Super Typhoon Haiyan's Intensification and Unusually Warm Sub-Surface Waters

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:25 PM GMT on November 13, 2013

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A remarkable warming of the sub-surface Pacific waters east of the Philippines in recent decades, due to a shift in atmospheric circulation patterns and ocean currents that began in the early 1990s, could be responsible for the rapid intensification of Super Typhoon Haiyan. Hurricanes are heat engines, which means they take heat energy out of the ocean, and convert it to kinetic energy in the form of wind. It's well-known that tropical cyclones need surface water temperatures of at least 26.5°C (80°F) to maintain themselves, and that the warmer the water, and the deeper the warm water is, the stronger the storm can get. Deep warm water is important, since as a tropical cyclone tracks over the ocean, it stirs up cooler water from the depths, potentially reducing the intensity of the storm. When both Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita exploded into Category 5 hurricanes as they crossed over a warm eddy in the Gulf of Mexico with a lot of deep, warm water, the concept of the total heat energy available to fuel a hurricane--the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP)--became one that gained wide recognition. The Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines has the largest area of deep, warm water of anywhere on Earth, and these waters have historically fueled the highest incidence of Category 5 storms of anywhere on the planet. Super Typhoon Haiyan tracked over surface waters that were of near-average warmth, 29.5 - 30.5°C (85 - 87°F.) However, the waters at a depth of 100 meters (328 feet) beneath Haiyan during its rapid intensification phase were a huge 3°C above average, according to Professor I-I Lin of the Department of Atmospheric Science at the National Taiwan University. An analysis by the Japan Meteorological Agency for October showed ocean temperatures 4 - 5°C (7 - 9°F) above average during October (Figure 1). This analysis was from a model. When looking at actual measurements made by the Argo float data in early November, the temperatures in the layer 100 meters below the surface under Haiyan were about 3°C above average, not 4 - 5°C, according to Dr. Lin. As the typhoon stirred this unusually warm water to the surface, the storm was likely able to feed off the heat, allowing Haiyan to intensify into one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever observed.


Figure 1. Modeled departure of temperature from average at a depth of 100 meters in the West Pacific Ocean during October 2013, compared to a 1986 - 2008 average. The track and intensity of Super Typhoon Haiyan are overlaid. Haiyan passed directly over large areas of sub-surface water that were much above average in temperature, which likely contributed to the storm's explosive deepening. While this model showed 4 - 5°C departures from average in October, the actual values were closer to 3°C in early November, according to Argo float data. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Why was there such unusually warm sub-surface water?
The sub-surface waters east of the Philippines have warmed dramatically over the past twenty years. According to Pun et al. (2013), "Recent increase in high tropical cyclone heat potential area in the Western North Pacific Ocean", the depth to where ocean temperatures of at least 26°C (79°F) penetrates has increased by 17% since the early 1990s, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential has increased by 13%. The warm-up is due to an increase in the surface winds blowing across the region--the trade winds--which have caused a southward migration and strengthening of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) and the North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC). The strong trade winds have pushed a large amount of water up against the east coast of the Philippines in the past twenty years, resulting in a rate of sea level rise of 10 mm per year--more than triple the global average of 3.1 mm/yr (Figure 2.) This extra sea level rise contributed to the storm surge damage from Super Typhoon Haiyan. Sea level rise data from Legaspi in the Eastern Philippines shows a rise of about 305 mm (12 inches) since 1949. For comparison, global average sea level rose 7.5" (190 mm) since 1901. Part of the rise along the eastern Philippine coast is from tectonic processes--the subsidence of the Philippine plate under the Eurasian plate--but most of it is due to the stronger trade winds piling up warm water along the coast, and the fact that warmer waters expand, raising sea level.


Figure 2. Trend in sea level from satellite altimeter measurements in 1993 - 2010. Black lines are the Sea Surface Height (SSH) in cm from Rio et al. (2009.) Image credit: Qiu, B., and S. Chen, 2012, "Multidecadal sea level and gyre circulation variability in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean", Journal of Physical Oceanography 42.1 (2012): 193-206.

