Category 1 Typhoon Haiyan Hitting Vietnam; Extreme Damage in the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:09 PM GMT on November 10, 2013

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Typhoon Haiyan is closing in on the northern Vietnam coast near the Chinese border as a much-weakened Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds, after devastating the Philippines on Thursday and Friday as an extreme Category 5 storm with top winds of 195 mph. Satellite loops show that Haiyan no longer has a well-defined eye, but the typhoon still has a large area of intense thunderstorms which are bringing heavy rains of up to 1.5 inches per hour to Vietnam and Southeastern China. Haiyan will weaken and dissipate by Monday as it pushes inland over southern China, but the 8+ inches of rain that the storm will dump on Vietnam and Southeastern China will cause major flooding problems.

Haiyan is the third significant storm to hit Vietnam in the past six weeks. According to reliefweb.int, in the first two weeks of October, Central Vietnam was hit by two Category 1 storms, Typhoons Wutip and Nari, leaving behind significant damages in nine provinces. The total economic loss due to Nari was $71 million. Typhoon Wutip's damages were estimated at $663 million. According to EM-DAT, this makes Wutip the second most expensive natural disaster in Vietnamese history, behind the $785 million in damages caused by 2009's Typhoon Ketsana.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Haiyan taken at approximately 4:25 UTC November 10, 2013. At the time, Haiyan was a Category 1 storm with top winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Extreme damage in the Philippines
With a preliminary death toll of 1,200, Haiyan already ranks as the 8th deadliest typhoon in Philippines history. The deadliest typhoon in Philippines history was Typhoon Thelma of 1991, which killed between 5101 - 8000 people, reports wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post on Philippines typhoon history. Haiyan will become the deadest typhoon in Philippines history if the estimates today of 10,000 dead hold up. Bloomberg Industries is estimating insured damages of $2 billion and total economic damages of $14 billion, making Haiyan the most expensive natural disaster in Philippines history. This is the third time in the past 12 months the Philippines have set a new record for their most expensive natural disaster in history. The record was initially set by Typhoon Bopha of December 2012, with $1.7 billion in damage; that record was beaten by the $2.2 billion in damage done by the August 2013 floods on Luzon caused by moisture associated with Typhoon Trami.


Figure 2. A Filipino boy carries bottled water amongst the damaged houses where a ship was washed ashore in Tacloban city, Leyte province, central Philippines on Sunday, Nov. 10, 2013. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila)

The greatest death toll from Haiyan is likely to be in the capital of Leyte, Tacloban (population 221,000), which received a direct hit from Haiyan's northern eyewall. A stark eyewitness account posted to Facebook of what Tacloban endured, by storm chaser Josh Morgerman of iCyclone.com:

"First off, Tacloban City is devastated. The city is a horrid landscape of smashed buildings and completely defoliated trees, with widespread looting and unclaimed bodies decaying in the open air. The typhoon moved fast and didn't last long--only a few hours--but it struck the city with absolutely terrifying ferocity. At the height of the storm, as the wind rose to a scream, as windows exploded and as our solid-concrete downtown hotel trembled from the impact of flying debris, as pictures blew off the walls and as children became hysterical, a tremendous storm surge swept the entire downtown. Waterfront blocks were reduced to heaps of rubble. In our hotel, trapped first-floor guests smashed the windows of their rooms to keep from drowning and screamed for help, and we had to drop our cameras and pull them out on mattresses and physically carry the elderly and disabled to the second floor. Mark's leg was ripped open by a piece of debris and he'll require surgery. The city has no communication with the outside world. The hospitals are overflowing with the critically injured. The surrounding communities are mowed down. After a bleak night in a hot, pitch-black, trashed hotel, James, Mark, and I managed to get out of the city on a military chopper and get to Cebu via a C-130--sitting next to corpses in body bags. Meteorologically, Super Typhoon HAIYAN was fascinating; from a human-interest standpoint, it was utterly ghastly. It's been difficult to process."


Video 1. Storm chasers James Reynolds, Josh Morgerman and Mark Thomas of iCyclone.com were in the capital of Leyte Province, Tacloban, which received a direct hit from Super Typhoon Haiyan. Video includes the remarkable winds and storm surge of Haiyan, and the rescue of injured people from flood waters.

