Haiyan is Dead, Better Weather Ahead for the Philippines; 'We Can Stop This Madness'

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on November 12, 2013

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Super Typhoon Haiyan is gone, but not before adding China to its list of ravaged nations in Asia. Haiyan made landfall on the northern Vietnam coast near the Chinese border as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds on Sunday, and spread torrential rains into southern China of up to 38 centimeters (15 inches) over some parts of Guangxi province, which caused up to $700 million in damage to agricultural, forestry, poultry and fishing industries there, said China National Radio. Seven people were killed in China on hard-hit Hainan Island, with three others missing. At least 13 people died and 81 were injured in Vietnam from the storm, said the Voice of Vietnam, the country's national radio broadcaster. Huge 26-foot waves from Haiyan swept 16 people out to sea in Taiwan on Sunday, killing 8 of them, the Chinese news agency Xinhua reported. The devastation wrought by Haiyan in the Philippines is among the most severe punishments ever inflicted by a tropical cyclone in modern history. With an official death toll of 1,774, Haiyan already ranks as the 3rd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. The deadliest typhoon in Philippine history was Typhoon Thelma of 1991, which killed between 5101 - 8000 people, reports wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post on Philippines typhoon history.


Figure 1. Col John Sanchez, Central Command, AFP took these photos from a PAF Nomad aircracft over Guiuan, E. Samar, on November 10, 2013: "Guiuan bore the brunt of Super Typhoon Yolanda at its first landfall Friday. One hundred percent of the structures either had their roofs blown away or sustained major damage. Nearly all coconut trees fell. We saw people in the streets, seemingly dazed. Trucks and cars were left in the streets where they were stopped in their tracks as Yolanda struck. We were probably the first outsiders to fly over the area since Friday and obviously, no relief goods have arrived there yet. It was almost lunchtime but there was no smoke from cooking fires. The 2.4 km runway is clear of debris and could still be used by C130 aircraft." Image credit: Col John Sanchez , Central Command, AFP.

Tropical disturbance 90W leaving the Philippines; better weather ahead
A tropical disturbance that passed over the Philippines Island of Mindanao (Invest 90W), brought heavy rains of 82 mm (3.2 inches) of rain in the 24 hours ending 8am Philippines time Tuesday (7pm Monday EST) to Davao City on Mindanao. Heavy rains fell over the disaster area in the Central Philippines, as well, hampering relief efforts. However, the storm is now leaving the islands, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the east of the Philippines. This will bring several days of dryer weather, with only scattered afternoon thunderstorms, to the disaster zone. The GFS model is not predicting any new tropical cyclones forming in the Western Pacific over the coming seven days. The Japan Meteorological Agency is still classifying 90W as a tropical depression, but the Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has downgraded the depression (which they called Zoraida) to a remnant low, as of 3:30pm their time (2:30am EST.) The disturbance still has a high chance of development into a tropical depression, according to Tuesday's 06 UTC Western Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

Haiyan's place in history
Haiyan hit Guiuan, on the Philippine island of Samar, at 4:40 am local time November 8, 2013 (20:40 UTC November 7.) Three hours before landfall, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) assessed Haiyan’s sustained winds at 195 mph, gusting to 235 mph, making it the 4th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. Satellite loops show that Haiyan weakened only slightly, if at all, in the two hours after JTWC’s advisory, so the super typhoon likely made landfall with winds near 195 mph. The next JTWC intensity estimate, for 00Z UTC November 8, about three hours after landfall, put the top winds at 185 mph. Averaging together these estimates gives a strength of 190 mph an hour after landfall. Thus, Haiyan had winds of 190 - 195 mph at landfall, making it the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history. The previous record was held by the Atlantic's Hurricane Camille of 1969, which made landfall in Mississippi with 190 mph winds.

With Angela Fritz' help, I've put together a list of most intense world tropical cyclones at landfall, using the advisories taken from the National Hurricane Center in the Atlantic and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in the rest of the world's oceans. Both agencies use 1-minute averaging times for their advisories, as opposed to the 10-minute averaging time used to report wind speeds by most international weather agencies and at most international airports. The list is unofficial and may have omissions; email me at jmasters@wunderground.com if you have suggestions for improvement:



"We can stop this madness"
At the annual United Nations talks on developing a global climate treaty, currently underway in Warsaw, Poland, Naderev Saño, the chief representative of the Philippines at the conference, said on Monday: “What my country is going through as a result of this extreme climate event is madness; the climate crisis is madness. We can stop this madness right here in Warsaw.” Saño promised to undergo a hunger strike in solidarity with the storm victims until “a meaningful outcome is in sight.”