Why have the trade winds sped up?
The surface trade winds in the equatorial Pacific are part of the Walker Circulation--a pattern of rising and sinking air along the Equator that the El Nino/La Nina cycle influences. A strong Walker circulation means there is lower pressure over Indonesia, which pulls in more air at the surface along the Equator from the east, increasing the easterly trade winds. As these trade winds strengthen, they pull surface ocean waters away from South America, allowing cold water to upwell to the surface. This is a La Niña-like situation, which takes heat energy out of the atmosphere, putting it into the ocean, keeping global surface temperatures cooler than they would otherwise be. A weakened Walker circulation is the reverse, resulting in weaker trade winds, and a more El Niño-like situation with higher global surface temperatures. As long as the stronger Walker circulation that has been in place since the early 1990s holds, global surface temperatures should stay cooler than they otherwise would be, prolonging the slow-down in global surface warming that has received much attention this year. There may also be a greater chance of super typhoons and higher storm surges affecting the Philippines, due to the warmer sub-surface waters and re-arranged ocean currents. A 2013 paper by L’Heureux et al. notes that the climate models predict that the Walker circulation should weaken (a more El Niño-like situation)--the reverse of what has been observed the past twenty years. The researchers took the observed pressure patterns over the Pacific in recent decades and removed the atmospheric response to the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The resulting pattern they found showed a steady strengthening of the Walker circulation, in concert with global rising temperatures. So, are we seeing a failure of the climate models? Or is the recent speed-up of the Walker circulation a decades-long temporary "speed bump" in the climate system? Time will tell. It is worth pointing out that a just-released paper by British and Canadian researchers shows that the global surface temperature rise of the past 15 years has been greatly underestimated. As discussed at realclimate.org, "The reason is the data gaps in the weather station network, especially in the Arctic. If you fill these data gaps using satellite measurements, the warming trend is more than doubled in the widely-used HadCRUT4 data, and the much-discussed “warming pause” has virtually disappeared."

I appeared on PBS Newshour last night to discuss the linkages between stronger tropical cyclones and climate change, video here.

References
L’Heureux, Michelle L., Sukyoung Lee, and Bradfield Lyon, 2013, "Recent multidecadal strengthening of the Walker circulation across the tropical Pacific", Nature Climate Change 3.6 (2013): 571-576.

Pun, Iam‐Fei, I‐I. Lin, and Min‐Hui Lo, 2013, "Recent increase in high tropical cyclone heat potential area in the Western North Pacific Ocean", Geophysical Research Letters (2013).

Qiu, B., and S. Chen, 2012, "Multidecadal sea level and gyre circulation variability in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean", Journal of Physical Oceanography 42.1 (2012): 193-206.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 928. PanhandleChuck:



Y'all keep spewing the same garbage year after year and continually try to reason out why it is not happening the way you all have "predicted"

keep drinking the kool aid

So that's what you do when you receive a well worked explanation for a phenomenon. You troll.
You are a climate revisionist. Do you get paid? No? A stupid one at that, then.
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Quoting 978. cRRKampen:

Did you read them? Second link Klotzpach et al gives the disclaimer:
--
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future". Yogi Berra
--

In this case, I wouldn't state they were 'horribly wrong'. But: they were fortunately wrong. Anyway it's a trivbit. You're almost suggesting that because three instances were wrong, all are wrong. In fact this kind of forecast (hurricanes) have a much better than climate statistics scoring skill, it just isn't 100% but who wouldn't know that?

This Atlantic season is simply an opportunity for research directed at making those forecasts better.



Whatever, you keep telling yourself that. If its safe to say that 97% of climate scientists predict global warming, can I say that 97% of mets here in the US were flat out wrong about the 2013 tropical season. If we can't get a 3 month forecast correct, how the hell can climate scientists forecast the next 100 years. Pulleeeeeeze !! I'll stick to trying to get my 7 day correct and leave it at that. Thank you, come again !!
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What causes an ice age and glacial-interglacial cycles? Many factors contribute to climate variations, including changes in ocean and atmosphere circulation patterns, varying concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and even volcanic eruptions. The following discusses key factors in (1) initiating ice ages and (2) the timing of glacial-interglacial cycles.

