Atlantic November Hurricane Outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on November 01, 2013

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The tropical Atlantic is quiet, with no threat areas to discuss, and no reliable models predicting development of a tropical cyclone during the coming five days. So, are we all done for 2013? Or will this unusually quiet hurricane season spawn a Tropical Storm Melissa? The large-scale circulation pattern over the first half of November favors upward-moving air and an increased chance of tropical storm development over the Atlantic, due to the current positioning of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. By mid-November, this pattern will favor sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, making a late-November tropical storm an unlikely proposition. Wind shear has risen to high levels prohibitive for tropical storm formation over the Gulf of Mexico and the waters near the Bahama Islands, and is expected to remain very high through mid-November, according to the latest run of the GFS model. However, wind shear over the Caribbean is likely to be average to below average for the next two weeks, making tropical storm formation possible there. The oceans are certainly warm enough to support development, with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Caribbean 0.2°C (0.37°F) above average, and well above the 26°C (79°F) threshold typically needed to support tropical storm formation (Figure 1.) Dry air--which has dominated the tropical Atlantic during the 2013 hurricane season--will continue to make its presence felt over the Caribbean during portions of the coming two weeks, though, reducing the odds of development. The African Monsoon is quiet this time of year, and we no longer have African waves coming off the coast of Africa that can act as the seeds for formation of a tropical storm in the Caribbean. If we do get a tropical storm, it will probably be in the Western Caribbean, where the tail end of a cold front lingers long enough over warm waters to generate some heavy thunderstorms and acquire a spin. A cold front capable of triggering such a disturbance will arrive over the Western Caribbean November 8 - 9, but the GFS and ECMWF models are not suggesting any development from this front. Taking all these factors into account, I predict that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 is over, with just a 20% chance of another named storm this season.


Figure 1. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic on November 1, 2013. The black line marks the 26°C (79°F) isotherm, which is the boundary where tropical storm formation can typically occur. A large portion of the Atlantic is still capable of supporting tropical storm formation, but the Gulf of Mexico is getting marginal.

Climatology of November Atlantic tropical cyclones
Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, eleven of the eighteen years (61%) have seen one or more Atlantic named storms form after November 1, for a total of sixteen November/December storms:

2011: Tropical Storm Sean on November 8
2009: Hurricane Ida on November 4
2008: Hurricane Paloma on November 6
2007: Tropical Storm Olga on December 11
2005: the "Greek" storms Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta
2004: Tropical Storm Otto on November 29
2003: Odette and Peter in December
2001: Hurricane Noel on November 5 and Hurricane Olga on November 24
1999: Hurricane Lenny on November 14
1998: Hurricane Nicole on November 24
1996: Hurricane Marco on November 19

Only three of these storms (19%) caused loss of life: Hurricane Ida of 2009, which killed one boater on the Mississippi River; Tropical Storm Odette of 2007, whose floods killed eight people in the Dominican Republic; and Hurricane Lenny of 1999, which killed fifteen people in the Lesser Antilles. "Wrong-way Lenny" was both the deadliest and the strongest November hurricane on record (Category 4, 155 mph winds). There have been only seven major Category 3 or stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic after November 1. Part of the reason for the relatively low loss of life for November storms is that they tend to form from extratropical low pressure systems that get cut off from the jet stream and linger over the warm waters of the subtropical Atlantic. These type of systems typically get their start in the middle Atlantic, far from land, and end up recurving northeastwards out to sea. The most recent November named storm, Tropical Storm Sean of 2011, was an example of this type of storm. However, as I noted in the wake of Hurricane Tomas of November 2010 in my blog post, Deadly late-season Atlantic hurricanes growing more frequent, "It used to be that late-season hurricanes were a relative rarity--in the 140-year period from 1851 - 1990, only 30 hurricanes existed in the Atlantic on or after November 1, an average of one late-season hurricane every five years. Only four major Category 3 or stronger late-season hurricanes occurred in those 140 years, and only three Caribbean hurricanes. But in the past twenty years, late-season hurricanes have become 3.5 times more frequent--there have been fifteen late-season hurricanes, and five of those occurred in the Caribbean. Three of these were major hurricanes, and were the three strongest late-season hurricanes on record". Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is an "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". The recent increase in powerful and deadly November hurricanes would seem to support this conclusion.


Figure 2. The strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic in November, Hurricane Lenny, takes aim at the Lesser Antilles on November 17, 1999. Image credit: NOAA.

