Super Typhoon Haiyan's Intensification and Unusually Warm Sub-Surface Waters

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:25 PM GMT on November 13, 2013

Share this Blog
58
+

A remarkable warming of the sub-surface Pacific waters east of the Philippines in recent decades, due to a shift in atmospheric circulation patterns and ocean currents that began in the early 1990s, could be responsible for the rapid intensification of Super Typhoon Haiyan. Hurricanes are heat engines, which means they take heat energy out of the ocean, and convert it to kinetic energy in the form of wind. It's well-known that tropical cyclones need surface water temperatures of at least 26.5°C (80°F) to maintain themselves, and that the warmer the water, and the deeper the warm water is, the stronger the storm can get. Deep warm water is important, since as a tropical cyclone tracks over the ocean, it stirs up cooler water from the depths, potentially reducing the intensity of the storm. When both Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita exploded into Category 5 hurricanes as they crossed over a warm eddy in the Gulf of Mexico with a lot of deep, warm water, the concept of the total heat energy available to fuel a hurricane--the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP)--became one that gained wide recognition. The Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines has the largest area of deep, warm water of anywhere on Earth, and these waters have historically fueled the highest incidence of Category 5 storms of anywhere on the planet. Super Typhoon Haiyan tracked over surface waters that were of near-average warmth, 29.5 - 30.5°C (85 - 87°F.) However, the waters at a depth of 100 meters (328 feet) beneath Haiyan during its rapid intensification phase were a huge 3°C above average, according to Professor I-I Lin of the Department of Atmospheric Science at the National Taiwan University. An analysis by the Japan Meteorological Agency for October showed ocean temperatures 4 - 5°C (7 - 9°F) above average during October (Figure 1). This analysis was from a model. When looking at actual measurements made by the Argo float data in early November, the temperatures in the layer 100 meters below the surface under Haiyan were about 3°C above average, not 4 - 5°C, according to Dr. Lin. As the typhoon stirred this unusually warm water to the surface, the storm was likely able to feed off the heat, allowing Haiyan to intensify into one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever observed.


Figure 1. Modeled departure of temperature from average at a depth of 100 meters in the West Pacific Ocean during October 2013, compared to a 1986 - 2008 average. The track and intensity of Super Typhoon Haiyan are overlaid. Haiyan passed directly over large areas of sub-surface water that were much above average in temperature, which likely contributed to the storm's explosive deepening. While this model showed 4 - 5°C departures from average in October, the actual values were closer to 3°C in early November, according to Argo float data. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Why was there such unusually warm sub-surface water?
The sub-surface waters east of the Philippines have warmed dramatically over the past twenty years. According to Pun et al. (2013), "Recent increase in high tropical cyclone heat potential area in the Western North Pacific Ocean", the depth to where ocean temperatures of at least 26°C (79°F) penetrates has increased by 17% since the early 1990s, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential has increased by 13%. The warm-up is due to an increase in the surface winds blowing across the region--the trade winds--which have caused a southward migration and strengthening of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) and the North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC). The strong trade winds have pushed a large amount of water up against the east coast of the Philippines in the past twenty years, resulting in a rate of sea level rise of 10 mm per year--more than triple the global average of 3.1 mm/yr (Figure 2.) This extra sea level rise contributed to the storm surge damage from Super Typhoon Haiyan. Sea level rise data from Legaspi in the Eastern Philippines shows a rise of about 305 mm (12 inches) since 1949. For comparison, global average sea level rose 7.5" (190 mm) since 1901. Part of the rise along the eastern Philippine coast is from tectonic processes--the subsidence of the Philippine plate under the Eurasian plate--but most of it is due to the stronger trade winds piling up warm water along the coast, and the fact that warmer waters expand, raising sea level.


Figure 2. Trend in sea level from satellite altimeter measurements in 1993 - 2010. Black lines are the Sea Surface Height (SSH) in cm from Rio et al. (2009.) Image credit: Qiu, B., and S. Chen, 2012, "Multidecadal sea level and gyre circulation variability in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean", Journal of Physical Oceanography 42.1 (2012): 193-206.