Extreme damage near the initial landfall location
Rescuers have finally reached the south shore of Samar Island and the city of Guiuan (population 47,000), where Haiyan initially made landfall with winds estimated at 195 mph. Typhoon and hurricane maximum wind speed estimates are only valid for over water exposure, and winds over land are typically reduced by about 15%, due to friction. This would put Haiyan's winds at 165 mph over land areas on the south shore of Guiuan Island. This is equivalent to a high end EF-3 tornado, and damage photos from the town do show tornado-like damage--though much of the worst damage appears to be due to the storm surge. A new Doppler radar that was scheduled to go into operation in 2014 was blown off the tower it was installed on.


Figure 3. Col John Sanchez, Central Command, AFP took these photos from a PAF Nomad aircracft over Guiuan, E. Samar, Sunday morning from 1030H to 1045H: "Guiuan bore the brunt of Super Typhoon Yolanda at its first landfall Friday. One hundred percent of the structures either had their roofs blown away or sustained major damage. Nearly all coconut trees fell. We saw people in the streets, seemingly dazed. Trucks and cars were left in the streets where they were stopped in their tracks as Yolanda struck. We were probably the first outsiders to fly over the area since Friday and obviously, no relief goods have arrived there yet. It was almost lunchtime but there was no smoke from cooking fires. The 2.4 km runway is clear of debris and could still be used by C130 aircraft. Yolanda is probably worse than Pablo and the only reason why we have no reports of casualties up to now is that communications systems in Region 8 are down." Image credit: Col John Sanchez , Central Command, AFP.

Haiyan's place in history
Haiyan hit Guiuan, on the Philippine island of Samar, at 4:40 am local time November 8, 2013 (20:40 UTC November 7.) Three hours before landfall, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) assessed Haiyan’s sustained winds at 195 mph, gusting to 235 mph, making it the 4th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. Satellite loops show that Haiyan weakened only slightly, if at all, in the two hours after JTWC’s advisory, so the super typhoon likely made landfall with winds near 195 mph. The next JTWC intensity estimate, for 00Z UTC November 8, about three hours after landfall, put the top winds at 185 mph. Averaging together these estimates gives a strength of 190 mph an hour after landfall. Thus, Haiyan had winds of 190 - 195 mph at landfall, making it the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history. The previous record was held by the Atlantic's Hurricane Camille of 1969, which made landfall in Mississippi with 190 mph winds.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), which uses their own techniques to estimate typhoon strength via satellite imagery, put Haiyan's peak strength at 125 knots (145 mph), using a 10-minute averaging time for wind speeds. The Philippines weather agency (PAGASA) also uses a 10-minute averaging time for their typhoon wind advisories, and winds estimated by either JMA or PAGASA for Haiyan have appeared in the media, resulting in some confusion about what the typhoon's winds were at landfall. The averaging time used by JTWC and NHC is 1-minute, resulting in a higher wind estimate. To convert from 10-minute averaged winds to 1-minute average, one conversion factor that is commonly used is to multiply by 1.14--though lower conversion factors are sometimes used. Note that even after correcting for the difference between using 1-minute and 10-minute wind averaging times, the JMA wind estimates are well below what JTWC estimated; JMA consistently estimates weaker winds for high-end typhoons than JTWC. Since we have no actual measurements of the winds or pressure from Haiyan at landfall, we don't know which agency made a more accurate wind estimate.

With Angela Fritz' help, I've put together a list of most intense world tropical cyclones at landfall, using 1-minute averaging times. The list is unofficial and may have omissions; email me at jmasters@wunderground.com if you have suggestions for improvement:



Tropical disturbance 90W will bring more heavy rain to the Philippines
A tropical disturbance located east of the Philippines near 5°N 136°E, (Invest 90W), is steadily organizing, and has the potential to become a tropical depression by Monday. The disturbance has developed an elongated surface circulation and a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is low, but the disturbance is too close to the Equator intensify quickly, since the storm will not be able to leverage Earth's spin to get itself spinning. The disturbance has a high chance of development, according to Sunday's 17:30 UTC Western Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. A number of recent runs by the GFS model have predicted that the disturbance will organize into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm by Tuesday, when it will pass through the southern or central Philippines. I expect 90W will be organized enough to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4" to the area devastated by Super Typhoon Haiyan on Tuesday and Wednesday, and give a 70% chance it will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm by Tuesday. The Japan Meteorological Agency is already classifying 90W as a tropical depression.

