Super Typhoon Haiyan's Intensification and Unusually Warm Sub-Surface Waters

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:25 PM GMT on November 13, 2013

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A remarkable warming of the sub-surface Pacific waters east of the Philippines in recent decades, due to a shift in atmospheric circulation patterns and ocean currents that began in the early 1990s, could be responsible for the rapid intensification of Super Typhoon Haiyan. Hurricanes are heat engines, which means they take heat energy out of the ocean, and convert it to kinetic energy in the form of wind. It's well-known that tropical cyclones need surface water temperatures of at least 26.5°C (80°F) to maintain themselves, and that the warmer the water, and the deeper the warm water is, the stronger the storm can get. Deep warm water is important, since as a tropical cyclone tracks over the ocean, it stirs up cooler water from the depths, potentially reducing the intensity of the storm. When both Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita exploded into Category 5 hurricanes as they crossed over a warm eddy in the Gulf of Mexico with a lot of deep, warm water, the concept of the total heat energy available to fuel a hurricane--the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP)--became one that gained wide recognition. The Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines has the largest area of deep, warm water of anywhere on Earth, and these waters have historically fueled the highest incidence of Category 5 storms of anywhere on the planet. Super Typhoon Haiyan tracked over surface waters that were of near-average warmth, 29.5 - 30.5°C (85 - 87°F.) However, the waters at a depth of 100 meters (328 feet) beneath Haiyan during its rapid intensification phase were a huge 3°C above average, according to Professor I-I Lin of the Department of Atmospheric Science at the National Taiwan University. An analysis by the Japan Meteorological Agency for October showed ocean temperatures 4 - 5°C (7 - 9°F) above average during October (Figure 1). This analysis was from a model. When looking at actual measurements made by the Argo float data in early November, the temperatures in the layer 100 meters below the surface under Haiyan were about 3°C above average, not 4 - 5°C, according to Dr. Lin. As the typhoon stirred this unusually warm water to the surface, the storm was likely able to feed off the heat, allowing Haiyan to intensify into one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever observed.


Figure 1. Modeled departure of temperature from average at a depth of 100 meters in the West Pacific Ocean during October 2013, compared to a 1986 - 2008 average. The track and intensity of Super Typhoon Haiyan are overlaid. Haiyan passed directly over large areas of sub-surface water that were much above average in temperature, which likely contributed to the storm's explosive deepening. While this model showed 4 - 5°C departures from average in October, the actual values were closer to 3°C in early November, according to Argo float data. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Why was there such unusually warm sub-surface water?
The sub-surface waters east of the Philippines have warmed dramatically over the past twenty years. According to Pun et al. (2013), "Recent increase in high tropical cyclone heat potential area in the Western North Pacific Ocean", the depth to where ocean temperatures of at least 26°C (79°F) penetrates has increased by 17% since the early 1990s, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential has increased by 13%. The warm-up is due to an increase in the surface winds blowing across the region--the trade winds--which have caused a southward migration and strengthening of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) and the North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC). The strong trade winds have pushed a large amount of water up against the east coast of the Philippines in the past twenty years, resulting in a rate of sea level rise of 10 mm per year--more than triple the global average of 3.1 mm/yr (Figure 2.) This extra sea level rise contributed to the storm surge damage from Super Typhoon Haiyan. Sea level rise data from Legaspi in the Eastern Philippines shows a rise of about 305 mm (12 inches) since 1949. For comparison, global average sea level rose 7.5" (190 mm) since 1901. Part of the rise along the eastern Philippine coast is from tectonic processes--the subsidence of the Philippine plate under the Eurasian plate--but most of it is due to the stronger trade winds piling up warm water along the coast, and the fact that warmer waters expand, raising sea level.


Figure 2. Trend in sea level from satellite altimeter measurements in 1993 - 2010. Black lines are the Sea Surface Height (SSH) in cm from Rio et al. (2009.) Image credit: Qiu, B., and S. Chen, 2012, "Multidecadal sea level and gyre circulation variability in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean", Journal of Physical Oceanography 42.1 (2012): 193-206.