One significant trigger in initiating ice ages is the changing positions of Earth’s ever-moving continents, which affect ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns. When plate-tectonic movement causes continents to be arranged such that warm water flow from the equator to the poles is blocked or reduced, ice sheets may arise and set another ice age in motion.

Today’s ice age most likely began when the land bridge between North and South America (Isthmus of Panama) formed and ended the exchange of tropical water between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, significantly altering ocean currents.

Glacials and interglacials occur in fairly regular repeated cycles. The timing is governed to a large degree by predictable cyclic changes in Earth’s orbit, which affect the amount of sunlight reaching different parts of Earth’s surface. The three orbital variations are: (1) changes in Earth’s orbit around the Sun (eccentricity), (2) shifts in the tilt of Earth’s axis (obliquity), and (3) the wobbling motion of Earth’s axis (precession).

Four fairly regular glacial-interglacial cycles occurred during the past 450,000 years. The shorter interglacial cycles (10,000 to 30,000 years) were about as warm as present and alternated with much longer (70,000 to 90,000 years) glacial cycles substantially colder than present. Notice the longer time with jagged cooling events dropping into the colder glacials followed by the faster abrupt temperature swings to the warmer interglacials. This graph combines several ice-core records from Antarctica and is modified from several sources including Evidence for Warmer Interglacials in East Antarctic Ice Cores, 2009, L.C. Sime and others. Note the shorter time scale of 450,000 years compared to the previous figure, as well as the colder temperatures, which are latitude-specific (e.g., Antartica, Alaska, Greenland) temperature changes inferred from the Antarctic ice cores (and not global averages).
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37831
A bit easier to see here...



Here it is animated.



Edit: just thought of how many invests must be saved on my computer.... 0_0
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Quoting 977. VR46L:


Oh well its something to look at ..








Morning VR.. :)
Something to watch indeed..
I was looking and it seems to be gaining momentum..
Somewhat.. :p
How's your weather today?
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Ice Ages – What are they and what causes them?


by Sandy Eldredge and Bob Biek

What is an ice age? An ice age is a long interval of time (millions to tens of millions of years) when global temperatures are relatively cold and large areas of the Earth are covered by continental ice sheets and alpine glaciers. Within an ice age are multiple shorter-term periods of warmer temperatures when glaciers retreat (called interglacials or interglacial cycles) and colder temperatures when glaciers advance (called glacials or glacial cycles).

At least five major ice ages have occurred throughout Earth’s history: the earliest was over 2 billion years ago, and the most recent one began approximately 3 million years ago and continues today (yes, we live in an ice age!).

Currently, we are in a warm interglacial that began about 11,000 years ago. The last period of glaciation, which is often informally called the “Ice Age,” peaked about 20,000 years ago. At that time, the world was on average probably about 10°F (5°C) colder than today, and locally as much as 40°F (22°C) colder.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37831
Quoting 960. CybrTeddy:



I recently moved so I'll have to dig through some boxes to find my text books from college. I graduated in 1992 and have meteorology and physical geography text books from school.
I know in both books we studied a lot of climate graphs from locations all over the world.

Major concerns (from memory) were deforestation and urbanization and their effects on global climate.
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Quoting 977. VR46L:


Oh well its something to look at ..








According to the MTCSWA... The COC should be around here, even though it is not closed quite yet.



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Quoting 969. Chucktown:


Three instances where scientists were horribly wrong - we are NOT always right

Link

Link

Link

Did you read them? Second link Klotzpach et al gives the disclaimer:
--
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future". Yogi Berra
--

In this case, I wouldn't state they were 'horribly wrong'. But: they were fortunately wrong. Anyway it's a trivbit. You're almost suggesting that because three instances were wrong, all are wrong. In fact this kind of forecast (hurricanes) have a much better than climate statistics scoring skill, it just isn't 100% but who wouldn't know that?

This Atlantic season is simply an opportunity for research directed at making those forecasts better.

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977. VR46L
Quoting 961. Torito:


Oh well its something to look at ..






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Ice core records show a 100,000 year cycle of glaciation, which Milankovitch Theory suggests is probably driven by orbital eccentricity due to the torque on earth's orbit from Jupiter and Venus.

