Super Typhoon Haiyan's Intensification and Unusually Warm Sub-Surface Waters

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:25 PM GMT on November 13, 2013

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A remarkable warming of the sub-surface Pacific waters east of the Philippines in recent decades, due to a shift in atmospheric circulation patterns and ocean currents that began in the early 1990s, could be responsible for the rapid intensification of Super Typhoon Haiyan. Hurricanes are heat engines, which means they take heat energy out of the ocean, and convert it to kinetic energy in the form of wind. It's well-known that tropical cyclones need surface water temperatures of at least 26.5°C (80°F) to maintain themselves, and that the warmer the water, and the deeper the warm water is, the stronger the storm can get. Deep warm water is important, since as a tropical cyclone tracks over the ocean, it stirs up cooler water from the depths, potentially reducing the intensity of the storm. When both Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita exploded into Category 5 hurricanes as they crossed over a warm eddy in the Gulf of Mexico with a lot of deep, warm water, the concept of the total heat energy available to fuel a hurricane--the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP)--became one that gained wide recognition. The Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines has the largest area of deep, warm water of anywhere on Earth, and these waters have historically fueled the highest incidence of Category 5 storms of anywhere on the planet. Super Typhoon Haiyan tracked over surface waters that were of near-average warmth, 29.5 - 30.5°C (85 - 87°F.) However, the waters at a depth of 100 meters (328 feet) beneath Haiyan during its rapid intensification phase were a huge 3°C above average, according to Professor I-I Lin of the Department of Atmospheric Science at the National Taiwan University. An analysis by the Japan Meteorological Agency for October showed ocean temperatures 4 - 5°C (7 - 9°F) above average during October (Figure 1). This analysis was from a model. When looking at actual measurements made by the Argo float data in early November, the temperatures in the layer 100 meters below the surface under Haiyan were about 3°C above average, not 4 - 5°C, according to Dr. Lin. As the typhoon stirred this unusually warm water to the surface, the storm was likely able to feed off the heat, allowing Haiyan to intensify into one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever observed.


Figure 1. Modeled departure of temperature from average at a depth of 100 meters in the West Pacific Ocean during October 2013, compared to a 1986 - 2008 average. The track and intensity of Super Typhoon Haiyan are overlaid. Haiyan passed directly over large areas of sub-surface water that were much above average in temperature, which likely contributed to the storm's explosive deepening. While this model showed 4 - 5°C departures from average in October, the actual values were closer to 3°C in early November, according to Argo float data. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Why was there such unusually warm sub-surface water?
The sub-surface waters east of the Philippines have warmed dramatically over the past twenty years. According to Pun et al. (2013), "Recent increase in high tropical cyclone heat potential area in the Western North Pacific Ocean", the depth to where ocean temperatures of at least 26°C (79°F) penetrates has increased by 17% since the early 1990s, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential has increased by 13%. The warm-up is due to an increase in the surface winds blowing across the region--the trade winds--which have caused a southward migration and strengthening of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) and the North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC). The strong trade winds have pushed a large amount of water up against the east coast of the Philippines in the past twenty years, resulting in a rate of sea level rise of 10 mm per year--more than triple the global average of 3.1 mm/yr (Figure 2.) This extra sea level rise contributed to the storm surge damage from Super Typhoon Haiyan. Sea level rise data from Legaspi in the Eastern Philippines shows a rise of about 305 mm (12 inches) since 1949. For comparison, global average sea level rose 7.5" (190 mm) since 1901. Part of the rise along the eastern Philippine coast is from tectonic processes--the subsidence of the Philippine plate under the Eurasian plate--but most of it is due to the stronger trade winds piling up warm water along the coast, and the fact that warmer waters expand, raising sea level.


Figure 2. Trend in sea level from satellite altimeter measurements in 1993 - 2010. Black lines are the Sea Surface Height (SSH) in cm from Rio et al. (2009.) Image credit: Qiu, B., and S. Chen, 2012, "Multidecadal sea level and gyre circulation variability in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean", Journal of Physical Oceanography 42.1 (2012): 193-206.