The Red Cross is appealing for donations.

Portlight disaster relief charity is reaching out to disability organizations in the Philippines to provide durable medical equipment. and welcomes donations.

Google Person Finder: Typhoon Yolanda - Google.org

Links
Wunderblogger Lee Grenci discusses mesovorticies in the eye of Haiyan in his latest post.
Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt reviews the Philippine's typhoon history.
The University of Wisconsin CIMSS Satellite Blog has a great collection of satellite images of Haiyan.
NOAA's Michael Folmer has a post showing the unusual burst of lightning that occurred at landfall in Haiyan.
Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknows, my August 2013 blog post.
Storm Chaser James Reynolds on Twitter, from Tacloban, Leyte.
Storm Chaser Jim Edds on Twitter, from Tacloban, Leyte.

Jeff Masters

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One of the first places to be hit by the typhoon was:-
Manicani island, Philippines
I would like to direct all the people who are arguing about wind speeds and storm surges to this island.
Its quite small and will have all the required evidence as to wind, tides etc at the start of the impact.
AS its a small island it will have no external influence's and it was as far as I can determine passed over directly by the eye of the storm.
Keep an eye on this little island as its in a way the test tube test for all that this storm brought with it and probably nowhere in the whole of the Philippines will there be a place which was hit harder.
The island is just south of Guiuan and on the way to Tacloban.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2524
'Zoraida' to make landfall in Surigao del Sur
ABS-CBNnews.com
Posted at 11/11/2013 6:05 PM | Updated as of 11/11/2013 6:05 PM

MANILA - Days after super typhoon "Yolanda" ravaged the central Philippines, another storm is set to make landfall in Surigao del Sur.

State weather bureau PAGASA said tropical depression "Zoraida" has maintained its strength and continues to move in a west-northwest direction.

Weather forecaster Aldczar Aurelio said the new weather disturbance is expected to make landfall in the vicinity of Surigao del Sur and Davao Oriental, at around 11 a.m. Tuesday.

"Zoraida" was last seen 634 kilometers southeast of Hinatuan in Surigao del Sur. It has maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour near the center.

Public storm warning signal number 1 is currently raised over the provinces of Siquijor, Southern Cebu, Bohol, Negros Oriental, Negros Occidental, Southern Antique, Iloilo, Guimaras, Dinagat Island, Siargao, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Davao Oriental, Compostela Valley, Davao del Norte, Samal Island, Bukidnon, Misamis Oriental and Camiguin.

If it continues in its current direction, it is expected to be in the vicinity of Agusan del Sur by Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to be at around 100 kilometers southwest of Coron, Palawan.

PAGASA warns residents of areas under a public storm warning signal to prepare for possible flashfloods and landslides.

'Zoraida' is expected to bring moderate to heavy rainfall.


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433. VR46L
This is the kind of storm I like ... not very strong falling in Desert region with lower population and maybe the storm might have kept the pirates at home for a day or two





Edit
Can I take that crass comment back I didn't realise people had died
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7100
Good morning.

Thousands evacuated as weakened Typhoon Haiyan makes landfall in Vietnam
Australian Network News, Updated 4 hours 24 minutes ago

Extract:

... Susan Mackay, the United Nation's spokeswoman in Vietnam, told Pacific Beat the port city of Haiphong is believed to be the worst affected.

She says the storm uprooted trees, blew off roofs and caused power blackouts.

"We can say today that obviously there is a great deal of relief that it has not been more severe," Ms Mackay said.

"Although for individual families that are affected this has been an extremely serious storm, and of course there will be a lot of damage that needs to be cleared up."

Haiyan changes course

Residents of Hanoi were braced for heavy rains and flooding, while tens of thousands of people in coastal areas were ordered to take shelter.

