Tropical Storm Sonia Hits Mexico; Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Likely Over

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on November 04, 2013

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In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Sonia, the eighteenth named storm of the 2013 Eastern Pacific hurricane season, made landfall near midnight EST on Sunday near El Dorado, Mexico, as a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches are expected in Mainland Mexico along the path of Sonia on Monday, potentially triggering flash floods and mudslides. Moisture from Sonia is being drawn to the northeast, where it will contribute to rains over the Central U.S. later in the week. There are currently no threat areas to discuss in the Eastern Pacific, and the GFS and European models are not predicting development of anything over the coming seven days. The last named storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season typically forms on November 5, so there is a good chance that Sonia will be the last storm of the year. There were no November Eastern Pacific named storms in 2012, but 2011 featured the 2nd strongest storm of the entire Eastern Pacific hurricane season in November, Category 4 Hurricane Kenneth (145 mph winds.)


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Sonia, taken at 18:10 UTC on November 3, 2013. At the time, Sonia had top winds of about 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

The 2013 Eastern Pacific hurricane season in perspective
Sonia's formation brings the 2013 Eastern Pacific hurricane season numbers to 18 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Due to the lack of major hurricanes, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) has been just 51% of average so far in 2013. NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, was not far from the mark. It called for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average.

While the raw numbers show a quiet Eastern Pacific hurricane season, one bad storm--Hurricane Manuel--made the 2013 season one of the worst in Mexico's history. Manuel made landfall on September 15 near Manzanillo as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and brought devastating flooding to the coast near Acapulco. Manuel was the most expensive Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone in history, with damage estimated at $4.2 billion. The 169 people it killed made it the 7th deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record. Only three Eastern Pacific hurricanes have had their names retired--Hurricane Ismael of 1995, Hurricane Pauline of 1997, and Hurricane Kenna of 2002. Manuel is likely to become the fourth retired name on the list.

More trouble in the Western Pacific
Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific over the past month has been very high, with seven typhoons in the month of October alone. According to records at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), this would appear to be a new record for the number of typhoons in any October, breaking the previous record of six typhoons during October 1989 (thanks go to typhoon expert Mark Lander for this stat.) The latest system of concern is Tropical Storm Haiyan, which is gathering strength over the warm tropical waters east of the Philippines. Haiyan's formation brings the tally of named storms in the Western Pacific in 2013 to 28, making it the busiest season in that ocean basin since the 32 named storms of 2004. Satellite loops show that Haiyan is a large tropical storm with plenty of intense thunderstorms that are steadily growing more organized. Haiyan is expected to take advantage of warm waters and low wind shear and intensify into a major Category 4 typhoon by Thursday. Both the GFS and European models predict that Haiyan will pass through the central Philippines near 6 UTC on Friday. If this prediction holds true, Haiyan could be the most dangerous tropical cyclone to affect the Philippines this year--particularly since Tropical Depression Thirty is dumping heavy rains of up to one inch per hour over the central Philippines today, which will saturate the soil and make extreme flooding more likely late this week when Haiyan arrives.

Quiet in the Atlantic
An area of low pressure over the Central Caribbean is bringing disorganized heavy rain showers to the region. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming five days. In their 8 am EST Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 5-day formation odds of 10%.

Jeff Masters

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491. GTstormChaserCaleb
5:18 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Good afternoon everyone. Pretty cool image of that island near Pakistan, Torito and cool image SFLWeatherman and GeoffreyWPB of the waves crashing ashore Palm Beach this morning.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 6646
490. CaicosRetiredSailor
3:17 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Quoting 434. canelane23N75W:


same here!! was wondering which direction this blob was headed?? looks like no charters for a few days:(


Great to see another person posting from the Exumas! I have wonderful memories from the time I lived there (73-85). In fact, my "avatar" photo you see to the left was taken at Lee Stocking Island in 1981.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
489. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:15 PM GMT on November 05, 2013


wonder if the Montana low pressure system will be named..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43639
488. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:14 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
487. wunderkidcayman
3:14 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Quoting 460. Torito:


Morning, WKC.

Good morning

30 more days till retirement from Weather Underground
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9547
486. Torito
3:11 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
... Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until midnight CST
/11 PM MST/ tonight...
* Timing... snow continues today across northwestern
Nebraska... with the change over to snow to occur this morning
across southwest into north central Nebraska. Moderate to heavy
snow is anticipated during the morning or early afternoon
hours... otherwise snowfall is expected to be light to
occasionally moderate. Snow will taper to flurries then end from
west to east this evening.

