Haiyan is Dead, Better Weather Ahead for the Philippines; 'We Can Stop This Madness'

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on November 12, 2013

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Super Typhoon Haiyan is gone, but not before adding China to its list of ravaged nations in Asia. Haiyan made landfall on the northern Vietnam coast near the Chinese border as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds on Sunday, and spread torrential rains into southern China of up to 38 centimeters (15 inches) over some parts of Guangxi province, which caused up to $700 million in damage to agricultural, forestry, poultry and fishing industries there, said China National Radio. Seven people were killed in China on hard-hit Hainan Island, with three others missing. At least 13 people died and 81 were injured in Vietnam from the storm, said the Voice of Vietnam, the country's national radio broadcaster. Huge 26-foot waves from Haiyan swept 16 people out to sea in Taiwan on Sunday, killing 8 of them, the Chinese news agency Xinhua reported. The devastation wrought by Haiyan in the Philippines is among the most severe punishments ever inflicted by a tropical cyclone in modern history. With an official death toll of 1,774, Haiyan already ranks as the 3rd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. The deadliest typhoon in Philippine history was Typhoon Thelma of 1991, which killed between 5101 - 8000 people, reports wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post on Philippines typhoon history.


Figure 1. Col John Sanchez, Central Command, AFP took these photos from a PAF Nomad aircracft over Guiuan, E. Samar, on November 10, 2013: "Guiuan bore the brunt of Super Typhoon Yolanda at its first landfall Friday. One hundred percent of the structures either had their roofs blown away or sustained major damage. Nearly all coconut trees fell. We saw people in the streets, seemingly dazed. Trucks and cars were left in the streets where they were stopped in their tracks as Yolanda struck. We were probably the first outsiders to fly over the area since Friday and obviously, no relief goods have arrived there yet. It was almost lunchtime but there was no smoke from cooking fires. The 2.4 km runway is clear of debris and could still be used by C130 aircraft." Image credit: Col John Sanchez , Central Command, AFP.

Tropical disturbance 90W leaving the Philippines; better weather ahead
A tropical disturbance that passed over the Philippines Island of Mindanao (Invest 90W), brought heavy rains of 82 mm (3.2 inches) of rain in the 24 hours ending 8am Philippines time Tuesday (7pm Monday EST) to Davao City on Mindanao. Heavy rains fell over the disaster area in the Central Philippines, as well, hampering relief efforts. However, the storm is now leaving the islands, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the east of the Philippines. This will bring several days of dryer weather, with only scattered afternoon thunderstorms, to the disaster zone. The GFS model is not predicting any new tropical cyclones forming in the Western Pacific over the coming seven days. The Japan Meteorological Agency is still classifying 90W as a tropical depression, but the Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has downgraded the depression (which they called Zoraida) to a remnant low, as of 3:30pm their time (2:30am EST.) The disturbance still has a high chance of development into a tropical depression, according to Tuesday's 06 UTC Western Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

Haiyan's place in history
Haiyan hit Guiuan, on the Philippine island of Samar, at 4:40 am local time November 8, 2013 (20:40 UTC November 7.) Three hours before landfall, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) assessed Haiyan’s sustained winds at 195 mph, gusting to 235 mph, making it the 4th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. Satellite loops show that Haiyan weakened only slightly, if at all, in the two hours after JTWC’s advisory, so the super typhoon likely made landfall with winds near 195 mph. The next JTWC intensity estimate, for 00Z UTC November 8, about three hours after landfall, put the top winds at 185 mph. Averaging together these estimates gives a strength of 190 mph an hour after landfall. Thus, Haiyan had winds of 190 - 195 mph at landfall, making it the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history. The previous record was held by the Atlantic's Hurricane Camille of 1969, which made landfall in Mississippi with 190 mph winds.