"We have evacuated more than 174,000 households, which is equivalent to more than 600,000 people," said an official report by Vietnam's flood and storm control department.

The storm changed course on Sunday, prompting further mass evacuations of about 52,000 people in northern provinces by the coast.

Tuan Van Doan, Asia regional adviser for the aid group Save the Children, has told Asia Pacific the change of direction left local communities there little time to prepare.

"The local authorities learned about the typhoon's new direction only yesterday morning and only in the afternoon they started to mobilise the community for large scale evacuation," he said.

"Obviously it's left the communities and authorities with too little time for preparation, especially for any large-scale evacuation."

The Red Cross said Haiyan's changed path meant that "the disaster area could be enlarged from nine provinces to as many as 15", stretching the country's resources. ...
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Quoting 428. ncforecaster:


First, you need to grow up, no matter how old you might actually might be-talking about punching someone in the mouth with whom you might disagree.

That aside, there's no evidence to suggest that category five conditions, not even in gusts, impacted downtown Tacloban City. As Dr. Master's even noted, most of the damage there appears to have been caused by the surge. I'm not going to keep repeating the same thing, and the reasons why it appears downtown Tacloban City didn't see category five conditions. You can read my preceding posts to better understand why I come to that conclusion.

Moreover, if you were to go by Dr. Master's point that the MSW likely encountered at the point of initial landfall was 165 mph (due to the frictional effects of land), that in itself would further increase the possibility that it may not have even brought sustained category five MSW to the areas impacted at the second landfall. Regardless, there's no evidence to support the idea that there were wind gusts in downtown Tacloban City that exceeded 150 mph, at most.

Please don't confuse what I'm saying with other areas closer to shore that had a directional wind flow less effected by land interaction, that did experience category five conditions, as best as can be surmised.


This is not about merely 'disagree'. This is holding a moloch responsible for systematic postponement of AGW-adaptation and -mitigation efforts. There is a reason it took a Sandy to finally do something about sea defenses in the region it struck.
I could hound the electorate as well (and so I say: Thank you Sandy - your confrontation with reality was early and therefore mild).
As for the punch in the mouth - not me, I'm just calling on one of those upcoming 'biggest/strongest tornadoes ever seen' or some trivbit like that.

I travelled through this a an eight year old:



Darwin after the high cat 4 (but tiny) Cyclone Tracy.

"Regardless, there's no evidence to support the idea that there were wind gusts in downtown Tacloban City that exceeded 150 mph, at most."

Downtown, I'd never thought anyone would guess much higher gusts in a city centre with a spate of multistory concrete buildings at a somewhat inland bay. Still, outside the city (to the west) is evidence of higher winds. But I'm mainly responding to the idea Haiyan even made her first landfall as a cat 4 which is clearly not the case.

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430. VR46L
Do Tropical storms often hit Somalia ?

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7100
Good morning. Congrats to all the veterans that blog in WU on their day.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15660
Quoting 407. cRRKampen:

Oh, there's the bully idiot feeding off 10k dead bodies.
He needs to be bashed in the mouth (yeah, sue me!).

And then that nonsensical blab about mph-details re the winds around Tacloban, well the forest around says enough. Gone, go figure - and thas was not from the surge.


First, you need to grow up, no matter how old you might actually be-talking about punching someone in the mouth with whom you might disagree.

That aside, there's no evidence to suggest that category five conditions, not even in gusts, impacted downtown Tacloban City. As Dr. Master's even noted, most of the damage there appears to have been caused by the surge. I'm not going to keep repeating the same thing, and the reasons why it appears downtown Tacloban City didn't see category five conditions. You can read my preceding posts to better understand why I come to that conclusion.

Moreover, if you were to go by Dr. Master's point that the MSW likely encountered at the point of initial landfall was 165 mph (due to the frictional effects of land), that in itself would further increase the possibility that it may not have even brought sustained category five MSW to the areas impacted at the second landfall. Regardless, there's no evidence to support the idea that there were wind gusts in downtown Tacloban City that exceeded 150 mph, at most. That kind of wind is very intense, and it appears too many people don't understand just how destructive that kind of wind can be, in and of, itself.