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37831
Quoting 971. LargoFl:
I read something awhile ago, about saturn and jupiter somehow affecting our plantets orbit something like every 11,000 years or so,bringing on an ice age..we are due any time now..but until it does indeed happen, its all conjecture.


Jupiter and Saturn don't cause drastic changes to our orbit. Granted, a few billions years ago periodic alignments, known as orbital resonance, in Jupiter and Saturn caused Uranus and Neptune to fly out away from the sun to their current positions and caused the Late Heavy Bombardment in the inner solar system (leaving the Moon heavily cratered).
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98E does not have a completely closed COC yet..... But it is working on it.

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973. yoboi
Quoting 967. CybrTeddy:


Depends. On a local scale, yes certainly. On a global scale for long enough to be considered a climate change then no.*

*Not a climate expert, so don't take what I say as fact.



Thanks for explaining.....I am very confused.....
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Quoting 964. LargoFl:
interesting,some models take this to florida as a Low..could increase our rain chances one again..




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Quoting 960. CybrTeddy:

I read something awhile ago, about saturn and jupiter somehow affecting our plantets orbit something like every 11,000 years or so,bringing on an ice age..we are due any time now..but until it does indeed happen, its all conjecture.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37831
Quoting 968. Neapolitan:
Can you please provide links to places where I've either "jumped all over someone making a generalization on the other side" or am "...hunky-dory with insinuations that AGW was primarily responsible for Haiyan being such a historic storm"? Also, please define "jumped all over".

Thanks!


um hello (over here waving hand)..:)
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Quoting 960. CybrTeddy:



Three instances where scientists were horribly wrong - we are NOT always right

Link

Link

Link
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Quoting 962. AGWcreationists:
Spare me. Apparently you jump all over someone making a generalization on the other side, yet you are hunky-dory with insinuations that AGW was primarily responsible for Haiyan being such a historic storm.

Nice double standard.

Can you please provide links to places where I've either "jumped all over someone making a generalization on the other side" or am "...hunky-dory with insinuations that AGW was primarily responsible for Haiyan being such a historic storm"? Also, please define "jumped all over".

Thanks!
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13506
Quoting 963. yoboi:



Can weather affect Climate?????


Depends. On a local scale, yes certainly. On a global scale for long enough to be considered a climate change then no.*

*Not a climate expert, so don't take what I say as fact.
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Tomorrows TCFP.


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Quoting 964. LargoFl:
interesting,some models take this to florida as a Low..could increase our rain chances once again..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37831
Quoting 961. Torito:
interesting,some models take this to florida as a Low..could increase our rain chances one again..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37831
963. yoboi
Quoting 958. CybrTeddy:


You're only confusing yourself then. Climate affects weather, but climate is not weather.



Can weather affect Climate?????
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Quoting 955. Neapolitan:
Apparently an even better exercise in someone not understanding the attribution process.

Oh, well. Exercise over...
Spare me. Apparently you jump all over someone making a generalization on the other side, yet you are hunky-dory with insinuations that AGW was primarily responsible for Haiyan being such a historic storm.

Nice double standard.

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Quoting 957. Sfloridacat5:


When I was working on my degree in Geography, the biggest concern in climate change was the the fear of the next ice age.
I need to see if I can find my old Meteorology text book to see if it even has the term Global Warming in it.

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From usgs.gov...


Today’s Earthquake Fact

Moonquakes ("earthquakes" on the moon) do occur, but they happen less frequently and have smaller magnitudes than earthquakes on the Earth. It appears they are related to the tidal stresses associated with the varying distance between the Earth and Moon. They also occur at great depth, about halfway between the surface and the center of the moon.
Link
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Quoting 950. yoboi:



I am confused.....some days you say climate and weather are different and some days usually when a BIG weather event occurs then you say climate.....The message is not very clear....


You're only confusing yourself then. Climate affects weather, but climate is not weather.
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Quoting 920. LargoFl:
There has been an intense debate among leading scientists, government agencies and publications over whether the bigger threat is global warming or a new ice age. As we’ve previously noted, top researchers have feared an ice age – off and on – for more than 100 years.


