Haiyan is Dead, Better Weather Ahead for the Philippines; 'We Can Stop This Madness'

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on November 12, 2013

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Super Typhoon Haiyan is gone, but not before adding China to its list of ravaged nations in Asia. Haiyan made landfall on the northern Vietnam coast near the Chinese border as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds on Sunday, and spread torrential rains into southern China of up to 38 centimeters (15 inches) over some parts of Guangxi province, which caused up to $700 million in damage to agricultural, forestry, poultry and fishing industries there, said China National Radio. Seven people were killed in China on hard-hit Hainan Island, with three others missing. At least 13 people died and 81 were injured in Vietnam from the storm, said the Voice of Vietnam, the country's national radio broadcaster. Huge 26-foot waves from Haiyan swept 16 people out to sea in Taiwan on Sunday, killing 8 of them, the Chinese news agency Xinhua reported. The devastation wrought by Haiyan in the Philippines is among the most severe punishments ever inflicted by a tropical cyclone in modern history. With an official death toll of 1,774, Haiyan already ranks as the 3rd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. The deadliest typhoon in Philippine history was Typhoon Thelma of 1991, which killed between 5101 - 8000 people, reports wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post on Philippines typhoon history.


Figure 1. Col John Sanchez, Central Command, AFP took these photos from a PAF Nomad aircracft over Guiuan, E. Samar, on November 10, 2013: "Guiuan bore the brunt of Super Typhoon Yolanda at its first landfall Friday. One hundred percent of the structures either had their roofs blown away or sustained major damage. Nearly all coconut trees fell. We saw people in the streets, seemingly dazed. Trucks and cars were left in the streets where they were stopped in their tracks as Yolanda struck. We were probably the first outsiders to fly over the area since Friday and obviously, no relief goods have arrived there yet. It was almost lunchtime but there was no smoke from cooking fires. The 2.4 km runway is clear of debris and could still be used by C130 aircraft." Image credit: Col John Sanchez , Central Command, AFP.

Tropical disturbance 90W leaving the Philippines; better weather ahead
A tropical disturbance that passed over the Philippines Island of Mindanao (Invest 90W), brought heavy rains of 82 mm (3.2 inches) of rain in the 24 hours ending 8am Philippines time Tuesday (7pm Monday EST) to Davao City on Mindanao. Heavy rains fell over the disaster area in the Central Philippines, as well, hampering relief efforts. However, the storm is now leaving the islands, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the east of the Philippines. This will bring several days of dryer weather, with only scattered afternoon thunderstorms, to the disaster zone. The GFS model is not predicting any new tropical cyclones forming in the Western Pacific over the coming seven days. The Japan Meteorological Agency is still classifying 90W as a tropical depression, but the Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has downgraded the depression (which they called Zoraida) to a remnant low, as of 3:30pm their time (2:30am EST.) The disturbance still has a high chance of development into a tropical depression, according to Tuesday's 06 UTC Western Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

Haiyan's place in history
Haiyan hit Guiuan, on the Philippine island of Samar, at 4:40 am local time November 8, 2013 (20:40 UTC November 7.) Three hours before landfall, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) assessed Haiyan’s sustained winds at 195 mph, gusting to 235 mph, making it the 4th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. Satellite loops show that Haiyan weakened only slightly, if at all, in the two hours after JTWC’s advisory, so the super typhoon likely made landfall with winds near 195 mph. The next JTWC intensity estimate, for 00Z UTC November 8, about three hours after landfall, put the top winds at 185 mph. Averaging together these estimates gives a strength of 190 mph an hour after landfall. Thus, Haiyan had winds of 190 - 195 mph at landfall, making it the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history. The previous record was held by the Atlantic's Hurricane Camille of 1969, which made landfall in Mississippi with 190 mph winds.

With Angela Fritz' help, I've put together a list of most intense world tropical cyclones at landfall, using the advisories taken from the National Hurricane Center in the Atlantic and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in the rest of the world's oceans. Both agencies use 1-minute averaging times for their advisories, as opposed to the 10-minute averaging time used to report wind speeds by most international weather agencies and at most international airports. The list is unofficial and may have omissions; email me at jmasters@wunderground.com if you have suggestions for improvement:



"We can stop this madness"
At the annual United Nations talks on developing a global climate treaty, currently underway in Warsaw, Poland, Naderev Saño, the chief representative of the Philippines at the conference, said on Monday: “What my country is going through as a result of this extreme climate event is madness; the climate crisis is madness. We can stop this madness right here in Warsaw.” Saño promised to undergo a hunger strike in solidarity with the storm victims until “a meaningful outcome is in sight.”

I've blogged extensively about the links between hurricanes, typhoons, and climate change, most recently in my August 2013 post, Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns. Since hurricanes are heat engines that take heat energy from the oceans and convert it to the energy of their winds, rising ocean temperatures due to global warming should make the strongest storms stronger, though the poor quality and relatively short length of the global database of hurricanes and typhoons make it difficult to tell if this has already begun to occur. Hurricane scientists expect to see a 2% - 11% increase in the intensity of hurricanes and typhoons (aka tropical cyclones) by 2100. Later this week, I'll have a more detailed look at the conditions that helped fuel the incredible strength of Super Typhoon Haiyan, and discuss possible linkages to climate change.


Video 1. After Super Typhoon Haiyan ravaged the Philippines, climate change representative Yeb Sano pleaded with the world to take immediate, drastic action to reduce climate change-causing carbon dioxide emissions in an emotional speech at the UN's climate meeting in Warsaw, Poland.

The Philippine Red Cross is appealing for donations.

Portlight disaster relief charity is reaching out to disability organizations in the Philippines to provide durable medical equipment. and welcomes donations.

Jeff Masters

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The latest NDRRMC update assess Haiyan's death toll solely in the Philippines at 1,833. This now makes it the second-deadliest tropical cyclone in the history of the Philippines. Tropical Storm Thelma of the 1991 typhoon season remains the deadliest, killing up to 8,165.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31549
Quoting 81. PalmBeachWeather:
Nea?
Oh jeeze, I cannot believe you dredged that dead horse out of its grave and started beating it again.

No, Nea is a guy named Jim from Florida, who has participated at the blog for a long time.

John Lonergan is a guy from New England that I communicate with occasionally, and public records easily verify his identity and location.

Give it up - those two guys are not part of the multi-handle weather/climate troll community. The fact that two different people actually quote real, usually peer-reviewed science - and give links or citations - does not mean that they are the same person.

Can we just talk about weather and climate?
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Tip was an anomaly no matter where you put it, having a 870mb tropical cyclone is incredibly rare. Personally I think Wilma, Monica, and Haiyan were all more intense storms than Tip was at peak imo.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23627
Quoting 272. txag91met:
I don't understand. The planet has warmed up 1C since Typhoon Tip which was much larger Haiyan. Philippines have been hit many times in the past and will continue to get hit. We can't blame this storm on AGW. AGW probably added 0.5% to this storm if that.

My 2 cents.


I cant help but agree with you there on your post.
The only thing is, that without a certain amount of global warming we might not have had this storm in the first place!
Its not what's happening now which is no more than a basis for an on-going argument. Its what's going to happen in a few years time when some of you, who are probably a lot younger than some of us, will have to deal and cope with it.
I sure hope that the 0.5% doesn't get much bigger, otherwise things might start to look a bit fragile.
My 2 pence worth.
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Quoting 289. ncstorm:


yep..my poor trash can has given up and is laying on its side..lost the will to fight..


LOL! You just reminded me of what I may go home to after work tonight. Wonderful. I'll have a million leaves in the pool. Ugh.
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Quoting 288. nash36:


Some pretty strong winds off the Cape there NC.


yep..my poor trash can has given up and is laying on its side..lost the will to fight..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14611
Quoting 287. ncstorm:


Some pretty strong winds off the Cape there NC.
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Quoting 247. Xyrus2000:

[...]
Going along with the Barry Bonds analogy, it would be difficult to attribute any specific home run hit to his steroid use. He hit home runs before without the steroids, so which ones were roid runs and which ones weren't? The steroids increased how often and how hard he hit the home runs, but it would be difficult to point to any particular home run and say "He wouldn't of got that if it wasn't for the steroids".

The denialist equivalent here is someone who says "he would have gotten all those home runs even without steroids". The alarmist equivalent would be "all his home runs were because of steroids!". [...]
It is a terrible analogy, period. Who believes the pitchers were not also on steroids? The backlash experienced by Barry Bonds was from the same source as that experienced by Hank Aaron when he surpassed Babe Ruth.
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DigitalGlobe




By NBC News

Several hours before Typhoon Haiyan made landfall in the Philippines on Nov. 7, DigitalGlobe activated FirstLook, an online service that provides satellite imagery of large scale disasters. Their satellites collected more than 7,300 square miles of imagery in the areas hardest hit by the typhoon — one of the strongest storms to ever make landfall.
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Member Since: June 29, 2013 Posts: 22 Comments: 1967
I'm a little irritated.....

If it's gonna be cold enough to freeze snot, it would be nice to have it accompanied by some snow here! Geez.
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282. txjac
Quoting 280. BahaHurican:
You ain't a lie... normally don't see those temps until after Christmas, if at all...

LOL... this is likely to get me in trouble, but I am laughing at the people in TX who are mad because some old white guy got his younger black cousin to endorse him for some local election out there and people allegedly voted for the old white guy because they thought he was black.... IMO they deserved to be fooled because they shouldn't have been selecting a candidate simply because of his skin colour in the first place.... you'd think people in that area would remember that Cheney and Obama are also cousins, and not be so easily led... lol



LOL, I'm from Texas and it made me laugh when I read about it ...shame on us

Edit ...I guess I should say shame on "some" of us
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2475
Quoting 280. BahaHurican:
You ain't a lie... normally don't see those temps until after Christmas, if at all...

LOL... this is likely to get me in trouble, but I am laughing at the people in TX who are mad because some old white guy got his younger black cousin to endorse him for some local election out there and people allegedly voted for the old white guy because they thought he was black.... IMO they deserved to be fooled because they shouldn't have been selecting a candidate simply because of his skin colour in the first place.... you'd think people in that area would remember that Cheney and Obama are also cousins, and not be so easily led... lol



LOL Baha!!!!!!!

While everyone has the right to vote, some just shouldn't.
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Quoting 237. nash36:
Upper 40's for the high and upper 20's for the low tomorrow here in Charleston, SC. For this area, that is VERY cold for November!!
You ain't a lie... normally don't see those temps until after Christmas, if at all...

LOL... this is likely to get me in trouble, but I am laughing at the people in TX who are mad because some old white guy got his younger black cousin to endorse him for some local election out there and people allegedly voted for the old white guy because they thought he was black.... IMO they deserved to be fooled because they shouldn't have been selecting a candidate simply because of his skin colour in the first place.... you'd think people in that area would remember that Cheney and Obama are also cousins, and not be so easily led... lol

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Member Since: June 29, 2013 Posts: 22 Comments: 1967
I don't think it's Haiyan that people are, hopefully, blaming solely on global warming. I think it's the combination of odd events over the last few years that people are coming to the conclusion. I'm a little remiss about the subject, so I don't like to go too deep into it as I don't like to argue from ignorance (that and people get way too politically charged about the subject). My focus has been, and always will be, tropical cyclones and tornadic events. As long as AGW and blob-watching stay apart from one another, I'm a happy camper.

Getting off the topic of global warming, I think it's interesting how the WPAC has suddenly decided to go nuts after a relatively inactive season in October. We've had Category 4 Danas, Category 3 Nari, Category 4 Wipha, Category 5 Francisco, Category 5 Lekima, Category 3 Krosa, and Category 5 Haiyan all in the last 6 weeks in the WPAC. ACE has gone from a pathetic number to near normal in the Pacific. It's almost like the ENSO-neutral is behaving like an El Nino.

Quoting 275. canyonboy:


With the 1st and second strongest storms tied in wind strength from 40 years ago and third place from 70 years ago? How accurate/available were wind measurements in most of the undeveloped world more than 50 years ago and after WWII to even detect storms? US CO2 emissions are below Kyoto levels due to good ole American fracked natural gas (which I reckon saved Obama from $6 a gallon gasoline). I like how all this heat energy is causing ZERO cyclone activity anywhere in the world today. What delicious irony.


But still with all said, this statement is totally wrong. Only in the Atlantic is tropical activity below normal and the Atlantic contributes a relatively small about of the global percentage of tropical cyclones and that's only this year. 2010, 2011, and 2012 all featured 19 named storms in the Atlantic basin, with almost 100 billion dollars of damage done to North America. Interestingly enough though, the fact ACE is so low this season may be explained to the fact there's no focus of heat in the Atlantic basin, due to the polar regions being so anomalously warm this year. But of course, all this considered, this is probably your map when it comes to tropical cyclone impacts.
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Member Since: June 29, 2013 Posts: 22 Comments: 1967


With the 1st and second strongest storms tied in wind strength from 40 years ago and third place from 70 years ago? How accurate/available were wind measurements in most of the undeveloped world more than 50 years ago and after WWII to even detect storms? US CO2 emissions are below Kyoto levels due to good ole American fracked natural gas (which I reckon saved Obama from $6 a gallon gasoline). I like how all this heat energy is causing ZERO cyclone activity anywhere in the world today. What delicious irony.
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Member Since: June 29, 2013 Posts: 22 Comments: 1967
Brad Panovich WCNC

Snowing like crazy at Charlotte Motor speedway. #snOMG #CLTWX
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14611
I don't understand. The planet has warmed up 1C since Typhoon Tip which was much larger Haiyan. Philippines have been hit many times in the past and will continue to get hit. We can't blame this storm on AGW. AGW probably added 0.5% to this storm if that.

My 2 cents.

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Quoting 216. opal92nwf:
sighhh... Time to go into hibernation
You have exciting named winter storms to look forward to!
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270. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


that is quite the notable well marked low pressure area near Sri Lanka and India.
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But by analogy, if we wait decades to change our ways until we are all ab-so-lutely 100.00% dead certain that any given extreme storm is intensified by AGW... then we're both wrong and pretty much doomed.

What can we do now to be sure that noone can say we made the wrong choice?


Quoting 211. ncstorm:
I sure rather leave this world as a believer in the Word than to walk this earth as an aethist and find out later (because you will) after I close my eyes to this world that I was wrong..

trust..you wont be able to say you were wrong then..
Member Since: June 5, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
Quoting 225. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the religion thing is going to get us no where so it is likely best to move on let indiviuals keep there own beliefs

or maybe yet start a blog of yer own on the subject
Well,here is a new/old subject. A Chronological Listing of Early Weather Events by James A. Marusek, describes historical weather events covering the years 1 A.D. to 1900 A.D. Currently this book is over 1,100 pages long and new material continues to be incorporated into this work daily. This chronology collects weather events from all over the world. Although I think Charles Forte was the first, I like the growing collection part. Cyber Teddy would like the year 1680. That was the last time Ison passed by for a visit. Entire forests of oak trees split, olive trees dying in whole countries, Antigua destroyed,massive drought and flood in China,ect. It was an extreme December to remember.
Member Since: August 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 522
Quoting 265. MTWX:


Got some lake effect going on there!
yeah its all north east and west of me nothing on the ground in Toronto may see a few flurries later tonight but nothing of any significance reports of 10 cm in barrie to as much as 25 cm north of there but just in localize areas where the lake effect snow bands are training
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting 258. ncstorm:
currently 61 degrees here and snow around 9pm..this year has been full of surprises..


Blink and you'll miss it. I'd be looking outside every 30 seconds later this evening not to miss it.
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265. MTWX
Quoting 262. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Got some lake effect going on there!
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting 261. MTWX:


The Low tonight here in Mississippi is forecasted to be 25F.

On another note... Has anyone noticed that Accuweather now has a 45 day extended forecast... LOL!!!
lol so what is it saying for day 44 I want to take note
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
261. MTWX
Quoting 236. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
forecast low of 19f tonight for my region


The Low tonight here in Mississippi is forecasted to be 25F.

On another note... Has anyone noticed that Accuweather now has a 45 day extended forecast... LOL!!!
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currently 61 degrees here and snow around 9pm..this year has been full of surprises..
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It's about time the GFS join the Euro for next weeks cold blast!
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Many reports of snow across the NC Piedmont...got snow shadowed over here in the foothills. Some locations went from near 60 to snow. Teens expected in the mountains tonight.
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Asheville NC near freezing.
Member Since: June 29, 2013 Posts: 22 Comments: 1967
city of barrie web cam about hr north of my location



downtown barrie

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I hope you get snow tropicalanalyst.
Member Since: June 29, 2013 Posts: 22 Comments: 1967


Tonight A slight chance of rain showers, mixing with snow after 9pm, then gradually ending. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 32. Breezy, with a north wind 20 to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14611
Blue!

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31549
Seas 1.3 feet in the open ocean 30 miles offshore. About as low as it gets. But not for long.
Member Since: June 29, 2013 Posts: 22 Comments: 1967
18z GFS..ha!!..this run finally got the snow showing up in my area..







Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14611
Quoting 121. Minnemike:
it is 100% in the alarmist camp.
it's the side of "careful recognition of the complex nature of atmospheric science and climate" that you find deliberation and consideration of multiple factors.
so yes, absolutists, or 'alarmists' do indeed believe it is irrefutably 100% AGW induced.
and that is why they are no more effective in placing argument on the subject than a denialist.
and that is why your question was a fallacy :)


Precisely. I support the science, however I'm always pointing out that it is very difficult to attribute any specific weather event to AGW. AGW does not CAUSE anything. It influences likelihoods of events and their intensities.

Going along with the Barry Bonds analogy, it would be difficult to attribute any specific home run hit to his steroid use. He hit home runs before without the steroids, so which ones were roid runs and which ones weren't? The steroids increased how often and how hard he hit the home runs, but it would be difficult to point to any particular home run and say "He wouldn't of got that if it wasn't for the steroids".

The denialist equivalent here is someone who says "he would have gotten all those home runs even without steroids". The alarmist equivalent would be "all his home runs were because of steroids!". Both are naive, simplistic, and ignorant statements that contribute nothing useful to the conversation. Any serious answer would require very careful study of the hits themselves, the weather conditions, the angle of the hit, the distance, etc. . The final answer would show that it's very likely a majority of the runs were influenced by the steroid use, while some runs very likely would not have happened if it wasn't for the steroid use.

This is similar to the impacts of AGW. Droughts, hurricanes, tornados, floods, etc. have happened before. No one denies this. The issue here is now we're pumping the system with steroids. Most events will be influenced by this to some degree, but tying a specific event to AGW is like tying a specific Barry Bonds home run to steroid use. It takes more than a naive "IT WAS" and "IT WASN'T" to determine such a relationship.
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Quoting 244. PalmBeachWeather:
Mid 60's down here...Brrrr


right now

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 5:00 PM EST Tuesday 12 November 2013
Condition:Partly Cloudy
Pressure:30.4 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:28.4°F
Dewpoint:12.0°F
Humidity:50%
Wind:NW 17 gust 24 mph
Wind Chill: 16
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Quoting 243. nash36:


I need to make a point of getting out there for that. I keep hearing it's well worth the drive.
Not too much there.... A bed and breakfast.... Cute little fishing village
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Quoting 236. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
forecast low of 19f tonight for my region
Mid 60's down here...Brrrr
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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