* Snow accumulations... widespread total snow accumulations of 3
to 5 inches... locally a narrow band of higher snowfall
accumulation of 4 to 6 inches is possible from southwest to
north central Nebraska.

* Wind... easterly winds this morning will become northerly by the
afternoon. Wind speeds will generally remain less than 20
mph... so blowing and drifting snow should not be a problem.

* Impacts... brief periods of moderate to heavy snow during the
morning hours will result in restricted visibilities... to
around a mile or less. Temperatures will hover around freezing
with some melting expected... especially on roadways. The melting
on the roadways will result in slushy roads and hazardous travel
conditions.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
485. Torito
3:07 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
The battle between rain and snow:

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
484. RitaEvac
3:06 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Quoting 483. 1900hurricane:

This one is shaping up to be a bit of a disappointment if the High Resolution NAM and variants are to be believed.





With most of Sonia's mid/upper moisture having moved on, it has been replaced by very dry conditions in the subtropical jet, which should introduce cloud layer evaporation and hurt precipitation efficiency.





Also whatever does fall, most of the activity is supposed to be north of us
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
483. 1900hurricane
2:59 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Quoting 468. RitaEvac:
Picked up 4 inches of rain last week, more rain on the way in SE TX

This one is shaping up to be a bit of a disappointment if the High Resolution NAM and variants are to be believed.





With most of Sonia's mid/upper moisture having moved on, it has been replaced by very dry conditions in the subtropical jet, which should introduce cloud layer evaporation and hurt precipitation efficiency.



Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
482. Torito
2:58 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
The Atlantic will be shutdown in 360 hours, marking the end of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.

Blue= Dead
Red= Alive
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
481. hydrus
2:56 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19494
480. Torito
2:54 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Quoting 479. 1900hurricane:

That's a dissipating baroclinic low.



ssssshhhhh don't let the wishcasters know that... :P
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
479. 1900hurricane
2:53 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Quoting 467. Torito:
For the wishcasters...


TS at 336 Hours.


That's a dissipating baroclinic low.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
478. Torito
2:52 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
477. 1900hurricane
2:51 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Haiyan looking pretty good under the hood this morning.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
476. stormpetrol
2:49 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
475. Torito
2:49 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
The carrib is likely done now....

Only thing left that can support a TS now is the tropical Atlantic, and only if shear dies down enough to allow development.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
474. Torito
2:47 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Eye.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
473. stormpetrol
2:47 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
472. Torito
2:46 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
There are typhoon force winds (Dark orange or light red) evident in this system....

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
471. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:45 PM GMT on November 05, 2013

Behind as usual.


2013NOV05 133000 5.0 959.2 +5.2 90.0 5.0 5.0 4.4 MW ON OFF OFF -69.68 -81.73 UNIFRM N/A 62.0 6.87 -142.47

Tokyo ADT has T5.0 but no confidence of an eye scene in the statement.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43639
470. Tropicsweatherpr
2:45 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Quoting 469. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Behind as usual.


I say way behind.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13250
469. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:43 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Quoting 448. HadesGodWyvern:
looks like the JMA is waiting for a clear eye to call Haiyan a typhoon. 90 knots from JTWC.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35
21:00 PM JST November 5 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 10.6N 115.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.7N 109.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
Typhoon Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN (T1330)
21:00 PM JST November 5 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Near Caroline Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Haiyan (980 hPa) located at 6.9N 143.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 8.4N 137.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Caroline Islands
48 HRS: 10.6N 130.3E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 11.9N 122.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Visayas region (Philippines)

Behind as usual.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
468. RitaEvac
2:42 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Picked up 4 inches of rain last week, more rain on the way in SE TX
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
467. Torito
2:42 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
For the wishcasters...


TS at 336 Hours.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
466. washingtonian115
2:41 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Quoting 459. Torito:
Funktop shows the eye very well.

Meanwhile in the Atlantic..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15702
465. Torito
2:41 PM GMT on November 05, 2013

King Tut Spontaneously Combusted Inside His Sarcophagus-Reports
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
464. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:40 PM GMT on November 05, 2013


CMC picking up on a Somalia and Socotra (Yeman) cyclone.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43639
463. LargoFl
2:39 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Coastal Flood Advisory

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
252 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013

FLZ024-025-033-038-052200-
/O.CON.KJAX.SU.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-131106T0800Z/
/O.CON.KJAX.CF.Y.0008.131105T1200Z-131105T1700Z/
/O.CON.KJAX.RP.S.0008.000000T0000Z-131106T0800Z/
NASSAU-DUVAL-ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-
252 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS
MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY...