With Angela Fritz' help, I've put together a list of most intense world tropical cyclones at landfall, using the advisories taken from the National Hurricane Center in the Atlantic and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in the rest of the world's oceans. Both agencies use 1-minute averaging times for their advisories, as opposed to the 10-minute averaging time used to report wind speeds by most international weather agencies and at most international airports. The list is unofficial and may have omissions; email me at jmasters@wunderground.com if you have suggestions for improvement:



"We can stop this madness"
At the annual United Nations talks on developing a global climate treaty, currently underway in Warsaw, Poland, Naderev Saño, the chief representative of the Philippines at the conference, said on Monday: “What my country is going through as a result of this extreme climate event is madness; the climate crisis is madness. We can stop this madness right here in Warsaw.” Saño promised to undergo a hunger strike in solidarity with the storm victims until “a meaningful outcome is in sight.”

I've blogged extensively about the links between hurricanes, typhoons, and climate change, most recently in my August 2013 post, Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns. Since hurricanes are heat engines that take heat energy from the oceans and convert it to the energy of their winds, rising ocean temperatures due to global warming should make the strongest storms stronger, though the poor quality and relatively short length of the global database of hurricanes and typhoons make it difficult to tell if this has already begun to occur. Hurricane scientists expect to see a 2% - 11% increase in the intensity of hurricanes and typhoons (aka tropical cyclones) by 2100. Later this week, I'll have a more detailed look at the conditions that helped fuel the incredible strength of Super Typhoon Haiyan, and discuss possible linkages to climate change.


Video 1. After Super Typhoon Haiyan ravaged the Philippines, climate change representative Yeb Sano pleaded with the world to take immediate, drastic action to reduce climate change-causing carbon dioxide emissions in an emotional speech at the UN's climate meeting in Warsaw, Poland.

The Philippine Red Cross is appealing for donations.

Portlight disaster relief charity is reaching out to disability organizations in the Philippines to provide durable medical equipment. and welcomes donations.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 140. Minnemike:
i don't think you understood me.
your characterization was a fallacy.
Fallacy: A statement or an argument based on a false or invalid inference.
in multiple ways, you made broad and sweeping false comparisons.


Im going back to work but before I go, I didnt post any fallacy..I posted an link from "The Guardian" stating more research was needed before stating Haiyan was a result of GW as well as what Dr. Masters said..I didnt write that stuff..its written and on the world wide web for anyone to view..You guys always ask for evidence and when you get it you make up stuff..

also..way to skirt around the question which seems to happen a lot on this blog..
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Quoting 131. LargoFl:
yeah no freeze here along the gulf coast with this coming front..but it is a bit early for a cold front to make it this time of year but i welcome the change..90 degee's for 9 months is enough lol..bring on the chill.


NWS Mobile,Ala..

Freeze Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
800 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

...A WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY...

.A COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MANY INLAND
AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALZ051>060-FLZ001-003-005-MSZ067-075-076-078-079- 122345-
/O.UPG.KMOB.FZ.A.0002.131113T0600Z-131113T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.FZ.W.0005.131113T0600Z-131113T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.FZ.A.0003.131114T0500Z-131114T1300Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-B UTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
INLAND OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENV ILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
ANDALUSIA...OPP...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...J AY...CRESTVIEW...
WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...
MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
800 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. A FREEZE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS FREEZE WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE
FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TEMPERATURE...FALLING BELOW 32 DEGREES AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY FOR MOST INLAND AREAS NORTH OF
THE COAST. WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TEMPERATURE SENSITIVE PLANTS WILL BE AFFECTED...
ALONG WITH OUTDOOR PETS AND EXPOSED PLUMBING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
KILL CROPS...NEW GROWTH...AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS...NEW GROWTH
...AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6840
Quoting 131. LargoFl:
yeah no freeze here along the gulf coast with this coming front..but it is a bit early for a cold front to make it this time of year but i welcome the change..90 degee's for 9 months is enough lol..bring on the chill.


Exactly, I'm sick of the heat. I was speaking with someone yesterday who just moved here from Northern VA last month. She said at first she liked the eternal warmth, but now she is tired of it and wants to move back!

We usually have our first temps in the 40s here in the second week of November (on average). Some years we get 40s in late October. This season so far, we haven't yet been below the mid 50s, so we are a bit behind. With the El Nino, I expect a cloudier, milder winter than normal with above normal rainfall. At least the clouds and rain should keep the temps down a bit.
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Quoting 138. bappit:

Yessireee! The whole "did AGW cause this weather event" is a red herring.

