Haiyan is Dead, Better Weather Ahead for the Philippines; 'We Can Stop This Madness'

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on November 12, 2013

Share this Blog
50
+

Super Typhoon Haiyan is gone, but not before adding China to its list of ravaged nations in Asia. Haiyan made landfall on the northern Vietnam coast near the Chinese border as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds on Sunday, and spread torrential rains into southern China of up to 38 centimeters (15 inches) over some parts of Guangxi province, which caused up to $700 million in damage to agricultural, forestry, poultry and fishing industries there, said China National Radio. Seven people were killed in China on hard-hit Hainan Island, with three others missing. At least 13 people died and 81 were injured in Vietnam from the storm, said the Voice of Vietnam, the country's national radio broadcaster. Huge 26-foot waves from Haiyan swept 16 people out to sea in Taiwan on Sunday, killing 8 of them, the Chinese news agency Xinhua reported. The devastation wrought by Haiyan in the Philippines is among the most severe punishments ever inflicted by a tropical cyclone in modern history. With an official death toll of 1,774, Haiyan already ranks as the 3rd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. The deadliest typhoon in Philippine history was Typhoon Thelma of 1991, which killed between 5101 - 8000 people, reports wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post on Philippines typhoon history.


Figure 1. Col John Sanchez, Central Command, AFP took these photos from a PAF Nomad aircracft over Guiuan, E. Samar, on November 10, 2013: "Guiuan bore the brunt of Super Typhoon Yolanda at its first landfall Friday. One hundred percent of the structures either had their roofs blown away or sustained major damage. Nearly all coconut trees fell. We saw people in the streets, seemingly dazed. Trucks and cars were left in the streets where they were stopped in their tracks as Yolanda struck. We were probably the first outsiders to fly over the area since Friday and obviously, no relief goods have arrived there yet. It was almost lunchtime but there was no smoke from cooking fires. The 2.4 km runway is clear of debris and could still be used by C130 aircraft." Image credit: Col John Sanchez , Central Command, AFP.

Tropical disturbance 90W leaving the Philippines; better weather ahead
A tropical disturbance that passed over the Philippines Island of Mindanao (Invest 90W), brought heavy rains of 82 mm (3.2 inches) of rain in the 24 hours ending 8am Philippines time Tuesday (7pm Monday EST) to Davao City on Mindanao. Heavy rains fell over the disaster area in the Central Philippines, as well, hampering relief efforts. However, the storm is now leaving the islands, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the east of the Philippines. This will bring several days of dryer weather, with only scattered afternoon thunderstorms, to the disaster zone. The GFS model is not predicting any new tropical cyclones forming in the Western Pacific over the coming seven days. The Japan Meteorological Agency is still classifying 90W as a tropical depression, but the Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has downgraded the depression (which they called Zoraida) to a remnant low, as of 3:30pm their time (2:30am EST.) The disturbance still has a high chance of development into a tropical depression, according to Tuesday's 06 UTC Western Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

Haiyan's place in history
Haiyan hit Guiuan, on the Philippine island of Samar, at 4:40 am local time November 8, 2013 (20:40 UTC November 7.) Three hours before landfall, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) assessed Haiyan’s sustained winds at 195 mph, gusting to 235 mph, making it the 4th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. Satellite loops show that Haiyan weakened only slightly, if at all, in the two hours after JTWC’s advisory, so the super typhoon likely made landfall with winds near 195 mph. The next JTWC intensity estimate, for 00Z UTC November 8, about three hours after landfall, put the top winds at 185 mph. Averaging together these estimates gives a strength of 190 mph an hour after landfall. Thus, Haiyan had winds of 190 - 195 mph at landfall, making it the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history. The previous record was held by the Atlantic's Hurricane Camille of 1969, which made landfall in Mississippi with 190 mph winds.

With Angela Fritz' help, I've put together a list of most intense world tropical cyclones at landfall, using the advisories taken from the National Hurricane Center in the Atlantic and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in the rest of the world's oceans. Both agencies use 1-minute averaging times for their advisories, as opposed to the 10-minute averaging time used to report wind speeds by most international weather agencies and at most international airports. The list is unofficial and may have omissions; email me at jmasters@wunderground.com if you have suggestions for improvement:



"We can stop this madness"
At the annual United Nations talks on developing a global climate treaty, currently underway in Warsaw, Poland, Naderev Saño, the chief representative of the Philippines at the conference, said on Monday: “What my country is going through as a result of this extreme climate event is madness; the climate crisis is madness. We can stop this madness right here in Warsaw.” Saño promised to undergo a hunger strike in solidarity with the storm victims until “a meaningful outcome is in sight.”