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED NEAR THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

* WAVES AND SURF...7 TO 9 FEET.

* TIMING...MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED NEAR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH TIDES...ST. SIMONS ISLAND 900 AM...JACKSONVILLE BEACH
851 AM... ST. AUGUSTINE BEACH 856 AM.

* IMPACTS...ROUGH SURF...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION AND MINOR FLOODING WILL OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL
CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR
MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE SANDBAR AND IN THE
VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS...JETTIES AND PIERS. RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE- THREATENING. LARGE BREAKERS CAN KNOCK YOU
DOWN AND MAKE YOU SUSCEPTIBLE TO RIP CURRENTS. STAY OUT OF THE
WATER UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

&&

$$

PP
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33211
462. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:38 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
You can see it almost completely formed right there. :)




JMA is probably looking at their satellite.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43639
461. LargoFl
2:37 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING.

* COASTAL FLOODING...BEACH REPORTS INDICATE SOME DUNE EROSION HAS
OCCURRED ALONG THE BEACHES SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET ALONG WITH
DUNE BREACHES NEAR WAVELAND BEACH IN SAINT LUCIE COUNTY. THE
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL ADD ABOUT A FOOT OF WATER LEVEL TO
AN ALREADY LONG DURATION HIGH SURF EVENT.

* WAVES AND SURF...STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE LARGE WIND DRIVEN WAVES AND SWELL. BREAKING SURF AT
THE BEACHES WILL REACH DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 5 TO 7 FEET
TODAY...AND 4 TO 5 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SURF WITH A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS.

* TIMING...THE HIGHEST WAVES AND SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TODAY
DURING THE HIGH TIDES AROUND 8 AM AND 8 PM...THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...ADDITIONAL EROSION WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW HIGH
TIDE CYCLES. THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY MAJOR BEACH EROSION...ALLOWING WATER TO RUN UP TO THE
DUNES AND LEAD TO DUNE BREACHES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST. THESE IMPACTS WILL BE MAGNIFIED DURING HIGH TIDE
AND AT ALREADY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
RISING WATER...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33211
460. Torito
2:35 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Quoting 458. wunderkidcayman:
Max winds 45mph

Rain 2-4in

Lots of lightening

Those were our headlines for the early morning


Morning, WKC.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
459. Torito
2:35 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Funktop shows the eye very well.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
458. wunderkidcayman
2:34 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Max winds 45mph

Rain 2-4in

Lots of lightening

Those were our headlines for the early morning
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9547
457. barbamz
2:32 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Quoting 451. SFLWeatherman:
Howling winds on Palm Beach today. Wind gusts to 35mph possible today and tonight.


Wow, really bad weather. Here some live streaming webcams:

Live from Fort Lauderdale Beach Place

Very impressive: Dania Beach, FL.


Screenshot.

Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4997
456. LargoFl
2:32 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
ST. PETERSBURG --
Windy conditions will dominate the Bay area weather Tuesday.

According to Bay News 9 Meteorologist Juli Marquez, wind gusts as high as 25 mph are expected today with some slight rain chances across the area.

"The winds will increase this afternoon," Marquez said. "Northeast winds are bringing clouds and some isolated showers to Tampa Bay today. The higher rain chances are on the other side of the state."

Temperatures will rise to the low to mid 80s today. Conditions will be partly cloudy and remain breezy overnight.

It will be slightly warmer and not as breezy the rest of the week.

The rain chances will tick upwards by Thursday.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33211
455. Torito
2:32 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
454. Saltydogbwi1
2:31 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Quoting 439. GrandCaymanMed:
Branches down from last night's severe storms. Parking lots flooded too.


2.5-4.5 inches of rain last night on various weather gauges throughout the island. Top winds recorded 44mph that I have seen so far.
Member Since: October 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 330
453. Torito
2:31 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Quoting 448. HadesGodWyvern:
looks like the JMA is waiting for a clear eye to call Haiyan a typhoon. 90 knots from JTWC.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35
21:00 PM JST November 5 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 10.6N 115.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.7N 109.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
Typhoon Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN (T1330)
21:00 PM JST November 5 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Near Caroline Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Haiyan (980 hPa) located at 6.9N 143.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 8.4N 137.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Caroline Islands
48 HRS: 10.6N 130.3E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 11.9N 122.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Visayas region (Philippines)


You can see it almost completely formed right there. :)

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
452. kmanislander
2:30 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Quoting 439. GrandCaymanMed:
Branches down from last night's severe storms. Parking lots flooded too.