Why have the trade winds sped up?
The surface trade winds in the equatorial Pacific are part of the Walker Circulation--a pattern of rising and sinking air along the Equator that the El Nino/La Nina cycle influences. A strong Walker circulation means there is lower pressure over Indonesia, which pulls in more air at the surface along the Equator from the east, increasing the easterly trade winds. As these trade winds strengthen, they pull surface ocean waters away from South America, allowing cold water to upwell to the surface. This is a La Niña-like situation, which takes heat energy out of the atmosphere, putting it into the ocean, keeping global surface temperatures cooler than they would otherwise be. A weakened Walker circulation is the reverse, resulting in weaker trade winds, and a more El Niño-like situation with higher global surface temperatures. As long as the stronger Walker circulation that has been in place since the early 1990s holds, global surface temperatures should stay cooler than they otherwise would be, prolonging the slow-down in global surface warming that has received much attention this year. There may also be a greater chance of super typhoons and higher storm surges affecting the Philippines, due to the warmer sub-surface waters and re-arranged ocean currents. A 2013 paper by L’Heureux et al. notes that the climate models predict that the Walker circulation should weaken (a more El Niño-like situation)--the reverse of what has been observed the past twenty years. The researchers took the observed pressure patterns over the Pacific in recent decades and removed the atmospheric response to the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The resulting pattern they found showed a steady strengthening of the Walker circulation, in concert with global rising temperatures. So, are we seeing a failure of the climate models? Or is the recent speed-up of the Walker circulation a decades-long temporary "speed bump" in the climate system? Time will tell. It is worth pointing out that a just-released paper by British and Canadian researchers shows that the global surface temperature rise of the past 15 years has been greatly underestimated. As discussed at realclimate.org, "The reason is the data gaps in the weather station network, especially in the Arctic. If you fill these data gaps using satellite measurements, the warming trend is more than doubled in the widely-used HadCRUT4 data, and the much-discussed “warming pause” has virtually disappeared."

I appeared on PBS Newshour last night to discuss the linkages between stronger tropical cyclones and climate change, video here.

References
L’Heureux, Michelle L., Sukyoung Lee, and Bradfield Lyon, 2013, "Recent multidecadal strengthening of the Walker circulation across the tropical Pacific", Nature Climate Change 3.6 (2013): 571-576.

Pun, Iam‐Fei, I‐I. Lin, and Min‐Hui Lo, 2013, "Recent increase in high tropical cyclone heat potential area in the Western North Pacific Ocean", Geophysical Research Letters (2013).

Qiu, B., and S. Chen, 2012, "Multidecadal sea level and gyre circulation variability in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean", Journal of Physical Oceanography 42.1 (2012): 193-206.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 186 - 136

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22Blog Index

Quoting 169. StormTrackerScott:


Hey buddy I thought you were mad at me. I really like what you post and I love hearing info about your current location.

No worries!
I am genetically incapable of getting mad at anybody, after all I used to be "married!"
I, along with a lot of people on here only want to get to the bottom of what is going on and will be going on shortly?
Individuals will and can only ever have their opinions but at the end of the day, its the collective future of humanity which must be our prime concern.
Having cast the ashes of our 2 co-posters of this blog into the sea, I wish only to state what not only comes into our minds but what might come to pass, so to speak in the future.
These storms which to us are fascinating, are death to a lot of people and WE must never forget that!
If we annoy some people? Then please put us on "ignore," We won't mind and if they ban us for posting what we see as truths; then its not a loss to us but a gain to the overhaul dominant democracy; no!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 183. Dakster:


Goes great with fish, although I can't have too much of it since I get drunk really fast.
That was my problem when I was young....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 130. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Okay, home now. :P

I'm certainly not denying that a warm ocean was a crucial part of Haiyan's rapid intensification; it would not have otherwise happened. However, I still feel that the astounding upper-level environment was more likely a reason for the storm's crazy intensity. If we take a look at the November 7, 06z GFS initialization, we note Haiyan situated southeast (right entrance region) of a 100kt upper-level jet stream. You know the story...upper-level divergence associated with a tropical cyclone increases vertical motion, allowing for enhanced diabetic heating from the condensation of rising air parcels. Eventually, this allows for the central pressure to fall, leading to an increased pressure gradient surrounding the center. The magnitude of low-level winds around the center increases as the gradient strengthens, leading to an increase in winds. Conversely to what Patrap said, if you don't have a favorable upper-level environment...even over unusually warm and deep sea surface temperatures...you're not getting a rapidly intensifying cyclone, and certainly not a 195 mph tropical cyclones.