Please don't confuse what I'm saying with other areas closer to shore that had a directional wind flow less effected by land interaction, that did experience category five conditions, as best as can be surmised.

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Quoting 416. LargoFl:
7-day for Tampa Bay area.................


I'm so sick and tired of watching your weekly forecast of Florida, well not really, just kinda jealous!!!!
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426. VR46L
More of Interest to British Isles bloggers The Disaster emergency committee Blog
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7100
Quoting 405. Tribucanes:
At the end of the day, the true wind speed is not all that important. I think we can all agree this was a historically strong storm at landfall. With the death toll likely to rise into the tens of thousands, sending money, prayers, and whatever else we can to help with the recovery is what's important. We have some very smart bloggers arguing semantics over a wind speed we'll likely never accurately know. With Tacloban completely leveled and bodies hanging from trees and strewn everywhere, we know it was as bad as it gets. And that's just Tacloban.


I agree, but were just fans sitting on the sidelines watching the game, playing fantasy forecasting!!

God Bless all of them!
I feel so helpless with all of my training and experience, were so far away to help!
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Central Command, AFP
19 minutes ago
The Philippine Navy's LC551 will be accepting passengers and cargoes... Tacloban to Cebu on Wednesday, November 13th (no specific time yet)... Passengers can manifest at the TACLOBAN CITY AIRPORT... LC551 can ferry approx 1,000 passengers...

Please Share...


Also, people are begging for surveys of eastern Samar and are starting to imply there is a government cover-up regarding that area.

Mmore here.
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Special weather statement for:
=new= City of Toronto
=new= Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
=new= Sarnia - Petrolia - Western Lambton County
=new= Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
=new= Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
=new= Oxford - Brant
=new= Niagara
=new= City of Hamilton
=new= Burlington - Oakville
=new= Halton Hills - Milton
=new= Mississauga - Brampton
=new= Pickering - Oshawa - Southern Durham Region
=new= Kitchener - Cambridge - Region of Waterloo
=new= Guelph - Erin - Southern Wellington County
=new= Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
=new= Kingston - Prince Edward
=new= Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
=new= Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
=new= Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
=new= Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
=new= City of Ottawa
=new= Gatineau
=new= Prescott and Russell
=new= Cornwall - Morrisburg
=new= Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
=new= Parry Sound - Muskoka
=new= Haliburton
=new= Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
=new= Algonquin
=new= Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet
Watford - Pinery Park - Eastern Lambton County
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Caledon
Vaughan - Richmond Hill - Markham
Newmarket - Georgina - Northern York Region
Uxbridge - Beaverton - Northern Durham Region
Huron - Perth
Mount Forest - Arthur - Northern Wellington County
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland.

Sharp cold front moving through Southern Ontario today then
Snow squalls beginning this evening.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
An Arctic cold front will sweep through Southern Ontario today.
The front will reach the Bruce Peninsula and Algonquin region late
this morning, then the Windsor and the Greater Toronto area late this
afternoon and finally the Niagara and Ottawa areas early this
evening. A band of showers with the front is expected to change to
flurries as brisk northwesterly winds cause temperatures to fall
rapidly behind the cold front. This will likely result in reductions
to visibility and slippery road conditions.

Behind the front, the cold northwesterly flow over the relatively
warm waters of the Great Lakes is expected to create favourable
conditions for the formation of snow squalls southeast of Lake Huron
and Georgian Bay this evening.

A snow squall watch has been issued for areas expected to receive
local snowfall amounts of 10 cm by Tuesday morning, although higher
amounts will be possible under the heaviest bands. In addition,
motorists should expect winter driving conditions through Tuesday.

Environment Canada meteorologists will continue to monitor this
developing situation closely.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.

End
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59088
06z hr 48 gfs run

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59088
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59088
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59088
An Arctic cold front will sweep through Southern Ontario today.
In the wake of this front, northwesterly winds will usher in the
coldest air of the season and temperatures will struggle to rise
above the freezing mark on Tuesday. This cold northwesterly flow
over the relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes is expected to
create favourable conditions for the formation of snow squalls
southeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay this evening.