Good morning.

It was a wild night for sure, especially around 1 AM.

Winds gusted to 28 MPH in South Sound and 2.6 inches of rain fell after midnight alone. We probably got another inch or more between 10 and 12 but I have not had time to review all of the data from my weather station. Even found a turtle swimming in my pool this morning LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
451. SFLWeatherman
2:28 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Howling winds on Palm Beach today. Wind gusts to 35mph possible today and tonight.
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4207
450. barbamz
2:28 PM GMT on November 05, 2013

Haiyan wrapping up. Click to enlarge.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4997
449. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:28 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
30W..

India Meteorological Department
17:30 PM IST November 5 2013
===================================

A low pressure area may emerge over Andaman sea around November 9th and may intensify further
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43639
448. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:27 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
looks like the JMA is waiting for a clear eye to call Haiyan a typhoon. 90 knots from JTWC.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35
21:00 PM JST November 5 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 10.6N 115.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.7N 109.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
Typhoon Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN (T1330)
21:00 PM JST November 5 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Near Caroline Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Haiyan (980 hPa) located at 6.9N 143.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 8.4N 137.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Caroline Islands
48 HRS: 10.6N 130.3E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 11.9N 122.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Visayas region (Philippines)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43639
447. Sfloridacat5
2:27 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Quoting 444. Patrap:
Satellites reveal new views of Pakistan's 'Earthquake Island'
Becky Oskin LiveScience
Oct. 1, 2013 at 8:45 PM ET



An image from the Pleiades satellite shows a small island of mud and rock created by the huge earthquake that hit southwest Pakistan. The island is about 60 to 70 feet (18 to 21 meters) high and more than 500 feet (150 meters) in diameter. It sits about 650 feet from the coast.

Earth performed the ultimate magic trick last week, making an island appear out of nowhere. The new island is a remarkable side effect of a deadly Sept. 24 earthquake in Pakistan that killed more than 500 people.



Satellite images snapped a few days after the earthquake-triggered island emerged offshore, near the town of Gwadar, reveal that the strange structure is round and relatively flat, with cracks and fissures like a child's dried-up mud pie.

The French Pleiades satellite mapped the muddy hill's dimensions, which measure 576.4 feet (175.7 meters) long by 524.9 feet (160 m) wide. Aerial photos from Pakistan's National Institute of Oceanography suggest the gray-colored mound is about 60 to 70 feet (18 to 21 meters) high. [Gallery: Amazing Images of Pakistan's Earthquake Island]

Gwadar is about 230 miles (380 kilometers) from the earthquake's epicenter. The magnitude-7.7 earthquake was probably centered on the Chaman Fault, Shuhab Khan, a geoscientist at the University of Houston told LiveScience last week.

Geologists think the new island, named Zalzala Koh, is made of erupted mud, spewed from the seafloor when either trapped gases escaped or subsurface water was violently expelled.


On Sept. 26, the Advanced Land Imager on NASA's Earth Observing-1 satellite captured an image of Pakistan's new island.


Pakistan National Institute of Oceanography via NASA
An aerial photo from Pakistan's National Institute of Oceanography suggests the gray-colored mound is about 60 to 70 feet (15 to 20 meters) tall. The surface is covered in sea creatures such as dead fish and is a mixture of mud, sand and rock. It is solid enough for people to walk on. Boats can be seen surrounding the island


The new island could be the result of a mud volcano. Mud volcanoes form when hot water underground mixes with sediments and gases such as methane and carbon dioxide. If the noxious slurry finds a release valve, such as a crack opened by earthquake shaking, a mud volcano erupts, according to James Hein, a senior scientist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Santa Cruz, Calif. Geologists from the Pakistan Navy report that Zalzala Koh is releasing flammable gas. But seafloor sediments commonly hold methane-producing bacteria, so the possible methane coming from the island isn't a clincher to its identity.

Shaking from the powerful Sept. 24 earthquake could have also loosened the seafloor sediments offshore of Pakistan, jiggling them like jelly. The great rivers coming down from the Himalayas dump tons of water-saturated sediment into the Arabian Sea every year. The new island could be a gigantic example of a liquefaction blow, when seismic shaking makes saturated sediments act like liquid, and trapped water suddenly escapes, Michael Manga, a geophysicist at the University of California, Berkeley, told LiveScience.