I've blogged extensively about the links between hurricanes, typhoons, and climate change, most recently in my August 2013 post, Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns. Since hurricanes are heat engines that take heat energy from the oceans and convert it to the energy of their winds, rising ocean temperatures due to global warming should make the strongest storms stronger, though the poor quality and relatively short length of the global database of hurricanes and typhoons make it difficult to tell if this has already begun to occur. Hurricane scientists expect to see a 2% - 11% increase in the intensity of hurricanes and typhoons (aka tropical cyclones) by 2100. Later this week, I'll have a more detailed look at the conditions that helped fuel the incredible strength of Super Typhoon Haiyan, and discuss possible linkages to climate change.


Video 1. After Super Typhoon Haiyan ravaged the Philippines, climate change representative Yeb Sano pleaded with the world to take immediate, drastic action to reduce climate change-causing carbon dioxide emissions in an emotional speech at the UN's climate meeting in Warsaw, Poland.

The Philippine Red Cross is appealing for donations.

Portlight disaster relief charity is reaching out to disability organizations in the Philippines to provide durable medical equipment. and welcomes donations.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 94 - 44

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13Blog Index

Quoting 91. CaneFreeCR:


The worldwide average temperature increase of AGW as well as the increase in atmospheric water vapor add force to the wind field and rain of a storm like Haiyan. Since Haiyan is most likely the strongest, or at least one of the strongest, landfalling tropical cyclones, it seems logical that its greater wind velocity and rainfall are a result of both the temperature increase and the additional water vapor, which releases more heat as it condenses into rain. Thus while Haiyan was not formed because of AGW, its higher wind speeds and heavier rains were most likely a result of AGW.


A theory at this point.

I would like to see the top ten strongest storms. I know Wilma and Gilbert both had 185 mph winds at one time. They just didn't make landfall at that intensity.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 91. CaneFreeCR:


The worldwide average temperature increase of AGW as well as the increase in atmospheric water vapor add force to the wind field and rain of a storm like Haiyan. Since Haiyan is most likely the strongest, or at least one of the strongest, landfalling tropical cyclones, it seems logical that its greater wind velocity and rainfall are a result of both the temperature increase and the additional water vapor, which releases more heat as it condenses into rain. Thus while Haiyan was not formed because of AGW, its higher wind speeds and heavier rains were most likely a result of AGW.


it seems there is disagreement in the AGW camp because some say yes and some say no..

the favorite source used by many of the alarmists here says no..

I copied this from JL over there in Roods blog..

From The Guardian:


Typhoon Haiyan and climate change Q&A
How could climate change affect typhoons, hurricanes and tropical storms and is it possible to calculate this impact?

Is typhoon Haiyan linked to climate change?

As the devastating storm has only just happened, it is too soon for any research to have been done on whether global warming influenced typhoon Haiyan. But there are good reasons for expecting that it has (see below). Furthermore, the tools exist to determine how much climate change may have intensified the typhoon. They have already been used on other extreme weather events, giving a clear scientific answer that climate change had dramatically increased the risk of heatwaves and floods, for example.


So which is it..yes or no?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16819
5 out of 12 made it to philippines.. damn!

it seems like Guian Province has less casualties compared to tacloban, but all structures are totally devastated. it is possible that there are a lot more informal settlers in Tacloban City.. since it is one of the bigger cities in Visayas.

I wonder whats the take of Earth uncut on the storm, he has been to many other storms ..



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 76. ncstorm:


well it was stated in roods blog after several dodge attempts that it wasnt a result as well in Dr. Masters blog but its interesting that Dr. Masters himself might be stating otherwise if I read his blog correctly..I'm sure someone will correct me if I didn't..I guess we will have to wait on his next blog to see if that is indeed the case of Haiyan being a result of GW/climate change??

I wont be surprised though if it goes that way..



