Super Typhoon Haiyan's Intensification and Unusually Warm Sub-Surface Waters

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:25 PM GMT on November 13, 2013

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A remarkable warming of the sub-surface Pacific waters east of the Philippines in recent decades, due to a shift in atmospheric circulation patterns and ocean currents that began in the early 1990s, could be responsible for the rapid intensification of Super Typhoon Haiyan. Hurricanes are heat engines, which means they take heat energy out of the ocean, and convert it to kinetic energy in the form of wind. It's well-known that tropical cyclones need surface water temperatures of at least 26.5°C (80°F) to maintain themselves, and that the warmer the water, and the deeper the warm water is, the stronger the storm can get. Deep warm water is important, since as a tropical cyclone tracks over the ocean, it stirs up cooler water from the depths, potentially reducing the intensity of the storm. When both Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita exploded into Category 5 hurricanes as they crossed over a warm eddy in the Gulf of Mexico with a lot of deep, warm water, the concept of the total heat energy available to fuel a hurricane--the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP)--became one that gained wide recognition. The Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines has the largest area of deep, warm water of anywhere on Earth, and these waters have historically fueled the highest incidence of Category 5 storms of anywhere on the planet. Super Typhoon Haiyan tracked over surface waters that were of near-average warmth, 29.5 - 30.5°C (85 - 87°F.) However, the waters at a depth of 100 meters (328 feet) beneath Haiyan during its rapid intensification phase were a huge 3°C above average, according to Professor I-I Lin of the Department of Atmospheric Science at the National Taiwan University. An analysis by the Japan Meteorological Agency for October showed ocean temperatures 4 - 5°C (7 - 9°F) above average during October (Figure 1). This analysis was from a model. When looking at actual measurements made by the Argo float data in early November, the temperatures in the layer 100 meters below the surface under Haiyan were about 3°C above average, not 4 - 5°C, according to Dr. Lin. As the typhoon stirred this unusually warm water to the surface, the storm was likely able to feed off the heat, allowing Haiyan to intensify into one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever observed.


Figure 1. Modeled departure of temperature from average at a depth of 100 meters in the West Pacific Ocean during October 2013, compared to a 1986 - 2008 average. The track and intensity of Super Typhoon Haiyan are overlaid. Haiyan passed directly over large areas of sub-surface water that were much above average in temperature, which likely contributed to the storm's explosive deepening. While this model showed 4 - 5°C departures from average in October, the actual values were closer to 3°C in early November, according to Argo float data. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Why was there such unusually warm sub-surface water?
The sub-surface waters east of the Philippines have warmed dramatically over the past twenty years. According to Pun et al. (2013), "Recent increase in high tropical cyclone heat potential area in the Western North Pacific Ocean", the depth to where ocean temperatures of at least 26°C (79°F) penetrates has increased by 17% since the early 1990s, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential has increased by 13%. The warm-up is due to an increase in the surface winds blowing across the region--the trade winds--which have caused a southward migration and strengthening of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) and the North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC). The strong trade winds have pushed a large amount of water up against the east coast of the Philippines in the past twenty years, resulting in a rate of sea level rise of 10 mm per year--more than triple the global average of 3.1 mm/yr (Figure 2.) This extra sea level rise contributed to the storm surge damage from Super Typhoon Haiyan. Sea level rise data from Legaspi in the Eastern Philippines shows a rise of about 305 mm (12 inches) since 1949. For comparison, global average sea level rose 7.5" (190 mm) since 1901. Part of the rise along the eastern Philippine coast is from tectonic processes--the subsidence of the Philippine plate under the Eurasian plate--but most of it is due to the stronger trade winds piling up warm water along the coast, and the fact that warmer waters expand, raising sea level.


Figure 2. Trend in sea level from satellite altimeter measurements in 1993 - 2010. Black lines are the Sea Surface Height (SSH) in cm from Rio et al. (2009.) Image credit: Qiu, B., and S. Chen, 2012, "Multidecadal sea level and gyre circulation variability in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean", Journal of Physical Oceanography 42.1 (2012): 193-206.