Similar islands have appeared offshore of Pakistan after strong earthquakes in the region in 2001 and 1945. If the earlier examples hold, the soft mud island won't last a year, disappearing under the erosive power of the pounding of waves from monsoon storms.



Geologic forces such as this put everything into perspective. Man has only been on the Earth for a blink of an eye in Earth's Geologic history.
Erosional forces wear things down. Volcanic forces and deposition build things back up.

This is Earth doing her thing without man's influence.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4729
446. barbamz
2:23 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
NASA Earthobservatory, Image of the day:



Hybrid Eclipse Shades Africa
November 5, 2013
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4997
445. Sfloridacat5
2:21 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Quoting 428. SFLWeatherman:
Waves now splashing up over the wall on Palm Beach Island.
A gale warning is in effect for the coastal waters of S FL


Those million dollar+ homes might get a little wet. I believe Trump has a house in there some where.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4729
444. Patrap
2:18 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Satellites reveal new views of Pakistan's 'Earthquake Island'
Becky Oskin LiveScience
Oct. 1, 2013 at 8:45 PM ET



An image from the Pleiades satellite shows a small island of mud and rock created by the huge earthquake that hit southwest Pakistan. The island is about 60 to 70 feet (18 to 21 meters) high and more than 500 feet (150 meters) in diameter. It sits about 650 feet from the coast.

Earth performed the ultimate magic trick last week, making an island appear out of nowhere. The new island is a remarkable side effect of a deadly Sept. 24 earthquake in Pakistan that killed more than 500 people.



Satellite images snapped a few days after the earthquake-triggered island emerged offshore, near the town of Gwadar, reveal that the strange structure is round and relatively flat, with cracks and fissures like a child's dried-up mud pie.

The French Pleiades satellite mapped the muddy hill's dimensions, which measure 576.4 feet (175.7 meters) long by 524.9 feet (160 m) wide. Aerial photos from Pakistan's National Institute of Oceanography suggest the gray-colored mound is about 60 to 70 feet (18 to 21 meters) high. [Gallery: Amazing Images of Pakistan's Earthquake Island]

Gwadar is about 230 miles (380 kilometers) from the earthquake's epicenter. The magnitude-7.7 earthquake was probably centered on the Chaman Fault, Shuhab Khan, a geoscientist at the University of Houston told LiveScience last week.

Geologists think the new island, named Zalzala Koh, is made of erupted mud, spewed from the seafloor when either trapped gases escaped or subsurface water was violently expelled.


On Sept. 26, the Advanced Land Imager on NASA's Earth Observing-1 satellite captured an image of Pakistan's new island.


Pakistan National Institute of Oceanography via NASA
An aerial photo from Pakistan's National Institute of Oceanography suggests the gray-colored mound is about 60 to 70 feet (15 to 20 meters) tall. The surface is covered in sea creatures such as dead fish and is a mixture of mud, sand and rock. It is solid enough for people to walk on. Boats can be seen surrounding the island


The new island could be the result of a mud volcano. Mud volcanoes form when hot water underground mixes with sediments and gases such as methane and carbon dioxide. If the noxious slurry finds a release valve, such as a crack opened by earthquake shaking, a mud volcano erupts, according to James Hein, a senior scientist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Santa Cruz, Calif. Geologists from the Pakistan Navy report that Zalzala Koh is releasing flammable gas. But seafloor sediments commonly hold methane-producing bacteria, so the possible methane coming from the island isn't a clincher to its identity.

Shaking from the powerful Sept. 24 earthquake could have also loosened the seafloor sediments offshore of Pakistan, jiggling them like jelly. The great rivers coming down from the Himalayas dump tons of water-saturated sediment into the Arabian Sea every year. The new island could be a gigantic example of a liquefaction blow, when seismic shaking makes saturated sediments act like liquid, and trapped water suddenly escapes, Michael Manga, a geophysicist at the University of California, Berkeley, told LiveScience.

Similar islands have appeared offshore of Pakistan after strong earthquakes in the region in 2001 and 1945. If the earlier examples hold, the soft mud island won't last a year, disappearing under the erosive power of the pounding of waves from monsoon storms.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125418
443. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:15 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52096
442. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:15 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52096
441. Skyepony (Mod)
2:06 PM GMT on November 05, 2013
TRMM caught 30W yesterday. Some very heavy rain in there.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36034

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.