Perfect atmospheric conditions wouldn't have done a lot with that. Haiyan had everything going for it, and needed everything to become as strong as it did.
Heat and moisture are required, clearly. The point is Haiyan had more sub-surface heat available to it than it needed. Therefore, the anomalous sub-surface heat Masters' is looking at was probably largely irrelevant.

The true reason Haiyan was able to attain such spectacular structural perfection was because of an ideal upper-level environment. Low latitude may have also allowed it to resist an EWRC since the Coriolis parameter decreases as you approach the equator.
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Quoting 847. BaltimoreBrian:


Thanks I'll check that out! I automated a script to put my list together.


You get up every morning and read the need to seed. Click need to seed to Newsvine and paste it . It takes seconds .

Then you have research a record on the web . Not some pile of links on your computer.

It's a file. ............

Think I'm joking ?

Google -

The Tundra is on fire at Newsvine.

I recorded the largest tundra fire in 5,000 years. In real time.
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Quoting 853. Astrometeor:


Brian, in Max's blog, you used the same video but said "Astro and Max" instead of Cody and Jordan. Which is it?


I'll be as ambiguous in that as I am with which one is eating the meatballs! :)
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Quoting 852. BaltimoreBrian:
Tropical blogger hair?

Eye of newt and
toe of frog
wool of bat
and tongue of dog.


Don't criticize me. I came up with the above in approximately -0.25e seconds.

Quoting 851. TomTaylor:
Deep warm water always helps. The point was that deep warm water is always present in the WPAC. Thus, the anomalous (excess) deep warm water heat that Dr. M was looking at was rather insignificant.

TCs are heat engines, but they can only consume so much fuel at a time. It takes time to tap into the fuel beneath the surface.


Hi TT. Haven't seen you in a LONG while. Nice to see ya again.
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I mean, how strong would Haiyan have been if the water had been 77F? Perfect atmospheric conditions wouldn't have done a lot with that. Haiyan had everything going for it, and needed everything to become as strong as it did.
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Quoting 816. BaltimoreBrian:
Cody and Jordan starring in Alfonso Cuarón's "IKEA"

Official trailer below:



Brian, in Max's blog, you used the same video but said "Astro and Max" instead of Cody and Jordan. Which is it?
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Tropical blogger hair?

Eye of newt and
toe of frog
wool of bat
and tongue of dog.
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Quoting 849. BaltimoreBrian:
I still think the deep warm water helped strengthen Haiyan.
Deep warm water always helps. The point was that deep warm water is always present in the WPAC. Thus, the anomalous (excess) deep warm water heat that Dr. M was looking at was rather insignificant.

TCs are heat engines, but they can only consume so much fuel at a time. It takes time to tap into the fuel beneath the surface. What I am trying to tell you is, if we had had average TCHP/sub-surface heat there would've been enough sub-surface fuel to sustain Haiyan.
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Quoting 849. BaltimoreBrian:
I still think the deep warm water helped strengthen Haiyan.


That's completely ridiculous. Everyone knows that HAARP is the only possible way for a Cat 5 to exist in the modern age. Along with that lie, you also need snow, some Starbucks and a handful of tropical blogger hair. Then you get a Cat 5.

Not warm water. What planet are you from?

/sarcasm (for those who couldn't see it)
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I still think the deep warm water helped strengthen Haiyan.
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Assuming the hurricane season is over, this year will end with ~30 units of Accumulated Cyclone Energy. Where does that rank? The 5th lowest since reliable records began in 1950.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32858
Quoting 844. ColoradoBob1:
841. BaltimoreBrian

My thread at Newsvine since 2007 -

Please open an account , it's a great place to file things. We do the same thing. Link


Thanks I'll check that out! I automated a script to put my list together.
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Quoting 815. TropicalAnalystwx13:

But it couldn't have without its phenomenal upper-level environment! :D

Lol.
Yes...the upper level environment is what allowed this storm to become the perfect storm. The anomalous sub-surface heat was unnecessary because such a large pool of sub-surface heat naturally exists in the WPAC. Had the storm been moving at a slower pace, the additional sub-surface heat may have been useful.
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Quoting 834. Dakster:
Patrap - That live coral bleaching is no joke.
In the Keys it is caused by actual bleach, and other nasty chemicals, that are flushed down the drain. They have been observed by divers coming out of the dead reefs 25 years ago. Whatever sits in the cesspool goes down with low tide and gets absorbed into the porous coral stone. High tide floats it up offshore depending on location. It also gets pushed by new freshwater hydrostatic pressure. If everyone flushed organic materials down the drain the reef would still look normal. Some people think that when they stay at an expensive condo for a couple of days that the t wurds get shipped to Miami for recycling into green products like vegetable crackers. Maybe the mayor of Toronto could campaign in Georgetown. Worked for Marion Barry.
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841. BaltimoreBrian

My thread at Newsvine since 2007 -

Please open an account , it's a great place to file things. We do the same thing. Link
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Quoting 838. BahaHurican:


T
Coastal New Providence waters this afternoon ... northeasterly winds were driving some larger than average swells.


Hi Baha. Those high swells will arrive to PR and adjacent islands on Friday and be with us during the weekend.

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1005 PM AST THU NOV 14 2013

...HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELLS OF 7 TO 8 FEET BETWEEN 12 TO
15 SECONDS WILL INVADE THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES STARTING FRIDAY MORNING. THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
RESULT IN LARGE BREAKING WAVES BETWEEN 10 TO 14 FEET. AS A
RESULT....HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH FACING COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL
BE LIKELY AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS...SWIMMERS AND BEACHGOERS ARE
URGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AS ROUGH AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-VIZ001-150800-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SU.Y.0010.131115T0800Z-131117T1200Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
1005 PM AST THU NOV 14 2013

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM
AST SUNDAY...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM
AST SUNDAY.

* WAVES AND SURF...7 TO 8 FEET WAVES WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 10
TO 14 FEET.

* TIMING...FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL CREATE ROUGH SURF
CONDITIONS AND FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS. MINOR BEACH EROSION IS
POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

THE TIMES OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

AGUADILLA HARBOR: 6:44 AM AST FRIDAY MORNING AT 1.42 FEET.
6:32 PM AST FRIDAY EVENING AT 0.93 FEET.

ARECIBO HARBOR: 6:57 AM AST FRIDAY MORNING AT 1.92 FEET.
6:43 PM AST FRIDAY EVENING AT 1.25 FEET.

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 7:30 AM AST FRIDAY MORNING AT 1.79 FEET.
7:00 PM AST FRIDAY EVENING AT 1.18 FEET.

PALOMINOS ISLAND: 7:18 AM AST FRIDAY MORNING AT 1.89 FEET.
7:09 PM AST FRIDAY EVENING AT 1.38 FEET.

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 8:12 AM AST FRIDAY MORNING AT 1.49 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS SHOULD
STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE
BREAKING WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF
ALL SIZES INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE
LINE AND STAY OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
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831. Patrap

That report says we'll lose 30% of sea life in 100 years . But life doesn't work that way . We keep pulling at the threads ,pretty soon the shirt falls off our backs.
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Thank you very much Dakster!
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Baltimore Brian - Always a wealth of information and I enjoy your posts of the day for important events.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10804
Quoting 831. Patrap:
13 November 2013 Last updated at 20:13 ET

Emissions of CO2 driving rapid oceans 'acid trip'
Matt McGrath

By Matt McGrath
Environment correspondent, BBC News



Corals all over the world are threatened by rising rates of acidification in the oceans

The world's oceans are becoming acidic at an "unprecedented rate" and may be souring more rapidly than at any time in the past 300 million years.

In their strongest statement yet on this issue, scientists say acidification could increase by 170% by 2100.