Typhoon Krosa takes aim at China
Category 2 Typhoon Krosa is headed towards China's Hainan Island after battering the northern end of Luzon, the main Philippines Island, on Thursday. Krosa hit extreme northeast Luzon near 06 UTC (2 am EDT) on October 31, as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. No injuries or major damage have been reported so far from the storm. Satellite loops show an impressive system with a large eye and plenty of intense thunderstorms. The typhoon will slowly weaken over the weekend as it encounters higher wind shear and cooler waters, before brushing China's Hainan Island as a tropical storm on Sunday.

The GFS and European models predict that the Philippines will see a new tropical storm or typhoon hit the islands on Friday, November 8.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Krosa taken at 05:05 UTC on November 1, 2013. At the time, Krosa was a Category 1 storm with winds of 85 mph. Image credit: NASA.

TD 18-E in Eastern Pacific will bring heavy rains to Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression 18-E has spun up south of Baja, Mexico. Satellite loops show that the depression is poorly organized, but has plenty of intense thunderstorms. Heavy rains from TD 18-E will begin affecting the southern Baja Peninsula and portions of Mainland Mexico to its east on Sunday. The 06Z Friday run of the HWRF model predicted that Mainland Mexico near Manzanillo could see 4 - 8 inches of rain from the system. Moisture from the storm will spread northeastwards into Southwest Texas by Tuesday.

New "Tipping Points" episode, "Arctic Permafrost Peril", airs Saturday at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT
“Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that began last Saturday on The Weather Channel, airs for the third time on Saturday night, November 2, at 9 pm EDT. The new episode, "Arctic Permafrost Peril", goes on an expedition across Alaska to the North Pole to explore the ticking time bomb of the permafrost melt and the release of tons of carbon dioxide and methane. The series is hosted by polar explorer and climate journalist Bernice Notenboom, the first woman to perform the remarkable triple feat of climbing Mt. Everest and walking to the North and South Poles. In each episode, Notenboom heads off to a far corner of the world to find scientists in the field undertaking vital climate research to try to understand how the climate system is changing and how long we have to make significant changes before we reach a tipping point--a point of no return when our climate system will be changed irreversibly.


Figure 4. "Tipping Points" host Bernice Notenboom watches as scientists take permafrost measurements near the Alaska Pipeline.

I'll have a new post by Monday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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1161. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1156. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I wonder how strong winds have to be to do this:

ef3 or greater
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting 1157. Astrometeor:


I'd say above 50 mph, if I had to take a concrete stab at it.

:-)



I see what you did there.
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1159. barbamz
With this short but hilarious and amazing little glimpse a good night and smooth start into the new week!


Published, Oct. 28, 2013
The Nautilus team spotted this fast Neon Flying Squid woosh past Argus Cam on their dive to Montserrat.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 64 Comments: 6724
Quoting 1153. Tazmanian:



you may need too wait tell 2015 if we get a EL nino for 2014 season

I highly doubt that it will be less active than 2013, whatever the El nino/neutral/la nina situation is.

We're also most likely going to have a major
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Quoting 1156. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I wonder how strong winds have to be to do this:



I'd say above 50 mph, if I had to take a concrete stab at it.

:-)
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Quoting 1135. Ameister12:
For those who are interested in historic tornadoes, here's a fantastic blog I stumbled across a couple days ago:
http://stormstalker.wordpress.com/

The guy writes long, descriptive, and very fascinating blogs about some of the most violent and historical tornadoes and tornado outbreaks of all time, such as the 1925 Tri-State tornado, The 1965 Palm Sunday Outbreak, and the 2011 Joplin tornado, just to name a few.

I would highly recommend checking it out, if you have the time.

I wonder how strong winds have to be to do this:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
1155. txjac
Quoting 1152. PensacolaDoug:




I'm pulling for Feb 1899 re-visiting.


And here is what would be happening weather-wise

February 1899: The Worst Cold Snap in North American History

Link

Jo
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Quoting 1153. Tazmanian:



you may need too wait tell 2015 if we get a EL nino for 2014 season


But, then EPac will be interesting! Let's take this one season at a time, everyone.
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Quoting 1149. opal92nwf:

I'm so ready for 2014...



you may need too wait tell 2015 if we get a EL nino for 2014 season
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Quoting 1149. opal92nwf:

I'm so ready for 2014...