The worldwide average temperature increase of AGW as well as the increase in atmospheric water vapor add force to the wind field and rain of a storm like Haiyan. Since Haiyan is most likely the strongest, or at least one of the strongest, landfalling tropical cyclones, it seems logical that its greater wind velocity and rainfall are a result of both the temperature increase and the additional water vapor, which releases more heat as it condenses into rain. Thus while Haiyan was not formed because of AGW, its higher wind speeds and heavier rains were most likely a result of AGW.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hope this doesn't verify. I want the first big snow to hold off until after I get back from Florida.

Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2905
¿sᴉɥʇ pɐǝɹ noʎ uɐƆ



Anyways......

98S has weakened slightly in the last few hours.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 4472
Dooh, a flying firefighter in Croatia/Rijeka yesterday



Mediterranean cyclonic low still is circulating, dumping torrential rains onto southern Italy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The dense populaiton along areas at sea level coupled with the potential of 2-3C warmer temperatures on a global average and the projected sea level rise is the problem.

So when the guy from the RP says, "This is madness" he's not talking about this storm being caused tottally by AGW.

He's really talking about multiple complex factors of climate policy and social policies, along with hundreds of years of generally bad urban planning (as in no planning, just build ports and cities where it's easy).

He's talking about our failure to govern.

He's talking about failure of humanity to understand the exponential function.

He's not saying that Jimbo can't have an SUV.

He's saying we all have to rethink things in the contex of climate, and that requires something we've never really pulled off, good governance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That front is well defined!!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 75. indianrivguy:


Dang Marvin.. looks a little chilly.. you may need to break out the long undies.. :)


Hey IRG..
Actually I love cold weather..
I know..
What am I doing in Florida?..Right?..
I think you realize why but others may not..
Not going into that here though..
Anyway..
I have 3 pairs of long-john's and all of them make me itch..Lol..
I wear sweat pants and I'm good.. :)
Marty I've given up Facebook..
So I'm not able to keep up with your efforts as I should..
If you would,please WU mail me when you feel like it and bring me up to date..

It's a coming..



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 62. RitaEvac:
Kiss the sunlight goodbye along the gulf coast, clouds are inbound

...and the cool wind.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3477


Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2905
Quoting 80. indianrivguy:


heyyyy, that looks like one of those Espanol "?"

Mornin" PB.. :)
Good afternoon IRG... 6 more working days........YES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 65. JohnLonergan:
According to this paper, Determining the natural length of the current interglacial, "No glacial inception is projected to occur at the current atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 390 ppmv. ... The end of the current interglacial would occur within the next 1500 years, if atmospheric CO2 concentrations did not exceed 240±5 ppmv." (My emphasis).

Co2 is already over 390 ppm, and I don't see 240 ppm coming any time in the next 50,000 yrs, so an ice age, no way.
Nea?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 54. PalmBeachWeather:
¿


heyyyy, that looks like one of those Espanol "?"

Mornin" PB.. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 62. RitaEvac:
Kiss the sunlight goodbye along the gulf coast, clouds are inbound
'scuse me while I kiss the sky... Sorry, had to say that... It's a 60's thing
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 74. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Check this out ncstorm even South Carolina gets in on the act.



that looks different from the twister map..I'll take it!!! :)
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16819
Quoting 75. indianrivguy:


Dang Marvin.. looks a little chilly.. you may need to break out the long undies.. :)
LOL...looks like it makes it all the way down to you guys. The most we warm to tomorrow is the mid-60s along the NE coast of FL. So likely we will spending most of the day in the upper-50s to lower-60s. Bring on the taste of winter.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 73. luvtogolf:


It wasn't but you will be lead to believe so, even though they will say that no single weather extreme event can be attributed to GW.


well it was stated in roods blog after several dodge attempts that it wasnt a result as well in Dr. Masters blog but its interesting that Dr. Masters himself might be stating otherwise if I read his blog correctly..I'm sure someone will correct me if I didn't..I guess we will have to wait on his next blog to see if that is indeed the case of Haiyan being a result of GW/climate change??

I wont be surprised though if it goes that way..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16819
Quoting 45. pcola57:


A Freeze Warning is in effect for all but coastal portions of the western Florida Panhandle late tonight through early Wednesday morning. Low temperatures will range from the mid 20s to around 30 degrees across the Freeze Warning area. Take precautions to protect pets and sensitive vegetation.