Why have the trade winds sped up?
The surface trade winds in the equatorial Pacific are part of the Walker Circulation--a pattern of rising and sinking air along the Equator that the El Nino/La Nina cycle influences. A strong Walker circulation means there is lower pressure over Indonesia, which pulls in more air at the surface along the Equator from the east, increasing the easterly trade winds. As these trade winds strengthen, they pull surface ocean waters away from South America, allowing cold water to upwell to the surface. This is a La Niña-like situation, which takes heat energy out of the atmosphere, putting it into the ocean, keeping global surface temperatures cooler than they would otherwise be. A weakened Walker circulation is the reverse, resulting in weaker trade winds, and a more El Niño-like situation with higher global surface temperatures. As long as the stronger Walker circulation that has been in place since the early 1990s holds, global surface temperatures should stay cooler than they otherwise would be, prolonging the slow-down in global surface warming that has received much attention this year. There may also be a greater chance of super typhoons and higher storm surges affecting the Philippines, due to the warmer sub-surface waters and re-arranged ocean currents. A 2013 paper by L’Heureux et al. notes that the climate models predict that the Walker circulation should weaken (a more El Niño-like situation)--the reverse of what has been observed the past twenty years. The researchers took the observed pressure patterns over the Pacific in recent decades and removed the atmospheric response to the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The resulting pattern they found showed a steady strengthening of the Walker circulation, in concert with global rising temperatures. So, are we seeing a failure of the climate models? Or is the recent speed-up of the Walker circulation a decades-long temporary "speed bump" in the climate system? Time will tell. It is worth pointing out that a just-released paper by British and Canadian researchers shows that the global surface temperature rise of the past 15 years has been greatly underestimated. As discussed at realclimate.org, "The reason is the data gaps in the weather station network, especially in the Arctic. If you fill these data gaps using satellite measurements, the warming trend is more than doubled in the widely-used HadCRUT4 data, and the much-discussed “warming pause” has virtually disappeared."

I appeared on PBS Newshour last night to discuss the linkages between stronger tropical cyclones and climate change, video here.

References
L’Heureux, Michelle L., Sukyoung Lee, and Bradfield Lyon, 2013, "Recent multidecadal strengthening of the Walker circulation across the tropical Pacific", Nature Climate Change 3.6 (2013): 571-576.

Pun, Iam‐Fei, I‐I. Lin, and Min‐Hui Lo, 2013, "Recent increase in high tropical cyclone heat potential area in the Western North Pacific Ocean", Geophysical Research Letters (2013).

Qiu, B., and S. Chen, 2012, "Multidecadal sea level and gyre circulation variability in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean", Journal of Physical Oceanography 42.1 (2012): 193-206.

Jeff Masters

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636. N3EG
Quoting 587. Patrap:
Chevron

At approximately 9.30 a.m. (CST) today, there was an incident at a Chevron pipeline near Milford, Texas.


Run out and fill your gas tanks NOW. This one's probably good for a 30 cent increase.

/sarcasm
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That wind speed Barbamz is faster than a 747's Takeoff V2 speed.


Why is T/O so fast and short? Well, the aircraft weighs only 260.000 kgs (max = 396.000kgs) in this T/O with only 30.000 kgs of fuel for a flight time of 1hr15min to Curacao (you can see the landing here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5ZLUP... ). With this low weight Vr is 125kts and climbout speed is 155kts(=V2 + 10kts)




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53549
633. yoboi
Quoting 630. whatsup99037:
Post 601

So, whydo folks still want to run a Canadian oil pipeline thru the middle of the U.S.?

And moving fuel by any other means is safer? Moving fuel around is a sloopy business no matter how you do it.

This subject is a lot like airplane and car accidents. When a plane goes down it is major...major press, while a car accident is hardly noticed by anyone. You probably have heard that you are really safer in an air plane than a car right...?