While on the topic of Raymond (just a side note), there's some research going on by a few college graduate students as to what exactly caused the phenomenal rapid deepening phase. For years now, a convectively coupled kelvin wave was thought to just allow for higher chances of development. However, and I regretfully didn't save the graphic, a very strong CCKW was moving through the East Pacific and over Raymond just as it began to rapidly intensify; it was very nearly simultaneous. Just something to think about.


I am very aware of that jet streak, but it's influence on the situation is somewhat diminished by a few things. First, the core of Haiyan is over 10* latitude from the jet streak. Additionally, upper level riding (the same upper level ridge that was slightly shearing Haiyan the day before) is separating Haiyan's outflow from the right entrance region of the jet streak. Your chart above even features convergent streamlines along the ridge and between the features. The divergent area associated with the jet streak doesn't even start until about the latitude of Taiwan, and the cyclonic curvature of the jet streak somewhat compromises the amount of divergence associated with it as well (not as much as in the image below, but you get the picture).



Yes, an excellent upper air environment is needed in addition to an excellent thermodynamic environment in order to produce and sustain a tropical cyclone of Haiyan's caliber. You're not getting such a storm without either. However, the influence that jet streak had on Haiyan's upper level environment was very small.

Interesting note on Raymond by the way. I remember you mentioning that very thing earlier. I look forward to what that study concludes.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
Quoting 179. hydrus:
Meade is good.


Goes great with fish, although I can't have too much of it since I get drunk really fast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 178. Dakster:


I am sure that was what the dinosaurs thought too. (Sarcasm: on)
I dated a dinosaur once... T-Rex if I remember correctly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 147. Patrap:


Maybe try Australia,...and check their ongoing misery.

But thanks for the exit note.


And Winters begins up here n the N. Hemisphere Dec 21.




In the DC area the coldest quarter of the year is from Dec 7 to about March 7.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Still kinda numb... Going through a root canal... Last week the killing of the nerve and pulp...This afternoon the temporary crown, Dec. 9th the real crown.... This freekin' sucks... I need a "Long Island Iced Tea"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 153. Patrap:


A Reflector Telescope of 4.5 inch will resolve it Nicely,

My Meade 4.5 Newtonian always amazes folks.


Meade is good.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22640
Quoting 177. hydrus:
We will adapt if nothing comes along to speed things up faster than we can cope.


I am sure that was what the dinosaurs thought too. (Sarcasm: on)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 121. LargoFl:
indeed..so we humans adapt to the changes or perish..its that simple..humans over the last thousands of years have ruled because we think,we adapt very well to changes, and IF this so called warming indeed gets worse,the oceans rise, the storms become more severe..we adapt to this new condition...plain and simple isnt it?..the oceans rise..we move our cities inhland,the storms become more severe, we tighten and strengthen building codes...nothing more to be said.
We will adapt if nothing comes along to speed things up faster than we can cope.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22640
Quoting 73. washingtonian115:
"Why shouldn't they pay for that damage?" Because not everyone can afford it?.When I go out to shop they have already put taxes on plastic bags and when you have a big family like I do it really adds up in the end...

Get reusable bags. Problem solved.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 171. JupiterKen:
Apologies if this has been previously posted. Before and after pics Tacloban.
Link


Just horrible to look at it! Thanks for sharing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 170. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I know I want to see all the planets in person from space view. Maybe NASA will get a space craft built sometime in the near future that would allow common people like me and you a trip to space.


Would be nice, but I doubt it will happen in my lifetime. And I would love to see them in person, even if it is just from a space craft.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 137. Neapolitan:
Well, I didn't post that to get into another argument with you. So I'll just say this: 1) Professional climatologist Heidi Cullen tweeted an NOAA report that said Haiyan developed in a low-shear, high-TCHP environment. 2) JB responded to Cullen by himself tweeting, "Did you even bother to look at how infrequent typhoons have been where this is crossing, which means water is not cooled? Are you for real? Of course water is warm, NO typhoons within 100 miles of this since 2008. No stirring of water". No, he didn't explicitly say the current had stopped moving. But he definitely claimed that the waters east of the Philippines were warm because they hadn't been stirred by a typhoon in five years. And the only way that could possibly be true is if there were no current to move those waters. I can see that pointing that out upsets some of his fans and followers, and for that I'm sorry. But there's no "malfunction"; that is what the man said...