When I was working on my degree in Geography, the biggest concern in climate change was the the fear of the next ice age.
I need to see if I can find my old Meteorology text book to see if it even has the term Global Warming in it.
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Which is better for mankind a slightly warmer Earth or another Ice Age? The Earth has been warmer than our current temps and it's been a whole lot colder. Co2 is not the only cause of climate change, a minor trace gas is not the only thing causing the climate to change. I really hope all the scientist are right about a warmer planet for the coming future, I really hate the cold and I doubt most of the people living in the Northern latitudes would enjoy a glacier forming in their back yards.
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Quoting 953. AGWcreationists:
Nice exercise in splitting hairs.
Apparently an even better exercise in someone not understanding the attribution process.

Oh, well. Exercise over...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13506
2.7 in OK.



DYFI estimates it at 4 as well.
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Quoting 946. Neapolitan:
Again--and this may possibly be the one-hundredth time this has been stated in this forum alone since Haiyan made landfall, as some seem very confused on what's really a very simple point--saying that climate change contributed to Haiyan's intensity is nowhere close to the same thing as saying it "caused" Haiyan. And so long as some maintain that perhaps intentional disconnect, I'm afraid they'll stay confused.
Nice exercise in splitting hairs.
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2.6 earthquake in IL.



DYFI estimates it at mag 4...
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Quoting 906. PanhandleChuck:


My point is simply that we are not big enough to change what we have been given. The earth's climate has always changed and always will no matter what we do as humans. Most AGW theologians will be making excuses in a few years about what they were proclaiming just like most liberals do when it does not come to fruition.
Yours is a very old argument based on religion, combined with the Machiavellian tactic of blaming your own logical error on those with whom you are debating.
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950. yoboi
Quoting 946. Neapolitan:
Again--and this may possibly be the one-hundredth time this has been stated in this forum alone since Haiyan made landfall, as some seem very confused on what's really a very simple point--saying that climate change contributed to Haiyan's intensity is nowhere close to the same thing as saying it "caused" Haiyan. And so long as some maintain that perhaps intentional disconnect, I'm afraid they'll stay confused.



I am confused.....some days you say climate and weather are different and some days usually when a BIG weather event occurs then you say climate.....The message is not very clear....
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Oh irony, look what reestablished itself in the Atlantic in November.


As compared to September 12th, 2013.
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Quoting 928. PanhandleChuck:



Y'all keep spewing the same garbage year after year and continually try to reason out why it is not happening the way you all have "predicted"

keep drinking the kool aid


That's interesting-- I always end up thinking this exact same thing whenever I read any of the Watts, Bastardi, Monckton, Goddard, Singer, Curry, etc. pseudo-skeptic dreck that gets linked in.
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Looks like a windy system.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20896
Quoting 944. AGWcreationists:
I guess you missed this from Dr. Master's previous blog entry:

"We can stop this madness"
At the annual United Nations talks on developing a global climate treaty, currently underway in Warsaw, Poland, Naderev Saño, the chief representative of the Philippines at the conference, said on Monday: “What my country is going through as a result of this extreme climate event is madness; the climate crisis is madness. We can stop this madness right here in Warsaw.” Saño promised to undergo a hunger strike in solidarity with the storm victims until “a meaningful outcome is in sight.”


If that isn't an effort to tie Haiyan's intensity to 'global warming', I don't know what is. It wasn't Dr. Masters, but it was included in his blog.
Again--and this may possibly be the one-hundredth time this has been stated in this forum alone since Haiyan made landfall, as some seem very confused on what's really a very simple point--saying that climate change contributed to Haiyan's intensity is nowhere close to the same thing as saying it "caused" Haiyan. And so long as some maintain that perhaps intentional disconnect, I'm afraid they'll stay confused.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13506
Quoting 858. TomTaylor:
Heat and moisture are required, clearly. The point is Haiyan had more sub-surface heat available to it than it needed. Therefore, the anomalous sub-surface heat Masters' is looking at was probably largely irrelevant.

The true reason Haiyan was able to attain such spectacular structural perfection was because of an ideal upper-level environment. Low latitude may have also allowed it to resist an EWRC since the Coriolis parameter decreases as you approach the equator.