A snow squall watch has been issued for areas expected to receive
local snowfall amounts of 10 cm by Tuesday morning, although higher
amounts will be possible under the heaviest bands. In addition,
brisk winds and rapidly falling temperatures behind the cold front
will likely result in reductions to visibility and slippery road
conditions. Motorists should expect winter driving conditions
through Tuesday.

Environment Canada meteorologists will continue to monitor this
developing situation closely.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.

End
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Quoting 414. LargoFl:
Good Morning Folks!.....................


cold front inbound

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59088
417. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
1:24 PM WST November 11 2013
======================================

There is a weak low pressure system near 5.0S 95.0E, which is well north of the region. There is a slight chance of it developing into a tropical cyclone in the next couple of days. Even if it does develop, it is expected to move southwest and not enter the western region.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 50403
7-day for Tampa Bay area.................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50472
415. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZORAIDA
5:00 PM PhST November 11 2013
===================================

Tropical Depression "ZORAIDA" has maintained its strength as it continues to move in a west northwest direction

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Zoraida (1000 hPa) located at 5.8N 131.5E or 634 km southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #1

Visayas region
----------------
1. Siquijor
2. Southern Cebu
3. Bohol
4. Negros Oriental
5. Negros Occidental
6. Southern Antique
7. Iloilo
8. Guimaras

Mindanao region
-----------------
1. Dinagat Island
2. Siargao Island
3. Agusan del Norte
4. Agusan del Sur
5. Surigao del Norte
6. Surigao del Sur
7. Davao Oriental
8. Compostela Valley
9. Davao del Norte
10. Samal Island
11. Bukidnon
12. Misamis Oriental
13. Camiguin Island

Additional Information
===========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Sea travel is risky over the northern seaboard of northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of northern and central Luzon.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
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Good Morning Folks!.....................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50472
Quoting 405. Tribucanes:
At the end of the day, the true wind speed is not all that important. I think we can all agree this was a historically strong storm at landfall. With the death toll likely to rise into the tens of thousands, sending money, prayers, and whatever else we can to help with the recovery is what's important. We have some very smart bloggers arguing semantics over a wind speed we'll likely never accurately know. With Tacloban completely leveled and bodies hanging from trees and strewn everywhere, we know it was as bad as it gets. And that's just Tacloban.
..TTT
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50472
Quoting 353. AussieStorm:
Oh dear

Super Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda – another overhyped storm that didn’t match early reports.



I usually don't post on this site, but I'm laughing really hard at that article right now. I highly doubt that person will fix some of the errors he made in that article.
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From what I can tell, most of the damage in central Leyte and the other islands is not as catastrophic as in Guiuan and Tacloban based on the fact that the aerial surveys are showing most of the buildings' roofs partially or completely intact. I can tell there was still a fair amount of surge damage in several areas, though.



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Central Command, AFP
3 hours ago
UPDATE: (as of 11 1300H November 2013)

Death Toll: 942

Region VI: 39
Region VII: 59
Region VIII: 844

PIO

Central Command, AFP
18 minutes ago
Guian, Eastern Samar is now being secured by two companies from the 82nd DRC and "C" Company of the 14th IB.
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New pictures of Haiyan damage being posted on Central command's FB page.

Link
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Hello!!! Bark was literally ripped right of trees. That is all the proof i needed. Haiyan was a cat 5. It's hard to believe that people are even contesting this. Those people really have no clue.
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Quoting 353. AussieStorm:
Oh dear

Super Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda – another overhyped storm that didn’t match early reports.

Oh, there's the bully idiot feeding off 10k dead bodies.
He needs to be bashed in the mouth (yeah, sue me!).

And then that nonsensical blab about mph-details re the winds around Tacloban, well the forest around says enough. Gone, go figure - and thas was not from the surge.
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Quoting 405. Tribucanes:
At the end of the day, the true wind speed is not all that important. I think we can all agree this was a historically strong storm at landfall. With the death toll likely to rise into the tens of thousands, sending money, prayers, and whatever else we can to help with the recovery is what's important. We have some very smart bloggers arguing semantics over a wind speed we'll likely never accurately know. With Tacloban completely leveled and bodies hanging from trees and strewn everywhere, we know it was as bad as it gets. And that's just Tacloban.