The "malfunction " is when you paraphrase in accurately to make it appear he said something he didn't . Quote accurately and then rip apart whatever you don't like about what he says and I won't say a word.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 101. StormTrackerScott:
My gosh I am sitting here appalled byt the post of PlazaRed towards me and to think I liked the guy and what he post on here. Geesh!

Scott.... Don't worry about it, or take it personally.... I get the same crap everytime I sign on.....When you get older(like me)..."It just doesn't matter" Do what you think is needed, and right in your opinion...It may piss a few off, but OH WELL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Apologies if this has been previously posted. Before and after pics Tacloban.
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 164. Dakster:
Cool beans GT - I am sure it would be a amazing site, to see Jupiter in person!
I know I want to see all the planets in person from space view. Maybe NASA will get a space craft built sometime in the near future that would allow common people like me and you a trip to space.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 163. PlazaRed:

Plazas comments are normally never directed at any person on this blog personally!
Having said that I did have a go at Hydras a few years ago one night.
We got over it, as we all do!
The future of humanity is a great concern for a lot of people and when I, ( the typist,)/ We started posting on this blog about 3 years ago in the new year there were 4 of us intrigued and fascinated by what the tropical systems will play a part in the immediate future of humanity.
Now there are only 2 of us left alive, as 2 of us have died of cancer in the last year.
I do the posting. The other chappie is in a bad way with diabetes, so one day soon you might only have to put up with me!
Needless to say I am in good health and will continue to post as long as #I can still draw breath on this blog, Admin permitting.


Hey buddy I thought you were mad at me. I really like what you post and I love hearing info about your current location.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 136. barbamz:
Post #130. Hmm, what is CCKW? Got very strange answers when I googled it.

Kelvin waves.

"Kelvin waves have long been known to fluid dynamicists interested in the atmosphere. They were first identified by William Thomson (Lord Kelvin) in the nineteenth century. Broadly speaking, Kelvin waves are large-scale waves whose structure "traps" them so that they propagate along a physical boundary such as a mountain range in the atmosphere or a coastline in the ocean.e In the tropics, each hemisphere can act as the barrier for a Kelvin wave in the opposite atmosphere, resulting in "equatorially–trapped" Kelvin waves (e.g., Fig 4.15). Kelvin waves are thought to be important for initiation of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon (Section 4.2.1.3) and for maintenance of the MJO."

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 165. bappit:

I wouldn't mention those two in the same sentence. JB makes grotesque errors and pretends to be an expert. Cantore is just a TV weatherman and doesn't make the same pretentious claims of expertise.


Sorry, I believe that they both play to the camera.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 146. ncstorm:
well looky a here..

The CPC has changed its tune..finally gave up that notion with the above average temps..when this map displays blue, rarely do you see it posted..





It's about time CPC change their minds. There's few more high pressure carrying the polar cold mass coming from NW Canada, especially on Nov. 20/21, Nov. 26/27, and a huge high pressure bringing in cold air mass entering USA on Nov. 29/30. Few meteorologists are starting to think December will be a cold one as well.

Morning of November 21:



Morning of November 27:



Morning of November 29:



The one at end of November and beginning of December look like epic cold snap, but it's 384 hours away still.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 155. Dakster:


Alot of us here bash JB and Cantore. Some of the reasons are because of their simplistic view of the weather and generalizations that they both make. (and I gotta admit it is fun)

But we should also remember that they both have a much different target audience than those of us that blog on a weather forum. We are enthusiasts that tend to know more, and expect more a comprehensive report...

I wouldn't mention those two in the same sentence. JB makes grotesque errors and pretends to be an expert. Cantore is just a TV weatherman and doesn't make the same pretentious claims of expertise.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cool beans GT - I am sure it would be a amazing site, to see Jupiter in person!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 140. MrMixon:


Worry not - Plaza's comment was not, as far as I could tell, directed at you.