Well the same is true moving fuel around. When they have a pipeline spill it is all over the news, but all the fuel spills from tankers and rail road cars get very little press. Whatever means they use to move fuel it doesn't make a lot of difference because they spill a lot... more is fuel is probably spilled cumulative from tankers and rail cars than by pipeline.

The pipeline project was not cancelled not because Mr Obama is such a big environmentalists, but it was cancelled (imho) to do his friend Warren Buffet a favor. Warren has helped Mr Obama numerous times. Now Warren makes a ton of money moving the fuel ( at a much more expensive rate ) by his rail road.

There are many experts who think that moving fuel by pipeline is probably the safest way:

Some experts have argued oil-by-rail carries a higher risk of accidents and spills.

Minnesota Oil Spill: Canadian Train Derails, Spilling 30,000 Gallons Of Crude In U.S.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/28/minnesot a-oil-spill_n_2967118.html

If you bother to look up fuel tanker spills you will find a lot of spills:

https://www.google.com/search?client=ubuntu&c hann el=fs&q=fuel+tanker+spills&ie=utf-8&oe =utf-8

I know this isn't PC , but moving fuel by pipeline is probably the cheapest and safest way to move it.



Many ask why Mr Buffet bought the rail company in that area......
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Quoting 427. 1900hurricane:

While sea surface temperatures were around average were around average, the depth of the warm water was very anomalous as Dr. Jeff Masters points out. This lead to a very heightened oceanic heat content which was very much above average. In fact, looking at today's current OHC and OHC anomalies, the area Haiyan traversed has a very noticeable reduction in values due to upwelling, or a wake of sorts, which is much more than it is just looking at surface temperatures or anomalies. The presence of such a wake in OHC shows that Haiyan was tapping these very deep warm waters in order to achieve/maintain its extreme intensity, despite a fast forward speed.









As I noted before, a favorable non hostile upper air environment is needed to witness tropical cyclones of Haiyan's magnitude, but the deep warm waters and high OHCs for supplying the tropical thermodynamic engine was paramount.
No. That is not at all an accurate way to determine how much TCHP Haiyan used. Not at all. To see how much TCHP Haiyan used we should look at before and after images.

Here's is TCHP for 00z on the 6th of November (before Haiyan even reached Cat-5 status)




Here's current TCHP




Along Haiyan's track TCHP was 10-12 *10^8 J/m^2 prior to the storm's passing. Now it is around 7-9 *10^8 J/m^2. That is hardly tapping into the anomalous TCHP. A difference of 3-5 *10^8 J/m^2 before and after Haiyan's track indicates that average TCHP (for the region) would've been enough to support Haiyan since TCHP is below average and still 7-8* 10^8 J/m^2. In other words, the anomalous TCHP was irrelevant. Haiyan's fast forward track that meant that it did not tap enough energy from the ocean for the anomalous TCHP to make a difference.

Finally, just to drive the point home, SSTs/OHC will still fully support a Cat 5 in the WPAC. << That is the real consequence of anomalous TCHP in the WPAC (ability to sustain another cat 5 after one just passed).

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Lots of air space.
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Post 601

So, whydo folks still want to run a Canadian oil pipeline thru the middle of the U.S.?

And moving fuel by any other means is safer? Moving fuel around is a sloopy business no matter how you do it.

This subject is a lot like airplane and car accidents. When a plane goes down it is major...major press, while a car accident is hardly noticed by anyone. You probably have heard that you are really safer in an air plane than a car right...?

Well the same is true moving fuel around. When they have a pipeline spill it is all over the news, but all the fuel spills from tankers and rail road cars get very little press. Whatever means they use to move fuel it doesn't make a lot of difference because they spill a lot... more is fuel is probably spilled cumulative from tankers and rail cars than by pipeline.

The pipeline project was not cancelled not because Mr Obama is such a big environmentalists, but it was cancelled (imho) to do his friend Warren Buffet a favor. Warren has helped Mr Obama numerous times. Now Warren makes a ton of money moving the fuel ( at a much more expensive rate ) by his rail road.