I'm pulling for Feb 1899 re-visiting.
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Been busy uploading pictures all day..
:)

10 pictures
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1150. flsky
Quoting 1137. Bluestorm5:


My mom's family still own the old plantation they have since 1700s and ton of acres of land around Moncks Corner as well so I got lot of land to observe the eclipse there without being annoyed by people. My aunt got a home on land I can stay at during the eclipse.

Btw, I'm considering minoring astronomy or at least take few classes. UNCA got a observation being built on top of this mountain campus is located on. It should be open early 2014 during winter :) The cool thing is that the roof opens, I think.

Link

Link

Might check an English class - just sayin....
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Quoting 1066. Tazmanian:
some of you guys need too stop wishcasting its not going too form the wind shear is UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT and it looks like it will stay that way the on the wind shear may it may look Favorable but wish way is the wind shear pointing thats right its pointing at UNFAVORABLE FOR any kind of DEVELOPMENT

I'm so ready for 2014...
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Quoting 1141. eyewallblues:
Not so fast. Still predicting 4 - 2 - 1 for the period Nov 8 through DEC. 12. I have designated this the New Primary Atlantic Hurricane Season. I base this on absolutely nothing. However, I am usually right. Be prepared.



LOL you be vary vary wrong with that
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Quoting 1146. barbamz:


Ahh, football. That explains it all, lol. Have fun, and may your favorite team win!


Thanks, and we (Titans) did in fact just win, 28-21.


4 storms, not bad. Well, I don't think Krosa counts anymore...
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1146. barbamz
Quoting 1145. Astrometeor:


That, and it's Sunday. American football games currently on. I'm watching the Tennessee Titans take on the St. Louis Rams.


Ahh, football. That explains it all, lol. And I thought everybody was outdoors enjoying some great weather.
Have fun, Astro, and may your favorite team win!


Webcam Riverview FL.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 64 Comments: 6724
Quoting 1143. barbamz:

Wow, nearly no convection to speak of in the whole US besides Texas (Texas!)? No wonder that it's very quiet today on our blog.


That, and it's Sunday. American football games currently on. I'm watching the Tennessee Titans take on the St. Louis Rams.
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Quoting 1141. eyewallblues:
Not so fast. Still predicting 4 - 2 - 1 for the period Nov 8 through DEC. 12. I have designated this the New Primary Atlantic Hurricane Season. I base this on absolutely nothing. However, I am usually right. Be prepared.
Great! God bless you
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1143. barbamz

Wow, nearly no convection to speak of in the whole US besides Texas (Texas!)? No wonder that it's very quiet today on our blog.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 64 Comments: 6724
1142. barbamz

Another tornado video from today taken in Arnhem/Netherlands. (See post#1108)
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 64 Comments: 6724
Quoting 1090. LargoFl:
well none of the models today show anything tropical hitting the US,whatever weather we get is from the fronts coming thru..normal fall here by me although later this week temps will be above average once again.
Not so fast. Still predicting 4 - 2 - 1 for the period Nov 8 through DEC. 12. I have designated this the New Primary Atlantic Hurricane Season. I base this on absolutely nothing. However, I am usually right. Be prepared.
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TROPICAL STORM SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013
100 PM PST SUN NOV 03 2013

SONIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER THE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION MAY BE BECOMING ELONGATED IN A
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT APPEARS THAT SONIA
HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY SINCE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THIS IS
LIKELY TO CAUSE SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE SONIA MAKES LANDFALL.
RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL AND SONIA IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY EVENING.

SONIA HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGUN TO ACCELERATE...WITH
AN INITIAL MOTION OF 015/12 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AHEAD OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND THE NHC FORECAST IS AGAIN ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM SONIA IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 21.4N 109.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 23.3N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 25.3N 106.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SONIA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013
100 PM PST SUN NOV 03 2013

...SONIA HEADING TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 109.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF CULIACAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 1137. Bluestorm5:


My mom's family still own the old plantation they have since 1700s and ton of acres of land around Moncks Corner as well so I got lot of land to observe the eclipse there without being annoyed by people. My aunt got a home on land I can stay at during the eclipse.