Yes, let's forget the incredibly hot summer preceding this typhoon season in that region. Just another 'red herring'. Let's behold any event one at a time so as not to see any red thread in the show. Is Abottism the new enlightenment?
Member Since: April 3, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 169
Quoting ncstorm:


then where is the 100% agreement on Haiyan then?
i don't think you understood me.
your characterization was a fallacy.
Fallacy: A statement or an argument based on a false or invalid inference.
in multiple ways, you made broad and sweeping false comparisons.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 105. hydrus:
The real issue is how much of the warming is mankind responsible for, not whether or not global warming increased the strength of Haiyan, or any other cyclone. Most know the Earth is in a warming phase and the warmer the ocean, the more heat energy available to tropical cyclones. The evidence is already present that man has sped up the process. Some people do comprehend it, some cant, others deny it. The worse problem is some people lie about the facts and truths on the matter for there own gain. The only solution is to remove the doubt that we are actually aiding an already warming trend, and as a race take steps in the right direction. So if I were to answer the question yes or no..?...Yes.
Pat posted this earlier. It is pretty much self explanatory..


No issue. 110% (yes, one hundred AND ten percent).
What most know is obviously irrelevant. The fact is the earth was in a cooling phase until we busted up nature with this shock:


'Debate' - it wasn't for years already - is over. The game is playing with the revisionist fools for those who like that (me) and otherwise it's just mayhem reporting.
Member Since: April 3, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 169
Quoting 105. hydrus:
The real issue is how much of the warming is mankind responsible for, not whether or not global warming increased the strength of Haiyan, or any other cyclone. Most know the Earth is in a warming phase and the warmer the ocean, the more heat energy available to tropical cyclones. The evidence is already present that man has sped up the process. Some people do comprehend it, some cant, others deny it. The worse problem is some people lie about the facts and truths on the matter for there own gain. The only solution is to remove the doubt that we are actually aiding an already warming trend, and as a race take steps in the right direction. So if I were to answer the question yes or no..?...Yes.
Pat posted this earlier. It is pretty much self explanatory..

Yessireee! The whole "did AGW cause this weather event" is a red herring. I find the tangent interesting anyway because of the epistemological angles--which are lost on lots of people. That's okay.

That discussion has no bearing on the physics of CO2, the increasing concentrations, the source of the increase, and the basic effect of the increase.

So people who deny all of that accepted science are aptly described as what?
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If your coming to a Science entry to discuss Camille's last recon, well,it was the Afternoon of the 17th as reported in the reports.

And those are valid.

Not "24" Hours before landfall.

Camille's Eye crossed the Coast around 11 pm, 7 hours after the last recon.


Maybe try a lil o research before er, discussing something that's easily available..

Citations bring a lil credence as well to a post.
Like here.

The last reconnaissance flight was made early Sunday afternoon, and the crew recorded a central pressure of 26.61 inches (901 mb) and clocked maximum winds at more than 200 mph near the center (USACE 1970). Hurricane-force winds extended 60 miles from the center and gales outward about 180 miles. The storm was now at its peak and was located less than 100 miles from the mouth of the Mississippi River. No hurricane this intense had ever struck the mainland of the United States in recorded history.

By 7 p.m., Camille was 60 miles south of Gulfport, moving north-northwest about 15 mph and was expected to move inland near Gulfport that evening (USACE 1970) (Figure 2). An offshore drilling rig was raked by winds estimated to be about 170 miles per hour. Three barrier islands off the coast separate the Mississippi Sound from the Gulf of Mexico, normally providing some buffer from landfalling storms, but during Camille, these islands were ravaged by the storm's power. Two islands lost more than 300 acres to erosion, and the third, Ship Island, was breached (Leyden 1985). On the Mississippi shore, the wind increased until 10 p.m., its sound a continuous roar (ESSA, 1969a).

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Quoting 116. MrMixon:
There is no place in legitimate debate for name-calling.

So how's it going to be, folks? Are you here to re-create your experiences on the elementary school playground or are you here to learn and share information?

Drop the "alarmists" and "flat-earthers" crud and get to it. Develop a hypothesis. Find the data. State your conclusions.