Dang Marvin.. looks a little chilly.. you may need to break out the long undies.. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Check this out ncstorm even South Carolina gets in on the act.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 22. ncstorm:
Hello Doc..great post..terrible tragedy in the phillipines..

My question to you as I posed this question in Dr. Roods blog after Hayian made landfall where after several comments not in relation to the question I posed and finally someone answered with a no..

I asked "Was Haiyan a result of GW/climate change?"

Your post "I've blogged extensively about the links between hurricanes, typhoons, and climate change, most recently in my August 2013 post, Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns. Since hurricanes are heat engines that take heat energy from the oceans and convert it to the energy of their winds, rising ocean temperatures due to global warming should make the strongest storms stronger, though the poor quality and relatively short length of the global database of hurricanes and typhoons make it difficult to tell if this has already begun to occur. Hurricane scientists expect to see a 2% - 11% increase in the intensity of hurricanes and typhoons (aka tropical cyclones) by 2100. Later this week, I'll have a more detailed look at the conditions that helped fuel the incredible strength of Super Typhoon Haiyan, and discuss possible linkages to climate change.

Are you saying Haiyan was a result of GW/Climate Change?


It wasn't but you will be lead to believe so, even though they will say that no single weather extreme event can be attributed to GW.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 68. MississippiWx:


Mid to upper 20s here the next two nights. Brrrrr. That's cold for South Mississippi standards any time of the year.


yeah and add the blustery winds on top of that here..the wind chill factor is going to be brutal for some folks heading into work tomorrow morning..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16819
71. josF
Thank you. Dr Masters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gulf of Tehuantepec news from tropical discussion for EPAC.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE AREA. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO START 30 HOURS OR SO INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND CONTINUE AT STORM OR NEAR-STORM FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL REACH A MAXIMUM OF 14 FEET DURING THE GALE-FORCE PERIOD...AND THEN REACH FROM 17 FEET TO 24 FEET BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

The cold front is just passing me now near Houston. I'm guessing the storm force winds are for when the front gets down to the southern BOC. Looks like it might be a prolonged event.

Edit: looking up the Beaufort scale, storm force would be 48-55 knots.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Shot of Haiyan from Japanese satellite

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 66. ncstorm:
Yes!!!

NWS, Wilmington, NC

A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WHEN LINGERING 950-700
MB MOISTURE AND SUBFREEZING LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL OVERLAP
COINCIDENT WITH MID-LEVEL LIFT TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS.
SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HOWEVER MAY NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING DUE TO STRONG
MIXING AND ANY SNOW GENERATION OVER THE AREA WILL LIKELY CHANGE
OR MIX WITH RAIN AS IT APPROACHES THE GROUND. THE LACK OF A RE-
SUPPLYING MOISTURE TAP AND RELATIVELY MILD GROUND TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS. OVERALL QPF FIELDS
REMAIN ON THE LOW-END WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSAGE. THIS WINDOW WILL
OCCUR FROM 7PM TONIGHT OVER OUR FAR N AND NW INTERIOR TO 10-11 PM
ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES. IT APPEARS ABRUPT COLUMN DRYING WILL END
PCPN OVER THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

THE STRONG AND FRIGID HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL DELIVER BLUSTERY
N WIND GUSTS LATE TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE LOW
AND MIDDLE 30S DAYBREAK WED UNDER WINDY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS.
THIS IS ALSO WHEN WIND CHILL/APPARENT TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FIRST LIGHT OF WEDNESDAY WHEN
COMBINING THE INFLUENCE OF WIND INTO THE CHILLED AIR.


Mid to upper 20s here the next two nights. Brrrrr. That's cold for South Mississippi standards any time of the year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 32. Sfloridacat5:
I wish a Hurricane Hunter Aircraft could have flown through Haiyan to get confirmation of the wind speeds at landfall.
You First! anyway.. Another weather tragedy resulting in thousands of souls no longer with us, grieving families across the globe and a warning that we are only seeing the start of these types of extreme events. I will herein repeat my admonishment: BE PREPARED and BE AWARE. I take a kid to school with my kids and he never wears a coat.. This morning it was snowing lightly and 34 so I asked him why he doesn't wear a coat. He says, "Its always warm inside" so I say, "What if you have to go outside?" He says, "Why would I have to go outside?" I begin to list possible reasons and he remains silent (this is a straight A student in HS) Eventually he says that someone will have an extra coat he could borrow... Let's hope so..
What does the fox say?? "I want Ugg Boots for CHRISTMAS!"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yes!!!