Why have the trade winds sped up?
The surface trade winds in the equatorial Pacific are part of the Walker Circulation--a pattern of rising and sinking air along the Equator that the El Nino/La Nina cycle influences. A strong Walker circulation means there is lower pressure over Indonesia, which pulls in more air at the surface along the Equator from the east, increasing the easterly trade winds. As these trade winds strengthen, they pull surface ocean waters away from South America, allowing cold water to upwell to the surface. This is a La Niña-like situation, which takes heat energy out of the atmosphere, putting it into the ocean, keeping global surface temperatures cooler than they would otherwise be. A weakened Walker circulation is the reverse, resulting in weaker trade winds, and a more El Niño-like situation with higher global surface temperatures. As long as the stronger Walker circulation that has been in place since the early 1990s holds, global surface temperatures should stay cooler than they otherwise would be, prolonging the slow-down in global surface warming that has received much attention this year. There may also be a greater chance of super typhoons and higher storm surges affecting the Philippines, due to the warmer sub-surface waters and re-arranged ocean currents. A 2013 paper by L’Heureux et al. notes that the climate models predict that the Walker circulation should weaken (a more El Niño-like situation)--the reverse of what has been observed the past twenty years. The researchers took the observed pressure patterns over the Pacific in recent decades and removed the atmospheric response to the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The resulting pattern they found showed a steady strengthening of the Walker circulation, in concert with global rising temperatures. So, are we seeing a failure of the climate models? Or is the recent speed-up of the Walker circulation a decades-long temporary "speed bump" in the climate system? Time will tell. It is worth pointing out that a just-released paper by British and Canadian researchers shows that the global surface temperature rise of the past 15 years has been greatly underestimated. As discussed at realclimate.org, "The reason is the data gaps in the weather station network, especially in the Arctic. If you fill these data gaps using satellite measurements, the warming trend is more than doubled in the widely-used HadCRUT4 data, and the much-discussed “warming pause” has virtually disappeared."

I appeared on PBS Newshour last night to discuss the linkages between stronger tropical cyclones and climate change, video here.

References
L’Heureux, Michelle L., Sukyoung Lee, and Bradfield Lyon, 2013, "Recent multidecadal strengthening of the Walker circulation across the tropical Pacific", Nature Climate Change 3.6 (2013): 571-576.

Pun, Iam‐Fei, I‐I. Lin, and Min‐Hui Lo, 2013, "Recent increase in high tropical cyclone heat potential area in the Western North Pacific Ocean", Geophysical Research Letters (2013).

Qiu, B., and S. Chen, 2012, "Multidecadal sea level and gyre circulation variability in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean", Journal of Physical Oceanography 42.1 (2012): 193-206.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 431. bappit:
Frontal zone in the central Atlantic looks active. Moving a lot of energy north.


Yes. To the SE of Newfoundland is a wave that coming 48h will develop into a massive low <940 hPa on a very high latitude, bit south of Svalbard (near Bear Island in the Barentz). With that the zonal pattern of past weeks in the North Atlantic gets disrupted.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
Might get a bit stormy here on the coast scott this weekend..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
Good Morning folks.....................
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Quoting 426. VirginIslandsVisitor:
Good morning everyone

It's a 79, partly cloudy, roosters crowing, frogs croaking, mosquitoes buzzing, light breeze and going for a high of 88 kind of day over here today.

I don't get online as much these days. Hope everyone is well!

Lindy


Good morning Lindy. Here is at 77 degrees and clear sky. But prepare for some rain with cooler temperatures and high seas this weekend. See more about this at my Blog.
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Frontal zone in the central Atlantic looks active. Moving a lot of energy north.

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430. beell
Quoting 428. Ameister12:
Good morning everybody!

It's been a long time since the SPC has included my area (as well as all of Ohio) in the Day 4-8 Outlook. Could be interesting.





Well, so far, everything I thought about this system has been wrong. So...good luck and stay safe!
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Quoting 428. Ameister12:
Good morning everybody!