Being an adult is simple if you try.


MrMixon..I use to think the same as you about not using names to define people for each side but at every step and turn I hear the word denier used even by some of the featured bloggers on this site..I just stop taking the higher road..

I agree with everything you say but unfortunately, it will continue by some who even plussd your post which I wont do as that would be hypocritical...
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Quoting 105. hydrus:
The real issue is how much of the warming is mankind responsible for, not whether or not global warming increased the strength of Haiyan, or any other cyclone. Most know the Earth is in a warming phase and the warmer the ocean, the more heat energy available to tropical cyclones. The evidence is already present that man has sped up the process. Some people do comprehend it, some cant, others deny it. The worse problem is some people lie about the facts and truths on the matter for there own gain. The only solution is to remove the doubt that we are actually aiding an already warming trend, and as a race take steps in the right direction. So if I were to answer the question yes or no..?...Yes.
Pat posted this earlier. It is pretty much self explanatory..


That pic is a dramatic hockey stick shape, no denying that.

However, it does absolutely nothing to answer the question posed in any meaningful way.

lawyer:"objection."
lawyer:"off topic and inflammatory"
judge:"sustained"
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Quoting 99. schwankmoe:


was barry bonds' record-setting 73rd home run in the 2001 season the result of steroid use?



Totally irrelevant.
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Dr. Ricky Rood's Climate Change Blog

Share
Climate Change and Arctic Oscillation (6)
By: Dr. Ricky Rood, 11:14 PM CDT on November 02, 2013


Quoting 453. Creideiki:


I have Doctors Rood, Cook and Masters on my side, as well as 97-freaking percent of climate scientists. Do you think they're swayed by poor reasoning, lack of facts, and evidence?

Really? Because that's what you're saying.

By all means, if you've got the big scientific evidence that will destroy AGW Theory in the same way that the ether was scientifically destroyed, then provide it. Otherwise, it's noise, not signal.

The reason for your side needing to be quiet while the adults discuss things isn't to shut out scientific debate. Sit yourself down, Senator McCarthy. It's because when scientists thought they would be trusted and be a force in shaping policy that the Doubt Squad have confused the smaller minds into doing nothing, blaming 3rd world nations where people live all year on what you make in an hour, and pointing at cosmic freaking rays as what the real problem is. To quote "Pogo", "We have met the enemy and he is us."

So you don't have anything credible to add to the conversation. We get that. No, really, we do.

Then sit down and don't become one of, to quote a conservative icon, "the nattering nabobs of negativity."

I'd love to find out how people, like me, who still live in apartments and who cannot even use plug-in electric vehicles, can somehow use solar power when we don't control capital investments on the property and cannot just do it.

Instead, we have another post today decrying any movement toward altering power generation because it has negative impacts on the environment. Well, duh, Francis. Now compare those negative impacts to the current negative impacts of destroying our environment so that we can stay in the chains of the status quo.

Totalitarianism? Really? That's your fear? Mine is that when my niece and nephew grow up they wonder what my generation means when we say, "Don't plant tomatoes until after Mother's Day." Mine is that as we degrade our shared environment to profit the ever shrinking few, that we'll be leaving more people in worse shape.

Totalitarianism. Honestly.

"Necessitous men are not free men." I want people to be free.
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Plant trees to reduce your global footprint…

As trees grow, they help stop climate change by removing carbon dioxide from the air, storing carbon in the trees and soil, and releasing oxygen into the atmosphere.

…and for all the benefits they provide.

While fighting climate change, trees provide many benefits to all of us, every day. They provide cooling shade, block cold winter winds, attract birds and wildlife, purify our air, prevent soil erosion, clean our water, and add grace and beauty to our homes and communities.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39132
Quoting 129. HurrMichaelOrl:
Meanwhile, here in Florida, we have freeze warnings for the northern Panhandle tonight, while tonight's low in Orlando is forecast to be a mild 60F. I don't think I've ever seen us with a forecast low of 60+ when a freeze has been expected in any part of the state.