There are many experts who think that moving fuel by pipeline is probably the safest way:

Some experts have argued oil-by-rail carries a higher risk of accidents and spills.

Minnesota Oil Spill: Canadian Train Derails, Spilling 30,000 Gallons Of Crude In U.S.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/28/minnesot a-oil-spill_n_2967118.html

If you bother to look up fuel tanker spills you will find a lot of spills:

https://www.google.com/search?client=ubuntu&chann el=fs&q=fuel+tanker+spills&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8

I know this isn't PC , but moving fuel by pipeline is probably the cheapest and safest way to move it.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38110
Quoting 620. bappit:

You are an alarmist. Different style, but you like the adrenaline. I think a lot of denialists actually are alarmists. "It's a global socialist/communist conspiracy!"

It's a double whammy.






huh?
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Super typhoon Yolanda (haiyan) devastated a hospital in Tacloban, Philippines on 8th November 2013. Powerful winds destroying everything inside the hospital.
It happens at 0:15.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 53 Comments: 5918
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38110
The Canadian's don't want what? A pipeline? Oil? That is Poppycock.



isn't it also correct that they don't want that pipeline to run through their country to seaports where they could increase profits with refining and their own transport????
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21581
Sorry if this video (probably) of Haiyan's storm surge coming in already has been posted, but I haven't seen it yet.
The cover photo isn't from the Philippines though, it seems to be derived from the Japan tsunami.


Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 53 Comments: 5918
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well it turned out to be a beautiful day here,sunny, no wind and temps in the mid to high 70's..perfect fall day..
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Quoting 611. PensacolaDoug:




Yeah that was over the top.
Chuckle chuckle snort snort

You are an alarmist. Different style, but you like the adrenaline. I think a lot of denialists actually are alarmists. "It's a global socialist/communist conspiracy!"

It's a double whammy.
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More extensive footage from this church-evacuation center, Tacloban.
(No graphic birth photos in both videos BTW)
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618. CJ5
Quoting 604. indianrivguy:


because the Canadians don't want it, its too unsafe, so the Canadian government is willing to spend millions to convince OUR Government it is safe...



The Canadian's don't want what? A pipeline? Oil? That is Poppycock. The Canadians are doing everything they can to sell oil. They are spending money to convince us to buy bit and pipe it because they need the revenue. It has nothing to do with it being unsafe. Oil exports are down in Canada because of access to markets other than the US and down to the US because of an increase in US production. The Canadians are trying to open markets in China to sell. Several Provinces are looking at massive tax increases because of the loss of billions in revenue due to their declining market.


As far as the original post. It seems to have been a gas pipeline and from the picture it appears to be a well fire/mishap. It is not like those things don't happen on occasion.
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617. NCstu
Quoting 600. whatsup99037:
Post 592

Maybe he's an alarmist at heart.

lol

Post 593

It seems possible that if the JMA does not change their estimate, it could end up that Haiyan is official classified as Cat4.

It could end up a Cat 5...I have no problem with that. What ever it was it was a terrible deadly storm and my prayers are with the poor Philippine people. My main goal here is not to deny reality, but to put things in there proper prospective.




I don't think JMA uses the Cat 1-5 system. That's just an NHC thing, no?
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TS Podul drenching the coast of Vietnam. I hope our blogger from this region won't experience any damage and tell us soon about the storm.
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Few isobars on the Euro..
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'Storm surge' not explained enough - PAGASA official
by Buena Bernal
Rappler, posted on 11/14/2013 7:22 PM | Updated 11/15/2013 2:24 AM

MANILA, Philippines - As far as the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) is concerned, all necessary public warnings were issued before Super Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) unleashed its wrath Friday, November 8.

Ma. Cecilia Monteverde, assistant weather services chief of PAGASA, however, admitted that more could have been done in explaining to the public the magnitude and gravity of a storm surge.

"We weren't able to tackle that. It's more on the signals and in delivering the forecasts and warning distributed to the public. But the storm surge wasn't explained there," Monteverde, speaking in Filipino, told Rappler.

The weather forecaster spoke about information dissemination at a press briefing on Thursday, November 14, organized in Quezon City by disaster preparedness advocates.

Areas declared under Typhoon Signal 1 to Signal 4 - with corresponding descriptions on the impact of each typhoon signal - were outlined by PAGASA in its forecast report a day before Yolanda made its first landfall, in Guiuan, Eastern Samar.

At the bottom of the forecast - in a footnote-like text - is a warning against possible 7-meter high storm surges in areas declared under signals 4, 3, and 2.

In a PAGASA primer, a storm surge is described to have the ability to engulf low-lying coastal communities and bring destruction to natural and man-made structures. Monteverde explained that this destruction causes massive death, if residents stay in coastal areas.

Super Typhoon Yolanda lashed out its fury from Friday to Saturday, washing away homes with storm surges as high as 7 meters and causing deaths in the thousands. ...
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 53 Comments: 5918
From a 1997 paper,

Publisher World Petroleum Congress Language English
Document ID 28293
Content Type Conference Paper
Title [6]5 Stress Corrosion Cracking on Canadian Oil and Gas Pipelines
Authors J. McCarthy,(National Energy Board, Calgary, Alberta, Canada)
Source 15th World Petroleum Congress, October 12 - 17, 1997 , Beijing, China
Copyright 1997. World Petroleum Congress


Preview STRESS CORROSION CRACKING ON CANADIAN OIL AND GAS PIPELINES John McCarthy, Business Leader, Operations, National Energy Board, Calgary, Alberta, Canada, T2P 3H2 Abstract. The National Energy Board (NEB) is Canada's independent federal energy regulatory tribunal. The NEB is responsible for protecting the public interest by regulating specific activities of the oil, natural gas industries including pipeline safety. Following a failure of a natural gas pipeline in July 1995, the NEB initiated a wide ranging inquiry into stress corrosion cracking (SCC). SCC has been reported to be the cause of 22 liquids and natural gas pipeline failures in Canada since 1977. It has also been associated with pipeline failures in Australia, Iran, Iraq, Italy, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia and United States. SCC is a complex time-dependent process where small cracks occur on the surface of the pipe and, over time, link to form a crack large enough to cause the pipe to fail. The paper outlines how a quasi-judicial tribunal such as the NEB dealt with this complex technological public safety issue. The NEB collected information from affected communities, industry associations, pipeline companies, other regulatory agencies and research institutions. The Inquiry concluded with a public hearing. A summary of the findings of the Inquiry is presented. INTRO D U CTIO N Stress corrosion cracking (SCC) is a serious problem for pipeline companies since it can result in the unexpected failure of an operating pipeline with the accompanying potential for loss of life and environmental and property damage. SCC is a failure mechanism which is perhaps of greater concern than many of the other causes of failure because it is rela- tively less understood and less easily detected. This paper outlines the process and findings of the recent National Energy Board Inquiry into Stress Corrosion Cracking on Canadian Oil and Gas Pipelines', (the Inquiry) and provides an overview of the results. The Inquiry was far-reaching across Canadian pipelines and extended to other countries to take advantage of foreign experience and exper- tise. This Inquiry was the first comprehensive one in the world on SCC and the results, as well as provid- ing valuable scientific and technical data that relate to the Canadian situation, could be of interest and use outside Canada. This paper is important because the National Energy Board of Canada (the NEB, the Board), like many regulatory agencies with a responsibility for safety and the protection of the environment, is con- tinually looking for improved and innovative methods to resolve complex technological issues. We must consider the interests of citizens, the land- owners and industry in arriving at a fair, objective and respected solution. The SCC Inquiry was an example of how this was done. The pipeline infrastructure in Canada To set the stage it is useful to paint a picture of the Canadian pipeline infrastructure

Note:, Do not Google, "Canada, cracked, pipe" by mistake like I did.

; )
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nc.. that is great news...thanks!
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Quoting 589. ScottLincoln:

Oh give me a break, Doug. Seriously.

There is clearly a difference between pointing out someone to be often incorrect at sometimes basic science concepts - in their own field, for that matter - and wanting someone to be dead. It's such an obvious, massive difference that I really can't fathom why you'd think to type what you did.




Yeah that was over the top.
Chuckle chuckle snort snort
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I asked yesterday about the estimate of 10,000 people feared dead and was it still realistic..still terrible about the loss of life but good to know that its not was what was originally estimated..


Philippines typhoon: President lowers death toll estimate

The BBC's George Alagiah looks from a helicopter at the damage caused by Typhoon Haiyan
Continue reading the main story
Typhoon Haiyan


Philippine President Benigno Aquino says the death toll from Typhoon Haiyan may be lower than first thought.

Speaking to CNN, he said the number of 10,000 killed was "too high" and the figure was more likely up to 2,500.
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Those who may want to get away from the cold weather can come to Puerto Rico where is warm all year long going to the beaches.





See more cams at my blog.
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Quoting 606. Torito:
20%.



Wont form anyways.
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Quoting 597. bappit:

You are well aware that 10 minute sustained wind speed is not used in the Saffir-Simpson scale. You will not be able to directly apply any JMA determinations to that scale.
Quoting 602. ScottLincoln:

Yes, clearly. I thought JMA had their own scale, but I thought that it was similar. I may need to look it up again. I might be confusing scales that have "cat1, 2... etc" with a scale that just does "typhoon/super typhoon."

I guess the central point is that we have to be really careful on comparing different wind estimates and different wind scales. And we should also be careful being so forceful in "it is 100% cat5" kind of statements.

I dont have time to verify this information, but if the wikipedia article is correct, it probably wouldn't be a "category" anything. Looks like it would be a "Violent Typhoon" on the JMA scale, using their estimate of 145mph 10-minute wind.

For us to compare to most other storms in the other tropical basins, we'd either need to convert that 145mph 10-minute wind to a 1-minute wind, or using a different estimate that was for 1-minute wind. The JTWC advisories had 195mph for 1-minute wind which makes this more comparable to the central/east Pacific and north Atlantic.

Oh boy. Confusing. Seems like we should standardize the scales and the measurement techniques.
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20%.

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Typhoon Haiyan: US carrier boosts Philippines relief effort
BBC 14 November 2013 Last updated at 16:57 GMT
A US aircraft carrier and its escort of two cruisers have arrived off the Philippines coast to help communities devastated by Typhoon Haiyan.
The top US commander in the Philippines told the BBC that US military support would be on an unprecedented scale. ...


UN admits failings in 'Yolanda' aid response
Agence France-Presse
Posted at 11/14/2013 11:28 PM | Updated as of 11/15/2013 1:38 AM

NFA: Sufficient rice supply in typhoon-hit areas
The Philippine Star
Posted at 11/15/2013 2:12 AM | Updated as of 11/15/2013 2:12 AM
MANILA, Philippines - The National Food Authority (NFA) has assured the people that there is ample supply of rice in all areas and regions hit by Super Typhoon Yolanda, and there is no reason for the victims to panic and resort to unlawful activities.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 53 Comments: 5918
Quoting 595. flsky:
So, whydo folks still want to run a Canadian oil pipeline thru the middle of the U.S.?




At approximately 9.30 a.m. (CST) today, there was an incident at a Chevron pipeline near Milford, Texas. n of Italy.


because the Canadians don't want it, its too unsafe, so the Canadian government is willing to spend millions to convince OUR Government it is safe...

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603. yoboi
Quoting 601. Greg01:
Crude oil will move from Canada to refineries on the Gulf Coast. The question becomes - do you want it to be transported via railroad tankers and over the road tanker trucks or via pipeline? The oil will flow.





You are correct here in SWLA & SETX they are spending hundreds of billions of dollars to accept it in 2016 it will flow....th would not be spending that money here for a maybe.....
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Quoting 597. bappit:

You are well aware that 10 minute sustained wind speed is not used in the Saffir-Simpson scale. You will not be able to directly apply any JMA determinations to that scale.

Yes, clearly. I thought JMA had their own scale, but I thought that it was similar. I may need to look it up again. I might be confusing scales that have "cat1, 2... etc" with a scale that just does "typhoon/super typhoon."

I guess the central point is that we have to be really careful on comparing different wind estimates and different wind scales. And we should also be careful being so forceful in "it is 100% cat5" kind of statements.

NOTE: I corrected that original post.
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Crude oil will move from Canada to refineries on the Gulf Coast. The question becomes - do you want it to be transported via railroad tankers and over the road tanker trucks or via pipeline? The oil will flow.


Quoting 595. flsky:
So, whydo folks still want to run a Canadian oil pipeline thru the middle of the U.S.?




At approximately 9.30 a.m. (CST) today, there was an incident at a Chevron pipeline near Milford, Texas. n of Italy.
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Post 592

Maybe he's an alarmist at heart.

lol

Post 593

It seems possible that if the JMA does not change their estimate, it could end up that Haiyan is official classified as Cat4.

It could end up a Cat 5...I have no problem with that. What ever it was it was a terrible deadly storm and my prayers are with the poor Philippine people. My main goal here is not to deny reality, but to put things in there proper prospective.


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Much's of you guys have it wrong
Super typhoon Haiyan
Yes was 195 MPH
Gusting to 235 MPH
at least maybe more maybe less
DID ANYONE HEAR THE WHOLE US PACIFIC COMMAND IS GONIG THERE
USS GEORGE WASHINGTON IS THERE
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Quoting 588. Civicane49
New EPAC invest.


Whoo-Hoo
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Quoting 593. ScottLincoln:

Actually, we should be cautious to be so certain this early in the game, with mere estimates to help us determine intensity, and estimates from different agencies differing.

I don't think it unreasonable to say that, according to current estimates, Haiyan is the strongest known tropical cyclone to make landfall. The estimate from JTWC uses the 1-minute wind which can be compared to 1-minute wind estimates with most other tropical cyclone basins. But, from my understanding it is the JMA that is in charge of operational analysis and tracking of West Pacific systems, and their estimates had Haiyan at 145mph. They do not appear to have any best-track data yet available on their website. The caveat here is that JTWC and JMA use different averaging periods for sustained winds, which is complicating the comparison between different storms and storm categories.

It seems possible that if the JMA does not change their estimate, it could end up that Haiyan is official classified as Cat4.

You are well aware that 10 minute sustained wind speed is not used in the Saffir-Simpson scale. You will not be able to directly apply any JMA determinations to that scale.
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Which agency was it earlier this year that had a depression in its classification of a TC but it ended up being a hurricane? Was it the JMA?

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15140
595. flsky
So, whydo folks still want to run a Canadian oil pipeline thru the middle of the U.S.?




At approximately 9.30 a.m. (CST) today, there was an incident at a Chevron pipeline near Milford, Texas. n of Italy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
594. flsky
Quoting 575. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Perfect weather to catch a cold or get the flu if not careful of what one wears. Up and down we go like a roller coaster. :D

Realistically speaking - don't hang around anyone with an existing cold/flu and wash your hands a lot.
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Quoting 559. reedzone:
Are people actually disagreeing with the fact that Haiyan made landfall as a Cat. 5 storm?? Thats unbelievable... Haiyan was a Cat 5 storm at landfall, period. No arguement should be made on this.
Quoting 560. cRRKampen:

Only climate revisionists. Not people, rest assured.

Actually, we should be cautious to be so certain this early in the game, with mere estimates to help us determine intensity, and estimates from different agencies differing.

I don't think it unreasonable to say that, according to current estimates, Haiyan is the strongest known tropical cyclone to make landfall. The estimate from JTWC uses the 1-minute wind which can be compared to 1-minute wind estimates in other tropical cyclone basins (C/E Pacific, N Atlantic). But, from my understanding it is the JMA that is in charge of operational analysis and tracking of West Pacific systems, and their estimates had Haiyan at 145mph. They do not appear to have any best-track data yet available on their website. The caveat here is that JTWC and JMA use different averaging periods for sustained winds, which is complicating the comparison between different storms and storm categories.

It seems possible that if the JMA does not change their estimate, Haiyan would officially be a 145mph "Violent Typhoon" at landfall, with no associated "category" as we use via NHC., it could end up that Haiyan is official classified as Cat4.
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Quoting 589. ScottLincoln:

Oh give me a break, Doug. Seriously.

There is clearly a difference between pointing out someone to be often incorrect at sometimes basic science concepts - in their own field, for that matter - and wanting someone to be dead. It's such an obvious, massive difference that I really can't fathom why you'd think to type what you did.

Maybe he's an alarmist at heart.
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Quoting 586. PensacolaDoug:
The level of animosity displayed by some posters makes me think they would be perfectly willing to put JB and other skeptics up against a wall for summary execution.

Scary round theses parts.
Gotta love authoritarians.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3619
Post 589

There is clearly a difference between pointing out someone to be often incorrect at sometimes basic science concepts - in their own field, for that matter - and wanting someone to be dead. It's such an obvious, massive difference that I really can't fathom why you'd think to type what you did.

Well said Scott. I hear everyday things I don't want to hear...whether it be from the government, my spouse, etc... makes no difference. All it does is cause me to re-think my position and often it makes me a better person for the whole thought process.
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Quoting 586. PensacolaDoug:
The level of animosity displayed by some posters makes me think they would be perfectly willing to put JB and other skeptics up against a wall for summary execution.

Scary round theses parts.

Oh give me a break, Doug. Seriously.

There is clearly a difference between pointing out someone to be often incorrect at sometimes basic science concepts - in their own field, for that matter - and wanting someone to be dead. It's such an obvious, massive difference that I really can't fathom why you'd think to type what you did.
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New EPAC invest.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep982013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201311141819
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 98, 2013, DB, O, 2013111412, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP982013
EP, 98, 2013111312, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1054W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 98, 2013111318, , BEST, 0, 107N, 1060W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 98, 2013111400, , BEST, 0, 111N, 1066W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 98, 2013111406, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1073W, 30, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 98, 2013111412, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1078W, 30, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 98, 2013111418, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1082W, 30, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

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Chevron



At approximately 9.30 a.m. (CST) today, there was an incident at a Chevron pipeline near Milford, Texas. Chevron has initiated its emergency response procedures and is currently responding to the incident. Chevron's primary concern at this point is to ensure the safety of its employees and the surrounding community. As soon as there are further details, they will be made available.



Pipeline explodes in North Texas; no injuries
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Updated: Thursday, November 14, 2013, 11:01 AM CST


MILFORD, Texas (AP) - A gas pipeline has exploded in rural North Texas, and officials urged residents of a nearby town to evacuate as a precaution.

The Ellis County Sheriff's Office says the explosion Thursday morning involves a Chevron pipeline. It happened at a drill rig near Milford, about 40 miles south of Dallas. Messages left with Chevron were not immediately returned.

Flames could be seen shooting into the air and some vehicles at the worksite had been burned.

Lt. James Salter says authorities have not received any word of injuries.

He said deputies were going door-to-door in Milford, advising people in the town of about 700 to leave.

Milford Independent School District Superintendent Don Clingenpeel says all students and staff were being evacuated to the nearby town of Italy.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
The level of animosity displayed by some posters makes me think they would be perfectly willing to put JB and other skeptics up against a wall for summary execution.

Scary round theses parts.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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