Plazas comments are normally never directed at any person on this blog personally!
Having said that I did have a go at Hydrus a few years ago one night.
We got over it, as we all do!
The future of humanity is a great concern for a lot of people and when I, ( the typist,)/ We started posting on this blog about 3 years ago in the new year there were 4 of us intrigued and fascinated by what the tropical systems will play a part in the immediate future of humanity.
Now there are only 2 of us left alive, as 2 of us have died of cancer in the last year.
I do the posting. The other chappie is in a bad way with diabetes, so one day soon you might only have to put up with me!
Then I'll only be:- The PlazaRed!
Needless to say I am in good health and will continue to post as long as #I can still draw breath on this blog, Admin permitting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BTW for all of you who where interested in GOCE, the European satellite which explored Earth's grativity and burned up in atmosphere three nights ago: This is its last portrait photo, lol, near Falkland Islands:



Twitter:

ESOC experts confirm - this is #GOCE! MT @Cheds23: We saw GOCE burn up from the Falklands at about 9.20pm last night. pic.twitter.com/DBYsV1n7KR
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 132. Jedkins01:


It always amazes me how more than one model can show a heavy rain over Florida but if you look at the WPC maps you wouldn't know that's the case. I know its the dry season but there have been plenty of heavy rain events during drier months as well historically, this isn't southern California.

It seems the WPC and the SPC sometimes forget we exist lol. That's why I just focus more on the local NWS offices that have a better handle on their local weather situation.


Yeah here is the WRF simulated radar and look at this mass of heavy rain moving ENE toward the West Coast of FL in 45 hours.



Warm front moving NE with PWAT's of 2" & higher moving in from the Gulf.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks, Dr. Masters.

I think I'll go with the unusually intense jet stream north of Haiyan, providing great ventilation, as the culprit for its rapid intensification phase and subsequent peak intensity. Atmospheric conditions always trump thermodynamics.

It is a fallacy, generally, to cite any one factor as the cause of events like this. If the thermodynamics had not been there then the ventilation would have been supporting a weaker storm. I'll accept for the sake of argument that if the ventilation had not been there, then the thermodynamics would have supported a weaker storm. (Actually, I dunno. Wish you cited a source.)

People have to pose their questions clearly when dealing with complex situations. Demanding simple answers is a mistake, pure and simple.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 148. Dakster:


I would love to see a true color picture of Saturn. Obviously the below blue/red one is IR and enhanced. The one above looks a little odd as well.
My guess is it would be a shade of yellow or brown.

New images show the true color of Saturn's mysterious hexagon



Link
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
StormWX - Raining here... Although I live pretty darn close to the ocean. (1/4 - 1/2 mile away)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 146. ncstorm:
well looky here..

The CPC has changed its tune..finally gave up that notion with the above average temps..when this map displays blue, rarely do you see it posted..



It is my guess that the eastern third of the U.S. will see a lot more blue B,s.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22640
Quoting 149. TimSoCal:


Maybe it's because he's saying that no Typhoons have gone thru the waters east of the Phillipines in years before Haiyan. And yet Bopha, Utor, and Nari all hit in the last 12 months, coming from the waters to the east of the Phillipines.


Alot of us here bash JB and Cantore. Some of the reasons are because of their simplistic view of the weather and generalizations that they both make. (and I gotta admit it is fun)

But we should also remember that they both have a much different target audience than those of us that blog on a weather forum. We are enthusiasts that tend to know more, and expect more a comprehensive report...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 148. Dakster:


I would love to see a true color picture of Saturn. Obviously the below blue/red one is IR and enhanced. The one above looks a little odd as well.


A Reflector Telescope of 4.5 inch will resolve it Nicely,

My Meade 4.5 Newtonian always amazes folks.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Quoting 140. MrMixon:


Worry not - Plaza's comment was not, as far as I could tell, directed at you.


Oh Ok. I'm sorry It just seemed that when reading his post I thought it was directed at me. I like his post and really was confused maybe he meant JB which seems like a lot of people dislike JB.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 144. nwobilderburg:


wait there was a shooting

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania





Quoting 102. Walshy:
Sugar Mountain, NC this morning via Marshall Williams.



:/ I want it... I want that snow. Can I have some please? :p
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 144. nwobilderburg:


wait there was a shooting


Yeah, in Pittsburgh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 123. StormTrackerScott:


I post something from JB and some get crazy on here. JB actually makes a lot of sense on his video's heck he has been forecasting as long as I have been alive.


Maybe it's because he's saying that no Typhoons have gone thru the waters east of the Phillipines in years before Haiyan. And yet Bopha, Utor, and Nari all hit in the last 12 months, coming from the waters to the east of the Phillipines.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 134. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Time to change it up a bit.



NASA's Cassini spacecraft has taken pictures of Saturn and Earth before. In this 2006 image, Earth is a tiny dot on the left, just to the inside of the second outer ring.



This view of Saturn's rings in ultraviolet light indicates ice toward the outer part of the rings.


