Super Typhoon Haiyan Closes in on the Philippines With 190 mph Sustained Winds

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:41 PM GMT on November 07, 2013

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Super Typhoon Haiyan is one of the most intense tropical cyclones in world history, with sustained winds an incredible 190 mph, gusting to 230 mph, said the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in their 15 UTC (10 am EST) November 7, 2013 advisory. Officially, the strongest tropical cyclone in world history was Super Typhoon Nancy of 1961, with sustained winds of 215 mph. However, it is now recognized (Black 1992) that the maximum sustained winds estimated for typhoons during the 1940s to 1960s were too strong. Since 1969, only three tropical cyclones have equaled Haiyan's 190 mph sustained winds--the Western Pacific's Super Typhoon Tip of 1979, the Atlantic's Hurricane Camille of 1969, and the Atlantic's Hurricane Allen of 1980. All three of these storms had a hurricane hunter aircraft inside of them to measure their top winds, but Haiyan's winds were estimated using only satellite images, making its intensity estimate of lower confidence. Some interpretations of satellite intensity estimates suggest that there may have been two super typhoons stronger than Tip--Super Typhoon Gay of 1992, and Super Typhoon Angela of 1995. We don't have any measurements of Haiyan's central pressure, but it may be close to the all-time record of 870 mb set by Super Typhoon Tip. The Japan Meteorological Agency estimated Haiyan's central pressure at 895 mb at 12 UTC (7 am EST) November 7, 2013. Haiyan has the most spectacular appearance I've ever seen on satellite loops, with a prominent eye surrounded by a huge, impenetrable-looking mass of intense eyewall thunderstorms with tops that reach into the lower stratosphere. With landfall expected to occur by 21 UTC (4 pm EST) on Thursday, Haiyan doesn't have time to weaken much before landfall, and will likely hit the Philippines at Category 5 strength.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Super Typhoon Haiyan taken at 4:25 UTC November 7, 2013. At the time, Haiyan was a Category 5 storm with top winds of 175 mph. The Philippines are visible at the left of the image, and the Caroline Islands at the lower right. Image credit: NASA.

Haiyan will be the third Category 5 typhoon to make landfall in the Philippines since 2010. In 2010, Super Typhoon Megi peaked at 180 mph winds just east of Luzon Island in the Philippines, and made landfall in the Philippines as a Category 5 storm. Megi's landfall was proof that the Philippines can withstand a strike by a Category 5 storm without a catastrophe resulting, as Megi killed only 35 people, and did $276 million in damage. However, the last Category 5 storm to hit the Philippines--Super Typhoon Bopha, which hit the southern Philippine island of Mindanao on December 3, 2012--did cause a catastrophe. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history at the time.


Figure 2. Super Typhoon Megi as seen by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite at 10:35 a.m. Philippine Time (02:35 UTC) on October 18, 2010. Megi was bearing down on Luzon Island in the Philippines as a Category 5 storm with 170 mph winds. Megi killed 35 and did $276 million in damage, making it the 6th most expensive typhoon in Philippines history. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Haiyan's deadliest danger: heavy rains, high winds
The deadliest threat from Philippine typhoons is usually heavy rains, since the islands are very mountainous, leading to very high rainfall amounts capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides. Deforestation of the mountainous slopes has contributed to this problem in recent decades. The latest rainfall forecast from the 06Z November 7, 2013 run of the HWRF model is not encouraging. A 50-mile wide swath of 8+ inches of rain is predicted to cross the Central Philippines. The soils are already very wet from the heavy rains that Tropical Depression 30 dumped over the region on Monday, so the rains from Haiyan will runoff quickly and create life-threatening flooding. Haiyan's winds are also a huge concern, particularly in Tacloban, population 221,000, the capital of the province of Leyte. Tacloban will likely receive a direct hit, and I expect the sustained winds from Haiyan will be at Category 4 strength in the city.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall from the 06Z November 7, 2013 run of the HWRF model, for the 108-hour period ending at 18Z November 11, 2013. A 50-mile wide swath of 8+ inches of rain (medium dark red colors) is predicted to cross the Central Philippines and Northern Vietnam. This is likely an underestimate of the rains, since Haiyan is now stronger than what the HWRF model was predicting at 06Z. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP/EMC.