Btw, I'm considering minoring astronomy or at least take few classes. UNCA got a observation being built on top of this mountain campus is located on. It should be open early 2014 during winter :) The cool thing is that the roof opens, I think.

http://www.unca.edu/news-events/news/2012/4/unc-a sheville-partners-astronomy-club-asheville-build-s tar-gazing-lab-novel

http://news.unca.edu/faq-astronomy-laboratory-obs ervatory


I know a lawyer out west of Nashville with a shed that houses his telescopic equipment, and the roof rolls on/off. For an observatory, either the roof has some way to have an opening (most use shutters), or you have to have some way to protect the scopes from the weather. But yeah, you should be good then.

My father graduated from Case Western being the only person with a BS in Astronomy (he likes to brag he was first in his class, because Astronomy is the first to be announced on the stage at graduation). The math is killer. Not sure how it compares against meteorology, though.
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Quoting 1136. Astrometeor:


Well, you can't go to Hopkinsville (longest eclipse time in 2017) anymore, all the hotel rooms for that eclipse have been booked. But the next best slot is Nashville. Music City. I know I'll be in college, but I'll catch a flight back down to Nashville for the eclipse.


My mom's family still own the old plantation they have since 1700s and ton of acres of land around Moncks Corner as well so I got lot of land to observe the eclipse there without being annoyed by people. My aunt got a home on land I can stay at during the eclipse.

Btw, I'm considering minoring astronomy or at least take few classes. UNCA got a observation being built on top of this mountain campus is located on. It should be open early 2014 during winter :) The cool thing is that the roof opens, I think.

Link

Link
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Quoting 1134. Bluestorm5:
I didn't bother waking up early to see partial eclipse because it was only gonna be less than 5% of sun being covered and I'm sure mountains will block the sunrise during eclipse anyway. HOWEVER, the next TRUE eclipse (call total eclipse) is in 2017. It'll go right over my birth city of Charleston and my childhood home of Moncks Corner :) who knows where I'll be on August of 2017 though especially with me entering my first year of grad school somewhere in USA.



Well, you can't go to Hopkinsville (longest eclipse time in 2017) anymore, all the hotel rooms for that eclipse have been booked. But the next best slot is Nashville. Music City. I know I'll be in college, but I'll catch a flight back down to Nashville for the eclipse.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For those who are interested in historic tornadoes, here's a fantastic blog I stumbled across a couple days ago:
http://stormstalker.wordpress.com/

The guy writes long, descriptive, and very fascinating blogs about some of the most violent and historical tornadoes and tornado outbreaks of all time, such as the 1925 Tri-State tornado, The 1965 Palm Sunday Outbreak, and the 2011 Joplin tornado, just to name a few.

I would highly recommend checking it out, if you have the time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I didn't bother waking up early to see partial eclipse because it was only gonna be less than 5% of sun being covered and I'm sure mountains will block the sunrise during eclipse anyway. HOWEVER, the next TRUE eclipse (call total eclipse) is in 2017. It'll go right over my birth city of Charleston and my childhood home of Moncks Corner :) who knows where I'll be on August of 2017 though especially with me entering my first year of grad school somewhere in USA.

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1133. barbamz

Great performance of decoupling the low level circulation from Krosa.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 64 Comments: 6724
1132. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 34
3:00 AM JST November 4 2013
===================================

Chuuk waters

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 6.1N 153.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 6.7N 148.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #63
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM KROSA (T1329)
3:00 AM JST November 4 2013
==================================

Northern South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Krosa (996 hPa) located at 19.4N 113.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest slowly.

Gale Force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeast quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.1N 110.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Northern South China Sea
48 HRS: 16.4N 108.9E - Tropical Depression In Northern South China Sea
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1131. Dakster
Quoting 1129. hydrus:
I was born there in the 60,s. Raised there in the 70,s and 80,s..The entire state ( with a few exceptions )has changed drastically and for the worse...It will never be the same place that I grew up in..It was beautiful..There are still areas that have managed to avoid the effects of an exploding population and urban sprawl, but not many.


I know... I agree... I was born, raised, and still live here.

Some areas are still what I like to call 'old Florida'. But they too are dwindling fast.
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1129. hydrus
Quoting 1124. Dakster:


My .02 says you should look to move back then. As obviously you have not bonded with you current home. Just as if you no longer 'love' your current home, you should look to move.

I know sometimes it just isn't financially possible to do it right away, of course.
I was born there in the 60,s. Raised there in the 70,s and 80,s..The entire state ( with a few exceptions )has changed drastically and for the worse...It will never be the same place that I grew up in..It was beautiful..There are still areas that have managed to avoid the effects of an exploding population and urban sprawl, but not many.
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Scientists have revealed plans to examine temperature changes in the Arctic Ocean after a long-term study found the Greenland Sea is warming 10 times faster than the global ocean.