It's been a long time since the SPC has included my area (as well as all of Ohio) in the Day 4-8 Outlook. Could be interesting.


I like how it's mid-November and I'm on the edge of a severe weather risk area. Even better, there is a chance of rain and snow on Monday. You got to love fall weather.
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Good morning everybody!

It's been a long time since the SPC has included my area (as well as all of Ohio) in the Day 4-8 Outlook. Could be interesting.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SOME UNCERTAINTY LINGERS...BUT TRENDS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
GUIDANCE ARE INCREASINGLY SUGGESTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. MOST GUIDANCE NOW APPEARS GENERALLY FASTER
WITH THE CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOST MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...WITH MOST RAPID SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

A 90+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK NOSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...COUPLED
WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WARM SECTOR 850 MB FLOW...PERHAPS IN
EXCESS OF 70 KTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS
AND SHEAR. IT ALSO APPEARS INCREASINGLY PROBABLE THAT THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH AN INFLUX OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AT LEAST
AS FAR NORTH AND EAST AS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO
SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT. SUPERCELLS WITH A
RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN EARLY STAGES
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MID DAY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY VALLEY.

EVENTUALLY...THOUGH...ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL
LINE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS BECOMING THE MOST PROMINENT
SEVERE THREAT. IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD
PROGRESS INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHEAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT THIS IS STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO
DELINEATE A REGIONAL SEVERE RISK AREA EAST OF THAT CURRENTLY
DEPICTED. THEREAFTER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD APPEARS LOW.

..KERR.. 11/14/2013
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4939
Quoting 420. TomTaylor:
I don't think Haiyan's intensity was entirely achieved due to the jet to it's north either.

With that said, there's no doubt the reason for Super Typhoon Haiyan's incredible intensity is due to the perfect upper level environment it was presented with. Obviously, warm waters were present to sustain and support such a storm (moisture & heat, or theta-E as you noted), but SSTs were average to below average along Haiyan's track. In other words, SSTs were as warm as they always are in that region, but it was the ideal upper level environment which allowed the storm to reach it's maximum potential intensity. Levi's point about low latitude and the coriolis force may have also helped Haiyan avoid a true eyewall replacement cycle.


While sea surface temperatures were around average were around average, the depth of the warm water was very anomalous as Dr. Jeff Masters points out. This lead to a very heightened oceanic heat content which was very much above average. In fact, looking at today's current OHC and OHC anomalies, the area Haiyan traversed has a very noticeable reduction in values due to upwelling, or a wake of sorts, which is much more than it is just looking at surface temperatures or anomalies. The presence of such a wake in OHC shows that Haiyan was tapping these very deep warm waters in order to achieve/maintain its extreme intensity, despite a fast forward speed.









As I noted before, a favorable non hostile upper air environment is needed to witness tropical cyclones of Haiyan's magnitude, but the deep warm waters and high OHCs for supplying the tropical thermodynamic engine was paramount.
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Good morning everyone

It's a 79, partly cloudy, roosters crowing, frogs croaking, mosquitoes buzzing, light breeze and going for a high of 88 kind of day over here today.

I don't get online as much these days. Hope everyone is well!

Lindy
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Morning all. Woke up early to mostly cloudy, 73 degrees and winds out of the NE at 20 mph.

I think the cold front has arrived... :o)

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Quoting 345. BaltimoreBrian:
We've had a few years when when haven't had our first freeze until December in inner Baltimore. Also true for Central Park.



Gotta love the urban heat island effect, the average first freeze comes earlier than that in North Florida, usually by the last week of November.
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Quoting 417. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Check out the cold air advection. Cold air overrunning the warmer waters off the Atlantic East Coast. It's actually keeping the temps and winds up along the East Coast. At 12:30 AM it is 64°F in Daytona Beach and 54°F in Largo. A 10 degree difference due to cloud cover and increased winds which is causing mixing in the atmosphere.