I've blogged extensively about the links between hurricanes, typhoons, and climate change, most recently in my August 2013 post, Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns. Since hurricanes are heat engines that take heat energy from the oceans and convert it to the energy of their winds, rising ocean temperatures due to global warming should make the strongest storms stronger, though the poor quality and relatively short length of the global database of hurricanes and typhoons make it difficult to tell if this has already begun to occur. Hurricane scientists expect to see a 2% - 11% increase in the intensity of hurricanes and typhoons (aka tropical cyclones) by 2100. Later this week, I'll have a more detailed look at the conditions that helped fuel the incredible strength of Super Typhoon Haiyan, and discuss possible linkages to climate change.


Video 1. After Super Typhoon Haiyan ravaged the Philippines, climate change representative Yeb Sano pleaded with the world to take immediate, drastic action to reduce climate change-causing carbon dioxide emissions in an emotional speech at the UN's climate meeting in Warsaw, Poland.

The Philippine Red Cross is appealing for donations.

Portlight disaster relief charity is reaching out to disability organizations in the Philippines to provide durable medical equipment. and welcomes donations.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 185. NttyGrtty:
...and on a lighter note, it is 11-12-13 at 14:15 central standard time.
It happens again next year at 12-13-14 at 15:16. After that I don't think it will happen again until the year 3003 when it goes 01-02-03 at 04:05. :P
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Quoting 189. NttyGrtty:
Dance Little Jean...
So you do know......Cool
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Quoting 164. Minnemike:
Dr. Master's has written a lot about 'loaded dice'. there have been discussion here at great length about the complexities of atmospheric science.. we each know that you can't get reliable forecasts a week out and climate science is dealing with massively larger scales.

this stuff is not new ground, and spaces between all the hype are where one will find reality. anyone taking this singular storm as a baton to run their leg of an argumentative case over something as huge as global climate... no matter which side of any debate.. you're running a fool's race. alarmists and denialists alike. and name calling sucks too.. especially when i do it in the previous sentence! ;)

Who is running with that baton? Alarmists and denialists seem like perfectly good words to me. I think realist is a great word, too.

I think you are being a bit alarmist about the preceding discussion.

Global climate change is not as huge as the subject of what to do about it. As long as people continue to succeed in bogging down the problem solving process, the what-to-do will remain huger.
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Quoting 186. ricderr:
I see you are a "Love Doctors" fan also IRG



one of those things i miss from moving away...lex and terry were good too
Lexxus has gone ric....
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Quoting 171. PalmBeachWeather:
cRR... Working a few storms, and being in a few storms , there are a the good people , and the bad people....Some are in it to help, some are in it for monetary virtues... It's sad , but I have seen both sides.

I know.
I'm also pessimistic on who get to win and who get to lose.
Though helping is imo simply the best investment, strange the 'bad' rarely understand this. Dimwitted in a world already reduced to a stifling couple thousand square feet in those ruins, or a devastated street full of other lost people.

As a kid of 8 I travelled through Darwin shortly after it was wiped of the map by Cyclone Tracy and I remember a couple of walls once a home with a roughly painted sign 'Keep out or be shot' in front of it. Saw what it had to mean. Society destroyed and there really are bad guys out there.
Member Since: April 3, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 165
Quoting 187. PalmBeachWeather:
I knew a man Bojangles and he'd dance for you..Sorry, showing my age again..
Dance Little Jean...
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Quoting 157. DavidHOUTX:
This is a terrible story:



Here is the Church



I certainly don't know all the particulars in this story, but I am sure the actions of the "people" turning those folks away did not reflect the heart of the "church." I can honestly say there have been times in my own church where the actions of a person or two did not reflect the church's mission, policy, or goals. In fact, I could compare that to this Weatherundeground blog. I'm sure many would agree that there are those on here that are "members" that do not reflect an accurate view of the intent of the blog.
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Quoting 185. NttyGrtty:
...and on a lighter note, it is 11-12-13 at 14:15 central standard time.
I knew a man Bojangles and he'd dance for you..Sorry, showing my age again..
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I see you are a "Love Doctors" fan also IRG



one of those things i miss from moving away...lex and terry were good too
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...and on a lighter note, it is 11-12-13 at 14:15 central standard time.
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Quoting 178. NCstu:

"When I was a boy and I would see scary things in the news, my mother would say to me, "Look for the helpers. You will always find people who are helping." To this day, especially in times of "disaster," I remember my mother's words and I am always comforted by realizing that there are still so many helpers – so many caring people in this world."

-Mr. Rogers
He was good for the kids.... We need more Mr. McFeely's in the world
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And just like that it's quiet, which is a good thing.