Excellent post! Wish I could plus it 1000 times. That's what's most important, and my thoughts and most heartfelt prayers are with those who are suffering in its aftermath.
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At the end of the day, the true wind speed is not all that important. I think we can all agree this was a historically strong storm at landfall. With the death toll likely to rise into the tens of thousands, sending money, prayers, and whatever else we can to help with the recovery is what's important. We have some very smart bloggers arguing semantics over a wind speed we'll likely never accurately know. With Tacloban completely leveled and bodies hanging from trees and strewn everywhere, we know it was as bad as it gets. And that's just Tacloban.
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Quoting 369. Bluestorm5:
Might still be 170 kts at Guiuan landfall though.... but we'll never know.

I think a vast amount of analysis will continue for possibly years about this storm.
In addition there will be speculation as to whether it was a one off, or the forerunner to more of its kind.
The future is almost impossible to predict and given enough time and funding the data which has been accumulated from this storm can and will probably be fed into new and as yet non existent forms of analysis.
Things from thousands of year ago are being investigated at DNA levels and technology is way beyond what a lot of people think it at. The biggest problem in investigation is funding to do it.
I think in the future based on all the information presently available, reasonably accurate figures for storms will emerge from the data which is being saved today.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2524
I wonder when PAGASA will publish their numbers from whatever reporting stations they did get information from. The devastation has been so thorough that I don't see it happening soon...
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Quoting 400. Jaevyn:


Anyone can claim to be what ever they want on the web and there is little you can do to verify their claims. I myself am a meteorologist with a Doctorate in Geography, specializing in tropical weather.


And how does that make you supposedly more capable of estimating those winds, exactly?

I'm not concerned with whether you choose to believe that I used to work with the NWS or that I did a student internship at the NHC in 1994. This is all true as well as the other things I stated. Your opinion has no relevance to this reality and I'm not going to waste my time getting into a p#$#$g contest with you over it, or who's supposedly more qualified to estimate the winds in the video.

I'm sorry that you don't like nor agree with my own best educated guess, but it's most certainly no less valid than your own-no matter how knowledgeable you might think you are.
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Quoting 353. AussieStorm:
Oh dear

Super Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda – another overhyped storm that didn’t match early reports.
This is so sad. A guy supposedly knowledgeable in wx science and reporting who doesn't know that the Saffir-Simpson scale is not directly applicable to 10-minute winds.... something I learned the FIRST time I followed a WPac storm.... just pitiful.
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Quoting 399. ncforecaster:


I have 17 years of experience intercepting hurricanes myself (including multiple major ones), for one. In addition, I have been apart of damage surveys in the aftermath of severe weather events with the NWS.

You can have your opinion, I have my own.


Anyone can claim to be what ever they want on the web and there is little you can do to verify their claims. I myself am a meteorologist with a Doctorate in Geography, specializing in tropical weather.
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Quoting 395. Jaevyn:

How on earth would you know what those wind speeds were? You have nothing to measure it against. You also need to remember that due to friction sustained winds over land are 15% less than if they were at sea. By the way, I've seen both videos and I completely disagree. You have to remember that the topography of the area also plays a role in deflecting the strongest winds.


I have 17 years of experience intercepting hurricanes myself (including multiple major ones), for one. In addition, I have been apart of damage surveys in the aftermath of severe weather events with the NWS.

You can have your opinion, I have my own.
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Quoting 392. bappit:
Masters said winds decrease about 15%, on land immediately after landfall. So are you still saying it wasn't a category 5 storm?


I've never even implied it wasn't a category five Typhoon at the initial landfall and likely still one at its second landfall, as well.

I'm taking specifically about the peak wind gusts affecting downtown Tacloban City, as seen it the aforementioned video. That 15 % general reduction factor applies to the immediate coast at the land/sea interface. The area where the footage was captured is relatively much farther away-not to mention the winds were coming into the city from a land based direction-further diminishing the highest winds at that specific location.