Why have the trade winds sped up?
The surface trade winds in the equatorial Pacific are part of the Walker Circulation--a pattern of rising and sinking air along the Equator that the El Nino/La Nina cycle influences. A strong Walker circulation means there is lower pressure over Indonesia, which pulls in more air at the surface along the Equator from the east, increasing the easterly trade winds. As these trade winds strengthen, they pull surface ocean waters away from South America, allowing cold water to upwell to the surface. This is a La Niña-like situation, which takes heat energy out of the atmosphere, putting it into the ocean, keeping global surface temperatures cooler than they would otherwise be. A weakened Walker circulation is the reverse, resulting in weaker trade winds, and a more El Niño-like situation with higher global surface temperatures. As long as the stronger Walker circulation that has been in place since the early 1990s holds, global surface temperatures should stay cooler than they otherwise would be, prolonging the slow-down in global surface warming that has received much attention this year. There may also be a greater chance of super typhoons and higher storm surges affecting the Philippines, due to the warmer sub-surface waters and re-arranged ocean currents. A 2013 paper by L’Heureux et al. notes that the climate models predict that the Walker circulation should weaken (a more El Niño-like situation)--the reverse of what has been observed the past twenty years. The researchers took the observed pressure patterns over the Pacific in recent decades and removed the atmospheric response to the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The resulting pattern they found showed a steady strengthening of the Walker circulation, in concert with global rising temperatures. So, are we seeing a failure of the climate models? Or is the recent speed-up of the Walker circulation a decades-long temporary "speed bump" in the climate system? Time will tell. It is worth pointing out that a just-released paper by British and Canadian researchers shows that the global surface temperature rise of the past 15 years has been greatly underestimated. As discussed at realclimate.org, "The reason is the data gaps in the weather station network, especially in the Arctic. If you fill these data gaps using satellite measurements, the warming trend is more than doubled in the widely-used HadCRUT4 data, and the much-discussed “warming pause” has virtually disappeared."

I appeared on PBS Newshour last night to discuss the linkages between stronger tropical cyclones and climate change, video here.

References
L’Heureux, Michelle L., Sukyoung Lee, and Bradfield Lyon, 2013, "Recent multidecadal strengthening of the Walker circulation across the tropical Pacific", Nature Climate Change 3.6 (2013): 571-576.

Pun, Iam‐Fei, I‐I. Lin, and Min‐Hui Lo, 2013, "Recent increase in high tropical cyclone heat potential area in the Western North Pacific Ocean", Geophysical Research Letters (2013).

Qiu, B., and S. Chen, 2012, "Multidecadal sea level and gyre circulation variability in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean", Journal of Physical Oceanography 42.1 (2012): 193-206.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 73. washingtonian115:
"Why shouldn't they pay for that damage?" Because not everyone can afford it?.When I go out to shop they have already put taxes on plastic bags and when you have a big family I do it really adds up in the end...


Have you considered investing in a few reusable canvas bags? A good canvas bag will last pretty much forever. Keep a few in the car and you're always prepared to shop, bag-tax-free.

As for the "people" having to pay for the damage caused by the polluters... we will pay eventually no matter what. Either we tax them for it now and clean it up now, or we let them off the hook and we pay for it collectively later.

At least in the US, we don't like to leave big environmental messes lying around. So, either the company who did it pays... or, if that company decides to take the slimeball approach and "restructure" themselves out of liability, then we ALL pay via the Superfund program.

Either way, we pay.
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Post 62

Stay with me for a moment here and let's think this thing through.

The scientific evidence says that we are warming the climate primarily through the burning of fossil fuels. Further, the science says that at a certain point (2C) this will become a real problem for humanity. It then follows that those that dig up, pump, frack, refine, etc. are causing real damage with their product.

Why shouldn't they pay for that damage?