Haiyan a serious storm surge threat
Haiyan will cause much higher storm surge damage than is typical for a Philippines typhoon. A worst-case scenario now appears unlikely, as the current forecast track will keep the storm surge from building into the funnel-shaped Leyte Gulf, which comes to a point in Tacloban, population 221,000, the capital of the province of Leyte. Much of Tacloban is at elevations less than ten feet, and storm surge forecasts made earlier today by the Philippines' Project NOAH were calling for a storm tide (the combined height of the surge plus the tide) of 15' (4.5 meters) in Tacloban. With Haiyan now expected to push the waters out of Leyte Gulf upon approach, the storm tide will likely not get that high in Tacloban. The greatest storm tide will occur to the east of Tacloban on the east shore of Samar Island, where a massive 17' (5.3 meter) storm tide was predicted by Project NOAH. Many locations in the Central Philippines are expected to see storm tides in excess of 8' (2.5 meters), after Haiyan crosses Leyte and Samar Islands. To give you some idea of the size and power of Haiyan, a storm tide of 4.5' (1.4 meters) is predicted in the capital of Manila, even though the typhoon is expected to pass 180 miles to the south of the city. An experimental storm surge forecast from the European Commission's Joint Research Centre HyFlux2 model calls for a peak storm surge of 7.5 feet (2.3 meters) from Haiyan. This model has not been verified for the Philippines, and I expect the storm surges from a 190 mph Category 5 typhoon will be more in line with what Project NOAH is predicting. Here are the storm tide forecasts, which are updated every six hours on the the Philippines' Project NOAH website:




Figure 4. Elevation map of Leyte Island (left) and Samar Island (top) in the Philippines. Much of the capital of Leyte, Tacloban, is at an elevation less than 4 meters (13'), red to dark red colors. The predicted path of Haiyan’s eye in the 15 UTC November 7, 2013 Joint Typhoon Warning Center advisory is shown. Image credit: Globalwarmingart.com.

Haiyan the fifth named storm to hit the Philippines in 2013
Haiyan will be the fourth typhoon and fifth named storm to hit the Philippines this year. The others were:

Tropical Storm Rumbia, which hit the island of Samar on June 29 as a tropical storm, killing six.
Typhoon Nari, which hit Luzon on October 11 as a Category 3 typhoon with 115 mph winds, killing five.
Typhoon Utor, which hit Luzon on August 12 as a Category 4 typhoon with 140 mph winds, killing fourteen and causing $25 million in damage.
Typhoon Krosa, which hit northern Luzon on October 31 as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds, killing five and doing $5 million in damage.

Links
Storm Chaser James Reynolds on Twitter, from Tacloban, Leyte.
Storm Chaser Jim Edds on Twitter, from Tacloban, Leyte.
Webcam in Malay, Philippines
Webcam in Boracay, Philippines

Jeff Masters

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754. GatorWX
4:16 AM GMT on November 08, 2013
*repost

Take a look at that two satellites and you'll see what I was getting at...

The Philippines are indeed hit very very often. The size, strength and magnitude of this one will likely exceed that of any other landfalling system they've had, at least for some time. I don't think Bopha or Megi ever had an appearance quite like this. These islands are small and likely won't induce the amount of weakening as Luzon would. Wind, surge and rainfall will be extreme. Although the death toll could be very high or we will be surprised and they'll weather this thing out fairly well, the potential is certainly there for this being an absolute catastrophe. I doubt it will or even could rival some of the Indian Ocean cyclones due to the geography, but as far as the Philippines go, this is likely to be storm they're talking about and comparing to for a very long time.