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Quoting 180. schwankmoe:


what a well-reasoned response!

what, you think doping the atmosphere isn't going to have any effects?
Bud Light affects everything... Well, too much does.
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Quoting 177. indianrivguy:


I spoke briefly Saturday morning...

I miss miniskirts.. sighs.. that's where the saying "location, location, location came from..:)
It was a big thing in Xenia , Ohio where I grew up IRG... Small town sin...
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Quoting 134. luvtogolf:


Totally irrelevant.


what a well-reasoned response!

what, you think doping the atmosphere isn't going to have any effects?
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Quoting 126. bappit:

I think you missed the point of my post. Re-read it and pay attention to the word I emphasized.


i understood your post. i'm saying my metaphor was correct in the first place and explained why.
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178. NCstu
Quoting 161. PalmBeachWeather:
David... There are thousands and thousands of sad stories regarding this storm. It's hard to listen and cope with it. Every disaster has similar stories... Very sad and hard to listen to.

"When I was a boy and I would see scary things in the news, my mother would say to me, "Look for the helpers. You will always find people who are helping." To this day, especially in times of "disaster," I remember my mother's words and I am always comforted by realizing that there are still so many helpers – so many caring people in this world."

-Mr. Rogers
Member Since: August 7, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 431
Quoting 174. PalmBeachWeather:
I see you are a "Love Doctors" fan also IRG


I spoke briefly Saturday morning...

I miss miniskirts.. sighs.. that's where the saying "location, location, location came from..:)
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Quoting 175. MrMixon:


Oreos May Be As Addictive As Cocaine

!
They are pretty good MrMixon... But I'll take Reese's candy any day.
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Quoting 168. indianrivguy:


if you think steriods are powerful, you should see what double stuff oreos have done to ME ! :)


Oreos May Be As Addictive As Cocaine

!
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Quoting 168. indianrivguy:


if you think steriods are powerful, you should see what double stuff oreos have gone to ME ! :)
I see you are a "Love Doctors" fan also IRG
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Quoting 169. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I have had it done too myself many years ago coming into montreal late at night cold wet in the middle of winter saw a church walk the steps to step inside to get warm nothing else but a priest inside the church told me to leave cause I could not come inside for that as I walk out I heard the doors lock behind me that was back in 83 I have not set foot inside a church since and never will
Sorry to hear about that man. You're always welcomed at my church. We love the Canadians!
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Quoting 170. GTstormChaserCaleb:
What? You couldn't wear mini skirts in the 60s? That's travesty! :P
I know... But it looks good when your guy wore bell-bottoms.
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Quoting 166. cRRKampen:

True, but this something else. Yes, gangs and psychopaths and scared people galore but the vast majority of people will try to collect stories of giving, helping and sheltering.

Look at this big church.
How can they possibly keep out dead tired relief workers.
Looks like that church needs to be evacuated and sold. Too much money there methinx.
cRR... Working a few storms, and being in a few storms , there are a the good people , and the bad people....Some are in it to help, some are in it for monetary virtues... It's sad , but I have seen both sides.
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Quoting 167. PalmBeachWeather:
And to think I had detention for having a mini skirt on in the 60's...Guess priorities are different for each situation. Praying for all affected by the storm.
What? You couldn't wear mini skirts in the 60s? That's travesty! :P
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Quoting 160. StormTrackerScott:



Terrible! God would take anybody in with no boundries. Unreal that a church would stoop so low.
I have had it done too myself many years ago coming into montreal late at night cold wet in the middle of winter saw a church walk the steps to step inside to get warm nothing else but a priest inside the church told me to leave cause I could not come inside for that as I walk out I heard the doors lock behind me that was back in 83 I have not set foot inside a church since and never will
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Quoting 148. PalmBeachWeather:
Absolutely... As was Mark McGuire,Sammy Sosa, Jose Canseco...Blood doping by Lance Armstrong... Look at the before and after pictures... Too obvious.


if you think steriods are powerful, you should see what double stuff oreos have done to ME ! :)
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And to think I had detention for having a mini skirt on in the 60's...Guess priorities are different for each situation. Praying for all affected by the storm.
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Quoting 161. PalmBeachWeather:
David... There are thousands and thousands of sad stories regarding this storm. It's hard to listen and cope with it. Every disaster has similar stories... Very sad and hard to listen to.

True, but this something else. Yes, gangs and psychopaths and scared people galore but the vast majority of people will try to collect stories of giving, helping and sheltering.

Look at this big church.
How can they possibly keep out dead tired relief workers.
Looks like that church needs to be evacuated and sold. Too much money there methinx.
Member Since: April 3, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 165
Don't look to science for 100% agreement on anything. Those folks are a contentious and skeptical lot.