Also, regarding Camille's status as the second strongest tropical cyclone to make landfall in recorded world history, I have read some compelling evidence to the contrary. I know this has been discussed on the blog before. Photo evidence indicates that Camille was a rapidly weakening category 3-4 hurricane when it crossed the coast, but that still brought a cat 5 surge with it. This scenario is very similar to Katrina actually(just a tad further east). If the last actual reconnaissance aircraft measurement of Camille's winds (measured at 190 mph) was taken some 24 hours before landfall, why is it assumed that the storm actually had such strong winds at landfall? The catastrophic element to Camille was the massive storm surge.
yeah no freeze here along the gulf coast with this coming front..but it is a bit early for a cold front to make it this time of year but i welcome the change..90 degee's for 9 months is enough lol..bring on the chill.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39132
Quoting 108. jonger1150:


ACE this year in the atlantic was a record low or almost a record low.

I'm not talking about the Atlantic. No, I wasn't.
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Meanwhile, here in Florida, we have freeze warnings for the northern Panhandle tonight, while tonight's low in Orlando is forecast to be a mild 60F. I don't think I've ever seen us with a forecast low of 60+ when a freeze has been expected in any part of the state.

Also, regarding Camille's status as the second strongest tropical cyclone to make landfall in recorded world history, I have read some compelling evidence to the contrary. I know this has been discussed on the blog before. Photo evidence indicates that Camille was a rapidly weakening category 3-4 hurricane when it crossed the coast, but that still brought a cat 5 surge with it. This scenario is very similar to Katrina actually(just a tad further east). If the last actual reconnaissance aircraft measurement of Camille's winds (measured at 190 mph) was taken some 24 hours before landfall, why is it assumed that the storm actually had such strong winds at landfall? The catastrophic element to Camille was the massive storm surge.
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Quoting 125. ncstorm:


then where is the 100% agreement on Haiyan then?

Simplistic terms for ... well, I don't want to finish that thought.
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we all must remember, tree's EAT co2..the more tree's..the more co2 gets eaten..the world used to have massive forests covering it..now look at it..plant tree's where you can..just saying...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39132
Quoting 118. schwankmoe:


not really. he set the record because his hits went farther. his hits were more intense because of the roids, more made it over the fence. he was a more powerful hitter.

yet you can't prove any one single HR was because of the stuff. he hit home runs before he started juicing, right? yet anybody with two brain cells to rub together will tell you 'yeah, it was the steroids'.

I think you missed the point of my post. Re-read it and pay attention to the word I emphasized.
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Quoting 121. Minnemike:
it is 100% in the alarmist camp.
it's the side of "careful recognition of the complex nature of atmospheric science and climate" that you find deliberation and consideration of multiple factors.
so yes, absolutists, or 'alarmists' do indeed believe it is irrefutably 100% AGW induced.
and that is why they are no more effective in placing argument on the subject than a denialist.
and that is why your question was a fallacy :)


then where is the 100% agreement on Haiyan then?
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Quoting 113. jonger1150:


The burden of proof is on the one who attempts to make the claim, not the one asking for proof.

What is the claim? Who is making it?
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GuyGee - Indianrivguy is a wealth of knowledge about Florida. Both its history and current events.
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Meteorologist Tim Buckley
Interesting fact. Earliest trace of snow on record at ILM was Nov. 14th -- so in the unlikely event of some flurries overnight, it would be an all-timer for the record books.
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Quoting ncstorm:
how can one expect someone to accept GW as hard proof evidence when you have disagreement in the alarmist camp?

where is the 97% agreement on Haiyan?
it is 100% in the alarmist camp.
it's the side of "careful recognition of the complex nature of atmospheric science and climate" that you find deliberation and consideration of multiple factors.
so yes, absolutists, or 'alarmists' do indeed believe it is irrefutably 100% AGW induced.
and that is why they are no more effective in placing argument on the subject than a denialist.
and that is why your question was a fallacy :)
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120. txjac
Texas roll cloud
Compliments of Fox News



Link
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Quoting 117. yoboi:


If C02 does influence hurricanes....then why are 11 of the top 12 storms posted above by Dr Masters were with Lower C02?????


because 'influence' does not mean 'solely cause'.
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Quoting 104. bappit:

It wouldn't have been record setting without the drugs, so one could argue that "barry bonds' record-setting 73rd home run in the 2001 season" was the result of steroid use.