Meanwhile its 41 over here :)
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By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:25 PM CST on November 13, 2013 +47
A remarkable warming of the sub-surface Pacific waters east of the Philippines in recent decades, due to a shift in atmospheric circulation patterns and ocean currents that began in the early 1990s, could be responsible for the rapid intensification of Super Typhoon Haiyan. Hurricanes are heat engines, which means they take heat energy out of the ocean, and convert it to kinetic energy in the form of wind. It's well-known that tropical cyclones need surface water temperatures of at least 26.5°C (80°F) to maintain themselves, and that the warmer the water, and the deeper the warm water is, the stronger the storm can get. Deep warm water is important, since as a tropical cyclone tracks over the ocean, it stirs up cooler water from the depths, potentially reducing the intensity of the storm. When both Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita exploded into Category 5 hurricanes as they crossed over a warm eddy in the Gulf of Mexico with a lot of deep, warm water, the concept of the total heat energy available to fuel a hurricane--the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP)--became one that gained wide recognition. The Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines has the largest area of deep, warm water of anywhere on Earth, and these waters have historically fueled the highest incidence of Category 5 storms of anywhere on the planet. Super Typhoon Haiyan tracked over surface waters that were of near-average warmth, 29.5 - 30.5°C (85 - 87°F.)



However, the waters at a depth of 100 meters (328 feet) beneath Haiyan during its rapid intensification phase were a huge 4 - 5°C (7 - 9°F) above average, judging by an analysis of October average ocean temperatures from the Japan Meteorological Agency (Figure 1.) As the typhoon stirred this unusually warm water to the surface, the storm was able to feed off the heat, allowing Haiyan to intensify into one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever observed.
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Quoting 34. 1900hurricane:

Not sure I entirely agree with you. Yes there was a jet steak somewhat to the north of Haiyan and it did likely somewhat help ventilation, but the best outflow was continually to the south and west of the tropical cyclone while at its peak.





Also, with a tropical cyclone being in essence a thermodynamic engine, it is impossible to get one this strong without superior amounts of low level Theta-E. In a tropical cyclone, surface Theta-E is acquired by the evaporation of water from the ocean surface. Due to the laws of physics, this evaporation has a net cooling effect on the ocean surface. When the ocean cools enough to where there is insufficient Theta-E to sustain an updraft, the engine breaks down, which was observed in Hurricane Raymond this year in a rather spectacular fashion. In Haiyan's case, enormous amounts of Theta-E near 370 K were required just to maintain updrafts in the eyewall. With extreme amounts of evaporation required to supply that Theta-E, warm water depth is important. When the ocean surface becomes cool from evaporation, warmer water from below is able to rise and replace it (upwell), continuing to supply the required surface Theta-E.
I don't think Haiyan's intensity was entirely achieved due to the jet to it's north either.

With that said, there's no doubt the reason for Super Typhoon Haiyan's incredible intensity is due to the perfect upper level environment it was presented with. Obviously, warm waters were present to sustain and support such a storm (moisture & heat, or theta-E as you noted), but SSTs were average to below average along Haiyan's track. In other words, SSTs were as warm as they always are in that region, but it was the ideal upper level environment which allowed the storm to reach it's maximum potential intensity. Levi's point about low latitude and the coriolis force may have also helped Haiyan avoid a true eyewall replacement cycle.

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Patrap - Gulf looks Cloudy with a chance of meatballs.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10066
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Check out the cold air advection. Cold air overrunning the warmer waters off the Atlantic East Coast. It's actually keeping the temps and winds up along the East Coast. At 12:30 AM it is 64°F in Daytona Beach and 54°F in Largo. A 10 degree difference due to cloud cover and increased winds which is causing mixing in the atmosphere.

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A few flurries. Didn't even reach freezing.
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LOL Baltimore Brian.

How's your weather? Did you get any snow?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10066
Actually the number of Chinese people between the ages of 15-64 is already peaking and by 2020 will be falling by millions every year. However, as you can see, the international Chinese Communist Conspiracy is always a threat!

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Possible, but there are awhole lot more Chinese then Japanese. Won't that take a very long time to happen?