An exceedingly favorable upper air environment was undoubtably present in Haiyan's case and there was no way he would have been able to become as strong as he did without it. However, the day prior to the max intensity day, Haiyan's upper air environment was slightly less than ideal with light upper level shear from an upper level anticyclone restricting Haiyan's outflow to his east and northeast.





Even with this light shear, Haiyan was doing pretty well for himself at an analyzed sustained category five intensity. Of course, the relaxation of this light upper level shear allowed Haiyan to even further strengthen, but considering all of the more intense tropical cyclones need favorable upper air conditions, I have not seen anything to set Haiyan's case apart.

It's also worth noting that Haiyan underwent eyewall replacement twice prior to landfall in the Philippines. The first was from the initial pinhole eye to the eye size above, and the second was from that eye to the slightly larger one that was sustained during maximum intensity. In addition, there were hints that Haiyan was about to undergo a third eyewall replacement cycle right at landfall. It is possible that the lower latitude did fortify Haiyan from the longer and more unwieldy eyewall replacement cycles often observed in the WPac, but Haiyan certainly was not resistant to the cycle and underwent eyewall replacement like any other intense tropical cyclone.
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Quoting 935. Neapolitan:
(FWIW, of course, no one--least of all Dr. Masters--said that Haiyan was "caused" by global warming; where did you hear such a thing?)
I guess you missed this from Dr. Master's previous blog entry:

"We can stop this madness"
At the annual United Nations talks on developing a global climate treaty, currently underway in Warsaw, Poland, Naderev Saño, the chief representative of the Philippines at the conference, said on Monday: “What my country is going through as a result of this extreme climate event is madness; the climate crisis is madness. We can stop this madness right here in Warsaw.” Saño promised to undergo a hunger strike in solidarity with the storm victims until “a meaningful outcome is in sight.”


If that isn't an effort to tie Haiyan's intensity to 'global warming', I don't know what is. It wasn't Dr. Masters, but it was included in his blog.
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Quoting 906. PanhandleChuck:


My point is simply that we are not big enough to change what we have been given. The earth's climate has always changed and always will no matter what we do as humans. Most AGW theologians will be making excuses in a few years about what they were proclaiming just like most liberals do when it does not come to fruition.


You are very much incorrect. We have been having considerable impacts on our environment. Or perhaps you're too young to remember things like acid rain and the ozone hole.

Historically speaking, it really doesn't take a whole lot to push the planet out of equilibrium. A global temperature change of 2C (positive or negative) have been associated with extinction events due to climate changes. In fact, there's evidence that the last major climate change almost wiped our species out entirely.

And you need to get some new talking points. There is not one single climate scientist that denies that the climate hasn't changed before. In fact, that's one of the sources of information used by scientists to determine how the climate responds to different forcings. The problem isn't that the climate changes. The problem is that our civilization has flourished as a result of a fairly benign and stable climate, and there is every indication that our activities are destabilizing that climate at a rate not seen outside of global calamities (asteroid impacts, supervolcanoes, etc.).

Rapid climate changes cause problems. It's unlikely to end the human race, but only a complete idiot would think that a change in climate would NOT impact us. All it would take is a couple of severe persistent droughts in a few key agricultural regions to make things get ugly pretty quick.

Lastly, you seem to be confused between science and religion. There are thousands of scientists (going back to nearly 200 years ago) that have collected massive amounts of research, data, and observations that indicate that the planet is warming due to increased greenhouse gases (mainly as a result of human activity).

When compared to the current body of climate science, your arguments are severely lacking. Your derisive tone towards climate science indicates that your really just another denier with absolutely nothing besides your own faith to back up you personal beliefs. Ironically, that sounds more like a religion to me.

When you get some facts to back up your claims (preferably in the form of reviewed science research), I'll be all ears. Until then, you might want to go to one of the nutter sites like WUWT. You'll get a lot better reception to your version of "science" there.
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Patrap, I have this terrible feeling that that guy that got canned for claiming there would be near 10,000 deaths is closer than the president in the estimation...... I give that man more credit anyways, as he was there to witness the storm at it's worst. I really hope that the numbers are not that bad, but I just have that feeling.... :(
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Quoting 933. bjrabbit:
I was really enjoying this blog entry until it took the usual left turn in justifying global warming as a cause for the recent Typhoon and everything other weather phenomenon.