Edit: That way of speaking about it depends on the cumulative nature of home run totals. So to make a similar statement about TC's one might have to look at ACE. Maybe one could argue a case by using ACE per unit time. I haven't seen any stats on the rate that ACE accumulated in the WPAC recently compared with historical trends.


not really. he set the record because his hits went farther. his hits were more intense because of the roids, more made it over the fence. he was a more powerful hitter.

yet you can't prove any one single HR was because of the stuff. he hit home runs before he started juicing, right? yet anybody with two brain cells to rub together will tell you 'yeah, it was the steroids'.
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There is no place in legitimate debate for name-calling.

So how's it going to be, folks? Are you here to re-create your experiences on the elementary school playground or are you here to learn and share information?

Drop the "alarmists" and "flat-earthers" crud and get to it. Develop a hypothesis. Find the data. State your conclusions.

Being an adult is simple if you try.
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Quoting 67. JNTenne:
You First! anyway.. Another weather tragedy resulting in thousands of souls no longer with us, grieving families across the globe and a warning that we are only seeing the start of these types of extreme events. I will herein repeat my admonishment: BE PREPARED and BE AWARE. I take a kid to school with my kids and he never wears a coat.. This morning it was snowing lightly and 34 so I asked him why he doesn't wear a coat. He says, "Its always warm inside" so I say, "What if you have to go outside?" He says, "Why would I have to go outside?" I begin to list possible reasons and he remains silent (this is a straight A student in HS) Eventually he says that someone will have an extra coat he could borrow... Let's hope so..
What does the fox say?? "I want Ugg Boots for CHRISTMAS!"


I thought UGG boots were made from Fox not for Foxes.
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how can one expect someone to accept GW as hard proof evidence when you have disagreement in the alarmist camp?

where is the 97% agreement on Haiyan?
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Quoting bappit:
"So which is it..yes or no?"

We live in a different world than the one where CO2 levels were lower. Everything that happens in this world is influenced in some way, shape or form by the increase in CO2. Influence is just another word for talking about causation. So the answer is yes, but not in a simplistic way.

One trait of denialist rhetoric is to try to force issues into simplistic terms. I assume you are doing that here since you are such a fervent denialist. Use the rhetorical tricks that got you here ... wherever that is.

Try proving that the storm was not influenced by CO2. Bet you can't.


The burden of proof is on the one who attempts to make the claim, not the one asking for proof.
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"So which is it..yes or no?"

We live in a different world than the one where CO2 levels were lower. Everything that happens in this world is influenced in some way, shape or form by the increase in CO2. Influence is just another word for talking about causation. So the answer is yes, but not in a simplistic way.

One trait of denialist rhetoric is to try to force issues into simplistic terms. I assume you are doing that here since you are such a fervent denialist. Use the rhetorical tricks that got you here ... wherever that is.

Try proving that the storm was not influenced by CO2. Bet you can't.
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LargoFL - I wonder if it will be as good as the movie they just filmed on Miami Beach. Whale Tail.
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Quoting 19. indianrivguy:
Thanks Doc.. and thank you Pat, for the ongoing efforts of Portlight to once again make a difference!

From the last blog in response to Guygee about Ponc

Guy G. thanks for the links about the beach. I signed the petition against Ponce.. he was a despot slaver like most in his day and he has already been given a LOT more credit than he deserves. He did not "discover" Florida at all. Cabot probably described it first, and it was a certainty that Spanish slavers had preceded Ponce to Florida and Lucya..what we call the Bahamas. Ponce and his despot buddies had already conquered Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and were working on Cuba before Ponce arrived here in 1513. By 1520, the entire indigenous population of the Bahama's had been enslaved. He actually thought us an island when he arrived. The tribe that occupied that section of the barrier island in question was the Ulumay, and the Pentoya, both of whom were under the Ais domination. Here is a copy of the first map ever drawn showing the Indian River lagoons, by Alvara Mexia 1605;

Great post indianrivguy, thank you for the superb lesson in local history. I don't think they teach this in the public schools.
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Hey Clw..they are filming a movie down on clearwater beach by you....CLEARWATER BEACH --
Clearwater Beach turned from tourist Mecca to movie set for "Dolphin Tale 2."