NWS, Wilmington, NC

A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WHEN LINGERING 950-700
MB MOISTURE AND SUBFREEZING LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL OVERLAP
COINCIDENT WITH MID-LEVEL LIFT TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS.
SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HOWEVER MAY NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING DUE TO STRONG
MIXING AND ANY SNOW GENERATION OVER THE AREA WILL LIKELY CHANGE
OR MIX WITH RAIN AS IT APPROACHES THE GROUND. THE LACK OF A RE-
SUPPLYING MOISTURE TAP AND RELATIVELY MILD GROUND TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS. OVERALL QPF FIELDS
REMAIN ON THE LOW-END WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSAGE. THIS WINDOW WILL
OCCUR FROM 7PM TONIGHT OVER OUR FAR N AND NW INTERIOR TO 10-11 PM
ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES. IT APPEARS ABRUPT COLUMN DRYING WILL END
PCPN OVER THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

THE STRONG AND FRIGID HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL DELIVER BLUSTERY
N WIND GUSTS LATE TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE LOW
AND MIDDLE 30S DAYBREAK WED UNDER WINDY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS.
THIS IS ALSO WHEN WIND CHILL/APPARENT TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FIRST LIGHT OF WEDNESDAY WHEN
COMBINING THE INFLUENCE OF WIND INTO THE CHILLED AIR.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16819
According to this paper, Determining the natural length of the current interglacial, "No glacial inception is projected to occur at the current atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 390 ppmv. ... The end of the current interglacial would occur within the next 1500 years, if atmospheric CO2 concentrations did not exceed 240±5 ppmv." (My emphasis).

Co2 is already over 390 ppm, and I don't see 240 ppm coming any time in the next 50,000 yrs, so an ice age, no way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Re: 52 first comment since 2009 is a denialist drive-by.

Member Since: October 23, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 0

Oh my.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The damage pictures across the Philippines look all too familiar. They are very reminiscent of the Mississippi Coast after Katrina. However, this seems to be on a much larger scale which is absolutely sickening. I feel so, so terrible for these people.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Kiss the sunlight goodbye along the gulf coast, clouds are inbound
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
411 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013

...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...

NCZ106>110-SCZ039-054>056-122000-
/O.NEW.KILM.FZ.W.0006.131113T0800Z-131113T1300Z/
COASTAL PENDER-INLAND NEW HANOVER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-
INLAND BRUNSWICK-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-WILLIAMSBURG-COASTAL HORRY-
INLAND GEORGETOWN-COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SURF CITY...TOPSAIL BEACH...
WILMINGTON...CAROLINA BEACH...WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...LELAND...
BOLIVIA...SHALLOTTE...OCEAN ISLE BEACH...HOLDEN BEACH...
OAK ISLAND...SOUTHPORT...KINGSTREE...MYRTLE BEACH...
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH...GARDEN CITY...ANDREWS...GEORGETOWN...
MURRELLS INLET
411 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...WILL DROP INTO THE 30S BY MIDNIGHT...AND AROUND
32 BETWEEN 3 AND 8 AM WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...TENDER VEGETATION WILL LIKELY BECOME SERIOUSLY INJURED
OR KILLED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION
UNLESS PROTECTIVE ACTIONS ARE TAKEN.

&&

$$

DOUGH
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16819
Be careful if you are going out over the water.

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY.
* WINDS AND SEAS...A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO TO 13 TO 15 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM AND OPEN ATLANTIC AND 8 TO 11 FEET NEARSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A GALE WARNING MEANS THAT WINDS BETWEEN 34 AND 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.
&&
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 52. scottL:
You Can NOT stop the 'Madness' of climate change. It is just change, it happens - period. The planet has been hot and cold before - no man. Prior to this new verbiage of 'change' it was global 'warming' and even the UN has admitted error in their 'findings'. Try to stop the agenda - politics not needed.