There is not 100% agreement on the best weather model, but I still use those imperfect model results to pick out clothes for my vacations.

There is not 100% agreement on the best design for a bridge, but I still cross numerous bridges every day without fear of them falling.

There is (still) not 100% agreement on the health dangers posed by smoking*, but I avoid tobacco because the MAJORITY of scientists say the stuff will kill you (well, and I watched it kill my father, which I know is anecdotal, but humans are emotional beings and personal anecdotal evidence tends to be weighted rather heavily in our decision-making).


*For instance, here is recent a Heartland Institute webpage that, besides trying to sell you a book, provides a lengthy defense of smoking and plays down the suspected health effects of smoking tobacco.
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Dr. Master's has written a lot about 'loaded dice'. there have been discussion here at great length about the complexities of atmospheric science.. we each know that you can't get reliable forecasts a week out and climate science is dealing with massively larger scales.

this stuff is not new ground, and spaces between all the hype are where one will find reality. anyone taking this singular storm as a baton to run their leg of an argumentative case over something as huge as global climate... no matter which side of any debate.. you're running a fool's race. alarmists and denialists alike. and name calling sucks too.. especially when i do it in the previous sentence! ;)
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Good evening from a flat calm, 25/C, cloudless night over southern Spain.
Thank you Dr Masters for this informative update.
I pulled out a line from the blog heading and I cant help but notice that:-
1, The top 10 are actually 12 in total in the list!
2, 6 of the top 12 storms in the "top 10" have occurred in the period from the start of this centaury.

"With Angela Fritz' help, I've put together a "top-ten" list of most intense world tropical cyclones at landfall."

Based on this list I can only conclude mathematically that one day, maybe soon all 12 of the top 10 storms will be occurring in this centaury.
I might be wrong of course.
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Quoting 157. DavidHOUTX:
This is a terrible story:



Here is the Church


Hard to believe and shocking indeed. Apocalyptic desparation between the ruins.
There is some PTSS running wild already.
Member Since: April 3, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 165
Quoting 157. DavidHOUTX:
This is a terrible story:



Here is the Church

David... There are thousands and thousands of sad stories regarding this storm. It's hard to listen and cope with it. Every disaster has similar stories... Very sad and hard to listen to.
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Quoting 157. DavidHOUTX:
This is a terrible story:



Here is the Church




Terrible! God would take anybody in with no boundries. Unreal that a church would stoop so low.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2644
Quoting 135. SeALWx:


That pic is a dramatic hockey stick shape, no denying that.

However, it does absolutely nothing to answer the question posed in any meaningful way.

lawyer:"objection."
lawyer:"off topic and inflammatory"
judge:"sustained"
Off topic and inflammatory.? In what way.?? Why not be the prosecutor as well.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20896
I found out something, i saw images of the last few days of Haiyan, and found out that the disturbance east of India resulted from the same low that TD 30 formed from
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This is a terrible story:



Here is the Church

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Quoting ncstorm:


Im going back to work but before I go, I didnt post any fallacy..I posted an link from "The Guardian" stating more research was needed before stating Haiyan was a result of GW as well as what Dr. Masters said..I didnt write that stuff..its written and on the world wide web for anyone to view..You guys always ask for evidence and when you get it you make up stuff..

also..way to skirt around the question which seems to happen a lot on this blog..
all you are doing is making characterizations and lumping opinions. it comes off as a smear campaign.
yes, it is fallacy to ask where the 97% consensus is on a Typhoon's relationship to increasing CO2 in the atmosphere.
why?
because the subjects of percentage consensus are entirely different. the "97%" represents a number of people who accept a theory, the other percentage you're inferring represents a number of people who accept the theory's causation of an event.
theory does not equal event.
it is another type of fallacy to present the 97% of climate scientists as alarmists in your already mixed comparison.
refer to my original response about how 100% alarmist do make the correlation, and recognize that is the difference between an alarmist and a rational pragmatist.
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Was Haiyan Caused By Climate Change? We Might Know In 30 Years
Dan Satterfield, 12 November 2013

On the impact of Typhoon Haiyan in the area around Tacloban
Dave Petley's landslide blog, 11 November 2013

---------------------------

I once again hear the cranes calling, heading for the south. This afternoon and evening there was row after row of cranes over my roof, and I took a video of them. I think the migratory birds use Rhine River for their navigation.



Good night everybody!
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Quoting 147. NEFLWATCHING:
So sad, really. I note the civility that was displayed when Haiyan was coming ashore went out the window, and now we are back to thinking that posting our opinions on AGW are going to instantly change someone else's mind. Sigh.