Bay News 9’s morning anchor Erica Riggins and photojournalist Jonathan Haas were on set again as extras in the movie. The two are playing journalists covering a scene inspired by true events: the Clearwater Marine Aquarium’s release of a rehabilitated turtle back into the wild.

Once again the duo showed up on the set before sun rose, getting into wardrobe, hair and makeup. (Jonathan was spared hair and makeup.)

It was the same drill as their Friday morning assignment, except instead of reporting to the Clearwater Marine Aquarium, their location was Clearwater Beach.

As an extra, Erica is getting passing grades for perfect reporter wardrobe picks. Erica tells us her movie contact advised her to bring several outfits as backups, but she has not had to change.

"The costume department looked at my wardrobe and said, ‘Perfect, you look great,’ which is nice because I've worn this to work, and it meets the role I'm playing today, which is a news reporter," Erica said.

However, that same department continues to change Jonathan's clothes, even though he showed up in the exact same yellow polo shirt the wardrobe department gave him last week.

“I don't know what was wrong with the first one, but here I am in a yellow shirt like the one I showed up with today," Haas said.

While the rest of the extras waited for their cues to move down to the beach, the movie crew employed various 4-wheel drive vehicles, 4-wheelers and heavy equipment vehicles to transport massive cameras and gear to the water's edge.

Thankfully, some of the props - beach chairs, towels and suntan lotion - were a little easier to both carry and lay out.

Look for another day of shooting at Clearwater Beach and another day of Erica and Jonathan as movie extras.

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39132
Quoting bappit:

It wouldn't have been record setting without the drugs, so one could argue that "barry bonds' record-setting 73rd home run in the 2001 season" was the result of steroid use.

Edit: That way of speaking about it depends on the cumulative nature of home run totals. So to make a similar statement about TC's one might have to look at ACE. Maybe one could argue a case by using ACE per unit time. I haven't seen any stats on the rate that ACE accumulated in the WPAC recently compared with historical trends.


ACE this year in the atlantic was a record low or almost a record low.
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Quoting bappit:

It wouldn't have been record setting without the drugs, so one could argue that "barry bonds' record-setting 73rd home run in the 2001 season" was the result of steroid use.


Here's another analogy.

How many foul balls are hit 500 feet in a year, but there are no stats recorded on that. Super Typhoons that were swimming out to sea before the satellite era are most likely never sampled and lost to history.

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39132
Quoting 93. ncstorm:


it seems there is disagreement in the AGW camp because some say yes and some say no..

the favorite source used by many of the alarmists here says no..

I copied this from JL over there in Roods blog..

From The Guardian:


Typhoon Haiyan and climate change Q&A
How could climate change affect typhoons, hurricanes and tropical storms and is it possible to calculate this impact?

Is typhoon Haiyan linked to climate change?

As the devastating storm has only just happened, it is too soon for any research to have been done on whether global warming influenced typhoon Haiyan. But there are good reasons for expecting that it has (see below). Furthermore, the tools exist to determine how much climate change may have intensified the typhoon. They have already been used on other extreme weather events, giving a clear scientific answer that climate change had dramatically increased the risk of heatwaves and floods, for example.


So which is it..yes or no?
The real issue is how much of the warming is mankind responsible for, not whether or not global warming increased the strength of Haiyan, or any other cyclone. Most know the Earth is in a warming phase and the warmer the ocean, the more heat energy available to tropical cyclones. The evidence is already present that man has sped up the process. Some people do comprehend it, some cant, others deny it. The worse problem is some people lie about the facts and truths on the matter for there own gain. The only solution is to remove the doubt that we are actually aiding an already warming trend, and as a race take steps in the right direction. So if I were to answer the question yes or no..?...Yes.
Pat posted this earlier. It is pretty much self explanatory..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21414
Quoting 99. schwankmoe:


was barry bonds' record-setting 73rd home run in the 2001 season the result of steroid use?


It wouldn't have been record setting without the drugs, so one could argue that "barry bonds' record-setting 73rd home run in the 2001 season" was the result of steroid use.