First off that is your conclusion that the warming is caused by fossil fuels...it certainly isn't mine. I don't want to bring up "all" the old arguments, like the last 16 years, climate models&gate, ice at the poles etc. All I am saying is maybe you might have better reception for your theories if there was "fair" distribution of the money that they would garnish from a carbon tax...and they ( the people ) would benefit too.

I think "most" people know that burning fossil fuels is not a good thing and maybe there would be better reception to your plan if people viewed this from a natural resource view... that we need to protect our resources for future generations. I am totally against fracking and drilling in waters so deep that you can easily lose control of the situation. The oil companies should be responsible for damages they cause.

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Quoting PlazaRed:

Nea we as you know have to take everything this chappie says, as total and absolute rubbish.
Which for some reason he is emitting from his mouth, pen, computer, or any other available orifice which is basically functioning to him at this time, in his deluded life.
Having said that he might be quite "fun," to have around at a party, as a delicate, derelict scapegoat of what isn't going to be, or never had a chance anyway?
I personally have never encountered the entity but he seems like an unsavoury type and best avoided!
I suggest that every body put him on ignore for at least the remaining term of this incarnation.
By he way, a trifle off topic but pertinent:-
Mien Gott Donde esta Grother?


I have Scott on ignore, its hard to watch forecast after forecast of hurricanes hitting florida on the 360 hour models and it never come true. Plus now the El Nino and coldest December ever forecast which will bust. SMH. :o)
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Quoting 63. Patrap:
Mien Gott Donde esta Grother?

Ich kann das sagen, ich kann nicht besttigen noch verneinen die Existenz eines Lauern Grothar. Sie haben das als aktuelle Bewertung der Situation bekannt.


Hmm, Pat, nice try to speak german, although I had some struggles to figure out what you've meant. May I try to translate?

OMG, Grothar, where are you? I can tell you I can't neither confirm nor negate that Gro still is lurking. You may take this as an assessment of the present situation.

Edit: Of course I hope he's still around!
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Quoting 62. Birthmark:


Stay with me for a moment here and let's think this thing through.


The scientific evidence says that we are warming the climate primarily through the burning of fossil fuels. Further, the science says that at a certain point (2C) this will become a real problem for humanity. It then follows that those that dig up, pump, frack, refine, etc. are causing real damage with their product.

Why shouldn't they pay for that damage?


From the 2/C point of view, about 5/F for the USA.
There is no point in contemplating this as a base level of temp rises as it is eventually going to be surpassed.
The base line I would say but I might be in the firing line for it will be 5/c or about 11/F.
The evidence points to a rapid and constant continuing increase in use of fossil fuels which result in more CO2.
So simply if I put myself hypothetically in a closed room with no air access, there is a car with the engine running in there with me!
Its a modern car with low emissions. This means I will live a few more minutes before I suffocate.
Hell of a future as the chappie from the Philippine's, wept over at that conference.

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Quoting 73. washingtonian115:
"Why shouldn't they pay for that damage?" Because not everyone can afford it?.When I go out to shop they have already put taxes on plastic bags and when you have a big family I do it really adds up in the end...

Affordability is really a different issue than whether the fossil fuel industry should pay for the damage they cause.

(Btw, Fee and Dividend would negate your personal worry.)
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Quoting 509. JohnLonergan:
Good news of the day:

Climate Deniers Must Pay $80,000 For ‘Not Acting Reasonably,’ Court Rules

http://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/ 11/SevenStation2-555x392.jpg


A New Zealand group dedicated to downplaying the existence of climate change has been ordered to pay $80,000 in costs for bringing a “faulty” lawsuit that had sought to invalidate data that proved the country’s temperatures were on the rise.
The New Zealand Court of Appeals ordered The New Zealand Climate Education Trust — a group that seeks to “reflect the truth about climate change and the exaggerated claims that have been made about anthropogenic global warming” — to pay fees to the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, an environmental science research firm. The lawsuit claimed that NIWA was unethically and intentionally misinterpreting temperature data to promote the idea that climate change was happening.
But Justice Forrest Miller ruled that the Trust was “mounting a crusade against NIWA and was not acting reasonably,” according to a report on Radio New Zealand.

More at ThinkProgress ...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting 56. whatsup99037:
Post 13

(Yes, we're alarmists. But it's okay if you don't like us all that much; your children and grandchildren will thank us some day.)

You mean when were all financial slaves of the state paying those high carbon taxes they will place on everything?
Which will, by the way, not solve the problem, but only redistribute wealth and reward governments for their theft.

I have a better idea...if there going to steal that money anyway... than rather give it to other countries it should be used "ONLY"to subsidize alternative forms of energy for everyone. Forget this rigged carbon based theft scheme.


Only if you believe the current business model of generating electricity holds sway. Now, if perhaps we decentralized the generation of electricity from a (relatively) few corporate entities and instead allowed for incentives for solar generation, combined with resale of any excess electricity produced, to electricity companies - that could put a dent in things. Of course, that depends on which state you live in.

Or better yet. Homeowners lease solar panels. The company charges the homeowner a lower fee than they are currently paying for electricity, with the agreement that the company sells the excess electricity to the local power company. This business model is proving particularly attractive and effective.

Edit: Fixed link
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Quoting 71. CybrTeddy:


"Only premium members may access this area. Please login or register now!"

So nope. :p

Also Bastardi has been screaming El Nino as nearly as often as the climate models seem to want to, but it's simply not going to happen with the PDO the way it is right now. Cool-neutral conditions will likely continue to persist in 2014 is my forecast.


We are trending to a +PNA tho.
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"It will without doubt have come to your Lordship's knowledge that a considerable change of climate, inexplicable at present to us, must have taken place in the Circumpolar Regions, by which the severity of the cold that has for centuries past enclosed the seas in the high northern latitudes in an impenetrable barrier of ice has been during the last two years, greatly abated.

(This) affords ample proof that new sources of warmth have been opened and give us leave to hope that the Arctic Seas may at this time be more accessible than they have been for centuries past, and that discoveries may now be made in them not only interesting to the advancement of science but also to the future intercourse of mankind and the commerce of distant nations."

President of the Royal Society, London, to the Admiralty, 20th November, 1817

The Top of the World:
Is the North Pole Turning to Water?

by John L. Daly
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18Z Nam is really hammering C FL Friday afternoon & Friday Night with several inches of rain.

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Thanks for the update,

For anyone who is cold today, I must rub this in........

Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 11:53 AM PST on November 13, 2013
Clear
91 °F
Clear
Humidity: 8%
Dew Point: 23 °F
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Quoting 67. Birthmark:

Evidence for the portion I bolded?
if you know anything about geology,see what the last ice age did in north america,most of what we call north america was buried under several Thousand feet of ice..the rocks tell the story,so any ..hmmm warming of the earth preventing this return IS a good thing..perhaps we humans should be more concerned with the earths orbit and any changes to it in the years to come..either way warm or cold..we here today in our lifetimes,short as they are,wont see it happen..hopefully...then again we must remember Europe this past winter and spring..ask them how cold it was..rivers froze solid..people died...Im waiting to see how Europe fares this coming winter and spring.
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"Why shouldn't they pay for that damage?" Because not everyone can afford it?.When I go out to shop they have already put taxes on plastic bags and when you have a big family like I do it really adds up in the end...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16979
Quoting 62. Birthmark:

Stay with me for a moment here and let's think this thing through.

The scientific evidence says that we are warming the climate primarily through the burning of fossil fuels. Further, the science says that at a certain point (2C) this will become a real problem for humanity. It then follows that those that dig up, pump, frack, refine, etc. are causing real damage with their product.

Why shouldn't they pay for that damage?


I have a lil experience in refining, and Offshore production as Ive done both.

I worked as a Union Refractory Worker maintaining and building Catcrackers for Shell in the late 70's as well as offshore Platform Service Work for Chevron n the mid 90's.

I can assure you this, your assessment is correct.
To underplay the Global Clout of the Energy Industry is like denying Nuclear Weapons exist.

Govt's come and go, but Shell and Exxon are Masters of this Planet.

And BP,and all the others no matter what company guise they use, and no matter how many cozy FB stories they post.

Beware them and their Congressional Powers that do their bidding.

Time is way past being on the Humans side.

I got in their wallets as asbestosis killed my father, from working in the industry, not WW-2, not raising me, but asbestos materials they said, "ahh, don't worry bout it, a Paper mask will do jus fine".

I'm a dead man walking for my exposure.

So if I go out on a tangent a tad sometimes.

Time is not on my side.

So there it iz.


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By: Patrap, 12:25 PM CDT on September 21, 2009


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting 68. StormTrackerScott:


I see your graphs but JB's video tells a different story. Can you access the video I posted?


"Only premium members may access this area. Please login or register now!"

So nope. :p

Also Bastardi has been screaming El Nino as nearly as often as the climate models seem to want to, but it's simply not going to happen with the PDO the way it is right now. Cool-neutral conditions will likely continue to persist in 2014 is my forecast.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24033
Quoting 69. LargoFl:
Humanity has always been prospering during the warm periods and suffering during the cold ones. The climate has never been and will never be stable

Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov

So, if the Earth's surface temperature increases to 75C we'll live like kings! Right?
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Humanity has always been prospering during the warm periods and suffering during the cold ones. The climate has never been and will never be stable

Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov
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Quoting 65. CybrTeddy:


There has been little, if any, real warming of the ENSO in the last few weeks. It's been hanging neutral for a while now.






I see your graphs but JB's video tells a different story. Can you access the video I posted?



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Quoting 64. LargoFl:
the earth over its history has went thru very warm periods and extremely cold periods,today we sit inbetween the very cold periods,so any warming now is a good thing,perhaps slowing down the coming cold period...if human lifespan was not 100 year but several thousand..we would know whats coming.

Evidence for the portion I bolded?
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Quoting 63. Patrap:
Mien Gott Donde esta Grother?

Ich kann das sagen, ich kann nicht bestätigen noch verneinen die Existenz eines Lauern Grothar. Sie haben das als aktuelle Bewertung der Situation bekannt.


I can interpret the first line ..
And I wish I knew ...
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Quoting 11. StormTrackerScott:
Over the last 60 days we have seen the ENSO regions warm faster than any period in history and I would tend to think this also helped Haiyan in her intensification. JB infact did a video on this aspect this morning which I thought of Haiyan when I was watching the video. I can't post it on here because WxBell won't give anyone access to view unless a member.

View the first 2 minutes. Very telling to what's going on all across the Globe.

Link


There's been some level of warming, but nothing that substantial to make that claim. ENSO is level at a neutral phase.



Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24033
the earth over its history has went thru very warm periods and extremely cold periods,today we sit inbetween the very cold periods,so any warming now is a good thing,perhaps slowing down the coming cold period...if human lifespan was not 100 year but several thousand..we would know whats coming.
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Mien Gott Donde esta Grother?

Ich kann das sagen, ich kann nicht bestätigen noch verneinen die Existenz eines Lauern Grothar. Sie haben das als aktuelle Bewertung der Situation bekannt.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting 56. whatsup99037:
Post 13

(Yes, we're alarmists. But it's okay if you don't like us all that much; your children and grandchildren will thank us some day.)

You mean when were all financial slaves of the state paying those high carbon taxes they will place on everything?
Which will, by the way, not solve the problem, but only redistribute wealth and reward governments for their theft.

I have a better idea...if there going to steal that money anyway... than rather give it to other countries it should be used "ONLY"to subsidize alternative forms of energy for everyone. Forget this rigged carbon based theft scheme.

Stay with me for a moment here and let's think this thing through.

The scientific evidence says that we are warming the climate primarily through the burning of fossil fuels. Further, the science says that at a certain point (2C) this will become a real problem for humanity. It then follows that those that dig up, pump, frack, refine, etc. are causing real damage with their product.