Deny, rinse, repeat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cloud deck from cold front is pile driving towards the gulf coast.

Result: High Winds and COLD on the way
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Freeze coming to the south.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
“A new study by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory scientists shows that observed changes in global (ocean and land) precipitation are directly affected by human activities and cannot be explained by natural variability alone. The research appears in the Nov. 11 online edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Emissions of heat-trapping and ozone-depleting gases affect the distribution of precipitation through two mechanisms. Increasing temperatures are expected to make wet regions wetter and dry regions drier (thermodynamic changes); and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns will push storm tracks and subtropical dry zones toward the poles.

"Both these changes are occurring simultaneously in global precipitation and this behavior cannot be explained by natural variability alone," said LLNL's lead author Kate Marvel. "External influences such as the increase in greenhouse gases are responsible for the changes."

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
While GW is happening and ever increasing let us not forget that technology is moving at light speed. High probability that within the next 100 years, the technology will exist to remove CO2 from the air and maybe even convert it to oxygen. US has cut emissions impressively, unfortunately China has more than offset that easily. While a lot of chatter is going on about curbing emissions and GW, truth is the opposite is happening; as the trend is still more and more fossil fuels being used yearly. Without this new technology, we will be stuck with reacting to what happens. If words could stop AGW then we'd be fine. While we've made good strides here in the US, worldwide we are still headed quickly in the wrong direction and will be for the foreseeable future. And maybe that technology is wishful thinking, it may never exist, but I'd like to think it will.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 52. scottL:
You Can NOT stop the 'Madness' of climate change. It is just change, it happens - period. The planet has been hot and cold before - no man. Prior to this new verbiage of 'change' it was global 'warming' and even the UN has admitted error in their 'findings'. Try to stop the agenda - politics not needed.

¿
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12z GFS..not quite there but almost in my area for snow..as my NWS said on Sunday..this storm is setting up as the Jan 2013 system where models didnt forecast any snow until hours before the set up got to our area..



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16819
You Can NOT stop the 'Madness' of climate change. It is just change, it happens - period. The planet has been hot and cold before - no man. Prior to this new verbiage of 'change' it was global 'warming' and even the UN has admitted error in their 'findings'. Try to stop the agenda - politics not needed.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Another set of eye popping numbers :

The Alaska statewide average temperature during October was 8.8°F above the 1971-2000 average marking its warmest October on record in the 95-year period of record. The previous record warm October occurred in 1925, when the temperature was 7.7°F above average. Locally, the Fairbanks average October temperature of 36.1°F was 11.9°F above normal. In addition to the above-average temperatures, many low elevation locations received much-below-average snowfall.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1. LargoFl:
Thanks Doc..could be stormy here next Saturday..
I guess I should just expect the first night of my cruise to be a little bumpy haha.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NYC getting some snow today.

Regional Forecast for New York (Manhattan)
Today
chance of snow
Cloudy with snow likely late this morning...then mostly sunny this afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation. Cold with highs around 40. Northwest winds around 15 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thank you so much Dr. Masters... Glad you put a human touch into this blog...I think we are all affected by this... Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Can anyone explain why Typhoon Haiyan's path in the South China Sea ended up being different from the initial projection, which was a straight line from the Philippines into Central Vietnam?

I understand that projection is just a projection but would like to know what are the atmospheric elements that caused the path changes.

I remember seeing very early (Nov 7 or 8) a model projection (from Korea? or Taiwan?) that turned out to be very close to the final path. Is that correct?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Jeff...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


A Freeze Warning is in effect for all but coastal portions of the western Florida Panhandle late tonight through early Wednesday morning. Low temperatures will range from the mid 20s to around 30 degrees across the Freeze Warning area. Take precautions to protect pets and sensitive vegetation.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 32. Sfloridacat5:
I wish a Hurricane Hunter Aircraft could have flown through Haiyan to get confirmation of the wind speeds at landfall.
Yep and pressure readings too. Someone on here had stated there was an unofficial report of 868 (mbar). Which if had been confirmed would have made Haiyan the strongest TC ever recorded.

Preliminary has it as 895 mbar.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 94 - 44

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
59 °F
Partly Cloudy

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Dunham Lake Sunset
Carrot Nose in Danger
Deep Snow in Brookline, MA
Sunset at Fort DeSoto