Bopha landfall:



Haiyan:

Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2386
753. sidewind69
11:38 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Incredible cloud tops.. peircing the sphear
almost sucking space cold
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752. VR46L
11:24 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
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751. Caimito
11:22 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Quoting 597. barbamz:


Looks like as you will be spared of the worst in Southern Leyte :)
This animation is delayed for -hmm- half an hour, or so? So the eye should already be quite to your north.

The track has once again moved slightly southwards. Between Dulag & Abuyog should be where it (centre) makes real landfall in an hour or so. So it will track at 60km from us. The wind is changing to SW and getting stronger
Member Since: April 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
750. Speeky
11:16 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Here's a list of storms which had winds over 190MPH and their pressures. Just so we can get an idea of what we are dealing with.

1. Nancy (1961) - 215 MPH - 882mbar
2. Violet (1961) - 205 MPH - 895 mbar
3. Ida (1958) - 200 MPH (allegedly 215) - 877 mbar
4. Kit (1966) - 195 MPH - 880 mbar
4. Joan (1959) - 195 MPH - 885 mbar
4. Haiyan (2013) - 195 MPH - 895 mbar
4. Sally (1964) - 195 MPH - 895 mbar
4. Opal (1964) - 195 MPH - 900 mbar

Please take note that most of these storms occurred before 1970. I really think that the pressure for Haiyan is way too high for wind speed it has. Even based on the Dvorvak technique its too high. For winds of 195 it should have a pressure of 858 not 895. I know 858 is sounds crazy, which is why I complied all the actual recordings above into an average. That average dis including Haiyan is:

215 - 882 mbar
205 - 895 mbar
200 - 877 mbar
195 - 891 mbar

overall 200+ - 880 mbar
overall 195 - 891 mbar

Also lets add 190 storms from the western pacific. There's 6 from the western pacific.

1. Tip (1979) - 190 MPH - 870 mbar
2. Vanessa (1984) - 190 MPH - 880 mbar
3. Vera (1959) - 190 MPH - 895 mbar
4. Grace (1958) - 190 MPH - 905 mbar
5. Sarah (1959) - 190 MPH - 905 mbar
6. Louise (1964) - 190 MPH - 915 mbar

*Notice that the storms after 1970 have a lower pressure than storms before 1970.

The average for 190 MPH storms is: 894.8

Just for kicks lets get the average for storms before and after 1970 and compare (this will include 190 MPH storms)

before 1970 - 893 mbar
after 1970 - 882 mbar (875 mbar not counting Haiyan)

It seems rather obvious to me that storms after 1970 are have lower pressure reading than storms before 1970. In this case, why does Haiyan have such a high pressure!?

***I may have missed some storms, please let me know if I have!***
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749. Unfriendly
11:04 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
I mean... borocay isn't even under the edges of the CDO yet. Though it'll be getting slammed later today.
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748. Chucktown
11:02 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Quoting 745. Torito:



... I dont understand philippenisan language.... or however you would say it....


Then don't watch. I don't care.
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747. Torito
11:00 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Why is there a guy swimming or something there?


Idiot. :/


Link
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746. Doss2k
11:00 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Things don't look so bad on that Boracay webcam
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745. Torito
10:59 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Quoting 730. Chucktown:
Found a live feed of one of the morning newscasts. Don't forget, its 6:55 AM Friday over there right now. I believe this is from Manila.

Link



... I dont understand philippenisan language.... or however you would say it....
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744. Patrap
10:59 PM GMT on November 07, 2013

2 km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve
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743. medicroc
10:59 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Quoting 737. medicroc:

This one still active
http://www.earthcam.com/world/philippines/boracay /

Looks like a few people came down to the beach to watch the excitement
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742. AussieStorm
10:59 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


they follow JMA alternative 10 min average scale instead of giving 150 knots... they might as well compare it with other agencies.


yeah, that's what I mean.
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741. jascott1967
10:59 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Star Wars nerds are like Ninja's. You never know when or where they'll show up.
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740. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
10:58 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
739. Ameister12
10:58 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Quoting 729. weatherboy1251:
What is that "second eye", is it an echo?