Scientists from Germany's Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) analysed temperature data from the Greenland Sea between 1950 and 2010.

Their results show that during the past 30 years water temperatures between two kilometres deep and the ocean floor have risen by 0.3 degrees Celsius.


Link
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Quoting 1116. hydrus:
More like a quadruple hit..
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1126. docrod
81F in KCB Florida. Glad that DST is over.

From the Key West NWS discussion
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1876...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 91 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON NOVEMBER 3RD...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 137 YEARS LATER. IN ADDITION...THIS HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 91 DEGREES IS THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED
IN KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY
WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
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1125. Pallis
Quoting 1117. hydrus:
That shot made me homesick..I grew up there.
It is not perfect here. It was a very chilly 62 this morning, and then the sun has been out all day. Hopefully the front will come back up to cloud things a bit and bring back the humidity. Miserable air quality, I can't wait for spring. You wouldn't recognize where you grew up anyways, they have destroyed everything from Marco to N. Tampa, and replaced it with urban sprawl and random ghettos.
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1124. Dakster
Quoting 1117. hydrus:
That shot made me homesick..I grew up there.


My .02 says you should look to move back then. As obviously you have not bonded with you current home. Just as if you no longer 'love' your current home, you should look to move.

I know sometimes it just isn't financially possible to do it right away, of course.
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1123. Dakster
I think taz means you should let it go, ignore it and move on...

Anyways, time to enjoy the beautiful fall day in Florida.
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Quoting 1121. FLWeatherFreak91:
Flagged?! Oh no, did I offend your ego? And you'll be looking for me? What does that mean lol.

The weather is OUTSTANDING in Florida today! Got my windows open with a brisk breeze coming through the house. So glad hurricane season went perfectly for most of us.



this went it go and move on no need too start any thing i would re move that post be for he sees it
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Quoting 1064. wunderkidcayman:

Oh yeah and you just got flagged
Flagged?! Oh no, did I offend your ego? And you'll be looking for me? What does that mean lol.

The weather is OUTSTANDING in Florida today! Got my windows open with a brisk breeze coming through the house. So glad hurricane season went perfectly for most of us.
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1120. hydrus
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img src="">

A lightning Composite of the T storm here in cayman last night.

Image credit to Courtney Platt
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1118. Dakster
Quoting 1106. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


active area coming into view could be an interesting week ahead


Any of them coming our way, Keep?
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1117. hydrus
Quoting 1100. Sfloridacat5:


Weather is perfect today (Sunny, Low humidity perfect temperature). I keep going outside just to feel this nice cool North wind (15 - 30 mph).

Here's Captiva Beach shot (Ft. Myers area). Strong current going from north to south down the beach.



That shot made me homesick..I grew up there.
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1116. hydrus
Quoting 1112. 62901IL:
I don't like the looks of this...a double hit for the Philippines....



More like a quadruple hit..
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Watching the Caribbean but it is more of a wait and see, not expecting a hurricane out of it at this point. I had some good thunderstorms overnight.

Turning to winter weather a cold front has gone pretty far south and is just north of me. Maybe some cooler weather? We'll see.
Member Since: March 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 264
1114. barbamz
Quoting 1110. GTstormChaserCaleb:
That's cool! Can't wait to go to Europe. Germany to see what is left of the Berlin Wall and the UK where I have some family. France to see the Eiffel Tower and Rome to see the Vatican City.


Hope this dream will come true for you, Caleb!

Off topic, but probably a very big sensation in the world of arts if this really is true (all over German media already; estimated value: $1.35bn): BBC, Nov 3: Nazi looted art 'found in Munich' - German media
Here another report in English by Deutsche Welle English:
German authorities reportedly discover 1,500 paintings seized by Nazis.
Edit: More details now available on Daily Mail.

And this shows the bad weather coming in for the night:

Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 64 Comments: 6724
Quoting 1107. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Seems to have lost some convection. I'll keep an eye on it this week as it makes its journey across the Atlantic and nears the islands, most likely won't amount to much due to strong westerly wind shear and dry air.



That would be like crossing the Saharan desert without a drop of water.
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1112. 62901IL
I don't like the looks of this...a double hit for the Philippines....



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1111. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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