They already have failing birth control measures in effect. Which is why there is a high female infant mortality rate.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10066
Quoting 411. BaltimoreBrian:
I think China's population will age too rapidly and the economy will become torpid like Japan.


Torpid, adjective: inactive or sluggish.

Learn a new word every day, lol. Thanks Brian.
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I think China's population will age too rapidly and the economy will become torpid like Japan.
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Quoting 408. Pallis:
If you were Saudi then the world is your supplier of cloud powders, or ground generators. I hear now they use all three in conjunction for semi guaranteed results. Have you seen the prices on powdered copper? The metals market has gone crazy since China bought most of it.


China is going to own the world one day. Unless the world can get its act together and live within their means. It will get REAL scary when the Chinese monopoly hits. Not just metals, but land and currency too.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10066
Quoting 404. CybrTeddy:


Well to be fair, ISON was really overhyped by the media. Very few people, myself included, who are serious into amateur astronomy were calling it to be brighter than the full moon to the point where it'd be visible in broad daylight. ISON is a sungrazer, meaning its peak will be as it swings around the sun at a -7 or -6 magnitude. Even if it managed to get below a -15 magnitude as some were blowing it up to be, you still would have trouble seeing it as it would have been right next to the sun on mid-day 11/28.

ISON peaked early and has simply sorta fizzled into a non-event for most astronomers at this point. Although it's slowly getting brighter, it's only a little over two weeks away from perihelion and it's still at a 6 magnitude.
That's too bad...
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Quoting 373. hydrus:
You obviously have a good supplier.
If you were Saudi then the world is your supplier of cloud powders, or ground generators. I hear now they use all three in conjunction for semi guaranteed results. Have you seen the prices on powdered copper? The metals market has gone crazy since China bought most of it.
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A blessed night to all...zzzzzzz
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20935
Quoting 379. StormTrackerScott:


I jog in shorts and a t shirt when temps get that low here.


Me too, i wouldn't jog in long pants unless the temp gets below 35-40F. I welcome the chill.
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Quoting 398. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The first hard freeze of the fall/winter is always tough, especially when it gets so warm in the summer. I'll have you know I played in the snow with no jacket in Texas when there was 20" of it on the ground and the temperature hovered around 10F! Lol.


I'll have you know that I've played in snowball fights, gotten hit with "snowballs" (more like balls of ice), wearing only a thin jacket, and I sled through the woods face-first at high velocities.

I have also watched a meteor shower in 6 degree weather with only a t-shirt and shorts on. For around 30 minutes, then I had to go inside.

Stop being a baby Cods. :D
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Quoting 395. Astrometeor:


Predicting ISON would be bright this year is worse than the NHC predicting that 2013 would be active. But, I would think it's nearly impossible to predict a comet's future magnitude. Still extremely disappointing. I was hoping for a repeat of Comet McNaught. Yeah...I think I set my expectations WAY too high.


Well to be fair, ISON was really overhyped by the media. Very few people, myself included, who are serious into amateur astronomy were calling it to be brighter than the full moon to the point where it'd be visible in broad daylight. ISON is a sungrazer, meaning its peak will be as it swings around the sun at a -7 or -6 magnitude. Even if it managed to get below a -15 magnitude as some were blowing it up to be, you still would have trouble seeing it as it would have been right next to the sun on mid-day 11/28.

ISON peaked early and has simply sorta fizzled into a non-event for most astronomers at this point. Although it's slowly getting brighter, it's only a little over two weeks away from perihelion and it's still at a 6 magnitude.
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Quoting 397. StormTrackerScott:


Orlando but I am heading to Treasure Island on Saturday and coming back on Monday.
That is the coolest place. partied lots in the 80,s.. bars open until 4 A.M. )..beach....chicks...beach...chicks...I wonder if it is still like that.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20935
Quoting 395. Astrometeor:


Predicting ISON would be bright this year is worse than the NHC predicting that 2013 would be active. But, I would think it's nearly impossible to predict a comet's future magnitude. Still extremely disappointing. I was hoping for a repeat of Comet McNaught. Yeah...I think I set my expectations WAY too high.