The last couple paragraphs just leave me picturing a man in a swollen, raging river hanging onto whatever branch that he can to stay alive.
The Global Warming topic has come up more frequently due Haiyan to be sure, regardless of left or right. Your man in the river statement is a bit dramatic.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20896
NAM 12Z HR 60,63,66


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Philippines: Typhoon Haiyan Situation Report No. 8 (as of 14 November 2013) - See more at: http://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/philippine s-typhoon-haiyan-situation-report-no-8-14-november -2013#sthash.pGspGjKp.dpuf



HIGHLIGHTS

• The number of affected people has increased to 11.8 million. Typhoon Haiyan left 4,460 dead, 921,200 people displaced and 243,600 houses destroyed.

• Fuel in Tacloban City is expected to run out in days.

• Three logistics hubs are now operational in Samar and Leyte (Tacloban City, Guiuan and Ormoc City). Truck shortage and blocked roads continue to delay relief operations.

• The Haiyan Action Plan is 19 per cent funded ($58 million). As of 15 November, the Humanitarian Country Team will convene daily donor briefings in Manila.

UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs:
To learn more about OCHA's activities, please visit http://unocha.org/.

- See more at: ReliefWEB

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
Rough weather possible fairly large region of the U.S.

Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 am CST Friday Nov 15 2013


Valid 171200z - 181200z


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over a portion of the Tennessee and Ohio
valleys and Great Lakes areas...


...


A shortwave trough with attendant strong upper jet embedded within
base of the synoptic trough will eject negatively tilted through the
middle MS and Ohio valleys Sunday...reaching a portion of the northestern U.S.
Toward the end of the period. This feature will induce a surface cyclone
that is forecast to undergo significant deepening as it moves northeastward
from the upper MS valley into the Great Lakes Sunday afternoon. Cold
front trailing from the low will sweep through the middle MS...Ohio and
Tennessee valleys...while a warm front lifts northward through the Ohio Valley and
Great Lakes.


..OH and Tennessee Valley regions...


A strong 50+ knots southwesterly low level jet will advect partially modified Gulf air
with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s into the Ohio Valley and
Great Lakes region with middle 60s likely farther south across the Tennessee
Valley area. The moisture return will be accompanied by widespread
clouds that will limit diabatic heating of the boundary layer in
much of pre-frontal warm sector. Moreover...areas of showers and a
few thunderstorms will probably be ongoing over a portion of the Ohio
Valley warm sector. Thus the primary destabilization mechanism will
probably be moisture advection...but surface based instability will
likely remain somewhat marginal /MLCAPE at or below 500 j/kg/...especially
with northward and eastward extent into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.


Nevertheless...the deepening cyclone will be accompanied by an
increase in frontogenetic forcing along the cold front sweeping eastward
through the Ohio Valley. Storms may increase during the day along
pre-frontal warm conveyor belt beneath diffluent upper jet exit
region. Other storms will initiate along strengthening cold front.
Potential will exist for pre-frontal storms to develop supercell
structures given strength of vertical shear and size of hodographs
along low level jet...but extent of any tornado threat will depend on degree
of boundary layer destabilization. Otherwise...storms will likely
evolve into lines along the cold front with a threat for widespread
damaging wind as the activity develops eastward through the Ohio and Tennessee
Valley regions.


..NY and PA...
Storms will eventually outpace the moist axis Sunday night and
encounter much weaker instability as they approach the northestern states.
However...at least a modest threat for isolated damaging wind with
remaining low topped convection cannot be ruled out late this
period.


.Dial.. 11/15/2013
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20896
Quoting 933. bjrabbit:
I was really enjoying this blog entry until it took the usual left turn in justifying global warming as a cause for the recent Typhoon and everything other weather phenomenon.

The blog does not say that global warming "caused" Haiyan. There is no way to determine if a single event is "caused" by climate change/global warming. But you can describe changes in the magnitude and frequency of those events.

Dr. Masters was pointing out that climate change contributed to factors that can make storms like Haiyan to be more likely.

This is an important distinction that many seem to not understand, or simply ignore.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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