Could be. Latest Microwave image shows what possibly could be the beginning of an EWRC.
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738. Torito
10:58 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Waves are picking up.

Link
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737. medicroc
10:58 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Quoting 726. unknowncomic:
Boracay Beach webcam totally dark. Says it is/was number 7 of top ten beaches in the world.

This one still active
http://www.earthcam.com/world/philippines/boracay /
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736. FIVEPOINTO
10:57 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
We have one of the Strongest storms of the season here on Earth and could get hit simultaneously buy the strongest solar storm from AR1890 which is facing directly towards earth...the poles are lighting up as we speak.
Member Since: February 15, 2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 19
735. Patrap
10:57 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Quoting 729. weatherboy1251:
What is that "second eye", is it an echo?


I believe so, as the Night IR Sensor tracks the Storms Center along, and that artifact,as your nicely stated is a Negative "echo".

We have seen it before, as late as the last Typhoon .
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734. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:56 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Quoting 708. AussieStorm:

As expected. Under forecasting again. How come we can see it's much stronger and they can't?


they follow JMA alternative 10 min average scale instead of giving 150 knots... they might as well compare it with other agencies.
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733. AussieStorm
10:56 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Quoting Patrap:
Jim Edds ‏@ExtremeStorms 47min ago

981.4 mb at 6:05am, going out to shoot. Be back in a bit.
Reply Retweet


Lets hope he comes back soon and hasn't been blown away.


Another video from Tacloban City.
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732. Kumo
10:56 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Quoting 726. unknowncomic:
Boracay Beach webcam totally dark. Says it is/was number 7 of top ten beaches in the world.


This one is still active.

Link
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731. Torito
10:56 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Quoting 729. weatherboy1251:
What is that "second eye", is it an echo?



Just a glitched up reflection. It happens often in strong storms.
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730. Chucktown
10:56 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Found a live feed of one of the morning newscasts. Don't forget, its 6:55 AM Friday over there right now. I believe this is from Manila.

Link
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729. weatherboy1251
10:54 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Quoting 724. Patrap:
What is that "second eye", is it an echo?
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728. Patrap
10:54 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Jim Edds ‏@ExtremeStorms 47min ago

981.4 mb at 6:05am, going out to shoot. Be back in a bit.
Reply Retweet
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727. pottery
10:53 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Quoting Torito:



save that image. :)

...another radar bites the dust.
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726. unknowncomic
10:53 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Boracay Beach webcam totally dark. Says it is/was number 7 of top ten beaches in the world.
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725. CybrTeddy
10:52 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
I'm going to assume that the barometers have all been destroyed as I haven't seen an accurate pressure reading in a while.
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724. Patrap
10:51 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
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723. FunnelVortex
10:50 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Quoting 720. FIVEPOINTO:
we could have two record storms in a short time here...when will they start naming Solar storms...just saying


You are talking about two totally separate things here.
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722. Torito
10:49 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Quoting 714. AussieStorm:



save that image. :)
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721. opal92nwf
10:49 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Here we go: first forecast getting down in the 30's here in the FL Panhandle!

Link

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720. FIVEPOINTO
10:49 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
we could have two record storms in a short time here...when will they start naming Solar storms...just saying
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719. CybrTeddy
10:48 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Quoting 713. Articuno:


Umm.. uhh

okay???

I think your in the wrong blog dude.


I'm a huge Star Wars fan, and I'm hyped about Episode VII, but I really don't care about Star Wars right now in the face of a horrendous Super Typhoon making landfall.
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718. pottery
10:48 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Quoting Patrap:
Oooofffph'


Glory be !
That's a big hole.
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717. Ryan1000
10:48 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Quoting 708. AussieStorm:

As expected. Under forecasting again. How come we can see it's much stronger and they can't?

Are they using 10-minute winds instead of 1-minute winds?
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716. Chucktown
10:48 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
This dude is live for one of the local Philippine TV stations. I'm looking for a live feed, but here is his twitter account for now.