Link

This mosaic of Saturn's rings was taken by Cassini in September 2006, while the spacecraft was in the shadow of the planet looking back toward the rings from a distance of 1.34 million miles (2.16 million kilometers).


I would love to see a true color picture of Saturn. Obviously the below blue/red one is IR and enhanced. The one above looks a little odd as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 127. LargoFl:
well thats it for me..stay warm out there tonight folks..global warming hasnt stopped winter lol...good night everyone


Maybe try Australia,...and check their ongoing misery.

But thanks for the exit note.


And Winters begins up here n the N. Hemisphere Dec 21.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Quoting 102. Walshy:
Sugar Mountain, NC this morning via Marshall Williams.



Western NC mountains covered in snow is just beautiful. I don't think it snowed in the mountains around Asheville enough to get anything on ground because I can see Mt. Pisgah from here and there's no snow over.

Quoting 130. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Okay, home now. :P

I'm certainly not denying that a warm ocean was a crucial part of Haiyan's rapid intensification; it would not have otherwise happened. However, I still feel that the astounding upper-level environment was more likely a reason for the storm's crazy intensity. If we take a look at the November 7, 06z GFS initialization, we note Haiyan situated southeast (right entrance region) of a 100kt upper-level jet stream. You know the story...upper-level divergence associated with a tropical cyclone increases vertical motion, allowing for enhanced diabetic heating from the condensation of rising air parcels. Eventually, this allows for the central pressure to fall, leading to an increased pressure gradient surrounding the center. The magnitude of low-level winds around the center increases as the gradient strengthens, leading to an increase in winds. Conversely to what Patrap said, if you don't have a favorable upper-level environment...even over unusually warm and deep sea surface temperatures...you're not getting a rapidly intensifying cyclone, and certainly not a 195 mph tropical cyclones.

While on the topic of Raymond (just a side note), there's some research going on by a few college graduate students as to what exactly caused the phenomenal rapid deepening phase. For years now, a convectively coupled kelvin wave was thought to just allow for higher chances of development. However, and I regretfully didn't save the graphic, a very strong CCKW was moving through the East Pacific and over Raymond just as it began to rapidly intensify; it was very nearly simultaneous. Just something to think about.



Sometimes you impress me with your knowledge of atmosphere. To be honest, I can see you working in research field more than being a forecaster. Researching is more fun than you think it might be :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 125. Doppler22:
I am getting really tired of these shootings :'(

On weather terms, its very cold. In the mid 30's right now. Coldest air since March, the last time it snowed was the last time it was this cold here.


wait there was a shooting
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 130. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Okay, home now. :P

I'm certainly not denying that a warm ocean was a crucial part of Haiyan's rapid intensification; it would not have otherwise happened. However, I still feel that the astounding upper-level environment was more likely a reason for the storm's crazy intensity. If we take a look at the November 7, 06z GFS initialization, we note Haiyan situated southeast (right entrance region) of a 100kt upper-level jet stream. You know the story...upper-level divergence associated with a tropical cyclone increases vertical motion, allowing for enhanced diabetic heating from the condensation of rising air parcels. Eventually, this allows for the central pressure to fall, leading to an increased pressure gradient surrounding the center. The magnitude of low-level winds around the center increases as the gradient strengthens, leading to an increase in winds. Conversely to what Patrap said, if you don't have a favorable upper-level environment...even over unusually warm and deep sea surface temperatures...you're not getting a rapidly intensifying cyclone, and certainly not a 195 mph tropical cyclones.

While on the topic of Raymond (just a side note), there's some research going on by a few college graduate students as to what exactly caused the phenomenal rapid deepening phase. For years now, a convectively coupled kelvin wave was thought to just allow for higher chances of development. However, and I regretfully didn't save the graphic, a very strong CCKW was moving through the East Pacific and over Raymond just as it began to rapidly intensify; it was very nearly simultaneous. Just something to think about.



You have a great point, we always talk about the water temps in the west Pacific and their depth, but we often forget that southeast and east Asia typically have the strongest jet stream events on Earth on average. The upper level environment is indeed another reason why the west Pacific sees so many typhoons along with high end ones in comparison to the Atlantic. The consistent upper level pattern of strong jets in southeast Asia make more consistently a more favorable environment.