Why shouldn't they pay for that damage?
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1900 Theta-E description is a spot on delivery of Haiyan.

One can have the flue fully open aloft, but if the TCHP ain't dere below, you ain't gonna sustain a Storm like we saw, with Haiyan, and Rita, and K, as the Deep, sustained Pool below,or the depth of the 26C isotherm the juice,or Mojo to create a Super "Spectacular Devastating Typhoon, and the trend isnt going to magically shut down globally.

Were seeing the shifts in all phases of climate. With More than jus STT's at play. If you take the time to note the thousands of papers on Tree Line movement, Species depletion, extinctions, Farming trends, you'd be aghast at what we do know.

Relive the Philippines.

Haste is most needed.

Now.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting 56. whatsup99037:
Post 13

(Yes, we're alarmists. But it's okay if you don't like us all that much; your children and grandchildren will thank us some day.)

You mean when were all financial slaves of the state paying those high carbon taxes they will place on everything?
Which will, by the way, not solve the problem, but only redistribute wealth and reward governments for their theft.

I have a better idea...if there going to steal that money anyway... than rather give it to other countries it should be used "ONLY"to subsidize alternative forms of energy for everyone. Forget this rigged carbon based theft scheme.



Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
Quoting 2. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks, Dr. Masters.

I think I'll go with the unusually intense jet stream north of Haiyan, providing great ventilation, as the culprit for its rapid intensification phase and subsequent peak intensity. Atmospheric conditions always trump thermodynamics.


That's pretty much exactly what happened with Bopha last year as I recall, although to a more extreme extent with Haiyan.

Not seeing much on the GFS over the next 10 days in the Pacific, so I guess that means the Pacific is about to take a breather after having produced 7 Category 3+ typhoons in the last few weeks.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24033
30's and 40' for central florida next wens?........
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Quoting 48. Neapolitan:
A few days ago, JB said that Haiyan grew as strong as it did because the ocean waters east of the Philippines hadn't moved in many years, so they'd had lots of time to sit and absorb solar heat. Did he happen to cover his nascent theory of "Solar Heat Amplification Due To The Mysterious And Somehow Entirely Undetected Until Now Cessation Of The Western Pacific North Equatorial Current" again in today's video?

Nea we as you know have to take everything this chappie says, as total and absolute rubbish.
Which for some reason he is emitting from his mouth, pen, computer, or any other available orifice which is basically functioning to him at this time, in his deluded life.
Having said that he might be quite "fun," to have around at a party, as a delicate, derelict scapegoat of what isn't going to be, or never had a chance anyway?
I personally have never encountered the entity but he seems like an unsavoury type and best avoided!
I suggest that every body put him on ignore for at least the remaining term of this incarnation.
By he way, a trifle off topic but pertinent:-
Mien Gott Donde esta Grother?
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Post 13

(Yes, we're alarmists. But it's okay if you don't like us all that much; your children and grandchildren will thank us some day.)

You mean when were all financial slaves of the state paying those high carbon taxes they will place on everything?
Which will, by the way, not solve the problem, but only redistribute wealth and reward governments for their theft.

I have a better idea...if there going to steal that money anyway... than rather give it to other countries it should be used "ONLY"to subsidize alternative forms of energy for everyone. Forget this rigged carbon based theft scheme.

And by the way I have family that believe like you do and I haven't disowned them yet...lol
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Freeze Warning

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1150 AM EST WED NOV 13 2013

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR THE MAINLAND
COUNTIES...

.A FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE MAINLAND
COUNTIES.

NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-140500-
/O.CON.KMHX.FZ.W.0008.131114T0300Z-131114T1400Z/
WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE-CRAVEN-
PAMLICO-CARTERET-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLYMOUTH...COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...
RIVER ROAD...NEW BERN...HAVELOCK...VANCEBORO...ORIENTAL...
ALLIANCE...BAYBORO...ARAPAHOE...MINNESOTT BEACH...VANDEMERE...
STONEWALL...MOREHEAD CITY...BEAUFORT...EMERALD ISLE...NEWPORT
1150 AM EST WED NOV 13 2013

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM EST THURSDAY...

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

* TIMING...TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...LINGERING CROPS AND OTHER TEMPERATURE SENSITIVE
VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED OR KILLED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$
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Quoting 50. yoboi:



What is better....To undercharge your electric car or overcharge your electric car???? If you underestimate that can be as bad as overestimate......

What is bad is being right for the wrong reason(s). It is extremely useful to get a wrong answer doing the right thing and learning something in the process.
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Quoting 48. Neapolitan:
A few days ago, JB said that Haiyan grew as strong as it did because the ocean waters east of the Philippines hadn't moved in many years, so they'd had lots of time to sit and absorb solar heat. Did he happen to cover his nascent theory of "Solar Heat Amplification Due To The Mysterious And Somehow Entirely Undetected Until Now Cessation Of The Western Pacific North Equatorial Current" again in today's video?


No not today. LOL! I based my on theory listening to him talk about how the enso regions jumped from -.06 to +.01 in just a couple of months.
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Quoting 46. SFLWeatherman:
GFS next Wednesday look at the 20's and 30's in FL!
yes the next front will be stronger,for florida winter may come early this year..
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Typhoons in the Philippines:
Typhoon Angela (Rosing; 1995) – swept through the Philippines at an intensity similar to Haiyan
Typhoon Mike (Ruping; 1990) – one of the worst typhoons in Central Philippine history
Typhoon Bopha (Pablo; 2012) – most destructive Philippine typhoon
Tropical Storm Thelma (Uring; 1991) – deadliest Philippine tropical cyclone
Typhoon Haiyan (known in the Philippines as Typhoon Yolanda) is the second-deadliest Philippine typhoon on record, killing at least 2,344 people.

All have occurred within the past 23 years. Now is the intensity of these storms linked to the warming climate?
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Quoting 43. Neapolitan:
No, that's obviously what some would like it to say. But what it actually means--and you're certainly free to read it--is that the global temperature rise over the past 15 years has been greatly underestimated.

If your oncologist comes to you and says, "I know I told you six months ago that you probably had a year to live, but these new and better tests we've run tell us you'll be dead in a week," you'd be foolish to say, "She has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that she has no clue what's going to happen to me, so I'll live forever!"



What is better....To undercharge your electric car or overcharge your electric car???? If you underestimate that can be as bad as overestimate......
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Quoting 43. Neapolitan:
No, that's obviously what some would like it to say. But what it actually means--and you're certainly free to read it--is that the global temperature rise over the past 15 years has been greatly underestimated.

If your oncologist comes to you and says, "I know I told you six months ago that you probably had a year to live, but these new and better tests we've run tell us you'll be dead in a week," you'd be foolish to say, "She has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that she has no clue what's going to happen to me, so I'll live forever!"


That's a crass analogy !

Supposing the person on the internet that you just spoken to ,has cancer or someone related to them has been going that illness. But I guess consideration like that means nothing !
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6899
Quoting 11. StormTrackerScott:
Over the last 60 days we have seen the ENSO regions warm faster than any period in history and I would tend to think this also helped Haiyan in her intensification. JB infact did a video on this aspect this morning which I thought of Haiyan when I was watching the video. I can't post it on here because WxBell won't give anyone access to view unless a member.

A few days ago, JB said that Haiyan grew as strong as it did because the ocean waters east of the Philippines hadn't moved in many years, so they'd had lots of time to sit and absorb solar heat. Did he happen to cover his nascent theory of "Solar Heat Amplification Due To The Mysterious And Somehow Entirely Undetected Until Now Cessation Of The Western Pacific North Equatorial Current" again in today's video?
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Off topic...but this is just great weather for a nice hot bowl of homemade soup...yummmy!
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GFS next Wednesday look at the 20's and 30's in FL!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4527
Quoting 32. StormTrackerScott:


Afternoon ncstorm, this will likely be the coldest December in several years across the Country.