They say that some 30% of ocean species are unlikely to survive in these conditions.

The researchers conclude that human emissions of CO2 are clearly to blame.

The study will be presented at global climate talks in Poland next week.

In 2012, over 500 of the world's leading experts on ocean acidification gathered in California. Led by the International Biosphere-Geosphere Programme, a review of the state of the science has now been published.

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You don't find a mollusc at the ph level expected for 2100, this is really quite a stunning fact”

Prof Jean-Pierre Gattuso
CNRS
This Summary for Policymakers states with "very high confidence" that increasing acidification is caused by human activities which are adding 24 million tonnes of CO2 to oceans every day.

Pickled waters
The addition of so much carbon has altered the chemistry of the waters.

Since the start of the industrial revolution, the waters have become 26% more acidic.

"This is the state of the art," said Prof Jean-Pierre Gattuso, from CNRS, the French national research agency.

"My colleagues have not found in the geological record, rates of change that are faster than the ones we see today."

What worries the scientists is the potential impact on many ocean species including corals.

Studies carried out at deep sea vents where the waters are naturally acidic thanks to CO2, indicate that around 30% of the ocean's biodiversity may be lost by the end of this century.

These vents may be a "window on the future" according to the researchers.



The oceans are thought to have absorbed up to half of the extra CO2 put into the atmosphere in the industrial age
This has lowered their pH by 0.1
pH is the measure of acidity and alkalinity
It usually ranges from pH 0 (very acidic) to pH 14 (very alkaline); 7 is neutral
Seawater is mildly alkaline with a "natural" pH of about 8.2
"You don't find a mollusc at the pH level expected for 2100, this is really quite a stunning fact," said Prof Gattuso.

"It's an imperfect window, only the ocean's acidity is increasing at these sites, they don't reflect the warming we will see this century.

"If you combine the two, it could be even more dramatic than what we see at CO2 vents."

The effect of acidity is currently being felt most profoundly felt in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans. These chilly waters hold more CO2 and increasing levels of the gas are turning them acidic more rapidly than the rest of the world.

The more acidic they become, the more damaging they are to the shells and skeletons of marine organisms.

The researchers say that by 2020, ten percent of the Arctic will be inhospitable to species that build their shells from calcium carbonate. By 2100 the entire Arctic will be a hostile environment.

These effects are already visible says Prof Gattuso.

"In the Southern Ocean, we already see corrosion of pteropods which are like sea snails, in the ocean we see corrosion of the shell.

"They are a key component in the food chain, they are eaten by fish, birds and whales, so if one element is going then there is a cascading impact on the whole food chain."

The authors warn that the economic impact of the losses from aquaculture could be huge - the global cost of the decline in molluscs could be $130bn by 2100 if emissions of CO2 continue on their current pathway.

Adding alkaline substances such as crushed limestone to the waters has been mooted as a potential way of mitigating the worst impacts of acidification. But Prof Gattuso says it would only have a limited effect.

"Maybe in bays which have a restricted exchange with open oceans it may work, it may give some local relief.

"But the latest research is showing that it is not really practical at a global scale. It is very expensive and very energy intensive."

Marine protection zones would also give some short term benefit, but the scientists say that in the long term only significant cuts in emissions will slow the progress of acidification.

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Another way soil becomes acidic is the use of high-nitrogen synthetic fertilizers. These fertilizers are usually ammonia-based, which increases soil acidity. Soil gets leached into creeks, then rivers until it gets into the oceans. This is why we now see red tide in the wrong time of year sometimes.
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T
Coastal New Providence waters this afternoon ... northeasterly winds were driving some larger than average swells.
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Quoting 829. ScottLincoln:

I won't say it proves it or disproves it. But I would say that for an arguably similar intensity storm, there is a pressure gradient right at the inner eyewall that at least does not discount the 960mb being consistent with lower 900mb range in the eye at landfall.


I agree. Again, we can only guess...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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