There can be 90 degree water temps with high heat content, but without favorable upper level conditions for efficient outflow, a tropical cyclone jut cannot grow and intensify into anything substantial.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 89. Birthmark:

Okay, you've made the case that ice ages are bad for people. I agree which is why I didn't dispute it.

However, that doesn't support your claim that "any warming is good."
I know too much warming is " not " good. Largo,s post brings up some interesting questions though.

Ice core data. Note length of glacial cycles averages ~100,000 years. Blue curve is temperature, green curve is CO2, and red curve is windblown glacial dust (loess). Today's date is on the left side of the graph.


It is sometimes asserted that the length of the current interglacial temperature peak will be similar to the length of the preceding interglacial peak (Sangamonian/Eem Stage), and that therefore we might be nearing the end of this warm period. However, this conclusion is probably mistaken: the lengths of previous interglacials were not particularly regular . Berger and Loutre (2002) argue that %u201Cwith or without human perturbations, the current warm climate may last another 50,000 years. The reason is a minimum in the eccentricity of Earth's orbit around the Sun.%u201D[1] Also, Archer and Ganopolski (2005) report that probable future CO2 emissions may be enough to suppress the glacial cycle for the next 500 kyr.[2]

Note in the graphic the strong 100,000 year periodicity of the cycles, and the striking asymmetry of the curves. This asymmetry is believed to result from complex interactions of feedback mechanisms. It has been observed that the onset of an ice age occurs in one big step, but recovery to interglacial conditions occurs slowly.

Orbital mechanics require that the length of the seasons be proportional to the swept areas of the seasonal quadrants, so when the eccentricity is extreme, the seasons on the far side of the orbit can last substantially longer. Today, when autumn and winter in the northern hemisphere occur at closest approach, the earth is moving at its maximum velocity and therefore autumn and winter are slightly shorter than spring and summer.
The length of the seasons is proportional to the area of the Earth's orbit swept between the solstices and equinoxes.

Today, northern hemisphere summer is 4.66 days longer than winter and spring is 2.9 days longer than autumn.[3] As axial precession changes the place in the Earth's orbit where the solstices and equinoxes occur, Northern hemisphere winters will get longer and summers will get shorter, eventually creating conditions believed to be favorable for triggering the next glacial period.

The arrangements of land masses on the Earth's surface are believed to reinforce the orbital forcing effects. Comparisons of plate tectonic continent reconstructions and paleoclimatic studies show that the Milankovitch cycles have the greatest effect during geologic eras when landmasses have been concentrated in polar regions, as is the case today. Greenland, Antarctica, and the northern portions of Europe, Asia, and North America are situated such that a minor change in solar energy will tip the balance in the climate of the Arctic, between year-round snow/ice preservation and complete summer melting. The presence or absence of snow and ice is a well-understood positive feedback mechanism for climate.wiki
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22640
Quoting 49. VR46L:


That's a crass analogy !

Supposing the person on the internet that you just spoken to ,has cancer or someone related to them has been going that illness. But I guess consideration like that means nothing !


Really.. You aint kidding.

--

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 101. StormTrackerScott:
My gosh I am sitting here appalled...



Worry not - Plaza's comment was not, as far as I could tell, directed at you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
nothing more to be said.



Well that's solved.

LoL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Quoting 111. StormWx:
Not much rain from North to South FL the next 5 days. Enjoying the cool down and DRY weather!



Um, I live in South Florida and we've had rain all day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 118. PensacolaDoug:



Hadn't been stirred by a typhoon traversing within a hundred miles is not the same as saying the current stopped moving. What is your malfunction when it comes to honesty?
Well, I didn't post that to get into another argument with you. So I'll just say this: 1) Professional climatologist Heidi Cullen tweeted an NOAA report that said Haiyan developed in a low-shear, high-TCHP environment. 2) JB responded to Cullen by himself tweeting, "Did you even bother to look at how infrequent typhoons have been where this is crossing, which means water is not cooled? Are you for real? Of course water is warm, NO typhoons within 100 miles of this since 2008. No stirring of water". No, he didn't explicitly say the current had stopped moving. But he definitely claimed that the waters east of the Philippines were warm because they hadn't been stirred by a typhoon in five years. And the only way that could possibly be true is if there were no current to move those waters. I can see that pointing that out upsets some of his fans and followers, and for that I'm sorry. But there's no "malfunction"; that is what the man said...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13800
Post #130. Hmm, what is CCKW? Got very strange answers when I googled it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 186 - 136

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron