Haiyan is Dead, Better Weather Ahead for the Philippines; 'We Can Stop This Madness'

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on November 12, 2013

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Super Typhoon Haiyan is gone, but not before adding China to its list of ravaged nations in Asia. Haiyan made landfall on the northern Vietnam coast near the Chinese border as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds on Sunday, and spread torrential rains into southern China of up to 38 centimeters (15 inches) over some parts of Guangxi province, which caused up to $700 million in damage to agricultural, forestry, poultry and fishing industries there, said China National Radio. Seven people were killed in China on hard-hit Hainan Island, with three others missing. At least 13 people died and 81 were injured in Vietnam from the storm, said the Voice of Vietnam, the country's national radio broadcaster. Huge 26-foot waves from Haiyan swept 16 people out to sea in Taiwan on Sunday, killing 8 of them, the Chinese news agency Xinhua reported. The devastation wrought by Haiyan in the Philippines is among the most severe punishments ever inflicted by a tropical cyclone in modern history. With an official death toll of 1,774, Haiyan already ranks as the 3rd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. The deadliest typhoon in Philippine history was Typhoon Thelma of 1991, which killed between 5101 - 8000 people, reports wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post on Philippines typhoon history.


Figure 1. Col John Sanchez, Central Command, AFP took these photos from a PAF Nomad aircracft over Guiuan, E. Samar, on November 10, 2013: "Guiuan bore the brunt of Super Typhoon Yolanda at its first landfall Friday. One hundred percent of the structures either had their roofs blown away or sustained major damage. Nearly all coconut trees fell. We saw people in the streets, seemingly dazed. Trucks and cars were left in the streets where they were stopped in their tracks as Yolanda struck. We were probably the first outsiders to fly over the area since Friday and obviously, no relief goods have arrived there yet. It was almost lunchtime but there was no smoke from cooking fires. The 2.4 km runway is clear of debris and could still be used by C130 aircraft." Image credit: Col John Sanchez , Central Command, AFP.

Tropical disturbance 90W leaving the Philippines; better weather ahead
A tropical disturbance that passed over the Philippines Island of Mindanao (Invest 90W), brought heavy rains of 82 mm (3.2 inches) of rain in the 24 hours ending 8am Philippines time Tuesday (7pm Monday EST) to Davao City on Mindanao. Heavy rains fell over the disaster area in the Central Philippines, as well, hampering relief efforts. However, the storm is now leaving the islands, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the east of the Philippines. This will bring several days of dryer weather, with only scattered afternoon thunderstorms, to the disaster zone. The GFS model is not predicting any new tropical cyclones forming in the Western Pacific over the coming seven days. The Japan Meteorological Agency is still classifying 90W as a tropical depression, but the Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has downgraded the depression (which they called Zoraida) to a remnant low, as of 3:30pm their time (2:30am EST.) The disturbance still has a high chance of development into a tropical depression, according to Tuesday's 06 UTC Western Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

Haiyan's place in history
Haiyan hit Guiuan, on the Philippine island of Samar, at 4:40 am local time November 8, 2013 (20:40 UTC November 7.) Three hours before landfall, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) assessed Haiyan’s sustained winds at 195 mph, gusting to 235 mph, making it the 4th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. Satellite loops show that Haiyan weakened only slightly, if at all, in the two hours after JTWC’s advisory, so the super typhoon likely made landfall with winds near 195 mph. The next JTWC intensity estimate, for 00Z UTC November 8, about three hours after landfall, put the top winds at 185 mph. Averaging together these estimates gives a strength of 190 mph an hour after landfall. Thus, Haiyan had winds of 190 - 195 mph at landfall, making it the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history. The previous record was held by the Atlantic's Hurricane Camille of 1969, which made landfall in Mississippi with 190 mph winds.

With Angela Fritz' help, I've put together a list of most intense world tropical cyclones at landfall, using the advisories taken from the National Hurricane Center in the Atlantic and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in the rest of the world's oceans. Both agencies use 1-minute averaging times for their advisories, as opposed to the 10-minute averaging time used to report wind speeds by most international weather agencies and at most international airports. The list is unofficial and may have omissions; email me at jmasters@wunderground.com if you have suggestions for improvement:



"We can stop this madness"
At the annual United Nations talks on developing a global climate treaty, currently underway in Warsaw, Poland, Naderev Saño, the chief representative of the Philippines at the conference, said on Monday: “What my country is going through as a result of this extreme climate event is madness; the climate crisis is madness. We can stop this madness right here in Warsaw.” Saño promised to undergo a hunger strike in solidarity with the storm victims until “a meaningful outcome is in sight.”

I've blogged extensively about the links between hurricanes, typhoons, and climate change, most recently in my August 2013 post, Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns. Since hurricanes are heat engines that take heat energy from the oceans and convert it to the energy of their winds, rising ocean temperatures due to global warming should make the strongest storms stronger, though the poor quality and relatively short length of the global database of hurricanes and typhoons make it difficult to tell if this has already begun to occur. Hurricane scientists expect to see a 2% - 11% increase in the intensity of hurricanes and typhoons (aka tropical cyclones) by 2100. Later this week, I'll have a more detailed look at the conditions that helped fuel the incredible strength of Super Typhoon Haiyan, and discuss possible linkages to climate change.


Video 1. After Super Typhoon Haiyan ravaged the Philippines, climate change representative Yeb Sano pleaded with the world to take immediate, drastic action to reduce climate change-causing carbon dioxide emissions in an emotional speech at the UN's climate meeting in Warsaw, Poland.

The Philippine Red Cross is appealing for donations.

Portlight disaster relief charity is reaching out to disability organizations in the Philippines to provide durable medical equipment. and welcomes donations.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 491. StormTrackerScott:


9" from this same set up in your area back in early May of this year.


True dat.

9.66", 2.44", and 2.79" from May 2-4. When I woke up the morning of the 2nd to check my rain gauge, I was shocked to see it was almost full.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Been a struggle to get cool air into C & S FL SO FAR.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
430 AM EST WED NOV 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...WINDY AND COOLER TODAY WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE/SURF CONDITIONS...

...SOME BEACH EROSION LIKELY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL
SHIFT SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY LATE MORNING WITH A STRONG SURGE
IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACCOMPANYING THIS BOUNDARY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
COASTAL LOCATIONS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH AND GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH AT
TIMES. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST TODAY AND
ACROSS ORANGE/SEMINOLE COUNTIES WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORIES IN PLACE
FOR THE REST OF THE INTERIOR.

CIRRUS DECK GENERATED BY U/L JET ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND DEVELOPING
MARINE STRATOCU THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATER IN THE DAY WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. INCREASING WIND FLOW
WILL ALSO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS
THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND MAINLY IMPACT THE COAST. CLOUDS AND
STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS NOT BREAKING OUT OF THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FROM MELBOURNE AREA SOUTHWARD WHERE TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW
70S.

WITH GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC...VERY ROUGH SURF WILL
OCCUR ALONG THE COAST MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AT
THE BEACH. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION WILL LIKELY OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY IN VULNERABLE LOCATIONS AND DURING HIGH TIDES. A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE PAST
SUNSET BUT STILL REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE COAST. A FEW ONSHORE MOVING
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
BEFORE REACHING THE INTERIOR. COOLER AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE TEMPS AS
LOW AS THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS LAKE/INLAND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES. HOWEVER MILDER TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED AT THE
COAST (SOUTH OF THE CAPE) DUE TO ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW.

THU-SUN...MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS QUICKLY BY THU...WITH A WEAK
H50 SHORT WAVE TROUGH ZIPPING BY IN WSW FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER AL/GA/SC WILL EXPAND EWD
INTO THE ATLC CAUSING STOUT LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW TO VEER TO EASTERLY
ON THU...ESE FRI/SAT...AND SERLY BY SUN. INCREASING MOISTURE COUPLED
WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO 30-40
PCT THU THROUGH FRI...FALLING BACK TO 20 COAST/30 INLAND FOR SUN
AS MID LEVEL RIDGE AND DRIER AIR BUILD IN. MAX TEMPS THU IN THE L70S
FOR VOLUSIA CO...M-U70S ELSEWHERE...RISING INTO U70S-L80S FRI-SAT
AND L-M80S ON SUN. LAST VESTIGES OF COOL AIR OVER THE FAR INTERIOR
THU (U50S) WITH 60S ELSEWHERE...THEN MOSTLY U60S INLAND/L70S COAST
IN RETURN FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF ATLC HIGH.

SUN-WED...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH TUE WITH RAIN CHCS
20-30 PCT. NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-EARLY WED MORNING...
WITH YET ANOTHER VERY BRIEF SHOT OF MODIFIED COOLER AIR ON TAP FOR
WED MORNING-AFTERNOON. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THIS YEAR YET TO HAVE
SIGNIFICANT (FULL-LAT) AMPLITUDE TO MAKE ENOUGH OF A DENT IN THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA TO PRODUCE NW H50 WINDS AND REALLY DRIVE
SURFACE HIGHS S/SE RATHER THAN TURNING EASTWARD AND CROSSING THE
LWR-MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WE`RE MORE LIKELY TO SEE THAT TAKE PLACE
IN THE DEC-FEB TIME FRAME.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 9222
Quoting 438. LargoFl:
Global Warming?? you could have fooled me THIS morning..
Mother Nature opened the freezer door, and ya got some..It was 20 degrees here on the plateau this morning, and my barometer is 30.65 inches. That is the highest I have seen in quite some time.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 25114
Quoting 489. StAugustineFL:
I'm in NE FL as well and the area mets call them "local nor'easters". Generally they occur when there's a strong pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and a front/troughiness to the south. We experience stiff northeast winds, beach erosion, coastal flooding, and in some cases, intense rainfall mainly confined to the coastal counties. I had over 12" of rain from such a set up a few years ago.


9" from this same set up in your area back in early May of this year.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 9222
Quoting 489. StAugustineFL:
I'm in NE FL as well and the area mets call them "local nor'easters". Generally they occur when there's a strong pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and a front/troughiness to the south. We experience stiff northeast winds, beach erosion, coastal flooding, and in some cases, intense rainfall mainly confined to the coastal counties. I had over 12" of rain from such a set up a few years ago.

I think I know the one you are talking about. The intersection just north of SR 207 and US1 was underwater, and the soda machines there floated away.
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I'm in NE FL as well and the area mets call them "local nor'easters". Generally they occur when there's a strong pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and a front/troughiness to the south. We experience stiff northeast winds, beach erosion, coastal flooding, and in some cases, intense rainfall mainly confined to the coastal counties. I had over 12" of rain from such a set up a few years ago.
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Good Morning/Evening.

I see the trolls are out trying to blanket misinformation here today.

No, you cannot observe global anything from the end of one bay or lake.

No, the sun has not changed its radiation output.

Yes, a storm of unprecedented strength at landfall has devastated large areas across south east Asia.

Yes, people want commitments and meaningful plans for effective change.

Like Sandy's remarkable size, this storm had remarkable strength. The oceans have warmed and this is changing storm development.

(edit) Georgia already is ocean front property...go to Savannah.
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Quoting 486. KoritheMan:


Some Nor'easters do start out in the Gulf, though. So... :P

I just know that most beach refurbishment here has come about as a result of the damage driven by the stronger northeastern winds, with severe erosion along the beaches of our barrier island.
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Quoting 485. NEFLWATCHING:
Korithe, I cannot say whether what they call northeasters here originate in the Gulf, I am located on the Atlantic side of the state, and mostly we get these conditions with strong northeast conditions as a result of the cold fronts that drop down across the US dipping south.


Some Nor'easters do start out in the Gulf, though. So... :P
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Korithe, I cannot say whether what they call northeasters here originate in the Gulf, I am located on the Atlantic side of the state, and mostly we get these conditions with strong northeast conditions as a result of the cold fronts that drop down across the US dipping south.
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Quoting 478. NEFLWATCHING:
I cannot say whether they are true northeasters in the technical sense, but yes, the weather folks use that term anyway. We get the strong winds and the higher tides. I watched one day as the waves lifted heavy boulders from the shoreline next to St. Augustine pier and roll them across the roadway. The state lost part of the original A1A that day, and they never repaired it.


I doubt a true Nor'easter can exist in the Gulf of Mexico, since it seems like the temperature gradients would be greater north of about 30N. The Gulf of Mexico provides an extreme moderating contribution to the vertical temperature profiles, making significant baroclinic intensification difficult (in most cases, though it's definitely not unheard of to have a cold low superimposed atop a surface low, and the hypothetical storm could derive some baroclinity that way).
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Quoting 480. FunnelVortex:


Yeah, so.


That means blocking is setting up. Warm air moves north toward Alaska & Greenland while cold Arctic air is pushed south deep into the US.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 9222
Quoting 479. StormTrackerScott:
This is the end of November and notice the ridge over Alaska and notice this ridge South of Greenland.


This is as zonal a circulation pattern as you normally only see on the southern hemisphere.
Member Since: April 3, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 399
Now you add Arctic Air moving over Lake temps that are in the mid 50's well this spells a recipe for a major snow dump next week across the Great Lakes as an Arctic airmass is poised to arrive early to mid next week.


Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 9222
Quoting 479. StormTrackerScott:
This is the end of November and notice the ridge over Alaska and notice this ridge South of Greenland.



Yeah, so.
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This is the end of November. Notice the ridge over Alaska and notice this ridge South of Greenland.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 9222
Quoting 477. FunnelVortex:


Noreasters can go that far south?
I cannot say whether they are true northeasters in the technical sense, but yes, the weather folks use that term anyway. We get the strong winds and the higher tides. I watched one day as the waves lifted heavy boulders from the shoreline next to St. Augustine pier and roll them across the roadway. The state lost part of the original A1A that day, and they never repaired it.
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Quoting 476. NEFLWATCHING:

I have seen northeasters do significant damage here in St. Augustine. I think they are worse in some ways because they hit here more frequently. But I have never cared for the term "nor'easter". Vanna, I'd like to buy a couple of consonants"...


Noreasters can go that far south?
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Quoting 466. FunnelVortex:


In the future a Nor'easter could have as big of a storm surge threat as a hurricane.

I have seen northeasters do significant damage here in St. Augustine. I think they are worse in some ways because they hit here more frequently. But I have never cared for the term "nor'easter". Vanna, I'd like to buy a couple of consonants"...
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Quoting 472. hydrus:
If our economy is not strong, we wont build a thing and the ocean will take back the land.


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Rest of November & December looks extremely cold for the US. As major blocking is beginning to set up across the US & Europe.

So far in November and December looks much colder than this per the Euro


December forecast. Brrrr!!

Notice the ridging over Alaska. Gonna be long harsh Winter folks!
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 9222
Quoting 470. hydrus:
They already do in my opinion. We lost our Grandparents house in the Nor,easter of December 1992..it was a total loss.


The December 1992 nor'easter produced record high tides and snowfall across the northeastern United States. It developed as a low pressure area on December 10 over Virginia, and for two days it remained over the Mid-Atlantic states before moving offshore. In Maryland, the snowfall unofficially reached 48 in (1,200 mm); if verified, the total would have been the highest in the state's history. About 120,000 people were left without power in the state due to high winds. Along the Maryland coast, the storm was less severe than the Perfect Storm in the previous year, although the strongest portion of the storm remained over New Jersey for several days. In the state, winds reached 80 mph (130 km/h) in Cape May, and tides peaked at 10.4 ft (3.2 m) in Perth Amboy. The combination of high tides and 25 ft (7.6 m) waves caused the most significant flooding in the state since the Ash Wednesday Storm of 1962. Several highways and portions of the New York City Subway and Port Authority Trans-Hudson systems were closed due to the storm. Throughout New Jersey, the nor'easter damaged about 3,200 homes and caused an estimated $750 million in damage (1992 USD).

The nor'easter increased tides across the northeastern United States for several days due to its slow movement. In New York City, tides reached 8.04 ft (2.45 m) at Battery Park, which flooded Franklin D. Roosevelt East River Drive. Along Long Island, the nor'easter destroyed over 130 homes and left 454,000 people without power. In New England, 230,684 people lost power during the storm. Five houses were destroyed in Massachusetts, and flooding reached 5 ft (1.5 m) deep in Boston. Further inland, the storm produced significant snowfall, estimated at around 4 ft (1.2 m) in The Berkshires. The high snow totals closed schools for a week in western Massachusetts. Overall, the storm caused between $1–2 billion in damage (1992 USD) and 19 deaths, of which four were directly related to the storm. In March of the following year, the Storm of the Century caused worse damage across a larger region of the eastern United States.


It seems as if 1991-1993 had a record nor'easter for each year.
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Quoting 469. FunnelVortex:


We need to build an entire levee system along the entire coast if sea levels continue to rise.
If our economy is not strong, we wont build a thing and the ocean will take back the land.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 25114
471. ARiot
Quoting 465. NCstu:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-sci en ce/sun-activity-is-in-free-fall-but-you-shouldnt-e xpect-a-new-little-ice-age/2013/11/11/19166b42-459 9-11e3-a196-3544a03c2351_story.html

"less solar activity can slow the jet stream, triggering extreme weather events such as the Russian heat wave of 2010 and the devastating floods in Pakistan that same year."

That seems like a bit of a stretch. Does anyone else know anything about solar activity?


There are some journal articles on solar activity worth searching out; however, most of the peer-reviewed stuff about regional or global ice ages I have read says if CO2 stays as high as it is, we're pushing off formation of glaciers.

There was also a dust up in the journals over some minority studies that indicated a shut down of the Gulf Stream due to icewater melt, resulting in a EU glacier event (they made a fictional movie about it, Day After Tomorrow).

When I see a news article like that one, I always go try to read the paper, and I look for summaries of work to see if it's a significant minority view -- or if it is supported by other work. That way, I never get tricked by "single study fixation"
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Quoting 466. FunnelVortex:


In the future a Nor'easter could have as big of a storm surge threat as a hurricane.
They already do in my opinion. We lost our Grandparents house in the Nor,easter of December 1992..it was a total loss.


The December 1992 nor'easter produced record high tides and snowfall across the northeastern United States. It developed as a low pressure area on December 10 over Virginia, and for two days it remained over the Mid-Atlantic states before moving offshore. In Maryland, the snowfall unofficially reached 48 in (1,200 mm); if verified, the total would have been the highest in the state's history. About 120,000 people were left without power in the state due to high winds. Along the Maryland coast, the storm was less severe than the Perfect Storm in the previous year, although the strongest portion of the storm remained over New Jersey for several days. In the state, winds reached 80 mph (130 km/h) in Cape May, and tides peaked at 10.4 ft (3.2 m) in Perth Amboy. The combination of high tides and 25 ft (7.6 m) waves caused the most significant flooding in the state since the Ash Wednesday Storm of 1962. Several highways and portions of the New York City Subway and Port Authority Trans-Hudson systems were closed due to the storm. Throughout New Jersey, the nor'easter damaged about 3,200 homes and caused an estimated $750 million in damage (1992 USD).

The nor'easter increased tides across the northeastern United States for several days due to its slow movement. In New York City, tides reached 8.04 ft (2.45 m) at Battery Park, which flooded Franklin D. Roosevelt East River Drive. Along Long Island, the nor'easter destroyed over 130 homes and left 454,000 people without power. In New England, 230,684 people lost power during the storm. Five houses were destroyed in Massachusetts, and flooding reached 5 ft (1.5 m) deep in Boston. Further inland, the storm produced significant snowfall, estimated at around 4 ft (1.2 m) in The Berkshires. The high snow totals closed schools for a week in western Massachusetts. Overall, the storm caused between $1–2 billion in damage (1992 USD) and 19 deaths, of which four were directly related to the storm. In March of the following year, the Storm of the Century caused worse damage across a larger region of the eastern United States.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 25114
Quoting 467. Patrap:
Indeed hydrus..your correct...and G' Morn as well.

And as here, a vital artery, the Port,the "Deep Water Port"..well, it only took 8 years and 14.5 Billion dollars to slap a new Surge Protection Fence around it by the Corps o Engineers.

They going to be the growth engineering Folks the next 50 years so I suggest any young engineering minds look their way.

Money beaucoup'' and helping save lives all in one.




We need to build an entire levee system along the entire coast if sea levels continue to rise.
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Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 25114
Indeed hydrus..your correct...and G' Morn as well.

And as here, a vital artery, the Port,the "Deep Water Port"..well, it only took 8 years and 14.5 Billion dollars to slap a new Surge Protection Fence around it by the Corps o Engineers.

They going to be the growth engineering Folks the next 50 years so I suggest any young engineering minds look their way.

Money beaucoup'' and helping save lives all in one.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134829
Quoting 463. hydrus:
456. Patrap 12:55 PM GMT on November 13, 2013 +1
South Florida Faces Ominous Prospects From Rising Waters


Good morning Pat..The ecosystem within the Everglades is delicate. Years ago, I spent a lot of time down there exploring the wildlife, fishing, and even working. Everglades City was a party spot back then. I have always known though that they would disappear in short order in the future due to sea rise. Florida for all practical purposes is an ancient beach, created over millions of years from rising and falling sea levels.The ocean will likely inundate large part of Southern Florida due to Eustatic Rise. Storm surges will keep getting worse for all cities along the coast of the U.S.


In the future a Nor'easter could have as big of a storm surge threat as a hurricane.
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465. NCstu
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-scien ce/sun-activity-is-in-free-fall-but-you-shouldnt-e xpect-a-new-little-ice-age/2013/11/11/19166b42-459 9-11e3-a196-3544a03c2351_story.html

"less solar activity can slow the jet stream, triggering extreme weather events such as the Russian heat wave of 2010 and the devastating floods in Pakistan that same year."

That seems like a bit of a stretch. Does anyone else know anything about solar activity?
Member Since: August 7, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 432
It might be a rainy Friday afternoon across FL as a lot of rain is sitting just off of Tampa at 60hrs.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 9222
456. Patrap 12:55 PM GMT on November 13, 2013 +1
South Florida Faces Ominous Prospects From Rising Waters


Good morning Pat..The ecosystem within the Everglades is delicate. Years ago, I spent a lot of time down there exploring the wildlife, fishing, and even working. Everglades City was a party spot back then. I have always known though that they would disappear in short order in the future due to sea rise. Florida for all practical purposes is an ancient beach, created over millions of years from rising and falling sea levels.The ocean will likely inundate large part of Southern Florida due to Eustatic Rise. Storm surges will keep getting worse for all cities along the coast of the U.S.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 25114
November 11, 2013, 5:36
From the Philippines to Haiti, Disaster Recovery is a Way of Life
By ANDREW C. REVKIN



For many millions of people living in the planet’s poorest, most populous places, a state of recovery from what used to be called “natural” disasters has become the norm, not some exceptional circumstance. The central Philippines, now reeling from the impact of Typhoon Haiyan, a super storm if ever there was one, are just the latest place in which huge human losses follow a disaster that, in a rich country, would almost assuredly mainly exact a financial toll. See Keith Bradsher’s wrenching reports here and here for details on the damage. And the immediate search and rescue efforts are just a warmup for years of relocation, recovery and rebuilding.

For another example, consider the continuing struggles of hundreds of thousands of Haitians nearly four years after the devastating Port au Prince earthquake. (A great start is “Years After Haiti Quake, Safe Housing Is a Dream for Many.”) They are half a world away, but in the same world in many ways. My 2011 piece on “The Varied Costs of Catastrophe” explains what’s up.

In other parts of the Philippines, town-size resettlement and training centers have been established to deal with a rotating population of evacuees and resettled slum dwellers. I visited one near Manila, a town called Calauan, in 2012:



The video shows a Salesian priest, Father Salvador Pablo, and others trying to help thousands of dislocated families build new futures. His team offers a mix of job training programs — in fields ranging from shoemaker to bodyguard. Father Pablo is a remarkable character, a true machine gun preacher, who has run a security service and bodyguard training program for 30 years and has become a proficient marksmen in the process.

Sadly, this is bound to be a growth industry for decades to come.

I wrote about “The Varied Costs of Catastrophe” after Japan’s devastating earthquake and tsunami, comparing the human and financial losses to those from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

In the first days of 2005, after writing a long team-reported account about the march of waves after the great earthquake off Sumatra, I wrote an essay, “The Future of Calamity,” laying out the mix of factors leading to outsize losses when flood waters rise or tectonic plates heave. Here’s the core thought:

Many more such disasters – from earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, to floods, mudslides and droughts – are likely to devastate countries already hard hit by poverty and political turmoil.

The world has already seen a sharp increase in such “natural” disasters – from about 100 per year in the early 1960’s to as many as 500 per year by the early 2000’s, said Daniel Sarewitz, a professor of science and society at Arizona State University.

But it is not that earthquakes and tsunamis and other such calamities have become stronger or more frequent. What has changed is where people live and how they live there, say many experts who study the physics of such events or the human responses to their aftermath.

As new technology allows, or as poverty demands, rich and poor alike have pushed into soggy floodplains or drought-ridden deserts, built on impossibly steep slopes, and created vast, fragile cities along fault lines that tremble with alarming frequency.

In that sense, catastrophes are as much the result of human choices as they are of geology or hydrology.
The future is now.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134829
461. ARiot
28 degrees at the top of the bay in MD.
I'm observing global cooling.

Earlier, I was walking the dog and observed global brightening.

My neighbor said a scientist told him it will get dark again around 5 p.m. I called him an alarmist darkenista. It'll be bright like it is now forever. I'm sure.


Some people crack me up. :-)
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It's hard to get cool air down to C & S FL. Back to the mid 80's we go. Beach Weather!!

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 9222
64 here in Orlando with winds gusting to 20mph. It's a struggle to get really cool air past N FL as when the fronts move by the winds quickly veer to the NE blowing over water temps that are still in the mid 70's so as a result we don't get to experience the cold that the rest of the Country gets to feel. I will take the low 60's in the morning tho as that is cooler than it has been in a long time.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 9222
Patrap most people don't realize Georgia could be ocean front property in the near future.
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Quoting 435. pcola57:


Morning FLW..
No oasis where I'm at in Florida..
35 degrees here with a feels like of 25..
Winds 17mph gusting to 26..
It's all relative haha.
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South Florida Faces Ominous Prospects From Rising Waters

By NICK MADIGAN
November 10, 2013
MIAMI BEACH — In the most dire predictions, South Florida’s delicate barrier islands, coastal communities and captivating subtropical beaches will be lost to the rising waters in as few as 100 years.

Further inland, the Everglades, the river of grass that gives the region its fresh water, could one day be useless, some scientists fear, contaminated by the inexorable advance of the salt-filled ocean. The Florida Keys, the pearl-like strand of islands that stretches into the Gulf of Mexico, would be mostly submerged alongside their exotic crown jewel, Key West.

“I don’t think people realize how vulnerable Florida is,” Harold R. Wanless, the chairman of the geological sciences department at the University of Miami, said in an interview last week. “We’re going to get four or five or six feet of water, or more, by the end of the century. You have to wake up to the reality of what’s coming.”

Concern about rising seas is stirring not only in the halls of academia but also in local governments along the state’s southeastern coast.


The four counties there — Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe and Palm Beach, with a combined population of 5.6 million — have formed an alliance to figure out solutions.

Long battered by hurricanes and prone to flooding from intense thunderstorms, Florida is the most vulnerable state in the country to the rise in sea levels.

Even predictions more modest than Professor Wanless’s foresee most of low-lying coastal Florida subject to increasingly frequent floods as the polar ice caps melt more quickly and the oceans surge and gain ground.

Much of Florida’s 1,197-mile coastline is only a few feet above the current sea level, and billions of dollars’ worth of buildings, roads and other infrastructure lies on highly porous limestone that leaches water like a sponge.


But while officials here and in other coastal cities, many of whom attended a two-day conference on climate change last week in Fort Lauderdale, have begun to address the problem, the issue has gotten little traction among state legislators in Tallahassee.

The issue appears to be similarly opaque to segments of the community — business, real estate, tourism — that have a vested interest in protecting South Florida’s bustling economy.

“The business community for the most part is not engaged,” said Wayne Pathman, a Miami land-use lawyer and Chamber of Commerce board member who attended the Fort Lauderdale conference. “They’re not affected yet. They really haven’t grasped the possibilities.”

It will take a truly magnificent effort, Mr. Pathman said, to find answers to the critical issues confronting the area. Ultimately, he said, the most salient indicator of the crisis will be the insurance industry’s refusal to handle risk in coastal areas here and around the country that are deemed too exposed to rising seas.

“People tend to underestimate the gravity here, I think, because it sounds far off,” said Ben Strauss, the director of the Program on Sea Level Rise at Climate Central, an independent organization of scientists. “People are starting to tune in, but it’s not front and center. Miami is a boom town now, but in the future that I’m very confident will come, it will be obvious to everyone that the sea is marching inland and it’s not going to stop.”

The effects on real estate value alone could be devastating, Dr. Strauss said. His research shows that there is about $156 billion worth of property, and 300,000 homes, on 2,120 square miles of land that is less than three feet above the high tide line in Florida.

At that same level, Dr. Strauss said, Florida has 2,555 miles of road, 35 public schools, one power plant and 966 sites listed by the Environmental Protection Agency, such as hazardous waste dumps and sewage plants.

The amount of real estate value, and the number of properties potentially affected, rises incrementally with each inch of sea-level rise, he said.

Professor Wanless insists that no amount of engineering proposals will stop the onslaught of the seas. “At two to three feet, we start to lose everything,” he said.

The only answer, he said, is to consider drastic measures like establishing a moratorium on development along coastal areas and to compel residents whose homes are threatened to move inland.

Local officials say they are doing what they can. Jason King, a consultant for the Seven50 Southeast Florida Prosperity Plan, an economic blueprint for seven southeastern counties over the next half-century, said it proposed further replenishing of beaches and mangrove forests, raising roads, and building flood-control gates, backflow preventers and higher sea walls.

Here on Miami Beach, a densely populated 7.5-square-mile barrier island that already becomes flooded in some areas each time there is a new moon or a heavy rain, city officials have approved a $200 million project to retrofit its overwhelmed storm-water system, which now pumps floodwaters onto the island when it should be draining them off, and make other adjustments.

“The sky is not falling, but the water is rising,” said Charles Tear, the Miami Beach emergency management coordinator, who stood at an intersection at the edge of Maurice Gibb Park, just two feet above sea level, that floods regularly.

Mr. Tear said he and other city officials were focused on the more conservative prediction that the seas will rise by five to 15 inches over the next 50 years.

“We can’t look at 100 years,” he said. “We have to look at the realistic side.”

James F. Murley, the executive director of the South Florida Regional Planning Council, was similarly unmoved by the more calamitous predictions.

“We’re not comfortable looking at 2100,” he said, noting that for planning purposes he adhered to a projection that foresaw two feet of sea-level rise by 2060.

Whatever the specifics of the predictions, the Miami Beach city manager, Jimmy L. Morales, said he and his staff had to consider whether “we should adopt more aggressive assumptions” about the effects of climate change.

Officials here are seeking advice from the Netherlands, famous for its highly effective levees and dikes, but the very different topography of Miami Beach and its sister coastal cities does not lend itself to the fixes engineered by the Dutch.

“Ultimately, you can’t beat nature, but you can learn to live with it,” Mr. Morales said. “Human ingenuity is incredible, but do we have the political will? Holland sets aside $1 billion a year for flood mitigation, and we have a lot more coastline than they do.”

Correction: November 10, 2013
An earlier version of a picture caption with this article misstated the year by which the sea level could rise five or six feet, or more. The year is 2100, not 2010.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134829
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST WED NOV 13 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NNNN

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I gave them to a local Charity for the Homeless, and they actually came and got them about one Hour after a Craiglist post I made.


Morning to you as well.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134829
Quoting 444. Torito:


Morning, Fellow Marylander. :3

Washington DC on the 9th this month.

Um I'm a Washingtonian :).Good morning.I can assure you that is not D.C in the photo.
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Quoting 450. Patrap:
38F

Per-fect'

Brrrr


Morning Pat..
Did you save the Frescas from a doom scenario??
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38F

Per-fect'

Brrrr
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134829
!!!!:):):)
A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a temperature rising to near 73 by 10am, then falling to around 67 during the remainder of the day. Windy, with a northeast wind 16 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph.
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Quoting 445. Neapolitan:
Historic, yes. But I prefer a different word: unprecedented.




Well then, You need to tell that guy!
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Tomorrow's TCFP:

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Dr. Masters on PBS Newshour last night

The sheer deadly power of the Philippines typhoon has cast a fresh spotlight on the question, are storms getting stronger as the planet gets warmer? To examine the science of super storms, Gwen Ifill talks to Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research and Jeff Masters of Weather Underground.


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Quoting 439. ncstorm:
Wilmington, NC record made Good Morning America news this morning..

Meteorologist Tim Buckley
6 hours ago
SNOW.... As far as the records show, this is the earliest that snow has flown in the sky in the Wilmington, NC area on record.

Previous earliest was November 14th on two occasions.

Like it or not, this is historic!
Historic, yes. But I prefer a different word: unprecedented.
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Quoting 443. washingtonian115:
This is embarrassing to the mid-atlantic DMV area in particular..Snow no where to be found.


Morning, Fellow Marylander. :3

Washington DC on the 9th this month.

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Gust front cloud, SE Michigan
Thunderstorm over Grand Teton
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