LOL I am not naive about that happening!

People who are silent are my intended audience.

Edit: And this discussion in fact has been quite civil.
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Quoting 134. luvtogolf:


Totally irrelevant.
Had to tell my opinion
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Quoting 149. bappit:
\
I did not suggest we forget anything, but it is well known that the denialists above all else want to create the appearance of a debate. It is wise to be clear about what is being denied--not debated.

Crystal. Engraved in stone.
Though I quit 'debating'. But for laymen your wisdom stands.
Member Since: April 3, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 165
I gotta go buy 20 bucks o gas and plant 4 saplings,


Tooodles'
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
Quoting 147. NEFLWATCHING:
So sad, really. I note the civility that was displayed when Haiyan was coming ashore went out the window, and now we are back to thinking that posting our opinions on AGW are going to instantly change someone else's mind. Sigh.

Of course not. But Haiyan did a great job and it's good to commemorate this. Okay with that?
Member Since: April 3, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 165
Quoting 141. cRRKampen:

Yes, let's forget the incredibly hot summer preceding this typhoon season in that region. Just another 'red herring'. Let's behold any event one at a time so as not to see any red thread in the show. Is Abottism the new enlightenment?

I did not suggest we forget anything, but it is well known that the denialists above all else want to create the appearance of a debate. It is wise to be clear about what is being denied--not debated.
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Quoting 99. schwankmoe:


was barry bonds' record-setting 73rd home run in the 2001 season the result of steroid use?

Absolutely... As was Mark McGuire,Sammy Sosa, Jose Canseco...Blood doping by Lance Armstrong... Look at the before and after pictures... Too obvious.
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So sad, really. I note the civility that was displayed when Haiyan was coming ashore went out the window, and now we are back to thinking that posting our opinions on AGW are going to instantly change someone else's mind. Sigh.
Member Since: September 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 193
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 2:00 PM EST Tuesday 12 November 2013
Condition:Mostly Cloudy
Pressure:30.4 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:31.6°F
Dewpoint:11.1°F
Humidity:42%
Wind:NW 18 gust 31 mph
Wind Chill: 20
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Quoting 137. Patrap:
If your coming to a Science entry to discuss Camille's last recon, well,it was the Afternoon of the 17th as reported in the reports.

And those are valid.

Not "24" Hours before landfall.

Camille's Eye crossed the Coast around 11 pm, 7 hours after the last recon.


Maybe try a lil o research before er, discussing something that's easily available..

Citations bring a lil credence as well to a post.
Like here.

The last reconnaissance flight was made early Sunday afternoon, and the crew recorded a central pressure of 26.61 inches (901 mb) and clocked maximum winds at more than 200 mph near the center (USACE 1970). Hurricane-force winds extended 60 miles from the center and gales outward about 180 miles. The storm was now at its peak and was located less than 100 miles from the mouth of the Mississippi River. No hurricane this intense had ever struck the mainland of the United States in recorded history.

By 7 p.m., Camille was 60 miles south of Gulfport, moving north-northwest about 15 mph and was expected to move inland near Gulfport that evening (USACE 1970) (Figure 2). An offshore drilling rig was raked by winds estimated to be about 170 miles per hour. Three barrier islands off the coast separate the Mississippi Sound from the Gulf of Mexico, normally providing some buffer from landfalling storms, but during Camille, these islands were ravaged by the storm's power. Two islands lost more than 300 acres to erosion, and the third, Ship Island, was breached (Leyden 1985). On the Mississippi shore, the wind increased until 10 p.m., its sound a continuous roar (ESSA, 1969a).



I obviously either was recalling incorrectly or my source is wrong about the last recon being 24 hours before landfall. I apologize.

What was the 170 mph wind reading at the oil rig based on? Was this a measured or estimated wind speed? The surge alone could account for the massive coastal devastation. Also, any major hurricane is going to produce a continuous roar for those experiencing the worst of the storm.

Still, maybe it did make landfall with 190 mph winds. I just would like to see more evidence before accepting this as fact. But again, I am sorry for my mis-informed post.
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Quoting 140. Minnemike:
i don't think you understood me.
your characterization was a fallacy.
Fallacy: A statement or an argument based on a false or invalid inference.
in multiple ways, you made broad and sweeping false comparisons.


Im going back to work but before I go, I didnt post any fallacy..I posted an link from "The Guardian" stating more research was needed before stating Haiyan was a result of GW as well as what Dr. Masters said..I didnt write that stuff..its written and on the world wide web for anyone to view..You guys always ask for evidence and when you get it you make up stuff..

also..way to skirt around the question which seems to happen a lot on this blog..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.