Comet PanSTARRS was pretty good this past spring.
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Quoting 389. HurrMichaelOrl:


Several times per year, from my research(until 10-20 years ago) and hard freezes were common, not 1 night per year of 30-32F. Outlying areas far outside of the city still experience cold like this, even to the south of town. I'll bet the average annual lowest temp in Orlando 100 years ago was not above 25F (based on how far north on the Peninsula Orlando is). 2010 brought record cold to the area, yet the downtown area did not officially get below 29F.


It seems harder and harder for it to get cold down here each year. I've seen changes here climate wise even tho I am 33.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2684
Quoting 395. Astrometeor:


Predicting ISON would be bright this year is worse than the NHC predicting that 2013 would be active. But, I would think it's nearly impossible to predict a comet's future magnitude. Still extremely disappointing. I was hoping for a repeat of Comet McNaught. Yeah...I think I set my expectations WAY too high.
If it does not break up, I believe it will be famous...if it doesnt break up...might fold like a cheap tent and we,ll have nuttin.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20935
Quoting 386. CybrTeddy:


I used to live in the mid-Atlantic too, stop being such a baby! :P

The first hard freeze of the fall/winter is always tough, especially when it gets so warm in the summer. I'll have you know I played in the snow with no jacket in Texas when there was 20" of it on the ground and the temperature hovered around 10F! Lol.
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Quoting 394. hydrus:
Where ya at.?


Orlando but I am heading to Treasure Island on Saturday and coming back on Monday.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2684
Quoting 381. Astrometeor:


Good luck with those temps hydrus, it got down to 24 here. Have you adjusted to these kinds of lows since your childhood in Florida or are they still a shock?
I should mention I lived in Florida for over 40 years..Childhood included..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20935
Quoting 390. CybrTeddy:
Cold nights are always the absolute best time to do stargazing, especially considering how Comet ISON is falling towards the sun in its rather anti-climatic display so far.


Predicting ISON would be bright this year is worse than the NHC predicting that 2013 would be active. But, I would think it's nearly impossible to predict a comet's future magnitude. Still extremely disappointing. I was hoping for a repeat of Comet McNaught. Yeah...I think I set my expectations WAY too high.
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Quoting 392. StormTrackerScott:


I hope as the temps are going back into the mid to upper 80's come Sunday.

Where ya at.?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20935
Quoting 382. StormTrackerScott:
The 0Z GFS has done a complete 360 with next weeks forecast. Big deep trough is gone on this run.

And I wouldnt call it a bust either..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20935
Quoting 388. hydrus:
It will poof right back in a couple of runs.


I hope as the temps are going back into the mid to upper 80's come Sunday.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2684
Coastal low forming near the east coast of FL this run.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2684
Cold nights are always the absolute best time to do stargazing, especially considering how Comet ISON is falling towards the sun in its rather anti-climatic display so far. The cool air allows the primary optical lenses (or mirrors, depending on what you use) to cool off and really gives some great views of nebulas, outer planets in the solar system, etc. Tonight may not be the best night though, as the waxing gibbous moon is out in show.
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Quoting 359. BaltimoreBrian:


I wonder what the freeze frequency used to be before Orlando got big.


Several times per year, from my research(until 10-20 years ago) and hard freezes were common, not 1 night per year of 30-32F. Outlying areas far outside of the city still experience cold like this, even to the south of town. I'll bet the average annual lowest temp in Orlando 100 years ago was not above 25F (based on how far north on the Peninsula Orlando is). 2010 brought record cold to the area, yet the downtown area did not officially get below 29F.
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Quoting 378. StormTrackerScott:
I was hoping for a cold blast next week but the 0Z GFS went POOF with all the cold air for the US. Go figure.

It will poof right back in a couple of runs.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20935
Quoting 380. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hr 78 gfs rel humity

notice streak in sw pushing east ne ward feeding the flow

Something severe will crop up. Just how much is the 64 trillion dollar question.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20935
Quoting 375. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Says the guy living in a tropical Florida.


I used to live in the mid-Atlantic too, stop being such a baby! :P
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.