NCEP CFS December forecast

I hate long range models but I hope this does come true for us in the east.As ncstorm said doesn't seem right singing jiggle bells with temps outside hitting the 70 degree mark.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16979
Quoting 42. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm on my phone right now so I don't feel like typing a long response lol. I should be home in about a half hour; I'll get back to you then.

Cool, looking forward to your retort!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
Quoting 18. luvtogolf:
Let me say what it really means: Our peer reviewed scientific studies have proven without a shadow of a doubt that we have no clue what the global temperatures have done over the past 15 years:)
No, that's obviously what some would like it to say. But what it actually means--and you're certainly free to read it--is that the global temperature rise over the past 15 years has been greatly underestimated.

If your oncologist comes to you and says, "I know I told you six months ago that you probably had a year to live, but these new and better tests we've run tell us you'll be dead in a week," you'd be foolish to say, "She has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that she has no clue what's going to happen to me, so I'm certain to live forever!"
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Quoting 34. 1900hurricane:

Not sure I entirely agree with you. Yes there was a jet steak somewhat to the north of Haiyan and it did likely somewhat help ventilation, but the best outflow was continually to the south and west of the tropical cyclone while at its peak.





Also, with a tropical cyclone being in essence a thermodynamic engine, it is impossible to get one this strong without superior amounts of low level Theta-E. In a tropical cyclone, surface Theta-E is acquired by the evaporation of water from the ocean surface. Due to the laws of physics, this evaporation has a net cooling effect on the ocean surface. When the ocean cools enough to where there is insufficient Theta-E to sustain an updraft, the engine breaks down, which was observed in Hurricane Raymond this year in a rather spectacular fashion. In Haiyan's case, enormous amounts of Theta-E near 370 K were required just to maintain updrafts in the eyewall. With extreme amounts of evaporation required to supply that Theta-E, warm water depth is important. When the ocean surface becomes cool from evaporation, warmer water from below is able to rise and replace it (upwell), continuing to supply the required surface Theta-E.

I'm on my phone right now so I don't feel like typing a long response lol. I should be home in about a half hour; I'll get back to you then.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
Quoting 38. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hopefully it is like 2009 and we will have a chance for some snow here in Central Florida.


No snow by me that year but did get about 2 hours of sleet which made the roads a mess!!
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Quoting 37. StormTrackerScott:


I might be there if I can get off;/
Willie Miller Center. I will be looking out for you. You might see me before I see you. We get extra credit points for attending :D
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Quoting 2. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks, Dr. Masters.

I think I'll go with the unusually intense jet stream north of Haiyan, providing great ventilation, as the culprit for its rapid intensification phase and subsequent peak intensity. Atmospheric conditions always trump thermodynamics.



thanks for the update doc

TA I would like to add that the track of 31w over the deep waters of Emden deep also played a part as well and likely added to the surge as well its a deep trench that comes to an abrupt end just prior to coming up against the shallow coastal waters

many factors coming together to produce the end result is likely
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
Quoting 32. StormTrackerScott:


Afternoon ncstorm, this will likely be the coldest December in several years across the Country.

NCEP CFS December forecast

Hopefully it is like 2009 and we will have a chance for some snow here in Central Florida.
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Quoting 36. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Excited for tomorrow. Dr. Bruce McFadden from the University of Florida is coming to Embry-Riddle to give his presentation on climate change. I wish everyone on here could come and see this. He is using fossil horses to reconstruct climate change in deep time as far back as 5 million years ago. Looking forward to it.


I might be there if I can get off;/ If you see a tall 6'2" 210 pound guy that is likely me.
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Excited for tomorrow. Dr. Bruce McFadden from the University of Florida is coming to Embry-Riddle to give his presentation on climate change. I wish everyone on here could come and see this. He is using fossil horses to reconstruct climate change in deep time as far back as 5 million years ago. Looking forward to it.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.