Edit: That way of speaking about it depends on the cumulative nature of home run totals. So to make a similar statement about TC's one might have to look at ACE. Maybe one could argue a case by using ACE per unit time. I haven't seen any stats on the rate that ACE accumulated in the WPAC recently compared with historical trends.
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wow LOOK at the front coming Next week...........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39132
Impressive video report from the "streets" of a totally destroyed township in Tacloban, and how people struggle to cope with this disaster:

Philippines typhoon: BBC reports from destroyed street
12 November 2013 Last updated at 07:39 GMT
Survivors of Typhoon Haiyan, which ravaged parts of the Philippines, have been appealing for food and clean water.
The BBC's Jon Donnison visited one of the worst hit areas of Tacloban, where people are struggling to recover from the disaster.
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Might be 4-5 inches of rain next weekend..........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39132
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39132
Quoting 73. luvtogolf:


It wasn't but you will be lead to believe so, even though they will say that no single weather extreme event can be attributed to GW.


was barry bonds' record-setting 73rd home run in the 2001 season the result of steroid use?

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I see the climate ambulance chasers are already at it.

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Hmm, I hope this WHO Cat-3 classification won't be mixed up with the metereological Cat-5 classifiction of hurricanes/typhoons und cause more confusion about Haiyan's certain Cat-5-strength.

'Yolanda' a Category 3 disaster - WHO
ABS-CBNnews.com. Posted at 11/13/2013 12:35 AM | Updated as of 11/13/2013 1:43 AM
*UN: 11.3 million people affected, 673,000 homeless
*Death toll rises to 1,798

MANILA (UPDATED) - The World Health Organization (WHO) has classified the devastation caused by super typhoon Yolanda in the Philippines as a Category 3 disaster, the highest level.
Recent similar Category 3 disasters include the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the Haiti earthquake in 2010. ...
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39132
Quoting 55. Tribucanes:
While GW is happening and ever increasing let us not forget that technology is moving at light speed. High probability that within the next 100 years, the technology will exist to remove CO2 from the air and maybe even convert it to oxygen. US has cut emissions impressively, unfortunately China has more than offset that easily. While a lot of chatter is going on about curbing emissions and GW, truth is the opposite is happening; as the trend is still more and more fossil fuels being used yearly. Without this new technology, we will be stuck with reacting to what happens. If words could stop AGW then we'd be fine. While we've made good strides here in the US, worldwide we are still headed quickly in the wrong direction and will be for the foreseeable future. And maybe that technology is wishful thinking, it may never exist, but I'd like to think it will.


Thank you for this Tribucanes..
And on topic..
I'd like to think technology coupled with a reality devoid of egotism and worldwide pledge from ALL nations, that this issue can and will be solved..
Perceptions are needing adjustments..
Nature moves at a different speed than a man's/woman's journey here on Earth..
And by all accounts , our pollution has definitely caught up with us and we have upset the natural balance and increased the variability and sped up natures reaction..
No doubt about it..
I am deplored that arrogant men/women can say that there is no Climate Change and our planet "just does that" from time to time..
We have kicked this delicate balance and the momentum has concretely sped this planet towards a Global Warming situation that effects not only us as a species, but all known life inclusive..
Who are we to destroy this beautiful home for all creatures??
Will no one take up the lead and where are our leaders who "can" make the difference??
Have all of our tenacity been buried with past hero's??
Sorry so long..
Off my soapbox..
For now..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6840
Quoting 91. CaneFreeCR:


The worldwide average temperature increase of AGW as well as the increase in atmospheric water vapor add force to the wind field and rain of a storm like Haiyan. Since Haiyan is most likely the strongest, or at least one of the strongest, landfalling tropical cyclones, it seems logical that its greater wind velocity and rainfall are a result of both the temperature increase and the additional water vapor, which releases more heat as it condenses into rain. Thus while Haiyan was not formed because of AGW, its higher wind speeds and heavier rains were most likely a result of AGW.


A theory at this point.

I would like to see the top ten strongest storms. I know Wilma and Gilbert both had 185 mph winds at one time. They just didn't make landfall at that intensity.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.