As already alluded to, the storm was filling for the two hours or so before it reached its second landfall. I suspect it's likely that the immediate coastline around Palo got category five sustained winds. Unfortunately, we can only speculate in the absence of any direct measurements, such as recon.
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397. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36
15:00 PM JST November 11 2013
======================================

Caroline Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 4.8N 132.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 17 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 8.3N 126.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of Mindanao
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 50403
I can look at a youtube video and make up numbers, too. I don't because it is pointless.
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Quoting 390. ncforecaster:


This is the video I'm referencing. The peak wind gusts there in downtown Tacloban City aren't achieving category five intensity-for the reasons I've already noted. My best educated guess would be somewhere between 140 to 150 mph-which is very extreme!



How on earth would you know what those wind speeds were? You have nothing to measure it against. You also need to remember that due to friction sustained winds over land are 15% less than if they were at sea. By the way, I've seen both videos and I completely disagree. You have to remember that the topography of the area also plays a role in deflecting the strongest winds.
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Quoting 383. bappit:
Speculate all you want. You really have no evidence to support any of your opinions about Haiyan, yet you persist.


I'm basing it off the video evidence shown, damage pics posted, and my own 17 years of intercepting hurricanes myself.

With all due respect, you have no further evidence to support your opinion.
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Also, I think a lot of this hand-wringing about people not evacuating in an extremely poor faraway country totally different than America is very misplaced.

It's just not that simple. Some people - perhaps not so much in Tacloban, but certainly in some of the remoter places - simply can't evacuate. It would be like telling somebody with a rickety boat to evacuate the Florida Keys.

Then, some people are infirm, or are sheltering an invalid, and would have to leave somebody behind

Further, information in some areas may be very bad, and subject to wild rumor and exaggeration and inaccuracies - the crying wolf syndrome.

Perhaps most importantly, for others, abandoning their homes is abandoning their livelihood. Many people have no money and survive by the implements or area they have around their little shacks. Once they leave they are essentially throwing that away, and going on without may be as much a hardship as dying. It is almost like a captain going down with his ship.
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Masters said winds decrease about 15%, on land immediately after landfall. So are you still saying it wasn't a category 5 storm?
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Quoting 384. Astrometeor:



Despite the Philippines being a relatively poor country, they do get typhoons with a scary frequency. So, one would expect them to build to a much higher code than the US does.


I don't think a country's return period of tropical cyclones has any relevance to the building codes at that location. A lot depends on the economic stability of that country, and whether or not they can afford that kind of infrastructure. Haiti, for instance.
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Quoting 386. Skyepony:
Haiyan's eyewall in Tacloban.


This is the video I'm referencing. The peak wind gusts there in downtown Tacloban City aren't achieving category five intensity-for the reasons I've already noted. My best educated guess would be somewhere between 140 to 150 mph-which is very extreme!


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"1. Despite the Philippines being a relatively poor country, they do get typhoons with a scary frequency. So, one would expect them to build to a much higher code than the US does."

One of the most ridiculous statements I've ever read.
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He's crawfishin'.

(They swim backwards to escape danger.)
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Quoting 384. Astrometeor:


Two things:
1. Despite the Philippines being a relatively poor country, they do get typhoons with a scary frequency. So, one would expect them to build to a much higher code than the US does.
2. The trees. Who said that the trees are destroying homes? Especially since a lot of the trees there are coconuts or other native plants, plants that are built for typhoon-force winds. Only super-strength winds would bring some of those trees down.

Night everyone.


I'm specifically talking about the winds in Tacloban City. ..not the peak winds anywhere else. Secondly, the pics show how porous those building are, not remotely close to our coastal building codes. A poster on another forum, who actually lives in the area (unlike you and I), stated as much. Not to mention, all you have to do is use Google Earth to see the tightly bunched "shanties" throughout this area.
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386. Skyepony (Mod)
Haiyan's eyewall in Tacloban.
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385. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #61
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN (T1330)
15:00 PM JST November 11 2013
===================================

Overland Southern China

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Haiyan (996 hPa) located at 22.3N 107.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in north quadrant
120 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 23.7N 107.0E - Tropical Depression Overland Southern China
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 50403

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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