Link
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715. FunnelVortex
10:47 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Quoting 706. hurricanes2018:

By: Benjamin Hart
It seems the the rumors were true after all! StarWars.com has official announced the release date for Star Wars Episode VII, which will be December 18th, 2015! The official press release is as follows:
"With pre-production in full-swing, a confirmed release date of December 18, 2015, has been set for Lucasfilm's highly anticipated Star Wars: Episode VII.
"We're very excited to share the official 2015 release date for Star Wars: Episode VII, where it will not only anchor the popular holiday filmgoing season but also ensure our extraordinary filmmaking team has the time needed to deliver a sensational picture," said Alan Horn, chairman of The Walt Disney Studios."
Well that settles it folks, Star Wars fans are going to have a very merry Christmas in 2015!

BIG NEWS HERE!!!


We can talk about the new (and most likely crappy) Star Wars movie sometime else. We have a deadly typhoon wreaking havoc right now.
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714. AussieStorm
10:47 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
713. Articuno
10:47 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Quoting 706. hurricanes2018:

By: Benjamin Hart
It seems the the rumors were true after all! StarWars.com has official announced the release date for Star Wars Episode VII, which will be December 18th, 2015! The official press release is as follows:
"With pre-production in full-swing, a confirmed release date of December 18, 2015, has been set for Lucasfilm's highly anticipated Star Wars: Episode VII.
"We're very excited to share the official 2015 release date for Star Wars: Episode VII, where it will not only anchor the popular holiday filmgoing season but also ensure our extraordinary filmmaking team has the time needed to deliver a sensational picture," said Alan Horn, chairman of The Walt Disney Studios."
Well that settles it folks, Star Wars fans are going to have a very merry Christmas in 2015!

BIG NEWS HERE!!!


Umm.. uhh

okay???

I think your in the wrong blog dude.
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712. Ameister12
10:47 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Mactan, Cebu radar site has a nice view of Haiyan, but don't expect it to be up for much longer.
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711. medicroc
10:47 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Quoting 702. AussieStorm:
It's frightening when evac centres, hospitals and command posts are located so very close to the Leyte Gulf.





Street level, Tacloban, Leyte. (Video)

Impressed by the lunatic on the motorcycle
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710. Civicane49
10:46 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
709. Torito
10:46 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Quoting 706. hurricanes2018:

By: Benjamin Hart
It seems the the rumors were true after all! StarWars.com has official announced the release date for Star Wars Episode VII, which will be December 18th, 2015! The official press release is as follows:
"With pre-production in full-swing, a confirmed release date of December 18, 2015, has been set for Lucasfilm's highly anticipated Star Wars: Episode VII.
"We're very excited to share the official 2015 release date for Star Wars: Episode VII, where it will not only anchor the popular holiday filmgoing season but also ensure our extraordinary filmmaking team has the time needed to deliver a sensational picture," said Alan Horn, chairman of The Walt Disney Studios."
Well that settles it folks, Star Wars fans are going to have a very merry Christmas in 2015!

BIG NEWS HERE!!!



???????
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
708. AussieStorm
10:46 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
from PAGASA twitter

The eye of Typhoon “YOLANDA” was located at 35 km west of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (10.9°N, 125.4°E) with maximum sustained winds of 235 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 275 km/h.

As expected. Under forecasting again. How come we can see it's much stronger and they can't?
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707. Patrap
10:46 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Oooofffph'

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
705. Civicane49
10:44 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
Quoting 695. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Amazing the force of mother nature, aye Civic? This may very well be one of the strongest storms ever to make landfall. Up there with Andrew, Camille, Mitch, Cyclone Bopha, Cyclone Nargis, 1780 Great Hurricane, and 1900 Galveston Hurricane. Hey do they retire Typhoons because if they do this one is on that list?


Names in the western Pacific do get retired also if they caused significant damage and deaths.
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704. Patrap
10:44 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
..were gonna need a bigger graph scale


Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone MSLP and Maximum Winds
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.